CENTRAL FLORIDA MSA
MARKET REPORT
Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 Accelerating success.
INDUSTRIAL
Research
Valerie Tatum | Senior
Associate, West and Central Florida
¨ § ¦ 4 ¨ § ¦ 4 ¨ § ¦ 95 ¨ § ¦ 75 ¨ § ¦ 75 Oc al a Po l k / Pl an t Ci t y Sara s o ta / Ma na te e Orl a nd o Tam pa
¨ § ¦ 95 Contents Central Florida MSA .............................................................. 4 Tampa Bay MSA ...................................................................... 8 Orlando MSA ........................................................................... 12 Plant City/Polk County ......................................................... 16 Greater Ocala MSA ................................................................ 18 Sarasota/Manatee ................................................................. 20
Key Takeaway
Florida’s infrastructure initiative proposed more than $7B in funding towards the state’s transportation infrastructure in existing and future FDOT projects along the Interstate-4 corridor, Interstate-75 and Interstate-95, commonly referenced as “The Golden Distribution Triangle.” The proposed changes will benefit these main thoroughfares that give access to the region, meeting the needs of big-box users and fueling the increasing demand of residents and businesses relying on quick delivery capabilities.
Executive Summary
Florida, the third most populous state, was also the nation’s fastest-growing state at the end of 2022. With year-over-year population increases of 1.9% and an impressive talent pipeline that has filtered throughout the Central Florida area, many companies have relocated to take advantage of the quality of life, moderate cost of living and strong tax incentives. As a result, the industrial and flex space inventory reached almost 550 million sq. ft. after adding 4.4M sq. ft. of new inventory and increasing the vacancy rate slightly to 4.9%, 130 basis points (bps) over the same time last year. Sarasota/Manatee County had the lowest vacancy in the MSA. The overall vacancy rate trended under 2.0% for seven consecutive quarters before the
Market Indicators
Historic Comparison
slight uptick during Q1 2023 after delivering 700K sq. ft. of space in 2022. Based on the increased leasing demand for industrial space, the forecasted vacancy rate will hover under the 5% range even upon the completion of additional industrial buildings. With new projects delivered to the Orlando MSA market, tenants absorbed 5.4M sq. ft. over the past four quarters. Sales volume slowed during the first quarter of the year as developers and investors approached deals more carefully, and lenders reduced underwriting on some due to economic uncertainty caused by the recent hikes in interest rates. This downturn in activity caused a 93% drop in sales compared to the first quarter volume last year.
Market Trends
YOY FORECAST YOY YOY FORECAST YOY FORECAST FORECAST Industrial Central Florida MSA
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Completions Net Absorption Overall Vacancy 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Total Inventory 535,729,167 544,717,726 549,221,553 New Supply (>100K SF) 4,409,053 3,202,951 4,409,053 Net Absorption (YTD) 4,708,537 4,608,056 3,636,068 Overall Vacancy 3.6% 3.8% 4.9% Under Construction 15,605,198 20,387,874 16,758,486 4
23Q1
Unemployment Rate 3.4% U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 1.8% GDP - Quarterly % change yr./yr. Source: Colliers, CoStar, Real Capital Analytics Vacancy Rate 4.9% Net Absorption 3.64M SF Industrial Avg. Direct Asking Rates (NNN) $6.00-10.75/SF Under Construction 16.8M SF
3.1%
Industrial Absorption and Deliveries
Industrial Breakdown by Sq. Ft. With % of Market Availability
Central FL MSA - Sales Volume by Dollar With Interest Rates
Building Material Price Index
Building Material Price Index
Drywall & Concrete
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 5
158,528,661 79,263,936 83,786,508 88,429,819 64,117,948 2.0% 3.1% 5.3% 7.1% 8.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 180,000,000 10K - 50K 50K - 100K 100K - 200K 200 - 500K 500K+ Industrial Sq. Ft. % of Availablility 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 15Q1 16Q1 17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1 Rolling 4-Quarter Volume Quarterly Volume Interest Rates 9 Rate hikes 12 months 2020 two rate cuts in response to global pandemic Rate cut by a quarter of a percentage point 3x's in 2019 Rate hike 9x 2015 - 2018 In Migration
CA Pop Gain: 27K AGI Gain 2.9M IL Pop Gain: 24K AGI Gain 3.1M NY Pop Gain: 57K AGI Gain 6M Pop Gain: 28K AGI Gain 3M PA Pop Gain: 28K AGI Gain 3M NY 2012 AGI gain to Orlando of 2.1M increased 198% in 2022 38% population gain from IL residence in the last 10 $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 $1,400.00 $1,600.00 $1,800.00 $2,000.00 $0.00 $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Steel & Rebar Steel Rebar Square Feet 3,088,738 5,004,961 5,815,737 619,223 121,603 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 Tampa MSA Plant City/Polk County Orlando MSA Greater Ocala Sarasota & Manatee Deliveries 2022-YTD Under Construction 4-QTR Absorption
$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $160.00 $180.00 $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023
Drywall Concrete
Submarket Breakdown By Region
Central Florida MSA Historical Overall Market Stats
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 6
Submarket & Property Type # of Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Tampa MSA Industrial 3,921 148,577,374 2.3% 2.6% 1,035,419 2,962,040 0 1,750,413 $4.95 - $6.95 Flex 658 20,576,834 3.0% 3.2% 11,331 126,698 0 0 $8.00 - $12.50 Overall 4,579 169,154,208 2.7% 2.9% 1,046,750 3,088,738 0 1,750,413 $6.50 Orlando MSA Industrial 4,293 196,610,959 3.3% 3.6% 821,915 5,442,724 4,023,873 8,340,044 $7.25 - $13.50 Flex 963 29,219,705 4.4% 4.6% 147,223 373,013 0 0 $8.75 - $16.50 Overall 5,256 225,830,664 3.9% 4.1% 969,138 5,815,737 4,023,873 8,340,044 $10.75 Plant City/Polk County Industrial 1,057 92,851,887 6.9% 7.1% 2,039,449 4,849,698 0 2,397,554 $5.05 - $6.95 Flex 68 2,792,180 0.9% 0.9% 101,472 155,263 0 0 $9.25 - $15.00 Overall 1,125 95,644,067 3.9% 4.0% 2,140,921 5,004,961 0 2,397,554 $6.00 Greater Ocala Industrial 436 25,191,637 5.4% 5.4% 239,079 542,023 984,960 2,485,923 $7.25 - $13.50 Flex 27 703,338 1.5% 1.5% 15,449 77,200 0 0 $8.75 - $16.50 Overall 463 25,894,975 3.4% 3.4% 254,528 619,223 984,960 2,485,923 $10.50 Sarasota & Manatee Industrial 956 32,014,894 2.0% 2.0% -125,444 121,603 160,000 1,544,384 $7.25 - $13.50 Flex 81 2,092,775 2.2% 2.5% -15,562 -7,314 0 0 $8.75 - $16.50 Overall 1,037 34,107,669 2.1% 2.3% -141,006 114,289 160,000 1,544,384 $10.50
Quarter & Year Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Whse. Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Flex Average Direct Asking Rate NNN 2023 Q1 12,462 550,631,583 4.0% 4.1% 3,373,951 17,206,353 7,798,952 16,758,486 $8.23 $12.37 2022 Q4 12,432 544,717,726 3.7% 3.8% 4,608,056 15,649,593 3,202,951 20,387,874 $7.85 $12.12 2022 Q3 12,398 541,021,671 3.5% 3.7% 2,641,554 15,517,776 2,764,968 21,209,844 $8.77 $11.25 2022 Q2 12,183 536,813,110 3.3% 3.4% 2,181,717 12,160,084 1,153,929 19,714,181 $7.81 $11.25 2022 Q1 12,350 535,729,167 3.5% 3.6% 4,708,537 15,076,751 3,144,553 15,605,198 $6.12 $11.10 2021 Q4 12,320 531,490,226 3.5% 3.7% 6,050,169 14,202,177 2,861,010 13,019,907 $5.90 $11.29 2021 Q3 12,297 527,442,360 3.7% 4.0% 2,774,011 12,940,907 1,554,704 12,937,147 $5.65 $11.24 2021 Q2 12,287 525,860,356 3.9% 4.1% 4,409,955 11,446,631 2,984,502 11,898,531 $5.51 $10.36 2021 Q1 12,272 522,875,854 4.2% 4.3% 3,447,879 11,902,907 1,714,961 11,935,805 $5.41 $10.06
Significant Sales Activity
Significant Lease Activity
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 7 Address Space Type Size Buyer Sales Price Submarket I-4 Beltway Logistics (4-Properties) Industrial 547,753 Bentall Green Oak $65,173,994 $119/SF Seminole Pace Logistics Center Industrial 464,400 Bentall Green Oak $50,200,000 $108/SF Polk County/ Plant City
Address Space Type Size SF Tenant Lease Type Submarket I-4 Logistics Park Industrial 984,960 Amazon Direct W Volusia Southern Oaks Business Park Industrial 455,154 Telsa Direct Polk County/ Plant City 995 N Old Lake Wilson RdHorizon West Industrial 291,875 Performance Food Group Direct Osceola Lakeland Industrial Center Industrial 200,000 Star Distribution Direct Polk County/ Plant City 500 McKean Street Industrial 100,600 US LBM Holding Direct Polk County/ Plant City 11700 Landstar BlvdLandstar Logistics Center Industrial 99,176 Packaging Exchange Direct SE Orange 791 N Old Lake WilsonHorizon West Industrial 96,811 JCQ Services Direct Osceola Denotes Colliers Represented Transaction Bold
Tampa Bay MSA 23Q1
Key Takeaways
• Vacancy rates remain at an all-time low as the development pipeline added more than 1.7M sq. ft. of industrial space in 2022 and 2.4M sq. ft. currently under construction.
• Tampa Bay ranked among the fastest-growing large U.S. metro areas and ranked in the top 20 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S.
Market Indicators
Market Trends
Historic Comparison
Source: Colliers, CoStar, Real Capital Analytics
YOY FORECAST YOY YOY FORECAST YOY FORECAST FORECAST Industrial
2.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Completions Net Absorption Overall Vacancy 3.5M sq. ft. of absorption in five-quarters 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Total Inventory 166,856,104 168,523,916 169,154,208 New Supply (>100K SF) 262,000 514,548Net Absorption (YTD) 418,260 1,157,877 1,046,750 Overall Vacancy 3.1% 2.9% 2.6% Under Construction 1,763,605 1,750,413 1,750,413 8
Unemployment Rate 3.4% U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 1.6% GDP - Quarterly % change yr./yr.
Vacancy Rate 2.6% Net Absorption 1.05M SF Industrial Avg. Direct Asking Rates (NNN) $10.72/SF Under Construction 1.75M SF
2.5%
Tampa Bay MSA
Tampa Bay Historical Overall Market Stats
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 9
Submarket & Property Type # of Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Airport Industrial 455 14,543,931 1.4% 1.4% 194,927 375,037 0 245,000 $7.50 - $10.25 Flex 193 5,836,477 2.7% 2.7% -50,494 26,634 0 0 $12.50 - $15.50 Overall 648 20,380,408 2.1% 2.1% 144,433 401,671 0 245,000 $10.25 East Side Tampa Industrial 1,214 64,812,756 2.4% 2.6% 576,786 1,918,086 0 446,385 $6.50 - $9.50 Flex 168 5,694,369 4.1% 4.7% 65,574 84,343 0 0 $12.50 - $15.50 Overall 1,382 70,507,125 3.3% 3.7% 642,360 2,002,429 0 446,385 $8.75 Pasco/Hernando Industrial 442 14,075,333 2.2% 2.2% 189,794 165,785 0 800,960 $5.50 - $8.75 Flex 27 645,215 0.7% 0.7% 8,114 20,340 0 0 $11.00 - $14.00 Overall 469 14,720,548 1.5% 1.5% 197,908 186,125 0 800,960 $7.50 North Pinellas Industrial 329 8,431,346 1.0% 1.0% 45,099 140,070 0 0 $8.50 - $12.75 Flex 53 1,663,373 2.0% 2.0% -3,047 -3,047 0 0 $12.00 - $14.00 Overall 382 10,094,719 1.5% 1.5% 42,052 137,023 0 0 $11.25 Mid-Pinellas Industrial 1,023 34,518,272 1.8% 2.4% 77,622 427,231 0 258,068 $9.00 - $15.25 Flex 174 5,489,881 3.8% 4.1% 16,902 26,446 0 0 $10.75 - $18.00 Overall 1,197 40,008,153 2.8% 3.3% 94,524 453,677 0 258,068 $12.75 South Pinellas Industrial 377 9,861,174 5.7% 5.7% -48,993 6,223 0 0 $12.00 - $17.50 Flex 33 956,230 2.9% 2.9% -24,300 -21,600 0 0 $14.00 - $18.00 Overall 410 10,817,404 4.3% 4.3% -73,293 -15,377 0 0 $14.75
Quarter & Year Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Whse. Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Flex Average Direct Asking Rate NNN 2023 Q1 4,579 169,154,208 2.4% 2.6% 1,046,750 3,088,738 0 1,750,413 $10.72 $13.77 2022 Q4 4,574 168,523,916 2.7% 2.9% 1,157,877 2,460,248 514,548 1,750,413 $9.91 $12.95 2022 Q3 4,569 167,903,474 2.9% 3.2% 103,649 3,191,415 781,598 1,465,568 $9.69 $12.84 2022 Q2 4,435 167,375,110 2.8% 3.0% 780,462 3,593,773 100,000 1,763,605 $8.09 $12.30 2022 Q1 4,554 166,856,104 2.9% 3.1% 418,260 3,842,008 262,000 1,763,605 $7.04 $12.07 2021 Q4 4,547 166,328,187 2.9% 3.1% 1,889,044 4,358,252 74,123 1,385,162 $6.78 $11.52 2021 Q3 4,543 165,067,208 3.4% 3.5% 506,007 3,454,305 128,400 2,627,554 $6.58 $11.55 2021 Q2 4,542 164,938,808 3.5% 3.7% 1,028,697 3,171,737 147,440 1,557,084 $6.03 $11.26 2021 Q1 4,537 164,791,368 4.1% 4.3% 934,504 2,112,868 330,708 1,645,678 $5.89 $11.04
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 10 Address Space Type Size Buyer Sales Price Submarket No Significant Sales Tampa Bay MSA Significant Sales Activity Tampa Bay MSA Significant Lease Activity Address Space Type Size SF Tenant Lease Type Submarket 6708 Harney Rd Industrial 130,021 Breakthru Beverage Group Direct East Tampa Madison Industrial ParkBldg C Industrial 80,000 Accessory Parts of Florida Renewal East Tampa Grand Oaks 75 - Bldg 4 Industrial 68,000 Ally Building Solutions Direct East Tampa 9270 E Columbus Drive Industrial 67,759 RedBull Beverages Direct East Tampa Grand Oaks 75 - Bldg 4 Industrial 44,297 Norwegian Cruise Lines Direct East Tampa
Key Takeaways
•
Industrial Orlando MSA 23Q1
robust leasing of over
sq. ft. in the last year benefited from the direct access to the major thoroughfares of
• Vacancy rates increased slightly to 4.6%, adding 4M sq. ft. to the market.
• Despite the uncertainty of a recession, the projection for Orlando’s sustained population growth , development remain healthy.
Market Indicators
Market Trends
Historic Comparison
YOY FORECAST YOY YOY FORECAST YOY FORECAST FORECAST 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Completions Net Absorption Overall Vacancy 5.4M sq. ft. completed in five-quarters 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Total Inventory 219,989,534 223,427,589 225,830,664 New Supply (>100K SF) 1,328,476 2,303,702 4,023,873 Net Absorption (YTD) 1,481,414 2,590,329 480,577 Overall Vacancy 3.6% 3.1% 3.7% Under Construction 7,515,993 11,584,252 8,340,044 12
Unemployment Rate 3.4% U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 2.5% GDP - Quarterly % change yr./yr.
CoStar, Real Capital Analytics Vacancy Rate 3.7% Net Absorption 481K SF Industrial Avg. Direct Asking Rates (NNN) $6.25-$11.00 SF Under Construction 8.34M SF 2.9%
Source: Colliers,
Interstate
Interstate
Orlando MSA’s
9.9M
4,
95, U.S Highway 27 and Florida’s Turnpike
Orlando MSA
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 13
Submarket & Property Type # of Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Southwest Orange Industrial 771 41,459,522 3.2% 4.1% -169,989 267,212 122,080 155,340 $6.50 - $8.75 Flex 227 6,768,667 3.5% 3.6% 94,645 276,606 0 0 $12.25 - $14.80 Overall 998 48,228,189 3.4% 3.9% -75,344 543,818 122,080 155,340 $11.00 Southeast Orange Industrial 585 45,240,301 2.2% 2.5% -30,743 2,298,480 344,211 1,545,551 $6.50 - $8.45 Flex 105 3,162,313 7.1% 8.3% -15,676 66,545 0 0 $14.75 - $16.50 Overall 690 48,402,614 4.7% 5.4% -46,419 2,365,025 344,211 1,545,551 $6.25 Osceola County Industrial 172 7,249,949 7.4% 7.4% 11,970 88,977 0 0 $7.90 - $10.35 Flex 28 668,885 2.0% 2.7% -14,600 36,862 0 0 $10.95 - $13.40 Overall 200 7,918,834 4.7% 5.1% -2,630 125,839 0 0 $6.50 Lake County Industrial 195 12,073,304 5.0% 5.6% 67,138 385,994 923,480 1,854,216 $4.95 - $6.95 Flex 37 898,369 1.8% 1.8% -2,361 8,884 0 0 $8.00 - $12.50 Overall 232 12,971,673 3.4% 3.7% 64,777 394,878 923,480 1,854,216 $6.50 Northwest Orange Industrial 551 26,354,314 2.8% 3.3% -153,071 443,779 0 3,783,442 $7.20 - $8.45 Flex 83 2,337,344 4.4% 4.4% 25,237 16,245 0 0 $10.50 - $12.50 Overall 634 28,691,658 3.6% 3.9% -127,834 460,024 0 3,783,442 $8.75 Northeast Orange Industrial 173 5,445,128 0.8% 0.8% 11,950 443,779 0 0 $4.95 - $6.95 Flex 85 2,267,364 5.3% 5.8% -15,749 16,245 0 0 $8.00 - $12.50 Overall 258 7,712,492 3.1% 3.3% -3,799 460,024 0 0 $8.00 Seminole County Industrial 674 20,835,799 5.4% 5.4% -500,473 213,711 215,177 214,906 $8.10 - $9.50 Flex 177 4,894,006 4.1% 4.3% 42,713 3,476 0 0 $10.00 - $14.25 Overall 851 25,729,805 4.8% 4.9% -457,760 217,187 215,177 214,906 $6.25 East Volusia Industrial 345 12,759,299 2.5% 2.7% 588,948 599,394 450,690 851,495 $6.50 - $9.50 Flex 47 990,190 4.1% 5.6% -13,925 -9,185 0 0 $12.50 - $15.50 Overall 392 13,749,489 3.3% 4.2% 575,023 590,209 450,690 851,495 $6.25 West Volusia Industrial 166 7,610,098 13.4% 13.4% -28,409 23,349 984,960 0 $5.50 - $8.75 Flex 16 344,787 12.4% 12.4% 30,720 20,680 0 0 $11.00 - $14.00 Overall 182 7,954,885 12.9% 12.9% 2,311 44,029 984,960 0 $6.25 Brevard County Industrial 455 14,543,931 1.4% 1.4% 194,927 265,821 408,794 150,000 $5.50 - $8.75 Flex 193 5,836,477 2.7% 2.7% -50,494 80,131 0 0 $11.00 - $14.00 Overall 648 20,380,408 2.1% 2.1% 144,433 345,952 408,794 150,000 $7.50
Orlando MSA Historical Overall Market Stats
Orlando MSA Significant Sales Activity
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 14
Quarter & Year Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Whse. Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Flex Average Direct Asking Rate NNN 2023 Q1 5,256 225,830,664 3.5% 3.7% 72,758 9,023,640 4,023,873 8,340,044 $9.69 $13.19 2022 Q4 5,242 223,427,589 2.8% 3.1% 2,590,329 6,806,037 2,303,702 11,584,252 $9.29 $12.75 2022 Q3 5,223 221,645,280 3.2% 3.5% 581,909 5,310,432 1,081,979 12,801,787 $8.90 $12.10 2022 Q2 5,210 220,532,471 3.1% 3.3% 1,162,085 2,594,891 842,929 11,214,462 $8.58 $11.87 2022 Q1 5,201 219,989,534 3.4% 3.6% 1,481,414 3,792,784 1,328,476 7,515,993 $7.98 $11.66 2021 Q4 5,186 218,661,058 3.5% 3.7% 2,715,282 4,957,723 1,462,822 5,483,272 $7.67 $11.71 2021 Q3 5,172 217,198,236 4.0% 4.3% 1,618,472 4,157,208 533,914 4,700,738 $7.29 $11.43 2021 Q2 5,168 216,664,322 4.5% 4.8% 1,618,309 4,675,417 737,365 4,016,473 $7.17 $11.85 2021 Q1 5,161 215,926,957 5.1% 5.2% 1,264,153 4,524,905 1,362,253 4,284,528 $7.02 $11.54
Orlando
Address Space Type Size SF Tenant Lease Type Submarket I-4 Logistics Park Industrial 984,960 Amazon Direct W Volusia 995 N Old Lake Wilson RdHorizon West Industrial 291,875 Performance Food Group Direct Osceola 2292 W Sand Lake RoadOCP Industrial 142,737 Confidential Direct SW Orange 11700 Landstar BlvdLandstar Logistics Center Industrial 99,176 Packaging Exchange Direct SE Orange 791 N Old Lake WilsonHorizon West Industrial 96,811 JCQ Services Direct Osceola Address Space Type Size Buyer Sales Price Submarket I-4 Beltway Logistics (4-Properties) Industrial 547,753 Bentall Green Oak $65,173,994 $119/SF Volusia Denotes Colliers Represented Transaction Bold
MSA Significant Lease Activity
Plant City/Polk County 23Q1
Key Takeaways
• As Polk County, Orlando and Tampa populations continue to merge into a metropolis, the I-4 Corridor will benefit from this unprecedented growth.
• Tenants moved into over 5.0M sq. ft. of space during the previous four-quarters continuing the trend of positive absorption since 2017.
• The projection for continued industrial growth in Polk County is expected, as population increases of over 15% over the next five years and companies
Market Indicators
Market Trends
Historic Comparison
Source: Colliers, CoStar, Real Capital Analytics
YOY FORECAST YOY YOY FORECAST YOY FORECAST FORECAST 5.4% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Completions Net Absorption Overall Vacancy 917k sq. ft. completed in five-quarters 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Total Inventory 89,555,917 92,858,127 95,644,067 New Supply (>100K SF) - -Net Absorption (YTD) 1,320,174 811,433 2,140,921 Overall Vacancy 6.2% 6.4% 6.9% Under Construction 3,792,397 2,397,554 2,397,554 16 Industrial
Unemployment Rate 3.4% U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 1.1% GDP - Quarterly % change yr./yr.
Vacancy Rate 6.9% Net Absorption 2.14M SF Industrial Avg. Direct Asking Rates (NNN) $6.25-$11.00 SF Under Construction 2.78M SF
3.1%
Plant City/Polk County
Plant City/Polk County Historical Overall Market Stats
Plant City/Polk County Significant Lease Activity
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 17
Property Type # of Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Plant City/Polk County Industrial 1,057 92,851,887 6.9% 7.1% 2,039,449 4,849,698 0 2,397,554 $6.50 - $8.75 Flex 68 2,792,180 0.9% 0.9% 101,472 155,263 33,800 0 $12.25 - $14.80 Overall 1,125 95,644,067 3.9% 4.0% 2,140,921 5,004,961 33,800 2,397,554 $9.00
Quarter & Year Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Whse. Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Flex Average Direct Asking Rate NNN 2023 Q1 1,125 95,644,067 6.7% 6.9% 2,140,921 5,004,961 0 2,397,554 $7.66 $12.44 2022 Q4 1,119 92,858,127 6.3% 6.4% 811,433 4,184,214 0 2,397,554 $7.27 $12.44 2022 Q3 1,112 91,949,524 6.3% 6.4% 1,856,719 4,813,463 727,610 3,167,383 $6.85 $9.41 2022 Q2 1,046 89,555,917 5.8% 6.0% 195,888 3,333,174 189,000 3,603,397 $6.04 $9.66 2022 Q1 1,105 89,555,917 6.1% 6.2% 1,320,174 4,612,829 0 3,792,397 $5.61 $9.32 2021 Q4 1,102 88,727,446 6.6% 6.8% 1,440,682 4,385,634 1,309,241 2,531,410 $5.52 $9.23 2021 Q3 1,098 87,418,205 6.8% 7.1% 376,430 3,694,784 698,640 2,533,713 $5.28 $9.23 2021 Q2 1,094 86,692,265 6.5% 6.7% 1,475,543 3,686,149 2,089,697 3,291,262 $5.25 $9.16 2021 Q1 1,092 84,602,568 6.0% 6.1% 1,092,979 4,288,950 0 4,354,382 $5.18 $8.21
Plant City/Polk County Significant Sales Activity
Address Space Type Size SF Tenant Lease Type Submarket Southern Oaks Business Park Industrial 455,154 Telsa Direct Polk County/ Plant City Pace Logistics Center - PLC Industrial 291,000 Hyundai Direct Polk County/ Plant City Lakeland Industrial Center Industrial 200,000 Star Distribution Direct Polk County/ Plant City Lakeland Logistics Center Industrial 70,000 Taylor Corporation Direct Polk County/ Plant City 791 N Old Lake WilsonHorizon West Industrial 96,811 JCQ Services Direct Osceola Address Space Type Size Buyer Sales Price Submarket Pace Logistics Center Industrial 464,400 Bental Green Oak $50,200,000 $108/SF Plant City/ Polk County Denotes Colliers Represented Transaction Bold
Greater Ocala MSA 23Q1
Key Takeaways
• Topline Logistics Center completes a 456,540-square-foot speculative industrial building in Ocala, a joint venture of Stonemont Financial Group and U.S. Capital Development. The partnership financed the project’s construction with a $29 million loan from Ameris Bank. (Completed Q2 2023).
• Marion County was listed as the sixth fastest growinig metros by US News & World Report in 2023 report.
• Construction of a 1.4M sq. ft. industrial park facility was underway at the Ocala South Logistic Park
• Industrial demand along the Interstate-75 corridor, coupled with quick access to the major thoroughfares of Interstate-4 and U.S. Highway 27, is expected to support healthy growth in the area.
Market Indicators
2.6%
Historic Comparison
Market Trends
Source: Colliers, CoStar, Real
YOY FORECAST YOY YOY FORECAST YOY FORECAST FORECAST 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Completions Net Absorption Overall Vacancy 1.8M sq. ft. completed in past five-quarters 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Total Inventory 25,565,724 25,960,425 27,270,885 New Supply (>100K SF) 1,200,000 384,701 225,180 Net Absorption (YTD) 1,163,866 (37,974) 108,826 Overall Vacancy 3.7% 5.4% 9.5% Under Construction 2,138,576 2,711,103 2,485,923 18 Industrial
Unemployment Rate 3.4% U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 1.5% GDP - Quarterly % change yr./yr.
Capital Analytics Vacancy Rate 3.7% Net Absorption 481K SF Industrial Avg. Direct Asking Rates (NNN)
SF Under Construction 8.34M SF
$6.25-$11.00
Greater Ocala MSA
Greater Ocala MSA Historical Overall Market Stats
Greater Ocala MSA Significant Sales Activity
Greater Ocala MSA Significant Lease Activity
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 19
Property Type # of Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Marion County Industrial 436 25,191,637 5.4% 5.4% 239,079 542,023 984,960 2,485,923 $6.00 - $13.50 Flex 27 703,338 1.5% 1.5% 15,449 77,200 0 0 $8.75 - $16.50 Overall 463 25,894,975 3.4% 3.4% 254,528 619,223 984,960 2,485,923 $9.75
Quarter & Year Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Whse. Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Flex Average Direct Asking Rate NNN 2023 Q1 465 25,894,975 5.3% 5.3% 254,528 44,507 3,615,079 2,485,923 $6.55 $11.22 2022 Q4 461 25,960,425 5.4% 5.4% -37,974 1,099,547 384,701 2,711,103 $6.38 $11.22 2022 Q3 458 25,575,724 3.8% 3.8% -26,068 1,101,233 0 2,152,378 $9.20 $10.96 2022 Q2 458 25,575,724 3.7% 3.7% -277 1,319,123 10,000 2,152,378 $8.16 $11.21 2022 Q1 457 25,565,724 3.7% 3.7% 1,163,866 1,414,565 1,200,000 2,138,576 $4.99 $11.23 2021 Q4 456 24,365,724 3.7% 3.7% -36,288 250,284 0 2,871,359 $4.76 $12.00 2021 Q3 456 24,365,724 3.5% 3.5% 191,822 817,305 193,750 2,520,460 $4.54 $12.00 2021 Q2 455 24,171,974 3.6% 3.6% 95,165 -43,336 0 2,479,030 $4.55 $9.76 2021 Q1 455 24,171,974 3.9% 4.0% -415 488,092 10,000 1,393,750 $4.48 $9.76
Address Space Type Size SF Tenant Lease Type Submarket No Significant Leases Address Space Type Size Buyer Sales Price Submarket No Significant Sales
Sarasota/Manatee 23Q1
Key Takeaways
• Sarasota and Manatee ranked as one of the fastest business growth counties in Florida as companies look to expand or businesses look to relocate to the area.
• Vacancy rates increased slightly to 2.0% but remained low as development works to keep up with demand.
Market Indicators
Market Trends
• Healthy growth in the area is fueled by industrial demand along the Interstate-75 corridor and quick access to the major thoroughfares as well as to Port Tampa. 2.5%
Historic Comparison
Source: Colliers, CoStar, Real Capital Analytics
YOY FORECAST YOY YOY FORECAST YOY FORECAST FORECAST 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Completions Net Absorption Overall Vacancy 439K sq. ft.. completed in past five-quarters 2022 Q1 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 Total Inventory 33,761,888 33,947,669 34,107,669 New Supply (>100K SF) 354,077 - 160,000 Net Absorption (YTD) 324,823 86,391 (141,006) Overall Vacancy 1.3% 1.1% 2.0% Under Construction 394,627 1,944,552 1,784,552 20 Industrial
Unemployment Rate 3.4% U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 2.1% GDP - Quarterly % change yr./yr.
Vacancy Rate 2.0% Net Absorption -141K SF Industrial Avg. Direct Asking Rates (NNN) $6.25-$11.00 SF Under Construction 1.78M SF
Sarasota & Manatee Historical Overall Market Stats
Sarasota & Manatee Significant Sales Activity
Sarasota & Manatee Significant Lease Activity
Colliers | Central Florida MSA | 23Q1 | Industrial Report Industrial Central Florida MSA 23Q1 21 Sarasota/Manatee Property Type # of Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Sarasota & Manatee Industrial 956 32,014,894 2.0% 2.0% -125,444 121,603 160,000 1,544,384 $7.25 - $13.50 Flex 81 2,092,775 2.2% 2.5% -15,562 -7,314 0 0 $8.75 - $16.50 Overall 1,037 34,107,669 2.1% 2.3% -141,006 114,289 160,000 1,544,384 $10.50
Quarter & Year Buildings Total Inventory SF Direct Vacancy % Total Vacancy % Net Absorption Current Quarter SF 4-Qtr Trailing Total New Completions SF Under Construction SF Whse. Average Direct Asking Rate NNN Flex Average Direct Asking Rate NNN 2023 Q1 1,037 34,107,669 2.0% 2.0% -141,006 44,507 160,000 1,784,552 $6.55 $11.22 2022 Q4 1,036 33,947,669 1.1% 1.1% 86,391 1,099,547 0 1,944,552 $6.38 $11.22 2022 Q3 1,036 33,947,669 1.4% 1.4% 125,345 1,101,233 173,781 1,622,728 $9.20 $10.96 2022 Q2 1,034 33,773,888 1.2% 1.2% 43,559 1,319,123 12,000 980,339 $8.16 $11.21 2022 Q1 1,033 33,761,888 1.3% 1.3% 324,823 1,414,565 354,077 394,627 $4.99 $11.23 2021 Q4 1,029 33,407,811 1.0% 1.3% 41,449 250,284 14,824 748,704 $4.76 $12.00 2021 Q3 1,028 33,392,987 1.0% 1.4% 81,280 817,305 0 554,682 $4.54 $12.00 2021 Q2 1,028 33,392,987 1.5% 1.6% 192,241 -43,336 10,000 554,682 $4.55 $9.76 2021 Q1 1,027 33,382,987 2.0% 2.1% 156,658 488,092 12,000 257,467 $4.48 $9.76
Address Space Type Size SF Tenant Lease Type Submarket 1920 Whitfield Ave Industrial 40,353 CM Industrial Shredders Direct Sarasota / Manatee Florida International Tradeport Industrial 12,750 Units Mobile Storage Direct Sarasota / Manatee 1840 Whitfield Ave Industrial 12,000 Manatee Pressure Washer Direct Sarasota / Manatee Address Space Type Size Buyer Sales Price Submarket 1590 N East Avenue Industrial 70,000 Diventi, Inc. $8,276,700 $118/SF Sarasota/ Manatee 7260 15th Street E Industrial 30,560 Jefferson Riddell $5,550,000 $180/SF Sarasota/ Manatee
501 offices in 65 countries on 6 continents
$4.5B
Market Contacts:
Matt Siegel
Executive Managing Director, Market Leader Central and West Florida matt.siegel@colliers.com
Danny Rice
Executive Managing Director, Market Leader Central and West Florida danny.rice@colliers.com
Valerie Tatum Senior Research Associate Central and West Florida valerie.tatum@colliers.com
Justin Frye, CPRC Sr. GIS & Research Analyst Central and West Florida justin.frye@colliers.com
Central Florida Regional Locations:
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About Colliers
Colliers (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading diversified professional services and investment management company. With operations in 65 countries, our 18,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert real estate and investment advice to clients. For more than 28 years, our experienced leadership with significant inside ownership has delivered compound annual investment returns of approximately 20% for shareholders. With annual revenues of $4.5 billion and $98 billion of assets under management, Colliers maximizes the potential of property and real assets to accelerate the success of our clients, our investors and our people. Learn more at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn.
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