Kenneth Young: Climate change, people, and mountains

Climate Change, People, and Mountains

Kenneth R. Young Department of Geography and the Environment University of Texas at Aus>n kryoung@aus>n.utexas.edu

Cordillera Blanca

 Glaciers as environmental buffers  Changes in water supplies  Implications for biodiversity conservation  Implications for natural hazards

Cordillera Negra K. R. Young & J. K. Lipton. 2006. Adaptive governance and climate change in the tropical highlands of western South America. Climatic Change 78: 63-102

Expecta>ons for biodiversity, ecological zones, ecotones, agriculture  1) Biodiversity: Species  2) Biodiversity: Communi>es; Ecotones  3) Biodiversity: Ecosystems  4) Agrobiodiversity: Land use/Land cover

Biodiversity and climate change Species movements with climate change (Hole, Young, et al. SCOPE volume, 2011)

Separa>on of mutualists and other co-­‐dependent species Nasa aff. solata

Passiflora parvifolia

Looking for change . . .

The challenges of detec>ng subtle changes among species-­‐rich biotas

Asunción Cano, Blanca León, botanists, San Marcos University, Lima

Agricultural strategies that control risk at household and community levels Get shifting landscape mosaics

Species shifts Ecotone shifts Ecosystem alterations Land use adaptations

A Coupled Natural-Human System Biophysical factors: ↑ Temperature ↑ Carbon dioxide ↓ Precipitation ↑ Height cloud bank

Soils

Vegetation and land cover:

Species distributions Species abundances and mutualisms Ecosystem productivity, fluxes

Land use and livelihood practices: Perceptions of climate change Capacity to respond individually Capacity to respond collectively

K.R. Young. 2009. Andean land use and biodiversity: Humanized landscapes in a time of change. Annals Missouri Botanical Garden 96: 492-507

Landscape ecology of rural Andean landscapes  Land cover types: grasslands,

shrublands, forests, wetlands; croplands  Patches of fields, tree plan>ngs  Matrix of shrublands

Porlieria hygrometra Zygophyllaceae

Using Silverio & Jaquet (2009; J. Appl. Rem. Sensing) method of NDSI and NDVI on Landsat TM images, with elevational zones from DEM; NDVI=Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDSI=Normalized Difference Snow Index.

Huaraz

Primary Succession Park-People Conflicts Shrubland Encroachment Urban Expansion

Species movements in utilized landscapes with climate change (Hole, Young, et al. SCOPE volume, 2011)

Human water needs Environmental flows

Jeffrey Bury (PI), Mark Carey (Co-­‐PI), Bryan Mark (Co-­‐PI), Kenneth Young (Co-­‐PI); “Hydrologic Transformation and Human Resilience to Climate Change in the Peruvian Andes”; National Science Foundation, Dynamics of Coupled Human-­‐Natural Systems; Award #: 1010381.

Peak water model for the Cordillera Blanca

Results

Peak water

Baraer et al., 2012. Glacier recession and water resources in Perú’s Cordillera Blanca.

Journal of Glaciology, 58 (207).

Molly Polk and wetland change

Land Cover Change

Landsat TM

Data Processing

Watershed

Classifica4on

Wetland/Non-­‐ wetland

2000

2006

2011

• Wetlands: ini>al expansion, now at least some contrac>on • Glaciers: >25% loss in area • Hydrology: nonlinear rela>onship; valley-­‐to-­‐ valley differences; loss of important dry season flow

Figures 3 and 4; J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013. New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.

• Smallholder agriculture: 10% less rural popula>on (1970-­‐2000), total area cul>vated down 19% (1972-­‐2008) • Agriculture: less alfalfa, potatoes, barley, wheat; much more asparagus, sugar cane, rice • Mining: claims cover 52%; use water and hydroelectric resources; affect water quality • Potable water use: up 150%

J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013.

New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.

Antamina Mine

• Hydroelectric: Duke Energy Egenor, 264 megawais • Coastal irriga>on: from 7,500 to 174,000 ha (1958 to present)

Utilized lands and glacial cover in Santa River Basin, north-central Peru Map by Jeffrey Bury

Figure 1; J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013.

New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.

Biophysical

Socio-Economic -------------------------------------------------------Jeffrey Bury (PI), Mark Carey (Co-PI), Bryan Mark (CoPI), Kenneth Young (Co-PI); “Hydrologic Transformation and Human Resilience to Climate Change in the Peruvian Andes”; National Science Foundation, Dynamics of Coupled Human-Natural Systems; Award #: 1010381

Quelccaya, and other high Andean sites  Increase in size of

wetlands (temporary?)  New pasturelands as ice retreats  Smaller glaciers

Julio C. Postigo, 2012 Ph.D., “Responses of Plants, Pastoralists, and Governments to Social Environmental Changes in the Peruvian Southern Andes�

Human - Environment Interactions Global

Social-economic Processes

Biophysical Features

Ecosystem Service

Local

Social structures

PASTORALISM Land Use

Natural resources

Quelcaya Pastoralism and Climate Change

Global Mining Fiber price Policies Textile oligopoly

Droughts Freezing nights Ice/hail storms

Diminished Ecosystem Service

Community Extended family Household Local

PASTORALISM Overgrazing Degradation

Grassland Wetland Water

Conclusions  Need coupled human-­‐environment system

approach (at different scales)  Expect feedbacks and interactions (and may be asymmetrical)  Constraints are biophysical-­‐-­‐-­‐temperatures, glaciers, seasonality, fire  Constraints are socioeconomic-­‐-­‐-­‐institutions, livelihoods, land tenure  Trade-­‐offs-­‐-­‐-­‐carbon, water, biodiversity, natural hazards

kryoung@austin.utexas.edu

kryoung@austin.utexas.edu

Peru’s protected area system