Future Diet 2035 by Komal Faiz

FUTURE

DIETS

2035 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 8 12 40 52 60 84 86

Background Introduction Trends Scenarios Time Machine Strategies Conclusion References

Purpose:

This paper presents alternative futures for diets in 2035 using foresight methodologies explored in the Strategic Foresight and Innovation graduate program at OCAD University. It has been prepared for the Toronto District School Board (TDSB) as a guiding vision to evaluate and respond to school-wide food policies and practices for the benefit of all students.

Methodology: • Environmental scanning of trends and drivers

BACK GROUND 4

• Creation of 2x2 alternative scenarios based on critical uncertainties • Compelling enactment of a possible future through a Time Machine. Participants were invited to immerse in the experiential future and afterwards, join a discussion. • Strategy creation guided by all previous foresight activities, collective research, reflection and experience to create a preferable future.

Foresight is “a process which involves intensive iterative periods of open reflection, networking, consultation and discussion, leading to the joint refining of future visions and common ownership of strategies... It is the discovery of a common space for open thinking on the future and the incubation of strategic approaches” (Cassingena Harper, 2003).

Our Team

Michael Berman

Komal Faiz

Aday Sami-Orungbe

Vanessa Rementilla

Michael brings relentless curiosity about the consumer and a drive to create unexpected innovation to all of his engagements. Currently completing his Masters of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD University. Prior to his Masters, he honed his innovation craft and sensitivity for consumers leading strategy projects in many industries including retail, financial and automotive for both the corporate and agency side. He is passionate about business and entrepreneurship with a keen interest in futurism.

Komal is a social designer, a design thinker, a global shaper, and an activist. She’s the founder of “Design Pakistan,” an initiative that develops sustainable design interventions to serve and support communities. As part of her work experience, she has worked as a designer and consultant for various organizations, and has taught undergraduate visual communication design. Currently, a student of “Strategic Foresight and Innovation” and OCADU, her aim is to try and build bridges between design, empathy and social development.

Aday is a designer and engineer with flair for user-centered design and project development, her mission is to inspire growth using design principles. Currently completing his Masters of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD University. Prior to this program, she crafted her particular expertise in liaising with multiple Project Managers and project teams, managing multimedia projects, and contributing to the design of the web and print media components.

Vanessa is a senior creative director and strategist in the field of digital marketing. She is a principal advisor to entrepreneurs and corporations seeking to create or enhance their digital experiences that drive business growth. Grounded in deep research and data analytics, she applies user-centric methods to diverse digital marketing solutions in the areas of customer lifecycle management, 1:1 marketing, web, email, social media, and mobile design. Her experience spans a broad range of verticals with clients such as JP Morgan, Air Canada, and Swiss Chalet. Previously she has worked with Blast Radius (WPP Group), Thindata and Saatchi & Saatchi.

In the future, he will sail across the world!

In the future, Komal will be the founder of a notable global social innovation initiative.

In the future, Aday will be the first Minister of Design Affairs in Nigeria.

In the future, she is going to be credited for inventing the first multi-tasking clone.

INTRODUCTION

Our Stakeholder The Toronto District School Board

The Toronto District School Board (TDSB) is the largest and one of the most diverse school boards in Canada. It serves approximately 245,000 students in 588 schools throughout Toronto, Canada.

INTRO DUCTION 8

Given its broad reach within the largest city in Canada, the TDSB is well positioned to affect change in children’s diets through a well-rounded health curriculum and food guidelines that influence healthy food choices consumed within schools. As an influential school board, it can also affect provincial and perhaps federal food policies in schools – preventing the further advancement of a growing nationwide epidemic: the rise of diabetes, obesity and other dietrelated diseases. With kids spending the majority of their waking hours in classrooms for eight months of the year, schools have an opportunity to capture kids’ tummies – and hearts and minds – instilling good dietary habits that will last to adulthood, and maybe even influence how they feed the next generation of children (Hyslop, 2014).

A Generational Change

Future Diets examines the possible scenarios in the year 2035. With a full generation out from today, we can assess how diets might differ from childhood to adulthood, from one generation to the next.

INTRODUCTION

Why should change in diets start in schools? Here are reasons for concern:

Childhood Obesity on the Rise

Between 1978/79 and 2004, the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity among Canadians aged 2-17 has increased from 15%-26% (“Curbing Childhood Obesity”, 2012). Most adolescents do not outgrow this problem and in fact, many continue to gain excess weight (Singh, Mulder, Twisk, 2008). If current trends continue, by 2040, up to 70% of adults aged 40 years will be either overweight or obese (Le Petit, Berthelot, n.d.). Childhood obesity increases the risk of our children suffering from chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension. Type 2 diabetes, rarely found among children a decade ago, is now being diagnosed more frequently. Obesity increases the risk of other illnesses later in life, including heart attacks, stroke and cancer (Hodgson, 2012). Amanda Sheedy, program manager at Food Secure Canada shares, “Most school food programs of the past were aimed at food-insecure children, there is now a shift in what our children need, because it is very much about preventing a lot of the chronic diseases that we now see...that are very much diet-related. It's time for us to really educate our kids about what healthy eating means." (as cited in Hyslop, 2014)

Failing Grade for Nutrition in Schools

A 2007 report card issued by the CSPI (Centre for Science in the Public Interest) rated each of the provincial guidelines against standards set by the Canada Food Guide and the U.S. Institute of Medicine. It found "weak nutrition standards that permit the sale of nutrient-poor food," wide variation between provinces, and virtually no public information about whether schools were complying or not (Kimmett, 2011).

Good Food = Good Grades

A link between good nutrition and learning outcomes is well established. Feeding the Future study released by the Toronto District School Board, shows that giving children a nutritious breakfast each morning has a direct effect on their academic performance. "In our elementary schools [Education Quality and Accountability Office] tests are showing huge improvements in reading, mathematics and particularly science," said Catherine Parsonage, co-chair of the Canadian Child and Youth Nutrition Program Network. According to the study, 78% of students who ate breakfast on most days were on-track for graduation compared to 61% of students who ate breakfast only on a few days or not at all (“Toronto study links breakfast with school success,” 2012). The same outcome is expected of lunch however most research is focused on breakfast, as it is the most skipped meal of the day (Hyslop, 2014).

Call for Food & Nutrition Literacy

Food and nutrition literacy among children is low. "I realized that most of them are graduating without a lot of education even around basic nutrition, because it's not covered in the learning outcomes in most of the high school programs," said Eric Schofield, Vancouver based teacher and food-knowledge evangelist (as cited in Hyslop, 2014). Far fewer people in Canada are cooking with their kids today compared to previous generations and that's having a drastic effect on our knowledge about food, particularly among children (Kimmett, 2011). The 2013 Conference Board of Canada report found that "the low percentage of children and adolescents who regularly participate in family meal preparation is a concern, and may lead to future generations with increasing cooking skill deficits." (as cited in Hyslop, 2014)

“Organizations scan the environment in order to understand external forces of change so that they may develop effective responses that secure or improve their position in the future.” (Choo, 1999)

The environmental scanning of the food ecosystem uses the STEEP +V framework. An acronym for Social, Technological, Economical, Environmental, Political and Values, STEEP+V is an analysis tool that allows an organization to gauge how the external environment can affect it’s future.

TRENDS 12

TRENDS

Implications:

Signals: • Soylent – There have been several meal replacement drinks and smoothies with the ideal amounts of calories, fibre, vitamins and macronutrients that have debuted on the market such as SlimFast, Ensure etc. However Soylent is gaining significant traction, raising 20 million dollars in funding (Kulp, 2015). The company said it had shipped an estimated 6.25 million “meals” across the United States (Ziegler, 2015). • Compressed Meals – The Combat Feeding Directorate (CFD) a branch of the U.S. Army, have developed compressed meals that contain the same amount of calories as a “Meal Ready-To-Eat” (MRE) but are contained in noticeably smaller packaging (one-third of the size). The compressed meal is smaller both in weight (170 to 250 grams) and volume using a combination of freeze-drying, air drying and drying blending (SSC-Natick, 2006).

Meal Replacements Since the body does not require food itself but rather the chemicals and elements it contains, we can bypass food and go straight to nutritional content. Description:

Maturity:

People are seeking ways to cope with a busy lifestyle. According to a study on food preparation and consumption in the US from 1965–1966 to 2007–2008, people are eating out more and spending less time cooking (Smith et al., 2013). This implies that people are spending more and getting less healthy options possibly defaulting to fast food. If consumers can get all the nutritional value, on-demand and at an affordable price meal replacements would be worth considering.

Diets supplements have been around for a long time, but the idea of meal replacements started in the 1960s (Popovich, 2014). It is steadily rising and continues toward an upward trend.

• LifeCaps – Food Formulator Russ Bianchi, claims these chewable super vitamin and mineral enriched pills allows people operate at peak performance during prolonged periods of starvation. This pill would artificially manipulate the human body’s metabolism and find ways to better access the energy-rich fat stores (Bianchi, 2008).

Related Trends: • Functional Foods – Foods enhanced or fortified with a particular nutrient to market that food as having an additional healthrelated benefit.

• Solution to World Hunger – Currently meal replacement products are marketed as a lifestyle choice; for others, though, they might mean survival. The World Food Programme (WFP) uses a broad range of specialized foods to improve the nutritional intake of the people around the world, particularly in disaster relief situations. As future food production and availability is a cause for concern, meal replacement options could be the solution. • Loss of Food Ritual – If we were to exchange our food with a pill or a drink, we would potentially lose our personal and social connections through food. Critics of the trend “efficient eating” lament the loss of food’s communal power. However, the gains from the efficiency are yet to be calculated. • Food for Function - Inventor of Soylent, Rob Reinhart, imagines that, in the future, “we’ll see a separation between our meals for utility and function, and our meals for experience and socialization” (Widdicombe, 2014).

TRENDS

Implications:

Signals: • Direct to Consumer Start-ups – The emergence of successful genomic selfassessment platforms such as 23andme. com, which went from 100,000 customers to over 1,000,000 from 2011 – 2015 (W, A, 2015). • Tech Tools – Arrival of massive computing power and bioinformatics tools to process large data sets signals the progression of nutrition-related research (Desiere, 2001). • Data Bank Growth – From 2003 to 2013, scientists have expanded the GenBank from 49 million DNA bases to approx. 150 terabases. Also, scientists have been able to identify over 2972 genes with known phenotype / disease-causing mutations in contrast to 53 detected in 2003 (Khaldi, 2012). • Increase in Publications – The number of published genome-wide association studies has gone from 0 to 1542 in 10 years illustrating a vested interest in research and data accumulation related to the field of genetics and human health (Miraglia et al., 2004).

Nutrigenomics Nutrigenomics is the study of how food affects our genes. By combining our knowledge of genomics and nutrition, we can determine healthy eating guidelines specific to an individual’s genetic make-up. Description: Because of genetic differences, optimal nutrition for one person may not be optimal or even appropriate for someone else. Since the human genome project, we have made dramatic progress in our understanding of nutrient signals and their effect on our genetic code. Nutrients are dietary signals that are detected by cellular sensory systems that influence gene and protein expression and subsequently, metabolite production. Nutrigenomics aims to determine exactly what a person needs to eat to fight disease and minimize the risks of predisposed conditions by identifying dietary signatures in specific cells (Aldridge, 2007).

Maturity:

The study of nutrition is an ancient science that has evolved as the knowledge of the human body continues to progress. Nutrigenomics is at the early stages of maturation as we have just recently been able to sequence the entire human genome igniting further research in the field (Collins, 2001).

Related Trends: • Fortified Foods Products – There are already many products containing plant sterol esters to lower cholesterol and Omega-3 fatty acids to protect against heart disease. This would just take this trend further in attempts to treat their risk factors with food rather than drugs (Khaldi, 2012). • Ingestible Biobots – Vehicles to personalize nutrient supplementation based on the unique genetic make-up of an individual. By monitoring natural bacteria, the biobot evaluates and creates a personalized protozoa colony specific to the individual.

• Made-to-Fit – Medical professionals will shift away from the “one-size-fits-all” approach to nutrition since advice will be more personalized than we have been able to give in the past. The data generated to provide personalized advice will consist of quantitative information about lifestyle including nutrient intakes, genetic analyses, measurements of physiology and metabolomics or proteomic analyses. • Proactive vs. Reactive – Individuals will be more proactive about their health given the accuracy and personalized nature of information and treatment options. A healthier population will exist due to more effective dietary recommendations and new products with accurate health claims. In addition, nutrigenetic testing could provide a powerful motivator in helping people make healthy lifestyle choices and stick with them (Faseb, 2005). • Enhanced Learning – Our improved understanding of bioactive compounds in foods and their relationship to specific genetic disorders can help underpin nationwide health policy (Muller, 2003). • Targeted Branding – Health claims on food product will be more sub-divided and scientifically substantiated. Products may include branded food products tailored and marked to your sub-genotype containing the right combination of micronutrients. Milk with age-range label to match your fat and calcium requirements (Campbell, 1991). • Long Term – Nutrigenomics helps consumers understand how nutrition can be used to prevent specific diseases.

TRENDS

Implications:

Signals • Touchscreen Beverage Dispensers Allow Flavour Mixing – In 2009, Coca-Cola Freestyle machines enabled customers to mix up to 100 different flavours on the spot. It also sends metrics back to Coke headquarters on popular choices, volume, time, location and can stop any offerings remotely (Sforza, 2012). In response to Coke, Pepsi rolled out Spire in 2014, a digital drink dispenser that can create more than 1,000 drink combinations from it’s biggest machine (Strom, 2014). • Personal and Portable Hydration System – PepsiCo’s Drinkfinity, developed and launched in Brazil in 2014, is a reusable drink bottle which can be flavoured using pods that can contain both dry (e.g. vitamins, botanicals) and liquid essentials (e.g. flavours, sweeteners)(Arthur, 2015).

Carbonated Drinks Get Personal Technology innovations are increasing ways for customers to personalize their carbonated drinks.

Description:

Maturity:

With the soft drink category sales volume sliding down 0.9% from 2013 to 2014 (Balakrishnan, 2015), the beverage industry is looking at technology to create engagement and marketing opportunities to consumers. Beverage marketers are increasingly experimenting with customizable, made-athome drinks as they try to satisfy consumer demand for variety (Wentz, 2014). Even touchscreen dispensers at restaurants enable mixing and matching of flavours. Plus, oneof-a-kind bottles and flavour capsules can transform a plain glass of water into new drinks - the marriage of technology and personalization is changing the way people think about beverages (Arthur, 2015).

This trend is at the very early stage of customization. Newly launched systems and interfaces need consumer feedback over the next few years. Once beverage companies learn from it, the evolution will continue.

• At-home Carbonated/Beverage Systems without CO2 Canisters – A collaboration between Keurig Green Mountain and Coca-Cola, Keurig KOLD, entered the market in Fall of 2014. It enables consumers to make craft and fountain style sodas, zero and low calorie flavoured seltzers and waters, sports hydration drinks, iced teas and –coming soon – cocktail mixers. The system operates without a CO2 canister and uses flash chill technology, cooling beverage to 39° in 60 seconds (Watson, 2015). Existing market leader, SodaStream, started the flavoured sparkling drinks in the home during the 1970s (Arthur 2015).

Related Trends: • Water Flavour Enhancers – Concentrated flavours that come in a capsule (e.g. MiO and Dasani Drops) • Printed Near-field communication (NFC) bottle labels – sticker labels that can contain data retrieved via mobile or the web.

• Carbonated Drinks Continue to Lose Market Share – Trends towards at-home customization and consumption may mean a steady decline in retail/off-theshelf carbonated beverages. In the last ten years, the volume of carbonated drinks sales has steadily decreased. Consumers may be starting to show a preference for more healthful choices. The volume of noncarbonated drinks and water increased by 1.7% in 2014 (Balakrishan, 2015) As well, at-home systems come equipped to mix flat drinks like tea and juices. • True Customization – While moving towards choices, beverage dispensing systems such as Coke’s Freestyle, Spire and Keurig Cold still start with pre-selected options, using their brands as a flavour base, to which some argue is failed customization as it has missed an opportunity to learn more about consumer tastes (Sforza, 2012). Machines can be used as a need finding device and allow customers to co-create new flavours by themselves or socially, so new flavour combinations can emerge. Companies discover consumer preferences, perhaps roll out popular combinations. • Personal Data, a Marketer’s Dream – As these devices start to understand our beverage consumption habits and preferences, beverage companies can use this information to learn more about its consumers and create a strategy on how to turn around the declining carbonated drinks industry. • Direct to Consumer POS Marketing Opportunities – As machines and beverage interfaces become digital, there is a host of marketing options for directly marketing to the consumer. Coke has already used feedback from Freestyle to offer tailor-made drinks, like Thor Thunder Fusion, a limited edition drink concocted to coincide with opening of the movie, “Thor, The Dark World” (Strom, 2014) • Change in Beverage Distribution – POS opportunities are not limited to restaurants and movie theatres – imagine custom beverage dispensers in groceries. With true customization, consumers should be able to self-bottle their concoctions. It can also mean a slow down for the bottling plant and off the shelf drinks. • More Healthy Options – With the increased availability of bioactive ingredients (vitamins, plant sterol, etc.) and the wide range of flavour offerings, consumers can create their drinks with healthy ingredients while controlling sugar and salt content. It also coincides with the current trend of consumers seeking healthier options.

TRENDS

Implications:

Signals: • Emergence of CRISPR-Cas9 – This gene editing technique has brought newfound breakthroughs in genetic manipulation. A molecular technology, it provides something like a “find and replace” feature of DNA giving researchers the ability to make accurate, surgical changes in the genome of living cells (Feng et al. 2013). Biotech company, DuPont, is already growing corn and wheat plants edited with CRISPR in greenhouses. VP of DuPont was quoted saying “We are talking about bringing products to market in 5 to 10 years” (Regalado, 2015). A growing list of plant types genetically engineered with CRISPR-Cas9 in laboratories include soybeans, rice, potatoes (Herman, 2003). • Suppressing nature – In 2014, a Japanese team used gene editing to turn off fruitripening genes in tomato plants

Gene Edited Foods Biotechnology, accelerated by genomics and bioinformatics, has the potential to increase the quality of food, reducing all aspects of the cost including the impact of crop food product on the environment (HolstJensen, 2009).

Description:

Maturity:

Significant progress in gene editing and the ability to produce genetically modified food products has been made possible by scientists improved understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying the relationship between food and health, from basic nutrient actions to the interactions between food micro-organisms and the human intestinal system. By identifying specific bioactive peptides in food products and their link to certain diseases, we are actively looking for ways to make food products more nutritional and thereby lower the risk of diseases caused by specific bioactive compounds. From making food more nutritious with validated health claims to taking bioactive compounds out of foods that are disease or even allergy causing, gene editing provides us with complete control to design foods to sustain optimal health..

Gene editing is a trend in its early stages. The development of the CRISPR technique has potential to accelerate the development of gene-edited food products further progressing this trend to moderate maturation through the commercialisation of genetically engineered products.

• Financial growth – Since the introduction of biotechnology and the use of transgenic plants in the agricultural industry, the seed business has exploded to 40 billion a year. Financial growth in this industry has resulted in many biotechnology companies including Monsanto, SeedCrop, etc. to invest in future foods (Regalado, 2015).

• Impact on Hybrid Plants – New gene-editing techniques including CRISPR can make drought-resistant corn as well as wheat genetically altered to breed like a hybrid rather than self-pollinate as it typically does (Umezawa et al. 2006). This is beneficial as hybrid plants are vigorous, and yields can jump by 10 or 15 percent. • Quicker Methods – Advancements in geneediting provide a fast and precise way to short-cut the gene engineering process to achieve resistance to harsh environmental conditions including low rainfall. The simplicity and efficiency of the CRISPR system could dramatically increase the number of plants reaching the market (Cong, 2013). • Innovations – Gene editing could lead to some surprising creations in agriculture (Holst-Jensen, 2009). For instance, the commercialisation of food products without the proteins responsible for allergies (ex. Allergy-free peanuts). • Life Extension – Application of gene editing techniques like CRISPR to food production has the potential to drive a new generation of foods with additional values extending the life of humans through more nutritious food consumption without harmful bioactive compounds. • Provokes Questions – The ethics behind designer foods is in question as it alters the value system in place for agriculture. Changing the molecular composition of food may lead to the extinction of naturally occurring food products.

Related Trends: • TALENs – Particular enzymes used to edit genomes have been used to correct genetic errors underlying disease. TALENs open possibilities for new agricultural biotechnology approaches aiming at accelerating the generation of genomic variants with novel and beneficial traits (Mahfouz, 2011). • Antisense RNA – Used to regulate the expression of certain genes. For example, a tomato was developed to suppress the enzyme responsible for ripening. The FLAVR SAVR tomato was the first GMO to be commercially sold (Kramer, 1994).

TRENDS

Signals:

Implications:

• Whiskey Experiment – Singleton Sensorium conducted a research project in which whisky was sampled in different sensory rooms to bring out different taste profiles. Participants were unaware that they were receiving the same whiskey in each room. The experiment showed conclusively the link between flavours and environmental stimulators (Velasco et al., 2013).

• Weight Loss – If we can manipulate the brain into thinking we are consuming something sweeter or saltier, and instead get the nutritional value and reduced calorie count of a vegetable.

• Synaesthetic Marketing – Using the study of synaesthetics to alter sensory perceptions (Pendrous, 2014). Numerous imaging and behavioural studies have been conducted showing significant evidence of synaesthesia (the senses coming together or overlapping: where synaesthetes may see certain colours when listening to music for example (Than, 2005).

Taste Bud Hacking Use sensory perception of food (sight, sound, texture, smell) to trick the brain into thinking food tastes differently. Description:

Maturity:

The experience of food (the taste, smell, and overall satisfaction from food) is influenced by all of the senses (Powell, 2015). The brain powers all the senses; as such scientists, psychologists and food makers are looking to engineer the food experience by altering perception cues (Fleming, 2015). Essentially trick the brain into thinking that we are eating chicken when in fact it is broccoli. The study of the relationship between sounds (in particular biting and chewing sounds) and the judgement of foods has been conducted (Christensen and Vickers, 1981). However the ability to supply perception responses to the brain to influence our perception of flavour is fairly new (Powell, 2015).

The study of the relationship between sounds (in particular biting and chewing sounds) and the judgement of foods has been conducted (Christensen and Vickers, 1981). However the ability to supply perception responses to the brain in order to influence our perception of flavour is fairly new (Powell, 2015).

• Effects of Packaging – Food marketing research conducted in Bonn, Germany to show the relationship between sight and perceived taste, studied the influence of food packaging in the taste perception of elementary school children. The results revealed that the packaging cues affect a taste-placebo effect in 88% of children (Enax et al 2015). • Red Plate Experiment – Using the principles of the DeBoeuf scientists have shown that people eat less when the contrast between the food colour and plate colour was high (Caro, 2013).

Related Trends: • Forever Fresh – There are new technologies and treatments such as High Pressure Processing (HPP) that preserve the perceived freshness of food without altering the taste or texture (Blum, 2012).

• Food Manufacturing Regulations – With taste bud hacking technology readily available, companies may want to cut corners in their use of materials opting for lower cost items that can deliver the same flavor, texture and overall taste experience. Food regulators must develop ways to monitor manufactures ensuring that they are transparent about the contents of their products. • The Universal Diet – There have been several attempts by vegetarian and vegan people to replicate the satisfaction from dairy foods in particular. What if you didn’t need to ask about food preferences because every food was vegan and you derived experiential pleasure you would from meat.

TRENDS

Implications:

Signals: • iTube Platform – Developed in UCLA by a team led by Aydogan Ozcan, can test for a variety of allergens, including peanuts, almonds, eggs, gluten and hazelnuts by using the cell phone’s camera and a smart application running on the phone (Chin, 2012). • TellSpec – A keychain-sized device that uses a spectrometer, which interprets the spectrum of photons and the app’s algorithms translate the energy state data into information about the foods’ chemical composition. All the nutritional data and biochemical information is then displayed on your smartphone (Orlov, 2013). • Nima – A portable gluten tester, which tests a physical food sample for presence of gluten using a chemistry-based detection system. It provides positive or negative results within 2 minutes (Nima, 2015).

Food Allergy Scanning Food scanning technology now allows users to detect allergens contained in food.

Description:

Maturity:

Food allergies are an emerging public concern, affecting as many as 6 percent of children and 4 percent of adults and can be life-threatening (Boye, 2004). While consumerprotection laws regulate the labelling of ingredients in pre-packaged foods, crosscontaminations can still occur during processing, manufacturing and transportation (Chin, 2012). There are several products on the market and in development stages that hope now allows users to scan their meals and identify possible allergens before consumption.

Food scanning technologies date back to the late 1990s when bulky equipment was developed to scan and analyze food and medicines to indicate consumption information, collecting the data through barcodes (Kosher, 2003). However the use of portable devices and smart phones to determine the nutritional value of food is new with the development of SCiO in 2014. This trend is still emerging.

• SCiO – Uses the spectrometer technology alongside an algorithm to give users information such as calorie content but it can also tell ripeness and sweetness (Albright, 2014).

Related Trends: • Barcode Scanning Mobile Apps – Smart phone apps like Wazinit and Content Check allow the consumer to scan the product barcode and receive advice on food content.

• User Data – Since the technology is tied to the users smart-phone, developers could leverage user data to build a massive database of GPS-enabled food information. This information could help stop public health epidemics, and hold parties responsible for contaminated food. The TellSpec team hopes it will cultivate a clean food revolution. • Food Information – Since SCiO can also provide chemical information like ripeness and even sweetness, this could potentially alter the way we grocery shop for produce (instead of shaking and tapping watermelons we could shine a light). • Legislation and Policy – With this new technology we can now hold food marketers accountable if there are discrepancies between the labeled content and the scanned content. • Food Purchasing Practices – With scanning technology available, consumers will become more selective in their buying practices: wanting only the freshest produce. This may impact the level of food waste, as consumers will reject good edible produce for fresher alternatives until the rejected food reaches its shell life and must be discarded.

TRENDS

Implications:

Signals: • Intense Market Competition – Most prevalent in the dairy category with probiotic and prebiotics yogurt innovations (Transparency Market Research, 2013). • Tech Innovations – Enhancement of bioactive ingredients are made easier with technological advancements of plant breeding, genetic modification, processing, or special livestock feeding techniques, for example, eggs milk and meat with Omega -3 (Agriculture and AgriFoods Canada, 2011) • Laws and Labels – Changes in food laws affecting label and product claims (International Food Information Council Foundation, 2011). • Health Conscious Consumers – There is a rising interest in attaining wellness through diet (International Food Information Council Foundation, 2011).

Functional Foods With demand from more health-conscious consumers, a focus on disease prevention and a trend toward wellness initiatives the functional food market is robust and growing at a fast pace Description:

Maturity:

Functional Foods are foods enhanced or fortified with a particular nutrient to market that food as having an additional healthrelated benefit. Globally, it has a compound annual growth rate of 6 percent between the period 2011-2015 (Global Functional Food Sales, 2015). Functional foods are fast becoming staples in our supermarkets in a wide range of food categories – cereals fortified with extra fibre and vitamins, margarine with phytosterols, yogurt with probiotics, beverages with antioxidants and more. The conditions optimizing this market growth includes the consumer rising interest in attaining wellness through diet, disease prevention and wellness (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2009).

Though prevalent in groceries and the functional food industry is growing steadily worldwide, this trend has not yet reached its peak – it’s most likely in the early stages of a mature trend. With advancements in technology enabling fortification in many different ways, this trends has ways to go.

• Canadian Market – In Canada, it’s emerging as a global supplier of functional foods and natural health products. More than 750 Canadian companies are specialized in this area, garnering more than $11 billion in revenues (Functional Foods and Natural Health Products, 2015).

Related Trends: • Nutrigenomics – an application of the science of genomics, it is the study of relationship between nutrition and health, for example, how genes interact with nutrients among others. • Health Consciousness – Consumer awareness and desire for healthy foods in the wake of growing diseases like diabetes and cancer. • Transparency – Consumer demand for transparency in food sourcing and ingredients.

• Supply Chain – A complex industry, it leads to the formation of new supply chain partnerships with input suppliers, farmers, researchers, and food processors. Opportunities exist for strategic alliances for a consistent supply of functional ingredients. • Expensive Technology – Bioactive ingredient extraction can be relatively costly; research and development are often significant, and there can be specialized technology needs as well. The groundwork for a product is conducted in-house or outsourced to specialized suppliers dedicated to food ingredient technology research and product development. • Value Gap – Consumers need to grasp the health benefits associated with a given nutrient to appreciate its relevance and premium pricing (Marrapodi, 2011). Manufacturers may need to educate potential customers and provide this level of understanding. • Health Claims – Scientific evidence of benefits from some functional ingredients is stronger than others. There may be a need for policy change regarding health/nutrient content claims on labels and ingredient information. As well, measuring functional effects and health implications may not be known until after several years. • More Variety – As people gain a greater appreciation of their unique disease risk profiles, they may increasingly seek foods that address their specific health concerns. This demand, paired with food companies’ growing ability to finely segment products, is likely to lead to greater varieties of functional foods. For example, in recent years, the enhanced water market has grown faster than the overall bottled water market, partly because manufacturers have created dozens of varieties, each product offering a specific benefit. • Food is Medicine – There is a potential blurring of the lines between food and medicine; already consumers are trading their vitamins and supplements for functional foods.

TRENDS

Signals

Implications:

• Global Growth – In 2007, meal kits started in Sweden with a company called Middagsfrid meaning “dinner peace” (Dunn, 2015). American versions began popping up in 2012 led by NYC-based Blue Apron and Plated. In that same year, a German startup, Hello Fresh came to the United States. In 2013, meal kits went specialized with the likes of Peach Dish offering Southern food and Bostonbased Just Add Cooking emphasizing Northeastern foodstuffs (Kruse, 2015). In Canada, the idea is catching on with Fresh City and Chef’s Plate (Flavelle, 2014).

• Niche business – Targeting urbanites with disposable income, meal kits are priced slightly higher than produce in a grocery store but slightly lower than a restaurant. If pricing stays the same, this trend can settle into a niche business with well-managed survivors. Opportunities exist in this category to expand to families with children.

• Growing Investments – Investors have poured an astounding $177 million into food delivery startups, and two major restaurant delivery players have gone public. SpoonRocket, a San Franciscobased health food delivery startup, reportedly raised $10 million from Foundation Capital and General Catalyst. Munchery, also based in San Francisco, has raised a $28 million Series B round led by Sherpa Ventures, bringing its total funding to $35 million (Meijers, 2014).

Boxed Meal Kits Growing adoption of pre-planned dinners delivered from online food companies.

Description:

Maturity:

Web-based meal kit companies take care of shopping, sorting, washing and planning for dinner. Customers just browse recipes, and the company will deliver ingredients directly to them with step-by-step cooking instructions usually 30 minutes or less. Many companies claim to have chef-created recipes and locally sourced ingredients, perhaps a justification for slightly higher prices than if you were to shop at a grocery store. This business is attracting Millennial urbanites, among others with more expendable income who are looking for convenience and with little to no cooking skills (Segran, 2015).

This emerging trend is in its 8th year in Europe. In North America, it only started three years ago hence, in its infancy. Though new companies are taking the plunge into the market space, competition is far from crowded, and demographic attracted to meal kits still skew on the urbanites without kids.

• Grocery Stores Enter the Market – Supermarket chain Giant/Martin’s launched meal kits at Pennsylvania locations and began offering delivery to customers in Harrisburg, PA, and Jersey City, NJ. Hy-Vee, a Midwest grocery store chain offers Let’s Dish, a meal preparation workshop for parents who want to prepare meals in a fun atmosphere. In Massachusetts, Pantry, an entire grocery store dedicated to globally inspired meal kits made with locally sourced ingredients launched in June 2015 (Tristano, 2016).

• Grocery footprints decrease – If meal kits dominate, everyone can enjoy home cooked meals without ever having to set foot in a grocery store. We may no longer have multiple, massive aisles. • New distribution channel for farms – With the current crop of meal kit companies claiming to work with local suppliers and chefs jointly planning meals based on seasonal availability, local farms may find a more sustainable distribution channel and income stream. • Millennials can graduate into “real” cooks – ”It’s definitely broadened my horizons because the stuff that I would normally go to a restaurant for I can now do at home. It still gives me that ability to cook, and it’s teaching me stuff, too. For me a lot of it is food discovery,” says Mario Quiquero a Plated customer (Johns, 2014). • Restaurants will continue to exist – Though there may be a reduction in restaurant visits, meal kit patrons will still want to seek out the restaurant experience that meal kits don’t provide (getting out of the house, socialization, being served). Millennials spend more on food outside the home than any other generation, averaging $50.75 a week (Segran, 2015).

Related Trends: • Home Meal Replacement – Food category that refers to prepared meals sold through food retailers. • Meal Assembly Centres – Food retail stores where customers choose recipes and prepared ingredients to be cooked at home. (e.g. Dream Dinners, Super Suppers) • Farm to Table – Food movement concerned with producing and delivering food locally. • Shut-in Economy – How engagement and services provided through the internet, believed to be a social technology has anti-social consequences (e.g. Becoming a hermit due to online food delivery).

TRENDS

Implications

Signals • Economic Growth – In 2014, retail sales of seaweed snacks reached $250 million. A massive growth of about 30% (Conick, 2015). • More Product Introductions - In 2014, 27 seaweed snack products were launched in the US and 57 in Europe. In the first seven months of 2015, a further 17 new snacking products featuring seaweed were launched in the US and 40 In Europe (Conick, 2015). • It’s own category in Amazon.com – Dried Seaweed and Nori is alongside staples like flours and doughs. Currently, the No.7 bestseller in Amazon’s “noodle” category is Dulse flakes, a seaweed based product describes as the bacon of seaweed (Wile, 2015). • Seaweed Flavours in Beer – Kelpie, Seaweed Ale Scottish beer and Marshall Wharf Brewing Co’s Sea Belt (Field, 2014)

Seaweed Goes Mainstream Seaweed is no longer just in sushi. It’s dominating the snack aisle, it’s in burgers, and beer!

Description

Maturity:

Seaweed is mostly identified with sushi and Japanese cuisine. Seeing it as a snack in Walmart would probably have been unimaginable a few years ago, but that’s exactly what’s happening right now. Seaweed’s transition from the food fringes to the mainstream will be propelled by snack products (Seaweed is Growing on US Snack Aisles, 2015). The flat sheets of roasted seaweed and cracker variations have soared in popularity in recent years (Spiegel, 2014). More slowly, seaweed is also showing up in burgers as an alternative source of protein and in beer as a new flavour source.

Though many brands are cropping up in the seaweed snack category and distributed in major retailers, the trend is still emerging. Marketers are also voicing that the typical CPG market is different from the seaweed audience, an educated, health-conscious urban consumer (Crawford, 2015). In other food categories such as the beer and the fastfood (burger) industry, the use of seaweed is either experimental or at a very early stage.

• Part of Superbowl Fare – Crunchy products made from vegetables, seeds and beans will be popular snack choices at many big game parties including gimMe®7 crispy roasted seaweed snacks in sea salt, cheddar cheese, honey Dijon and sesame flavors (Snack Trends for the Big Game, 2015) • Popular Keyword – Google Trends showed a spike in the term “seaweed snack” in 2011 (Spiegel, 2014) and had been rising since.

Related Trends • Umami – a category of taste in food (besides sweet, sour, salty, and bitter), corresponding to the flavor of glutamates, especially monosodium glutamate (Soanes and Stevenson, 2006). • Healthy Snacking • Alternative Proteins - Other sources of protein other than meat such as soy, grains and insects. • Organics - foods produced by organic farming

• North American Staple – Snacks like seaweed may have a place in the American Diet. US diet is changing, and more people are looking for plant-based food that is both tasty and healthy (Conick, 2015), Nutritionally rich foods like seaweed are getting more attention. Food companies and marketers are paying attention to consumer demands and pushing healthy food products, fueling and reinforcing trends (Spiegel, 2014). • Alternative Protein – Seaweed may prove to be a major player in this area because it’s abundant and easily harvested. A 2010 Wageningen University study estimated that a seaweed farm covering 180,000 square kilometres - roughly the size of Washington State - could provide enough protein for the world’s population (McEachran, 2014). • Natural Salt Substitute – Scientists at Sheffield Hallam University have previously concluded that seaweed granules could replace salt in cheese, bread, sausages and processed food such as supermarket ready meals (McEachran, 2014). • Versatility – It can cross-integrate with other food categories. In powder, flakes or extract form, it fits comfortably with gluten-free, vegan and vegetarian foods. In it has been used for years as a non-animal resource for umami flavour. – it also fits in the macro trend of US consumers seeking new bold and adventurous foods. • Not a Replacement – “Seaweed will never rival potato chips – nor should it try but it will become a billion dollar business in the US – just as hummus did,” said Julian Mellentin, Director of New Nutrition Business and author of The Next Big Opportunity in Snacking: Five Steps to Creating Success with Seaweed (Conick, 2015).

TRENDS

Implications:

Signals • Growing Consumer Base – Food bars started exclusively in space missions, adopted by athletes and now widely used by students, professionals and the greater population. • Innovations – a combination of bioactive ingredients, nutrients, vitamins, amino acids and electrolytes are packaged in bars like: Futurelife® High Energy SmartBar® and Perfect Bar. • Market Growth – “Between 2007 and 2012, total retail sales increased in the energy and nutrition bar segments. In the five-year period from 2007 to 2012, the segment grew by 52.7% to reach US$2.1 billion in retail sales.” (“Snack,” 2013) Similarly in the US, “Packaged Facts estimated the total U.S. retail sales in the nutrition/energy bar category to be $2.5 billion in 2011, with the category growing 16% from 2010 to 2011, approaching $4.5 billion by 2016.” (Cosgrove, 2012)

Food Bars Granola and energy bars have become a highly popular category in the food industry as consumers value convenience and affordability. Description:

Maturity

Energy bars originated from food sticks made for space travels as healthy substitutes for food. “Described as a “nonfrozen balanced energy snack in rod form containing nutritionally balanced amounts of carbohydrate, fat, and protein. Aficionados will recall that the Space Food Sticks were wrapped in individual foil to give them an added space-age appearance.” (“Space,” 2015) With the perception that energy bars are nutritious, it became popular with athletes and people who are diet-conscious and exercise frequently. Soon, it developed as a convenience food. For those who don’t have time too cook, this became a substitute for breakfast or lunch. Economically, “Euromonitor indicates that sales of snack, cereal and nutrition bars fared well through the recession, a sign that bars are an affordable indulgence.” (“Snack,” 2013)

From space food to today’s ubiquity, the food bar trend is at its peak. They have become a regular part of our daily lives and manufacturers continually seek new innovative ideas to sustain their market share.

• Growing Usage – “Some 75% of respondents who eat cereal/snack bars do so as a snack between meals. The next most popular usage occasion is as a replacement for breakfast, with 62% of consumers engaging in this sort of consumption, this means that the vast majority of consumers are engaging with the category throughout the day, and product manufactures have the opportunity to promote their products as part of a larger wellness routine.” (“Snack,” 2013)

Related Trends: • Energy Drinks – Similar to food bars, this trend started with athletes taking instant energy boosts before game. • Customized Pills – Also offering convenience, it provides energy and nutrients in pill form. It is not as affordable and readily available as food bars and are considered luxury.

• Functional Food - As food bars become more affordable and the addition of bioactive ingredients make it nutritious, consumers may use it as a type of meal replacement. • Customization and Innovations – Food companies may continue to create custom variants such as bars for specific dietary needs. They can also create a new category for use other than snacking. • Continued Growth – “Continued consumer demand for convenient and healthy food options will drive snack, cereal and nutrition bar sales in years to come. The category is forecast to grow by an average of 4% from 2013-17. They are attracted to inherent and added benefits of organic nutrition bar products, as a source of energy and protein, to practical benefits such as time-saving and value for money.” (“Snack,” 2013)

TRENDS

Implications:

Signals: • Growing Worldwide – In 2014, 800 million people worldwide grew vegetables or fruits or raised animals in cities representing between 15 to 20 percent of the world’s food (Tidwell, 2001). • Growing urban farming phenomenon in the US – In 2008, Philadelphia’s squatter gardens produced roughly 2 million pounds of vegetables and herbs worth US $4.9 million. Brooklyn’s Added-Value Farm, occupying 2.75 acres, funnels 40,000 pounds of fruit and vegetables into a low-income neighbourhood, Red Hook. In Camden, New Jersey, community gardeners at 44 sites harvested almost 31,000 pounds of vegetables (World Bank, 2013). • Major Event – 2008-2009 food price crisis placed food security and the need to push for agricultural sustainability on the international agenda.

Urban Agriculture Urban Agriculture is the growing of plants and animals for food and other uses within and around cities and towns. It includes a variety of production systems ranging from subsistence production and processing at the household level to commercialised agriculture. Description:

Maturity:

The UN acknowledges small-scale farming and the necessary shift toward diverse production patterns in agriculture including urban farming as a sustainable approach to food production that addresses the environmental and food security issues we face today. Small-scale farming in urban settings aims to catalyse the shift from monoculture towards greater varieties of crops, reduced use of fertilisers and increased support for small-scale farmers and more locally focused production and consumption of food.

This trend is at the early maturation phase. Urban agriculture and small-scale farming on the household scale was common practice before the industrial revolution. To shift this trend into moderate maturation, a cultural shift in value systems must occur within the developing nation to allow for smallscale farming to thrive without monoculture monopolies.

• Personal Farming – Urban agriculture would promote small-scale organic farming on a household scale leading to transformative changes in the agriculture and trade systems. Reduced reliance on conventional, monoculture-based and high-external-input dependent industrial production will improve the productivity of small-scale farmers (Bert, 2007). • Arable State – Less pressure on industrial scale agricultural practices will help to increased soil carbon content and better integration between crop and livestock production to return land back to its arable state (Tidwell, 2001). • Reduced Emissions – Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of livestock production through sustainable peatland, forest and grassland management (Bert, 2007). • Diet Patterns – Changing dietary patterns toward climate-friendly food consumption (Jones, 2012)

• High Food Prices – from 2011 to 2013 were almost 80 percent higher than for the period 2003 – 2008 (Jones, 2012). • Fertilizer Increase – Global fertilizer use has increased by eight times over the past 40 years, although global cereal production has only doubled during that period (Bert, 2007). • Growth rates – Agricultural productivity have recently declined from 2/cent per year to below 1 cent (Bert, 2007). • Environmental Impact – Two types of irreparable environmental damage caused by monoculture, GMO production and intensive agriculture include nitrogen contamination of soil and water and loss of biodiversity (Bert, 2007). • Global Warming – Greenhouse Gas Emissions from agriculture are the single biggest and fastest growing source of global warming in the South

Related Trends:

• Less Cost – Food that’s grown and consumed in cities may cost less than supermarket fare that’s come long distances (World Bank, 2013) • Safe Solution – When transportation and distribution channels fail during the logistics of agriculture exports from foreign markets, urban farming acts as a safety solution for dependent populations (World Bank, 2013). • ·Emergency Supply – During natural disasters such as hurricanes and blizzards, urban farming produce will supply the population during times of emergency. In New York City, the urban farming company, “Gotham Green” was the only product on the shelves during Hurricane Sandy. • More Yields on a Sustainable Level – Due to the lack of insect pressure and predatory stressors, urban farms are relatively more productive than in rural settings. Also, the maintenance of a smaller plot in urban farms allows farmers to address problems as they arise and harvest produce at their peak. Lastly, urban farms can plant more densely because they hand cultivate and nourish their soil more frequently (World Bank, 2013).

• Urban farming – Grown in recent years on both a commercial and household-scale. Growing produce and herbs at home is a trend that already exists and continues to become more popular as organics become more mainstream like the price is a barrier. • Household Farming Kits – Google searches represent over 16 million search options for “household farming kit” indicating a growing trend for cultivating produce at home.

TRENDS

Signals

Implications:

• Acceptability – Recent efforts have been made trying to make insects a more acceptable part of our diet e.g. ‘Insect Deliciousness’ Project, a three-year effort to turn insects – the creepy crawlies that most of us squash without a second thought – into tasty treats.” (Anthes, 2014)

• Expensive Sources of Protein will Decline – As insects become a more popular and accessible choice of protein, expensive sources like meats will become low in demand. Global beef prices are already at an all time high and health scares related to red meat have leveled off demand in the U.S. (Boyle, 2014). Introduction of any economical and “safer” protein can be a threat to the beef industry.

• Influencers Take the Lead – “…in the Netherlands, the Minister of Agriculture puts insects on the menu in her restaurant in the ministry. And when she got all the Ministers of Agriculture in the E.U. over to the Hague recently, she went to a highclass restaurant, and they ate insects all together.” (Dicke, 2010) • Concealing the Image to Focus on Taste – Six Foods combined chips with crickets and created ‘Chirps’, a triangular chip made of black beans, rice and cricket flour (Anthes, 2014).

Entomophagy Eating insects, while a norm in some countries, is gaining momentum elsewhere as a niche protein alternative to conventional protein sources like meat. Description:

Maturity

Most of the world already eats insects as part of their regular diet, “caterpillar and locusts are popular in Africa, wasps are a delicacy in Japan, and crickets in Thailand” (Anthes, 2014). But it is only in the past few years that it has gained momentum in Western countries, particularly with respect to crickets (Borel, 2015).

The maturity of this trend differs according to location. It “is common in many cultures including 36 countries in Africa, 23 in the Americas, 29 in Asia, and even 11 in Europe” (Thomason, 2015). Out of the 7 billion-world populations “the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that about two billion of the world’s population eats insects in their daily diet.”(Thomason, 2015) In North America, the trend as protein alternative is just starting to emerge.

With the world population expected to reach 9 million in 2050, feeding a multitude is going to be a problem. One solution from the food industry is protein alternatives. Borel (2015) says, insects – a source of protein that requires a fraction of the land, water, and feed as livestock – could help alleviate the looming crisis. However, despite its health benefits and sustainable farming practices, cultural acceptance is required for wide adoption as most people still associate insects with dirt, waste, and pathogens (Anthes, 2014).

• Changing names – “Take wax worms, which live in beehives and eat honeycomb. By all accounts, they’re delicious: buttery, with a taste reminiscent of bacon. But the word ‘worm’ can be a deal-breaker for diners, so Six Foods has re-christened them ‘honey bugs’.” (Anthes, 2014) • Insect Content Made Legal – “In the United States, for example, a fair amount of insect content is legally allowed in food. Chocolate can have 60 insect components per 100 grams; peanut butter can have 30 insect parts for every 100 grams.” (Galant, 2010)

• Better for the Environment – Should entomophagy become mainstream, it will have a significant impact on the environment as it uses significantly less water, land and resources for cultivation. • New regulations needed on food quality and farming practices – Insect farms will be monitored for any types of hazards associated with its practices. Food quality will need to be tested and checked periodically before deemed safe, hygienic and healthy to eat. • Diverse application can increase consumption and therefore acceptance – Insect protein can be added to foods in versatile forms. As flour, the application can extend from main course to pastries. For people who can’t get past the visual of eating insects, this opens new ways of adding insects to their diet.

Related Trends: • Soy: With an ability to accept flavour, soy has become an accepted source of alternative protein especially to vegetarians. It has, however, taken centuries for soy that was originally a part of Chinese cuisine to become an acceptable replacement for meat. • Sweet Blue Lupine Seeds – “lupine-based protein, which tastes like traditional dairy products but is free of dairy, gluten and cholesterol, has the potential to become a valuable, sustainable protein source in both developed and developing countries,” says research scientist Stephanie Mittermaier (as cited in McLean, 2015) • Quinoa - Quinoa is the only plant based source of complete protein. “Complete” means that it contains all 9 of the essential amino acids that are crucial to human function and health (Norek, 2010)

TRENDS

Implications

Signals • Psychological impact – According to a research by US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health, “For the young adult, choosing a lifestyle based upon an organic diet constitutes a return to the natural world on a philosophical level, whereas on a psychological level it connects one to aspects such as identity, values, and well-being.” (Eskine, 2012) • Food Memories – “The second constituent was marked by the participants’ experience of forming a narrative self through emotional-relational food memories. In other words, a healthy lifestyle, based on eating organic food, was experienced as having an interdependent connection to positive childhood memories...”(Essen & Englander, 2013) • Organic Foods Tied to Morals – Research suggests that, “Together, these findings reveal that organic foods and morality do share the same conceptual space.” (Eskine, 2012)

It’s Organic Whether its about healthy eating, good parenting or protecting the environment, choosing organic foods is associated to consumers’ values. To others, it’s also a status symbol.

• Consumers Willing to Pay More – “Between 1997 and 2011, U.S. sales of organic foods increased from $3.6 billion to $24.4 billion, and many consumers are willing to pay a premium for these products.” (Brandt, 2012)

Description

Maturity

Related Trends

The health benefits linked to organic foods is a critical factor in decision-making for North Americans (Essen & Englander, 2013). Organics supporters have a tendency to moralize their preferences. “To many of my friends, buying organic is more than a supermarket choice. It’s a badge of good parenting. They proclaim, “I buy only organic” with the same flush of pride they assume when announcing their child has made the honor roll” (Watson, 2015). Michaelidou and Hassan (2008 ) noted that ethical motives might be part of a person’s self-identity that has directly influenced a particular behavior, which in turn positively affects the individual’s attitude toward organic food.” (As cited in A., C., 2012) Being more costly than conventional food, organic food is considered a status symbol.

Organic food consumption continues to rise but is still far away from its peak. There is widespread awareness of its claimed health benefits, however, due to high costs and limited availability, the majority of the population have not been able to adopt the trend.

• Sustainable Packaging – Plant-based plastics, biodegradable packaging and products like LiquiGlide have answered the demand for sustainably-conscious products, “it’s no wonder that firms have taken charge at creating sustainable, environmentally-friendly, “green” products to satiate the ever-growing consumer desire to be able to conveniently decrease their environmental impact” (Szaky, 2014). • Green Technology in Food Production – From wastewater treatment plants, low carbon refrigeration systems to launching innovation centres for biomaterials the food industry is making strides to reduce their carbon emissions, waste, water and energy consumption.

• Image of Health – Consumers may continue to support organics so long as they are projected to be a healthier alternative. • Label Awareness – The prevalence of “healthier” foods like organics are making consumers more “label-aware”, discriminating and can influence healthy purchases of food in general. • Value to Consumer – Higher prices are creating a justification for consumers to believe they are indeed paying extra to be healthy, therefore, organic foods will take longer to gain mass adoption. • Organic Brands May Continue to Charge More – There are some doubts around the authenticity of organic labels “and 51 percent agree that labeling something as organic is an excuse to charge more.” (“Facts about,” 2015)

“Scenarios are narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out. They are not predictions. Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues.” (Ogilvy and Schwartz,1998)

Critical Uncertainties Central to the key issue of future diets given today’s looming nationwide epidemic of diet-related diseases, two critical uncertainties were identified: 1. The use of technology - how does the development or non-development of technology contribute to food production, delivery and dietary choices? With trends such as the extraction and addition of bioactive ingredients becoming more popular, could there be a tendency to use food as medicinal substitute? With the rise of digitalization and advances in science, what role does Nutrigenomics play in deciding our dietary needs? Will we allow technology to control our food choices and ultimately our health? Our scenarios explore the use low and high technology and the impact it has in the possible worlds.

SCE NARIOS 40

2. The application of the variety of foods-From ample choice to personalization, how does spectrum of food variety affect one’s dietary choice? Trends towards food personalization are more evident that ever – from personal do-it-yourself diet plans to technology-led product innovations that empower the consumer with a multitude of choices. If we had ample choice, would that make us pick healthy options or the opposite? If we were prescribed a specific diet based on our health disposition, would we gladly accept that intervention or be frustrated at the restriction? As a society, we cherish our freedom to choose food though sometimes, detrimental to our health. To what degree should we allow our choices control the future of our health? Furthermore, the following factors were also considered as they influence food consumption and thus, consumer health: Dietary choice - prevention or management of diseases through diet intersects between physiological needs and conscious individual decisions. Furthermore, dietary choices are a result of physiological factors, lifestyle, values, acceptance of technology as well as understanding nutritional information (e.g. food labels). As well convenience and variety of products also influence consumer choice. Food supply, access and affordability - The country’s economic factors and the consumer’s socio-economic status strongly influence food access and affordability (which in turn also affect dietary choices). Canada’s shifting demographic in 2035 will include a growing population with the largest segment of seniors, 65 and over can greatly impact the demand on healthier dietary choices, at the same time putting a stress on the healthcare system.

Eat this, Cure that

43 HEALTH CARE SYSTEM

L O W T E C H

Confident technology is enabling Distrusting of technology. Mindful of product labels. Very health their child’s exact dietary needs. Aggressive at ensuring the best conscious, prefers natural foods. possible food program is provided to their children as they have learned from their own mistakes. Targeted diet plans enhance cognitive abilities of students resulting in higher test scores school boards have ever seen.

Focus on prevention measures, where nutrition information and a high standard of health and personalization is intrinsic to government-funded school meal plans.

A growing divide between parents who opt for low-nutrient, convenience foods and those that moralize their food choices for their children, choosing healthier foods. Mixed results.

At it’s tipping point. Some of the population are in good health, some afflicted with diet-related diseases. Health Canada waits to see if more investment is needed to encourage healthy diets.

Patronize local sources and most likely grow their own food. Being healthy is not a choice, it is the only way.

Focus on sustainable food production for local consumption. Online communities abound where food sources are shared.

Conventional medicine is combined with Naturopathy to attain maximum health benefits. Prescribed food is common to target the root cause and not only evident symptoms.

Focus on prevention where the role of healthy diets is central to tackling diet-associated diseases. Health campaigns are evident.

Society believes that students on a Higher rate of high performing more organic diet with minimal students as a result in change of their processed foods perform better diets. hence a shift to include more organic foods into diets. Results remain inconclusive.

Drug companies and food retailers merge to develop and distribute genetically modified products for public consumption. Online food services and delivery are in a highly competitive market.

Edible, eco-friendly and convenience packaging dominates.

Technology-enhanced food is hits bottom low and markets re-asses product category.

Online and physical supermarkets and speciality shops coexist. Most large food retailers receive produce from local producers.

Food is preferred in its most natural state and technology that aids the preservation is accepted. Genomics services such as Nutrigenomics is highly accepted as part of dietary decision making. Valued for intervention aspect. Food retail outlets merge with production. Intelligent delivery via food machines offer food customization. Shrinking aisles of pre-packaged goods.

Designer foods in micro formats such as pills are typical functional foods.

High

Low

Everyone’s a Farmer Low

PERSONALIZED FOOD

STUDENT PERFORMANCE

AMPLE CHOICE

Eat This, Cure That!

T E C H

PARENTAL VALUES

Everyone's A Farmer H I G H

Diet Couture

ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGY

Super Fit, Super Fat

COST OF FOOD

Diet Couture

Scenarios at a glance

Super Fit, Super Fat

SCENARIOS

Super Fit, Super Fat

AMPLE CHOICE, HIGH TECHNOLOGY

SCENARIOS Brands will struggle to be noticed as food can be co-packaged. Instead of individually branded products, food machines will offer various brands which they can mix and match (e.g. Danone’s fruit flavourings added to Oikos Greek yogurt stirred base). New regulations for food labels containing nutritional values and ingredients come into play as each food component needs to be identified to the consumer. Schools will adopt the onsite production model, allowing children to customize their snacks and lunch due to its cost-saving properties. The battle of installing healthy food machines vs. unhealthy ones exists as there is no enforcement of provincial nutrition guidelines. Schools will choose the food program that fits within their budget, and these may not be the healthy choices. Meanwhile, nutrition-related information campaigns are present at schools to educate students about healthy eating habits.

VALUES Parental styles differ depending on household preferences and values. Some parents may value choice and indulge in their children’s food preferences whereas other parents may enforce strict health plans for their children. These differing parental values are also heavily influenced by household income: those with resources choose “super fit” diets and the rest opt for “super fat”.

HEALTH AND DIETARY CHOICES The Healthcare system is focused on the treatment of diet-associated ailments, and there is an increasing number of children presenting with diabetes and obesity. The government is bogged down with increased spending on diet-related issues and needs avenues to incentivize healthy eating habits such as providing subsidies to healthy foods and spending on school programs that reduce childhood obesity. With such wide variety in food choice, it has been a struggle to move students to lean to the “healthy right”.

IMPLICATIONS • Schools must enforce nutritional guidelines to ensure student receive the healthy food amid all the many convenient choices. • Schools must monitor programs and initiatives that address obesity concerns. Success metrics are important in understanding the types of programs to roll out to a wider student population. In 2035, the use of technology has continued to enhance food production, and there is more variety now than there has ever been. There is a growing divide in this world due to high consumer choice and individualism. One can attain a healthy and sustainable lifestyle – it has been easier to achieve due to the rise of functional, convenient foods, albeit more costly. However, the availability of affordable unhealthy options is also high – which are equally convenient. Consumers’ values and lifestyles are put to the test as both options are ubiquitous.

• Curriculum changes to include interactions with parents to ensure healthy habits start at home and are brought to school. • Schools may explore how online technologies can contribute to the success of their meal plans – from a monitoring and distribution perspective.

FOOD SUPPLY, ACCESS & AFFORDABILITY There is an increased reliance of online technologies to the extent that almost everything will be available online. Online meal kit delivery companies are everyone’s go-to for quick lunch and dinners. Consumers enjoy culturally diverse culinary choices with options for vegans, and those that require alternatives (e.g. gluten and dairy-free diets) – accommodation for all types of dietary needs are available online. Bricks and mortar restaurants struggle to survive so they form partnerships with online food delivery companies. The next generation of GrubHub and UberEats will dominate this space. While groceries and food retailers still exist, their footprint has diminished significantly due to the prevalence of online sales. Established food retailers will move towards an on-site production model where consumers can choose their ingredients and make their food. For example, food machines with a digital interface allow the consumer to choose their yogurt base, fruit flavouring, bioactive ingredients, type of sweetener, and others. Pre-packaged products will comprise of a small inventory on the shelves.

Diet Couture

PERSONALIZED FOOD, HIGH TECHNOLOGY

SCENARIOS

VALUES Parents in this society are living examples of the effects of nutrient-poor foods provided by the school food program 20 years ago. In this society, 70% of adults aged 40 years old are overweight or obese. Parents now value healthy options and encourage strict diets at an early age to instill good eating habits. Parents embrace technological intervention to maintain a high standard of healthy meals at school. They are aggressive at ensuring the best possible food program is provided to their children, as it is a personal affliction that they have experience. There is an overall preference for highly personalized foods (advanced forms of GMO) over generic produce. Private companies dominate the food production landscape where drug companies like Pfizer have merged with food distribution channels like Loblaws to reach parents and children at home. These private companies are integrated into health care strategy and policy making as a vehicle to produce and distribute biologically precise and highly optimized food products. Personalization has high value. Registered dieticians, doctors, and policy-makers work hand in hand to determine which raw resources are imported or produced in Canada to sustain the nutrition needs of our population. Raw materials, such as pulses are the basis of our protein source. In the past five years, Canada has experienced over 500% growth in pulse production. Pulses are high in protein and fiber and play a critical role in soil conservation. In attempts to reverse the harmful effects of the past agriculture, Canada will farm soil-enriching produce for use as raw material for extraction. These will be utilized in personalization production machines, such as those found in schools. Precision in Canada-wide school food programs has directly affected the success of children at school. The link between healthy nutrition and learning outcomes is well established (Alaimo, 2001). To save on diet-related health care costs, our government’s aggressive and technologically advanced food program aims to improve overall population health by proactively investing in the future generations of Canada. In addition to the personalized food programs, information campaigns will be launched to educate students on the central role of technology in food production. This campaign aims to cast genetically modified products as a necessary component of proactive health. The stigma surrounding GMO products is removed as health benefits are realized and appreciated.

HEALTH AND DIETARY CHOICES Diet-related health problems burden the medical system as costs continue to mount. Food consultants work aggressively with Canada’s Health Minister and technology companies to develop and implement highly advanced machinery using CRISPR gene editing. School cafeterias will use this technology in an attempt to establish biologically precise nutrient intake. Every student in Canadian schools between the ages of 2 to 17 would experience this enhanced food program system.

FOOD SUPPLY, ACCESS & AFFORDABILITY High technology and prescriptive diet creates a strong dependency on technological innovation to address diet-related health issues at a young age. As a nationwide initiative, the government has allocated over 550 million dollars for establishing on-site food production. It includes food machines equipped to produce breakfast and lunch meals based on a student’s unique biological profile, which would account for nutrient deficiencies, genetic disorders, and portion regulation. The general cost of goods and services is low, as only raw materials are needed to produce nutritiously precise and optimized products. Technology is highly accepted as a mode of food delivery in schools to help regulate portions and nutrient output abiding by strict nationwide food guidelines. Schools have their food production system equipped to produce “made-to-fit” meals specially designed to address the needs of each student taking into account their genetic make-up, dietary requirements and cultural preferences. Food is ingested in capsule form to reduce waste and enhance the bodies’ ability to absorb all vital nutrients.

Dietary needs are unique and if not properly met, will lead to unwanted health problems. Through the use of technology, we can tailor food products to fit the nutritional needs of an individual based on their genetic make-up. Health policies focus on prevention measures, where nutrition information and a high standard of health and personalization is intrinsic to governmentfunded school meal plans. Strict regulations on food guidelines and safety are implemented to assure that claims are accurate and precise.

IMPLICATIONS: • Funding will be required to support cost of high-tech school food programs (GMO machines onsite). • Cafeteria staff will be replaced by registered dietitians and trained practitioners to operate food production machinery • A review of guideline and policies in keeping with a focus on prevention of disease through technological intervention. • Canada implements a 10% tax on soda pop. If you consider that Canadians consume 358 billion liters of soda annually, the 385 million will cover new school food programs as well as cut down Canadians consumption of sugary drinks. • Higher literacy rate and nationwide test scores as a consequence of optimized nutrition at schools. Students demonstrate higher cognitive ability at school.

Eat This, Cure That

PERSONALIZED FOOD, LOW TECHNOLOGY

SCENARIOS would have to increase their variety due to highly individualized needs which would require increased man hours, cooking several batches. In both cases, the cost of the school increases. For children with highly prescriptive needs, partnerships would be developed with parents to ensure kids get exactly what they need. For parents who fear their children would not get their dietary needs in school, there would be an increase in the number of home-schooled children.

VALUES Parents have seen the effects of poor eating habits, either having health conditions themselves or knowing of someone in their immediate family with health issues. As such they are very health conscious, ensuring that kids get foods specific to the prevention of their medical condition. They are also mindful of product labels ensuring that products purchased support their children’s need. They are active in the school’s operation where food is concerned wanting to be part of decision processes. There is a need to be knowledgeable as such there are several support groups and forums both online and in person, for parents with children either living with a condition or having a high propensity to develop conditions.

HEALTH AND DIETARY CHOICES The healthcare system is focused on prevention of diet-associated ailments as well as treatment using prescribed food to target the cause and not only evident symptoms. The government would provide subsidies for food production and prescription. Health insurance plans support the cost of food prescribed for health conditions. Farmers receive subsidies to produce certain crops. The value of the subsidies is influenced by the cost of treatment of the health condition it supports. The policies on food labeling become more stringent as they are now tied directly to health claims.

IMPLICATIONS • As the number of children with diet-associated issues has increased the school board may need to create alternative schools to tackle specific problems. • Physical health and athletics are must be more frequent in the programs, which would require additional funding to incorporate the staffing and equipment. In 2035, people have begun to distrust technology and its utility blaming it for the reduction of physical activity and a sedentary tech-reliant way of life. Mass production of food through automated technology has allowed food manufacturers to cut corners, compromising the nutritional value of food. They believe that the technology-enhanced foods have contributed in the prevalence of cancer, liver/kidney damage and birth defects. People revert to producing food the old-fashioned way with technology only enhancing the preservation of food in its most natural state. However due to the increased prevalence of diet-associated diseases such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, and obesity, there is a need for a level of prescription in the diets. Parents and schools have let these conditions go unchecked for too long, so more children are presenting with early-onset variations of these conditions. Although the pharmaceutical industry has built capacity to tackle these conditions, this scenario is a shift back to a form of naturopathy, using food as medicine.

FOOD SUPPLY. ACCESS AND AFFORDABILITY

• The medical community would need to introduce diet plans and nutrition as part of the prescribed healthcare. • Need for partnerships between parents and schools to ensure that children get their required diet for their specific conditions. • Additional funding is needed by the schools to get different caterers for the students with the different conditions or body types. • Redesign of food nutrition labeling intended to help prevent obesity • Group all sugars, both added and natural together in ingredients list • Put least desirable nutritional information at the top of the label to draw more attention • Streamline serving suggestions to make it easier to compare nutritional data of similar products (Hyslop, 2014).

In this scenario of low technology and personalized food, there is a high demand for human effort to produce food that caters to very specific conditions. As a result, the cost is very high, because farmers are unable to mass produce and must diversify their produce offering to recoup costs. School caterers must patronize several wholesalers producing specific crops to cater to several types of conditions that may be present in the school children. Caterers either focus on production of food for one condition in which case schools must hire several caterers. Or caterers

Everyone’s a Farmer

AMPLE CHOICE, LOW TECHNOLOGY

SCENARIOS As cattle and hog production is expensive, red meat production has been reduced, while legumes and aquaculture have become more prominent sources of plant and animal protein. Beef is a luxury.

VALUES Parents in this society started eating nutrient-poor foods while growing up and are now feeling the ill-effects on their health. This has led to a strong desire for healthy eating, especially when it comes to their children. There is a strong preference for natural foods over processed, and we see this in kids’ lunch boxes. It’s common for families to have a home food garden whether it’s small indoor crates, in the backyard, or low-tech vertical farms using hydroponic or aeroponic systems. Sharing is important. As each community largely depends on local sources, food diversity is an issue. Social interactions increase because of the interdependency on food variety. Farm to table ethos is high. Farmers, chefs or cooks and registered dietitians closely work together in restaurants, online meal deliveries, and school cafeterias. They are a common triumvirate in many food establishments. In parallel, information campaigns on the role of diets for health, as well as cooking and nutrition classes in schools, have led to a nutritionally literate population which finds it easy to make the healthy choice, with health considerations being the primary determinant when purchasing food.

HEALTH AND DIETARY CHOICES Health policies focus on prevention measures, where the role of healthy diets is central to tackling diet-associated diseases. Strong regulations on food quality and safety, and fiscal measures to discourage unhealthy diets. Also, subsidies on healthy diet components support the drive towards healthier eating (e.g. free personal farming starter kits).

IMPLICATIONS: • Funding will be required to support the cost of school food programs (food gardens, farm to table cafeteria style, etc.). • A review of school food guidelines and policies to align with a focus on disease prevention and considerations on the availability of food diversity. Society is in a panic – the rise of chronic diseases in the last 20 years has created the first generation of Canadians to have a shorter average lifespan than their parents (Hogson, 2012). Parents realize how long they have put off healthy eating and nutritional literacy as an important responsibility. The new generation parents have pushed the society to go back, for some of us way back, to the way our ancestors ate: fresh food, made from scratch, eaten together (Hyslop, 2014).

• A study of health and nutrition curriculum. Considerations to what a healthy relationship with food may include growing, cooking and eating healthy foods within the school environment. • As food comes from diverse sources, many of which may not be regulated, food safety practices may need to be reviewed, and laws required before it can sell on the open market.

FOOD SUPPLY, ACCESS, & AFFORDABILITY In this scenario of low technology and ample food variety, there is a high dependency on human labour. Therefore, the general cost of goods and services is high. Communities turn to local sources for food – local farms, urban farms for those in city centres, and produce from citizens who choose to self-farm. Schools have their food gardens and as resource permits, even a few laying hens, which eat veggie scraps from its cafeteria program. Every small urban space will be utilized as a farming area like rooftops and parks to sustain the population’s demand. Local cooperatives have replaced supermarkets as the main source of locally produced whole foods. In response, supermarket chains have expanded their produce sections, shrinking the middle aisles of processed food. Some informal, non-regulated peer-to-peer food businesses have emerged, based on personal farming practices.

“Experiential futures, design fiction, artifacts from the future or speculative fiction. Regardless of its name, there has been a surge in this kind of futures work in the last 24 months. Advocates such as Stuart Candy, Bruce Sterling, Anab Jain, Justin Pickard, Nicolas Nova and Julian Bleeker argue that design-based futures are not just a shiny form of communication, but are a distinct way of practicing futures research itself. Highly visual, often emotional, and ethnographically infused, their approach brings the future alive through videos, objects, and print media. The result, they argue, is a profoundly engaging experience that goes beyond technical reports and PowerPoint presentations towards a new level of engagement.“ (Noah Raford, 2012)

The Smart Meal Plan Parent Information Night

TIME MACHINE 52

On September 6th 2030, parents from Westbrook Elementary School attended a parent information night regrading The Smart Meal Plan – an integrated approach which includes nutritional profiling, meal planning and surveillance. During the evening, a 5th grade class facilitator, along with two of the school’s registered dietitians introduced how the new program works. Parents were invited to experience the DNA profiling process and then offered to sample the new food products under The Smart Meal Plan Program including EntoPops, VeggieTabs, SpringMe water and much more. Parents were engaged in a question and answer session after the presentation. To conclude the evening, parents were invited to sign-up for the program at the school website or office.

How does it Work? Creation of Nutrition Profile:

What is it? The Smart Meal plan is aligned with the updated Canada-wide nutritional guidelines and curriculum goals for Health, Nutrition and Physical Education. This initiative ensures our continued commitment to every student’s overall well-being and ongoing prevention of diet-related health concerns.

The Smart Meal Plan integrates nutritional genomics, personalized diet, and a learning feedback device, RIBIT®. Each student’s unique nutritional profile includes a risk analysis of food interactions, allergies, intolerance and sensitivities along with recommendations on optimal foods. These inform their dietary needs which are all customized right in our cafeteria. Through RIBIT®, the student’s nutritional intake and physical activity can be monitored remotely.

In partnership with NextGen+, a nutrigenomics company, a child’s genetic make-up is analyzed for risk of food interactions, allergies, intolerance and sensitivities along with recommendations on optimal foods. It will also identify genetic predispositions to certain diseases to prevent in the future. All data collected will give insight about a child’s unique dietary profile including optimal diet type, personal vitamin & micronutrient needs, anti-oxidant requirements, and carbohydrate, saturated fat, salt and sugar levels. This profile is created annually at the start of each school year and will be available online with approved access.

Personalized Meal Plan:

Based on a child’s nutritional report, a personalized meal plan is created. A wide variety of foods ranging from certified CRISPR enriched-naturals to bioactive infused synthetics will be available to fulfill their unique dietary needs and taste preferences. Each school cafeteria is equipped to create these customized meals and they may also bring in vendors who specialize pre-packaged custom foods.

Learn with Feedback:

On school days, a child’s nutritional intake and physical activities are tracked in a learning feedback device, RIBIT®. It helps monitor their compliance while at school and it also alerts parents when nutritional levels need to be adjusted, among many other things. All data can be accessed online.

Parents Q&A

STIGMA Since the Smart Meal Plan produces designer foods that are one-to-one, this ultimately means that children seated beside each other may have totally different foods some of which may be commonly prescribed for certain medical conditions. Many wonder whether the presence of such foods will cause stigma and discrimination among students.

LOSS OF CULTURAL PRACTICES There were issues raised by a parent about loss of cultural traditions and heritage. Being able to let their children eat the type of food that represent their ethnic culture is a huge part of preserving their identity. Replacing their traditional food with designer foods threatens the preservation of their culture.

Back in 2016, we asked, “If you were a parent, would you sign up your child for the Smart Meal Plan?” Here are the responses:

PRIVACY

Some parents voiced their concern about privacy. When a child grows up, she/he may not be able to have employment of choice because of health records. Also, there was a concern about privacy leakage or selling to third parties like insurance companies. Insurance companies may also raise rates because of the known risk factors presented in the DNA profile.

TOO MUCH INFORMATION In relation to privacy concerns, parents also stressed that they may not be ready to receive “bad news” related to their child’s DNA profile. Many wonder how such information could be managed and how much one needs to know. Parents were not sure if by knowing too much information, this will influence their decision on the types of activities they will allow their child to participate in understanding fully about their risk profiles.

LOSS OF COMMUNAL ACTIVITY Loss of “eating together” was a concerned raised by another parent. Sharing food and stories about the day brings families together. A communal meal as a means of fostering community in a school was important to some parents. The robotic vending of meals represented a threat to fostering community at school.

OPTIMISTS AND EARLY ADOPTERS Although there were several concerns, many parents were optimistic about the program’s many benefits. Some parents advocated for DNA testing to build a meal plan that addressed the specific dietary requirements of their children. Also, the convenience of a healthy meal plan was appealing to many parents who needed the convenience of meals provided in school. The busy schedule of many parents makes it difficult to make a healthy meal for their children. This program provided that in a highly convenient manner. However, an opposing parent felt the program was removing parent’s control over their child’s diet by letting the profiling dictate what a child should eat.

The Verdict

Throughout our discussion, many benefits and concerns were raised. Surprisingly, when all parents were asked whether they would opt-in for The Smart Meal Program, it was a split vote. 50% of the parents said they would opt-in immediately while 25% still had questions about the program before making a definitive answer and 25% said absolutely not.

The following strategies were developed in consideration of the goals, initiatives and existing programs of the Toronto District School Board. They are meant to create a preferable future with regards to diets of students and relevant stakeholders. The strategies have been designed to mitigate adverse effects that each scenario may bring.

Assessment of Strategic Option: Financial Cost: What capital investment and on-going operational costs are associated with the development and maintenance of this strategy? Are the associated costs high or low? More dots = More cost Less dots = Less cost Risk: What is the risk profile associated with this strategy? Is the strategy going to be easily integrated into the current environment or will it be a disruptive strategy with inherent risks and caveats that will inhibit its successful implementation and adoption? More dots = More risk Less dots = Less risk

STRA TEGIES 60

Environmental Impact: To what extent does this strategy have an adverse effect on the environment. Will the solution address environmental concerns by reducing the impact or add to the problem? Will the schoolâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s carbon footprint increase or decrease as a result of the strategy? More dots = High impact Less dots = Low impact Influence: What level of authority does the school have to facilitate the execution of this strategy? Does this approach require several stakeholders and other key decision makers to actualize the strategy? More dots = High influence Less Dots = Low influence Strategic Fit: Does the strategy fit the current cultural values of the TDSB and those whose interest they represent? Does the plan easily integrate into the currentsystems and initiatives that exist in TDSB schools? Will this strategy be complementary or disruptive to the current operations causing systemic and regulatory changes? More Dots = High fit Less Dots = Low fit

STRATEGIES

SIGNPOSTS: • Evidence on the value of cultural practices Startups using research findings Research around the practice of shared meals, family meals, minimizing food waste techniques, preserving food have been linked to evidence of health and well-being. These findings are being applied in innovative ways. Startups such as “meal sharing” works like AirBnB where you can choose a meal, book it and eat it with new people. As Forbes points out about these shared economy innovations, “allowing others into one’s life in ways previously not considered “normal” – at least from a cultural perspective.”

• More schools adopting well-rounded nutrition curriculums Grow-your-food classes

A Healthy Relationship with Food Strategy Title

RATIONALE

This strategy emerges from the “Diet Couture” scenario to alleviate the loss of cultural practices and lack of basic nutritional knowledge. Having a good relationship with food is something that is considered a vital part of healthy eating and well-being. It can be instilled in children using two tactics: adopting healthy food practices universally accepted from other cultures and having comprehensive nutrition classes in schools. Many cultural food practices have a huge contribution to reducing obesity levels in children, sustaining health and well-being and promoting happiness. For example, a lot of cultures around the world support the concept of a shared meal and food as a way of bonding and spending time with the loved ones. “Evidence suggests that children who take part in family meals are less likely to be overweight (Fulkerson, Kubik, Story, Lytle, & Arcan, 2009; Hammons & Fiese, 2011; Neumark-Sztainer, Hannan, Story, Croll, & Perry, 2003;), and eat more healthy foods (Taveras et al., 2005; Videon & Manning, 2003; Hammons & Fiese, 2011)…” (Cook & Dunifon). Maintaining shared meals in school cafeterias is important to foster community and social cohesion among students. The second way of developing a good relationship with food is by learning about nutrition through hands-on participation in growing and cooking healthy foods. Increased awareness about healthier food options and the associated benefits help children make more informed decision about diet choices throughout their life. Having a “food and nutrition” class as part of the curriculum can help instill a good relationship with food during the impressionable stage of a person’s life. The class curriculum can include information on types of healthy foods, hands-on experience growing food, cooking healthier meals, knowledge about remedies through foods and learning about various nutritional values. “An important building block in a literate society is a higher level of food awareness. We’ve moved away from that because food has been so cheap,” said Evan Fraser, a University of Guelph professor and co-author of the food security tome Empires of Food: Feast, Famine, and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations. “We need some basic food literacy. The entry point to that cultural shift is through a school nutrition program.” (as cited in Leeder, 2011)

Various organizations have already begun to promote the idea of food and nutrition as part of children’s education. One such organization is “The edible schoolyards.” Their mission is to “build and share a national edible education curriculum for pre- kindergarten through high school.” (“Our work,” 2016) They believe that “ integrating this curriculum into schools can transform the health and values of every child in America.” (“Our work,” 2016) These approaches can have a massive impact on how the future generation perceives food and makes food choices.

• Rate of childhood obesity rising rapidly • Fast foods and junk food companies growing

TIMEFRAME: The implementation and relevance of this strategy can be executed in today’s world and should continue for at least 20 years to assess its generational impact.

RISKS / CONTINGENCIES / CAVEATS: • Cultural disagreements and differences might arise as to which practices are commonly shared and appreciated. Questions might arise such as: What cooking methods should be taught that are not offensive to personal values and cultures? What food growing methods are being used? The school board will have to be careful in choosing what methods, practices and food types they use in designing the curriculum for “food and nutrition” classes. • Changing practices takes time. For example, a child will not feel comfortable if she/he is not used to eating in a group and sharing meals. School cafeterias may need to change equipment and dining furniture to accommodate “family-style” eating. It will take time and and resources for new practices to become the norm. • Sharing meals in a “family-style” setting can alienate students who have food allergies and may not be able to partake in the social interactions in a communal table. • Students might think of nutrition classes simply as another subject in the curriculum. They may not appreciate its long-term value. Approach to this class needs to be participatory and “hands-on” so children retain the learnings and values are instilled. • Not all schools have land or plots available for school gardens. Alternatives need to be designed to accommodate schools specially in urban settings where land is scarce. • Students and parents might contest major changes to the curriculum – it may not be aligned with their home values. Students might face contradicting messages, which may raise confusion in a child. This contrast can affect children’s behavior and performance in schools, which might result in misleading data towards the analysis of implementing this strategy.

STRATEGIES

MEASURES OF SUCCESS: It is often hard to measure the success of a human-centered, long-term impact intervention, however, we will know if developing a positive relationship with foods in children is having a positive effect when: • Healthy food knowledge and practices (cooking, growing) translates into good eating. Students will start adopting the practices outside their schools. • Data will show a decrease in obesity and increase in the health and well-being of students between the ages of 2 to 17 in Canada. It will be hard to analyze this as there can be other variables adding to the health and wellbeing. However, one way of measuring this could be seeing patterns of change over time in kids who were prone to obesity and unhealthy lifestyle according to their DNA testing. • Reduced rate of obesity in adults aged 40 years old and above compared to value at start of implementation. • Nationwide implementation of shared meals in cafeteria and enhanced school curriculum to include “food and nutrition” class. • The school board provides resources such as additional staff or faculty, tools, classroom equipment to facilitate nutrition classes in schools.

INFLUENCE:

Strategy Title

The school board and Health Canada will have to work together with teachers, program designers, food scientists, farmers, and registered dietitians to design the shared meal concepts for the school cafeteria and a comprehensive “food and nutrition” class added to the curriculum. It will need to be an effective intervention to positively influence measures of obesity, health and well- being without sacrificing individual values. The school board will have to be active in bringing all these systems and people together. It will play a vital role in being the driving force and effective implementer.

IMPLICATION FOR SCHOOLS: • Additional cost of designing the curriculum, resources, tools and equipment. • Consideration on how to budget time periods to accommodate the new class. Does it extend time in school or does it take from another existing class i.e. Physical Education? • Monitoring and measures of success need to be identified to measure effectiveness of new class.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PARENTS: • Reliance on schools to instill healthier food values in attempts to lower obesity rates. Increases convenience for parents who are struggling to juggle their time between family and work. • Decrease in depression levels in kids which, in many cases, is an indirect consequence of obesity and a major concern for most parents.

IMPLICATIONS FOR STUDENTS: • Healthy and happier lifestyles that help students perform better academically and in other spheres of life. • Having knowledge about food will help these students make healthy choices throughout their life.

Financial Cost: Risk: Environmental Impact: Influence: Strategic Fit: 65

STRATEGIES

SIGNPOSTS: • Rising number of people adopting this service Growing Genetic Information The amount of genetic information collected and stored in publicly funded biobanks is growing exponentially (Caulfied and Koppers, 2009).

• DNA related laws being implemented (or not) No laws in Canada

Privacy Policy Against DNA Discrimination in Schools Strategy Title RATIONALE: With the mapping of the human genome successfully completed in 2003, concerns have come to the forefront regarding the collection, storage and possible misuse of personal genetic information. While most current uses are related to understanding one’s DNA to inform healthcare decisions or medical research, great concerns have been raised such information enables discrimination if potentially used for insurance, employment and recently schools. In 2012, an 11-year-old boy named Colman Chadam was dismissed from Jordan Middle School because he carried certain “genetic markers” for cystic fibrosis. According to Taub (2016), the school made a decision after the parents of two other students who suffer from the condition raised concerns about Chadam’s attendance, as it is considered dangerous for people with cystic fibrosis to come into contact with each other. It turns out, Chadam does not have cystic fibrosis despite what his DNA testing revealed. The parents have filed a lawsuit against the school, in what might be a first case of DNA discrimination in schools. The school board’s privacy statement has guidelines on the collection and use of personal health information. However, this does not explicitly include DNA information and therefore, this can be a potential gray area. Also, there are no federal laws in Canada that specifically protect against DNA discrimination. Direct-to-consumer genomic companies such as 23 & Me are becoming more prevalent and the cost has significantly decreased over the years making DNA testing more accessible to a wider consumer base. A simple genetic test can cost anywhere from $99-$200, sometimes less depending on the type of test involved (DNA Goes Mainstream, 2015). Adoption of genomic services can affect the school board when students, like Chadam, disclose DNA information. Leakage can lead to misguided actions and social stigma. The school board may also adopt genomic services to benefit the safety and health of students, including screening for food allergies and nutrigenomics informed diets. As DNA testing’s predictive capacity is becoming more accurate and access to online-based information more ubiquitous, there is a need to protect information from being mined and exploited. The school board can act in the best interest of its students by amending its privacy statement to include measures against DNA discrimination.

To date, Canada does not have any law specific to the protection of DNA information. Under the Canadian Human Rights Act, genetic information can be considered as prohibited ground, when construed as a disability but it can still exclude someone from some goods and services if there is a “Bona Fide Justification” (BFJ). For example, if an employer or an insurance company, demonstrates, in good faith, that there is a requirement to obtain genetic information in relation to a legitimate goal, the law does not provide an explanation to what extent genetic information can be used (Lemmens, Pullman and Rodal, 2010). In 2010, Bill C-508, an enactment that amends the Canadian Human Rights Act to add genetic characteristics as a prohibited ground of discrimination did not become law (Open Parliament, 2010). PIPEDA (The Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act) does have some provisions which may be of relevance. It covers the consent of collection, use or disclosure of personal information of only what is required for legitimate purposes. In order to justify collecting and using genetic information, or any other information, in addition to consent an insurance company subject to PIPEDA would need to be able to demonstrate that the information serves a legitimate purpose, that it is necessary for that purpose and that a reasonable person would consider the collection and use appropriate (Lemmens, Pullman, and Rodal, 2010). Laws in US and Europe GINA (Genetic Information and Non-Discrimination Act) became law in the United States in 2008. It prohibits the use of genetic information for insurance and employment purposes. Some controversy around this law includes the fact that the US Military and companies with employees less than 15 are exempt, and it does not apply to long-term care, life or disability insurance. Customers can get legally denied of a life insurance policy because of their genetic information (Scutti, 2014). The Council of Europe’s Convention on Human Rights and Biomedicine explicitly prohibits genetic discrimination in many European countries. (need to get year and country info)

• More complaints or law suits that may arise in insurance, employment or education sectors. • Rising number of genomic start-ups gaining popularity. • Rise in coalitions or organizations that rally for legislation against DNA discrimination such as Canada Coalition for Genetic Fairness (CCGF).

TIMEFRAME: This should be addressed as soon as possible as genomic companies are already becoming more prevalent, marketing to consumers is getting more sophisticated and cost has significantly decreased. Individuals need to be protected about how their personal information is being used.

STRATEGIES

RISKS / CONTINGENCIES / CAVEATS: • The school board’s privacy policy has exceptions. Information is released to staff on a “needto-know” basis and can be given to other parties if justified by law or required by law. These exceptions may need to be reviewed regarding the use of DNA information. • Students can only be protected within the school district as there are no federal laws in Canada. • Genetic information stored in online databases are still vulnerable to hacking and leakage.

MEASURES OF SUCCESS: We will know if the protection of privacy is no longer an issue when: • There are no complaints or lawsuits involving DNA discriminations specifically within the education sector. • Parents are comfortable volunteering their child’s DNA information, if available. • Parents are comfortable allowing their child to participate in genomic services within the school setting, if available.

INFLUENCE:

Strategy Title

The school board has the authority to create policies that protect its students and staff. As the largest school board in Canada, the move to create a DNA discrimination policy may positively influence other school boards to follow. They can also gain the attention of the provincial and federal government and be instrumental in pushing for a nationwide legislation.

IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOLS: Schools need to ensure DNA information is safely stored, that measures are in place should leakage occurs. They also need to revisit exceptions and when it's necessary to disclose such information to third parties. Acting now, prepares the school board for any future action. Schools may be more willing to adopt services that include DNA profiling whether it's to inform dietary choices in the cafeteria or risk information related to physical activity. This policy, however, may not diminish the school’s liability should there be accidental or intended leakage.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PARENTS: Parents who are concerned about their’s child’s DNA information being exploited or discriminated upon can be assured a privacy policy exists designed to protect it. They may be more willing to have their child undergo genomic services for whatever reason it serves them.

IMPLICATIONS FOR STUDENTS: Students’s health and risk information are protected. Despite all efforts however, students may not be protected from verbal or physical bullying should any information leak putting them at a social disadvantage.

Financial Cost: Risk: Environmental Impact: Influence: Strategic Fit: 69

STRATEGIES on nutritional well-being of the expectant mother and of the child throughout their developmental years. Better nutritional surveillance of children is required to support this policy priority. In Canada, we have almost no national information on food intakes and nutritional status of children, and the extent and nature of nutritional problems that may exist. (McAmmond et al., 2000) In the US, data on food and nutrition policies are collected at the state, district and school level every 6 years. There’s no comparable data collected in Canada. Provinces and some school districts have created their own survey of foods sold and served at school. The information collected vary from one province to the next.

• Nutrition-based initiatives failing

Nationwide School Food Policy & Enforcement Strategy Title RATIONALE: Obesity and diet-related diseases are a nationwide issue. It’s time to consolidate the country’s efforts into a comprehensive food policy that can be applied to all schools, enabling children to grow with healthy food habits that can last a lifetime. This strategy aims at developing a nationwide nutritional guideline for schools. Currently, the school food policy is developed at the provincial level and as a result, there is a wide interpretation of what healthy eating means as evidenced by the varying initiatives in school districts and provinces across the nation. There is also an inconsistency and lack of measures of its effectiveness with little to no enforcement at the school level. Meanwhile, the country’s obesity rate and diet-related diseases like diabetes continue to rise. In 2008, Healthy Food for Healthy Schools Act was passed. The act addresses healthy eating in schools, including dropping trans fat from food and beverages sold in schools and establishing mandatory nutrition standards for food and beverages sold in schools (Healthy Schools, 2016) . While this effort is a step in the right direction, enforcement of such guidelines fall to the wayside as most caterers in school cafeterias are fast food and quick serve providers – healthy eating is not necessarily their main goal. Thirty TDSB cafeterias have been slated to close because they’re struggling to meet the school food guidelines, keep food affordable and not labour intensive (Rushowy, 2015).

SIGNPOSTS: • Poor metrics and no enforcement Need for Enhanced Food and Nutrition Surveillance Food and nutrition in schools is not measured comprehensively and accurately enough to create a clear picture of whether programs and policies are effective. Healthy child development is a major policy priority of the federal and provincial governments. Ensuring that children get the best possible start in life relies critically

Adverse Effects of Nutritional Program & Question on Implementation For students with perfectionist tendencies, following nutrition instruction to the letter has some developing sudden food neuroses. They would obsess with reading nutritional labels, exercise compulsively and heavily restrict fats. One has ended up in the hospital diagnosed with an eating disorder that doesn’t exactly fall into the category of bulimia or anorexia (Kirkey, 2013). In some cases, teachers who tell students to put away foods like granola bars with chocolate chips leave them with a stigma. It’s giving the message to the child, in front of her peers that her parents have it wrong. Dr. Leora Pinhas, a child psychiatrist at Sick Kids and co-chair of the Growing Healthy Bodies working group of The Sandbox Project, shares “The programs present this idea that weight loss is good, that only thin is healthy. We live in a culture that stigmatizes fat people, and we’ve turned it into this kind of moralistic health thing.” ( as cited in Kirkey, 2013)

TIMEFRAME: 2-3 years to implement within school districts, then rolling out to provinces. Cafeteria service providers need time to adapt and school boards will likely need new RFPs.

RISKS / CONTINGENCIES / CAVEATS: • Policies on education and health are created and governed at a provincial level. A nationwide Nutrition Guideline needs cooperation and collaboration from district, provincial and national levels of government. This may require many other stakeholders such as the Ministries of Health Promotion and Nutrition Standards for Schools Committee, a sub-committee of the education ministry's Healthy Schools Working Table that includes representatives from education, health and the food industry sectors, to advise on the development of the policy and nutrition standards. • A standard nutrition guideline across the nation does not necessarily mean an additional implementation of a national meal plan. Countries like France have been praised for its healthy, diverse and cooked-from-scratch school lunches. It has a national food policy but school meal program are determined with input from parents and teachers and subsidized by each municipality (Hyslop, 2014). • Implementation and ongoing assessments are equally as important and need to be part of the strategic plan. “Evaluation of Canadian nutrition and physical activity policies will enrich both our understanding of the policy and its outcomes. It can inform decision making, document changes to the policy, contribute to the evidence base and provide accountability. (report)” • Any change to policy will need incremental expenditures and budget allocations not only to applied to the process but in implementation and future assessments. • In Canada, most school meal programs are aimed at food insecure kids and not necessarily on healthy eating in general. There may be a battle in securing funding for an initiative that purely focuses on disease prevention.

STRATEGIES

MEASURES OF SUCCESS: We will know if a nationwide nutrition guideline in schools are successful if: • There is evidence, from ongoing assessments, that children are indeed eating healthier as a measured by types of foods consumed, better academic performance and behaviour, and over time, decrease in incidence of diet-related diseases. • Parents are comfortable and happy to let their children eat school cafeteria food understanding that the school food policy enforces their desire for good nutrition.

INFLUENCE: Even as the Big City School Board is Canada's largest school board and the fourth largest school board in North America, they will need to support from other districts, provincial and national levels of government to push for a nationwide school food policy. Given their position of influence, they need to be a prominent actor that rallies the cause for the entire nation.

IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOLS:

Strategy Title

• If school boards are not able to provide food vendors that meet the requirements of the nationwide nutritional plan, individual schools must be ready to take action and search for their own caterers that fit the guidelines.

• Schools need to have metrics in place that can measure this initiative. Furthermore, they need to implement practices on how best to enforce the policies. Additional resources may be required either through staffing or with the use of technology. • Schools must inform and convince parents and students of the overall initiative in order for the nutritional policies to be enforced even with foods being brought from home.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PARENTS: A standard nutritional policy will leave parents assured about the nutrition their child gets while in school however if the rules extend to home brought meals, this may be a struggle for some parents who can’t find the time to prepare healthy meals.

IMPLICATIONS FOR STUDENTS: Students gain the benefits from having a standardized nutritional policy. This ensures that foods in schools have all been assessed as “healthy”. Their academic performance and behaviour may noticeably improve.

Financial Cost: Risk: Environmental Impact: Influence: Strategic Fit: 73

STRATEGIES literacy amongst others however, the waste minimization practices presently outlined, only tackles used material waste (Evers et al, 2014). It should include the following programs and initiatives in addition to their current list of best practices to reduce waste before it is discarded and post-use waste:

Renewable Energy Currently, education systems include lessons on renewable and non-renewable sources of energy. However, very few schools put these lessons into practice. Kids can learn how to use food waste created to generate electricity from methane.

Embrace the Uglies Several organizations currently have the mandate to salvage otherwise discarded food produce at a discounted price. By partnering with such organizations, the school board can reduce the cost of food purchases as well as create awareness of food waste and foster positive relationships with food.

Reduce Food Waste in Schools Strategy Title RATIONALE This strategy emerges from Eat This, Cure That! A scenario where there is a high demand for human effort to produce food that caters to very specific diet related issues. As a result, the cost of food is high, because farmers are unable to mass-produce and must diversify their produce offering to recoup costs. Mass production with large requirements on human effort risks increasing food waste. To date, there are several reasons why food waste exists:

Ambiguous Dating System – “Sell by” and “Best by” The lack of formal definitions or standardization across date labelling policies and practices is a problem because it gives false signals to consumers. According to reports, about 60% of consumers are throwing food away prematurely because they don't understand what the dates displayed on the products (Baldwin et al., 2014). The 'sell by' date is information only useful to the store staff, to alert them on when a product should leave the store shelves, leaving a reasonable amount of shelf life for the consumer after purchase. To customers, however, it is unnecessary information that confuses them on the validity of the food after that date.

Regulations and Litigations Grocery stores are unaware of the policies and laws governing food donations and would rather throw food out than face litigation (Uzea et al., 2013).

Cosmetic Standards Up to 40% of total crop yield is discarded due to high retail grading standards (Bond, 2013). In the absence of alternative markets, the sub-standard but still edible produce is thrown out. Produce is rejected based on strict quality standards relating to appearance, weight, size, colour and shape. They are then diverted to animal feed or even ploughed back into the ground.

TACTICS Schools consume a lot of resources and a lot of waste is generated. The school board can take actions to mitigate food waste – one that is currently prevalent and the other that may arise as a result of prescriptive diets for children. Currently, the EcoSchools Program focuses on caring and protecting the environment through energy conservation, waste minimization and ecological

Composting Waste gathered from bins after lunch should be used as compost. By recycling these materials, the school farm can produce a better yield, which would decrease the need for external purchasing of healthy organic food at the stores. Partner with local farms to donate the excess compost.

Donating Schools can develop an online application that allows schools to give their excess food inventory approaching its shell life to local charities. The school board should mandate schools to partner with local charities. It will serve both the products on the shelves near expiry as well as the food prepared that same day. The schools input the food items they have on hand, and local charities in need can access this information and arrange pick-ups.

Creative Recipes As part of fostering a good relationship with food as well as mitigating food waste, cooking classes should involve creating recipes from what is available. One of the major contributors to global food waste is the waste at the home level. There are items in the fridge that are close to expiry, and when no meal combinations come to mind, we allow these items to go bad and only replace with newer produce. Programmers at IBM developed an intelligent algorithm called Watson that helps create meals based on what is available. Users simply input ingredients they have, and the algorithm goes through over 10,000 recipes to create a flavour profile (Bilow, 2015). Schools can implement the use of Watson or similar applications in their Nutrition curriculum or create additions to the recipe database from what is produced in the classroom.

SIGNPOSTS • Increasing food waste • Rise of Global Food Waste In 2011, a study published by Food and Agriculture Organization reported that one-third of the food produced globally -1.3 billion tonnes of food for human consumption is lost or wasted annually, rather than being offered to charities and food banks (FAO, 2011). There are significant environmental and economic impacts as a result of the uneaten food. In the United States, 10 percent of the total energy budget goes toward food production and distribution, yet 40 percent of food is discarded. This food waste represents $165 billion in losses (Gunders, 2012). As the growing population raises serious concern for global food security, the gross amounts of food waste represent a unique opportunity to solve the issue. By increasing efficiency in the current level of production and distribution, we can help meet future demand for a lower increase in agricultural production.

STRATEGIES • School Food Waste is Up According to a study by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency of Minnesota public schools, food waste makes up 23.9% of the total waste generated by schools, the single most common type, of waste (Schools, n.d.). Furthermore, the study conducted a Plate Waste analysis which showed: • Girls tend to waste more food than boys. • Younger children tend to waste more than older children. • Plate waste varies by food type, with salad, vegetables and fruit usually reported to be the most wasted items. (Schools, n.d.

• If legislation is passed regarding Food Waste Currently there are no laws explicitly regulating food waste in Canada. However in France, the senate enacted a law banning supermarkets from destroying edible unsold food and compelling them to sign contracts with charities to donate the edible food or for use as animal feed or composting (Picy, 2015)

TIMEFRAME:

Strategy Title

The school board can begin implementing these strategies in today’s world. They should start with schools that have the capacity and the willingness to implement food waste programs and use stories of success to encourage adoption in other schools as well as school boards both within and outside the province. In 1-2 years all schools should have these strategies adopted.

INFLUENCE: The TDSB can amend their Eco-Schools program to enhance the areas concerning food waste. Strategic partnerships with “green” organizations and local farms can even affect the wider community.

IMPLICATION TO SCHOOLS: There will be cost savings as a result of maximizing resources and partnerships with organizations that supply the ‘uglies’. The school must also take into consideration plans to make the donation practices streamlined and efficient. The school board should monitor adoption of food waste strategies and develop metrics to track progress.

IMPLICATIONS TO PARENTS: Parents will be happy to see these values taught in schools are also translating into the home. In the long-term, this can translate into the practices for the wider community.

IMPLICATIONS TO STUDENTS: Children will become more aware of their waste and will incorporate these habits into their lifestyles both in and out of schools. They will also learn about charitable efforts and help those who may not have access to the same resources. They will carry these ideals – maximizing resources throughout their lives.

RISKS /CONTINGENCIES/ CAVEATS: Limiting Donor Liabilities: Specific terms and definitions will need to be added into current food donation legislation stating explicitly what kinds of food items may be given and the timeframe within which donations can be made. This will protect the schools from absorbing liability and remove uncertainties preventing schools from actively participating in such partnerships. Volume irregularities: The success of several tactics is dependent on the volume of material available. Without a certain scale met the cost of implementation would outweigh the benefits. If the organizations salvaging ugly produce do not produce the scale required to feed a significant portion of the school population such partnerships may be more costly than beneficial. Partnership Requirements: Some tactics outlined require partnerships with external organizations: charities and organizations salvaging ugly produce. As such there may be contracts required to ensure both parties are aware of what their actions are and implications should terms and conditions not be met. Local farms for the composting donation

MEASURES OF SUCCESS: We will know if food waste tatics are effective when: • There is a decrease in the amount of waste generated in schools. • There is a reduction in school food spending as a result of effective use of produce as well as discounted cost from embracing ugly produce. • The number of donation partnerships between schools and local charities increases over time

Financial Cost: Risk: Environmental Impact: Influence: Strategic Fit: 77

STRATEGIES

Engage the Union A union representing school cafeteria workers may work with the TDSB in a possible bid to take over some of the board’s failing and soon-to-be-closed cafeterias. Working directly with the Canadian Union of Public Employees, TDSB officials and school board officials would allow for the development and management of a superior nutritional food services program to educate and feed students. There is an opportunity to bring in more union labor as a way as trying to save money-losing cafeterias.

Cultural Diversity as Catalyst In Seattle’s Public Schools, Seattle WA, they recognized the diversity of the student body as a driver for recreating a healthy lunch menu. Kids and parents were asked to submit recipes that represent their culture for inclusion in the school cafeteria lunch (Leeder, 2011).

Re-invent the School Lunch Strategy Title

SIGNPOSTS: • Current food suppliers can’t execute nutritional guidelines TDSB Cafeterias Closing Currently, 46 TDSB cafeterias are run by the board and operated by Canadian Union of Public Employees workers, while 83 are run by food-service providers from the private sector. Revenue at many school cafeterias plummeted following the provincial government decision in 2012 to introduce healthy-food rules. With falling revenues, many private cafeteria operators have closed down as strict nutritional guidelines constrict profit margins through higher cost products and limited interest from students.

• Government promotes health eating

RATIONALE: From food deserts to food security to superfluous waste, one of the greatest challenges we’re facing is ensuring accessible, affordable and nutritious food for all. With majority of the current school cafeteria food suppliers coming from the fast food industry, there is a need for a new wave of healthy food suppliers and lunch innovations to provide students access to healthy and affordable meal plan options. The school board needs to envision lunch as an extension of the education process. A previously mentioned strategy, fostering a Healthy Relationship with Food, would work hand in hand with healthy lunch innovations. If school gardens are installed, the cafeteria service can use produce from the gardens and visiting local chefs can teach kids to create recipes from it. Using the school gardens is a sustainable cycle where students can gain hands-on experience in growing, cooking and tasting food right from the school yard. Furthermore, the school board can take actions to improve nutrition and accessibility by using the following strategies:

Entrepreneur-Led Cafeteria Innovation in Schools The fast food industry has experienced rapid and continual growth in North America appealing to the consumer’s need for cheap and convenient meals. Unfortunately, this has lead to a growing child obesity issue largely due to the “fast food” culture. Building a new breed of entrepreneurs in the food industry is a priority needed to be cultivated through government grants targeting green food companies and entrepreneur-led organizations leading the healthy fast food. The cafeteria is a good place to start as many cafeterias are slated to close in Ontario because they can’t comply with the provincial health guidelines. The TDSB said, “its looking at closing some cafeterias that are making as little as $35 a week” because its too expensive to run with very little interest from students. This represents an opportunity for food suppliers to get create to bring students back to the cafeteria. Projects like Susur Lee’s “My Food My Way”, an initiative designed to breathe life and profit back into Toronto school lunchrooms, led by the Canadian Union of Public Employees, which represents cafeteria works for the TDSB, needs to be bolstered through government funding to encourage entrepreneurial-led organizations making change.

“Health Choices” for Children To promote healthy living and better knowledge of the food we eat, the new Liberal National Food Policy includes a new “Healthy Choices” program to educate Canadians on healthy eating. Introduction of strong new regulatory standards on transfats. 40 million over four years to implement a new federal “Healthy Start program to support existing programs helping 250,000 children from low-income families access healthy, home-grown foods, in partnership with the provinces, territories and NGO’s. The liberal government also commits to ongoing support for the Canada Prenatal Nutrition Program and Aboriginal Head Start Program. 80 million over four years to create a “Buy Local Fund”. The Fund will promote high-quality, homegrown foods produced by local farmers and support a Farmers’ Markets Development Program to market and grow Canadian’s farmers’ markets, in cooperation with the provinces and territories.

• New wave of “cool cafeteria” lunches emerging In the US, several school districts have launched their own initiatives to change school lunches along with innovations that encourage healthy eating: In Boulder Valley School District, Colorado, they came from serving highly processed foods to serving all healthy, from-scratch foods. Half of the schools have gardens where kids get a hands-on food education. In Minneapolis Public Schools, Minnesota, they updated school lunch program to healthier meals and and added a food truck for schools that may not have access to facilities. The district received grants from Second Harvest and United Way to refurbish the food truck. In Colonial School District, DE and multiple schools in DC Greens, Washington D.C., the schools invite local chefs to create menus. Students are invited to food tasting and they get to see the food as a produce before it’s cooked. (as cited in Leeder, 2011)

STRATEGIES

TIMEFRAME:

IMPLICATIONS FOR CHILDREN:

Depending on current contracts, the implementation of a healthier food supplier can be addressed as soon as possible through new RFPs or call for lunch innovations, inviting food entrepreneurs to work with pilot schools. Testing phase can happen within 6 months - 1 year and roll out to other schools in 2-3 years.

Limited accessibility to healthy food options may impact a child’s development as nutrient deficiencies lead to several diseases and illnesses. Also, the lack of accessibility of healthy food may affect a student’s performance and behaviour. Students coming from lower-income families will be able to access the revitalized healthy cafeteria.

RISKS & CONTINGENCIES: • Securing financing and government subsidies may be difficult to achieve. The school board may need to explore partnerships with non-government organizations who rally the cause. • Private interest from the food sector may be stifled by strict nutritional guidelines limiting potential profit margins in cafeteria. • Union workers taking on privately operated cafeterias represent contentious legal grounds where private contractors have legal and binding agreements with the board. • Contracts of current cafeteria suppliers may not be up for several years and this may present a significant delay in implementation.

MEASURES OF SUCCESS:

Strategy Title

We will know if the accessibility to healthy food options is no longer an issue when:

• If student involvement in school cafeterias goes up following a change in food supplier catering healthy more creative food options including high-quality, organic, designer foods etc. Students prefer to eat school cafeteria food and they don’t bring in food from home or outside school.

• The emergence of entrepreneurial-led organizations advocating healthy food culture and affecting positive change in schools. • Increase in a number of cafeterias reopening across Canada as new food suppliers than take on the revitalization process. • Cafeterias are happy with their “healthy” margins and consider it to be a sustainable business.

INFLUENCE: It is the school board’s primary responsibility to develop and manage a nutritional food services program. The choice of food suppliers is in their hands. Together with input from schools who may have already started their initiatives, organizations who champion food literacy and healthy eating, and food industry entrepreneurs, the board can innovate on a new healthy lunch program.

IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOLS: Change in a lunch program requires funding for needed resources and possibly staff. Schools may need to assign an internal food ambassador to coordinate innovation efforts from external sources (e.g. local chefs and local farmers). If school food gardens become a produce resource, real estate needs to be evaluated and alternatives need to be designed for schools with scarce land. Students must be involved in the design of the new program to allow for high engagement upon implementation.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PARENTS:

Financial Cost: Risk: Environmental Impact: Influence: Strategic Fit:

Parents who rely on fast food options, for reasons of affordability can be assured that there will be healthier meal plan options offered by new food suppliers.

STRATEGIES

Wind Tunnelling The Strategies

Strategy Title

Each of the strategies was tested against the four scenarios: Super Fit, Super Fat, Diet Couture, Eat This, Cure That, and Everyone’s a Farmer. As Van Der Heijden explains, scenarios are the test conditions, representing various business environments in which the strategy has to perform.

We explored how each strategy fared against the conditions of the scenario, what threatened it’s viability, what factors must we consider to shape and move in the direction we envision. Testing the strategies helped choose the best overall strategic options and allowed us to plan should any of the scenarios emerge.

Evaluation Criteria

This ranking system was developed based on the degree of positive impact each strategy had on a given scenario when tested against each world’s unique conditions. • L (Low): Little to no effect because similar conditions may already exist and strategy isn’t causing a change in the status quo.

Strategies

Super Fit, Super Fat

Diet Couture

Eat this, cure that

Everyone's a Farmer

Privacy Law

Nationwide Food Policy

Reduce Food Waste

Re-invent School Lunch

Healthy Relationship

• M (Medium): World is effected positively showing good outcomes and moderately reducing risk. • H (High): World is positively effected resulting in high, positive change, negative consequences mitigated.

Strategy Title

WHAT'S NEXT? 84

Majority of the strategies defined are interdependent and have a significant impact on each other, boosting it’s ability to create positive change if executed in a timely manner. For example, in fostering a Healthy Relationship with Food, a curriculum change impacts how kids perceive food and the choices they make. It should be implemented closely with the revitalization of school cafeterias. In the same way, healthy new lunch fare needs to be based on a nutritional guideline that should stem from a standard, nationwide initiative – the Nationwide School Food Policy strategy. Even the strategy Reducing Food Waste is inextricably linked to all of the strategies above. A study by the Chez Panisse Foundation of Edible Schoolyard showed that “gardening and culinary education increased students’ nutrition knowledge and broadened their taste for and consumption of fruits and vegetables.” When students have a hand in producing the food served in their cafeteria, they’re much less likely to waste it at lunchtime (End Waste Food Now, 2016). The Privacy Policy against DNA Discrimination might seem like an outlier today however it is increasingly relevant to diets, health and overall well being. They must prepare for the possible future where genomics services are ubiquitous. It is in the best interest of the TDSB to start planning for these strategies, specially those which they have full authority to implement immediately. For the Nationwide School Food Policy strategy that requires involvement of different levels of government, it is recommended they take an active role in advocating for student health to help this policy come into effect.

STRATEGIES

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Photograph Sources:

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Illustration Sources:

p. 14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36 and 38, various vector icons from Flaticon.com p.44, illustration of food vending machine, adapted from Shutterstock.com and Freepik.com p.46, illustration of dining table with four place settings, adapted from Shutterstock.com and Freepik.com

APPENDIX - Time Machine Nutrition facts

p. 48, illustration of urban gardens in cityscape adapted from Shutterstock.com and Freepik.com p. 50, illustration of prescription sheet with food adapted from Freepik.com

Strategy Title

Sample School Report card FIRST TERM REPORT CARD Student: JANE DOE

ID: 995659078

Days Absent: 3

Total Days Absent: 3

Grade: 6

Teacher: Mrs Rementilla

Times Late: 0

Total Times Late: 0

Ribit Cover Art

LEARNING ASSESSMENT PBL 1: PREVIEWING HISTORY COMPONENT

ASSESSMENT

Teamwork (24/25)

Worked well with team. Contributed in a valuable way to the project. Showed mutual respect and collaborative skills

Subject Knowledge (21/25)

Demonstrated knowledge of the course content by integrating major learnings into the response

Content and Creativity (34/40)

Demonstrated imaginative and effectiveness in conveying ideas. Used external research to justify view points. Presentation was original and captivating

Speaking Skills and Participation (9/10)

Demonstrated poise and clarity in tone

88% A+

NUTRITION ASSESSMENT HEALTH RISK RISK

STARTING RISK LEVEL

CURRENT RISK LEVEL

Type 2 Diabetes

36.8%

28%

Restless Legs Syndrome

4.3%

Coeliac Disease

1.2%

0.3%

Bipolar Disorder

0.23%

0.16%

RISK

STARTING RESULTS

CURRENT RESULTS

Personal Vitamin & Micronutrient Needs

Typical

Anti-Oxident Requirements

Raised

Normal

Carbohydrate & Saturated Fat

Raised

Normal

Salt, Sugar & Caffeine Sensitivity

High

Medium

DIET PROFILE

Nutrition Profile Sample Report