Reinmar Seidler: Climate change in Kangchenjunga vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities

High Mountain Glacial Watershed Program

Glacial Flooding & DRR Knowledge Exchange & Field Training July 11-24, 2013 Huaraz, Peru

Kamal Bawa Reinmar Seidler

Climate Change in Kanchenjunga TCA: Vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities

ATREE University of Massachusetts Boston

Eastern Himalayas Programme

Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment

To promote

Mission:

socially just environmental conservation and sustainable development by generating rigorous interdisciplinary knowledge that engages actively with academia, policy makers, practitioners, students and wider public audiences

Eastern Himalayas Programme

Environmental quality Economic support Social equity …Contradictory or complementary goals?

Where we work

• 19 Faculty • 2 visi/ng Fellows • 40 research staff • 6 field coordinators • 30 support staff • 35 PhD students • 25 field staff

ATREE-Eastern Himalaya Program: an integrated approach 1. Sustainable livelihoods: Field implementation & demonstration (agriculture, apiary, NTFPs, marketing…)

2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services: Mapping & monitoring in the context of global change (incl. climate…)

3. Policy and governance for natural resources 4. Capacity building

7

What do we know about climate changes in Himalayas so far?

Changes in temperature, Himalayan eco-regions 1982-2006

Overall: 1.5°C (0.06°C/yr)

Winter: 1.75°C (0.07°C/yr) Summer: 0.75°C (0.03°C/yr)

Extremes: BVSEF: 2.0°C NTTF: 0.25°C

Shrestha and Bawa 2012, PLoS ONE

Results, temperature 1982-­‐2006: • Overall +1.5°C • Average rate +0.06°C/yr • Rates of warming vary by season – Winter +1.75°C, average +0.07°C/yr – Summer +0.75°C, average +0.03°C/yr

• and by eco-­‐region – Brahmaputra Valley Semi-­‐Evergreen Forest +2.0°C. – Northern Triangle Temperate Forest +0.25°C

Mean annual precipita/on increase: 163 mm (6.5mm/yr)

Summer: +187 mm (+7.5mm/yr) (June-­‐Aug)

Winter: -­‐17 mm (-­‐20.7mm/yr) (Dec-­‐Feb)

Extremes: BVSEF: 269mm (10.8mm/yr)

NTTF: -­‐130.5mm (-­‐5.2mm/yr)

Changes in precipitation, Himalayan eco-regions 1982-2006

Shrestha and Bawa 2012

Results, precipitaXon 1982-­‐2006 : • Average annual precipitaXon +163 mm (+6.5 mm/yr) • But: increase of +187 mm (+7.5 mm/yr) in summer (June-­‐Aug) • decrease of -­‐17 mm (-­‐20.7 mm/yr) in winter (Dec-­‐Feb) • Greater within-­‐year variaXon

Changes in phenology in the Himalayas 1982-2006 Shrestha and Bawa 2012

• The average start of growing season (SOS) has advanced by 4.7 days (0.2 days/yr) 1982-2006 • End of growing season (EOS) shows little change

Therefore, LOS shows lengthening of the growing season by 4.7 days over 25 yrs

Study sites • Darjeeling Hills (W. Bengal) district: 20 villages – Singalila Nat Pk – Senchal Wildlife Sanctuary

• North Sikkim district: 10 villages • Ilam district, E. Nepal: 5 villages • Range of environmental, cultural and poliXcal contexts

Dilpa Forest Village, SNP

Gorkhay Forest Village, SNP

Local perceptions of climate-related changes in & around SNP (E. Nepal & Darjeeling District, India) Chaudhary & Bawa 2011, Biol Le0

P<0.1

Over all warming

P<0.01

Early onset summer

Perceived change

n.s.

P<0.001

Early onset monsoon No change

Less snow

P<0.1

Drying of water sources Don’t know

Lee bars = Low alXtude (~1500m, 127 HHs); Right bars = High alXtude (>2100m, 123 HHs)

Local perceptions of climate-related changes in & around SNP (E. Nepal & Darjeeling District, India) Chaudhary & Bawa 2011

P<0.001

Perceived change

P<0.001

P<0.001

No change

P<0.001

Don’t know

Left bar = Low altitude (~1500m, 127 HHs); Right bar = High altitude (>2100m, 123 HHs)

Lachen Valley, N. Sikkim

Gurudongmar Lake (5210m), above Lachen, N. Sikkim

Indigenous communi/es of Lachen and Lhonak valley

Dokpas-­‐ 3800m and up

Lachenpas-­‐2000m to ~3800m

Comparison of changes observed by two communi/es at different al/tudes, Sikkim 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Lachenpa Dokpa

Ingty et al 2012

Explana/ons given for observed changes Lachenpa 60 50 40

Dokpa 120

100

80

30

60

20

40

10

20

0

0

Ingty et al 2012

How to sort out varying percepXons of risk?

Risk prioriXzaXon pamerns for several stakeholder groups in Indian E. Himalaya Group Forest villagers (SNP)

Risk priority 1

Risk priority 2

Risk priority 3

Transport costs (road connecXvity)

Crop & livestock diseases

Khasmal villagers HWC??

(SNP)

Transport costs (road connecXvity)

Crop & livestock diseases

Dzumsa villagers Landslide control (N Sikkim)

Road connecXvity, maintenance

Army restricXons (grazing & NTFP)

HWC

Tourism industry

Road connecXvity, maintenance

??

??

Traders

Road connecXvity, maintenance

??

??

Social ac/vists

Dam construcXon

Road safety

??

Road connecXvity, maintenance

??

Dam construc/on Progress in hydropower companies Military

Road connecXvity, maintenance

??

??

Road network – apparently a near-­‐universal concern • QuanXty – LocaXon? – How soon?

• Quality – Earthquake preparedness?

– Landslide preparedness?

– Climate change??

…CONSENSUS? …TRADE-­‐OFFS?

N. Sikkim, Sept 2011

Frequency of landslides per decade, and the associated mortality rates (all Asia)

FAO 2013

FataliXes in landslides

Growth in the number of landslide fataliXes recorded in the 3 terrain areas of Nepal over ~40 years

Fatal landslides

Petley et al 2007

Expansion of the rural road network in Nepal, 1975-­‐2005

Petley et al 2007

Trade-­‐offs?

Road network is a nexus of the ‘triple bomom-­‐line’…

• Environmental quality concerns – Need for EIA, zoning – Design & construcXon …

• Economic sXmulus concerns – ConnecXvity – Transport cost reducXon …

• Social equity concerns – Bemer access to services – ReducXon in daily drudgery …

Trade-­‐offs?

• Frequently result of poor implementaXon, short-­‐term planning horizons • Many desired goals can support one another…

WORKING HYPOTHESIS: Disaster Risk ReducXon (DRR) pre-­‐requisite for Climate Change AdaptaXon (CCA) pre-­‐requisite for

“Sustainable Landscape Development” (SLD)

Trade-­‐offs • DRR: reacXve vs proacXve • CCA: long-­‐term view; planning; investments • SLD: dependent on taking long-­‐term view; may even be the long-­‐term view!

Can we find leverage points to influence policy?

MGNREGA:

Mahatma Gandhi NaXonal Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005

• Guarantees 100 days work/hh/yr at fixed wage • CreaXon of common assets for rural communiXes • Gender equity in opportunity & pay • Hand labor, avoiding use of large machinery • Emphasis on land improvement, water supply • ≤10% road projects

MGNREGA projects: Darjeeling 2013-14 Projects in progress

Projects completed

2454

10

913.91

1208.31

Flood control

721

1

144.09

413.01

Land development

718

4

168.78

228.62

Drought-proofing

315

0

59.44

11.37

Water harvesting

162

0

28.71

100.29

Irrigation

115

0

14.97

42.8

18

0

0.9

19.53

Project type Rural connectivity

Trad. water bodies

Labour (Rs lakhs)

Material (Rs lakhs)

MGNREGA projects: North Sikkim 2012-13 Project type

No. projects

Labour (Rs lakhs)

Material (Rs lakhs)

Rural connectivity

92

336.17

71.41

Land development

91

169.15

200.32

Flood control

47

177.96

37.76

Drought-proofing

6

4.79

0

Water harvesting

0

0

0

Irrigation

6

21.02

8.49

Trad. water bodies

0

0

0

Improving composite vulnerability indices for 5 villages in South Sikkim with non-­‐road NREGA projects

Ravindranath (IIS) et al 2013

ATREE next steps

1) HWC in forest & khasmal villages (SNP)

Wild boar & barking deer depredaXon on maize & potato crops in Singalila Nat Pk forest villages

From Rai et al 2013

ATREE next steps 2) Fuel, fodder & water use hh measurements • Focus on tourist routes & faciliXes (SNP & N Sikkim) • Army posts (SNP & N Sikkim) • Rural-­‐to-­‐urban resource flow

Bio-­‐ resource mapping

Lachen Valley, N. Sikkim (T. Ingty)

Sandakphu, Singalila Na/onal Park (3600m)

ATREE next steps 3) Improved Cook Stoves (ICS) program expansion (SNP) • • • •

TesXng fuel efficiency (different seasons & uses) TesXng indoor parXculate emissions Training in construcXon, maintenance Scaling up distribuXon/sales

ICS program

Before ICS…

… Aeer ICS

Thank you