“Rifts within elites and geopolitical conditions determined to a large extent the varying outcomes of uprisings.” — Tamirace Fakhoury, LAU associate professor of political science and international affairs
However, he also notes that “attempts at politicizing it and rivalry over leadership undermined the movement’s sustainability.” Similar problems have bedeviled the Secular Lebanon movement, which can be described as a loose coalition across the country’s political spectrum seeking to dismantle the sectarian system of government that has prevailed for so many decades. While the movement has occasionally been able to bring forth thousands of demonstrators into the street in support of its cause, inroads into
real change have been slow. “I can say that the secular subculture in Lebanon is growing, and this is positive,” says activist Mazen Abou Hamdan, cofounder of Freethought Lebanon. “There has been impressive results in the secular clubs in universities, as well as in several syndicates and even in municipalities.” But the movement still faces obstacles. Abou Hamdan identifies a lack of structure and unity as the central issue, more specifically “infiltration of activist decision circles by sectarian parties, ideological differences between different secular groups and personal differences over who would take leadership.” According to Salloukh, Secular Lebanon’s difficulties may be best explained in terms resonant with the ‘political opportunity structure’ theory. “The sectarian system undergirded by a complex ensemble of institutional, clientelist and discursive practices that sustain the ideological hegemony of sectarianism in postwar Lebanon,” he says. “More importantly, this ensemble shapes peoples’ incentive structures in a manner conducive to the reproduction of sectarian modes of identification and mobilization.” In the end, this means that “when anti- or cross-sectarian movements emerge, they tend to be besieged by this ensemble” and ultimately fail to reach their goals. As this magazine goes to print, social movements continue to play a formative role in politics and society across the globe, from the #MeToo campaign against sexual harassment, to the protests roiling Iran’s streets, to public demonstrations against the ruling regime in Venezuela, among many other examples. Whether they individually succeed or fail, people’s passion for change and a better society lives on.
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by revisionist rival regional powers, are among the major causes for setbacks,” points out Salamey. Closer to home in Lebanon, the country has experienced a number of social movements over the past few years that provide ample food for thought about their successes or failures, of which the You Stink movement is only the most notable recent example. “Despite its spontaneity, the movement — which was an unprecedented popular mobilization by civil society groups — succeeded in raising public awareness and forced the decentralization of trash management in favor of municipalities,” says Salamey.
VOLUME 19 | issue nº 3 | Winter 2018
of the Institute for Social Justice and Conflict Resolution, specific external conditions ensured the opening of opportunity for initial political action in the case of the Arab revolts. “The movements’ [initial] success can mostly be attributed to globalization and declining barriers between countries and experiences,” he says. In this case, “Youth emerged as global citizens equipped with communication technologies, with the ability to mobilize and inflict greater pressure against dominant powers.” Outside observers at the time made much of the apparent central role of social media in mobilizing Arab citizens in the cause of drastic political change, leading some to claim that the internet has fundamentally changed the relationship between the ruler and the ruled. In Fakhoury’s view, however, the place of such media in contemporary protest cycles is somewhat more nuanced. “Social media is not a game changer by itself but rather a discursive tool and opportunity to attract more participants and sympathizers that some social movements use better than others,” she says. “It can also be used, however, by autocratic regimes to crackdown on opponents.” And indeed, while such highly visible protest moments such as the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the Color Revolutions in Eastern Europe have contributed to the sense that campaigns for social change must inevitably succeed, countervailing factors often present formidable obstacles. For instance, Middle Eastern countries that did not, in 2011, enjoy the four conditions that Salloukh identifies in Tunisia have seen quite different outcomes from the Tunisian one. “Deeply entrenched communitarian divisions, stimulated and manipulated