How Nuclear Talks Help Iran Dominate the Middle East Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall, February 25, 2014 •
•
•
•
•
Iran is seeking to create symmetry in its relations with the United States and to make clear that Iranian power – like American power – extends far beyond its borders. Iran has even dispatched a “battle group” of ships toward the U.S. – consisting of a destroyer and a helicopter-carrying supply ship. The only U.S. policy that had proved successful – the tightening of the sanctions – is now falling apart. Iran’s international legitimacy is on the rebound, while the delegitimization of Israel keeps intensifying. From Iran’s standpoint, the nuclear talks are creating an atmosphere where the economic pressure will subside as Iran gains time to fill in the missing pieces of its nuclear program. Iran’s foreign policy is gaining momentum, as it seeks to persuade the Gulf states to align with it while they can still do so peacefully and come under its security umbrella. Iran hopes to wield power over the entire “event horizon” in the Islamic world of the Middle East and Central Asia in the period of the post-Arab Spring (or, as Iran puts it, the Islamic Awakening). The nuclear talks allow Iran to keep developing those parts of its nuclear program – essentially, the military component – that have not yet come to full fruition, while it makes “concessions” in areas such as uranium enrichment where it already has a proven capacity. Thus, Iran is hewing to its strategy of nuclear progress. Meanwhile, the lack of significant enemies in its geostrategic domain enables Iran to conduct the nuclear talks at a relaxed pace. That approach is only further encouraged by the ongoing, evident feebleness of the United States and the West in trying to resolve the Syrian crisis. Thus, Iran foresees no substantial danger as it keeps marching toward its strategic goals.
The Interim Nuclear Agreement: A Matter of Interpretation On February 18, 2014, about three months after the signing of the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group, talks began in Vienna on reaching a final agreement. Both Iran and various Western actors expressed pessimism, and there were increasing reports that the half-year allocated for arriving at a final agreement will not be sufficient. From the signing of the interim deal to the opening of the Vienna talks, Iran and the United States waged a verbal war over different interpretations of the deal’s terms and its future implications for the scope of Iran’s nuclear program. Not surprisingly, Washington highlighted its achievements in containing the program, while Iran pointed out – as domestic criticism of its concessions intensified – that it had “not agree[d] to dismantle anything”1 and that the word does not even appear in the agreement’s text. All Iran had consented to was to limit uranium enrichment to 5 percent. The holes and unclear wording in the nuclear deal have allowed Iran to make its own interpretation of many of its stipulations, while stalling and evading crucial issues such as strict supervision of certain elements of the program and the status of research and development once a permanent agreement is signed.
A Campaign of Media Deception Meanwhile, Iran has continued its charm offensive, led by its two “superstars,” President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. The two were especially in evidence at the economic conference in Davos and at the security conference in Munich. Both officials gave wide-ranging interviews to the Western media, which continues to portray them as heralds of a new Iranian approach that began when Rouhani was elected. Iran is essentially implementing a sophisticated media deception campaign, just as Rouhani is continuing to pursue nuclear deception. Having been a nuclear negotiator in 2003, Rouhani moved on to the presidency in 2013 and is prepared to lead Iran to the nuclear finish line. In one interview with the German media, Zarif implied that if the Palestinians were to reach an agreement with Israel, Iran would accept and even recognize Israel.2 These words were headlined in the world media