2014 global energy trends enerdata

Introduction • 2014: Global key figures • Trends by energy • Some confirmations • Some surprises – sometimes cyclical – sometimes structural

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 2

Part One Key energy figures for G20 countries in 2014

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 3

Energy: G20 key figures in 2014*

+3.5% Economic growth At purchasing power parity

2013:

+3.1%

2002-12: +3.8%

+0.3%

-0.2%

10.8 Gtep

26 GtCO2

Energy consumption stagnation

CO2 emissions stabilisation

2013:

+2.3%

2002-12: +2.3%

2013 :

+2.4%

2002-12: +2.6%

* Note: G20 countries account for about 80% of global energy consumption

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 4

Steady economic growth at global level with significant differences at country level GDP Growth in G20 countries (%/year)

•

Strong growth in China, slowing down for 3 years

•

Rebound in US growth thanks to an increase in consumption

•

No growth in Europe and Japan: weak consumption and investments

•

Near stagnation in Russia: geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices

10% 2012-13

8%

2013-14 2002-12

6% 4% 2% 0%

-2%

% of G20 G20

38%

21% 9%

BRICS China

India

4%

3%

41%

Brazil Russia

G7

21% 20 % 6% USA

UE. 28 Japan

Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 5

Historical stagnation in energy consumption Energy consumption growth in G20 (%/year) 8%

2012-13 2013-14

6%

•

No increase in energy consumption despite economic growth

•

China (30% of G20) : stabilisation for the 1st time in 17 years

•

Europe: largest fall ever (except during the economic crisis)

•

USA: moderate growth

•

India: very strong growth

•

High impact of climate in Europe and in some Asian countries

4% 2%

0% -2% -4% -6%

% of G20

G20

72%

47%

28%

G20 BRICS China w/o China

8%

7%

3%

India Russia Brazil

35%

21%

G7

USA

14%

4%

E.U.28 Japan

Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 6

China + USA = ~50% of G20 energy consumption G20 energy consumption by country country G20 energy consumptionbreakdown breakdown by 18%

China USA

21%

E.U.28

14% 6%

India

Brazil S. Korea Others

26%

20%

8%

7% 7%

Russia Japan

28%

4%

6%

2% 3%

2004 2014

2% 3% 12% 13%

Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 7

Significant decline in energy intensity in Europe and China Trends in energy intensity (%/year) 2012/2013

4%

•

Noticeable year: -3pts vs -1pt

•

Strong impact of China (-7 pts !):

2013/2014

2%

2002/2012

0%

See specific analysis

-2%

•

EU: record year,

•

Other countries: no noticeable improvement

-4%

-6%

-8%

% of G20 demand 72% G20

g20 w/o China

47%

28%

8%

7%

BRICS

China

India

Russia

3% Brazil

35% G7

21%

14%

USA

EU28

4% Japan

mainly due to climate conditions (2.5 pts)

Source: Enerdata

Energy intensity: energy consumption necessary to produce one unit of GDP 2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 8

Energy consumption evolution in China China: GDP, energy and coal consumption compared growths (2004-2014) 20.0%

•

Energy consumption growth Coal consumption growth Economic growth

17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% -2.5%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Structural changes toward a less energy-intensive economy: • Stabilisation in steel and cement production • Efficiency gains in power and manufacturing industries Cyclical impacts: • Slowdown in economic growth and power generation (+4% in 2014 vs. +7.5% in 2013)

•

-5.0% Source : Enerdata

Figures reliability

High hydropower availability

 Decline in coal share in the power mix from 75% to 73%

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 9

Stabilisation in CO2 emissions Trends in CO2 emissions in G20 countries (%/year) 10%

 

A first in 40 years!

Stabilisation strongly related to stagnating energy consumption



China: first drop since 1999 (energy demand +

2012-13

8%

2013-14

6%

2002-12

4% 2%

declining share of coal in power mix)

0% -2%

 

-4% -6% -8%

% of G20

G20

50%

32%

8%

6%

2%

BRICS China India Russia Brazil

34% G7

20%

13%

4%

Fall in Europe Strong increase in India

(consumption + high share of coal)

USA E.U.28 Japan

Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 10

Energy carbon factor remains stable Carbon factor and trends – G20 countries 2.0%

• India

Carbon factor growth. (CAGR 2000-14, %)

1.5%

1.0% 0.5%

G20 Brazil

0.0%

Argentina

BRICS

South Korea Canada

-0.5%

EU28

•

Japan

Indonesia

South Africa

China

G7

UK Germany

USA

Australia

Russia

-1.0%

Italy

France

-1.5%

Key points: • India: more coal • Japan: nuclear shutdown • EU: decrease in oil & coal demand, rising renewables •

-2.0% 1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Carbon factor

3.0

3.5

Source: Enerdata

In the long-term (2000-2014), no improvement Structural gaps between countries

References:  2.3 Gas  2.7 Oil  3.5 Coal

Carbon Factor : tonnes of CO2 emitted for 1 toe of energy consumed

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 11

First conclusions • • •

2014 was a remarkable year: near stagnation in energy demand and CO2 emissions despite economic growth Toward a less energy-intensive and coal-consuming economic growth?

It’s too soon to say…: – Structural trends to be confirmed: • Industrial structure and declining coal weight in China • Developments in renewable capacities and production • Realisation of energy efficiency policies

– Non-recurring and cyclical factors: • Very warm winter in Europe (record) and in some Asian countries • High hydropower availability in China, …

– Evolutions not yet visible • Stable carbon factor: no significant change in energy mix (despite rising renewable investments) • Evolution of the Indian economy 2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 12

Part Two Trends by energy

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 13

Energy mix

Coal: most consumed energy in G20 countries* Primary energy consumption breakdown in G20 countries + 8 pts for coal between 2000 and 2014 8%

Coal 8% 10%

9% 27%

2000 8.1 Gtoe

Oil

35%

Gas

19% Primary electricity**

20% 35%

Biomass

2014 10.8 Gtoe +34% vs 2000

29% Source: Enerdata

* Caution : oil remains the most consumed fuel at global level ** Nuclear, hydropower, wind, solar and geothermal 2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 14

Oil

Oil: 50% fall in international prices Crude oil price evolution (US$/bbl) 130 WTI

120

Why halving in 2014 after 3-4 years of stability?

•

Increase in US crude oil production

•

Market evolution: OPEC doesn’t lower its output (target of 30

Brent

110

Dubai

100 90 80 70 60

mbl/d kept)

50

•

No significant evolution in global demand

•

10% US$ appreciation

2015/01

2014/07

2014/01

2013/07

2013/01

2012/07

2012/01

2011/07

40 2011/01

US$/bbl

•

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 15

Oil

Booming US oil production in 2014 (+15%), slight decline in OPEC output Trends in crude oil production (Mt/year) 1600

1400 1200

USA

1000

Russia

Conventional

Saudi Arabia

800 600

Other OPEC

Unconventional

Other World

400 200 0 2011

2012

2013

2014 Source : Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 16

Oil

Oil demand continues to slightly increase • Oil demand growth in the G20 major countries (%/year)

Oil demand continues to slow down in BRICS: –

2nd successive drop in diesel consumption in China

–

Slowdown in Russia

–

Growth below historical average in India

2012-13

8%

2013-14 6%

2002-12

4% 2% 0%

•

-2%

-4% -6% -8%

% of G20 G20

42% 33% 17% G7

BRICS

6%

E.U.28 Russia

4% Brazil

16%

4%

25%

China S.Arabia

USA

6% India

6% Japan

Source: Enerdata

•

Decline in Europe and in Japan : –

Economic conjuncture

–

Energy efficiency improvement

Moving toward an upswing in US demand?

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 17

Gas

Gas: no growth in 2014 •

First time since 2001, except economical crisis – stable share in the energy mix

•

Europe: historical fall -11% (impact of warm

Gas demand growth in the G20 major countries (%/year) 16% 12%

10%

2012-13

8%

2013-14

6%

2002-12

climate on heating + coal competition)

4% 2%

•

0% -2%

growth in non-conventional gas production)

-4% -6% -12% -8%

USA: continuing development (impact of

% du G20

49%

30%

G20

G7

USA

17%

5%

29%

E.U.28 Japan

BRICS

7%

18%

2%

China

Russia

India

Source: Enerdata

•

Russia: 3rd year of stable or declining demand

•

China: slowdown, but a growth remains high – low share in energy mix

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 18

Gas

High impact of climate on gas consumption Climate impacts on gas consumption in 2014 6% Gas consumption

•

2014: warm winter, especially in Europe

•

This explains ½ of the slowdown in Europe

•

High impact in Asia (not always measured)

Gas consumption with climate corrections 2%

-2%

-6%

-10%

-14%

-18% E.U. 28

France

Germany

Italy

U.K.

S. Korea

Canada

USA

Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 19

Gas

Gas is competing with cheaper coal Trends in relative prices gas/coal in Europe 400%

300%

200%

01/03/2015

01/09/2014

01/03/2014

01/09/2013

01/03/2013

01/09/2012

01/03/2012

01/09/2011

01/03/2011

01/09/2010

01/03/2010

100%

Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 20

Coal

Decrease in coal consumption!

Coal demand growth in the G20 major countries (%/year)

12%

2012-13 2013-14 2002-12

8%

•

First drop in 15 years (except crisis): -0.7%

•

First decrease in China since 1999

•

Coal consumption drop in Europe (-6.3%) due to lower electricity consumption

•

Consumption fall in China almost offset by the increase in India

4% 0% -4% -8%

% of G20

G20

Mt

51%

G20 w/o China

China

70%

13%

17%

10%

BRICS

India

G7

USA

12% E.U.28

Source: Enerdata

Main contributions to the 2013/2014 coal consumption +95

7 550 7 500

+2

+0 -113

7 450

-52

7 400 7 350

49%

7 446

-9

-7

8 7 370

7 300 2013

India Brazil Japan China E.U.28 Russia USA Others 2014 Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 21

Electricity

Slowdown in power consumption growth Electricity demand growth in the G20 major countries (%/year) 14%

•

Only 1.2% hike for G20

•

Slowdown in China, though growth remains sustained

•

Strong increase in India (economic growth + lower capacity deficit)

•

Strong fall in Europe (weak economy + climate impact + energy efficiency)

2012-13

12%

2013-14

10%

2002-12

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

% of G20 G20

40% G7

43%

16%

28%

BRICS E.U.28

China

6% India

22% USA

5% Russia

5% Japan

Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 22

Electricity

Solar PV: steady investments with geographical rebalancing GW

Solar PV - installed capacities in 2014

40 35 30

Others

25

EU28

20

USA

15

Japan

10

India

5

China



target: 10 vs 14 GW)



Growth in Japan: +50% in new installations



Continuing dynamics in the USA



Significant slowdown in Europe

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 Source: Enerdata

GW 100

Cumulative installed PV capacity 2010

2011

2012

Steady investments in China (though below

2013

2014

80 60 40 20 0 EU28

China

USA

India

Japan Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 23

Electricity

Wind power: steady investment pace GW

Wind installed capacities in 2014

50

Others

40

EU28



+20 GW of new capacities installed in China (45% of world capacity additions) – a new record!



Market resumption in the USA



Surprise in Europe: wind market remains very dynamic despite falling subsidies



Brazil ranks 4th in terms of new installations (2.5 GW)

Brazil 30

USA Japan

20

India

10

China

0 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 Source: Enerdata

GW

Wind cumulative generation capacity

140

2010

120

2011

2012

2013

2014

100 80 60 40 20 0

EU28

China

USA

India Source: Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 24

Electricity

Various power mix evolutions depending on countries - illustrations In the long-term: • Europe: growth in renewable energy, oil and coal decline, no increase in gas • China: coal remains dominant • USA: coal decline, increase in gas and renewables

Power mix – UE 35% 30%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5%

0% Coal

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

REN

Source : Enerdata

Power mix - China

Power mix - USA

100%

50%

80%

2000

60%

2010

40% 20% 0% Coal

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

REN: including Hydro

REN

40% 30%

2013

20%

2014

10%

0% Coal

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

REN

Source : Enerdata

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 25

Part Two: Key Messages •

No significant change in the global energy mix

•

Oil markets shaken by evolutions in supply

•

Global energy consumption stabilisation is reflected everywhere: – 0 growth for gas, – Fall in coal consumption, – Slight increase in electricity consumption

•

Renewable investments remain dynamic and spread out globally

2014 Global Energy Trends – Enerdata - 26

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