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Climate  Change,   People,  and  Mountains  

Kenneth  R.  Young   Department  of  Geography  and  the  Environment   University  of  Texas  at  Aus>n   kryoung@aus>n.utexas.edu    


Cordillera Blanca

  Glaciers  as  environmental  buffers     Changes  in  water  supplies     Implications  for  biodiversity  conservation     Implications  for  natural  hazards          

Cordillera Negra K. R. Young & J. K. Lipton. 2006. Adaptive governance and climate change in the tropical highlands of western South America. Climatic Change 78: 63-102


Expecta>ons  for  biodiversity,  ecological  zones,   ecotones,  agriculture     1)  Biodiversity:  Species     2)  Biodiversity:  Communi>es;  Ecotones     3)  Biodiversity:  Ecosystems     4)  Agrobiodiversity:  Land  use/Land  cover  


Biodiversity  and  climate  change   Species  movements  with  climate  change  (Hole,  Young,  et  al.  SCOPE  volume,  2011)  


Separa>on  of  mutualists    and   other  co-­‐dependent  species   Nasa aff. solata

Passiflora parvifolia


Looking  for  change  .  .  .   The  challenges  of   detec>ng  subtle   changes  among   species-­‐rich  biotas  

Asunción Cano, Blanca León, botanists, San Marcos University, Lima


Agricultural strategies that control risk at household and community levels Get shifting landscape mosaics


Species shifts Ecotone shifts Ecosystem alterations Land use adaptations


A Coupled Natural-Human System Biophysical factors: ↑ Temperature ↑ Carbon dioxide ↓ Precipitation ↑ Height cloud bank

Soils

Vegetation and land cover:

Species distributions Species abundances and mutualisms Ecosystem productivity, fluxes

Land use and livelihood practices: Perceptions of climate change Capacity to respond individually Capacity to respond collectively

K.R. Young. 2009. Andean land use and biodiversity: Humanized landscapes in a time of change. Annals Missouri Botanical Garden 96: 492-507


Landscape  ecology  of  rural  Andean  landscapes     Land  cover  types:  grasslands,  

shrublands,  forests,  wetlands;   croplands     Patches  of  fields,  tree  plan>ngs     Matrix  of  shrublands  

Porlieria   hygrometra   Zygophyllaceae  


Using Silverio & Jaquet (2009; J. Appl. Rem. Sensing) method of NDSI and NDVI on Landsat TM images, with elevational zones from DEM; NDVI=Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDSI=Normalized Difference Snow Index.


Huaraz

Primary Succession Park-People Conflicts Shrubland Encroachment Urban Expansion


Species movements in utilized landscapes with climate change (Hole, Young, et al. SCOPE volume, 2011)

Human water needs Environmental flows


Jeffrey  Bury  (PI),  Mark  Carey  (Co-­‐PI),  Bryan  Mark   (Co-­‐PI),  Kenneth  Young  (Co-­‐PI);  “Hydrologic   Transformation  and  Human  Resilience  to   Climate  Change  in  the  Peruvian  Andes”;   National  Science  Foundation,  Dynamics  of  Coupled   Human-­‐Natural  Systems;  Award  #:  1010381.    


Peak  water  model  for  the  Cordillera  Blanca  


Results  

Peak  water  

Baraer  et  al.,  2012.  Glacier  recession  and  water  resources  in  Perú’s  Cordillera  Blanca.   Journal  of  Glaciology,  58  (207).  


Molly  Polk  and  wetland   change  


Land  Cover  Change  

Landsat  TM         Data     Processing       Watershed           Classifica4on       Wetland/Non-­‐ wetland      

2000  

2006  

2011  

   

   

   


•  Wetlands:    ini>al   expansion,  now  at  least   some  contrac>on   •  Glaciers:    >25%  loss  in   area   •  Hydrology:  nonlinear   rela>onship;  valley-­‐to-­‐ valley  differences;  loss  of   important  dry  season   flow    

Figures 3 and 4; J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013. New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.


•  Smallholder  agriculture:  10%   less  rural  popula>on   (1970-­‐2000),  total  area   cul>vated  down  19%   (1972-­‐2008)   •  Agriculture:  less  alfalfa,   potatoes,  barley,  wheat;  much   more  asparagus,  sugar  cane,   rice   •  Mining:  claims  cover  52%;  use   water  and  hydroelectric   resources;  affect  water  quality   •  Potable  water  use:  up  150%  

 

J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013. New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.

Antamina Mine


•  Hydroelectric:  Duke   Energy  Egenor,  264   megawais   •  Coastal  irriga>on:   from  7,500  to  174,000   ha  (1958  to  present)  


Utilized lands and glacial cover in Santa River Basin, north-central Peru Map by Jeffrey Bury

Figure 1; J. Bury, B. G. Mark, M. Carey, K. R. Young, J. McKenzie, M. Baraer, A. French, and M. H. Polk. 2013. New geographies of water and climate change in Peru: Coupled natural and social transformations in the Santa River watershed. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 363-374.


Biophysical

Socio-Economic -------------------------------------------------------Jeffrey Bury (PI), Mark Carey (Co-PI), Bryan Mark (CoPI), Kenneth Young (Co-PI); “Hydrologic Transformation and Human Resilience to Climate Change in the Peruvian Andes”; National Science Foundation, Dynamics of Coupled Human-Natural Systems; Award #: 1010381


Quelccaya,  and   other  high   Andean  sites     Increase  in  size  of  

wetlands  (temporary?)     New  pasturelands  as   ice  retreats     Smaller  glaciers    


Julio C. Postigo, 2012 Ph.D., “Responses of Plants, Pastoralists, and Governments to Social Environmental Changes in the Peruvian Southern Andes�


Human - Environment Interactions Global

Social-economic Processes

Biophysical Features

Ecosystem Service

Local

Social structures

PASTORALISM Land Use

Natural resources


Quelcaya Pastoralism and Climate Change

Global Mining Fiber price Policies Textile oligopoly

Droughts Freezing nights Ice/hail storms

Diminished Ecosystem Service

Community Extended family Household Local

PASTORALISM Overgrazing Degradation

Grassland Wetland Water


Conclusions     Need  coupled  human-­‐environment  system  

approach  (at  different  scales)     Expect  feedbacks  and  interactions  (and  may  be   asymmetrical)     Constraints  are  biophysical-­‐-­‐-­‐temperatures,   glaciers,  seasonality,  fire     Constraints  are  socioeconomic-­‐-­‐-­‐institutions,   livelihoods,  land  tenure     Trade-­‐offs-­‐-­‐-­‐carbon,  water,  biodiversity,  natural   hazards  


kryoung@austin.utexas.edu


kryoung@austin.utexas.edu


Peru’s protected area system



Kenneth Young: Climate change, people, and mountains