Q4 2022 MARKET REPORT NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & WASHINGTON, D.C. ® Each office independently owned and operated.
FROM THE BROKERYEAR IN REVIEW 2022
2022 is finally in the rear view mirror and no industry or group of people are happier to see it go than those that work in the real estate world. Interest rates driven by inflation, economic concerns and financial uncertainty unnerved both buyers and sellers that led to the transitional year we experienced in 2022. Typically, our real estate market is generally more stable than other large metro areas, but our markets showed unit sales having suffered significant declines albeit not to the extent of other national markets. All counties, cities and municipalities in the Greater Washington, D.C. metro area experienced similar metrics in terms of increasing inventory and declining unit sales.
Northern Virginia unit sales showed a significant decrease of -25% YOY while the average home price landed at a respectable increase of +7.9% YOY. This metric was down slightly from 2021’s increase of +9.3% YOY. Moving forward for Northern Virginia, inventory levels continue to rise at a rapid pace providing some positive signs for a modest market recovery in 2023.
The story remained the same for the Washington, D.C and Montgomery County markets. Unit sales in D.C. were down -20% while home prices came in at an increase of +2.4% YOY (down significantly from the +8.1% increase the previous year). Similarly, Montgomery County unit sales were down -23% and home prices landed at an increase of +6.6% YOY. The outlying southern Maryland counties (Calvert, Charles and Saint Mary’s) experienced much the same as the rest of our “in close” markets with regard to unit sales (down -35%, -24% and -22% YOY respectfully). However, these counties all saw a drop in home sale prices and slight increases in DOM (days on market). Similarly to Northern Virginia, the increase in inventory for these counties will provide buyers greater opportunities as we progress into the spring market.
Looking forward into 2023, we do see a market in transition. It appears we are returning to what might be considered a “normalization” of the market. Significant home price reductions on active listings, contingencies making a comeback, swelling open house crowds and sellers willing to negotiate with potential buyers are becoming commonplace. That being said, uncertainty will still be the watchword as we move further into 2023. Unit sales are forecasted to fall in the first and second quarters but will start to flatten out in the second half of the year. Home prices will continue to “decelerate” or increase just slightly but will remain close to the levels for year ending 2022. Although our markets will face some headwinds with recession worries, continued high interest rates and market uncertainty, the uniqueness of our market continues to put us in a more favorable position than others. Virginia continues to have one of the highest concentrations of technology talent in the US as demonstrated by the announcement of Boeing and Raytheon moving their headquarters to Arlington as well as smaller firms relocating to the D.C. and Maryland areas. New construction will continue to be a contributing factor to our overall market stability (especially with regard to jobs) but will shift from a concentration of single-family homes to that of multi-unit construction. Affordability continues to be a limiting factor for some, especially first-time home buyers, hence the move for developers to multi-unit construction; However, as interest rates start to stabilize, this too may ease. Finally, although we are technically in a ”seller’s market”, buyers will wield considerably more leverage than they have over the past few years resulting in a distinct reversal of fortunes for sellers. In the short term, 2023 will continue to be a challenging year but predictions from multiple sources favor a more positive outlook for the third and fourth quarters. All in all, most experts still believe the purchase of a home remains one of the best financial investments.
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ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS · VIENNA · MIDLOTHIAN All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS/SmartCharts
METRO CENTER
9 CAPITOL HILL 9 DUPONT 9 FOGGY BOTTOM 9 GEORGETOWN 9 KALORAMA 9 LOGAN CIRCLE WASHINGTON D.C. 5 ALEXANDRIA 5 ARLINGTON 5 ASHBURN 5 FAIRFAX CO 5 FAIRFAX STATION 5 LORTON 5 McLEAN 5 SPRINGFIELD 5 VIENNA 6 WOODBRIDGE 6 LOUDOUN CO 6 PRINCE WILLIAM CO NORTHERN VIRGINIA CONTENTS MARKET SUMMARY 2 DMV MARKET ANALYSIS 13 BETHESDA 13 CHEVY CHASE 13 POTOMAC 13 ROCKVILLE 13 SILVER SPRING 13 CALVERT CO MARYLAND 13 CHARLES CO 13 FREDERICK CO 13 HOWARD CO 14 MONTGOMERY CO 14 PRINCE GEORGE’S CO 14 SAINT MARY’S CO
AVG SALE PRICE $681,267 NORTHERN VIRGINIA TOTAL UNITS SOLD 6,182 AVG DAYS ON MARKET 19 TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME $4.2B Single family, townhouses & condominiums Q4 2022
5 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 59 $1,002,150 27 -47 -11 +29 167 $1,244,737 28 -46 +3 +17 88 $1,023,550 25 -45 +6 +150 townhome units sold avg price avg days 127 $933,202 23 -48 +13 +44 44 $813,903 32 -56+68 136 $679,465 25 -48 +9 +127 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 239 $487,075 29 -39 +16 -9 289 $461,902 42 -37 -12 +5 106 $509,410 37 -32 +15 +54 ALEXANDRIA ARLINGTON ASHBURN Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 1,233 $999,928 25 -41 +1 +14 47 $1,020,679 20 -25 +1 +54 22 $939,138 23 -52 +21 +15 townhome units sold avg price avg days 679 $574,547 27 -49 +4 +42--21 $494,209 29 -69 +6 +4 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 652 $395,369 29 -37 +9 -6--5 $332,780 6 -72 -3 -76 FAIRFAX CO FAIRFAX STATION LORTON Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 80 $2,043,137 22 -44 -5 -41 128 $731,849 24 -46 +4 +26 106 $1,286,885 23 -34 +8 -12 townhome units sold avg price avg days 14 $942,487 34 -58 +2 +100 90 $512,254 23 -25 +3 +35 26 $768,362 27 -61 +9 +13 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 41 $573,398 44 -52 +13 +2 25 $307,355 19 -19 +6 -39 29 $538,699 36 -3 +25 -23 McLEAN SPRINGFIELD VIENNA
WOODBRIDGE LOUDOUN CO PRINCE WILLIAM CO
42% → single family homes FAIRFAX COUNTY
4,441units soldQ42021
2,564 units sold Q4 2022
MARKET BALANCE
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2022
SELLER’S BALANCED BUYER’S $1.9B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q4 2022
6 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 241 $521,009 30 -45 -1 +88 491 $948,587 27 -41 +8 +80 651 $637,427 27 -42 +6 +69 townhome units sold avg price avg days 188 $398,451 25 -46 +4 +39 376 $616,525 25 -45 +7 +92 407 $436,740 26 -42 +7 +63 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 90 $350,572 26 -49 +8 +24 217 $451,454 30 -34 +13 +43 163 $356,305 25 -47 +8 +25
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Photo Courtesy of Marybeth Fraser (across), Kara Elias (above)
AVG DAYS ON MARKET 26
TOTAL UNITS SOLD 1,541
Q4 2022
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Single family, townhouses & condominiums
TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME $1.3B
AVG SALE PRICE $829,289
9 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days--------townhome units sold avg price avg days 79 $1,173,806 23 -49 -6 +21 3 $1,495,00 10 -57 -32 -84 2 $780,000 62 -60 -32 +170 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 21 $596,571 43 -53 +7 +10 17 $454,265 21 -51 -10 -59 19 $781,605 100 -24 +33 +41 CAPITOL HILL DUPONT FOGGY BOTTOM 24 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 2 $8,575,000 170+231 +204-----townhome units sold avg price avg days 28 $2,049,053 22 -32 +11 -58 5 $1,811,000 8 -17 -38 -82 3 $1,681,666 7 -70 -26 -83 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 21 $918,852 34 -16 -46 +21 24 $793,520 20 -29 +11 -20 37 $635,464 26 -30 -8 +4 GEORGETOWN KALORAMA LOGAN CIRCLE
36% → condo & co-op WASHINGTON, D.C.
1,188units soldQ42021
761 units sold Q4 2022
MARKET BALANCE
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2022
SELLER’S BALANCED BUYER’S
$417M TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q4 2022
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Photo Courtesy of Kara Elias
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MARYLAND TOTAL UNITS SOLD 2,301 AVG DAYS ON MARKET 25 AVG SALE PRICE $669,330 TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME $1.5B Single family, townhouses & condominiums* Q4 2022 *Data above represents Montgomery County only.
BETHESDA CHEVY CHASE
13 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 141 $1,526,369 22 -36 +8 +10 48 $1,779,593 21 -46 +8 +17 79 $1,525,678 22 -47 +14 +5 townhome units sold avg price avg days 18 $1,051,443 37 -25 +10 +85 1 $950,000-50 +2216 $969,606 33 -45 +14 +10 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 72 $415,295 48 -27 -7 -6 45 $775,264 45 -22 +16 +2 2 $727,500 14 -33 -25 -75
Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 157 $780,733 22 -39 +20 +16 286 $618,598 25 -42 +2 +67 240 $451,034 30 -48 -3 +30 townhome units sold avg price avg days 59 $805,734 20 -24 +19 -13 67 $445,096 28 -45 -3 +47 17 $342,232 14 -64 +condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 117 $361,429 33 -38 -8 -6 172 $248,995 28 -31 -4 +12 8 $356,500 39 -43 -3 +144 ROCKVILLE SILVER SPRING CALVERT CO Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 440 $483,022 29 -41 +5 +71 515 $562,058 24 -39 +5 +14 392 $696,544 24 -38 -1 +26 townhome units sold avg price avg days 156 $334,954 19 -44 +3 +46 363 $413,156 18 -29 +10 +64 240 $437,268 15 -34 +3 +15 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 11 $139,254 21 -39 -29 +40 91 $297,905 16 -38 +4 +23 183 $361,111 17 -27 +13 +31 CHARLES CO FREDERICK CO HOWARD CO
POTOMAC
Photo Courtesy of George Mrad & Melanie Khoury (opposite)
MONTGOMERY CO PRINCE GEORGE’S CO SAINT MARY’S CO
41% → single family homes MONTGOMERY COUNTY
1,963units soldQ42021
1,155 units sold Q4 2022
MARKET BALANCE
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2022
SELLER’S BALANCED BUYER’S $1B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q4 2022
14 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 Q4 2022 % diff from 2021 single family units sold avg price avg days 1,155 $907,383 24 -41 +6 +33 1,213 $478,552 29 -37 +4 +45 255 $414,823 31 -41 +2 +41 townhome units sold avg price avg days 547 $523,251 21 -41 +9 +11 527 $389,478 25 -34 +7 +56 55 $296,328 29 -26 +14 +81 condo/co-op units sold avg price avg days 599 $343,710 30 -37356 $264,926 25 -21 +13 +4 11 $212,490 13-2 -24
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get to know the good life. ALEXANDRIA 1701 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 703-535-3610 ARLINGTON 2111 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1050 Arlington, VA 22201 703-224-6000 TYSONS 8133 Leesburg Pike, Suite 800 Vienna, VA 22182 703-564-4000 MIDLOTHIAN 15871 City View Drive, Suite 120 Midlothian, VA 23113 804-858-9000 VIENNA 144 Church Street NW Vienna, VA 22180 703-564-4000