KEMPEN INSIGHT /// NOVEMBER 2017
Outlook 2018
The economic cycle is persisting Tangible growth via
real assets
British economist
John Kay: ‘Focus on stewardship’
Economy
What is hindering our productivity growth?
CONTENTS
7 Macro Outlook 2018 6 /// The economic cycle is persisting, interest rates are rising
Inflation /// The enemy of UK pension funds?
‘Humans will have to step up their game to compete with the robo-advisor’ /// Interview with British Professor John Kay
Real assets /// Investment in forestry, infrastructure and windmills
15
4 14
12 /// The ‘making of’ our cover photo, on the roof of the Kempen Amsterdam office.
Cover image: Rob van der Voort 2
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
Change your habits, create value /// Books that inspire by Floris Oliemans
A meeting of minds at London Guildhall /// Kempen Investment Seminar
Goldilocks or trade war? /// Alternative scenarios
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Turning views into value Turning views into value: that is what we stand for at Kempen. We might create value by being instrumental in a client, colleague or company coming up with a new idea or by helping to solve a tricky problem. Happily, we are
17
often given the opportunity to observe that our clients value our opinions, as was the case recently following a customer satisfaction survey which demonstrated that we receive a Net Promoter Score of 44 percent. That’s a high percentage, especially for the financial sector, and we are
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proud of it while of course being aware that we can always do better. Where the financial sector as a whole still has room for improvement is explained by the doyen of economics himself, Professor John Kay, who will also
Private equity /// Cases from the Dutch healthcare sector
20
be a guest speaker at our Outlook seminar in November. He shares his views on stewardship or servant leadership and how we ought to look at our day-to-work in a different light.
Valuation
22
/// Positive about equities
New Kempen high yield fund /// ‘Focus on quality is essential’
beyond: I am certainly no clairvoyant, but we dare to predict here that a number of interest rate hikes will be
24
implemented in the US. Joost van Leenders explains the repercussions for asset allocation. We also examine a couple of interesting asset classes in more detail in this issue: real assets (trees, land, roads and buildings),
Column by Roelof Salomons /// How will the mix of growth, inflation and monetary policy pan out?
In our Outlook we start by looking forward to 2018 and
private equity and high yield.
26
From the UK we are given insight into hedging inflation risk and why this is so important for British pension funds. In September London Guildhall was the location for a lively panel discussion on long-term investing. We enjoy
/// COLOFON
facilitating this: after all, the opinions of our clients are
November 2017 © Kempen Capital Management N.V.
Art direction/design Henrike Beukema/Dieke Hameeteman
Editorial address Kempen Capital Management N.V. to: Secretariaat P.O. Box 75666 1070 AR Amsterdam The Netherlands T 31 (0)20 348 8700 redactie@kempen.nl
Contributors Images: Philip Jenster, Getty, Mario Hooglander, Tim Matthews, Johannes Abeling, Rob van der Voort Tekst: Jos Leijen, Daniëlle Levendig, Stephanie Lewis, Anouk Suwout
Editorial board Ruth van de Belt, Lars Dijkstra, Anja Corbijn van Willenswaard, Charlotte Wilberts
Kempen Capital Management N.V. (Kempen) is licensed as a manager of various UCITS and AIFs and authorised to provide investment services and as such is subject to supervision by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) and De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB). This information should not be construed as an offer and does not provide sufficient basis for an investment decision.
Any references in this magazine to ‘Kempen’ are taken to mean Kempen Capital Management N.V.
what matter most. We look forward to hearing your opinions as well, for instance on this magazine, via the address given below.
Lars Dijkstra CIO Kempen lars.dijkstra@kempen.nl KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
3
John Kay In the lead-up to his lecture at Kempen’s Amsterdam headquarters, the editors of Insight had the privilege of asking Professor John Kay how he thinks the financial industry should really be functioning. ‘It is through promoting long-term prosperity for all that good returns are earned’
4
KEMPEN INSIGHT, NOVEMBER 2017
/// text LESA SAWAHATA image JOHN KAY
‘Both individuals and firms feel trapped’ In the past several years you have published
Both individuals and firms currently feel
Can you talk about the differences and/or
two acclaimed books: Other People’s Money,
trapped in a dysfunctional system which is
similarities between the UK finance sector
in which you outline an outdated, over-
not serving the needs either of customers or
and that of the Netherlands?
grown, internally-focused financial industry
companies. What we need to do is to effect a
‘I don’t profess any expertise, but my under-
detached from ordinary business and every-
cultural change by altering the way in which
standing is that in many ways the Dutch system
day life; and [the 2016 2nd edition of] The
both customers and regulators view the
is more like the British system than those of
Long and the Short of It in which you explain
sector – one that understands that it is
other large EU countries. Of course, the history
‘how to put your finances in the only hands
through promoting long-term prosperity for
of commercial relationships between the British
you can confidently trust – your own.’
all that good returns are earned for savers.’
and the Dutch – and as a Scot I recognise the
Thus you describe a global financial environ-
special relationship between the Scots and the
ment that is not just complex but greedy,
Purpose has been defined as ‘the difference
Dutch – goes back a very long way. More
untrustworthy and self-interested. In this type
you are striving to make in the world’.* What
recently, the Netherlands has given a large role,
of environment how does a mindset of stew-
difference should the finance industry –
like the UK, to funded defined benefit schemes,
ardship or servant leadership gain traction?
which invests ‘other people’s money’ – be
a system which comes under pressure from the
‘On the positive side, my experience is that
focusing on creating in the world?
current interest rate environment.’
most individuals and many firms involved in
‘The purpose of asset management is not to
asset management would like to be doing a
make a lot of money for people who are
You have defined four essential functions of
rather different job. One that involves a
employed in asset management and their
finance:
closer relationship with, and understanding
firms; it is to direct funds to where they will be
1 to operate a payment system;
of, investee companies; and requires trust
most effectively deployed. And to enable indi-
2 for capital allocation;
rather than transactional relationships with
viduals, firms and asset management to make
3 for wealth management;
their clients.
a lot of money by doing this job well.’
4 and for risk mitigation.
WHAT ARE YOU READING? ‘Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets is the most interesting finance book of the year; Richard Bookstaber’s The End of Theory is also well worth reading. And Nassim Taleb’s forthcoming Skin in the Game will be reliably provocative. I hope those who have not read my own Other People’s Money will rush out to buy a copy. And I always recommend Dick Rumelt’s Good Strategy – Bad Strategy for its coverage of what people in finance should be thinking about – but aren’t.’
*
By Jim Ware, author of Money, Meaning, and Mindsets: Radical Reform for the Investment Industry (Focus Consulting Group 2017).
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
5
ABOUT JOHN KAY John Kay
What would these four functions look like
2008 not only led to the greatest financial
within a finance sector that would meet the
crisis for decades, but was devoted to manag-
is one of Britain’s leading
needs of the real economy?
ing risks – badly – which had been created
economists, an influential and
‘Let me take these four functions one by one.
within the financial sector itself in the first
consistent voice that bridges
First, the payment system. This is probably the
place.
academia with practice with
area of financial services in which really radical
The risks which matter to ordinary people – of
policy. He is renowned for his
change is most visible, as a result of new tech-
natural catastrophes, illness and mortality, of
ability to express complex
nologies. Our grandchildren will find it extraor-
loss of employment and breakdown of relation-
ideas on the relationships
dinary that we used folding bits of paper to pay
ships – are and will continue to be dealt with
between economics, finance
for cups of coffee, or that we had large trans-
best by combination of private and social insti-
and business in a clear and
action balances sitting in current accounts. Ulti-
tutions.’
succinct way. An Oxford Fellow
and social implications. It is already the case
Kempen launched its FCLT-related newsroom,
at LBS, Oxford and LSE. He
that the main uses of cash in the modern
SHIFTTO.org, to help accelerate discussion
economy are in doubtfully legal activities.
and more importantly action towards the shift
Second, wealth management. Technology is
to ‘the long horizon’ in finance and invest-
going to make a lot of difference here as well.
ment. What do you think about this initiative?
I think the robo-advisor will have a large role.
‘The way we bring about the changes we need
The computer is honest, does not need to be
is by changing culture and expectations. We
paid, and leaves a clear trail of why it gave the
need to explain this to people again and again.
advice it did. And it can help people take
As Keynes wrote almost a century ago, it is the
control of their own affairs. Human advisors
power of ideas which matters in the long run,
will have to step up their game to compete.
even to practical men who ‘proclaimed them-
Third, capital allocation. Large companies –
selves exempt from any intellectual influence.’
those of a size likely to be listed – no longer
I therefore strongly support the Kempen initia-
rely on external capital. The need for expertise
tive.’
mately these changes will have wide economic
and capital allocation today is in the twin acti vities of search and stewardship – search for those new business opportunities which will become the large companies of tomorrow; stewardship of existing assets and corporations. This requires very different skills from the stock picking abilities traditionally required of the asset manager. And fourth, risk management. I think it is ironic that the risk management which the financial sector prided itself on in the 30 years before
6
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
www.shiftto.org
since 1970, John has held chairs wrote for the Financial Times for more than 20 years, earning the Senior Wincott Award for Financial Journalism in 2011 for his FT columns. His acclaimed books include The Long and the Short of It (2009) and Obliquity (2011). His most recent book, Other People’s Money (2015), was chosen as book of the year by The Economist, FT, and Bloomberg and was shortlisted for the Orwell Prize for Political Writing.
2018 Macro Outlook
Reason for optimism Investor sentiment has improved sharply compared to last year.
Expansionary phases often end as a result of the actions of central
Several general elections have been held in Europe but they fizzled
banks, due to the end of the credit cycle or a combination of the two.
out without a bang, and although President Trump regularly causes
Although the overcapacity in the US economy is decreasing rapidly,
brief periods of volatility on the equity markets his America First
inflationary pressure remains low. We expect inflation to pick up,
policy has so far borne little fruit. Moreover, we have seen a spurt in
partly due to higher wage growth, but this is happening so slowly
global economic growth.
that the Fed (the US system of central banks) will not have to slam on
The US expansionary phase has already lasted for the past eight
the brakes just yet.
years and we are unlikely to see the end of the cycle next year.
At Kempen, we believe that the Fed will gradually start to reduce the
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
7
The Shanghai World Financial Center
Although the acceleration in growth is now behind us, investment strategist Ruth van de Belt expects the global economy to continue to grow over the coming year. For many central banks, the time has come to move away gradually from expansionary policies.
size of its balance sheet and implement two to three interest rate hikes
the fall, such as strong exports (caused by the weak pound) and
next year. These are considerably more interest rate increases than the
robust external demand, a temporary halt to budgetary tightening
financial markets are currently pricing in. In spite of the predicted interest
and an expansionary monetary policy.
rate increases, we expect policy interest rates to remain lower than the neutral interest rate: the interest rate level which neither stimulates nor curbs the economy. In our view, the credit cycle is unlikely to come to an end next year, although credit quality will deteriorate slightly more.
Asia hitches a ride on China’s growth
Economic growth is likely to persist in Japan. The country is profiting
Fears of deflation dissipated in eurozone
from the upturn in global trade and domestic spending is also contributing more. Although the economy is growing at above trend, the inflation target of 2 percent will remain out of reach for the time being. The
The eurozone economy is performing increasingly well. Growth is up
Japanese central bank is expected to pursue the most expansionary
sharply and more and more countries are contributing to this growth.
monetary policy of all the major banks next year as well.
Consumers and manufactures therefore have every reason to be optimis-
Growth is slowing very gradually in China. The government is orches-
tic. Inflation also remains low in the eurozone. Given the overcapacity in
trating a soft landing by alternating between stimulatory and tight-
the economy and the appreciation of the euro, we anticipate that this will
ening measures. We are not worried about a hard landing triggered
remain the case.
by the debt crisis. Although the amount of debt continues to grow, the
President Trump’s America First policy has so far borne little fruit.
Yet we do expect the European Central Bank to move away gradually
vast majority is financed in China. Domestic savings levels are high
from its expansionary policies. Not only are the limits imposed on the
and capital markets underdeveloped, leading to savings chiefly
purchasing programmes coming ever closer, fears of deflation have also
being held in the shape of deposits. The liquidity will also remain in
dissipated. The purchasing programmes will be scaled back to zero over
China due to capital controls. The government’s far-reaching control
the next year. However, an initial interest rate increase is unlikely. The
of the financial sector and major debtors (state companies) implies
credit cycle will not yet come to an end thanks to the extremely low
that debt restructuring can occur gradually. The rest of Asia (exclud-
policy interest rates.
ing Japan) is hitching a ride on the back of Chinese and global growth. Moreover, inflation is under control, enabling central banks
UK groaning under Brexit
to introduce monetary stimulation if necessary. Emerging markets are also succeeding in profiting from this.
The outlook for the UK is less positive. As a result of the vote in favour of Brexit, we foresee a sharp slowdown in growth. Brexit is expected to curb consumer spending and investment. The high inflation will restrict pur-
Ruth van de Belt
chasing power, while companies may delay investments due to the high
Investment Strategist
level of uncertainty. At the same time, there are factors that will soften
ruth.vandebelt@kempen.nl
8
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
/// tekst XXXXX XXXXX foto XXX XXXXXXXXXXX
Ageing population versus immigration policy
Is the balance between expected risk and expected return still as good as it can be? Potential growth and inflation expectations are very important to expected returns. The former has not changed in 2017, while we have adjusted inflation expectations for Asia downwards: at Kempen we re-examine our strategic asset allocation each year.
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
9
An ever smaller portion of the population is in the productive phase of their lives The growth in labour productivity and the
to structural factors. In the West,
actual labour supply are the main influenc-
productivity growth is being hin-
ing factors in our estimate of potential
dered by increasingly difficulties
growth. The potential for growth is the
in raising the workforce’s average
same as it was last year. In the West,
level of education any higher.
growth of the actual labour supply is being
Reforms and regulation of the
restricted by the lower numbers of young
financial sector are also playing a
people joining the workforce and by the
part here. This has adversely
ageing population. An ever smaller portion
affected the ability of banks to
of the population is in the productive phase
issue loans.
of their lives. There is even shrinkage in
There is still room to raise the
Japan and the eurozone.
level of education in emerging
The fact that the actual labour supply in
markets, but productivity growth
the US and UK is still growing slightly is
is lower than it was a few decades
chiefly due to immigration. Although (part
ago. The productivity gap with the
of) the population in both countries has
West is also closing.
voted in favour of restricting immigration, we believe it is too soon to adjust our forecasts. Over the past few months, new US President Donald Trump has faced major hurdles in
Uncertainty in Japan
Compared to last year, there is greater uncertainty about inflation
implementing his hard-line immigration policies. It remains to be seen
expectations in Japan. In spite of an extremely expansionary monetary
how much of the UK’s wish to curb immigration will be intact in the
policy, Japanese inflation and inflation expectations remain low. Yet
wake of the divorce negotiations with the European Union.
the Japanese central bank is convinced that inflation expectations will
Asia ex Japan and emerging markets are still experiencing growth in
become embedded around the inflation target of 2 percent. As a result,
the labour supply. Although ageing populations will start to play a
there is now a lower risk of additional monetary measures.
greater role in Asia ex Japan, emerging markets will be much less
The downward adjustment for Asia ex
affected by this.
Japan is chiefly due to the persisting low inflationary pressure coming out
Higher level of education?
of China and South Korea. This has
cyclical recovery has finally brought an end to the many years of
two countries to adjust their infla-
decline. Nevertheless, productivity growth is likely to remain low due
tion targets downwards.
3-4%
% 4 31⁄2
1
2-3%
1⁄2 0
United States
United Kingdom
Euro area
Real potential growth
10
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
-1⁄4 -3⁄4%
1-2% 1⁄4 -11⁄4%
11⁄2
1-3%
11⁄2-21⁄2%
13⁄4 -21⁄4%
11⁄2-21⁄2%
2
13⁄4 -21⁄4%
3 21⁄2
3-4%
prompted the central banks of the
3-4%
Our forecasts for labour productivity growth remain unchanged. The
Japan
Inflation
Azia ex Japan
Emerging markets Source: Kempen Date: oktober 2017
Ruth van de Belt Investment Strategist ruth.vandebelt@kempen.nl
More value please! Efficient markets, accounting and portfolio theory are all widely taught at university, yet value investing barely gets a mention. This despite the success of many billionaire practitioners including Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman and Michael Price. While this book – Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond – does not promise to turn you into a billionaire overnight, it does give you a sound framework to analyse and value companies. The author of the book, Bruce Greenwald is the successor of Benjamin Graham and teaches value investing at the Columbia business school. Within our investment team we widely use the earnings power value model introduced in this book and it is our preferred valuation tool. This book comes highly recommended. Title:
Value Investing - From Graham to Buffett and Beyond
Books that inspire TURNING VIEWS INTO VALUE
Author: Bruce Greenwald ISBN-13: 978-0471463399
Rewire your brain Exercise more, drink less or simply be nicer to other people are frequent new year’s resolutions that are made and failed to keep. The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business discusses how to change both your own (harmful) habits as well as those of your organization. By repeatedly incentivizing wanted behaviour you rewire your brain and the habit becomes ingrained. The book uses many examples such as the visualization habits
Floris Oliemans is Portfolio Manager with
used by Michael Phelps to become the most successful Olympian of all time.
the Kempen Dividend Team. As he is an
You might not want to be an Olympian, but you may want to reduce the
ardent reader, we asked him to share which
number of cookies you eat daily: this book is an entertaining and accessible
books are on his bedside table.
way to achieve that.
You can also follow Floris on Twitter: @FlorisOliemans
Title:
The Power of Habit - Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business
Authorr: Charles Duhigg ISBN-13: 9780812981605
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
11
/// photo SHUTTERSTOCK
THE INFLUENCE OF INFLATION ON UK PENSION SCHEMES A defined benefit pension scheme’s liabilities are
scheme funding) they will typically never reduce
the Brexit referendum last year has pushed
linked to inflation and life expectancy. As these
benefits even if inflation is below 0 percent on an
inflation higher but still someway from the caps
variables increase the amount of money in cash
RPI (Retail Price Index) basis. We recognize here
most schemes have in place. Schemes had
terms that needs to be paid out in the future also
that there has been a ‘trend’ to move the
previously benefited from very low inflation that
increases. Current actuarial practice is then to
measure of inflation for many schemes from RPI
for most of 2015 was below 1.5 percent.
discount these cashflows using a rate dependent
to CPI (Consumer Price Index). Other things being
on gilt yields. As yields fall the net present value
equal, as CPI is typically lower than RPI this has
Increasing prices
of the cashflows increases.
a benefit to the funding status of a scheme.
We have so far concentrated on the impact inflation has on a schemes liabilities, inflation
It is therefore important for sponsors and trustees to have a thorough understanding of the
Liabilities
also impacts a schemes’ assets. Equity valua-
impact inflation can have on a scheme. Even
One of the worst things that can happen to a
tions typically increase as inflation rises. The
small differences in inflation, compounded over
pension fund in terms of solvency is deflation.
cause of inflation is increasing prices, as com-
long periods can cause large differences in total
Deflation, will typically decrease corporate
panies increase prices they can increase earn-
cashflows. If we assume stable inflation to be
earnings, decrease equity prices and decrease
ings and increase dividends thus resulting in
anywhere in the Bank of England (BoE)’s target
gilt yields. However the scheme is unable to
increasing valuations. The relationship is not
range of 1-3 percent this can still cause massive
decrease its liabilities – due to the floor on
perfect, and can break down at very high
changes in the amount of benefits to be paid.
inflationary increases promised to members. By
levels of inflation, but equities, nonetheless,
Outside of these ranges the impact can be more
contrast, very high inflation will have the oppo-
offer some protection against inflation.
complex and somewhat unexpected.
site effect with an increase in company earn-
Conventional government and corporate bonds
A typical schemes’ liabilities do not respond to
ings, equity prices and bond yields – the
however decrease in value as inflation
high or very low inflation in the same way they
scheme however will not suffer a large increase
increases. These instruments pay a fixed
do to moderate inflation. Most schemes set a cap
in liabilities due to the cap on inflation dis-
amount of cash every year and return a fixed
on the extent to which they will protect against
cussed earlier.
amount of capital at maturity. If inflation
inflation. For example, they will not inflate bene-
The inflationary environment at the moment has
increases unexpectedly the value of these
fits by more than 5 percent on an RPI basis. On
not been particularly favorable to pension
cashflows will be reduced and the price of the
the downside however (in terms of impact on
schemes. The fall in sterling we have seen since
bonds will fall to compensate.
12
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
/// tekst XXXXX XXXXX foto XXX XXXXXXXXXXX
As we have alluded to, the impact of inflation
scheme and trustees need to have an under-
on schemes can be severe and volatile infla-
standing of how changes in inflation can impact
tion can cause dramatic changes in funding
their funding position. Whilst the impact of infla-
levels creating uncertainty both for sponsors
tion can have a significant impact on pension
and trustees. The best way to mitigate this
schemes there are ways this can be mitigated,
risk is to have an allocation to investment
notably by allocating to assets whose cashflows
instruments whose cashflows are positively
are directly linked to inflation.
Kempen UK clients consist of defined benefit pension schemes, the underlying liabilities of which are linked to inflation. Even small differences in inflation, compounded over long periods can cause large differences in total cashflows.
impacted by inflation. Typically this would be
Despite the Bank of England’s inflation target,
index-linked government or corporate bonds. As inflation increases the cash value of
there remains significant uncertainty around infla-
coupons and maturity payments is increased
tion, which can cause massive changes in the
in-line with inflation, thus providing a way of mitigating against the increase in liability
amount of benefits to be paid. So whilst stable
values caused by inflation. Alternatively
inflation may reduce uncertainty, it does not
schemes can use derivatives whose value is also linked to changes in the value of infla-
mean schemes no longer need to be worried
tion. On the other hand alternative asset
about their inflation risks. In addition to that, infla-
classes, such as infrastructure, direct lending
tion also impacts a scheme through its assets,
and real-estate generate inflation-linked cash flows helping schemes to protect against
whether these are inflation-linked or not, by
inflation, so an allocation to these provides at
increasing or decreasing their value. Therefore,
least a partial hedge against inflation.
Mitigate impact In conclusion inflation has a critical impact on both the assets and liabilities of a pension
hedging the inflation risk will continue to be a hot Maya Beyhan Investment Strategist maya.beyhan@kempen.co.uk
topic for Kempen UK clients to be able to achieve good funding levels.
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
13
/// illustration SHUTTERSTOCK
Growth you can
Real assets are expected to play a key role in the growth of prosperity and the expected growth in the global population. Yet what are real assets, other than an umbrella term for all kinds of concrete, tangible investments that could provide the answer to social and economic challenges? 14
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
reach out and touch What are real assets? Agricultural land, ports, container ships, warehouses and windmills: this is just a selection from the asset class known as real assets. Yet what are real assets, other than an umbrella term for concrete, tangible investments that could provide the answer to major social and economic challenges? The main characteristics of real assets are: \\\ I ndex-linked assets at a time when money printing presses are working overtime, real assets provide protection against the potential consequences of the current monetary experiment known as quantitative easing; \\\ An identifiable cashflow profile rent, leases and government concessions provide stable, regulated or contracted income; \\\ A real, inflation-linked return concessions and contracts generally include an explicit inflation clause; If you follow the daily news you know that the
There are global concerns about sufficient
new Dutch government has a great deal of
food, housing, social provisions and transport:
\\\ Low correlation to other asset classes
work to do: there is a shortage of starter and
all basic necessities of life. The United Nations *
and even within the asset class itself
retirement homes, rail passengers have to
has calculated that food production needs to
logistics centres are sensitive to the
squeeze themselves into overfull trains and
increase by 70 percent up to 2050 in order to
local economy and vacancy levels,
schools buildings are in poor condition. On a
be able to feed everyone on the planet. In the
agriculture and forestry are sensitive
larger, global scale, we are seeing more prob-
meantime, we are facing soil erosion, water
to the weather, the climate and food
lems caused by an accelerated growth in the
shortages and global warming.
trends, while wind farms (of course)
world’s population, our growth in prosperity,
In order to deal with all this, in Europe we need
depend on the wind.
demographic trends and long-term underin-
to invest â‚Ź 1.5 to â‚Ź 2 trillion in new infrastruc-
vestment.
ture up to 2020. Only then can we meet revised
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
15
sustainability criteria and keep up with techno-
meet customer demand, for instance. In addi-
Our conclusion
logical trends, according to the calculations of
tion to growing crops, these can be adjusted
Real assets are expected to play a key role in
the European Commission**. Many government
and production, transport or marketing can be
the growth of prosperity and the expected
leaders are throwing enormous figures about:
provided. Water or waste-processing compa-
growth of the global population. In order to keep
the European Commission’s 2020 Juncker Plan
nies earn bonuses from quality improvements.
pace to some extent, investment in infrastruc-
involving € 0.5 trillion is a modest version in
Wind farms can increase the span of the tur-
ture, energy, forestry and agriculture will have
comparison. Donald Trump’s $ 1 biljoen infra-
bines and in doing so increase the return.
to increase by a disproportionate amount.
structure plan sounds much more impressive,
Financial optimisation has also been a major
According to a report published by McKinsey***,
not to mention Beijing’s $ 8 trillion One Belt,
driver of return, but in our view no more can be
75 percent of the infrastructure we will have in
One Road initiative to restore the Silk Route
derived from this because of the persisting low
2050 still has to be built. In order to be able to
through central Asia.
interest rates.
meet social criteria, investment is required in new forests, new infrastructure and new agri-
Productivity boost required
Fragmentation creates opportunities
cultural techniques.
Yet these bids for immortality dreamed up by
Consolidation will be an interesting driver of
Pension funds and other investors have been
nationalist politicians will not succeed in effect-
return in future. Ownership of real assets, such
convinced of the advantages of investing in
ing the required transition alone. A productivity
as land and buildings, is often fragmented. This
real assets for the past ten years, or have
boost is needed to meet demand and to make
has traditionally been the case in agriculture.
already profited from sound results during the
infrastructure sustainable. This will take politi-
The Netherlands is leading the way in effi-
last one to five years. Positive drivers of return,
cal will, technology and capital.
ciency, but many of our farmers have reached
such as operational optimisation and consoli-
This capital needs to be put to use efficiently.
retirement age and the next generation is
dation, will continue to play as important a role
Take the food production chain: institutional
leaving the sector as they cannot achieve the
as ever. Yet we believe that the positive feed-
capital could be used to expand agricultural
required increase in scale alone.
back loop from these investments on the main
companies and apply improved irrigation and
We are also seeing fragmentation caused by
economic and social challenges continues to
fertilisation techniques on a larger scale. The
trends in new, sustainable sources of energy,
be underrepresented in investment literature.
resulting larger quantities of food would be
such as biogas, district heating, hydropower
We believe that interest in this investment
transported in bulk by companies using more
and shale gas. The growth in the alternative
theme will only grow.
modern and more efficient ships. In turn, con-
energy sector and the opportunities for compa-
tractors could build modern ports and new
nies to combine and professionalise infrastruc-
logistics centres in response to the increase in
tural assets, real estate and farms creates
agricultural scale. Offshore wind farms could
opportunities for generating additional return.
be constructed to allow products to be cooled
Major institutional investors that have invested
and retained for longer.
in agricultural land, forestry and infrastructure
We do not include commodities or infla-
for years are happy to acquire these improved,
tion-linked financial instruments in our defini-
combined and consequently larger-scale
tion, only tangible assets with a stable, attrac-
assets and are prepared to pay a premium.
tive and index-linked return.
However, investors do need to realise that
This return may be earned by meeting con-
investment in real assets has a long-term nature.
tracted or regulated obligations. Yet the icing
In some cases, it can take years for cashflows to
on the cake often comprises operational pro-
get going properly. In certain types of agricul-
Richard Jacobs
ductivity improvements and developments. An
ture, plants or trees only reach their production
Co-head private markets
agricultural company can adjust its services to
potential after three to five years.
* http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=46647#.WeYQKWiGNaR ** Investment Plan for Europe: the Juncker Plan, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/priorities/jobs-growth-and-investment/investment-plan-europe-juncker-plan_en *** Infrastructure productivity: How to save $1 trillion a year by McKinsey, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/infrastructure-productivity
16
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
richard.jacobs@kempen.nl
/// text ANJA CORBIJN image TIM MATTHEWS
A meeting of minds In London Guildhall Pension Fund trustees and investors gathered for the Kempen annual Investment Seminar and dinner. There were presentations on various investment topics, followed by a panel discussion on ‘Focusing Capital on the Long Term’ with FCLT GLobal’s CEO Sarah Williamson, Lars Dijkstra, CIO of Kempen, renowned economist and professor John Kay and Stuart Doole, Global Head of New Product Development Index Research, MSCI. The participants provided valuable insights on cultural and regulatory differences in the UK, the Netherlands and the United States. As a finale dinner was served in the crypts: a historic and beautifully decorated location.
LARS DIJKSTRA,
JOHN KAY,
SARAH WILLIAMSON,
STUART DOOLE,
‘At Kempen we think corporate
‘I don’t agree that capital
‘People in the financial sector
‘We see an aspirational effect
culture is actually the only
markets are about capital allo-
feel short-term pressure and it
on corporates to do better than
Unique Selling Point for asset
cation. This used to be true.
doesn’t improve their decision
their peers, in order to be
managers.’
Business isn’t very capital inten-
making.’
included in a specific bench-
KEMPEN:
ECONOMIST:
sive and most of the capital isn’t
FCLT GLOBAL:
MSCI:
mark.’
owned by the companies.’
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
17
WILL IT BE
Goldilocks OR A
As economic growth and inflation are the most relevant variables for the financial markets, this year we have analysed the following four combinations of growth and inflation: low inflation/high growth, high inflation/high growth, high inflation/low growth and low inflation/low growth.
Low inflation / high growth
High inflation / high growth
In this scenario we assume that intelligent automation, a combination of
In this scenario, we assume that the eurozone will finally implement
artificial intelligence and automation, really takes off. This enables com-
far-reaching institutional and structural reforms. Tackling rigidity on
panies to automate complex, non-routine tasks that require flexibility
labour and product markets will lead to higher potential for growth.
and adaptability. Traditional production factors, such as capital and
Not only will the supply of capital and labour increase, it will also be
labour, can then be put to more efficient use. This increases productivity
possible to use these production factors more efficiently. Higher poten-
growth and leads to higher potential for growth. We do not believe that
tial for growth implies that it will take longer for an economy to reach
intelligent automation will result in mass unemployment. However, the
its production limits and to fuel inflation. Yet inflation will be higher in
negotiating power of employees will decrease, which will restrict wage
this scenario. This is caused by a combination of large-scale govern-
pressure. Moreover, goods and services will become cheaper. Inflation
ment investment and a central bank that stays behind the inflation
will consequently remain low.
curve.
GOLDILOCKS
REFORMS IN THE EUROZONE
Each year at Kempen we draw up a picture of what might happen over the next ten years. Although we have a great deal of confidence in our basic scenario, it is always sensible to look at other potential scenarios as well. To this end, we examine a number of alternative scenarios each year.
18
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
/// text RUTH VAN DE BELT photo SHUTTERSTOCK / UNSPLASH
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
TRADE WAR?
High inflation / low growth
Low inflation / low growth
This scenario could occur if, for instance, US President Trump keeps his
In this scenario, we assume a growing global imbalance between savings
election promises. If the US closes its borders to immigrant workers,
and investments. Savings will continue to increase. The growing imbal-
the actual labour supply will barely increase. At the same time, the
ance will cause a further fall in the neutral interest rate, i.e. the real
introduction of trade tariffs will unleash a global trade war. Trade bar-
interest rate that ensures that savings are equal to investments at a
riers will reduce competition. This will not only have an adverse effect
global level. This interest rate will decrease to such a low level that it
on productivity growth (there is less pressure to work more efficiently),
will become impossible for central banks to push down market interest
but also on inflation. After all, non-efficient companies usually apply
rates to the same level. As a result, they will be unable to give the
higher prices than efficient ones, as they also have higher costs. Fur-
economy the boost it needs and in doing so fuel inflation. ď Ž
STAGFLATION
SECULAR STAGNATION
thermore, central banks will continue to pursue expansionary monetary policies in order to stimulate growth.
Ruth van de Belt Investment Strategist ruth.vandebelt@kempen.nl
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
19
Home-grown private equity two fine examples According to Sven Smeets, Co-head of private markets, and Edzard Potgieser, Director of private markets, two highlights from the European healthcare sector demonstrate that private equity investments close to home can be financially attractive and contribute to innovation and sustainability.
Kempen Capital Management N.V. (‘Kempen’) currently does not hold shares in the mentioned companies. The views expressed in this document may be subject to change at any given time, without prior notice. Kempen has no obligation to update the contents of this document. As asset manager Kempen may have investments, generally for the benefit of third parties, in financial instruments mentioned in this document and it may at any time decide to execute buy or sell transactions in these financial instruments. The information in this document is solely for your information. This document should not be considered to constitute an investment recommendation and it is not intended as an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument mentioned in this document. This document is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The views expressed herein are our current views as of the date appearing on this document. This document has been produced independently of the companies and the views contained herein are entirely those of Kempen.
20
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
This article looks at the venture capital market,
acquisition price will only be paid once the
an estimated 600,000 people who suffer from
more specifically the healthcare sector. Along-
company earns a specified minimum result or
some form of sleep apnea, this tool could
side technology, this is the most important
revenue, Ed.]. The story of Dezima Pharma is a
potentially significantly improve the quality of
sector in the venture capital market. Investors
fine example of how a strong combination of
life of a large group of people.
in venture capital in fact contribute directly to
private equity and academic expertise can lead
innovation in their own backyard. This is pre-
to success.
cisely why government bodies such as the UK’s Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) and the
NightBalance
Investors go for sustainable
The above examples demonstrate that invest-
Another example of a Dutch venture capital
ment in healthcare can match up well with the
participants in this segment.
investment geared more to medical technology
sustainability criteria increasingly applied by
We are seeing increasingly intensive coopera-
is NightBalance. This company was set up in
investors. After all, the result of such invest-
tion between private investors and universities
2009 out of YES!Delft, the start-up incubator at
ment is immediately visible and in addition to
in the healthcare sector. This enables effective
TU Delft (Dutch university of technology). A
innovation it contributes positively to the length
implementation of the best academic ideas.
number of Dutch venture capitalists later also
and quality of life of a group of patients.
There is a pressing need for innovation: the
joined the company.
Today’s private equity market has a relatively
population in Europe is ageing. Older people
NightBalance focuses on developing a tool for
large amount of available capital, which is
want to live independently for longer and this
people who suffer from sleep apnea. The tech-
increasing competition for investments. This is
requires innovative solutions. This might
nology triggers vibrations when someone who
chiefly taking place at the upper end of the
include curing diseases by developing new
suffers from apnea adopts an incorrect position
market, in large buy-outs. We believe that
drugs, but also medical technology aimed at a
in their sleep (i.e. they start sleeping on their
smaller, more local specialist private equity
better quality of life. Some investments have
back). The signal alerts the person that they
managers with an extensive network currently
the potential to cut healthcare costs, as for
need to return to the correct position. In doing
offer more attractive return prospects. Across
instance they enable people to live in their own
so, people learn to adjust their sleeping posi-
Europe we can identify interesting managers
homes for longer.
tion without affecting their natural sleeping
that have the potential to earn attractive
pattern. As in the Netherlands alone there are
returns in the current market climate.
European Investment Bank (EIB) are very active
Dezima Pharma
A recent and highly-successful example of Dutch venture capital investment is that of Dezima Pharma. The company was founded in 2012 by Professor John Kastelein, who is attached to the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam. Together with specialist venture capitalists, Kastelein acquired the rights in Japan to develop a drug that reduces cholesterol. The Japanese company had shelved work on it for an unspecified period. It involves a new generation of cholesterol-reducing drugs, which cuts the risk of heart attacks among people suffering from heart conditions. Following successful drug trials, in 2015 Dezima Pharma was sold to US pharmaceutical company Amgen. The total acquisition price could rise as high as €1.3 billion, although this is dependent on reaching a number of milestones [the remainder of the Sven Smeets
Edzard Potgieser
Co-head private markets
Director private markets
sven.smeets@kempen.nl
edzard.potgieser@kempen.nl
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
21
Where should the fixed-income investor go? Are investors still rewarded for taking risks? We think so. But choices have to be made. In last year’s long-term yield expectations, we
much has changed. Aging and low growth in
outlined a moderate image. Due to high valua-
labor productivity keep potential growth low.
tions, yield expectations were low. Stock
This low growth and low inflation will keep a
Joost van Leenders
markets were not affected by this in the past
downward effect on interest rates. But we do
Investment Strategist
year. In local currency, American stocks over
expect the interest rate to rise. That has been
joost.vanleenders@kempen.nl
the past twelve months recorded a total return
predicted by many in recent years, so what’s
of more than 15 percent, European stocks 13
different now? First, the global economy has
percent, and emerging markets shares up to 23
grown and in some countries, such as the
percent (after lagging performance in previous
United States, Japan and perhaps China, the
years). Bond yields were a lot less satisfying
capacity limits are within sight. Second, central
due to a slightly raised interest rate on
banks in the United States and the eurozone
balance. Government bond yields were even
will gradually reduce their incentive policies.
slightly negative. Investors who looked for
This can, especially in the short run, cause
more risks were barely rewarded with invest-
upward pressure on interest rates, which
ment-grade corporate bonds, while high-yield-
means that they rise faster than markets expect
ing corporate bonds still showed good returns;
at the moment.
almost 10 percent in the United States and
In the long run, low growth and inflation are
8 percent in the eurozone.*
especially important. Since the starting point of interest rates is now higher than last year, this
22
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
GROWTH REMAINS LOW, JUST LIKE THE INTEREST RATE
means that our expected returns on govern-
Regarding our assumptions, again nothing
zone are slightly more positive than last year.
ment bonds in the United States and the euro-
EXPECTED VS. REQUIRED RETURN 12%
Expected return
10 8
EM EQUITY
6 4
US TREASURIES
2 0
EU EQUITY
EMU BOND 2
3
UK EQUITY
GBP CREDITS JAPAN EQUITY EUR CREDITS US EQUITY EUR GILLS EUR HIGH YIELD
4
5
6
7
Required return
8
9
10
11%
Source: Kempen Capital Management - 2017
For corporate bonds we foresee marginally
This can be seen in our yield expectations as
offer higher returns than fixed income.
higher returns than last year, due to the slightly
they have increased further. As with bonds,
For company shares we prefer Europe and
more positive image for government bonds.
they are below the level we find reasonable in
emerging markets to the United States. The
Slightly lower interest rate increases in the
the long run. However, we don’t advise inves-
United States are further along in the economic
long term are therefore positive. But taking risk
tors to stay out of stock in the short term. The
cycle and profit margins are higher: this limits
in this investment category is only moderately
expected returns are still higher than on fixed
possibilities for profit growth. On top of that,
rewarded. Our expected returns for high-yield-
income. In our view, the investment climate is
American shares are relatively more expensive
ing corporate bonds are lower than last year.
also not negative for stocks. There is economic
compared to those from the other two regions.
This is because risk premiums have fallen
growth and profit growth and margins can
sharply. There seems to be little room for
further improve in Europe and in emerging
MAKING CHOICES
further decline.
markets. Furthermore, interest rates and infla-
Overall, our expected returns are low. For
So where should the fixed-income investor go?
tion remain low in historical terms. So even if
bonds, slightly less than last year, but for
From the perspective of expected return, we
valuations gradually normalize, we expect
stocks even lower. Will investors be rewarded
find structured credit attractive. Structured
profit growth can support a further increase in
for taking risk at all? We think so. To give an
credit has a high credit storage compared to
stocks.
example: the dividend yield on European
credit quality and a limited interest rate sensi-
Stock exchanges have been rising for a consid-
stocks excluding the United Kingdom is around
tivity. The limited liquidity in this investment
erable amount of time without any significant
3 percent, while German government bonds
category contributes to the risk premium, so
correction. A correction will undoubtedly come
yield at the most 0.5 percent return. Investors
naturally investors must assess whether this
at a certain time, but a long-term underper-
must make choices. We have already men-
fits the objectives of the portfolio.
formance of stocks needs more: a recession,
tioned our preference for structured credit and
downward pressure on profit margins or
equity in Europe and emerging markets. In
STOCKS: HIGH VALUATION
excesses in corporate investment or lending.
addition, we find real estate attractively priced.
Over the last twelve months, profit increases
These aren’t things we expect in the short term.
And this investment category offers some pro-
have not been able to track the stock rally.
In the long run, we are looking through such
tection, in case inflation unexpectedly runs
Thus, valuations of stocks have deteriorated.
cycles and expect to see that stocks will also
higher than we’ve anticipated on.
*
These are local currency returns on September 22, 2017. Due to the US dollar depreciation against the euro, dollar yields are converted to euros almost 7 percent lower.
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
23
/// by JOS LEIJEN visual GETTY
Kempen (Lux) Euro High Yield Fund
‘We focus on risk control’
Fallen and rising The behaviour of traditional investors and rating agencies creates an imbalance in the market for debt securities, especially in the highest segment of the high yield market. Specialists Rik den Hartog and Luuk Cummins tell us about the new Kempen investment fund that focuses on this segment of the credit market.
The expected return on credits is more or less determined by two factors, Den Hartog explains: the interest rate and a spread as a reflection of the creditworthiness of a company. This is known as the credit spread. Rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s occupy an important position in the credit market as they rate the creditworthiness of companies. To do so, they apply a rating that is split into investment grade (IG), i.e. the most creditworthy companies, and high yield (HY). ‘The new investment fund focuses on credits with a BB rating and subordinated bonds,’ Den Hartog says. ‘This is the highest class within high yield and is close to investment grade. What makes these bonds interesting is the fact that the risk/return ratio is currently very attractive. Companies in this segment enjoy a robust corporate profile combined with high
24
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
angels stars yield spreads. This results in a relatively high
There are also companies with a structural BB
Sharpe ratio (extra return for the additional risk) with
rating. As an example, Den Hartog takes packaging
a low downside risk.’
company Ball, a global market leader in the produc-
Fallen angels, rising stars
tion of cans for the beverages sector. ‘At its core it is a sound company that enjoys stable revenue and
Part of the attractiveness of the BB segment lies in
cashflows. It operates with a slightly higher amount
the fact that many investors distinguish rigidly
of debt on its balance sheet as a result of acquisi-
between investment grade and high yield. If a
tions, but in our eyes it is a creditworthy company.’
company is downgraded by the rating agencies from BBB (IG) to BB (HY), they sell these bonds. ‘You can then often buy these so-called fallen angels at
An eye for sustainability
ESG (environment, social and governance) criteria
a good price,’ Cummins explains.
are taken into account when selecting the bonds.
‘In addition there are the bonds of companies that
‘On the one hand this is because we always take
are working hard to earn a higher rating, the rising
these criteria in principle into account, but also
stars. We buy these bonds at a favourable time and
because a poor performance in ESG terms can have
when the company performs better the bonds rise in
an impact on the company’s creditworthiness,’
value. It is the BB segment that profits most from
Cummins continues. ‘If we think something ought to
this. We believe that this segment is inefficiently
be done differently, we seek contact with the
priced and that the value is not always an accurate
company. If we observe little progress, this has con-
reflection of the credit risk.’
sequences for our decision to invest in the company.’
Kempen has a highly-experienced credit team that
The Kempen (Lux) Euro High Yield Fund may appeal
has operated in this market since 2008. ‘We believe
to investors who seek a sound return at a relatively
that our process is especially suited to this segment,’
low level of risk. ‘Investors who already invest in
Den Hartog confirms. In his opinion, this is due to the
high yield can shift to a lower risk profile without
team’s alpha-by-control approach: ‘We focus on
relinquishing much return in the process,’ Den
risk control. We diversify our investments, make
Hartog asserts. ‘Investors who currently favour
many smaller bets. This limits downside risk. In
investment grade can earn a higher return via our
addition, we put a huge amount of energy into
fund without investing in the riskiest companies.
forming our own opinion on companies, into identi-
However, always take the total risk exposure of your
fying discrepancies between creditworthiness and
portfolio into account. Focus on quality is essential,
credit spreads.’
especially at this stage of the credit cycle.’
Rik den Hartog, Senior Portfolio Manager
Luuk Cummins, Portfolio Manager Disclaimer Kempen (Lux) Euro High Yield Fund (the “Sub-Fund”) is a sub-fund of Kempen International Funds SICAV (the “Fund”), domiciled in Luxembourg. This Fund is authorised in Luxembourg and is regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. Kempen Capital Management N.V. (Kempen) is the management company of the Fund. Kempen is authorised as management company and regulated by The Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. The information in this document provides insufficient information for an investment decision. Please read the Key Investor Document and the prospectus. These documents as well as annual report, semi-annual report and the articles of incorporation of the Fund are available free of charge at the registered office of the Fund located at 6C, route de Trèves, L-2633 Senningerberg, Luxembourg and on the website of Kempen (www.kempen.com). The Sub-Fund is registered for offering in a limited number of countries. The countries where the Sub-Fund is registered can be found on the website. The value of your investment may fluctuate. Past performance provides no guarantee for the future.
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
25
Perverse monetary stimulation in a bizarre scenario After years of economic slump, growth is
now behind us, but in my opinion equities
Dutch and German bond yields to fall.
now at above trend around the world, con-
will continue to outperform bonds in 2018.
A bizarre scenario? Possibly. Yet it was
cerns about deflation have finally dissi-
Central banks will probably continue to be
discussed recently at a pension fund
pated and calls for interest rate increases
cautious about raising interest rates, as
investment committee meeting I
are becoming ever louder. Unconventional
inflation is not yet a major issue. As long as
attended ...
monetary policy is no longer needed.
interest rates remain low, lending will not
I assume that the basic scenario will occur,
The question investors need to answer is
be squeezed. Yet companies will want to
but it is worth remembering that no-one
how the mix of growth, inflation and mon-
profit from the low interest rates and
knew what we were starting with quantita-
etary policy will pan out. I would like to
increase their levels of leverage. As long
tive easing and no-one knows for certain
present you with two scenarios. Firstly the basic scenario, in which normalisation occurs as expected. The other scenario is one in which the perverse monetary stimulation of the past few years comes back like a boomerang.
26
Will this be the
how it will end. ď Ž
longest economic cycle in history?
Elsewhere in this magazine it is suggested
as bond investors do not apply the brakes
that this economic cycle could well be the
to credit growth, the engine will continue
longest in history. As the typical late-cycli-
to function.
cal aspects have still not materialised,
I promised you an alternative scenario as
there is as yet no reason to make the
well. Just imagine: financial markets fail to
switch from equities to bonds. Valuations
work properly as a discount engine. To
have been cranked up, but as long as
overstate the case somewhat, current
there remains a wide gap between the
equity prices are simply a reflection of the
return on capital (margins) and the cost of
low interest rates and not of an upturn in
capital (interest rates), it is still worth
future growth. This would mean that the
taking a risk. There will come a point
central banks’ unconventional policies
when it is no longer worth the risk, but this
have severed the normal link between
is unlikely to be in 2018. The term struc-
deteriorating balance sheets and rising
Roelof Salomons
ture has not yet become inverted, nor are
credit costs. Peripheral EU countries have
Chief Strategist at Kempen
debt positions excessive.
simply been propped up by the European
and Professor of Investment Theory &
A neutral risk attitude would seem the most
Central Bank. In this case, halting the
Asset Management at the University
obvious option. The larger part of the diver-
monetary experiment will cause equity
of Groningen
gence between the two asset classes is
prices to decline, spreads to widen and
roelof.salomons@kempen.nl
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
KEMPEN OUTLOOK, NOVEMBER 2017
27