GLOBAL PV MARKET OUTLOOK 2014

Information | Analytics | Expertise

APRIL 29TH 2014

GLOBAL PV MARKET OUTLOOK

Jessica Jin Senior Analyst, Solar Research IHS Technology Jessica.Jin@ihs.com Š 2015 IHS

GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2015 – WHAT WILL DRIVE GROWTH?

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165+ countries

© 2015 IHS

Small businesses to

Fortune 500

%

75+

of the Global Fortune 500

%

70+

of the Fortune 1000

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IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

Where is the PV market today?

Global PV Installations (GW) 70 60 30%

50 14% 23%

40

Asia Americas EMEA

30 20 10 0 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS

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IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

44.1 GW of PV installations in 2014 South Korea; 0,6 GW

Rest of world; 5,4 GW

South Africa; 0,9 GW

China; 12,6 GW

Australia; 0,9 GW France; 1,0 GW India; 1,1 GW

Germany; 1,9 GW

UK; 2,6 GW

USA; 7,1 GW

Japan; 10,0 GW

2014 Installations = 44.1 GW 14% Y-o-Y Growth Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS

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IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

57.3 GW of PV installations in 2015 Rest of world; 8,7 GW Chile; 0,9 GW China; 17,3 GW Australia; 0,9 GW Thailand; 1,1 GW France; 1,2 GW Germany; 2,0 GW

India; 2,0 GW

UK; 3,5 GW

Japan; 10,4 GW USA; 9,4 GW

2015 Installations = 57.3 GW 30% Y-o-Y Growth Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS

5

IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

Installations to reach 73 GW in 2019 Global PV Installations (GW) 140 120

Asia

100

Africa Americas

60

Middle East

40

Europe

GW

80

Optimistic

20

Conservative

0 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS

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IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

China to remain largest global market in 2015 Cumulative installations in 2019 = 124 GW

25.000 20.000 GW

Utility-scale

15.000

Large Commercial Medium Commercial

10.000

Small Commercial Residential

5.000 0 2013

2014

2015 2012

Installations (Figure above)

Connections (Official Statistics)

Unconnected Installations at Year End

2016 2013

2017 2014

4.8 GW

11 GW

12.6 GW

3.3 GW

10.9 GW

10.6 GW

1.5 GW

2.2 GW

2.8 GW

2018

2019 2015 17.3 GW

2016 17.4 GW

2017 18.6 GW

Source: PV Demand Market Tracker Š 2015 IHS

7

IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

Alternative scenarios in China 30 No cuts to incentives, incentives for DG are successful

25

Conservative Most-likely Optimistic

GW

20 15

Severe cuts to FiT rates and more restrictions on grid-connection.

10 5 2014

Š 2015 IHS

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

8

IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

PV installations >1 MW to peak in Japan in 2015 Mega solar projects to decrease after 2015 after further FiT decrease

12 10

GW

8 6 4 2 0 2011

2012

2013

Residential

2014

Small Commercial

2015

Medium Commercial

2016 Large Commercial

2017

2018

2019

Utility-scale

Note: Installations are for calendar year Š 2015 IHS

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IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

US installations to peak at 12.2 GW in 2016 IHS assumes ITC tax credit falls from 30% to 10% 14 12

GW

10 8 6 4 2 0 2013

2014 Residential

Š 2015 IHS

2015

Small Commercial

2016 Medium Commercial

2017 Large Commercial

2018

2019

Utility-Scale

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IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

UK installations boom in Q1 2015 2,50 Utility-scale installations forecast to fall dramatically after Q1 2015

2,00

GW

1,50

1,00

0,50

0,00

Residential

Š 2015 IHS

Small Commercial

Medium Commercial

Large Commercial

Utility-scale

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GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2015 – WHAT WILL DRIVE GROWTH?

Emerging Markets Help Drive Global Demand Top ten most attractive PV markets and market growth expectations

Attractiveness Index

65 South Africa

60 55

Chile

Israel

50

Turkey

45

Mexico

Philippines

Brazil

40

Jordan

Egypt

Algeria

35 30 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Year when IHS expects the market to reach 1 GW of cumulative PV capacity

South Africa

Chile

Israel

Turkey

Mexico

Brazil

Philippines

Jordan

Egypt

Source: IHS

Algeria © 2015 IHS

IHS attractiveness index based on both short term developments and macro level drivers and inhibitors.

The demand forecast shows the distribution of PV installations over time. © 2015 IHS

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IHS SOLAR MARKET UPDATE / APRIL 2015

Large projects lead solar growth 30000 25000

2014

2015

20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Off-Grid

Š 2015 IHS

Residential

Small Commercial

Medium Commercial

Large Commercial

Utility-Scale

13

GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2015 – WHAT WILL DRIVE GROWTH?

Conclusions

© 2015 IHS

14

TOP GLOBAL THREE PV TRENDS MARKET IN THE 2015INVERTER – WHAT WILL MARKET DRIVEAPRIL GROWTH? 2015

Any Questions Jessica Jin Senior Analyst, Solar Research, IHS Technology Jessica.Jin@ihs.com

© 2015 IHS

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