KW Metro Center Q1 2024 Market Report

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NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & WASHINGTON, D.C.

The 2024 Q1 results for the Greater Washington, D.C. real estate market are in! The usual suspects of abysmal inventory levels and spotty unit sales continued to plague the market. However, we have also seen a significant uptick in this late spring market, with March showing encouraging signs as to what it might hopefully look like moving forward into the rest of the year. Additionally, April has kicked off a very strong showing in terms of home price increases, significantly declining days on market (reporting double digit decreases) and with unit sales starting to pick up. The counties of Alexandria City, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Montgomery and Prince George all experienced varying levels of a rebound in the metrics utilized to measure the health of the market. The numbers for Northern Virginia also showed some promise with a 9.5% increase in home prices, DOM down -24% and tepid unit sales off by just -4%.

One might imagine with escalating home prices, stubborn interest rates (hovering around the 7% mark) and the lack of available inventory, buyers would be sitting on the sidelines hoping these factors might change in their favor. That is simply not the case. Available homes are moving at a brisk pace with the waving of contingencies and the number of offers submitted still prevalent in the market. In some cases, offers greatly exceeding the asking price is still a commonplace trend. Enormous pent up buyer demand, the realization that current rates are what they are (and will probably remain so) along with the desire to “move on” in their lives has brought these buyers back into the market.

Although consumer debt is rising and experts have predicted a bit of a slowdown in the DC economy through the first half of 2024, confidence in the housing market is still showing strong resilience as affordability is beginning to take a bit of a back seat to buyers looking to purchase this year. Don’t get me wrong, affordability continues to be an issue but has somewhat been sidelined by other buying factors, specifically pent-up demand. Even with interest rates stubbornly hanging around the 7% mark, there is a definitive shift in the attitude when it comes to rates.

Forecasts from experts continue to predict another year of declining inventory but we are seeing a small glimmer of hope in this metric, specifically in the resale category. As current interest rates (some fluctuations will occur) continue to be the accepted norm, sellers may see the opportunity to sell based on the equity they have built over the course of the past several years. These equity gains range anywhere from 20% - 35% over the past five years and may precipitate a stronger willingness to sell. There has been a trend toward purchasing new construction based on the lack of resale inventory, but this segment needs to quickly ramp up to satisfy the housing demand. Housing starts for our market in March were down 12% YOY and 16.6% MOM (month over month).

2024 will be a pivotal year in the real estate industry and the Greater Washington, D.C. market will not be immune to some of the changes. Based on our proximity to the nation’s capital, the influx of businesses relocating here, and the overall business environment, these factors will help shield us to a greater extent than other markets across the country. The confusion surrounding the recent court settlements regarding the real estate industry will certainly factor into how the market evolves; however, at this point we should anticipate “business as usual” although compensation models may change. As the real estate purchase and sale market evolves, so too will the brokerages that facilitate the process. The greater Washington, D.C. market will continue to offer opportunities for those agents and brokerages that can swiftly adjust to new obstacles that may arise. As for buyers and sellers, the market continues to provide a great opportunity to move ahead in life. The purchase of real estate still remains one of the most sound concepts for building wealth. That is one thing that has not changed.

Single family, townhouses & condominiums

courtesy of

ALEXANDRIA ARLINGTON ASHBURN

FAIRFAX CO FAIRFAX STATION LORTON

McLEAN SPRINGFIELD VIENNA

Photo

MARKET BALANCE

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2024

1,052units

Photo courtesy of Nicole M. McCullar (above)

Photos courtesy of Stephanie Williams (above & below)

Q1 2024

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Single family, townhouses & condominiums

24

GEORGETOWN KALORAMA

LOGAN CIRCLE

Photo courtesy of Stephanie Williams (above)

MARKET BALANCE

The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, March 2024

SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q1 2024

Photo courtesy of Phyllis Papkin

Photos courtesy of Nicole M. McCullar (above & below)

Single family, townhouses & condominiums*

BETHESDA CHEVY CHASE POTOMAC

ROCKVILLE SILVER SPRING

CHARLES CO FREDERICK CO

CO

MARKET BALANCE

The market balance is determined by the average

Photos courtesy of Stephanie Williams (above, below & across)

ALEXANDRIA

1701 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314

703-535-3610

ARLINGTON 2111 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1050 Arlington, VA 22201

703-224-6000

144 Church Street NW Vienna, VA 22180

703-564-4000

MIDLOTHIAN

15871 City View Drive, Suite 120

Midlothian, VA 23113

804-858-9000

1775 Tysons Blvd Suite 1450

Tysons, VA 22102

703-564-4000

VIENNA

TYSONS