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NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND &
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Today, you cannot avoid hearing about how the housing market continues to have a major impact on our economy. Interest rates, home prices and inflation all play a major role in keeping potential buyers and sellers from moving forward. Although these factors certainly play a part in the housing market, as you know, we are a bit of an insulated market. All real estate is local - always has been and always will be. With that being said, the Q3 2024 real estate metrics for the greater Washington, D.C. Metropolitan areas continue to significantly produce more positive results than what is being reported and projected country wide.
The Northern Virginia market continued to outpace its neighbors in DC and Maryland (primarily Montgomery County) with some of the outlying Maryland counties experiencing some of the same mixed results. Northern Virginia came in at a healthy +6.5% in home prices and +5.2% in unit sales with Washington, D.C. landing at +9.6% in home prices but lagging in unit sales at -14.6%. Montgomery County was up +7% in home prices but just down a bit with unit sales at -.04%.
Individually, almost every single city and county in Northern Virginia (with the exception of Alexandria City and Arlington) showed strong results across all metrics. Alexandria and Arlington home prices were up (+10.3% and +5.8% respectfully) but unit sales faltered at -10% in Alexandria and -5.2% in Arlington. Although home prices continue to rise, inventory has also been rising exponentially for the last several months.
As might be expected, interest rates have played a significant role in the rise of inventory levels. Rate reductions have provided a long-awaited opportunity for sellers who have been thinking about upgrading or downsizing but having resisted over the last several years. The lower rates have encouraged sellers to think this may be a great time to make their move, especially given the escalating home prices.
Although single family homes continue to be the preferred housing stock for most buyers (up 6.4% for Northern Virginia), townhomes have continued to show strong growth among all jurisdictions based on a price point more attractive and affordable for first time home buyers and current homeowners looking to change their living arrangements. Growth in this housing stock showed strong results with Northern Virginia +5.6%, Washington, D.C. +10%, Montgomery County +5.2% and finally, Prince Georges County +17.5%.
One effect of the increasing inventory levels and forever rising (it seems) home prices is the final sales price compared to the original list price. Over the past several years, sellers were getting 100% of their list price and in many cases, even getting above the 100% mark due to the multiple offer trend we were experiencing. Today, we are seeing those percentages dropping into the high 90%’s. Northern Virginia experienced a -.68% decrease in sales price from original list price (from 100.5% down to 99.8%), Washington, D.C. down -.84% (from 97.4% to 96.6%) and Montgomery County down -.71% (from 101.3% to 100.6%). These percentage changes may seem insignificant, but subtle changes in price can mean several thousands of dollars of savings for the buyer at the closing table.
Projections from experts suggest modest gains in home prices as we move forward into Q4. The unexpected rise of inventory levels over the past several months might support this projection as we are seeing some movement along these lines. More inventory would normally bring down prices but it’s anybody’s guess right now as to how the market in our geographical area will fare in Q4. Home prices are overwhelmingly positive Year to Date while unit sales continue to fluctuate. Lastly, while we might be feeling some pain at the pump and grocery stores, inflation is starting to come down, job growth is up, and our economy overall remains strong suggesting a housing market that may experience some bumps but will still be the envy of many other geographical cities and counties. “Resilient” is the word I would use to categorize the DMV market as we move into Q4 and beyond.
TOTAL UNITS SOLD
7,577
Q3 2024
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
Single family, townhouses & condominiums
ALEXANDRIA ARLINGTON ASHBURN
FAIRFAX CO FAIRFAX STATION LORTON
COUNTY 1,509 units sold Q3 2023
1,613units soldQ32024 7% → single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, September 2024
$1.9B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2024
Q3 2024
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Single family, townhouses & condominiums
CAPITOL HILL
24
GEORGETOWN KALORAMA
LOGAN CIRCLE
MARKET BALANCE
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Spetember 2024
$394M TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q3 2024
2024
MARYLAND
Single family, townhouses & condominiums*
BETHESDA CHEVY CHASE POTOMAC
ROCKVILLE SILVER SPRING
CHARLES CO FREDERICK CO HOWARD CO
MARKET BALANCE
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, September 2024
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