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Saint Joseph's College (Suffolk Campus) If you’re the kind of person who’s so organized you’re already planning all your vacations for the coming century, be wary… because some of your favourite getaways might not exist by then. Natural disasters, political turmoil and international hissy-fits are all poised to completely rewrite the world as we know it. So get ready for: 10 Countries That Won’t Exist in 100 Years NUMBER 10: KIRIBATI As far as tropical islands go, Kiribati is pretty much the bee’s knees. It has over 1000 kilometers of white sandy coastline, all spread across 33 atolls and reef islands in the South Pacific Ocean. Perfect if, like me, you want to get away from the constant rain, traffic and texting pedestrians of the big city. There’s just one problem - and it’s a big’un… Kiribati will probably be underwater in just a few decades’ time. This is, of course, the fault of global warming. Sea levels are rising by an average of a centimeter every two years. This may not sound like a lot, but for a low-altitude nations like Kiribati, it’s pretty much a death sentence. The small Kiribati islands of Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea have already been sent to a watery grave. That’s pretty ironic considering Abanuea literally translates as ‘the bea ch which is longlasting’. The uninhabited islands disappeared beneath the waves in the late 1990s and many more are expected to go the same way. Only a few Kiribati islands are expected to remain by 2115, and those that do probably won’t be able to support the agriculture needed to maintain more than a couple of thousand people. Small-scale evacuations are already under-way today, and appeals have been put out for countries like Australia, New Zealand and Fiji to take in permanent refugees from the sinking nation. NUMBER 9: THE UNITED KINGDOM Let’s go from one island nation to another. The UK came into being in May 1707. Today it consists of Northern Ireland and Great Britain aka England, Scotland and Wales. But that may not be the case for much longer... Ever since 1853 there have been strong nationalist voices in Scotland, calling for freedom from the London-led government. In the 1930s, these voices banded together to form the Scottish National Party, which has lately become one of the big boys on the political stage. Despite losses in the 2017 election, the SNP still control 35 of Scotland’s 59 seats, giving them a comfortable majority in the country’s parliament. There have been three Scottish referendums questioning whether the country should have more independence outside of the UK. The most recent one, in 2014, was nail-bitingly close - with 55.3% of the country voting to remain united. However, ever since the UK’s decision to leave the European Union in 2016, calls for Scottish independence have re-emerged. 62% of Scottish voters opted against Brexit and nationalists have raised concerns about London negotiating a deal that doesn’t have Scotland’s best interests at heart. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has strongly hinted at the possibility of a second independence referendum. And opinion polls indicate that - were this to take place - it could be even closer than last time. NUMBER 8: PALESTINE Despite being free from British rule since 1948, Palestine is still not technically a country. You see, most of the world’s biggest powers - like the USA, France and Germany - don’t actually recognize that it exists. And not in a unicorns or Loch Ness Monster kind of way. I mean in a political ‘you’re not a proper country’ kind of way. That being said, more than two thirds of the United Nation’s member states do recognize it. And, while it doesn’t have a vote, it does have a seat in the UN. Part of the problem for Palestine is the amount of conflict it has on its doorstep. After all, it is surrounded by Israel, Syria, Iraq and Turkey. As a result, large areas of Palestine are occupied by Israeli troops, who use them as buffer zones against insurgent terrorist groups like the so-called Islamic State. However, this Israeli military presence often undermines the power of the Palestinian government, which aggravates the already high tensions between the two countries. The ongoing and complicated troubles in the Middle East have put sorting out Palestine’s identity crisis way down on the international agenda. This means that it is very unlikely that the nation will gain the international recognition it needs any time soon - if ever at all. NUMBER 7: BELGIUM Known worldwide for its waffles, chocolate and brussel sprouts, Belgium is not normally a country you would associate with conflict. But, in actual fact, it is among the most divided nations on the planet. The nation is made up of two very distinct districts. In southern Belgium there’s Wallonia a French-speaking region that makes up just over half of the country’s landmass but only about a third of the population. Dutch-speaking Flanders sits in the north, which is much richer and contributes about 60% of Belgium’s GDP. The vastly different cultures have lived uncomfortably side-by-side in the same country since 1830, repeatedly pushing for independence from one another. A general election in 2010, revealed just how ridiculously fragmented the Belgian political landscape is, when none of the 11 parties won more than 20% of the seats. It took an insane almost two years of negotiations for a political coalition to be agreed - meaning that Belgium didn’t have a government for a record-breaking 589 days. Fun fact: public protests
against the lack of government included a naked protest at the 250-day mark, and even nation-wide threats to boycott sex and shaving. With the divisions between the two districts growing every year, it seems unlikely that a unified Belgium will live to see 2117. NUMBER 6: NORTH KOREA The instability of North Korea should come as no surprise. After all, when your country is ruled by a guy who sees nuclear war with America as a #SquadGoal, you hardly give off a ‘stable’ image. Moreover, the North Korean government controls its population through a frightening and unsustainable mix of purges and a cult of personality. And then there’s the economy. North Korea’s per capita GDP sits at 180th out of 193 UN member states, which I hardly need to say, is not very good. As a result, the country’s collapse is looking increasingly inevitable. A few high ranking defectors have spoken out about military coup attempts that have already taken place, suggesting strong anti-state sentiment in the country. These attempts were halted by the country’s military, which I can’t deny is pretty damn strong, and then ruthlessly kept out of the media. Most experts predict that the most plausible outcome is an eventual reunion of North and South Korea. After all, the state of North Korea was only originally created as part of a deal to give the Soviet Union control over the northern half of Japan’s pre-World War Two colony. Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, there’s not really any international advantage to keeping them separate. NUMBER 5: TAIWAN Like Palestine, Taiwan is a complicated story with different international powers disagreeing about its status as an independent nation. It’s not a member of the UN - in fact, it’s the most populous state that isn’t, with a population of almost 24 million. According to China, Taiwan is just a breakaway province that will eventually be part of the country again. Basically, it’s a bit like that time that Michelle Williams tried to pursue a solo music career and just ended up coming straight back to Destiny’s Child. But supporters of Taiwanese independence argue that it’s actually much more autonomous than that. It has its own military, maintains diplomatic relations with various other nations and even has its own democratically elected government. Basically, they think it’s more of Beyoncé than Michelle. However, a 2015 poll of the population found that only 24% supported Taiwanese independence, so reunification with China seems pretty likely. What’s more, ever since pro-independence Chen Shui-bian was elected as Taiwanese president in 2000, China has put measures in place to prevent secession. For example, in 2005 they passed a law that stating China’s right to use ‘non-peaceful means’ against Taiwan if it moved towards independence - which sounds kind of ominous. NUMBER 4: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA The United States may not be united much longer. Following in the wake of the the 2016 ‘Brexit’ vote, loads of other countries considered independence referendums of their own. There was talk of a Greek exit from the euro zone - aka ‘Grexit’ - or other countries following in Britain’s shoes with ‘Quitaly’, ‘Abortugal’ or ‘Angeleave Merkel’. Bad puns aside, Brexit did stir up some genuine political movements, including reviving some old debates about Texas potentially leaving the United States. The Lone Star State has been pushing for autonomy for a while. Before it even officially joined the US in 1845, the second Texan president Mirabeau B. Lamar strongly advocated going it alone after they seceded from Mexico. Recently, ‘Texit’ has been gaining momentum, with research from Public Policy Polling demonstrating that almost 40% of Texans want independence. So could this be the beginning of the end for the United States? Well... possibly. In March 2017, a study found that 32% of Californians want a divorce from Washington and the Alaskan Independence Party is now the third largest political party in the state. NUMBER 3: THE NETHERLANDS If you happen to be planning a break to Amsterdam, I’d get in there quick… There’s a strong possibility that The Netherlands could be underwater in a hundred years time. The Netherlands is one of the lowest-lying nations on Earth, with more than half [EDIT: Show “50%” onscreen] its population living at or below one meter above sea level. This makes it incredibly vulnerable to flooding. In 1953, a huge storm slammed into the country, with floodwater reaching 5.5 meters deep. 1,836 people were killed in this disaster. Since then, the Dutch government has put a lot of effort into constructing dikes and dams - they spend over $1 billion a year on flood defence. That’s great for keeping rising sea levels out, but unfortunately it’s also pretty efficient at keeping internal flooding in. And even if you keep throwing money at it, one flood defence is always going to break eventually. And once the water’s in, it’s trapped in. In 1995, a tiny crack appearing on the Ochten dam caused the government to forcibly evacuate 4,700 people. Experts believe another storm as devastating as the 1953 one could cripple the nation, swamping its infrastructure, stranding thousands of people, and costing the country billions. And, with global warming set to unleash its water-y wrath upon the world, a storm that turns Amsterdam into Atlantis, is not unlikely at all. NUMBER 2: SOUTH SUDAN It would be kinda awkward if the newest country in the world ends up be the shortest-lived, but it looks like things are heading that way. South Sudan was only formed in 2011, after a referendum passed with a huge 99% of the population voting for independence from Sudan. It was a democratic move celebrated by the international community, but that joy has since fizzled out. The country fell into disarray dizzyingly quickly, after failed negotiations with Sudan meant the nation’s borders and trade relationships were never properly established. As such, South Sudan’s economic infrastructure is basically non-existent and its vast
population is severely suffering. More than 40% of South Sudan’s 12 million people have been described as ‘food insecure’, and civil unrest is rife. Nine of its 10 provinces are currently involved in armed conflicts, which has not only caused the deaths of up to 300,000 people but, has actively prevented aid from getting to those who need it. The situation in the young country is dire, and it is looking more and more likely that reunification with Sudan may be the only option. NUMBER 1: CANADA Canada may seem like a country too polite to have any problems. But the land of Ice Hockey, maple syrup, and other things probably, is closer to falling apart than you might think. After Britain beat up France in the Seven Years War in the 1700s, the French were forced to hand over their territory in Canada. This land, which was joined with the rest of Canada in 1774, was known as Quebec. Although forced to be part of the same country, Quebec remained culturally very different from the rest of Canada, and to this day the official language is still French rather than English. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Quebec mainly stuck with Canada to avoid being annexed by the US. But whatever you think of America’s modern foreign policy, you have to admit that the US is fairly unlikely to start marching troops into Montreal. As such, there are have been two independence referendums in Quebec’s recent history, with the desire to leave growing stronger each time. The first was in 1980, and only 40% of the region voted to secede. But in 1995 a second referendum was held, with 93% of the population turning out. The result was 49.4% voting to leave, the narrowest of losses for the campaign. In 2011, the number of secessionists passed the number of remainers for the first time. And with Quebec holding local elections in 2018, calls for a third, successful, independence referendum, may be just around the corner. So, that was 10 Countries That Won’t Exist in 100 Years. Which collapsing country was your favourite? Did we miss any failing states off the list? Let us know in the comments below. And if you want more upbeat version of this list, why not check out 10 New Countries That Could Exist In 10 Years, playing now King's College, Financial District, Manhattan.
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