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High Mountain Glacial Watershed Program


Glacial Flooding & DRR Knowledge Exchange 
 & Field Training
 July 11-24, 2013
 Huaraz, Peru

Kamal Bawa Reinmar Seidler

Climate Change in Kanchenjunga TCA: Vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities

ATREE University of Massachusetts Boston

Eastern Himalayas Programme


Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment

To promote

Mission:

socially just environmental conservation and sustainable development by generating rigorous interdisciplinary knowledge that engages actively with academia, policy makers, practitioners, students and wider public audiences Eastern Himalayas Programme


Environmental quality   Economic  support   Social  equity   …Contradictory  or  complementary   goals?  


Where we work

•  19  Faculty     •   2  visi/ng  Fellows   •   40  research  staff   •   6  field  coordinators   •   30  support  staff   •   35  PhD  students     •   25  field  staff  


ATREE-Eastern Himalaya Program: 
 an integrated approach 1.  Sustainable livelihoods: Field implementation & demonstration (agriculture, apiary, NTFPs, marketing…) 2.  Biodiversity and ecosystem services: Mapping & monitoring in the context of global change (incl. climate…)

3.  Policy and governance for natural resources 4.  Capacity building

7


What do  we  know  about  climate   changes  in  Himalayas  so  far?  


Changes in temperature, Himalayan eco-regions 1982-2006

Overall: 1.5°C   (0.06°C/yr)     Winter:  1.75°C   (0.07°C/yr)   Summer:  0.75°C   (0.03°C/yr)     Extremes:     BVSEF:  2.0°C   NTTF:  0.25°C    

Shrestha and Bawa 2012, PLoS ONE


Results, temperature  1982-­‐2006:   •  Overall  +1.5°C     •  Average  rate  +0.06°C/yr   •  Rates  of  warming  vary  by  season   –  Winter  +1.75°C,  average  +0.07°C/yr     –  Summer  +0.75°C,  average  +0.03°C/yr  

•  and by  eco-­‐region   –  Brahmaputra  Valley  Semi-­‐Evergreen  Forest   +2.0°C.     –  Northern  Triangle  Temperate  Forest  +0.25°C  


Mean annual   precipita/on   increase:     163  mm     (6.5mm/yr)     Summer:     +187  mm     (+7.5mm/yr)   (June-­‐Aug)     Winter:       -­‐17  mm     (-­‐20.7mm/yr)   (Dec-­‐Feb)     Extremes:   BVSEF:  269mm   (10.8mm/yr)       NTTF:     -­‐130.5mm     (-­‐5.2mm/yr)  

Changes in precipitation, Himalayan eco-regions 1982-2006

Shrestha and Bawa 2012


Results, precipitaXon  1982-­‐2006  :   •  Average  annual  precipitaXon  +163  mm  (+6.5   mm/yr)   •  But:  increase  of  +187  mm  (+7.5  mm/yr)  in   summer  (June-­‐Aug)   •  decrease  of  -­‐17  mm  (-­‐20.7  mm/yr)  in  winter   (Dec-­‐Feb)   •  Greater  within-­‐year  variaXon  


Changes in phenology in the Himalayas 1982-2006 Shrestha and Bawa 2012

•  The average start of growing season (SOS) has advanced by 4.7 days (0.2 days/yr) 1982-2006 •  End of growing season (EOS) shows little change

Therefore, LOS shows lengthening of the growing season by 4.7 days over 25 yrs


Study sites   •  Darjeeling  Hills  (W.  Bengal)  district:  20  villages   –  Singalila  Nat  Pk   –  Senchal  Wildlife  Sanctuary  

•  North Sikkim  district:  10  villages   •  Ilam  district,  E.  Nepal:  5  villages   •  Range  of  environmental,  cultural  and  poliXcal   contexts  


Dilpa Forest Village, SNP


Gorkhay Forest Village, SNP


Local perceptions of climate-related changes in & around SNP (E. Nepal & Darjeeling District, India) Chaudhary &  Bawa  2011,  Biol  Le0  

P<0.1

Over all   warming  

P<0.01

Early onset   summer  

Perceived change  

n.s. P<0.001  

Early onset   monsoon   No  change  

Less snow  

P<0.1

Drying of     water  sources   Don’t  know    

Lee bars  =  Low  alXtude  (~1500m,  127  HHs);  Right  bars  =  High  alXtude  (>2100m,  123  HHs)  


Local perceptions of climate-related changes in & around SNP (E. Nepal & Darjeeling District, India) Chaudhary &  Bawa  2011  

P<0.001

Perceived change

P<0.001

P<0.001

No change

P<0.001

Don’t know

Left bar = Low altitude (~1500m, 127 HHs); Right bar = High altitude (>2100m, 123 HHs)


Lachen Valley,  N.  Sikkim  


Gurudongmar Lake  (5210m),  above  Lachen,  N.  Sikkim  


Indigenous communi/es  of  Lachen  and  Lhonak  valley  

Dokpas-­‐ 3800m    and  up    

Lachenpas-­‐2000m to  ~3800m    


Comparison of  changes  observed  by  two   communi/es  at  different  al/tudes,  Sikkim   120   100   80   60   40   20   0  

Lachenpa Dokpa  

Ingty et al 2012


Explana/ons given  for  observed  changes   Lachenpa   60   50   40  

Dokpa 120  

100

80

30

60

20

40

10

20

0

0

Ingty et al 2012


How to  sort  out  varying   percepXons  of  risk?  


Risk prioriXzaXon  pamerns  for  several  stakeholder  groups  in     Indian  E.  Himalaya     Group   Forest  villagers   (SNP)  

Risk priority  1  

Risk priority  2  

Risk priority  3  

Transport costs   (road  connecXvity)  

Crop &  livestock   diseases  

Khasmal villagers   HWC??   (SNP)  

Transport costs   (road  connecXvity)  

Crop &  livestock   diseases  

Dzumsa villagers     Landslide  control   (N  Sikkim)  

Road connecXvity,   maintenance  

Army restricXons   (grazing  &  NTFP)  

HWC

Tourism industry  

Road connecXvity,   maintenance  

??

??

Traders

Road connecXvity,   maintenance  

??

??

Social ac/vists  

Dam construcXon  

Road safety  

??

Road connecXvity,   maintenance  

??

Dam construc/on   Progress  in   hydropower   companies   Military  

Road connecXvity,   maintenance  

??

??


Road network  –  apparently  a     near-­‐universal  concern   •  QuanXty   –  LocaXon?   –  How  soon?    

•  Quality –  Earthquake  preparedness?   –  Landslide  preparedness?   –  Climate  change??  

…CONSENSUS? …TRADE-­‐OFFS?  


N. Sikkim,  Sept  2011  


Frequency of  landslides  per  decade,  and  the   associated  mortality  rates  (all  Asia)  

FAO 2013  


FataliXes in   landslides  

Growth in  the   number  of   landslide  fataliXes   recorded  in  the  3   terrain  areas  of   Nepal  over  ~40   years  

Fatal landslides  

Petley et   al  2007  


Expansion of  the  rural  road  network     in  Nepal,  1975-­‐2005  

Petley et   al  2007  


Trade-­‐offs? Road  network  is  a  nexus  of  the  ‘triple  bomom-­‐line’…     •  Environmental  quality  concerns   –  Need  for  EIA,  zoning   –  Design  &  construcXon  …  

•  Economic sXmulus  concerns   –  ConnecXvity   –  Transport  cost  reducXon  …  

•  Social equity  concerns   –  Bemer  access  to  services   –  ReducXon  in  daily  drudgery  …  


Trade-­‐offs? •  Frequently  result  of  poor  implementaXon,   short-­‐term  planning  horizons   •  Many  desired  goals  can  support  one  another…   WORKING  HYPOTHESIS:   Disaster  Risk  ReducXon  (DRR)                                                                                                                            pre-­‐requisite  for   Climate  Change  AdaptaXon  (CCA)                                                                                                                                                                                                pre-­‐requisite  for  

“Sustainable Landscape  Development”  (SLD)  


Trade-­‐offs •  DRR:  reacXve  vs  proacXve   •  CCA:  long-­‐term  view;  planning;  investments   •  SLD:  dependent  on  taking  long-­‐term  view;   may  even  be  the  long-­‐term  view!  


Can we  find  leverage  points   to  influence  policy?  


MGNREGA:

Mahatma Gandhi  NaXonal  Rural  Employment   Guarantee  Act,  2005  

•  Guarantees 100  days  work/hh/yr  at  fixed  wage   •  CreaXon  of  common  assets  for  rural   communiXes   •  Gender  equity  in  opportunity  &  pay   •  Hand  labor,  avoiding  use  of  large  machinery   •  Emphasis  on  land  improvement,  water  supply   •  ≤10%  road  projects  


MGNREGA projects: Darjeeling 2013-14 Projects in progress  

Projects completed

2454

10

913.91

1208.31

Flood control

721

1

144.09

413.01

Land development

718

4

168.78

228.62

Drought-proofing

315

0

59.44

11.37

Water harvesting

162

0

28.71

100.29

Irrigation

115

0

14.97

42.8

18

0

0.9

19.53

Project type Rural connectivity  

Trad. water bodies

Labour (Rs lakhs)

Material (Rs lakhs)


MGNREGA projects: North Sikkim 2012-13 Project type  

No. projects

Labour (Rs lakhs)

Material (Rs lakhs)

Rural connectivity

92

336.17

71.41

Land development

91

169.15

200.32

Flood control

47

177.96

37.76

Drought-proofing

6

4.79

0

Water harvesting

0

0

0

Irrigation

6

21.02

8.49

Trad. water bodies

0

0

0


Improving composite  vulnerability  indices  for  5   villages  in  South  Sikkim  with  non-­‐road  NREGA  projects  

Ravindranath (IIS)  et  al  2013    


ATREE next  steps  

1) HWC  in  forest  &  khasmal  villages  (SNP)    

Wild boar  &  barking  deer   depredaXon  on  maize  &  potato   crops  in  Singalila  Nat  Pk  forest   villages  

From Rai  et  al   2013  


ATREE next  steps   2)  Fuel,  fodder  &  water  use  hh  measurements   •  Focus  on  tourist  routes  &  faciliXes  (SNP  &  N  Sikkim)   •  Army  posts  (SNP  &  N  Sikkim)   •  Rural-­‐to-­‐urban  resource  flow  


Bio-­‐ resource mapping  

Lachen Valley, N. Sikkim (T. Ingty)


Sandakphu, Singalila  Na/onal  Park  (3600m)  


ATREE next  steps   3)  Improved  Cook  Stoves  (ICS)  program  expansion   (SNP)   •  •  •  • 

TesXng fuel  efficiency  (different  seasons  &  uses)   TesXng  indoor  parXculate  emissions   Training  in  construcXon,  maintenance   Scaling  up  distribuXon/sales  


ICS program  


Before ICS…  


… Aeer  ICS  


Thank you

Reinmar Seidler: Climate change in Kangchenjunga vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities  

Slides for presentation given to High Mountains Adaptation Partnership in Huaraz, Peru on 13 July 2013.

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