KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.
MARKET REPORT Q4 2018
®
8,013 UNITS SOLD
$527,726
$4.2 B
AV E R AG E S A L E P R I C E
S O L D D O L L A R VO L U M E
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
The 2018 housing market in the NOVA, DC and MD suburbs (Montgomery Co) on a YOY basis were mildly disappointing given buyer demand, continued low interest rates and a red hot jobs market. YOY average home sale prices continued at a modest pace with all jurisdictions showing increases (Alex +5.7%, Arl +1%, Fairfax +1.9% and DC +1.5%) but suffered lackluster unit sales based primarily from a lack of available housing inventory. Home prices will continue to rise throughout 2019 but buyer demand, new job growth, sellers that refinanced with attractive mortgage rates will put additional pressure on already strained inventory levels. Q4 overall unit sales and average home sale price increases outpaced the YOY numbers for most of the Greater DC market (NOVA, DC, MoCo) but once again critically low inventory levels and entry level new home construction slowed real growth. Among the bright spots in this mixed market, Alexandria City continued to show strong growth with a 11% increase in unit sales and a 6% increase in avg sold price. We will continue to see moderate to strong housing growth in NOVA moving west as cities and counties experience redevelopment projects, the Metro’s Silver Line nears completion and tech companies continue to make their presence felt in the Dulles corridor. What’s on the horizon in 2019? Although, the National Association of Realtors is forecasting a 5% increase in home sale prices and a 1% increase in unit sales nationally, our Greater DC market (NOVA, DC, MD) will continue to experience the slow but predictable growth we’ve experienced over the past few years. Housing growth will continue to remain restrained by low inventory, home affordability, rising interest rates and insufficient new home construction. Additionally, seniors aging in place, homes refinanced with attractive mortgage rates and investors converting properties to rentals (anticipating Amazon associates) will also play a significant role in the slow unit sales growth in 2019. Expect avg home sale prices to increase at a steady rate of approximately 2-4% for our market. Amazon has created quite the buzz and anxiety for our market with many sellers hedging their bets on rising home values by delaying selling their homes and buyers expressing concerns over affordability and availability. The truth is, the Amazon impact will be felt over the long run with minimal impact initially. Amazon is projecting the creation of approximately 400 new jobs in 2019, 900 more in 2020 and then escalating job creation on a year over year basis after that. The greatest impact will initially be felt on existing and new local business growth, educational investment, construction and lastly, housing. The estimated financial impact could be as great as a $15B boost to our economy and 62,000 new jobs by 2030. The local jobs market will benefit significantly from the Amazon announcement thereby putting additional pressures on the housing market. Bottom line, if you have it sell it now and if you want to buy, buy it now.
- Jim Lyons, Broker
KW METRO CENTER 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Stats sourced from Bright MLS
WA S H I N G T O N ,
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CONTENTS
CAPITOL
D. C .
HILL
7 D O W N T O W N 7 D U P O N T 8
F O G G Y
B O T T O M / W E S T
E N D
8 G E O R G E T O W N 8 K A L O R A M A 8
L O G A N
C I R C L E
9
M O U N T
P L E A S A N T
9 S H AW 9
NORTHERN
W E S L E Y
H E I G H T S
VIRGINIA
3
ALEXANDRIA
3
ARLINGTON
3
FALLS
4
LORTON
4
LOUDOUN
5
M c L E A N
11 P O T O M AC
5
SPRINGFIELD
12 R O C K V I L L E
5
VIENNA
12
MONTGOMERY
CHURCH 11 B E T H E S D A COUNTY
11
C H E V Y
S I LV E R
C H A S E
S P R I N G
CNTY
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
- Catherine Jouet, Broker
2
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“
Q4 for the Northern Virginia market exhibited more of the same growth pattern it has throughout the year. Unit sales down (-5.2%), avg sales price up (+2.6%) and DOM down both on a quarterly and annual basis. Sellers and buyers can expect to see more of these same metrics for 2019. 2018 YTD numbers closely mirrored the Q4 numbers across all three jurisdictions-NOVA, DC and Montgomery County. The NOVA market is forecasted to experience continued low unemployment, moderate wage growth job and a reduction in dependence on Federal jobs although this will be offset by an increase in the computer related and bio-tech sectors. These factors along with anticipated minimal Amazon impact will put additional pressure on an already under inventoried market.
Alexandria
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Q4 2017 378 $659,084 65
Q4 2018 419 $696,690 57
% +11 +6 -12
Arlington
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Coop avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
400 $588,192 58 453 $327,914 64 264 $940,272 99
439 $595,789 50 471 $314,830 56 244 $1,021,693 71
+10 +1 -14 +4 -4 -13 -8 +9 -28
69
63
-9
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
$688,984 91
$815,705 62
+18 -32
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
378 $433,844 84
379 $414,065 66
-5 -21
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
183 $728,823 68
174 $760,934 62
-5 +4 -9
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
34 $604,597 46
47 $600,296 54
+38 -1 +46
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
119 $267,654 66
130 $275,343 55
+9 +3 -17
units sold
ALEXANDRIA HOMES AVERAGE SALE PRICE
→
6% QTD 5.7% 2018
→
Falls Church
3
Lorton
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Q4 2017 41 $665,339 84
Q4 2018 27 $669,513 66
% -34 +1 -21
Loudoun County
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Coop avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
52 $387,394 62 15 $240,073 101 776 $629,757 129
55 $399,434 56 15 $247,320 55 653 $650,831 81
+6 +3 -10 +3 -46 -16 +3 -37
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
509 $430,987 105
499 $454,700 62
-2 +6 -41
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
218 $288,776 80
222 $310,175 65
+2 +7 -19
4
Q4 2017 133 $1,476,484 80
Q4 2018 119 $1,541,115 102
% -11 +4 +28
13 $791,508 68 72 $381,622 56 146 $545,081 60
13 $774,662 76 67 $427,832 59 162 $556,315 60
-2 +12 -7 +12 +5 +11 +2 -
100
107
+7
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
$402,800 47
$424,542 49
+5 +4
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
19 $245,653 46
20 $245,205 42
+5 -9
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
138 $963,857 68
115 $935,458 59
-17 -3 -13
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
35 $594,763 61
39 $628,086 55
+11 +6 -10
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
29 $324,747 83
34 $368,853 80
+17 +14 -4
McLean
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Springfield
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Coop avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold
Vienna
5
WASHINGTON, D.C.
- Jim Lyons, Broker
6
“
“
The DC housing market continued to deliver mixed results with wildly fluctuating metrics by neighborhood. The Q4 results were lackluster in regards to overall unit sales experiencing a -10.3% decline and avg sales price up just 2%. The 2018 YOY results again delivered similar results with avg sale prices up 1.5% and unit sales off by a -2.3%. However, active listings have been up significantly for the past 3 months which bodes well for a strong start in 2019. With multi-unit housing developments dominating the housing landscape and rents continuing to climb, home affordability may just make purchasing a more desirable option.
Capitol Hill
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Q4 2017 6 $1,205,297 80
Q4 2018 3 $808,667 51
% -50 -33 -36
Downtown
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Coop avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
66 $1,089,350 37 32 $501,933 48 1 $1,635,000 539
78 $1,060,810 39 40 $545,670 43 -
+18 -3 +5 +25 +9 -10 -
1
1
-
$1,600,000 1
$1,495,000 84
-7 +8300
28 $347,160 79
46 $502,392 42
+65 +45 -47
-
-
-
9 $1,456,167 40
2 $1,651,000 29
-78 +13 -28
27 $577,026 36
24 $432,521 39
-11 -25 +8
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
→
WASINGTON D.C AVERAGE SALE PRICE
2% QTD 1.5% 2018
→
Dupont
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
7
Foggy Bottom/ West End
Q4 2017 -
Q4 2018 2 $1,558,500 203
% -
4 $1,485,500 121 72 $1,014,156 39 5 $2,728,400
4 $1,255,000 95 51 $914,972 71 5 $2,485,000
-16 -21 -30 -10 +82 -9
64
80
+25
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
27 $1,609,507 139
21 $1,409,300 69
-22 -12 -50
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
21 $1,017,160 106
24 $1,018,498 81
+14 -24
1 $357,500 13
2 $3,450,000 210
+100 +865 +1515
6 $1,825,667 67
4 $1,892,500 73
-33 +4 +9
49 $637,450 56
41 $640,462 43
-16 -23
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
1 $1,500,000 -
1 $899,000 16
-40 -
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
6 $1,510,833 29
8 $1,518,626 44
+33 +52
30 $841,963 45
35 $828,619 32
+17 -2 -29
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Coop avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Georgetown
Kalorama
Single Family avg days on market
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
Logan Circle
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
8
Q4 2017 1 $339,900 71
Q4 2018 2 $922,500 22
% +100 +171 -70
18 $1,153,750 54 27 $497,841 59 1 $850,000 5
17 $1,263,403 32 20 $496,766 52 -
-6 +10 -41 -26 -12 -
5
10
+100
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
$998,000 51
$1,005,600 68
+1 +33
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
5 $662,200 41
9 $885,889 26
+80 +34 -37
5 $1,622,600 114
3 $1,737,000 41
-40 +7 -64
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
2 $970,000 29
4 $898,750 118
+100 -7 +307
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
27 $421,533 131
16 $554,000 106
-41 +31 -19
Mount Pleasant
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Shaw
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Coop avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold
Wesley Heights
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Shaw delivered very strong Q4 numbers in units sold for attached and condo properties with condo sales experiencing a 34% increase in avg sales price.
9
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
- Michael Adams, Broker
10
“
“
Following the trend of the NOVA and DC markets, Montgomery County showed mixed results in both unit sales and home sale prices with no particular housing type dominating the sales landscape for Q4. However, the significant growth initiatives MoCo has projected-250 projects including 30,500 Multi Dwelling Units, millions of sq ft of retail and office space should bring a needed boost for these close in cities.
Bethesda
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Q4 2017 188 $1,146,152 105
Q4 2018 152 $1,183,216 83
% -19 +3 -21
Chevy Chase
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Coop avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
7 $1,246,664 73 89 $534,301 88 63 $1,275,819 129
8 $1,173,006 58 64 $397,936 63 46 $1,494,269 98
+14 -6 -21 -28 -26 -29 -27 +17 -24
units sold
-
-
-
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
-
-
-
50 $638,448 106
45 $664,944 119
-10 +4 +12
111 $1,136,310 134
107 $1,063,895 117
-4 -6 -13
21 $704,666 82
20 $828,090 97
-5 +18 +18
3 $1,005,667 53
1 $1,130,000 71
-67 +12 +34
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
MONTGOMERY C O U N T Y AV E R A G E SALE PRICE
→→
Potomac
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
2.4% Q4
3.6% 2018
11
Rockville
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Q4 2017 193 $573,964 67
Q4 2018 175 $588,585 59
% -9 +3 -12
Silver Spring
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Coop avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
57 $607,897 74 116 $324,275 79 412 $465,002 64
64 $586,661 67 117 $344,876 71 381 $485,045 59
+12 -3 -9 +1 +6 -10 -8 +4 -8
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
109 $366,483 47
98 $375,297 54
-10 +2 +15
units sold avg sale price Condo & Coop avg days on market
211 $207,523 68
183 $232,216 54
-13 +12 -21
12