THE FORECAST
Louisiana’s Economic Future
NAVIGATING THE
ROAD AHEAD
W
ith the fourth wave of the pandemic pushing a full economic recovery further down the road, it’s important that we reflect on how our economy is changing so we can capitalize on new emerging opportunities. For many, the COVID-19 pandemic has been an extended detour, providing an opportunity (or in some cases, forcing us) to reassess major aspects of our lives, jobs, and businesses. Our daily routines were turned upside down, creating more downtime, but also new stress. Schools worked tirelessly to reinvent education in real time. Vacations were canceled while outdoor recreation boomed and many across Louisiana gained a renewed appreciation of Louisiana as the Sportsman’s Paradise. For those fortunate to stay employed, the typical workday was reshaped by remote work and Zoom meetings, or PPE and social distancing, or all of the above. Businesses have navigated government-mandated closures, supply chain disruptions, and massive distortions in product demand. Ways of doing business that could have never been imagined have become the norm. labi.org
RETHINKING SYSTEMS & GOALS
After launching the Kathleen Babineaux Blanco Public Policy Center in August 2019, a new research center at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, we were finally getting key staff in place and had just hosted our first major event in March 2020 when the pandemic sent us on our own extended detour. In the earliest days of the pandemic, we were brought into the state’s efforts to forecast COVID cases; I served on the Louisiana Economic Recovery Task Force established by Senate President Page Cortez and House Speaker Clay Schexnayder to guide the legislative response; briefed Governor Edward’s Resilient Louisiana Commission; and served on the Unemployment Compensation and Trust Fund Task Force. We’ve spent much of the last year and a half tracking the economy, fielding myriad pandemic-related questions, and supporting several state agencies with research and data analysis to aide in navigating the rapidly changing environment. One theme that has become clear when looking at this moment in time is that we are in the midst of a rare opportunity to rethink systems and Louisiana Association of Business and Industry
BY STEPHEN BARNES
goals. While we have much work ahead to rebuild what was lost, we must do so in a way that is future oriented so we can push Louisiana to a path of long-term sustainable economic growth. According to the Current Employment Statistics, Louisiana lost more than 280,000 jobs between February and April 2020 (14% of pre-pandemic employment). An initial rebound added back nearly 100,000 jobs by the end of summer 2020 as businesses developed ways of adapting and reopening in the midst of the pandemic. Since that time, the recovery has been more sluggish with another 30,000 jobs added over the last year. Today, Louisiana is still sitting more than 150,000 jobs below pre-pandemic levels. Louisiana’s recovery has lagged the national economy where nearly 75% of lost jobs have come back. Louisiana has regained less than half. Louisiana’s poor performance is due in part to the importance of tourism and oil and gas to the state’s economy. Though some travelers have returned, tourism is still far from normal. For example, international travel, which brings the highest per-trip expendi-
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