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Lancaster City Council

Phase 1: Retail Development Strategy Final Report

January 2014

Address: Tel: E-Mail: Web:

Quay West at MediaCityUK, Trafford Wharf Road, Trafford Park, Manchester, M17 1HH 0161 872 3223 planners.manchester@wyg.com www.wyg.com


Contents Page

1.0

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1

2.0

Current and Emerging Retail Trends ................................................................................................ 3

3.0

Planning Policy Context .................................................................................................................. 15

4.0

Original Market Research ................................................................................................................ 23

5.0

Population and Expenditure ............................................................................................................ 41

6.0

Capacity in Existing Centres ............................................................................................................ 49

7.0

Retail Capacity (Scenario 1) Employment-Led Growth ...................................................................... 71

8.0

Recommendations and Future Retail Strategy .................................................................................. 77

Appendix 1: NEMS Household Survey Appendix 2: Statistical Retail Tables – Population Growth (Baseline) Appendix 3: Statistical Retail Tables – Population Growth (Scenario 1) Employment Led

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1.0 Introduction Instruction 1.01

WYG Planning (‘WYG’) was commissioned by Lancaster City Council (LCC) in July 2013 to undertake a City-wide Retail Capacity and Development Strategy. The key purpose of this Study is to assist in the formulation of future development plan policy, as well as providing baseline information to assist in the determination of planning applications for retail development. The Study updates and supersedes parts of the previous Lancaster Retail Study completed by WYG in 2006.

1.02

The study explores retail need and capacity over the period to 2031 and provides an up to date review of the performance of the three main town centres across the City. This is of particular importance given the downturn in the UK economy since the reporting of the 2006 Study which has had a notable impact on the retail and leisure sectors.

1.03

The Study includes new empirical research, with a shopping survey of 1,700 households being undertaken by NEMS Market Research Limited in April 2013. The Study Area for the survey comprises thirteen zones which are based on postcode areas grouped around one or more of the existing main town and city centres. The Study Area is comparable to that adopted by the 2006 Retail Study, which covers Lancaster, parts of South Lakeland, Barrow and Eden to the north; and parts of Wyre, Ribble Valley, Preston and Craven to the south and east of Lancaster. There have been changes to the previous zones adopted in 2006. However, the principle zones covering Lancaster have remaining unchanged. The Retail Strategy also draws upon current Experian population and expenditure data (published September 2012) in order to establish the up to date position with regard to both convenience and comparison goods capacity.

Structure of Report 1.04

Our report is structured as follows:



Section 2 provides a context for the Retail Study by providing an overview of key retail trends;



Section 3 considers the up to date position in respect of relevant retail and town centre planning policy;



Section 4 sets out a review of the findings of the household survey results and considers changes to local shopping patterns that have occurred since 2006;



Section 5 sets out current and future population and expenditure levels within the Study Area;



Section 6 provides our assessment of the quantitative and qualitative need for further convenience and comparison goods floorspace over the assessment period;

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Section 7 considers future retail capacity based on the employment led population forecasts driven from the results of the Housing Requirements Study; and



Section 8 provides our recommendations in respect of the Council’s future retail and leisure strategy.

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2.0 Current and Emerging Retail Trends Introduction 2.01

The retail property landscape across the UK has evolved significantly over the past 50 years, from post-war redevelopment in town centres, through to the emergence of retail warehouse parks and out-of-town regional shopping malls. For most of this period, the retail sector has experienced considerable expenditure growth, which has been attributed to a number of factors, including greater disposable income, availability of credit, new technology and a general overall increase in our standard of living. However, recent economic conditions have had a clear impact on expenditure and per capita convenience goods spending has actually reduced in recent years. The way in which goods are purchased has also altered due to the increased popularity of ‘e-tailing’ as well as emerging forms such ‘m-retailing’ and ‘omni’ channel retailing.

2.02

The retail market and the need for new development is continually evolving as a result of numerous factors including demographics, consumer demands, car ownership, planning policy and technological advancements, such as e-tailing. The share of retail spending has undergone a significant shift in the decade since 2002, with Verdict identifying that town centre spending declined from 47.7% of overall spend to 39.9% of overall spend at 2012. In contrast, spending in out of centre locations has increased over the same period by 2.1% and non-store locations by 6.6%1. These changes have had a major impact on the format and location of retail and leisure floorspace, which has led to recent Governments reaffirming their commitment to the ‘town centre first’ policy approach which is now outlined in the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (March 2012).

Current Retail Picture 2.03

Recent research undertaken by Colliers2 provides information on recent trends, together with forecasts for the future of retailing in the UK. The findings confirm that the retail sector has been significantly affected by the wider economic climate and there is considerable uncertainty about the strength and durability of future growth. It is noted that whilst sales volumes and footfall were high at the start of 2011, the UK economy was close to a double dip recession in the latter months of 2011 and the retail market has since continued to fluctuate over the last 12 months. With significant reduction in Government spending impacting on economic growth, the UK unemployment rate was recorded at 7.6% in September 2013 and is now showing signs of improvement.

1 2

‘UK Out of Town Retailing,’ Verdict Datamonitor, April 2012 ‘National Retail Barometer: Summer 2013,’ Colliers, August 2013

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2.04

These factors have had a significant impact on the public’s general confidence, thereby reducing their propensity to spend their earnings on retail goods. Since 2010 there have also been increases in taxation (for example in VAT, national insurance contributions and capital gains tax) which also impact upon households’ spending. Furthermore, inflation has risen to a level beyond average earnings growth and, at the time of reporting, the national inflation rate is 2.7% (August 2013). The delay in reviewing business rates is also identified in both the Portas3 and Grimsey Reviews4 as a key factor affecting the success of many operators, with the Grimsey Review in particular recommending that the 2015 business rates revaluation to realign property values should be reintroduced immediately and business rates should be frozen from 2014.

2.05

The economic conditions have resulted in significant structural changes to the high street in recent years whereby the pressure on retailers to remain solvent has meant that many are showing increased signs of caution in investment decisions. In particular, retailers are rationalising their physical store portfolios by reducing their number of stores, abandoning their representation in weaker centres and concentrating on acquiring sites in city centres and major regional shopping centres. The Local Data Company5 notes in the Grimsey Report that the national vacancy rate equates to over 22,000 empty shops in the top 650 town centres. The Centre for Retail Research also predicts that overall store numbers are expected to fall by 61,930 (-22.0%) between 2012 and 2018, with the main impact to be upon non-food stores. The report also estimates that 316,000 people will become unemployed, permanently or temporarily, as a result of these store closures6.

2.06

To address this, many retailers are re-negotiating their lease terms with landlords in order to enable them to switch from quarterly rents to monthly agreements, with several high street firms (including Monsoon and New Look) trying to ease the cash flow burden of paying rent three months in advance. Furthermore, some retailers are finding it increasingly difficult to justify being represented in every town in the UK and in less profitable markets. As a consequence, demand has reduced considerably for ‘poorer quality premises’ in secondary locations and in many smaller towns with a commensurate drop in value (and often rent). Large cities and towns such as Lancaster are likely to suffer less compared to smaller centres, given that they provide an enhanced choice for customers and offer the greater retail and leisure (and tourist) ‘experience’ that consumers increasingly desire. In terms of prime retail rental values, Colliers7 note that national rates fell by an average of -0.9% in 2011 and by a further -1.2% in 2012, with the average national prime retail rent now being £110 per sq.ft. Colliers also reports that there is a marked regional variation in the rental rates, with London the only region

3 4 5 6 7

‘The Portas Review,’ December 2011 ‘The Grimsey Review – An Alternative Future for the High Street,’ September 2013 ‘The Grimsey Review – An Alternative Future for the High Street,’ September 2013 ‘Retail Futures 2018,’ Centre for Retail Research, May 2013 Ibid

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to achieve rental growth over the 12 months to June 2012. In contrast, several other regions experienced significant reductions in their average prime rental values during the 12 month period to June 2012, notably Wales (-8.4%), the East Midlands (-5.7%), West Midlands (-3.7%), North West (2.1%) and Yorkshire and the Humber (-1.8%). However, such reductions are a positive response to market conditions and are natural response to current market conditions.

2.07

In summary, there has been a marked polarisation and divergence in retailer spending, characterised by diminishing demand for secondary premises in smaller peripheral centres and increasing interest for well located and appropriately configured floorspace in key centres. It is evident that whilst Central London, regional city centres and regional shopping malls are relatively stable as these are location that are still viable due to critical mass, a significant number of small and medium sized towns will need to implement innovative ideas in order to improve spending rates and reduce trade leakage.

2.08

Experian, which monitors and forecasts retail consumer expenditure in the UK, has reviewed its forecast growth rates for both convenience and comparison goods expenditure in recent years. Experian’s8 forecast annual per capita convenience goods growth rate is now -0.6% at 2013, -0.3% at 2014 and +0.1% at 2015. Forecast annual per capita comparison goods growth rates are more positive than in previous years, with growth of +3.2% forecast at 2013, +2.3% at 2014 and +2.8% at 2015 and 2.9% thereafter. Whilst these increased forecasts are encouraging and show signs that confidence in spending is returning, it is evident that these forecast growth rates are still well below the annual growth (4% to 6%) which was recorded prior to the economic downturn but do show increased signs of stabilisation.

2.09

Despite the past difficulties outlined above and the general decline in the comparison goods sector, other specific types of goods continue to perform well. The market for recreational goods has, on the whole, performed well in recent years, with healthy growth attributed to supermarket sales together with the growing popularity of online shopping, which continues to see an increase in sales year-onyear. However, the manner in which such purchases are made has changed considerably, with the increasing popularity of the internet to purchase books and music having a notable impact on the composition of town centres, with such stores all but disappearing from the high street. Other businesses have experienced growth in the last two years, with a +12.4% increase (over 1,100 stores) in ‘value-related retailing’ outlets, including second-hand, discount and charity shops. The Grimsey Review9 also makes reference to the expansion of pawnbrokers, pay-day lenders and betting shops which have collectively experienced a 17% growth in the number of outlets since 2011.

8

Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 11, October 2013

9

‘The Grimsey Review – An Alternative Future for the High Street,’ September 2013

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Trends in Comparison Goods Shopping 2.10

Whilst it is not anticipated that growth in retail spending over the next ten years will mirror that achieved after the turn of the millennium, there is expected to be some growth in comparison goods expenditure in coming years. Consequently, there is an increasing focus from retailers on achieving more efficient use of their floorspace, particularly given the recent poor performance of certain national multiples, many of which have been affected by the significant increase in e-tailing and increases in rental levels secured before 2008. As a result of the current economic climate, retailers are more reluctant to commit to new development than they have been in previous decades. Instead, they are more selective and are holding out for accommodation that is appropriate both in terms of location and the type of premises provided. Indeed, retailers are seeking to occupy larger units in order to achieve more efficient use of floorspace and attract shoppers from a wider area. These larger floor plates enable operators to provide a greater range of goods; for example, in 2011, Primark opened one million sq.ft of new retail space.

2.11

International market conditions and price deflation in some key sectors have also meant that many high street names are becoming increasingly vulnerable to takeover. This is being pursued through disposals, company voluntary administrations (CVAs), informal arrangements with landlords, lease expiries and break options. More generally, whilst there is likely to be continued demand for larger, modern retail units in the future, increased sensitivity over future viability will mean a cautious approach to new investment for many key national retailers. Marginal locations within centres will increasingly be rejected. Many national retailers, who would have previously considered smaller/lower order centres in order to increase their market share, are now assessing their future strategies given the ongoing downturn in the economy. Consequently, many investment decisions will be influenced by the scale of commitment from other retailers; developers will increasingly need to promote large town centre redevelopment schemes if they are to attract high quality retailers.

Trends in Food Retailing 2.12

In the aftermath of the growth in the number of edge and out of centre large format supermarkets during the 1990s, development of such facilities is now more limited due to stricter planning laws (following the publication of PPS4 and subsequently the NPPF) and a lack of suitable sites. As a result, the national multiples in the food retailing sector are finding a range of other measures to improve their market share. These include:



Offering a wider product range, such as financial and insurance products, petrol and non-food goods; 6

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Developing a wide range of retail models, for example small-format convenience stores in town centres (e.g. Sainsbury’s Local, Tesco Express), smaller supermarkets mostly in town centres (e.g. Tesco Metro), superstores (e.g. Tesco) and hypermarkets (e.g. Tesco Extra, Asda Supercentres);

2.13



Extended opening hours;



Offering cheap products and no-frills service;



Providing an attractive and powerful brand image; and



Offering a home delivery service.

Mintel10 identifies that the recession – allied with a period of higher inflation – has had an impact on consumer behaviour and the wider dynamics of grocery retailing. Price, or specifically value, is now identified as the key issue for consumers and more and more shoppers are assessing whether purchases represent value for money. Shoppers now realise that they are able to ‘trade down’ and switch to own-label ranges to save money without sacrificing on quality. Indeed, customers are mixing value and premium in the same basket. It is noted that as weekly food budgets fall and consumers alter their shopping habits, growth will be limited and the battle for market share will intensify further. Winning a share of consumer spend will require more than low prices, with shoppers increasingly seeking to source high-quality, good value food.

2.14

Verdict also states that changing UK demographics are having a major impact on the food and grocery sector. For example, there has been a rise in single occupancy young professional households who are ‘time poor’ and relatively ‘cash rich’. Though their baskets might be small, they tend to buy higher value items, therefore providing an opportunity to boost volume and value growth. Elsewhere, an ageing population profile is leading to a rise in time rich consumers who are likely to make more frequent small trips rather than do large weekly shops. The contrasting requirements of these markets means that retailers are seeking to open a variety of stores with a particular current focus on small convenience stores. Verdict indicates that, as the race for space intensifies, format flexibility will be essential.

2.15

Verdict11 estimates that the food and grocery sector will be worth £130.0 billion in 2011, equating to annual growth of 3.2%, representing 43.7% of total retail spend. The four key supermarket chains in the UK have respective market shares of 31.0% (Tesco), 17.5% (Asda), 16.5% (Sainsbury’s) and 11.4% (Morrisons)12. National multiple retailers, including the Co-operative Food (6.8%), Waitrose (4.7%) and Aldi (2.9%), represent a total grocery market share of 97.8%.

10 11 12

‘Food & Drink Retailing,’ Mintel, March 2013 Ibid ‘Grocery Market Share UK’, Kantar Worldpanel, 9th October 2012

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2.16

More recently, there has been a slowdown in the growth plans of the majority of the principal supermarket operators. Tesco, for example, has indicated that its net new space growth in 2012 will be 38% lower than in 2011, with the company instead focusing on developing medium size units and investing around £1 billion on improving its current stores. Asda is the second largest supermarket retailer in the UK, with more than 500 stores nationwide. In 2011, Asda opened 22 new stores and acquired 193 Netto stores which allowed the company to increase its smaller store portfolio. However, as a result of Competition Commission laws, it was later required to sell 47 of the stores to other retailers, including Morrisons. Asda has recently focused investment on its smallest store formats (known as Asda Supermarket), with the company having aspirations to deliver 250 such stores by 2015. Morrisons intend to deliver 2.5 million sq.ft of new retail floorspace by 2013/2014, both through the continued development of large foodstore schemes and the new small scale M-Local convenience format store. Due to the success of the initial trials, Morrisons now intend to open 50 additional M-Local stores by 2013/2014. The discount supermarket chain Aldi made a pre-tax profit of £57.8m in 2011, when it opened 29 new UK stores. It is currently seeking to develop a further 40 stores by the end of 2013, thus bringing its total number of UK stores to over 500.

2.17

The role of supermarkets also continues to develop, with the large operators now offering a greater diversity of goods and services, via a larger number of formats and locations. Food and non-food sales are also increasingly being driven by large supermarket growth, with half of town centres now competing with five or more supermarkets within a two mile radius13. Whilst the exact impacts which will arise from the opening of a new supermarket are dependent on local circumstances, BCSC notes that there has been a significant decline in the number of independent food retailers over recent years, including a reduction of 45% between 1996 and 2007 in the number of greengrocers. Over the same time period the market share of total retail sales secured by supermarkets has increased from 38% to 42%.

Out of Centre 2.18

Despite the ‘town centre first’ planning policies which have been adopted by recent Governments, research undertaken by Verdict14 indicates that between 2007 and 2012, the amount of out of centre floorspace increased by 23%. However, in very recent years, Colliers notes that the demand for out of centre representation has been limited, with those retailers seeking to acquire stores having a pick of vacant stock which has been made available through the administration of MFI (in November 2008), Land of Leather (in January 2009) and Focus DIY (in May 2011), amongst others. However,

13 14

‘What Does the Future Hold for Town Centres?’, BCSC, September 2011 ‘UK Out of Town Retailing’, Verdict Datamonitor, April 2012

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only five major out-of-town retailers have failed since June 2011, these being Allied Carpets, Clintons, Comet, GAME and Peacocks.

2.19

The national average vacancy rate in out of centre retail warehouses in 2012 is 3.9%, an increase of 0.3% since 2011. Some of the voids created by the administrations remain un-let and the flooding of the market with so much unwanted space has acted to reduce rents. Retailers who have had their pick of the best stores include Dunelm, Pets at Home, Dreams, Matalan, Dixons Group, Go Outdoors, B&M, Mothercare, Next Home and TK Maxx.

2.20

Looking forward, Colliers indicates that whilst out of centre locations have witnessed low levels of development during the last two years, it is estimated that one million sq.ft of new space is to be completed in 2012. There are also an increasing number of retailers acquiring larger stores, including several department-store type format operators including John Lewis Home, M&S and Primark. The large out of centre Oakgate scheme which was recently approved by the City of York Council, for example, will accommodate M&S, John Lewis and Next stores.

Shopping Centre Development 2.21

It is evident that shopping centre retail development is starting to see signs of progress following 4 years of a virtual standstill with the British Council of Shopping Centres (BCSC) (2013) showing that 2013 has seen a significant improvement on 2012 in terms of new centres opening. Colliers suggests that the UK may never see a return to the level of shopping centre openings that was evident in recent times. The Trinity development in Leeds City Centre opened in March 2013 with 90% of the units pre-let was the most widely anticipated mall opening in 2013, however, other schemes (Whiteley Village and Jubilee Place) and extensions also opened in 2013 showing improved confidence in the retail market. In contrast to the average level of completions over the last five years (3.9 million sq.ft per annum), 2013 level of shopping centre development is by comparison very modest at 1.5 mill sq.ft. In 2008, for example, almost 8 million sq.ft of new floorspace opened across 14 new schemes nationwide. BCSC estimate that 2014 and 2015 will show an improvement on the limited level of activity seen in 2012, and by 2016 mall openings will exceed 2011 levels when delayed projects such as Bradford (Westfield), Bracknell Northern Quarter are scheduled to open, and it is expected that around 3 million sq.ft of floorspace will be delivered per year which exceeds 2011 levels, demonstrating increased confidence in delivering new floorspace.

2.22

Despite a more confident mood in recent times, viability is still considered to be challenging. There are three types of scheme which may be successfully delivered in the current challenging economic climate. The first of these will be where a town has a large, affluent catchment and an acknowledged

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undersupply of retail floorspace in both town centre and out-of-town locations. The second scenario relates to schemes which were very close to happening before the recession took hold, which may be revised to better meet the current needs of the market. Barnsley, Macclesfield, Bradford and Lichfield are examples of such schemes, and from our own involvement, we can confirm that both Bradford and Macclesfield are now being actively promoted after a difficult period due to increased confidence in the retail market. The third opportunity relates to development where the key anchor is a foodstore and, as a result, demand remains strong due to increased footfall.

2.23

Proposed schemes which will conform to one of these models are considered to be few and far between, and for development to begin again in earnest, it will be necessary for marked improvements in retailer demand, a strengthening of rental levels, further improvement in the investment market and, critically, the availability of finance at viable levels to occur. For those towns without an oversupply of floorspace and with sites which can be brought forward without excessive levels of cost, some development may be able to be brought forward within the next five years. However, such opportunities may be the exception rather than the rule.

2.24

In addition to their retail offer, consumers are increasingly travelling to larger centres for their overall experience and to use the leisure facilities. Colliers notes that the largest destinations draw from a wide catchment, hence the need to retain consumers for as long as possible. In the past, it was recognised that non-retail uses typically occupied less than 10% of the space, though this has increased in recent schemes, including Westfield in Stratford where catering and leisure units occupy over 20% of the space. The Grimsey Review also noted that town centre and high street plans must seek to create a complete community hub which can incorporate a variety of units, including housing, education, and leisure uses, as well as developing day time, evening and night time cultures. Therefore successful shopping developments need to ensure they comprise a wider variety of uses which are not necessarily reliant on comparison goods floorspace, but also that the floorspace is designed with flexibility to ensure that it can respond promptly to changes in market

Growth in E-tailing (‘E-commerce’) 2.25

Many consumers who previously shopped in town centres and at retail parks are now using the internet for some of their purchases. It is estimated that internet sales accounted for 9.7% of all UK retail spending at August 201315 and this trend is set to continue. Experian forecast that internet sales (non store) accounted for 12.3% of all UK retail spending at 201316 and Experian17 predicting that all non-store purchases will account for 20.5% of total retail expenditure at 2028. Experian estimates

15

‘Retail Sales’, Office for National Statistics, August 2013 ‘Retail Sales’, Office for National Statistics, August 2013 17 Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 11, October 2013 16

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non-store sales in the UK is estimated £39.5 billion in 2013, with internet sales at £32.1bn and non internet sales (mail order, market, catalogue) at £7.3bn.18

2.26

The rise in recent years of e-commerce has had a major impact upon retailers, developers and investors alike, with the top 10 e-retailers in 2012 including Amazon UK (16%), Shop Direct (5%), and Next (4%)19. As access to the internet/online shopping continues to grow through digital televisions, tablets and mobile phones, proportionally less money is anticipated to be spent on the high street or at retail parks. Figure 2.1: Internet Sales as a Proportion of All Retailing 12.0% 10.9% 10.0% 9.7% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.3% 2.0% Internet sales as a proportion of all retailing

0.0%

2.27 Source: ‘Retail Sales,’ Office for National Statistics, August 2013

2.28

The growth in internet as a sales medium has been enabled by the increase in access to the internet by households, which has reportedly20 risen from 57% at 2006, to 77% at 2011, 80% at 2012 and 83% in 2013. A total of 21 million households in Great Britain now have internet access, an increase of 7.1 million since 2006. Experian (2013) identify that there are 52.7% internet users in the UK, representing 84.1% of the population.

18 19 20

‘E-Commerce,’ Mintel, July 2013 ‘E-Commerce,’ Mintel, July 2013 ‘Statistical Bulletin: Internet Access Households and Individuals’, Office for National Statistics, August 2013

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2.29

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data21 indicates that the number of people using the internet to purchase goods continues to rise, with 72% of the UK population purchasing products over the internet in 2013, compared to 53% in 2008. The most popular online purchases were clothes/sports goods, with 47% of internet users buying these items. In addition, 44% of users bought household goods and 21% bought food or groceries. Additional research conducted by the Interactive Media in Retail Group (IMRG) and analysts Capgemini22 indicates that British shoppers spent £5.8 billion online in August 2012, a year-on-year growth of 11%. IMRG also states that all key retail sectors experienced improvements in sales between July 2011 and July 2012, particularly in the health and beauty (+30%), electrical (+30%) and gifts (+27%) sectors.

2.30

In addition, the proportion of households with access to the internet is expected to increase further over the coming years, alongside the growth in mobile phone and tablets with access via the new 4G spectrum. The ONS states that access to the internet using a mobile phone more than doubled between 2010 and 2013, from 24% to 53%. This has supported the strong growth recorded, together with improved consumer confidence in the security of online payment, deliveries and heavy demand for expensive electrical products available online. The option of using the internet to ‘click and collect’ in-store is also increasing in popularity, with the service accounting for a fifth of John Lewis internet orders. Online spending continues to be the key growth opportunity for national and independent retailers, accounting for increasing proportions of total sales. Such multi-channelling development strategies are actually driving demand for traditional outlets, whereby retailers are using bricks and mortar store as a showroom for their products with service locations for collection and drop off points for their online orders.

2.31

With regard to foodstore operators, food accounts for 20.5% of all internet sales, which equates to 3.1% of all food retailing23. Verdict’s research identifies that, with the exception of Morrisons (subject to a deal with Ocado to allow them to trade online), major retailers have seen their online business grow as online shopping has increased and, as a result, the likes of Asda and Sainsbury’s have improved their geographical coverage and capacity. In particular, online sales at Tesco currently exceed £2 billion, with Colliers noting that the operator has a reported 48% online grocery market share. The grocery market is focusing on multi-channel retailing as a main driver to increased sales, with Tesco’s expansion into click and collect format for its non-food items at 600 stores and Sainsbury’s selling over 15,000 products online for local pick up or delivery, as well as Waitrose operating a very successful click and collect system. However, at present foodstore operators prefer to opt to distribute from stores rather than from centralised warehouses (commonly referred to as dark stores). However, this may change over time if pressure on stores becomes too much whereby

21 22 23

‘Statistical Bulletin: Internet Access Households and Individuals’, Office for National Statistics, August 2013 ‘IMRG Capgemini E-retail Sales Index’, September 2012 ‘Shop Expansion and the Internet’, CBRE, May 2012

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operators may decide to move to centralised warehousing which would ultimately reduce demand for retail floorspace.

2.32

It is evident that internet shopping as a whole is having an impact upon traditional high streets, in light of increased competition and lower prices. Consequently, there is a possibility that online retailing will put some pressure on retail rental growth over the next five to ten years. However, it will be difficult to understand the true impact as the current economic downturn is also having a significant impact on rental levels. Having said that, it would appear that the smaller the centre, the greater the impact will be felt from online retailing. Within small shopping centres (sized between 5,000 sq.m and 20,000 sq.m), including those in market towns, it is likely that the growth of online shopping could reduce turnover notwithstanding any future growth in disposable income.

2.33

Despite some variance in the estimated future growth of online shopping, it is clear that e-tailing will not replace the ‘shopping experience’ as shopping is a social activity. In this regard, retailers are already adopting innovative approaches to encourage people to visit their store through ‘try before you buy’ concepts. For example, Ellis Bingham has installed Vertical Chill indoor ice climbing walls at five stores for customers to try equipment and to interact with products. For successful retailers, online selling provides an additional route to the market. Online retailers benefit from demand generated through physical channels whilst high-street outlets can benefit from reaching a wider customer base through the internet as well as through actual footfall. Those retailers who are likely to have a healthy future are those who are able to combine a strong high street presence with an interesting and closely related e-tail offer this can only be achieved through a well considered multichannelling strategy.

Conclusion

2.34

In conclusion the retail market has undergone significant changes in recent years, which has been significantly affected by the wider economic conditions facing the UK, which has lead to a marked decline in established town centre as well as other retail formats. This has principally been caused by the decline in available expenditure due to suppressed disposable incomes. However, 2013 has seen an increase in confidence mainly driven by an improved economic outlook driven by improved employment and available of credit which has seen improved expenditure growth rates forecast moving forward, although still below pre-recession levels they are significantly higher than those recorded over the last 3 to 4 years. The growth in online sales has also impinged on the need for new tangible floorspace in recent years, however with improved growth forecast and improving retailing sales coupled with the retail industry embracing innovative multi-channelling strategies. This provides an opportunity for town centres to widen their audience in the future. To deliver this it will be critical 13

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that town centres are flexible enough to both embrace digital solutions whilst also providing appropriate and well managed retail floorspace that can showcase products and services. Only by adopting a well considered holistic strategy will the future vitality and viability be secured.

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3.0 Planning Policy Context Introduction 3.01

Given that this study seeks to provide important evidence to assist in the production of the Lancaster Local Plan, it is important to review key policy advice and explore how the current and emerging national planning documentation may impact upon the content of Local Plan policy.

National Planning Policy Framework 3.02

The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published on 27th March 2012. The Framework replaces all former Planning Policy Statements, Planning Policy Guidance Notes and some Circulars with this single consolidated document. While the NPPF supersedes PPS4, the PPS4 Practice Guidance on need, impact and the sequential approach has not been withdrawn and remains of some relevance.

3.03

The main theme of the NPPF is that there should be ‘a presumption in favour of sustainable development’. In terms of plan-making, it is stated that local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area, with an emphasis on Local Plans having sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change.

3.04

In terms of economic development, it is set out within the NPPF’s core principles that planning should proactively drive and support economic development to deliver the homes, business and industrial units, infrastructure and thriving local places that the country needs. It is emphasised that every effort should be made to objectively identify and then meet the business and other development needs of an area, with positive responses made to wider opportunities for growth.

3.05

The NPPF stresses the Government’s commitment to securing economic growth in order to create jobs and prosperity, with paragraph 17 stating that the planning system should do everything it can to support sustainable economic growth.

3.06

Paragraph 19 indicates that planning should operate to encourage and not to act as an impediment to sustainable growth, and that significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth through the planning system. The NPPF seeks to ensure that Local Planning authorities plan proactively to meet the development needs of business and support an economy fit for the 21st century.

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3.07

The NPPF still recognises the need to promote the vitality and viability of towns and cities through the promotion of competition and growth management during the plan period. Paragraph 23 of the NPPF provides guidance for local planning authorities in drawing up Local Plans, it indicates that they should:



recognise town centres as the heart of their communities and pursue policies to support their vitality and viability;



define a network and hierarchy of centres that is resilient to anticipated future economic changes;



define the extent of town centres and primary shopping areas, based on a clear definition of primary and secondary frontages in designated centres, and set policies that make clear which uses will be permitted in such locations;



promote competitive town centres that provide customer choice and a diverse retail offer and which reflect the individuality of town centres;



retain and enhance existing markets and, where appropriate, re-introduce or create new ones, ensuring that markets remain attractive and competitive;



allocate a range of suitable sites to meet the scale and type of retail, leisure, commercial, office, tourism, cultural, community and residential development needed in town centre. It is important that needs for retail, leisure, office and other main town centre uses are met in full and are not compromised by limited site availability. Local planning authorities should therefore undertake an assessment of the need to expand town centres to ensure a sufficient supply of suitable sites;



allocate appropriate edge of centre sites for main town centre uses that are well connected to the town centre where suitable and viable town centre sites are not available. If sufficient edge of centre sites cannot be identified, set policies for meeting the identified needs in other accessible locations that are well connected to the town centre;



set policies for the consideration of proposals for main town centre uses which cannot be accommodated in or adjacent to town centres;



recognise that residential development can play an important role in ensuring the vitality of centres and set out policies to encourage residential development on appropriate sites; and



where town centres are in decline, local planning authorities should plan positively for their future to encourage economic activity.

3.08

Paragraph 23 also indicates that needs for retail, leisure, office and other main town centre uses should be met in full and should not be compromised by limited site availability.

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3.09

Paragraph 24 requires local planning authorities to adopt a sequential approach to the consideration of planning applications for main town centre uses that are not in an existing centre or in accordance with an up to date Local Plan.

3.10

Paragraph 26 indicates that Local Planning authorities should require an impact assessment for retail, leisure and office development outside of town centres which are not in accordance with an up to date Local Plan and if the development is over a proportionate, locally set threshold. Where there is no locally defined threshold, the default threshold will be 2,500 sq.m.

3.11

The NPPF also recognises that retail activity should still, where possible, be focused in existing town centres. Retail and leisure proposals which cannot be accommodated in or adjacent to the town centre will have to satisfy a dual impact test and the sequential test.

Saved Policies of the Lancaster District Local Plan

3.12

The Lancaster District Local Plan was adopted in 2004, however, following the Direction of the Secretary of State some of the policies were saved in 2007 and many have been replaced by policies in the Core Strategy in 2008. However some of the policies from the local plan are still saved and relevant. Saved Policy S1 of the Local Plan has been part superseded by the Core Strategy in terms of the hierarchy of centres. This policy states that new shopping development, other than small local shops, village shops, and farm shops will be permitted only within the city, district and local centres identified on the local plan proposals map.

3.13

Saved Policy S4 of the Local Plan identifies the primary frontages in Lancaster city centre within which A1 retail will remain the dominant use and other key retail frontages within which A1 retail and A3 (food and drink) uses will remain the dominant use. Policy S5 goes on to state the criteria which must be satisfied for the change of use of ground floor premises to A1 (financial and professional service) uses to be permitted within the primary retail frontages in Lancaster city centre and within other key frontages identified on the local plan proposals map. Policy S7 states the criteria which must be satisfied for the change of use of ground floor premises to A3 (food and drink) uses to be permitted within the primary retail frontages in Lancaster city centre and within other key frontages identified on the local plan proposals map.

3.14

Similarly, Saved Policy S9 relates to the protected retail frontages in Morecambe town centre and Saved Policy S12 relates to protected retail frontages in Carnforth town centre.

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3.15

Saved Policy S15 relates to proposals for small shops and shopping parades and states that in Lancaster, Morecambe and Carnforth such proposals will be permitted where they have a strictly local catchment and do not have an adverse effect on the overall vitality and viability of existing shopping centres.

Lancaster Core Strategy (2003-2021)

3.16

The Lancaster Core Strategy was adopted in July 2008. The Core Strategy (CS) sets out a spatial vision for District up to 2021 and the strategy to achieve this vision.

3.17

Policy SC2 of the Core Strategy states that development should be focused where it will support the vitality of existing settlements, regenerate areas of need and minimise the need for travel. It is stated that over the plan period, 98% of new retail floorspace will be accommodated within the existing urban area of Lancaster, Morecambe, Heysham and Carnforth. The policy states that the distribution of development will reflect the different roles of these settlements within the regional hierarchy of the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). However, it should be noted that since the adoption of the Core Strategy, the RSS has been revoked.

3.18

Policy ER2 sets out a number of Regeneration Priority Areas in the District. Central Morecambe is identified as a Regeneration Priority Area of sub-regional importance. It is stated that central Morecambe will be reinvented as a visitor destination through tourism, housing renewal and heritage led regeneration. Central Lancaster is identified as a Regeneration Priority Area of local importance and it is stated that central Lancaster will be strengthened as a shopping destination, enhanced as a historic city visitor attraction with a restored and enhanced historic environment. Carnforth is also identified as a Regeneration Priority Area of local importance and it is stated that the centre will be developed as a rural service centre with the development of large derelict sites, relocation of poorly located uses and new pedestrian links.

3.19

Policy ER4 seeks to define and establish spatial roles for the District’s city, town and local shopping centres. The policy states that in order to maintain the vitality and viability of its town centres, provide services as locally as possible and minimise the need to shop by car, the Council proposes the following hierarchy:

•

Lancaster City Centre will be a Sub-Regional City Centre. It is stated that the city centre will be the main comparison shopping destination for Lancaster District attracting significant numbers of shopping trips from adjoining parts of Cumbria, North Yorkshire and Central Lancashire, as well as developing a role as a tourist destination. 18

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Morecambe Town Centre will continue to develop as a Town Centre. It is stated that Morecambe will provide local comparison and convenience shopping goods for the District north of the River Lune and will retain an important role as a visitor destination.

Carnforth Town Centre will develop a District Centre role as a Key Service Centre, Market Town and visitor destination.

Bare (Princes Crescent), Caton, Heysham Road, Heysham, Lancaster University, Silverdale, Torrisholme, West End and Westgate will develop as local service centres providing key services to local communities.

3.20

Paragraphs 5.24 to 5.27 of the CS provide further commentary in relation to the centres in the District. Lancaster is described as stable and successful with low vacancy rates. It is stated that because there are few development opportunities that retail and other development needs will need to be met in a planned extension to the primary shopping area and that this will require strong links and measures to avoid an unbalanced pattern of retailing in the City. Morecambe is described as a large but underperforming centre. It is stated that the challenge for Morecambe is to develop its offer to visitors whilst maintaining and developing its role as a general shopping centre for residents of the District north of the River Lune and to manage the transition of peripheral shopping areas to other uses. Carnforth is described as a small but important centre providing convenience and some comparison goods to rural north Lancashire and neighbouring parts of Cumbria.

3.21

Policy ER5 of the Core Strategy relates to ‘New Retail Development’. The policy has the purpose to focus retail need on regenerating and reinforcing the vitality and viability of existing centres. The policy states that between 2005 and 2021 new comparison retailing will be focused on a planned expansion of Lancaster’s Primary Shopping Area and to meet regeneration needs in Central Morecambe. The policy goes on to state that to address existing and future needs and to ensure that day-to-day shopping needs are met locally, the Council proposes that new local food retailing be provided in town or local centres or, at an appropriate scale in sustainable locations in areas of deficiency.

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Other Considerations

Planning for Town Centres: Practice Guidance on Need, Impact and the Sequential Approach 3.22

The Practice Guidance also confirms that an up to date assessment of the need for additional or replacement floorspace to accommodate town centre uses is a fundamental component of the evidence base to underpin policy making. Paragraph 3.2 indicates that both quantitative and qualitative need will have a role to play in reaching an overall judgement about the scale and form of development which should be planned for and facilitated through development plans. Quantitative need is identified as being that which arises as a result of forecast expenditure growth (either through population growth or increases in spending), or by imbalance between the existing facilities and the current level of available expenditure in an area. Qualitative need includes that which is related to customer choice, the appropriate distribution of facilities and the needs of those living in deprived areas.

3.23

Paragraph 3.4 of the Practice Guidance sets out the five key stages which will underpin an assessment of quantitative retail need, these being:



the definition of the catchment/study area;



the assessment of current/future spend;



the assessment of current shopping patterns and market shares;



the comparison of current and forecast turnover with existing floorspace; and



the identification of future expenditure capacity and need for new floorspace.

The Portas Review - An Independent Review into the Future of Our High Streets 3.24

The Portas Review (December 2011) is an independent review undertaken by Mary Portas into the state of Britain’s high streets and town centres. The review considers the reasons why retail spending on the high street is falling, why there has been a decline of Britain’s high streets, and the benefits that can be brought about through the protection of Britain’s high streets. Portas puts forward 28 recommendations including actions that Government, businesses and other organisations should take in order to create diverse, sustainable high streets where retailers can thrive.

3.25

The Government released a response to the Portas Review in March 2012. The response acknowledges that in response to the challenges facing town centres, namely out of centre retail development and online retailing, the high street will have to offer something new and different in 20

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order to create a diverse and competitive environment. In its response, the Government accepts the majority of recommendations put forward in the Portas Review, including: the implementation of Town Teams (described as a ‘visionary, strategic and strong operational management team for high streets); the provision of funding to pilot areas judged to have the best ideas for improving their town centres and high streets; investing in Business Improvement Districts; and, support for a new National Market Day. The Government’s response seeks to encourage areas to think creatively about how their town centres can be improved in order to entice people back including through the redesign of high streets and promoting the evening and night time economy.

The Grimsey Review – An Alternative Future for the High Street 3.26

The Grimsey Review provides an alternative review to The Portas Review. The Grimsey Review has been produced by Bill Grimsey in association with eight other industry experts. The Review criticises the Portas Review for failing to highlight to the Government the dramatic structural changes impacting the retail industry through the convergence of changing consumer behaviour by technology as well as changes brought about by the prevailing economic conditions.

3.27

The Review sets out three specific conclusions which set the context of the Review, which are as follows:

Town centre/high street plans must encompass a complete community hub solution incorporating; health, housing, education, arts, entertainment, business/office space, manufacturing and leisure, whilst developing day time, evening time and night time cultures where shops are just a part of the total plan.

A number of radical government actions are required in order to create a level playing field which will provide conditions for town centres to facilitate change, encourage local investment, cutting through red tape and providing a common set of measures to track performance.

A methodology and timetable is required to enable all local authorities to produce a town centre business plan complete with timelines, capital and revenue costs and benefits. The output for each town centre will be different identifying their own individual selling proposition and vision based on their unique heritage.

3.28

The Review sets out 31 recommendations on how to save UK town centres. The first recommendation made by the Grimsey Review states that it needs to be accepted that there is too much retail space in the UK and that bricks and mortar retailing can no longer be the anchor to creating thriving town

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centres. Other recommendations include that the ‘change of use’ process is used to convert entire sub-high streets to residential or other uses within an agreed high street plan and that successful independent retailers are relocated into the main commercial centre. In addition, it is recommended that a strategy for empty shops is required and it is advised that landlords of empty shop units should be required to apply for a change of use and make the asset productive in the community as housing, health, leisure, culture or education facilities in line with an agreed town plan. Recommendations are also made in relation to car parking charges; it is advised that two hour free high street and town centre car parking should be introduced, along with a freeze on car parking charges for a minimum 12 months. It is also recommended that the reintroduction of the 2015 business rates revaluation takes place immediately in order to realign property values and that business rates are frozen from 2014.

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4.0 Original Market Research Introduction 4.01

The undertaking of original market research enables in-depth analysis at a local level and allows the evaluation of the trade draw of particular town centres. The use of specifically commissioned and tailored survey research is fundamental to identifying the likely capacity for future retail floorspace across the Study Area. Notwithstanding this, WYG acknowledges that there can be limitations to survey research, particularly with regard to the sample size which can be achieved, and the results should therefore be taken to be a broad indication of consumer preferences.

4.02

A key requirement of this study is the detailed understanding of shopping patterns in terms of the use of town centres and local centres and the identification of centres catchment area. WYG commissioned specialist market researchers NEMS Market Research Limited (NEMS) to undertake a comprehensive household telephone survey to identify consumer’s habits and preferences in the Study Area. WYG also reviewed the previously commissioned household survey results which were undertaken by NEMS as part of the 2006 Study.

Study Area 4.03

Drawing on the empirical evidence that was collated for the previous Study in 2006, an important element of this Retail Development Strategy is to review previous shopping patterns within the City to highlight any changes which have occurred since 2006 and ascertain any impacts on behaviour which may have arisen as a result of the wider UK economy, but also as a result of retail led development both within and in the vicinity of the Study Area.

4.04

WYG adopted an amended Study Area which comprises thirteen survey zones. Table 4.1 below sets out the postcode areas which comprise each zone. A map of the catchment is also provided below at Figure 4.1. The zones were defined according to postcode sectors (to assist in the collection of data for the purposes of a telephone based household survey) rather than precisely representing the shopping catchment areas of the respective areas. In an attempt to consider shopping behaviour within the wider area which looks to Lancaster to meet its shopping needs, WYG has included an additional survey zone beyond the Study Area (Zone 16), covering the rural south area beyond Lancaster and Garstang to the south east of Lancaster, as it is likely that some residents in this rural area would undertake shopping trips to Lancaster. We have also excluded zones (former Zones 14 and 16 that were previously included covering Whitehaven) from the Study Area, given the limited trade draw to facilities in Lancaster found in 2006. We have also amalgamated a number of zones (Zone 13 comprises former Zones 10 and 13 and Zone 11 comprises former Zones 11 and 12). 23

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Figure 4.1: Study Area and Zones for Lancaster Retail Development Strategy

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Table 4.1: Postcodes by Survey Zone Survey Zone

Postcode Sectors

Zone 1: Lancaster

LA1 1, LA1 2, LA1 3, LA1 4, LA1 5

Zone 2: Morecambe

LA3 1, LA3 2, LA3 3, LA4 4, LA4 5, LA4 6

Zone 3: South West Lancaster

LA2 0, LA2 9

Zone 4: Garstang and Wyre

PR3 0, PR3, PR3 6, FY6 0, FY6 9

Zone 5: North West Lancaster

LA2 7, LA2 8, LA6 2, LA6 3

Zone 6: Carnforth

LA2 6, LA5 8, LA5 9 LA6 1

Zone 7: Silverdale/Arnside

LA7 7, LA8 0, LA5 0

Zone 8: Kendal

LA9 4, LA9 5, LA9 6, LA9 7

Zone 9: Grange-over Sand’s/Cartmel

LA8 8, LA11 6, LA11 7

Zone 11: Barrow & Ulverston

LA12 0, LA12 7, LA12 9, LA13 0, LA13 9, LA14 1, LA14 2, LA14 3, LA14 4, LA14 5, LA15 8, LA16 7, LA17 7

Zone 13: Lakes (Windermere)

LA8 9, LA12 8, LA22 0, LA23 1, LA23 2, LA23 3

Zone 15: South Eden

CA10 3, LA10 5, CA16 6, CA17 4

Zone 16: Ribble Valley

BB7 3, BB7 4, PR3 2, PR3 3

Household Telephone Survey 4.05

In April 2013 a survey of 1,700 households was undertaken within the Study Area, which comprises all of Lancaster district and also extends well into neighbouring authority areas in the north, west and south. The geographical extent of the Study Area is shown in Figure 4.1. The survey undertaken by NEMS asked a minimum of 100 respondents from each of the survey zones a series of questions on their retail and leisure expenditure habits (some zones with larger populations had a high sample, for example Zones 1, 2 and 11 (200), Zones 4 and 8 (150)).

4.06

A full copy of the results of the survey results are contained in Appendix 1.

4.07

A key element of this Retail Strategy is to obtain a detailed understanding of the catchment and influence of existing retail provision within Lancaster. This section considers the market share of existing facilities based on shopping trips rather than the amount of expenditure generated. The analysis of shopping patterns within each of the zones allows for detailed assessments to be undertaken for the various goods identified (e.g. main food, clothing, electrical goods, DIY, recreation, and so on). This can often assist with the identification of any qualitative deficiencies in provision. This analysis of shopping patterns (rather than expenditure flows) allows for equal weight to be given to each category. The results (where possible) of the 2006 survey are compared to the results of the current household survey in order to ascertain whether there have been any significant changes in shopping patterns over the last seven years and to consider the reasons for any such changes.

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4.08

The primary catchment area for facilities in Lancaster is principally focused on Zones 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6. WYG have sought to review any changes within these specific zones rather than the more secondary catchments (Zones 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13 and 15) that cover adjoining local authority areas, we have included analysis of Zones 4, 5 and 7 only in the context that they sit adjacent the administrative area of Lancaster (Zone 5 is part covered by Lancaster). The configuration of these zones has also changed since 2006 which has reduced the level of comparable analysis that can accurately be undertaken. It should be noted that no such comparison is possible for Zone 16 as this has been altered from that in 2006. It previously covered Whitehaven, but has now been moved for the purposes of this Study (to consider inflow from the Ribble Valley area instead). We have also removed the previous Zone 14 (Millom) from the Study Area. However, WYG has, through liaison with NEMS, recoded both the 2006 and 2013 datasets which has removed zones that were not compatible to allow a like for like comparison to be made. The market shares in this section have been adjusted where possible to allow direct comparisons to be made.

Main Food Shopping Patterns 4.09

Table 4.2 below indicates that all convenience stores situated within Lancaster District secure a main food shopping market share of 39.6% within the Study Area, this compares to a retained main food market share of 38.5% in 2006.

Table 4.2: Lancaster’s Main Food Shopping Market Share Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2006

2013

Difference

1

96.9

99.6

+2.8

2

99.5

97.9

-1.6

3

81.3

93.8

+12.5

4

12.7

8.8

-3.9

5

25.9

28.4

+2.5

6

88.6

86.1

-2.5

7

22.7

19.2

-3.5

Total Lancaster

38.5

39.6

1.1

Source: Table 3, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Table 11, Appendix E (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT (Special Forms of Trading), and recoded against new zone composition, 2013 market shares recoded to reflect 2006 Study Area

4.10

Zones 1, 2, 3, and 6 (which have remained fairly constant since 2006) each have a main food shopping market share of more than 85%. Unsurprisingly, these zones with the highest main food market share are located at the core of the District around Lancaster, Morecambe and Carnforth’s urban areas. The household survey identified the market shares for Zones 5 and 7 to be between 19% and 28% in terms of main food shopping. The zone with the smallest main food market share is Zone 4; only 8.8% of main food shopping trips originating from this zone take place at facilities in the

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District. However, this is not surprising as this zone covers Garstang and other settlements within Wyre and the rural area between Lancaster and Preston. Of those zones which are located at the core of the City, the retention of main food convenience goods expenditure is lowest in Zone 6, where the market share is 86.1%. There has been an overall increase in the main food shopping market shares in the core zones covering Lancaster (notably in Zones 1 and 3), though there has been a slight decline recorded in Zones 2 and 6.

4.11

Since 2006, there has been an improved provision of convenience shopping facilities in the Lancaster Zones within Study Area, notably in respect of:



Zone 1 – A Tesco Metro was completed in Lancaster City Centre (Former ABC) in Spring 2011;



Zone 1 – Sainsbury’s completed a 1,299 sq.m (gross) store extension to their Cable Street facility Spring 2012;



Zone 1 – Sainsbury’s Local occupied a 690 sq.m (net) Victoria Court unit on Penny Street in the Summer 2012;



Zone 2 – Asda relocated to the former Netto at Lancaster Road and extended the store by 931 sq.m in 2012;



Zone 2 – A out-of-centre Sainsbury’s store (6,509 sq.m gross) was opened on Lancaster Road in 2010;



Zone 2 – Aldi completed a 200 sq.m store extension at their Morecambe Road store;



Zone 2 – Asda completed a 1,046 sq.m (gross) store extension to their Ovangle Road store in 2011; and



4.12

Zone 2 – a small (135 sq.m gross) convenience store was opened in Overton village in May 2013.

Outside of the immediate Lancaster area, there have been several new foodstores, including the Sainsbury’s and EH Booths stores at Park Hill in Garstang (Zone 4) that opened in 2009, a Sainsbury’s at Longridge (Zone 16), which opened in 2010, and further afield a new Tesco Express at Ulverston (Zone 11) and Bowness (Zone 13) and a EH Booths in Milnthorpe (Zone 7).

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Table 4.3: Top 10 - Main Food Shopping Market Share (%) 2

Survey Zone (%) Foodstore Aldi, Morecambe Road, Lancaster Asda, Ovangle Road, Morecambe Booths, Hala Road, Scotforth, Lancaster Sainsbury's, Cable Street, Lancaster

Aldi, Marine Road West, Morecambe Asda (Former Netto), Lancaster Rd, Morecambe Morrisons, Central Drive, Morecambe Sainsbury’s, Lancaster Road, Morecambe Booths, Scotland Road, Carnforth Tesco, Lancaster Road, Carnforth

Year

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Total

2013

5.7

0.5

1.5

0.0

0.0

1.6

0.0

1.0

2006

2.6

0.0

0.0

1.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.4

2013

25.3

17.3

11.6

1.4

10.0

5.0

1.3

7.5

2006

28.8

29.7

27.1

2.8

5.6

19.3

0.0

10.7

2013

7.0

0.0

8.4

1.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.3

2006

8.4

0.0

22.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.9

2013

37.9

0.9

34.9

2.7

7.6

2.8

0.0

7.0

2006

33.5

3.0

14.6

5.6

5.6

9.1

0.0

6.7

2013

1.7

4.3

0.9

0.0

0.7

6.4

1.6

1.4

2006

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.9

1.1

2.3

0.2

2013

9.5

8.0

20.6

1.5

1.4

6.9

0.7

3.7

2006

1.0

2.5

0.0

1.4

1.9

1.1

0.0

0.6

2013

4.8

40.5

5.7

0.0

2.4

9.7

0.9

7.8

2006

12.0

51.5

10.4

1.4

7.4

14.8

0.0

10.8

2013

2.3

16.7

0.8

0.0

0.0

9.5

1.5

3.6

2006

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2013

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.4

11.4

5.7

1.0

2006

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

14.8

18.2

1.6

2013

0.7

0.9

0.8

0.0

2.7

30.5

6.5

2.6

2006

1.6

0.0

2.1

0.0

0.0

28.4

2.3

2.1

2013

95.2

89.1

85.3

6.8

26.2

83.7

18.2

37.0

2006

88.0

87.1

77.1

12.7

22.2

88.6

22.7

35.2

Total : Source: Table 3, Appendix 3 (2013 Study) and Table 11, Appendix E (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and recoded against new zone composition, 2013 market shares recoded to reflect 2006 Study Area

4.13

Table 4.3 indicates that the foodstores with the largest market share in the Lancaster District, drawn from Study Area, are the Morrisons at Central Drive in Morecambe (with a net sales area of 3,796 sq.m), the Asda at Ovangle Road (5,154 sq.m net) and the Sainsbury’s at Cable Street in Lancaster (4,074 sq.m net). The market shares of both the Morrisons and Asda stores have decreased since 2006. This is likely to be due to trade being diverted to the new Sainsbury’s on Lancaster Road and the new Asda (former Netto) at Lancaster Road, as well as the increased popularity of the two Aldi stores (Morecambe Road/Marine Road West). The survey indicates that the market share of 28

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Sainsbury’s in Lancaster has increased, probably due to its extension completed in 2012. The introduction of Asda to the former Netto unit at Lancaster Road has seen the store increase its market share since 2006 as a result of the strength of the brand and for relocation of shopping trips from the existing Asda. The two Booths stores in Lancaster District (Hala Road, Lancaster and Scotland Road, Carnforth) have both experienced a decline in their respective market shares. The results show that since 2006, the two Aldi stores (Morecambe Road, Lancaster and Marine Road West, Morecambe) have both experienced notable increases in their market share which is comparable to their success elsewhere in the UK. In terms of Zone 6, the results show that the market share for Tesco at Lancaster Road, Carnforth has increased in the immediate catchment area (Zone 6), while the market share of Booths at Scotland Road in Carnforth has decreased.

4.14

The results show that the Top 10 performing stores in Lancaster retain 95.2% of main food shopping trips in Zone 1, this represents 95.6% of all main trips undertaken (99.6%), demonstrating the dominance of these 10 stores on local shopping patterns.

4.15

Overall, the main food shopping market share of Lancaster is very strong, with a high proportion of main food shopping trips undertaken by the district’s population being retained within the local area, with very little outflow.

Table 4.4: Main Food Shopping Market Shares by Centre Centre

Market Share (%) 2006

2013

Difference

Lancaster City Centre

8.0

7.6

-0.4

Morecambe Town Centre

0.6

1.0

+0.4

Carnforth Town Centre

1.6

1.1

-0.5

Local Centres

1.0

0.3

-0.7

Other (undefined centres)

27.3

29.6

+2.3

Total

38.5

39.6

+1.1

Source: Table 3, Appendix 3 (2013 Study) and Table 3, Appendix E (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and recoded against new zone composition, 2013 market shares recoded to reflect 2006 Study Area

4.16

Table 4.4 shows the main food market shares of each of the centres in Lancaster. At 2013, Lancaster city centre attracts a market share of 7.6%. As would be expected, Lancaster city centre, as the principal centre in the District, has a substantially greater main food market share than is achieved by Morecambe town centre (1.0%) and Carnforth town centre (1.1%). Although Morecambe has the lowest main food market share of the three main centres, Morecambe’s market share has increased (by 0.4 percentage points) since 2006, while the main food shopping market shares of Lancaster city centre and Carnforth town centre have decreased by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively.

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4.17

Local centres in Lancaster District attract a main food market share of 0.3%. This low market share is to be expected given the nature of local centres in catering for day-to-day localised shopping needs. The market share achieved by local centres is 0.7 percentage points lower than the market share achieved by local centres in 2006.

4.18

Overall, the largest main food shopping market share (29.6%) is achieved by stores situated in ‘out of centre’ locations in Lancaster District. The market share of such facilities has increased by 2.3 percentage points since 2006. This increased market share can be attributed to the development of new stores and improvements to existing stores in out-of-centre locations in the District since 2006, including the new Aldi at Morecambe Road in Lancaster, the extension to the Asda on Ovangle Road in Lancaster, the new Asda at Lancaster Road in Morecambe and the new Sainsbury’s at Lancaster Road in Morecambe. The improvements to the main food market share of out-of-centre facilities is reflected by the decreases to the market share of Lancaster, Carnforth and the local centres across the District.

Top-Up Food Shopping Patterns 4.19

Table 4.5 below provides a breakdown of the ‘top-up’ shopping market share achieved by facilities within Lancaster District by zone. At 2013, facilities within Lancaster achieved a top-up shopping market share of 37.3%. This is consistent with the top-up shopping market share of 37.5% achieved by facilities in Lancaster District in 2006. The top-up shopping market share retained in Lancaster District is greater than 80% for Zones 1, 2, 3 and 6. This is to be expected as these zones form the core area of the District around Lancaster, Morecambe and Carnforth’s urban areas. Although the topup shopping market shares of Zone 1, 2 and 3 have increased since 2006, there has been a decline in the market share achieved by Zone 6 (of 5.7 percentage points). This could be attributed to the improvements to convenience goods facilities which have occurred in Zones 1 and 2, with a lack of convenience goods improvements taking place in Zone 6 since 2006. The top-up market shares of Zones 4, 5 and 7 are more limited at 4.3%, 8.9% and 16.2% respectively. However, this is to be expected as these zones also include areas outside Lancaster including Craven, South Lakeland and Wyre.

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Table 4.5: Top-up Shopping Market Share Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2006

2013

Difference

1

95.8

97.2

+1.4

2

94.4

98.1

+3.6

3

91.7

93.3

+1.6

4

5.4

4.3

-1.0

5

9.5

8.9

-0.7

6

88.9

83.2

-5.7

7

13.5

16.2

+2.7

Total Lancaster 37.5 37.3 -0.2 Source: Table 3, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Table 3, Appendix E (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and recoded against new zone composition, 2013 market shares recoded to reflect 2006 Study Area

4.20

Table 4.6 shows the top-up food shopping market shares achieved by Lancaster city centre, the two town centres, local centres and other out of centre locations.

Table 4.6: Top-Up Shopping Market Shares by Centre

2006

Market Share (%) 2013

Difference

Lancaster City Centre

6.7

8.8

+2.1

Morecambe Town Centre Carnforth Town Centre

2.8 1.5

2.2 1.9

-0.6 +0.4

Local Centres

7.4

5.3

Centre

Other (undefined centres)

18.5

19.1

-2.1 +0.6

Total

37.5

37.3

-0.2

Source: Table 3, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Table 3, Appendix 9 (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and recoded against new zone composition, 2013 market shares recoded to reflect 2006 Study Area

4.21

Out of the three main centres, facilities in Lancaster city centre retain the greatest top-up shopping market share (8.8%), followed by Morecambe (2.2%) and Carnforth (1.9%). This is to be expected given the scale of the respective centres. Since 2006, the top-up market share of Lancaster city centre and Carnforth town centre has increased, whilst Morecambe town centre’s has declined. Lancaster’s top up market share has increased in part due to the introduction of small format convenience stores in the city centre (Sainsbury’s at Penny Street and Tesco Express at King Street). Local centres in the District retain a market share of 5.3%, which is a decrease of 2.1 percentage points since 2006. During the same period, the top-up market share of out-of-centre facilities has increased, from 18.5% at 2006 to 19.1% at 2013. As noted in relation to main food shopping, the increase to the market share of out-of-centre facilities can be attributed to new and improved out-of-centre facilities having been developed since 2006, as set out in paragraph 4.18 earlier.

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Linked Trips 4.22

By reviewing a number of questions within the household survey we have been able to review the linked between specific foodstores and established town centres. More generically of the top 10 food destinations set out in Table 4.3, the results show that 21% of respondents linked their main food shop with other retail/leisure led activities, with 62% stating that they undertook no linked trips. Of those linked trips that were undertaken on 8.6% were to Lancaster city centre and a further 8.6% to facilities in Morecambe town centre, and just 3% to facilities in Carnforth.

4.23

However, the results show that some store have a better propensity for encouraging linked trips whereby the Sainsbury’s at Cable Street facilitated 20% of linked trips, with 21% of shoppers at the Asda store at Lancaster Road (Morecambe) undertaking linked trips with 39% of shoppers at the Booths store at Carnforth undertaking linked trips to other retail or services. Conversely less than 10% of shoppers using the two Aldi stores and the Tesco at Carnforth undertook linked trips.

4.24

In terms of the Sainsbury’s at Cable Street, the result found that 80% of shoppers undertaking linked trips did so to facilities in Lancaster city centre. Similarly for the Morrisons at Central Drive, 71% of shoppers undertook a linked trip to Morecambe town centre. In terms of Booths in Carnforth, 89% of those linked trips were to Carnforth town centre. The results show there is less propensity for linked trips from out-of-centre facilities, whereby 51% of linked trips were undertaken from the Asda at Ovangle Road to either Lancaster city centre or Morecambe town centre.

Non-Food Shopping Patterns 4.25

The household survey also assessed shopping patterns for a variety of non-food or comparison goods. Such goods include non-bulky goods (clothing and footwear, small household goods, books, CDs and DVDS, recreational and toy goods and chemist goods) and bulky goods (electrical goods, furniture goods and DIY goods).

4.26

Facilities within Lancaster District retain a comparison goods market share of 31.4%. This is an increase (3.7 percentage points) from 2006, when the market share was 27.6%. The zones located at the core of the District i.e. Zones 1 (80.6%), 2 (79.3%), 3 (73.3%) and 6 (69.2%) have the greatest retention of comparison goods expenditure within the District. This is to be expected given that these zones include the urban areas of Lancaster, Morecambe and Carnforth. The comparison goods market shares of Zones 4 and 7, a large proportion of which cover Wyre and South Lakeland, are substantially lower at 15.3% and 19.5% respectively. Since 2006, the comparison goods market shares of Zones 1, 5 and 7 have increased, with Zone 5’s market share increasing by 6.4 percentage points. Lancaster city centre remains a popular destination for comparison goods shopping for trips originating in Zone 5, with 30.5% of comparison goods expenditure from Zone 5 being spent in Lancaster city centre. In 32

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all other zones the comparison goods market share has decreased since 2006, with the most substantial reduction occurring in Zones 3 and 4, where the market shares have fallen by 5.0 percentage points and 6.4 percentage points respectively. Table 4.7: Comparison Goods Market Shares Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2006

2013

Difference

1

80.4

80.6

+0.2

2

82.2

79.3

-2.8

3

78.4

73.3

-5.0

4

21.7

15.3

-6.4

5

38.4

44.9

+6.4

6

73.4

69.2

-4.2

7

18.5

19.5

+1.0

Total

27.6

31.4

+3.7

Source: Table 25, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Appendix F (2006 Study), adjusted to exclude SFT Note: Whilst the 2006 and readjusted to reflect same study area and the 2006 Study did not consider books, CDs and DVDS, or recreational goods, or chemist goods

4.27

Table 4.8 indicates that since 2006 there has been a decline in the comparison goods market share of Lancaster city centre (of 3.3 percentage points). Notwithstanding this, Lancaster city centre maintains a greater market share than any other centre or out-of-centre facility in the District at 16.0%. The comparison goods market share of Morecambe town centre is lower at 4.6%, with Carnforth having a market share of just 0.4%. Since 2006, Lancaster City Retail Park’s comparison goods market share has increased by 1.4 percentage points and the market share of other out-ofcentre facilities has increased by 4.9 percentage points. The results demonstrating that there has been a shift in retention away from the city centre to the out-of-centre retail parks.

Table 4.8: Comparison Goods Market Shares by Centre Centre

Market Share (%) Difference

2006

2013

Lancaster City Centre

19.3

16.0

-3.3

Morecambe Town Centre

4.5

4.6

+0.1

Carnforth Town Centre

0.2

0.4

+0.2

Local Centres

0.2

0.2

0.0

Lancaster City Retail Park

1.7

3.1

+1.4

Bulk Road Retail Park

0.7

1.0

+0.3

Central Drive, Morecambe Other (Retail Parks and other undefined centres)

0.1

0.5

+0.4

0.8

5.7

+4.9

27.6

31.4

+3.7

Total

Source: Table 25, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Appendix F (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and readjusted to reflect same study area

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Clothing and Footwear 4.28

In terms of shopping for clothing and footwear, facilities in Lancaster District attract 27.6% of shopping trips generated in the Study Area, the lowest market share achieved for all of the eight nonfood goods categories. The District’s market share has decreased by 1.2 percentage points since 2006 when 28.8% of such expenditure was retained. Unsurprisingly, the zones at the centre of the District (Zones 1, 2, 3 and 6) achieve the highest comparison goods market shares in the District, with each zone having a market share greater than 60.0%. However, WYG note that the trade retention has decreased in Zones 1, 2 and 3 since 2006 showing that this expenditure is being spent outside the district. Since 2006, Zones 5 and 6, which are located in the northern part of the District have seen a substantial increase to their clothing and footwear market share of 6.0 and 9.4 percentage points respectively.

Table 4.9: Clothing and Footwear Market Shares Share Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2006

2013

Difference

1

68.5

64.6

-3.9

2

70.6

66.2

-4.3

3

67.3

65.9

-1.5

4

27.3

14.9

-12.4

5

35.3

41.3

+6.0

6

60.7

70.1

+9.4

7

20.8

11.3

-9.5

Total

28.8

27.6

-1.2

Source: Table 9, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Appendix F (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and readjusted to reflect same study area

4.29

Table 4.10 indicates that since 2006 there has been a decline in the clothing and footwear goods market share of Lancaster city centre (of 3.6 percentage points) which is higher than the general decline in comparison goods (3.3 percentage points). Lancaster city centre maintains a greater market share than any other centre or out-of-centre facility in the District at 19.6% (previously 23.2%). The clothing and footwear goods market share of Morecambe town centre is lower at 3.6%, with Carnforth having no market share. Since 2006, Lancaster City Retail Park’s comparison goods market share has declined whilst and the market share of other (undefined) out-of-centre facilities has increased by 2.1 percentage points. We note that these undefined locations are predominantly freestanding supermarkets/foodstores) The results demonstrating that there has been a shift in retention of clothing and footwear trips from the city centre to the out-of-centre supermarkets. With the district’s market share both declining overall within the Study Area, as well as being the lowest of the comparison goods sectors coupled with Lancaster’s city centre market share being affected by the increased competition from supermarket demonstrates that there is a need to improve the clothing and footwear sector in Lancaster.

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Table 4.10: Clothing Goods Market Shares by Centre Market Share (%)

Centre

2006

2013

Difference

Lancaster City Centre

23.2

19.6

-3.6

Morecambe Town Centre

3.7

3.0

-0.7

Carnforth Town Centre

0.1

0.0

-0.1

Local Centres

0.0

0.0

-

Lancaster City Retail Park

0.9

0.8

-0.1

Bulk Road Retail Park

0.2

0.0

-0.2

Central Drive, Morecambe Other (Retail Parks and other undefined centres)

0.0

0.3

+0.3

1.9

4.0

+2.1

28.8

27.6

-1.2

Total

Source: Table 9, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and readjusted to reflect same study area

Small Household Goods 4.30

The previous Study in 2006 did not directly ask the respondents where they last went to buy small household goods (including home furnishings, glass and china items) and therefore a direct comparison between the two datasets is not possible. Facilities in the Lancaster District retain 34.4% of shopping trips for small household goods. Zone 1, which includes Lancaster city centre, retains the greatest market share (86.1%) of the zones in the District, followed by Zone 2 (77.6%) and Zone 3 (70.7%).

Table 4.11: Small Household Goods Market Shares Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2013

1

33.3

2

72.5

3

94.5

4

80.7

5

84.9

6

88.7

7

87.6

8

66.5

Total

81.2

Source: Table 13, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Appendix F (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and readjusted to reflect same study area

Books, CDs, DVDs 4.31

The previous Study in 2006 did not directly ask the respondents where they last went to buy books, CDs and DVDs and therefore a direct comparison between the two datasets is not possible. Table 4.12 sets out Lancaster District’s market share for this comparison goods category as identified by the 35

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2013 household survey. It is evident from Table 4.12 that 41.8% of expenditure for Books, CDs and DVDs is retained in the Lancaster District. This is the highest market share achieved by facilities within the District for any of the eight non-food goods categories. Zones 1 and 2 have retention rates greater than 90%. However, Zones 4 and 7 have substantial lower market shares of 38.0% and 13.0% respectively.

Table 4.12: Books, CD and DVDs Market Shares Analysis by Zone (%) Market Share (%) Zone

2013

1

92.9

2

91.7

3

89.8

4

38.0

5

67.0

6

66.1

7

13.0

Total

41.8

Source: Table 11, Appendix 2 (2013 Study)

Recreational Goods, Toys etc.

4.32

In terms of shopping for recreational goods, toys etc, facilities in the Lancaster District in 2013 attract 33.0% of shopping trips. The zone which retains the highest market share is Zone 3 (80.5%), followed by Zone 1 (79.4%) and Zone 2 (71.2%). Zone 4 retains the lowest market share (18.6%). However, again this is unsurprising given the majority of this zone covers Wyre District.

Table 4.13: Recreational Goods Market Shares Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2013

1

79.4

2

71.2

3

80.5

4

18.6

5

58.8

6

56.6

7

22.6

Total

33.0

Source: Table 15, Appendix 2 (2013 Study)

Chemist Goods 4.33

The facilities in the Study Area attract 37.8% of chemist goods shopping trips. The market shares of Zones 1, 2 and 3 are greater than 90%. Zone 1 has the highest market share, with 99.1% of chemist 36

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goods expenditure from this zone being spent within Lancaster District. Zone 7 has the lowest chemist goods market share, with 13.1% of expenditure from this zone being spent in Lancaster District.

Table 4.14: Chemist Goods Market Shares Analysis by Zone (%) Market Share (%)

Zone

2013

1

99.1

2

97.6

3

95.7

4

17.6

5

30.0

6

78.0

7

13.1

Total

37.8

Source: Table 17, Appendix 2 (2013 Study)

Electrical Goods 4.34

In terms of shopping for electrical goods, facilities in the District attract 39.3% of shopping trips undertaken by the Study Area population. This is a 4.4 percentage point increase in the market share achieved in 2006 (34.9%). The electrical goods market shares of Zones 1 and 2 are above 90%, which is expected as these zones cover the main urban area and include retail parks such as Bulk Road Retail Park which attracts a high proportion of electrical goods expenditure. Since 2006, the market shares of all zones, except for Zone 4, have increased. The electrical goods market share of Zone 7 has seen the greatest increase (19.5 percentage points) since 2006. The market share of Zone 4 has decreased by 4.9 percentage points.

Table 4.15: Electrical Goods Market Shares Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2006

2013

Difference

1

88.2

92.7

+4.5

2

88.7

93.3

+4.6

3

79.5

84.2

+4.7

4

21.0

16.1

-4.9

5

34.1

45.7

+11.6

6

83.6

84.1

+0.5

7

17.8

37.3

+19.5

Total

34.9

39.3

+4.4

Source: Table 19, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Appendix F (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and readjusted to reflect same study area

Furniture, Carpets & Floor Coverings 4.35

The facilities within the Lancaster District achieve a market share of 35.6% for furniture goods. The market share has increased by 3.4 percentage points (from 32.1%) since 2006. The largest market 37

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shares are achieved by Zones 1 and 2, which have market shares greater than 80%. The market share of Zone 4 is only 4.3%, with high proportions of residents from this Zone undertaking their shopping for furniture, carpets and floor coverings in Preston city centre (26.1%) and Garstang town centre (23.9%). The largest increase in the market share has occurred in Zone 6, where the market share has increased by 12.1 percentage points. The market share of Zone 3 has decreased by 7.2 percentage points.

Table 4.16: Furniture Market Shares Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2006

2013

Difference

1

84.8

83.2

-1.6

2

77.8

87.0

+9.2

3

63.6

56.4

-7.2

4

6.5

4.3

-2.2

5

33.3

42.3

+9.0

6

65.0

77.1

+12.1

7

32.5

26.5

-6.0

Total

32.1

35.6

+3.4

Source: Table 23, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Appendix F (2006 Study) Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and readjusted to reflect same study area

DIY & Gardening Goods In terms of shopping for DIY and gardening goods, facilities located within Lancaster District attract 36.5% of shopping trips undertaken by the Study Area population, with the market share having increased slightly, by 1.1 percentage points, since 2006 (from 35.4%). Zones 1 and 2 have the highest market shares of 98.5% and 94.9%. This can be attributed to these zones being located at the core of the District, with facilities in Lancaster city centre and Morecambe town centre being popular destinations for DIY and gardening goods shopping trips originating in these zones. Since 2006, there has been an increase in the market shares achieved by Zones 1, 2, 3 and 7. Zone 6 has seen a decline to its market share of 11.9 percentage points since 2006 (from 84.0% to 72.1%). Table 4.17: DIY Goods Market Shares Analysis by Zone (%) Zone

Market Share (%) 2006

2013

Difference

1

92.6

98.5

+5.9

2

91.0

94.9

+3.9

3

77.8

80.4

+2.7

4

20.7

16.5

-4.2

5

29.8

24.0

-5.8

6

84.0

72.1

-11.9

7

7.1

7.9

+0.7

Total

35.4

36.5

+1.1

Source: Table 21, Appendix 2 (2013 Study) and Appendix F (2006 Study)

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Note: 2006 market shares adjusted to exclude SFT, and readjusted to reflect same study area

Special Forms of Trading (SFT) 4.36

The household survey identifies that 2.6% of respondents last undertook their main food shop using the internet. This is an increase from 2006, when just 0.5% of respondents undertook their main food shopping via the internet. In terms of top-up shopping, 0.6% of respondents order their top-up shopping over the internet in 2013. In 2006, only 0.2% undertook their top-up shopping via the internet showing a increasing in such usage, but it is still relatively limited.

4.37

In terms of clothing and footwear, 9.5% of respondents purchase such goods via the internet, which is a substantial increase of 9.1 percentage points since 2006. For small household goods, 8.1% purchase such goods using the internet, this compares to 12.5% for recreational goods and 3.2% for chemist goods. The products which are most commonly purchased via the internet are books, CDs and DVDs, with 30.6% of all such purchases being made online in 2013. The percentage of electrical goods purchased over the internet has increased by 9.6 percentage points since 2006 (from 6.1% in 2006 to 15.7% in 2013). There has been an increase in the proportion of householders purchasing DIY goods online, with an increase of 2.0 percentage points between 2006 (0.1%) and 2013 (2.1%). In terms of furniture, 4.4% purchase such goods via the internet, which is an increase of 3.6 percentage points since 2006.

4.38

It is evident from the household survey results that the purchase of food and comparison goods over the internet is increasingly becoming more popular in Lancaster, which reflects wider national trends. Table 4.18: Special Forms of Trading (SFT) SFT (%) 2013

2006

Difference

Main Food Shopping

0.5

2.6

+2.1

Top-Up Shopping

0.2

0.6

+0.4

Clothing & Footwear

0.4

9.5

+9.1

Small Household Goods

-

8.1

-

Books, CDs, DVDs

-

30.6

-

Recreation Goods, Toys etc

-

12.5

-

Chemist Goods

-

3.2

-

Electrical Goods

6.1

15.7

+9.6

DIY Goods

0.1

2.1

+2.0

Furniture

0.8

4.4

+3.6

Source: NEMS Household Survey 2013 (weighted data, adjusted to exclude don’t know/can’t remember responses)

4.39

This trend towards increased use of the internet to purchase both convenience and comparison goods is reinforced by the responses to question 33 of the household survey, which asks Do you make use of electronic home shopping (i.e. internet or TV shopping)? The results confirm that 53.9% of 39

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respondents use the internet to shop at least on occasion, 3.5% use portable internet (i.e. mobile phone) and 3.6% undertake TV home shopping. The proportion of respondents not using electronic home shopping is 45.0%.

Conclusions 4.40

The zones located at the core of Lancaster District (Zones 1, 2, 3 and 6) achieve a high market share in relation to both main food and top up shopping. Zone 1 which includes Lancaster has a main food shopping market share of 99.6% and a top-up shopping market share of 97.2%, which demonstrates that existing convenience retail provision within the District is performing well in meeting the convenience goods shopping needs of the local area.

4.41

In relation to comparison goods, market shares ranging from 69.2% to 80.6% are achieved by the zones located at the core of Lancaster District. It is therefore evident that only a low proportion of shoppers are travelling from the core area of Lancaster to outside the District to meet their comparison goods shopping needs. However, the findings show that clothing and footwear has the lowest market share of all the comparison good types and has decreased since 2006, this is principally due to claims on the sale of such goods from supermarkets.

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5.0 Population and Expenditure 5.01

This section of the report assesses the current population and available expenditure (for both convenience and comparison goods) within the Study Area. The extent of the Study Area and its thirteen zones was previously identified by Figure 4.1.

Study Area Population 5.02

The population within each postal code sector has been calculated using Experian Micromarketer G3 data (2011 estimate, which was issued in September 2012). The baseline population data takes into consideration the findings of the recent 2011 Census release which has then been projected forward by Experian (using growth rates derived from ONS population projections).

5.03

For the purpose of this Update, population and expenditure has been calculated at five year intervals from 2013 (the base date) to 203124 in accordance with the NPPF (i.e. 2013, 2018, 2023 and 2028), and then at 2031 to reflect the future development plan timeframe.

5.04

On this basis, the defined Study Area has a resident population of approximately 383,715 people at 2013 rising to 419,161 people at 2031. This represents an increase in population within the Study Area of 26,446 people (equating to an increase of 6.8%) between 2013 and 2031. The increased population estimates in the core Zones around the district are comparable to the SNPP-2010 population projections set out in the Independent Housing Requirements Study prepared by Turley Associates in November 2013.

5.05

Table 5.1 provides a detailed breakdown of the forecast population change within each survey zone in each of the reporting periods to 2031. Table 5.1: Baseline – Study Area Population by Survey Zone (2013 to 2031) Zone

2013

2018

2023

2028

2031

1

55,594 51,481 8,413 30,035 14,429 23,084 11,447 28,324 12,963 86,872

58,266 52,522 8,596 30,436 14,579 23,318 11,323 29,153 12,609 87,613

60,994 53,650 8,758 31,065 14,711 23,527 11,255 30,107 12,444 88,610

63,937 55,291 8,956 31,540 14,915 23,862 11,234 31,024 12,295 89,216

65,641 56,074 9,030 31,718 14,970 23,975 11,191 31,586 12,221 89,502

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 24

2031 is three years after 2028 but reflects the plan period

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13 16

18,543 20,061 22,469

18,715 20,312 22,980

19,052 20,525 23,468

19,305 20,723 23,858

19,413 20,793 24,047

Total

383,715

390,422

398,166

406,156

410,161

15

Source: 2013 data derived from Experian Micromarketer G3 data

Retail Expenditure 5.06

In order to calculate per capita convenience and comparison goods expenditure, WYG has utilised Experian Micromarketer G3 data which provides detailed information on local consumer expenditure which takes into consideration the socio-economic characteristics of the local population. Experian is a widely accepted source of expenditure and population data and is regularly used by WYG in calculating retail capacity.

5.07

The base year for the Experian expenditure data is 2011. Per capita growth forecasts have been derived from Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 11, which was published in October 2013. For the purposes of this study, the following annual growth forecasts have been applied. Table 5.2: Expenditure Growth Forecasts Year

Convenience

Comparison

2012

-0.6

+3.1

2013

-0.6

+3.2

2014

-0.3

+2.3

2015

+0.1

+2.8

2016

+0.6

+2.9

2017

+0.9

+2.9

2018

+0.8

+3.1

2019

+0.9

+3.1

2020

+0.9

+3.0

2021

+0.9

+3.0

2022

+0.9

+2.9

2023

+0.9

+2.9

2024

+0.9

+2.9

2025

+0.8

+2.9

2026

+0.7

+2.8

2027

+0.7

+2.9

2028

+0.8

+2.9

2029

+0.9

+2.9

2030

+0.9

+2.9

*

+0.8

+2.9

2031

Source: Retail Planner Briefing Note 11 (October 2013) * Not provided by Experian and therefore based on average between 2021 to 2030 estimated annual growth rate

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5.08

The latest growth forecasts suggest that the current downturn in the economy will continue to impact upon future expenditure, at least in the short term. However, over the medium to long term it is expected that the forecast levels of growth will increase as the economy recovers. In terms of convenience goods, Experian forecasts relatively modest annual changes ranging between -0.6% and +0.1% between 2013 and 2015, before identifying increased anticipated growth of between +0.6% to +0.9% per annum or greater between 2016 and 2029. WYG has applied the average estimated growth rate from between 2021 to 2030 to calculate growth in the year 2031 in the absence of any specific forecast for those years. However, growth in expenditure forecast in the longer term (beyond the next ten years) should be treated with caution given the inherent uncertainties in predicting the economy’s performance over time. Assessments of this nature should therefore be reviewed on a regular (yearly and five yearly), first to pick up any short term changes but secondly in order to ensure that forecasts over the medium and long are reflective of any changes that may occur in the future.

5.09

Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 11 also provides a forecast as to the proportion of expenditure which will be committed through special forms of trading (comprising ‘non-store retailing’, such as internet sales, TV shopping and so on) over the reporting period. We have ‘stripped out’ any expenditure which survey respondents indicated was committed via special forms of trading and instead have made an allowance derived from Experian’s recommendation.

5.10

In considering special forms of trading, it should be noted that many products which are ordered online are actually sourced from a store’s shelves or stockroom (particularly in the case of convenience goods). Accordingly, expenditure committed in this manner acts to support stores and should be considered ‘available’ to tangible retail destinations. Appendix 3 of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 11 states that:

‘Since the non-store retailing figures include supermarkets and other retailers that source internet goods sales from store space, the share of non-store retailing is over-stated from the point of view of those interested in physical retail outlets, particularly for convenience goods.’

5.11

Due to this ‘over-statement’, in making an allowance for expenditure committed via special forms of trading, we adopt Experian’s adjusted figure (provided at Appendix 3 of the Briefing Note) which accounts for internet sales which are sourced from stores. The proportion of expenditure committed through special forms of trading cited below at Table 5.3 is ‘stripped out’ of the identified expenditure as it is not available to stores within the Study Area.

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Table 5.3: Special Forms of Trading Forecasts Year

Convenience

Comparison

2013

2.5%

10.8%

2018

3.8%

14.5%

2023

4.8%

15.9%

2028

5.4%

16.0%

*

5.6%

15.9%

2031

Source: Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 11 (October 2013) * Not provided by Experian and therefore based on the 2030 adjusted allowance for special forms of trading

5.12

Using the above growth rates and special forms of trading allowances, it is possible to produce expenditure estimates for each survey zone under each population growth scenario at 2013, 2018, 2023, 2028 and 2031. In doing so, our assessment takes into account both per capita retail expenditure growth and population change. WYG should note that the above SFT forecasts are projected growth rates and it still unclear whether these will mature or stabilise over time or/at expected levels, therefore our approach is considered cautious but we would recommend given the fluidity of this growth sector that this is regularly (yearly) monitored as it may have consequences on requirement for tangible floorspace.

Convenience Goods Expenditure 5.13

Taking into consideration the above increases in population and per capita expenditure, it is estimated that, at 2013, the resident population of the Study Area generates some £734.8m of convenience goods expenditure25. This is forecast to increase to £866.3m at 2031, which represents an increase of £131.5m (or 17.9%) between 2013 and 2031. Up 2018, the convenience goods expenditure is estimated to increase to £753.7m, which represents an increase of just £19.0m (+2.6%).

Table 6.4 Total Available Study Area Expenditure – Convenience (£m) 2013

2018

2023

2028

2031

734.8

753.7

794.6

837.9

866.3

Growth

Growth

Growth

Growth

2013-2018

2013-2023

2013-2028

2013-2031

19.0

59.9

103.2

131.5

Source: Table 2a, Appendix 2

Main Food and ‘Top-Up’ Shopping 5.14

It has been assumed that the proportion of convenience goods expenditure directed to each respondent’s main food shopping destination equates to 80% of their overall convenience shopping expenditure. The remaining 20% of expenditure (which will typically be spent on regular purchases such as milk, bread and so on) is therefore attributed to the respondents’ ‘top-up’ convenience

25

Expressed in 2011 prices, as is every subsequent monetary value

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shopping destination. This ratio broadly reflects the respective expenditure committed during main food and top-up shopping trips as identified by Questions 5 and 15 of the household survey.

5.15

By applying these estimates to the identified resident population of the Study Area, convenience goods expenditure at 2013 committed through ‘main food’ shopping trips is estimated to be £587.8m and through ‘top up’ shopping trips is estimated to account for £147.0m.

Comparison Goods Expenditure 5.16

At 2013, it is estimated that the resident population of the Study Area generates £1,019.8m of comparison goods expenditure, which is forecast to increase to £1,710.0m at 2031. This represents an increase of £690.3m (or 67.6%) between 2013 and 2031. Whilst this increase is clearly significant, it is more modest than that which has previously been achieved due to the more circumspect levels of comparison goods growth which is forecast over the short and medium term in particular. Indeed, the identified comparison goods expenditure growth of £123.0m within the Study Area between 2013 and 2018 represents just a 12.0% increase.

Table 5.5 Total Available Expenditure Study Area – Comparison (£m) 2013

2018

2023

2028

2031

1,019.8

1,142.7

1,324.4

1,556.4

1,710.0

Growth

Growth

Growth

Growth

2013-2018

2013-2023

2013-2028

2013-2031

123.0

304.6

536.7

690.3

Source: Table 8, Appendix 2

5.17

For the purposes of this study, comparison goods expenditure has been divided into eight subcategories: ‘Furniture’, ‘DIY’, ‘Electrical’ (these four categories collectively being referred to as bulky goods), ‘Clothing & Footwear’, ‘CDs, DVDs and Books’, ‘Small Household Goods’, ‘Toys, Games, Bicycles and Recreational Goods’ and ‘Health and Beauty/Chemist Goods’ (collectively referred to as non-bulky goods). The proportion of expenditure directed to each sub-category is estimated by Experian on a zone by zone basis.

Inflow (Visitor/Tourism) Expenditure to Lancaster 5.18

With Lancaster (and Morecambe) both recognised as important destinations in Lancashire’s and the North West’s wider tourism economy, WYG has sought to establish the level of shopping expenditure that is attracted to the area from visitor and tourist spend. WYG has drawn from data contained in the Scarborough Tourism Economic Activity Monitor report (STEAM). STEAM data confirms that the total ‘shopping’ expenditure by visitors in Lancaster is £158.8m in 201126, of which £70.8m is spent on food and drink, which we understand includes eating out at destinations such as restaurants, pubs, cafes

26

STEAM data is in 2011 price base and is consistent with the price base of this Statement.

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etc and £88.0m is spent on shopping. STEAM identify that other (£60.2m) expenditure is spent in Lancaster on accommodation, recreation and transport.

5.19

The STEAM data does not break down the shopping spend into comparison or convenience goods items. In drawing on the ratio identified by Experian between convenience and comparison goods (i.e. £734.8m/£1,019.8m respectively) at 2013 WYG has assumed that around £36.9m is spent at facilities in the district on convenience goods with a further £51.1m spent on comparison goods retail. We have assumed that a total of around £88.0m is spent in the district as a whole, which represents an inflow of around 5.0% of all goods when compared to the £1,754.6m generated in the local area.

Market Share of Expenditure of Main Facilities 5.20

Having estimated the level of expenditure which is generated by the resident population within the defined Study Area, it is necessary to identify the ‘sphere of influence’ of each of the town and district centres through consideration of each centre’s claimed market share of available expenditure. We have also assessed the market share claimed by the major retail parks (this latter category effectively being ‘undefined’ in planning terms).

5.21

As previously explained this update has involved the completion of 1,700 household telephone interviews within the defined Study Area. By analysing the results from the survey, it is possible to estimate the levels of expenditure which are directed towards each principal centre’s shopping facilities. The market shares for the various expenditure categories were identified in Section 4. For this update, WYG has removed allowances to SFT. Table 5.6 below sets out the differing market shares achieved for each of the main retail destinations across the district, and shows that the main destinations for undertaking shopping trips is Lancaster city centre, followed by Morecambe town centre. The third most popular destinations are facilities at Central Drive in Morecambe. Joint fourth is Bulk Road Retail Park and Lancaster City Retail Park (Morecambe) with 1.8% market share. Facilities in Carnforth retained just 0.7% of all expenditure spend. The network of local centres (Heysham, Bolton le Sands, Torrisholme, Caton, and West End) when considered together are the least most popular destinations in the district. The results clearly show that the level of clothing and footwear retention in Lancaster is the lowest of all the goods categories examined.

5.22

Overall the facilities within the district retain approximately 33.0% of all local expenditure generated in the Study; this is considered a healthy and sustainable level given the extent of the Study Area (covering south Cumbria), demonstrating that there is limited outflow of expenditure from the core zones.

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Table 5.6: Lancaster District Market Shares by Location Market Shares by Category (%) Convenience Goods Electrical

Clothing & Footwear

CDs, DVDs, books

Small Household

Recreation

Chemist

TOTAL^

Local Centres

DIY

Carnforth Town Centre

Furniture

Morecambe Town Centre

Top-up Food

Lancaster City Centre

Main Food

Destination

0.6

4.9

9.8

8.4

17.0

18.2

26.5

15.9

21.6

18.8

9.8

1.0

2.1

8.0

8.9

4.6

2.8

3.0

5.1

5.9

6.2

3.1

1.0

1.8

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

1.4

0.2

0.5

2.6

0.7

0.3

5.0

1.3

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.6

-

-

5.6

1.9

0.1

0.7

0.0

2.8

0.2

0.0

1.8

-

-

4.4

7.6

11.7

1.1

0.3

2.4

1.2

0.9

1.8

8.7

3.2

0.9

3.2

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.0

0.3

2.8

25.9

18.6

5.4

5.4

5.5

4.4

10.0

7.4

3.6

8.4

12.3

37.5

35.6

35.6

36.5

39.3

27.6

41.8

34.4

33.0

37.8

33.0

Lancaster City Retail Park Bulk Road Retail Park Central Drive, Morecambe Other (undefined)

District Sub-Total

Comparison Goods

Source: Lancaster Household Shopping Survey (2013) ^ Based on cumulative market share of all categories (convenience goods and comparison goods) In 2011 prices

Forecast Growth in Expenditure Attracted to Study Area 5.23

With forecast growth in convenience goods expenditure predicted to increase at an average of 0.5% per annum27 across the whole of the period from 2013 to 2031, it is estimated that the Study Area will experience an increase in convenience goods expenditure of approximately £131.5m at 2031. Assuming a constant ‘Study Area’ market share of 35.3%, this equates to an increase (within the district) in retained convenience goods expenditure of approximately £46.4m at 2031.

5.24

The significant forecast increase in expenditure on comparison goods (an average of 2.6% per annum29 increase in the period 2013 to 2031) would result in a further £690.3m of comparison goods expenditure being generated within the Study Area by 2031. Assuming a constant comparison goods market share of 31.3%, existing facilities within Lancaster will capture around an additional £216.1m of comparison goods expenditure by 2031.

27 Growth rates taken from Appendix 3 of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 11 (October 2013), and are adjusted to take into consideration SFT allowances.

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5.25

This analysis is based on ‘rolling forward’ the current market share within the Study Area for each category of goods. This approach of rolling forward existing market share is in line with standard practice and does not take into account the desirability or need to ‘claw back’ leakage between expenditure directed to centres elsewhere, which might be achieved through improvements in retail provision.

5.26

In order for the Study Area to capture the significant future growth in retail expenditure which is forecast (particularly for comparison goods), it is likely that there will be a need to enhance future retail provision, thereby ensuring that this growth is not lost to competing centres and that the Study Area retention rate does not decline in the future.

5.27

If an excess of comparison or convenience goods expenditure manifests itself within the Study Area, this does not necessarily translate directly into a requirement for additional floorspace. In assessing quantitative need, it is also necessary to take account of: •

Existing development proposals;

Expected changes in shopping patterns; and

The current capacity and efficiency of retail floorspace within the established centres.

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6.0 Capacity in Existing Centres 6.01

WYG has examined the need for new convenience and comparison goods floorspace over five year reporting periods to 2028, and then to 2031 to coincide with the lifespan of the emerging Local Plan. At the outset, it is important to note that an assessment in the long term should be viewed with caution, due to the obvious difficulties inherent in predicting the performance of the economy and shopping habits over time. In any event, any identified need or capacity identified beyond 2018 should not necessarily be viewed as justification of new retail floorspace outside of centres as this could prejudice the implementation of any emerging town centre redevelopment strategies and the development of more central sites which may be currently available or which could become available over time.

6.02

A complete series of quantitative capacity tables are provided at Appendix 2 to provide further detail in terms of the step-by-step application of the study methodology.

Capacity Formula 6.03

For all types of capacity assessment, the conceptual approach is identical, although the data sources and assumptions may differ. The key relationship is Expenditure (£m) (allowing for population change and retail growth) less Turnover (£m) (allowing for improved ‘productivity’) equals Surplus or Deficit (£m).

6.04

Expenditure (£m) – The expenditure element of the above equation is calculated by taking the

population within the defined catchment and then multiplying this figure by the average annual expenditure levels for various forms of retail spending per annum. The expenditure is estimated with reference to a number of factors, namely:

6.05



Growth in population;



Growth in expenditure per person per annum; and



Special Forms of Trading (e.g. catalogue shopping / internet).

Turnover (£m) – The turnover figure relates to the annual turnover generated by existing retail

facilities within the Study Area. The turnover of existing facilities is calculated using Mintel Retail Rankings and Verdict UK Grocery Retailers reports – independent analysis which lists the sales density for all major multiple retailers.

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6.06

Surplus / Deficit (£m) – This represents the difference between the expenditure and turnover figures

outlined above. Clearly, a surplus figure will suggest an under provision of retail facilities within the Study Area (which, all things being equal, would suggest that additional floorspace is required), whereas a deficit would suggest an over provision of retail facilities (and in these circumstances it would prove difficult to justify additional floorspace).

6.07

Although a surplus figure is presented in monetary terms, it is possible to convert this figure to provide an indication of the quantum of floorspace which may be required to meet identified needs. The level of floorspace will vary dependent on the type of retailer proposed and the type of goods traded. For example, electrical retailers such as Currys (which is considered a bulky goods retailer) have a much higher sales density than other bulky goods retailers such as B&Q, and clothing and footwear (non-bulky goods) operators generally have a higher sales density than bulky goods retailers.

Future Capacity for Convenience Goods 6.08

In order to ascertain the likely need for additional convenience goods floorspace for Lancaster, it is first necessary to consider the current provision. For each centre, it is assumed that future expenditure available to the centre will be based upon its existing market share. Given that the district is already relatively well provided for with a variety of foodstore operators, it is assumed that the future convenience goods expenditure available to Lancaster will be commensurate to its current market share of 35.3%. This current market share is calculated by examining the trading performance of stores in the wider Study Area.

6.09

The analysis of the market share of facilities in Lancaster indicates that the current level of trade at 2013 passing through food facilities originating from inside the Study Area is £259.7m. For each identified convenience goods destination, we have made a judgement as to whether any additional expenditure is likely to be attracted from outside the Study Area. We have considered this ‘inflow’ on a case by case basis, having regard to the size of the store, its operator and its position within Study Area but also the level of tourist spend identified by STEAM and its wider overall tourism offer.

6.10

We estimate that, taken as a whole, approximately £36.8m is estimated to be attracted to convenience retail facilities from outside the Study Area, taking the total expenditure spent at existing facilities within the district to £296.6m.

6.11

For each destination, the survey-derived turnover is compared to a ‘benchmark’ turnover that indicates the level of turnover that the store would generally be expected to attract, based on company average trading levels. A judgement can then be made on the trading performance of existing facilities based on the comparison of the survey-derived turnover with the expected turnover of the existing provision. 50

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6.12

Tables 6.1 and 6.2 indicate the current trading position compared against the ‘benchmark’ (or anticipated) turnover of existing convenience goods floorspace and project this forward to 2031 assuming that the identified market share remains constant. The ‘benchmark’ turnover differs for each operator based on its average turnover per square metre (or ‘sales density’) throughout the country. Although robust up to date information is available in terms of the convenience goods floorspace provided by large foodstores, it can be more difficult to quantify the extent of local convenience provision as there is no single comprehensive database to rely upon. Where WYG have been unable to verify the exact quantum of floorspace provided by existing smaller-scale convenience stores, we have assumed that stores are trading ‘at equilibrium’ (i.e. the survey-derived turnover equates to the expected level of turnover).

6.13

Furthermore, as this assessment is based upon a ‘goods based’ approach (which disaggregates expenditure by category type) it is important to recognise that major foodstore operators generally sell an element of non-food goods such as books, compact discs, clothing and household goods. To account for this, the typical ratio between convenience/comparison goods provision for each operator28 has been applied to the estimated net floorspace of each foodstore. This provides an indication of the likely sales area dedicated to the sale of convenience goods at each store.

6.14

Whilst survey results are commonly accepted as a means by which to identify existing shopping patterns, their findings should be treated with a ‘note of caution’ as they tend to have a bias towards larger stores and understate the role of smaller stores and independent retailers.

6.15

Our assessment identifies that, across the main convenience goods provision considered together, the expected benchmark turnover of existing convenience goods shopping provision is £263.0m per annum at 2013, which is below the survey-derived turnover (plus inflow) of £296.6m per annum. The derived figure allows for inflow in the manner previously identified. This suggests that, cumulatively, convenience goods floorspace is effectively ‘over trading’ by £33.5m. Whilst overall the trading performance of existing provision appears to be satisfactory, there are instances where certain facilities trade either particularly well or relatively poorly. For example, the results show that facilities in Zone 1 (Lancaster) are overtrading with a benchmark turnover of £124.0m being below the survey derived turnover of £131.4m; whereas facilities in Zone 2 (Morecambe) claim around £15.7m more than the benchmark turnover of £113.0m. Similarly, in Zone 6 (Carnforth), the survey identifies that facilities have an estimated turnover of £29.5m, which compares to an expected benchmark of £22.9m, so overtrading by £6.5m.

28

Taken from Verdict Food & Grocer Retailers (2012)

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6.16

Accepting the caveat provided at paragraph 6.14, the survey indicates that a number of stores are performing particular well in and around the main three main city/town centres. In particular facilities in Zone 1 (Lancaster) including the edge of centre Sainsbury’s store on Cable Street, the out of centre Asda at Ovangle Road, the Aldi at Morecambe Road and the Booths at Hala Road are all overtrading significantly. Other stores, mainly located in the city centre (in centre), are trading below expected benchmark levels including the Sainsbury’s Local, Co-Operative Food, Tesco Express and the M&S Simply Food. Overall facilities in Zone 1 are over trading above expected benchmark levels.

6.17

In terms of Zone 2 (Morecambe), the results show contrasting performances at different stores. In the town centre, facilities are trading at around expected levels with the Tesco Metro trading at expected levels whilst compared to the Iceland which is performing below expected levels. Out-of-centre facilities also show a mixed trading performance, with the Aldi at Marine Road West, the Asda at Lancaster Road and the Morrisons at Central Drive all trading significantly higher than expected benchmark levels. However, Sainsbury’s at Lancaster Road is trading at around 79% of expected levels. In terms of the three local centres, Heysham and Torrisholme are trading at expected levels whilst facilities in the West End are performing well below expected benchmark levels. When considering the collective performance we found that generally existing facilities are trading above expected levels.

6.18

In terms of Zone 6 (Carnforth), the results show that facilities in the town centre (Co-operative Food and Booths) are cumulatively trading below expected levels, whilst the Tesco at Lancaster Road is trading significantly above expected benchmark levels.

6.19

The individual performance of each of the main convenience goods facilities are identified at Table 5 of Appendix 2. It should be noted that, although the level of trading in some cases is high, such trading performances are not uncommon and will occur at numerous stores operated by the ‘leading five’ supermarket retailers and also at successful ‘discounted’ stores.

6.20

In order to appraise the need for additional convenience goods retail floorspace, it is necessary to consider how this collective overtrading may be affected by future growth in expenditure. Accordingly the next series of tables set out the anticipated increases in expenditure which will be available to the district’s convenience goods retail facilities, assuming that the current market share is maintained. It is also assumed that the turnover of existing floorspace will improve through improvements in floorspace efficiency as set out in Experian Retail Planner 11. Following this exercise, we then consider the effect extant planning commitments will have in addressing any identified convenience shopping needs.

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Convenience Goods Quantitative Need in Lancaster (District Wide) – Baseline 6.21

Table 6.1 indicates that, through increases in both population and expenditure applied to the current trading position and inclusion of inflow from beyond the Study Area, there is a convenience goods expenditure surplus of £33.5m at 2013. By 2018 after increase population and expenditure figures coupled with increases in productivity, we estimate that there will be a surplus expenditure of £46.2m at 2018, increasing to £61.9m at 2023, up to £78.1m at 2028 and £88.2m by 2031 (based on the existing market share (35.3%) being retained).

Table 6.1: Baseline – Quantitative Need for Convenience Goods Floorspace in Lancaster Year

Benchmark Turnover (£m)

Available Derived Expenditure (£m)

263.0 258.0 258.8 260.0 261.4

2013 2018 2023 2028 2031

Surplus Expenditure (£m)

296.6 304.2 320.7 338.2 349.6

33.5 46.2 61.9 78.1 88.2

Source: Table 6 (Table 1a) Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

Table 6.2: Baseline: Quantitative Need for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace in Lancaster District – After Commitments Year

Convenience Goods £m

2013 2018 2023 2028 2031

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m net)

Surplus

Extant

Residual

Min

Max

33.5 46.2 61.9 78.1 88.2

26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9

19.6 35.2 51.3 61.3

1,700 3,000 4,400 5,200

4,000 7,200 10,500 12,400

Source: Table 6 (Table 1c) of Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

6.22

WYG understands there is 4,860 sq.m (net) of convenience good floorspace proposed across the city (in the form of extant planning permissions). WYG estimates that the proposed floorspace will have a turnover of £28.3m once all are trading at 2018, and we estimate that £26.6m of this will be derived from the Study Area. As shown in Table 6.2, extant permissions effectively absorb circa 60% of the expenditure capacity identified (£26.6m of £46.2m); and, a need for between 1,700 sq.m and 4,000 sq.m of additional convenience goods floorspace by 2018 is required. The majority of any capacity will be absorbed by five extant planning permission which includes one new major supermarket (namely the Booths at Scotforth Road) in Zone 1 (planning permission reference 10/00251/FUL), which is a replacement foodstore for their Hala Road store. We also have assumed that the existing

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Booths store will be re-occupied by a discount retailer29. There is also a CLUED for the existing B&Q store on Aldcliffe Road in Lancaster to be used for a foodstore, although the B&Q is still trading at the time of this Study. There is also a new Aldi store proposed at Scotforth Road on the edge of Carnforth town centre and a small extension to the existing Aldi store at Morecambe Road. Together the proposals account nearly 60% of the estimated surplus expenditure at 2018.

6.23

WYG recommends that the Council carefully monitor the implementation of extant planning permissions over the next five years and review how these influence existing shopping patterns moving forward.

Convenience Goods Quantitative Need in Lancaster Urban Area (Zone 1) 6.24

In order to appraise the need for additional convenience goods retail floorspace in the main urban area around Lancaster, we have considered the trading performance of existing facilities in Zone 1 which forms the main urban area around Lancaster. The area includes facilities that are located in and around Lancaster city centre, as well as other undefined locations (including ‘standalone’ edge and out of centre stores and local parades). The results show that existing facilities in the Zone 1 retain 79.7% of the available main food expenditure and 89.9% of top up food expenditure generated within the Study Area, this is considered strong but with some scope for improvement in main food retention, although 99.6% of main food (and 97.2% of top up) trips are retained within the district as a whole, demonstrating very sustainable retention levels.

6.25

Drawing on information contained in Table 5 of Appendix 2, it is evident that convenience goods facilities within Zones 1, when considered together, have an expected benchmark turnover of £124.0m at 2013, which compares to a survey-derived turnover of £131.4m. The survey-derived figure allows for inflow (£19.4) in accordance with STEAM estimates. This mirrors the results for the district as a whole, whereby cumulatively convenience goods floorspace are ‘over trading’ in Zone 1.

6.26

Table 6.3 indicates that, at 2013, an expenditure surplus of £7.4m (above the expected benchmark turnover) is attributed to facilities in the Lancaster Urban Area. This surplus, derives from the overtrading mainly driven by the significant over trading experienced at the Aldi store on Lancaster Road, the Sainsbury’s store on Cable Street and the Booths store at Hala Road. This overtrading masks some of the under-performing stores in the city centre. The Asda store dominates local shopping patterns and has the second highest turnover in the district; it retains 25.0% of all the main food trade retained within Zone 1. The results also indicate that the trading performance of convenience goods facilities in Lancaster city centre (Zone 1) is below expected benchmark levels.

29 WYG has assumed that there will be a full transfer of trade of the existing Booth store (Hala Road) to the new store, as a likefor-like replacement (albeit larger) and the existing store will be re-occupied by a discount retailer.

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Facilities in Lancaster have a convenience goods market share of 15.2% in the Study Area, which represents 43.0% of the retained expenditure in the district as a whole.

Table 6.3: Quantitative Need for Convenience Goods Floorspace in the Lancaster Urban Area Year

Benchmark Turnover (£m)

2013 2018 2023 2028 2031

Available Derived Expenditure (£m)

124.0 121.6 122.0 122.6 123.2

Surplus Expenditure (£m)

131.4 134.8 142.1 149.8 154.9

7.4 13.1 20.1 27.2 31.7

Source: Table 6 (Table 2a) Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

6.27

Table 6.3 provides a breakdown of the capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace in monetary terms. Assuming existing convenience goods facilities maintain their existing market share at 15.2%. After taking into account floorspace efficiencies and existing commitments, it is assumed that this surplus will increase to £13.1m at 2018, increasing to £20.1m at 2023, to £27.2m at 2028 and to £31.7m by 2031.

6.28

There is a 4,070 sq.m (net) of convenience good floorspace proposed in and around the Lancaster Urban Area (Zone 1) in the form of extant planning permissions. We estimate that the consented floorspace would have a turnover of £22.9m if trading at 2018, of which £21.5m would be derived from the Study Area. However, from analysis of the trade draw of existing facilities in Zone 1, as well as Zone 2 and the position of the commitments (mostly to the south of Lancaster urban area) we expect that that vast majority of the trade (£16.8m) of the estimated turnover will be derived from Zone 1 residents with some clawed back from facilities in Zone 2. This in turn will help reduce the overtrading experienced at facilities in Zone 2 over time.

As shown in Table 6.4, after allowing for

extant planning permissions, there is no identifiable quantitative need for further convenience goods development up to 2018, based on the existing market share being maintained. At 2023, the identified residual of £3.3m will support limited additional convenience goods floorspace 300 sq.m to 700 sq.m net), with more capacity identified after 2028 but this should be reviewed again in 5 years time.

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Table 6.4: Quantitative Need for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace in Lancaster Urban Area –After Commitments Year

Convenience Goods £m

2013 2018 2023 2028 2031

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m net)

Surplus

Extant

Residual

Min

Max

7.4 13.1 20.1 27.2 31.7

16.8 16.8 16.9 17.0

-3.6 3.3 10.3 14.7

-300 300 900 1,300

-700 700 2,100 3,000

Source: Table 6 (Table 2c) of Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

6.29

As previously advised, most of the capacity is absorbed by the new Booths store at Scotforth Road and the re-occupation of its existing store at Hala Road, as well as the re-occupation of the existing B&Q store at Aldcliffe Road. WYG have question marks over the deliverability of the B&Q for a foodstore given the limited visual prominence of the store, if this does not come forward, then we estimate that there would be a residual capacity of £6.1m at 2018 increasing to £13.0m at 2023, which could equate to a need for a small foodstore development at 2023. In light of existing planning commitments, WYG would recommend that shopping patterns are further reviewed subsequent to the implementation of the new Booths store at Scotforth Road (and reoccupation of Hala Road store) to assess if the new facilities change patterns of convenience goods shopping in the area and to see if this increases local trade retention in Zone 1 and reduce the overtrading experienced at existing facilities in Zone 2 leading to a more balanced and equitable distribution of shopping patterns.

Convenience Goods Quantitative Need in Morecambe (Zone 2) 6.30

Table 6.5 sets out Morecambe’s survey derived convenience goods turnover (£131.4m) and compares this within the expected collective benchmark turnover (£113.0m) of the existing provision, indicating that existing facilities are overtrading against expected levels. The results identify that Morecambe town centre facilities are trading at expected benchmark levels. However, the over trading results from the significant over trading occurring at the Aldi at Marine Road West, the Asda at Lancaster Road and the Morrisons at Central Drive, which are overtrading by £31.6m alone (whilst the new Sainsbury’s at Lancaster Road is under trading by £6.6m). The market share of the facilities in Morecambe is 15.8% from the Study Area and is higher than that achieved in Zone 1. WYG expect that given the Sainsbury’s store at Lancaster Road only opened in 2010, its trading performance will still be maturing and we expect this to meet its benchmark rates in the next five years.

6.31

Based on this overtrading, there is currently an expenditure surplus of £18.4m identified at 2013, which increases to £23.9m at 2018, increasing to £30.9m at 2023, £38.1m at 2028 and to £42.6m at

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2031. Our methodology assumes that 14% of the turnover of the shops in Morecambe will be derived from outside the Study Area.

6.32

There are no planning commitments for new convenience goods retailing in Morecambe, however as set out in Table 6.5, and based on existing trade draw of existing facilities, we have assumed that some of the turnover of proposed developments in Zone 1 will be derived from residents in Zone 2. We therefore estimate that the proposed floorspace will derive £4.7m from residents in Zone 2 at 2018. This would absorb 20% of the identified capacity based on the retention of Morecambe’s existing market share However, WYG believe that new convenience provision in Lancaster (Zone 1) will help to reduce the over trading that occurs in Zone 2 as residents in Zone 1 shop at these new facilities in Zone 1, therefore the identified capacity will be reduced. We also believe that as the trading performance of the Sainsbury’s store matures it will reduce any over trading over time and we would therefore recommend that these figures be reviewed.

Table 6.5: Quantitative Need for Convenience Goods Floorspace in Morecambe Year

Benchmark Turnover (£m)

2013 2018 2023 2028 2031

Available Derived Expenditure (£m)

113.0 110.9 111.2 111.8 112.3

131.4 134.8 142.1 149.9 154.9

Surplus Expenditure (£m)

18.4 23.9 30.9 38.1 42.6

Source: Table 6 (Table 3a) Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

6.33

As shown in Table 6.6, after taking account of extant planning permission, there is a surplus capacity of £19.2m at 2018 for new convenience goods floorspace in Morecambe; this could accommodate between 1,700 sq.m and 4,000 sq.m (net), based on the existing market share being maintained. At 2023, the identified residual will increase to £26.2m and will support 2,300 sq.m to 5,400 of additional convenience goods floorspace, and the increased residual of £37.9m at 2031 will support 3,200 sq.m to 7,700 sq.m. As explored earlier, we expect that the Sainsbury’s stores trading performance will mature over the next 5 years and coupled with improved facilities in Zone 1 will reduce the over trading currently found and therefore there is likely to be less capacity over the next 5 years and this position should be monitored.

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Table 6.6: Quantitative Need for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace in Morecambe Year

Convenience Goods £m

2013 2018 2023 2028 2031

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m net)

Surplus

Extant

Residual

Min

Max

18.4 23.9 30.9 38.1 42.6

4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8

19.2 26.2 33.4 37.9

1,700 2,300 2,900 3,200

4,000 5,400 6,800 7,700

Source: Table 6 (Table 3c) of Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

Convenience Goods Quantitative Need in Carnforth (Zone 6) 6.34

Table 6.8 sets out Carnforth’s collective survey derived convenience goods turnover (£29.5m) and compares this within the expected collective benchmark turnover (£22.9m) of the existing provision, showing that existing facilities are overtrading against expected levels. However, the results show that whilst the out-of-centre Tesco at Lancaster Road is significant overtrading by £9.9m facilities in the town centre were trading at about 75% of expected benchmark levels. The results indicate that existing facilities in Carnforth retain 42.7% of main food shopping trips and 65.9% of top up food trips in Zone 6. The results show that 34.0% of Zone 6 residents were undertaking main food trips to facilities in Zone 2 (Morecambe) and 10% travelling to facilities in Zone 1 (Lancaster) with 10% travelling to facilities in Kendal. The results show that facilities in Carnforth have a market share of 3.9% from within the Study Area.

6.35

Based on this overtrading, there is currently an expenditure surplus of £6.3m identified at 2013, increasing to £7.4m by 2018, to £9.0m by 2023, to £10.6m by 2028 and to £11.6m by 2031. This allows for an inflow of 3% of turnover from outside the Study Area. The results indicate that existing facilities in Carnforth retain approximately 47.4% of all convenience goods expenditure generated by residents within Zone 6, however, 98.7% of all convenience goods expenditure generated in Zone 6 is spent at facilities in the wider district. Table 6.8: Baseline Quantitative Need for Convenience Goods Floorspace in the Carnforth (Zone 6) Year

Benchmark Turnover (£m)1

Surplus Expenditure (£m)

2013

22.9

29.5

6.5

2018

22.5

30.2

7.7

2023

22.5

31.9

9.3

2028

22.7

33.6

10.9

2031

22.8

34.7

12.0

Available Derived Expenditure (£m)2

Source: Table 6 (Table 3a) Appendix 2 2011 Prices

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6.36

The results also show that nearly 80% of trade draw of existing Carnforth facilities is from residents who live in Zone 6, with 9% trade draw from Zone 7 and 3% from both Zones 1, 2 and 5.

6.37

As previously identified, there is an extant planning permission for a new Aldi store on the edge of Carnforth town centre, which comprises a net floorspace of approximately 790 sq.m. As set out in Table 6.9, and based on existing trade draw of existing facilities, we have assumed that the new store will absorb any capacity and address the over trading found in Zone 6, the Aldi store is likely to help claw back expenditure currently spent at facilities in Zone 2. This would absorb 50% of the identified capacity based on the retention of Carnforth’s existing market share.

Table 6.9: Quantitative Need for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace in Carnforth (Zone 6) – After Commitments Year

Convenience Goods £m

2013 2018 2023 2028 2031

Floorspace Requirement (sq. m net)

Surplus

Extant

Residual

Min1*

Max2*

6.5 7.7 9.3 10.9 12.0

5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2

2.7 4.2 5.8 6.8

200 400 500 600

500 900 1,200 1,400

Table 6 (Table 2c) of Appendix 2 At 2011 prices

6.38

As shown in Table 6.9, after taking account of extant planning permissions, there is a surplus capacity of £2.7m at 2018 for new convenience goods floorspace in Carnforth. This could accommodate between 200 sq.m and 500 sq.m (net), based on the existing market share being maintained. At 2023, the identified capacity will increase to £4.2m and will support 400 sq.m to 900 sq.m of additional convenience goods floorspace. WYG would recommend that before 2018 and subject to the implementation of the Aldi store, local shopping patterns are reviewed, we believe that the introduction of the store will not only help address the overtrading experienced at the Tesco store at Scotforth Road, but will also help reduce the level of residents in Zone 6 from travelling to facilities in Zone 2 and would reduce the over trading of such facilities in Zone 2, this will reduce the identified need in Zone 2 in the medium term.

Future Capacity for Comparison Goods 6.39

As highlighted in Section 4 of this report, the three principal centres of Lancaster, Morecambe and Carnforth contain a wide range of comparison goods floorspace, including both high street multiples, and independent retailers, as well as out of centre retail warehousing provision and comparison goods

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floorspace within the major supermarkets. Lancaster city centre has by far the highest level of comparison goods floorspace, equating to over 31,000 sq.m (gross). Morecambe town centre has the second highest level of comparison goods floorspace in the Borough with 14,800 sq.m (gross) and is closely followed by Lancaster City Retail Park (Sunnycliffe) which accommodates 11,130 sq.m (gross), with approximately 5,600 sq.m (gross) at Bulk Road and Kingsway Retail Parks in Lancaster.

6.40

Our analysis of the market share of facilities in the district indicates that the level of trade passing through comparison goods facilities which originate from inside the Study Area is £319.7m at 2013. This represents a market share 31.3% of the total comparison goods expenditure generated from within the defined Study Area. We estimate that an extra £51.1m is drawn to the city as ‘inflow’ from outside the Study Area (in accordance with STEAM estimates). This represents an inflow of around 16%. Table 6.10 below provides a breakdown of the comparison goods market share by different shopping destinations across the district.

Table 6.10: Comparison Goods Market Share and Turnover within the Study Area (2013) Market Share (%)

Survey Estimate Turnover (£m)

City Centre Edge of Centre/Out of Centre Supermarkets Bulk Road and Kingsway Retail Park

16.0

191.1

0.6

7.0

3.1

34.9

Other Out of Centre (undefined)

1.4

15.6

21.1

248.6

Town Centre

4.6

58.0

Sub-Total

4.6

58.0

Lancaster City Retail Park

3.1

35.6

Central Drive

0.5

5.4

Other Out of Centre

1.3

14.8

Sub-Total

4.9

55.8

Destination Lancaster

Sub-Total Morecambe

Retail Parks

Carnforth Town Centre

0.4

3.7

Sub Total

0.4

3.7

0.0

0.4

Local Centres Heysham Torrisholme

0.0

0.1

Caton

0.0

0.0

Bolton Le Sands

0.0

2.0

Sub-Total

0.2

2.5

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Other (undefined)

0.2

2.2

Sub-Total

0.2

2.2

31.3

370.8

Total

Notes: Based on findings of the Lancaster Household Survey (2013), taken from Table 26 of Appendix 2 Based on market share of expenditure (comparison goods) after allowance made for inflow (£51.1m) At 2011 prices

6.41

Despite the total combined level of comparison goods floorspace within the three main retail parks (Bulk Road, Kingsway and Lancaster City Retail Park (Sunnycliffe)) and other out-of-centre stores, now comparable to that in Lancaster city centre, the city centre is still the single most popular destination for comparison goods shopping, retaining 16.0% of available expenditure within the wider Study Area. The three retail parks together retain just under a tenth (9.4%) of all available expenditure, but do retain 30% of the spend retained in the wider district demonstrating the popularity of such destinations. Morecambe town centre is the second most popular destination, retaining 4.6% of local generated expenditure. Lancaster City Retail Park (Sunnycliffe) is the most popular of the three parks, retaining 3.1% of locally generated expenditure. Bulk Road and Kingsway together attract a further 3.1% of locally generated expenditure. Carnforth and the other local centres have a limited comparison goods retail role in the wider district with a combined market share of just 0.6%.

6.42

On this basis, WYG has ‘rolled forward’ Lancaster’s current 31.3% market share to examine the likely level of comparison goods floorspace required to maintain its current role and function and position within the hierarchy.

Comparison Goods Quantitative Need in Lancaster (District Wide) – Baseline 6.43

Accordingly, given the forecast increases in comparison goods expenditure, special forms of trading and projected increases in the Study Area population, WYG estimates that at 2018 there will be an expenditure surplus of £4.5m to support additional comparison goods floorspace, Whilst this is modest in the short term, Table 6.11 identifies that the expenditure surplus is then forecast to increase to £26.9m at 2023, to £63.9m at 2028 and to £89.1m at 2031.

Table 6.11: Baseline – Quantitative Need for Comparison Goods Floorspace in Lancaster (District)

2013

Benchmark Turnover (£m) 370.8

Derived Available Expenditure (£m) 370.8

Surplus Expenditure (£m) 0.0

2018

411.0

415.5

4.5

2023

454.6

481.5

26.9

2028

501.9

565.9

63.9

532.7

621.7

89.1

Year

2031

Source: Table 27 (Table 1a) of Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

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Table 6.12: Baseline – Quantitative Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace in Lancaster (District) – After Commitments Year

Comparison Goods £m

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m net)

Surplus 0.0

Extant

Residual

2018

4.5

7.4

-2.9

-500

-900

2023

26.9

8.2

18.7

3,100

5,100

2028

63.9

9.0

54.9

8,100

13,500

2031

89.1

9.6

79.5

11,100

18,400

2013

Min

Max

Source: Table 27 (Table 1c) of Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

6.44

Drawing on information from Lancaster, 1,805 sq.m (net) of comparison good floorspace is currently proposed across the district (in the form of extant planning permissions). WYG estimates that if this committed comparison goods floorspace is implemented it would have a turnover of £8.7m if these were trading at 2018. Of this, we estimate that £8.2m would be derived from the Study Area, we have also assumed that just 90% of these will come forward (or £7.4m). Most of the floorspace (660 sq.m net) is allocated as comparison goods floorspace within proposed foodstores. As shown in Table 6.12, these commitments absorb all of the identified capacity for major new comparison goods development in the short term up to 2018 based on the existing market share being retained (and based on current economic forecasts). At 2023, WYG estimates that a residual capacity of £18.7m will be available to support new development of between 3,100 sq.m (net) and 5,100 sq.m (net), which is set to increase to £54.9m by 2028 and to £79.5m by 2031. Dependent on format and operator, we estimate that there will be a need for an additional 11,100 sq.m to 18,400 sq.m of additional comparison goods floorspace up to 2031. However, we recommend that any capacity identified in the period beyond 2018 should be considered with a degree of caution as a number of assumptions may change in the future which could ultimately change this capacity.

6.45

In the following sections we will review the capacity for comparison goods retailing in Lancaster and Morecambe as the key principal locations for such development. Given the limited role of comparison goods retailing in Carnforth town centres and other smaller local centres, we have not undertaken capacity assessment as any new floorspace requirement is likely to be relatively nominal and we don’t foresee there any need to significantly expand the comparison goods offer in these centres in the future.

Comparison Goods Quantitative Need in Lancaster Urban Area (Zone 1) 6.46

Similar to the approach for convenience goods, and in order to appraise the need for additional comparison goods retail floorspace in the main urban area around Lancaster, we have considered the trading performance of existing facilities in Zone 1 which form the main urban area of Lancaster. The 62

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area includes facilities located in and around Lancaster city centre, as well as other out of centre locations (including Retail Parks (Bulk Road and Kingsway)). The household survey indicates that existing facilities in Zone 1 retain 71.1% of the available comparison goods expenditure generated within Zone 1 and 21.1% of all available spend within the Study Area. When the retention of comparison goods spend in Zones 2, 3, 5 and 6 is considered strong (between 34% and 62%), it is evident that existing facilities in Zone 1 have a wider draw, demonstrating that facilities in Zone 1 attract over a fifth of all the spend within the wider Study Area demonstrating it has the highest trade retention of all the survey zones.

6.47

The results show that Lancaster city centre retains £162.7m of comparison goods expenditure with a further £28.4m attracted to the city centre through inflow.

6.48

Our analysis, set out at Table 6.13, indicates that the comparison goods facilities in and around the Lancaster urban area, retain £214.7m of comparison goods expenditure (excluding inflow). WYG estimates drawing on STEAM estimate that there is inflow of 16% from outside the Study Area, which represents £33.9m, increasing the derived turnover to £248.6m.

6.49

Assuming this market share is maintained and ‘rolled forward’; we estimate that by 2018 a comparison goods expenditure surplus of £3.0m originating from within the Study Area will be available to facilities in Lancaster Urban area. After allowing for increases in the turnover efficiencies of existing floorspace, a surplus of £18.0m is available at 2023 to support additional comparison goods floorspace. This identified surplus is forecast to increase to £42.9m at 2028 and to £59.7m at 2031. These surpluses in Zone 1 represent around 67% of the capacity estimated for the district as a whole.

Table 6.13: Quantitative Need for Comparison Goods Floorspace in the Lancaster Urban Area baseline

2013

Benchmark Turnover (£m) 248.6

Available Derived Expenditure (£m) 248.6

2018

275.6

278.6

3.0

2023

304.8

322.9

18.0

2028

336.6

379.4

42.9

2031

357.2

416.9

59.7

Year

Surplus Expenditure (£m) 0.0

Source: Table 27 (Table 2a) Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

6.50

WYG are aware that planning permission has been granted for a limited level of new comparison goods floorspace across the Lancaster Urban Area. There is over 1,800 sq.m (net) of net comparison goods floorspace committed through extant planning permissions across the district, 1,600 sq.m of which is located Zone 1 and most of which is linked to foodstore format development. Table 6.14 63

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sets out our estimate that proposed floorspace in the Lancaster Urban Area will have a total estimated turnover of £6.5m if trading at 2018. We have assumed given the dominance of Lancaster on local shopping trips that 70% (or £4.6m) of the potential turnover will be borne from capacity in Zone 1 with the remaining from Zone 2 (Morecambe). This would leave a residual surplus of -£1.5m at 2018 based on the existing market share remaining constant at 21.1%. In the long term residual capacity is expected to increase to £13.0m at 2023, £37.3m at 2028 and to £53.8m at 2031. At 2031, between 7,500 sq.m and 12,500 sq.m of net floorspace could be supported based on the existing market share being retained, and after 90% existing extant planning permissions are implemented.

Table 6.14: Quantitative Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace in Lancaster Urban Area – Baseline after Commitments Year

Comparison Goods £m

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m net)

Extant

Residual

Min

Max

2013

Surplus 0.0

2018

3.0

4.6

-1.5

-300

-500

2023

18.0

5.1

13.0

2,100

3,500

2028

42.9

5.6

37.3

5,500

9,200

2031

59.7

5.9

53.8

7,500

12,500

Source: Table 27 (Table 2c) of Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

6.51

Once more, it should be noted that long term estimates should be viewed with a degree of caution as even moderate changes to population levels and expenditure growth forecasts will have a significant bearing on estimates of available expenditure over time (as will any failure to implement existing planning commitments). These estimates are based on up-to-date information available at the time of reporting, and we would therefore recommend that these are regularly monitored to ensure the Council’s preferred strategy is realised.

Comparison Goods Quantitative Need in Morecambe (Zone 2) 6.52

Morecambe has a relatively modest level (10,400 sq.m gross) of comparison goods floorspace in the centre when compared with Lancaster city centre, we also note that there is over 12,000 sq.m (net) of floorspace located out-of-centre locations, 8,900 sq.m of which is at Lancaster City Retail Park (Sunnycliffe) also located in Zone 2. However, Morecambe’s more limited provision still forms an important part of its wider retail and service offer. The centre has a number of key multiples present including Superdrug, Boots, Oasis, Home Bargain’s, B&M and Argos as well a strong independent retailer presence. As set out in Section 4, the household survey indicates that Morecambe’s market share has increased since 2006 from 4.5% to 4.6%; representing an increase of just +0.1 percentage point. This is less than the increases found for Morecambe town centre in terms of main food (+0.4 percentage point) but more than the top-up food which has declined. 64

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6.53

We note that the market share for Lancaster City Retail Park (Sunnycliffe) increased from 1.7% in 2006 to 3.1% by 2013, with most of the gains made from more residents in Zone 2 using the retail park.

6.54

Our analysis indicates that comparison goods facilities in Morecambe (Zone 2) retain £97.1m of comparison goods expenditure (excluding inflow), equating to 9.5% of all available expenditure generated within the Study Area. WYG estimates using STEAM data, that there is inflow of 18% from outside the Study Area, which represents £17.2m of expenditure. This increases the derived turnover to £114.3m.

Table 6.15: Quantitative Need for Comparison Goods Floorspace in Morecambe

2013

Benchmark Turnover - £m1 114.3

Derived Available Expenditure - £m2 114.3

2018

126.7

128.1

1.4

2023

140.2

148.5

8.3

2028

154.8

174.5

19.7

2031

164.2

191.7

27.5

Year

Surplus Expenditure 0.0

Source: Table 27 (Table 2a) of Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

6.55

Again, we assume that the identified market share is maintained and ‘rolled forward’ in the future and, on this basis, changes in forecast comparison goods expenditure and projected increases in population will actually result in an expenditure surplus of just £1.4m in Morecambe by 2018. Subsequent to this, a surplus of £8.3m is available at 2023 to support additional floorspace, increasing to £19.7m at 2028 and to £27.5m at 2031.

6.56

As set out earlier, there are no major extant planning permissions in Morecambe or Zone 2. However, given the synergy with Zone 1 and Lancaster it is expected that some of the identified capacity will be drawn from proposed new floorspace in Zone 1. We have therefore estimated that 30% of the proposed floorspace will absorb some of the capacity in Zone 2. As shown in Table 6.15 below, the extant floorspace will absorb half of the capacity identified for further comparison goods development up to 2018, based on the existing market share being retained. In the medium term (2023), we estimate that between 1,000 sq.m (net) and 1,700 sq.m (net) can be accommodated and this would increase to between 3,500 sq.m (net) and 5,800 sq.m (net) by 2031. However, WYG would recommend that any capacity beyond 2018 is monitored regularly and once more up to date information is available.

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Table 6.15: Quantitative Need for Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace in Morecambe – Baseline after Commitments Year

Comparison Goods £m

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m net) Min1*

Max2*

Extant

Residual

2013

Surplus 0.0

2018

1.4

2.0

-0.6

-100

-200

2023

8.3

2.2

6.1

1,000

1,700

2028

19.7

2.4

17.3

2,600

4,300

2031

27.5

2.5

24.9

3,500

5,800

Source: Table 27 (Table 3c) of Appendix 2 In 2011 prices

Qualitative Need 6.57

The above analysis provides an assessment of quantitative capacity based, for the most part, on the current market share achieved by existing facilities in a particular centre being maintained. As found in both Sections 4 and 5, the results show that Lancaster has a high retention of both convenience goods and comparison goods shopping patterns, with limited outflow of trade to other competing centres. This is partly due to the strength of existing retail provision across the district. The results show that in terms of Zone 1 facilities retain 71.1% of comparison goods spend, with a further 9.3% spent in Morecambe. With 80.6% of comparison goods spend retained at facilities in the district as a whole. There is 18% outflow of comparison goods expenditure (or £23.7m) to facilities to outside the Study Area. This is mainly to facilities in Greater Manchester (5.6%) and Preston (6.5%) as well as 2.6% to Liverpool/Warrington. The same is found in Zone 2, 3 and 6, whereby there is notable level of local expenditure that is lost to facilities outside the District, and there is likely to be scope for claw back of expenditure if new high quality and managed retail floorspace is secured in Lancaster. Notwithstanding the improvements seen in Zone 1, in the wider Study Area the results show that Lancaster city centre comparison goods market share has declined from 19.3% in 2006 to 16.0% in 2013, representing a 3.3 percentage point reduction (or a 17% decline). The results show that Lancaster city centre’s market shares in Zones 1 to 7 (Except Zone 5) have all declined since 2006. At the same time the results show that the popularity of the existing retail parks (and standalone stores) has increased; but their increased usage has allowed the overall retention level across the district to increase from 27.6% in 2006 to 31.4% by 2013. With a clear reduction in the city centre’s retention of comparison goods trade it is evident that there is a qualitative need to improve the retail offer within the city centre in response to the decline in market share since 2006. It is probable that any improvement in the retail offer in the city centre could first claw back trips and expenditure from surrounding retail parks as well as then draw additional people from the wider area. This would need to be considered in more detail once detailed plans for improvements in the city centre evolve.

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6.58

As set out previously, the market share for clothing and footwear good types is low at 27.6% when compared to other comparison goods types (DIY, electrical, CD, Books, Small household etc) which all have a market share of between 33% to 41%. As explored in section 5 we found that the decline (3.6 percentage points) in the city centre’s clothing and footwear market share was principally due to the increased sales of such goods towards supermarkets within the district. With a combined comparison goods market share of 31.3% we believe that through positive intervention the city could seek to aspire to a market share of at least 35% which would represent a 3.7 percentage point increase from that currently achieved. This would mainly need to be delivered through the enhancement of the clothing and footwear sector through positive intervention in a preferably central location to help facilitate those levels achieved in other comparison goods sectors. Improvements in the clothing and footwear sector should form part of the town centre first policy strategy which seeks to improve the clothing and footwear retail offer in the city centre which will first stem and reverse clothing and footwear shopping patterns towards supermarket facilities (and other out-of-centre locations). This would represent an 11% increase overall. We have also assumed that the inflow would increase from 16% to 18% or a 2 percentage point increase (or 12.5%) which is comparable to the increase in market share.

6.59

Table 6.16 shows the potential comparison good expenditure capacity that could be realised through achieving enhanced market share of 35% through qualitative improvement to the retail offer. This enhanced position shows that the expenditure would increase to £61.0m at 2018 (previously £4.5m) to £92.3m at 2023 (previously £26.9m), to £140.9m at 2028 (previously £63.9m) and to £173.6m at 2031 (previously £89.1m). This capacity is also based on the assumption that SFT (Special Forms of Trading) forecasts increase as predicted over the plan period, however, WYG would recommend that SFT gains are regularly reviewed (yearly) as more up to date information is sourced as it may have implications on future tangible floorspace requirements. Similarly given the fluidity of retail sales over the last two to three years there may be merit in regularly monitoring (yearly rather than every 5 years) expenditure growth rates to ensure that a more reliable and sound position is provided which better reflects market conditions.

Table 6.16: Enhanced Market Share Analysis

2013

Benchmark Turnover (£m) 370.8

Derived Available Expenditure (£m) 370.8

Surplus Expenditure (£m) 0.0

2018

411.0

471.9

61.0

2023

454.6

547.0

92.3

2028

501.9

642.8

140.9

2031

532.7

706.2

173.6

Year

Notes: The City’s overall market share will increase from 31.3% to 35% in the Study Area with inflow increasing from 16% to 18%

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6.60

Drawing on the enhanced expenditure capacity in Table 6.16 we have adjusted this to remove the extant planning permissions currently in Lancaster (assuming 90% implemented). Table 6.17, shows that after these commitments are accounted for there is identified capacity for major new comparison goods development in the short term up to 2018 based on a market share of 35%, whereby a capacity of between 9,700 sq.m (net) and 16,100 sq.m (net) can be realised based on a residual capacity of £53.6m (previously between -500 sq.m (net) and -900 sq.m (net)). At 2023, WYG estimates that a residual capacity of £84.2m will be available to support new development of between 13,700 sq.m (net) and 22,900 sq.m (net), with the residual capacity set to increase to £131.8m by 2028, and to £164.0m by 2031. Dependent on format and operator, we estimate that there will be a need for an additional 22,800 sq.m to 38,100 sq.m of additional comparison goods floorspace up to 2031. However, this will ultimately depend on the end tenants that can be secured and we would also recommend that any capacity identified in the period beyond 2018 should be considered with a degree of caution as a number of assumptions may change in the future which could ultimately change this capacity.

Table 6.17: Enhanced Market Share– After Commitments Year

Comparison Goods £m Surplus

6.61

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m net)

Extant

Residual

Min

Max

53.6

9,700

16,100

2013

0.0

2018

61.0

7.4

2023

92.3

8.2

84.2

13,700

22,900

2028

140.9

9.0

131.8

19,500

32,500

2031

173.6

9.6

164.0

22,800

38,100

The results show that if the Council seek to stem the current decline of the city centre market share and improve the overall retail offer (focused on clothing and footwear sector enhancement) leading to an improved market share then it will require a stepped change which would require a significant new level of floorspace to be facilitate to support the desired aspiration. The min level of floorspace at 2031 would be comparable to the current provision in the city centre (at approximately 20,900 sq.m net), but significantly more than that (13,400 sq.m) currently located at the main outlying retail parks (Lancaster City, Bulk Road and Kingsway).

6.62

In terms of convenience goods retailing, we have identified that market shares in the city’s principal areas (Zones 1, 2 and 3,) are extremely high (+90%) with limited or no outflow of expenditure with high levels also achieved in Zone 6 (+80%). The level of trade retention has also increased since 2006 in Zone 1 in both main food and top up food, as a result of new supermarket provision being introduced in Zone 1 (and Zone 2). The results suggest that convenience goods shopping patterns 68

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are very sustainable. The results show that through improved offer in the city centre both in terms of the main food (Sainsbury’s extension at Cable Street) and top up food (through improved convenience/local store formats being introduced) the market share has improved to that found in 2006. The household survey indicates that, whilst the overall market share has increased since 2006, there have been shifts in local convenience goods shopping patterns in Zone 1 to the city centre. The dominance of out-of-centre facilities is still significant, whereby 58% of main shopping and 44% of top up food trips are undertaken at such facilities. Despite improvements in the city centre convenience goods retention since 2006 there would appear to be a qualitative need to improve to the city centre’s convenience goods provision in the short to medium term.

6.63

In terms of Morecambe (Zone 2), the introduction of the Sainsbury’s and Asda at Lancaster Road has changed local shopping patterns. Notwithstanding this, the retention of main food trade in Zone 2 has declined by 1.6 percentage points but the retention of top up food has increased by +3.6 percentage point increase since 2006. The new Sainsbury’s and Asda stores have both increased local choice and competition taking significant (10 percentage points) trade from both the Asda at Ovangle Road and the Morrisons at Central Drive. Since 2006 the results show that the popularity of the Aldi store has increased significantly in Zone 2. The results show that facilities in Zone 2 claim approximately 78.3% of the main food shopping trips that occur in Zone 2. However, 91% of these trips are being undertaken at out-of-centre facilities in the area. Whilst there is a clear need to address the over dominance of the out-of-centre destinations, there is a qualitative need to redirect such trips to a more central location that is well linked to Morecambe town centre, this may be further emphasised by the reduced popularity of the Morrisons store at Central Drive. However, over the next five years we expect the Sainsbury’s at Lancaster Road to mature as its turnover and popularity increases thus helping to reduce the dominance and overtrading of the Morrisons store. We also expect the any increase in new provision in Zone 1 will draw trade from existing facilities in Zone 2 as well as reduce the need of Zone 1 residents to travel to facilities in Zone 2, together we believe that over the next five years and subject to the implementation of extant planning permission the level of over trading in Zone 2 will diminish to that set out in the quantitative assessment.

6.64

In terms of Carnforth (Zone 6), the results show that overall the market share for both main food and top food has declined since 2006, this is despite improvements made by the out-of-centre Tesco at Carnforth. The results also show that the town centre’s market share (main food) has declined since 2006 from 14.8% to 12.2%. Notwithstanding this Carnforth town centre’s top up food market share has increased from 19.4% in 2006 to 28.1%.

The changes to local shopping patterns in Zone 6

around Carnforth show changing circumstances in the Zone, which has been affected by the improved popularity (main food) of the Aldi at Marine Road West and the Asda (former Netto) at Lancaster Road both located in Zone 2 as well as the new Sainsbury at Lancaster Road. This has lead to a decline in 69

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the town centre’s overall market share. Therefore there may be a qualitative need to seek to improve the existing provision either through improvements to the existing Booths store or through new provision that is well connected / linked to the town centre in order to claw back trips currently now being undertaken at facilities in Zone 2 mainly in out-of-centre locations. WYG understands that an Aldi foodstore is proposed off Scotforth Road immediately to the rear of the existing Booths store, this store is likely to stem current shopping trips currently being undertaken to facilities in Zone 2 and will address some of this over trading but also help retain more shoppers to facilities in Zone 6. We believe that the proposed Aldi will deliver the qualitative improvements required for Carnforth and help improve choice and competition to the Tesco store and reduce the need of residents to travel to facilities in Zone 2 (and 1).

6.65

In terms of comparison goods retailing, the results show that since 2006 there has been a marked decline in the market share the city centre, which can be attributed to the increased popularity of out of centre retailing, including the main retail parks and supermarkets which together provide a significant level of floorspace. We recommend that any qualitative improvements should be focused towards improving the comparison goods offer within Lancaster city centre, but especially focused towards improving the clothing and footwear provision in the city centre. The majority of these improvements could be secured through a mixed (retail led) use development around the Canal Corridor North site. WYG would recommend that given Lancaster city’s wider role in both the local and regional economy it should see the majority of any capacity identified for the district as a whole and should be looking to a seek a comprehensive expansion of the city centre that could seek to provide between 24,000 and 40,000 sq.m (net) of new floorspace over the plan period. We also believe that any qualitative improvement to the city centre retail offer will claw back expenditure that is now being spent at the outlying retail parks and help reverse past trends of decentralisation of activity but also help to stem the leakage to facilities outside the wider Study Area. In accordance with the sequential approach central areas should be the first preference for any other additional retail development before edge or other out-of-centre sites area considered. However, such sites need to be clearly demonstrated to be real world opportunity that are both viable and suitable and ready available to facilitate comprehensive redevelopment.

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7.0 Retail Capacity (Scenario 1) Employment-Led Growth 7.01

In terms of the emerging evidence to the emerging Local Plan, the Council is reviewing future household projections and housing needs over the future plan period in accordance with paragraph 159 of the NPPF. Turley Associates (TA) has prepared a detailed and independent Housing Requirements Study (IHRS) looking at population growth to 2031. As part of this review TA have considered five population projection scenario’s including SNPP 2010 which rebases the ONS 2010 base dataset to ensure consistency with the 2011 Census population estimates; a migration led scenario; a natural change scenario; employment-led scenario and finally a balanced commuting scenario. WYG note that the SNPP 2010 scenario is comparable to our baseline capacity position considered in Section 6.

7.02

For thoroughness, and for our Scenario 1 population model, we have adopted the Employment led scenario set out by TA in the IHRS which identifies a population increase of approximately 2,750 people between the SNPP 2010 and their Employment Led scenario between 2011 and 2031. For the purposes of this retail scenario, we have simply pro-rotated the population increases across Zones 1, 2, 3 and 6 which cover the district’s administrative area. Unlike the IHRS we have not reviewed the type, tenure and location of new housing but purely considered the increase in population above and beyond the baseline position.

7.03

As indicated by Table 7.1 (which updates Table 6.1), under growth ‘Scenario 1’ the identified Study Area is estimated to contain a resident population 391,109 people at 2018 rising to 399,540 people at 2023 and to 408,2017 people at 2028 and 412,909 by 2031. This equates to a greater increase in the Study Area population of 2,748 people (just a 0.7% increase) when compared to the baseline position set out in Section 6.

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Table 7.1: Scenario 1 Population by Survey Zone (2013 to 2031) Zone 1

2013 55,594

2018 58,542

2023 61,545

2028 64,764

2031 66,743

2

51,481

52,777

54,160

56,057

57,095

3

8,413

8,638

8,841

9,081

9,197

4

30,035

30,436

31,065

31,540

31,718

5

14,429

14,579

14,711

14,915

14,970

6

23,084

23,432

23,756

24,205

24,433

7

11,447

11,323

11,255

11,234

11,191

8

28,324

29,153

30,107

31,024

31,586

9

12,963

12,609

12,444

12,295

12,221

11

86,872

87,613

88,610

89,216

89,502

13

18,543

18,715

19,052

19,305

19,413

15

20,061

20,312

20,525

20,723

20,793

16

22,469

22,980

23,468

23,858

24,047

Total (S1)

383,715

391,109

399,540

408,217

412,909

Baseline

383,715

390,422

398,166

406,156

410,161

0

687

1,374

2,061

2,748

Difference

Table 1 (S1) of Appendix 3 Source: 2013 data derived from Experian Micromarketer G3 data and adjusted to reflect IHRS (2013)

7.04

In order to identify the available expenditure under this population scenario, we have again applied the convenience and comparison per capita expenditure data sources from Experian Micromarketer G3 data and applied this to the adjusted population estimates.

7.05

As would be expected greater expenditure growth is forecast under ‘Scenario 1’, with the estimated resident population generating £755.0m of convenience goods expenditure at 2018; this is just £1.3m more than the baseline position. Convenience goods expenditure is then forecast to increase to £871.8m by 2031 that represents an increase of £137.0m. This compares to the baseline growth of £131.5m between 2013 and 2031, representing an additional £5.5m of expenditure due to the increased population.

Table 7.2 ‘Scenario 1’ Total Available Expenditure – Convenience (£m)

2013 Baseline Scenario 1 Difference

734.8 734.8 0.0

2018 753.7 755.0 1.3

2023 794.6 797.2 2.6

2028 837.9 841.9 4.0

2031 866.3 871.8 5.5

Growth

Growth

Growth

Growth

20132018 19.0 20.2 1.3

20132023 59.9 62.5 2.6

20132028 103.2 107.2 4.0

20132031 131.5 137.0 5.5

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Table 2 (S1) of Appendix 3

7.06

Using population growth ‘Scenario 1’, it is estimated that the Study Area population will generate £1,144.6m of comparison goods expenditure at 2018 (again, excluding special forms of trading), which is forecast to increase to £1,721.0m by 2031, representing an increase of £701.2m. This compares to the baseline growth of just £690.3 between 2013 and 2031, representing an additional £11.0m of expenditure.

Table 7.3 ‘Scenario 1’ Total Available Expenditure – Comparison (£m)

Baseline Scenario 1 Difference

Growth

Growth

Growth

Growth

20132018

20132023

20132028

20132031

2013

2018

2023

2028

2031

1,019.8

1,142.7

1,324.4

1,556.4

1,710.0

123.0

304.6

536.7

690.3

1,019.8

1,144.6

1,328.7

1,564.0

1,721.0

124.9

309.0

544.2

701.2

0.0

1.9

4.4

7.6

11.0

1.9

4.4

7.6

11.0

Table 7 (S1) of Appendix 3 (may not add up due to rounding)

Future Quantitative Capacity for Convenience Goods (Scenario 1) 7.07

The quantitative exercise undertaken at Section 6 has been followed again to consider the implications of the population growth set out in Scenario 1 at the district level only to provide a more broad indication on the relative difference in available expenditure facilitated by the increased population.

Lancaster (District) – ‘Scenario 1’ 7.08

Through the application of the higher population growth ‘Scenario 1’, Table 7.4 identifies an estimated expenditure surplus for Lancaster (district) of £33.5m at 2013 (beyond the expected benchmark turnover of existing stores), which is expected to grow to £46.7m at 2018, to £63.0m at 2023, to £79.7m at 2028 and to £90.5m by 2031. This represents an increase in the baseline position of £0.5m at 2018, £1.0m at 2023, £1.6m by 2028 and £2.2m at 2031.

Table 7.4: Estimated Capacity for Convenience Goods Facilities in Lancaster under ‘Scenario 1’ Year

Turnover - £m

2013 2018

263.0

Available Expenditure - £m

Surplus Expenditure - £m

258.0

296.6 304.7

33.5 46.7

2023

258.8

321.8

63.0

2028

260.0

339.8

79.7

2031

261.4

351.9

90.5

Table 30a (S1) (Table 1) of Appendix 3

7.09

With the increase level of population estimated across the Study Area has increased the level of surplus expenditure by just £2.2m over the plan period and this will be available above and beyond

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that identified for new facilities in the baseline position. Table 7.5 shows that despite with increased population extant planning permissions still absorb most of the identified capacity in the short up to 2018, which still suggests that limited new provision should be actively promoted at this point in time (and above that indicated in the baseline).

Table 7.5: Quantitative Need for Additional Convenience Goods Floorspace in Lancaster (District) under ‘Scenario 1’ Year

Convenience Goods £m Residual (from

Floorspace Requirement (Net)

Implemented

Residual Expenditure

Min

Max

Table 7.4) 2013 2018

33.5 46.7

26.6

20.1

1,700

4,100

2023

63.0

26.7

36.3

3,100

7,400

2028

79.7

26.8

52.9

4,500

10,800

2031

90.5

27.0

63.5

5,400

12,900

Table 32 (S1) (Table 1b) of Appendix 3

7.10

The ‘Scenario 1’ position shows that there would be a residual capacity of £63.5m at 2031 this compares to a baseline residual capacity of £61.3m at 2031. The results show that even with increased population growth as a result of the Employment Led scenario on population growth, there is no additional capacity for convenience floorspace at district level at 2018 and beyond those already committed and based on the current market share being sustained at the baseline position (between 1,700 sq.m and 4,100 sq.m (net). Between an extra 200 sq.m (net) and 500 sq.m (net) floorspace would be required above that identified in the baseline position by 2031. Therefore if the Employment Led scenario strategy is adopted it will not result in any material change to future retail capacity above that identified in the baseline position. Given the relatively limited difference the population increases derived from the Employment Led scenario it is not considered necessary to review the capacity for each of the main town centres/Zones again.

Future Quantitative Capacity for Comparison Goods (Scenario 1) 7.11

The quantitative exercise in Section 6 has been repeated again to consider the implications of the population growth set out in ‘Scenario 1’. Full tabulations are available in Appendix 3.

Lancaster (Global) – ‘Scenario 1’ 7.12

Under growth ‘Scenario 1’, Table 7.6 indicates that the comparison goods facilities across the district could claim in the order of £625.7m (compared to £621.7m at baseline) of comparison goods expenditure (both bulky and non-bulky), generated within the Study Area at 2031. Assuming this market share is maintained and ‘rolled forward’ through future years, given increases in forecast 74

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comparison goods expenditure and projected increases in the Study Area population, we estimate that by 2018 an additional £5.2m (compared to £4.5m at baseline) originating from the Study Area will be spent on comparison goods. After allowing for an adjustment in the turnover efficiency of existing floorspace over the same period, a surplus of £28.5m is available at 2023 (compared to £26.9m at baseline) to support additional floorspace. This identified surplus is forecast to increase to £93.1m at 2031 (compared to £89.1m at baseline). This shows that Scenario 1 will increase overall capacity by £4.0m at 2031 when compared to the baseline position.

Table 7.6: Estimated Capacity for Comparison Goods Facilities in Lancaster (District) under ‘Scenario 1’ Year

Turnover - £m

Available Expenditure - £m

Surplus Expenditure - £m

370.8

370.8

0.0

2018

411.0

416.2

5.2

2023

454.6

483.1

28.5

2028 2031

501.9

568.6

66.7

532.7

625.7

93.1

2013

Table 32 (S1) (Table 1) of Appendix 3

7.13

Allowance of extant planning permission to the ‘Scenario 1’ position is shown in Table 7.7 below. The results show that, even with increased population growth as part of the Employment Led scenario, as with the baseline position there is capacity for between 11,600 sq.m (net) and 19,400 sq.m (net) for additional comparison floorspace at district level beyond those already committed when current market share is maintained. This is compared to 11,100 sq.m (net) and 18,400 sq.m identified in the baseline position, which is an extra 500 sq.m to 1,000 sq.m only.

Table 7.7: ‘Scenario 1’ Quantitative Need for Comparison Goods Floorspace in Lancaster (District) – Extant Planning Consents Year

Comparison Goods £m Residual (Taken from 7.6)

Floorspace Requirement (sq. m net)

Extant

Residual

Min

Max

2013 2018

0.0 5.2

7.4

-2.2

-400

-700

2023

28.5

8.2

20.3

3,300

5,500

2028

66.7

9.0

57.7

8,500

14,200

2031

93.1

83.5

11,600

19,400

9.6

Table 32 (S1) (Table 1b) of Appendix 3

7.14

As with the convenience good findings under Scenario 1, with the employment led scenario there is not significant capacity identified in Scenario 1 for comparison goods retailing above and beyond that identified in the baseline position and therefore depending on whether the Employment Led approach 75

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is taken forward within the new development, there is limited requirement to materially change the retail strategy to that set out in the baseline position.

7.15

In terms of the enhanced comparison goods market share for Lancaster as set out in section 6, by applying the employment led scenario to an increased market share of 35% (and inflow increase) it would lead to a requirement for between 23,500 sq.m (net) and 39,100 sq.m by 2031, which is an increase of between 700 sq.m and 1,000 sq.m only on the baseline position.

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8.0 Recommendations and Future Retail Strategy 8.01

The NPPF requires local planning authorities as part of their development plan to set out a strategy for the management and growth of centres over the plan period. Most particularly, paragraph 23 of the NPPF indicates that, as part of their strategy, authorities should, inter alia:



recognise town centres as the heart of their communities and pursue policies to support their viability and vitality;



define a network and hierarchy of centres that is resilient to anticipated future economic changes;



promote competitive town centres that provide customer choice and a diverse retail offer and which reflect the individuality of town centres;



allocate a range of suitable sites to meet the scale and type of retail, leisure, commercial, office, tourism, cultural, community and residential development needed in town centres;



allocate appropriate edge of centre sites for main town centre uses that are well connected to the town centre where suitable and viable town centre sites are not available. If sufficient edge of centre sites cannot be identified, set policies for meeting the identified needs in other accessible locations that are well connected to the town centre; and



set policies for the consideration of proposals for main town centre uses which cannot be accommodated in or adjacent to town centres.

8.02

Policy 26 of the NPPF also indicates that local planning authorities should set their own appropriate threshold relating to the quantum of floorspace above which an impact test for retail, leisure and office development will be required.

8.03

Each of the above matters is considered below in relation to Lancaster city and its principal centres.

Implications of Strategic Approach 8.04

Since 2006, the retail landscape across the UK has dramatically changed, whereby expenditure growth forecasts have been significantly suppressed (especially in the short term). This has been coupled with the increasing popularity of special forms of trading (specifically on-line sales). In addition to the above wider economic conditions, the retail landscape in Lancaster has changed since 2006 which will have implications on the future strategy. For example, a number of new foodstore of varying scales have been implemented helping to create more sustainable (main and top-up food) shopping patterns in the district as a whole as well as improvements to provision within Lancaster city centre. However, the results show that the dominance of out-of-centre facilities has increased since 2006. The results

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also show that although the market share for comparison goods retailing has improved since 2006 this is due to improved claims by the out-of-centre retail parks (and standalone facilities) whilst the retention of comparison goods trade in the city centre has declined.

8.05

In light of these changes, the strategic approach for the city would be to focus and direct new comparison goods floorspace towards the city centre. In seeking to enhance the current market share, we estimate that through the introduction of between (approximately) 23,000 and 38,000 sq.m (net)30 of new floorspace would significantly strengthen Lancaster’s position in the long term. The only available and suitable location to accommodate such growth would be the Canal Corridor North site which is a logical extension to the city centre given the historical and physical constraints of the built environment elsewhere in the city. Given that the market share for the city centre has already declined since 2006 we believe that it is achievable and will help arrest further leakage of trade to the retail parks and supermarkets, but also provide an improved choice and enhancement of the existing retail offer in the city centre. The main focus of any qualitative improvement should be towards the clothing and footwear sector which performs significantly below other comparison goods sectors and therefore any scheme in the city centre should be orientated to introducing such operators to the city centre and will help address the clear deficiency in this important sector. To deliver such improves to the city as a retail destination there will need to be ‘stepped change’ to provide well managed and serviced accommodation that would bring new end users to the city. Any such strategy should seek to enhance the current declining market share through positive intervention and through introduction of modern well managed retail space. The improvement to the retail offer in the city centre may also help towards minimising the growth in online sales in the area, and recoup expenditure that has otherwise been forecast to be spent online. Indeed, any city centre proposal that embraces and actively encourages innovative multi-channelling will ensure that it maximises locally generated expenditure which may provide demand for further floorspace.

8.06

It will also be important to consider providing not only large and flexible space units to the city centre but also smaller and affordable units. Such units should be attractive not only to multiples but also independent or niche retailers/operators to ensure that a diverse range of operators can be secured. Such a strategy would help to not only attract key anchor tenants to the city but also balance and retain Lancaster’s uniqueness which complements the city’s built heritage characteristics and vernacular. Such a strategy would also allow the city to be more resilient to change like that experienced over the last five years with the collapse of major national multiples. In recent years there has been a challenging retail market which has seen investment markedly polarised and with increasing focus on larger centres. However, Lancaster as a sub regional centre with long established deficiency in its retail offer (especially in clothing and footwear sector) has significant potential to ‘tap

30

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in’ to a significant level of expenditure to sustain measured qualitative improvements to the retail offer.

8.07

In addition to the strategic approach to improve the comparison goods retail offer within the city centre, WYG believe that there is also scope for an improved convenience goods offer to be focus around Canal Corridor North site which could act as a significant anchor to the development but also help to address the over dominance of out-of-centre foodstores and bring increased patronage through the encouragement of linked trips to the wider city centre. This could be through a modest foodstore rather than a supermarket or superstore format which will facilitate a diverse shopping experience not only focused around non-food (comparison) goods and leisure activity and thus encourage a mixed use approach to the site. In addition, such a scheme will not only be focused on shopping facilities but also provide more leisure related activities including restaurant and beverage, commercial leisure to help increase diversity and dwell time for users which will increase the overall vibrance of the city not just during the day but also during the evening. Such activity can be increased through introducing other land uses such as residential, education, cultural and health facilities that can add to activity.

8.08

In terms of Morecambe, the strategic approach for the town centre is more difficult to establish, whilst the town centre’s overall market share for main food shopping has improved since 2006 it top up shopping penetration has declined mainly as a result from increased competition from other out-ofcentre facilities across both Zones 1 and 2. Like Lancaster city centre over recent years, one opportunity will be to encourage more local/convenience format stores to be encouraged into the main town centre, to help reverse the decline in top up shopping. Since 2006 the Morrisons on Central Drive has seen a marked reduction in its dominance on local shopping patterns, this may have lead to a decrease in linked trips between the store and Morecambe town centre. However, conversely, the Aldi store on Marine Road West has increased its popularity significantly since 2006, which reflects Aldi’s improved trading performance experienced nationally. Therefore, any strategy would have to identify an area of land that are well linked and connected to the town centre to provide a modest foodstore that could first help to encourage more convenience trips to the central areas of Morecambe but also then encourage more linked trips. Notwithstanding this, the Morecambe area is well provided for with all the main four operators located in Zone 2 and therefore any improvement may need to concentrate on qualitative improvement to the existing foodstores rather than providing a new supermarket. Although a quantitative need has been identified in Zone 2, we believe that the Sainsbury’s needs to be given more time to mature its trading platform and to reduce the dominance of the Morrison and Asda stores in Zone 2, as stated in section 6, improved provision in both Zone 1 and 6 will also in our view reduce some of the over trading experienced in Zone 2 and therefore this quantitative need is likely to be reduced over the next five years as these commitments 79

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are implemented and this should be monitored. We believe that with increase provision in Zone 1 this will create more equitable trading patterns over the next five years.

8.09

In terms of comparison goods provision in Morecambe, existing facilities are trading at or above expected levels mainly driven by inflow or tourist spend to the town centre. The results show a capacity of between 3,500 sq.m and 6,000 sq.m (net) up to 2031. Such a level of floorspace is between 24% and 40% of the current (comparison goods) floorspace located within the town centre and of a comparable scale to that at the Bulk Road Retail Park. Encouraging such a level of floorspace at or around Morecambe town centre whilst providing potential regeneration benefits to the town (like those achieved through the Central Drive area) may reduce the availability of expenditure to support an improved city centre offer at Lancaster and therefore a careful balance between Lancaster city centre and Morecambe town centre will need to be considered to ensure that the Canal Corridor North site is delivered first and whether such development is delivered after the Heysham Link Road is delivered.

8.10

In relation to Carnforth, the strategic approach does not seek to identify any significant improvement to the comparison goods role and offer within the town, which functions more as a district centre providing more local convenience and service function to residents in the northern area of the district. In terms of the strategic approach for convenience goods, we would recommend that more local / convenience formats are pursued and this can be achieved through the introduction of Aldi on the edge of the town centre. The foodstore is well connected to the rest of the town centre and is likely to provide link trips that would benefit the centre in the longer term. The results show that the Tesco at Scotforth Road and the new Sainsbury’s and Asda at Lancaster Road have all made gains on increased market share in Zone 6, therefore we believe that the new Aldi will help be reverse this movement of trade through improved provision in a well located location to Carnforth town centre. The new Aldi will also help reverse the significant level of trade from Zone 6 which is now spent Aldi at Morecambe Road and Marine Road West. Above this commitment, WYG do not recommend any intervention at this time.

Hierarchy / Town Centre Boundaries / Local Thresholds 8.11

This Phase 1 element of the work has principally considered the retail strategy based on the consideration of future capacity and need for new retail floorspace only. However, from review of the level of trade retention of existing centres, we can confirm that the proposed retail hierarchy set out in Policy ER4 of the Core Strategy seems appropriate. However, any further work within Phase 2 will allow WYG to conclude on the final hierarchy in more detail. In addition, and subject to Phase 2 work being undertaken in 2014, which will consider the wider performance and vitality and viability of the 80

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existing centres in Lancaster. Further advice will be provided as part of that review on the town centre and primary shopping area (and frontages) policy as well as consideration of identifying an appropriate local threshold framework for the purposes of managing the requirement for retail impact assessments as required through paragraph 26 of the NPPF.

81

WYG Planning and Environment

creative minds safe hands


Appendices


Appendix 1 – NEMS Household Survey


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 1 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Q01 Where did you last go to undertake your main food and grocery shopping? Excl. DK, Don't do, Internet Zone 1

Aldi, Morecambe Road, Lancaster Asda, Ovangle Road, Lancaster Booths, Hala Road, Scotforth, Lancaster Co-operative Food, Chapel Street, Lancaster Farmfoods, Parliament Street, Lancaster Local shops, Lancaster City Centre Marks & Spencer, Penny Street, Lancaster Sainsbury's Local, Penny Street, Lancaster Sainsbury's, Cable Street, Lancaster Tesco Express, King Street, Lancaster

1.0% 7.1%

16

5.7%

118 25.3%

13

0.5%

56 17.3%

1

1.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.6%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

41 11.6%

4

1.4%

2 10.0%

6

5.0%

5

1.3%

1

1.6%

2

0.0%

0

0.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.2%

21

7.0%

15

0.0%

0

8.4%

3

1.3%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.7%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

1.4%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

1.0%

2

0.0%

0

0.8%

0

0.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

0

0.0%

0

1.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

109 37.9%

84

0.9%

2 34.9%

12

2.7%

4

7.6%

4

2.8%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.6% 0.1%

1

0.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.9%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.3%

22

1.7%

4

4.3%

10

0.9%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

0

6.4%

6

1.6%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.5%

58

9.5%

21

8.0%

19 20.6%

7

1.5%

2

1.4%

1

6.9%

7

0.7%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

0.3%

1

0.6%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.4%

1

0.6%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

4

0.0%

0

1.8%

4

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3% 7.4%

5 121

0.0% 4.8%

0 1.2% 11 40.5%

3 96

1.6% 5.7%

1 2

0.7% 0.0%

1 0

1.0% 2.4%

1 1

0.0% 9.7%

0 10

0.0% 0.9%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.7%

0 1

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

3.5%

57

2.3%

5 16.7%

40

0.8%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

9.5%

10

1.5%

1

0.7%

1

1.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Zone 2

Aldi, Marine Road West, Morecambe Asda (Former Netto), Lancaster Road, Morecambe Booths, The Square, Lancaster Road, Torrisholme, Morecambe Co-operative Food, Glentworth Road West, Morecambe Co-operative Food, Regent Road, Morecambe Iceland, Royalty Mall, Arndale Centre, Morecambe Lidl, Westgate, Morecambe Morrisons, Central Drive, Morecambe Sainsbury's, Lancaster Road, Morecambe Tesco Express, 47 Heysham

170413

0.0%

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Road, Heysham, Morecambe Tesco Metro, Royalty Mall, Arndale Centre, Morecambe

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 2 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

0.7%

12

0.0%

0

4.2%

10

0.9%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.6%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.8%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.8%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.2%

20

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.3%

0 15.0%

20

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

0

2.3%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

4

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.0%

4

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0% 1.5%

1 24

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 3.1%

0 0.5% 1 16.9%

1 22

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.9%

0 1

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.3%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

17

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

0

0.0%

0 24.9%

14

0.6%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.4%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.6%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

16

0.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.4%

1 11.4%

12

5.7%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.8%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.5%

41

0.7%

2

0.9%

2

0.8%

0

0.0%

0

2.7%

2 30.5%

31

6.5%

3

0.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Zone 3

Co-operative Food, Hornby Road, Caton, Lancaster Marks & Spencer Simply Food, J 32-33 M6 Northbound, White Carr Lane, Lancaster Zone 4

Booths, Park Hill Road, Garstang Co-operative Food, High Street, Garstang Co-operative Food, Lancaster Road, Knott End-on-Sea Local shops, Garstang Town Centre Local shops, Great Eccleston Sainsbury's, Park Hill Road, Garstang Spar, Lancaster Road, Cabus, Garstang Spar, Lancaster Road, Knott End-on-Sea Zone 5

Booths, Dodgeson Croft Road, Kirkby Lonsdale Co-operative Food, Main St, Ingleton Co-operative Food, Main Street, High Bentham Co-operative Food, New Road, Ingleton Local shops, Kirkby Lonsdale Town Centre Spar, Main Street, Bentham Zone 6

Booths, Scotland Road, Carnforth Co-operative Food, Market Street, Carnforth Tesco Superstore, Lodge

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 3 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Quarry, Lancaster Road, Carnforth Zone 7

Averys, Silverdale Road, Arnside, Cumbria Booths, Parkhouse Lakeland, Park Road, Milnthorpe Co-operative Food, Emesgate Lane, Silverdale Londis, The Promenade, Arnside

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

10

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.8%

1 11.5%

6

0.0%

0

4.9%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.7% 8.5% 1.2%

27 140 20

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.7% 0.0% 0.0%

1 2.7% 0 20.6% 0 0.0%

2 12 0

1.0% 8.3% 0.0%

1 6.9% 8 42.7% 0 5.1%

9 9.0% 49 39.6% 15 5.7%

5 22 3

0.0% 0.5% 0.0%

0 2.8% 2 20.4% 0 0.0%

2 4.9% 16 11.3% 0 0.0%

4 9 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.3% 0.4%

5 7

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 2.2%

0 2

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

5.8%

96

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.3%

2

0.6%

1 11.2%

6 34.1%

45 12.4%

7

0.0%

0 35.4%

28 10.0%

8

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.0%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

16

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.1%

16

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.2%

20

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.2%

20

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

7.7%

127

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.7%

3 32.7%

125

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.5%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.8%

29

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.9%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.1%

3

4.9%

19

7.5%

6

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.4%

6

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.6%

6

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.8%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Zone 8

Aldi, Appleby Road, Kendal Asda, Burton Road, Kendal Booths, Wainwrights Yard, Kendal Iceland, Highgate, Kendal Marks & Spencer, Library Road, Kendal Morrisons, Queen Katherines Avenue, Kendal

0.0% 0.9%

4 6.9% 22 37.3% 3 11.2% 0 0

4.0% 2.4%

5 3

0.0% 1.8%

0 1

Zone 9

Co-operative Food, Kents Bank Road, Grange-over-Sands Local shops, Grange-over-Sands Town Centre Zone 11

Aldi (Former Netto), Risedale Road, Barrow-in-Furness Aldi, Hindpool Road, Barrow-in-Furness Asda, Walney Road, Barrow-in-Furness B&M, Dalton Road, Barrow-in-Furness Booths, Oubas Hill, Ulverston Cooltrader, Portland Walk, Barrow-in-Furness Co-operative Food, Duke Street, Askam-in-Furness Co-operative Food, Market Street, Ulverston Local shops,

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Barrow-in-Furness Town Centre Local shops, Ulverston Town Centre Marks & Spencer, Dalton Road, Barrow-in-Furness Morrisons, The Strand, Barrow-in-Furness Tesco Express, Market Street, Ulverston Tesco Express, Rawlinson Street, Barrow-in-Furness Tesco Extra, Corner House Park, Hindpool Road, Barrow-in-Furness Tesco Metro, Flass Lane, Barrow-in-Furness

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 4 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.8%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

4

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.1%

4

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.9%

65

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.8%

1 16.4%

63

1.8%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.5%

8

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

1

1.9%

7

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.4%

89

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.4%

2 22.5%

86

2.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.2%

20

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.3%

20

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

16

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.8%

1

0.0%

0 19.5%

15

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.6%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.8%

1

0.0%

0

0.3%

5

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.4%

5

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

1

0.0%

0

0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

1 1 2

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.6% 0.6% 2.2%

1 1 2

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.7%

3

0.0%

0

0.4%

6

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.3%

6

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

1

Zone 13

Booths, The Old Station, Victoria Street, Windermere Co-operative Food, Lake Road, Bowness-on-Windermere Co-operative Food, Oak Street, Windermere Morrisons, Main Road, Windermere Zone 15

Co-operative Food, Market Street, Kirkby Stephen Co-operative Food, Redmyne Road, Kirkby Stephen Co-operative Food, The Sands, Appleby-in-Westmorland Local Shops, Brough Local Shops, Sedbergh Spar, Boroughgate, Appleby-in-Westmorland Spar, Main Street, Sedbergh Zone 16

Booths , Berry Lane, Longridge Co-operative Food, Berry Lane, Longridge

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Sainsbury's, Inglewhite Road, Longridge

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 5 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

1.2%

20

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.0%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 19.0%

17

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.2%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

6

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.6%

5

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.8%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

1

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.9%

1

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Outside the Study Area, Allerdale

Booths, Tithebarn Street, Keswick Outside the Study Area, Blackburn with Darwen

Asda, Lower Audley Retail Park, Blackburn Local shops, Blackburn Town Centre Outside the Study Area, Blackpool

Aldi, Waterloo Road, Blackpool Asda, Cherry Tree Road, Marton, Blackpool Booths, Mormoss Road, Normoss, Blackpool Local shops, Blackpool City Centre Morrisons, Squires Gate, Blackpool Sainsbury's, Red Bank Road, Bispham, Blackpool Tesco Extra, Clifton Retail Park, Blackpool Outside the Study Area, Bradford

Asda, Manor Lane, Shipley Outside the Study Area, Burnley

Local shops, Burnley Town Centre Marks & Spencer, St James Street, Burnley Outside the Study Area, Carlisle

Aldi, Kingstown Road, Carlisle Local shops, Carlisle City Centre Outside the Study Area, Chorley

Tesco Extra, Ackhurst Park Industrial Estate, Foxhole Road, Chorley

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 6 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Outside the Study Area, Copeland

Local shops, Millom

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2% 0.0%

3 1

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

4.6% 0.0%

3 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.8%

0 1

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.4%

6

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

7.3%

6

0.0%

0

0.2%

4

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.8%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.3%

3

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

3

0.0%

0

1.2%

19

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 23.5%

19

0.0%

0

0.5%

9

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 10.6%

9

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.6%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.9%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.9%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Outside the Study Area, Craven

Booths, Kirkgate, Settle Morrisons, Broughton Road, Skipton Tesco Superstore, Craven Street, Skipton Outside the Study Area, Eden

Aldi, Ullswater Road, Penrith Booths, Westgate House, Brunswick Road, Penrith Co-operative Food, Main Street, Shap, Penrith Morrisons, Brunswick Road, Penrith Sainsbury's, Common Garden Square, Penrith Outside the Study Area, Fylde

Local Shops, Elswick Outside the Study Area, Harrogate

Local Shops, Harrogate Outside the Study Area, Hyndburn

Aldi, Argyle Street, Accrington Outside the Study Area, Leeds

Local shops, Leeds City Centre Outside the Study Area, Liverpool

Local shops, Liverpool City Centre Outside the Study Area, Manchester

Asda, Barton Dock Road, Manchester Outside the Study Area, Other

Tesco, Ashley Retail Park, Lugsdale Road, Widnes, Cheshire Outside the Study Area,

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 7 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Pendle

Aldi, North Valley Retail Park, Colne Asda, Corporation Street, Colne

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

3

0.3%

5

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.5%

4

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.9%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

1

2.0%

34

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 11.1%

15

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 21.5%

19

0.2% 0.1%

3 2

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

3.1% 1.9%

3 2

0.3%

5

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.3%

5

0.5%

9

0.0%

0

1.8%

4

0.0%

0

2.1%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.1%

2

0.5%

8

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

8.5%

8

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.4%

2

0.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.7%

3

0.6%

10

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 11.5%

10

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.5%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Outside the Study Area, Preston

Aldi, Blackpool Road, Preston Aldi, Corporation Street, Preston Asda, East Way, Fulwood, Preston Iceland, North Road, Preston Marks & Spencer, Deepdale Shopping Centre, Preston Morrisons, Mariners Way, Preston Sainsbury's, Flintoff Way, Preston Outside the Study Area, Ribble Valley

Booths, Station Road, Clitheroe Lidl, Shaw Bridge Street, Clitheroe Sainsbury's, Moor Lane, Clitheroe Tesco Superstore, Duck Street, Clitheroe Outside the Study Area, South Lakeland

Co-operative Food, Compston Road, Ambleside Local shops, Ambleside Town Centre Tesco Express, Market Place, Ambleside Outside the Study Area, South Ribble

Sainsbury's, Cuerdan Way, Bamber Bridge Waitrose, Capitol Centre, Walton-le-Dale Outside the Study Area, St Helens

Costco, Andover Road, Haydock

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 8 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Outside the Study Area, Wirral

Local Shops, Birkenhead

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.3%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.3%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2% 0.4%

3 6

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

1.8% 4.7%

2 6

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.6% 0.0%

1 0

0.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.8%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.9%

15

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 11.4%

15

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

5

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.2%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.0%

3

0.0%

0

Outside the Study Area, Wyre

Aldi, Crescent West, Thornton-Cleveleys Aldi, Poulton Road, Fleetwood Asda, Cop Lane, Fleetwood Booths, Ball Street, Poulton-le-Fylde Co-operative Food, Teanlowe Centre, Poulton-Le-Fylde Lidl, Anchorsholme Lane West, Thornton-Cleveleys Local shops, Poulton-le-Fylde Morrisons, Amounderness Way, Thornton-Cleveleys Others

(Don't know / can't remember) Other Weighted base: Sample:

1650 1652

220 197

238 196

35 96

131 147

56 93

111 80.0% 24 20.0%

50 81.5% 12 18.5%

135 151

62 99

102 98

52 99

131 147

55 95

381 194

78 95

81 97

89 98

44 87.5% 9 12.5%

116 75.8% 17 24.2%

45 84.7% 14 15.3%

332 80.4% 60 19.6%

67 85.9% 16 14.1%

74 81.7% 12 18.3%

76 17

Q01A Is this your usual destination to undertake your main food grocery shopping Yes No Weighted base: Sample:

170413

82.8% 1410 83.1% 17.2% 293 16.9% 1703 1701

186 80.2% 38 19.8%

193 81.6% 48 18.4%

223 201

241 199

30 82.4% 7 17.6% 37 100

86 83.6% 19 16.4% 105 102

NEMS market research

53 100

133 149

59 100

392 200

83 100

86 100

93 100


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 9 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Q01B Where is your usual destination to undertake your main food grocery shopping? Those whose response was not their usual main food destination at Q01 AND Excl. DK, Don't do, Internet Zone 1

Aldi, Morecambe Road, Lancaster Asda, Ovangle Road, Lancaster Booths, Hala Road, Scotforth, Lancaster Farmfoods, Parliament Street, Lancaster Marks & Spencer, Penny Street, Lancaster Sainsbury's Local, Penny Street, Lancaster Sainsbury's, Cable Street, Lancaster

3.3%

9 14.2%

5.4%

15 16.9%

2.4%

5

0.0%

0 19.3%

1

4.1%

1 13.1%

2

4.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6 14.3%

7

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

8.5%

1

9.2%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

7 17.0%

6

0.0%

0 14.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

1.9%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.0%

3

4.6%

2

1.8%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.4%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

1

2.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.3%

9 19.4%

6

1.8%

1 14.0%

1

0.0%

0

3.4%

0

3.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.6%

4

0.0%

0

5.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.0%

1

3.3%

1 10.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.2%

12

9.2%

3 13.9%

7

8.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

8.1%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.4%

1

0.0%

0

2.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

8.5%

24

2.5%

1 37.3%

17

6.5%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 23.6%

5

4.5%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.0%

14

2.7%

1 23.4%

11

4.7%

0

0.0%

0

8.5%

1

4.8%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

1.9%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

1

1.9%

1

0.0%

0

4.7%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.9%

11

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 12.3%

1 46.7%

10

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.1%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 25.8%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Zone 2

Aldi, Marine Road West, Morecambe Asda (Former Netto), Lancaster Road, Morecambe Co-operative Food, Regent Road, Morecambe Morrisons, Central Drive, Morecambe Sainsbury's, Lancaster Road, Morecambe Tesco Metro, Royalty Mall, Arndale Centre, Morecambe Zone 3

Co-operative Food, Hornby Road, Caton, Lancaster Zone 4

Booths, Park Hill Road, Garstang Local Shops, Knott End-on-Sea Sainsbury's, Park Hill Road, Garstang Spar, Lancaster Road, Cabus, Garstang Zone 5

Booths, Dodgeson Croft

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Road, Kirkby Lonsdale Local Shops, Hornby

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 10 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

8.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.3%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

9

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

8.5%

1 36.6%

7

6.5%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.5%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.1%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.5%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.5%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.9% 5.9% 1.3%

8 17 4

0.0% 5.5% 0.0%

0 2 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0.0% 0 23.6% 0 0.0%

0 3 0

0.0% 0.0% 3.3%

0 4.5% 0 43.0% 1 0.0%

0 16.2% 3 21.7% 0 7.8%

3 13.4% 3 12.6% 1 3.1%

2 2 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 22.4% 0 24.3% 0 0.0%

3 0.0% 4 0.0% 0 10.3%

0 0 1

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.5% 0.3% 1.3%

1 1 4

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0 0 0

1 1 1

0.0% 0.0% 3.1%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 7.7%

0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 10.3%

0 0 1

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0 0

6.1%

17

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 13.6%

1 35.8%

6 39.8%

5

0.0%

0 19.0%

3 18.3%

2

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.5%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.1%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

7.0%

19

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 32.5%

19

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

1.9%

5

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

0

7.0%

4

5.6%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

2.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.9%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.2%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Zone 6

Booths, Scotland Road, Carnforth Co-operative Food, Market Street, Carnforth Tesco Superstore, Lodge Quarry, Lancaster Road, Carnforth Zone 7

Averys, Silverdale Road, Arnside, Cumbria Booths, Parkhouse Lakeland, Park Road, Milnthorpe Co-operative Food, Emesgate Lane, Silverdale Local shops, Milnthorpe Zone 8

Aldi, Appleby Road, Kendal Asda, Burton Road, Kendal Booths, Wainwrights Yard, Kendal Iceland, Highgate, Kendal Local market, Kendal Marks & Spencer, Library Road, Kendal Morrisons, Queen Katherines Avenue, Kendal

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

8.3% 4.9% 5.3%

Zone 9

Co-operative Food, Kents Bank Road, Grange-over-Sands Zone 11

Aldi (Former Netto), Risedale Road, Barrow-in-Furness Aldi, Hindpool Road, Barrow-in-Furness Asda, Walney Road, Barrow-in-Furness Booths, Oubas Hill, Ulverston Co-operative Food, Ainslie Street, Barrow-in-Furness Marks & Spencer, Dalton Road, Barrow-in-Furness

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Morrisons, The Strand, Barrow-in-Furness Tesco Extra, Corner House Park, Hindpool Road, Barrow-in-Furness Tesco Metro, Flass Lane, Barrow-in-Furness

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 11 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

4.3%

12

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

7.6%

1 17.6%

11

3.9%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.0%

8

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

7.1%

1 12.5%

7

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.0%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.9%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

0

0.0%

0 13.3%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.9%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.8%

1

0.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.0%

1

0.3% 2.0%

1 6

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 5.4% 0 33.8%

1 6

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.3%

0

6.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Zone 13

Booths, The Old Station, Victoria Street, Windermere Co-operative Food, Main Street, Hawkshead Zone 15

Co-operative Food, Market Street, Kirkby Stephen Co-operative Food, Redmyne Road, Kirkby Stephen Co-operative Food, The Sands, Appleby-in-Westmorland Local shops, Appleby-in-Westmorland Town Centre Zone 16

Booths , Berry Lane, Longridge Co-operative Food, Berry Lane, Longridge Local shops, Longridge Sainsbury's, Inglewhite Road, Longridge Outside the Study Area, Allerdale

Booths, Tithebarn Street, Keswick Outside the Study Area, Blackburn with Darwen

Asda, Lower Audley Retail Park, Blackburn Outside the Study Area, Blackpool

Aldi, Waterloo Road, Blackpool Tesco Extra, Clifton Retail Park, Blackpool

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 12 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Outside the Study Area, Bradford

Asda, Manor Lane, Shipley

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.3%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.8%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 19.0%

2

0.0%

0

1.0%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 22.4%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Outside the Study Area, Burnley

Local shops, Burnley Town Centre Outside the Study Area, Carlisle

Aldi, Kingstown Road, Carlisle Outside the Study Area, Chorley

Tesco Extra, Ackhurst Park Industrial Estate, Foxhole Road, Chorley Outside the Study Area, Copeland

Local shops, Millom Outside the Study Area, Craven

Booths, Kirkgate, Settle Outside the Study Area, Eden

Aldi, Ullswater Road, Penrith Co-operative Food, King Street, Friargate, Penrith Morrisons, Brunswick Road, Penrith Sainsbury's, Common Garden Square, Penrith Outside the Study Area, Fylde

Local Shops, Elswick Outside the Study Area, Harrogate

Local Shops, Harrogate Outside the Study Area, Hyndburn

Aldi, Argyle Street, Accrington Outside the Study Area, Leeds

Local shops, Leeds City Centre Outside the Study Area, Liverpool

Local shops, Liverpool City Centre

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 13 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Outside the Study Area, Manchester

Asda, Barton Dock Road, Manchester

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.6%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

4.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

5.0%

1

1.9%

5

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 24.8%

4

2.2% 0.3%

6 1

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 10.4% 0 0.0%

6 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0 0

0.0% 4.5%

0 1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.7%

2

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 11.3%

2

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.4%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.2%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

3.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.5%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

6.1%

1

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Outside the Study Area, Other

Tesco, Ashley Retail Park, Lugsdale Road, Widnes, Cheshire Outside the Study Area, Pendle

Aldi, North Valley Retail Park, Colne Outside the Study Area, Preston

Aldi, Blackpool Road, Preston Asda, East Way, Fulwood, Preston Lidl, West Strand, Preston Morrisons, Mariners Way, Preston Outside the Study Area, Ribble Valley

Booths, Station Road, Clitheroe Sainsbury's, Moor Lane, Clitheroe Tesco Superstore, Duck Street, Clitheroe Outside the Study Area, South Lakeland

Co-operative Food, Compston Road, Ambleside Outside the Study Area, South Ribble

Sainsbury's, Cuerdan Way, Bamber Bridge Outside the Study Area, St Helens

Costco, Andover Road, Haydock Outside the Study Area, Wirral

Local Shops, Birkenhead Outside the Study Area, Wyre

Aldi, Crescent West, Thornton-Cleveleys

170413

NEMS market research


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Morrisons, Amounderness Way, Thornton-Cleveleys

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 14 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

1.1%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0 14.0%

3

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

Others

(Don't know / can't remember) Weighted base: Sample:

280 296

33 34

47 38

0.0%

7 20

22 26

11 17

19 22

8 17

16 19

13 24

60 29

15 17

12 15

16 18

Q02 Which retailer do you purchase your main food internet / home delivery shopping from? Those who use the internet at Q01 Asda Morrisons Iceland Sainsbury’s Tesco Ocado Other (Don't know / varies) Weighted base: Sample:

170413

30.7% 0.0% 1.4% 17.7% 46.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%

15 26.6% 0 0.0% 1 0.0% 9 73.4% 23 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 0.0%

1 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 40.8% 0 59.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

0 15.4% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 84.6% 1 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

0 79.2% 0 0.0% 0 20.8% 2 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

3 30.7% 0 0.0% 1 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 38.6% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 30.7%

2 65.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 35.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 0.0%

2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

49 44

3 4

2 2

2 4

3 3

6 6

2 3

NEMS market research

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

0 90.4% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 9.6% 1 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

4 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

0 14.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 14.8% 11 70.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

1 50.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 0.0% 4 49.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

3 21.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 79.0% 2 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0

0 0

1 1

4 5

11 6

5 5

5 3

4 2


Lancaster City Household Survey for WYG Planning & Environment

Zone Filtered Weighted: Total

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone 4

Zone 5

Zone 6

Zone 7

Page 15 April 2013 Zone 8

Zone 9

Zone 11 and 12

Zone 13

Zone 15

Zone 16

Q03 What is the main reason you choose (STORE MENTIONED AT Q01) to do your main food and grocery shopping? Accessibility by public 0.4% transport Car parking prices 0.1% Car parking provision 0.9% Choice of food goods 6.3% available Choice of shops nearby 0.6% selling non-food goods Choice of shops selling food 0.3% goods Cleanliness 0.4% Delivery service 2.1% Easy to get to by car 0.5% Entertainment / events 0.2% Good internal layout 1.5% Good service / friendly staff 1.0% Habit / always use it / 3.9% preference for retailer Internet shopping is 0.4% convenient Lower prices 17.8% Loyalty card / points scheme 1.0% Near to home 31.9% Near to work 2.4% Nice shopping environment 1.0% Only one in the area / no 0.4% other choice Preference for retailer 2.1% Provision of leisure facilities 0.1% nearby Provision of services nearby, 0.1% such as banks and other financial services Public information, signposts 0.0% and public facilities Quality of food goods 6.8% available Quality of shops selling food 0.3% goods Safety (during the day) 0.0% Safety (during the evening / 0.0% night time) Staff discount / work there 3.1% Value for money 3.1% Other 1.5%

170413

7

0.3%

1

0.7%

2

0.0%

0

0.5%

1

1.0%

1

0.0%

0

0.6%

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0

0.4%