High Mountain Glacial Watershed Program
Glacial Flooding & DRR Knowledge Exchange & Field Training July 11-24, 2013 Huaraz, Peru
Kamal Bawa Reinmar Seidler
Climate Change in Kanchenjunga TCA: Vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities
ATREE University of Massachusetts Boston
Eastern Himalayas Programme
Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment
To promote
Mission:
socially just environmental conservation and sustainable development by generating rigorous interdisciplinary knowledge that engages actively with academia, policy makers, practitioners, students and wider public audiences Eastern Himalayas Programme
Environmental quality Economic support Social equity …Contradictory or complementary goals?
Where we work
• 19 Faculty • 2 visi/ng Fellows • 40 research staff • 6 field coordinators • 30 support staff • 35 PhD students • 25 field staff
ATREE-Eastern Himalaya Program: an integrated approach 1. Sustainable livelihoods: Field implementation & demonstration (agriculture, apiary, NTFPs, marketing…) 2. Biodiversity and ecosystem services: Mapping & monitoring in the context of global change (incl. climate…)
3. Policy and governance for natural resources 4. Capacity building
7
What do we know about climate changes in Himalayas so far?
Changes in temperature, Himalayan eco-regions 1982-2006
Overall: 1.5°C (0.06°C/yr) Winter: 1.75°C (0.07°C/yr) Summer: 0.75°C (0.03°C/yr) Extremes: BVSEF: 2.0°C NTTF: 0.25°C
Shrestha and Bawa 2012, PLoS ONE
Results, temperature 1982-‐2006: • Overall +1.5°C • Average rate +0.06°C/yr • Rates of warming vary by season – Winter +1.75°C, average +0.07°C/yr – Summer +0.75°C, average +0.03°C/yr
• and by eco-‐region – Brahmaputra Valley Semi-‐Evergreen Forest +2.0°C. – Northern Triangle Temperate Forest +0.25°C
Mean annual precipita/on increase: 163 mm (6.5mm/yr) Summer: +187 mm (+7.5mm/yr) (June-‐Aug) Winter: -‐17 mm (-‐20.7mm/yr) (Dec-‐Feb) Extremes: BVSEF: 269mm (10.8mm/yr) NTTF: -‐130.5mm (-‐5.2mm/yr)
Changes in precipitation, Himalayan eco-regions 1982-2006
Shrestha and Bawa 2012
Results, precipitaXon 1982-‐2006 : • Average annual precipitaXon +163 mm (+6.5 mm/yr) • But: increase of +187 mm (+7.5 mm/yr) in summer (June-‐Aug) • decrease of -‐17 mm (-‐20.7 mm/yr) in winter (Dec-‐Feb) • Greater within-‐year variaXon
Changes in phenology in the Himalayas 1982-2006 Shrestha and Bawa 2012
• The average start of growing season (SOS) has advanced by 4.7 days (0.2 days/yr) 1982-2006 • End of growing season (EOS) shows little change
Therefore, LOS shows lengthening of the growing season by 4.7 days over 25 yrs
Study sites • Darjeeling Hills (W. Bengal) district: 20 villages – Singalila Nat Pk – Senchal Wildlife Sanctuary
• North Sikkim district: 10 villages • Ilam district, E. Nepal: 5 villages • Range of environmental, cultural and poliXcal contexts
Dilpa Forest Village, SNP
Gorkhay Forest Village, SNP
Local perceptions of climate-related changes in & around SNP (E. Nepal & Darjeeling District, India) Chaudhary & Bawa 2011, Biol Le0
P<0.1
Over all warming
P<0.01
Early onset summer
Perceived change
n.s. P<0.001
Early onset monsoon No change
Less snow
P<0.1
Drying of water sources Don’t know
Lee bars = Low alXtude (~1500m, 127 HHs); Right bars = High alXtude (>2100m, 123 HHs)
Local perceptions of climate-related changes in & around SNP (E. Nepal & Darjeeling District, India) Chaudhary & Bawa 2011
P<0.001
Perceived change
P<0.001
P<0.001
No change
P<0.001
Don’t know
Left bar = Low altitude (~1500m, 127 HHs); Right bar = High altitude (>2100m, 123 HHs)
Lachen Valley, N. Sikkim
Gurudongmar Lake (5210m), above Lachen, N. Sikkim
Indigenous communi/es of Lachen and Lhonak valley
Dokpas-‐ 3800m and up
Lachenpas-‐2000m to ~3800m
Comparison of changes observed by two communi/es at different al/tudes, Sikkim 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Lachenpa Dokpa
Ingty et al 2012
Explana/ons given for observed changes Lachenpa 60 50 40
Dokpa 120
100
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
Ingty et al 2012
How to sort out varying percepXons of risk?
Risk prioriXzaXon pamerns for several stakeholder groups in Indian E. Himalaya Group Forest villagers (SNP)
Risk priority 1
Risk priority 2
Risk priority 3
Transport costs (road connecXvity)
Crop & livestock diseases
Khasmal villagers HWC?? (SNP)
Transport costs (road connecXvity)
Crop & livestock diseases
Dzumsa villagers Landslide control (N Sikkim)
Road connecXvity, maintenance
Army restricXons (grazing & NTFP)
HWC
Tourism industry
Road connecXvity, maintenance
??
??
Traders
Road connecXvity, maintenance
??
??
Social ac/vists
Dam construcXon
Road safety
??
Road connecXvity, maintenance
??
Dam construc/on Progress in hydropower companies Military
Road connecXvity, maintenance
??
??
Road network – apparently a near-‐universal concern • QuanXty – LocaXon? – How soon?
• Quality – Earthquake preparedness? – Landslide preparedness? – Climate change??
…CONSENSUS? …TRADE-‐OFFS?
N. Sikkim, Sept 2011
Frequency of landslides per decade, and the associated mortality rates (all Asia)
FAO 2013
FataliXes in landslides
Growth in the number of landslide fataliXes recorded in the 3 terrain areas of Nepal over ~40 years
Fatal landslides
Petley et al 2007
Expansion of the rural road network in Nepal, 1975-‐2005
Petley et al 2007
Trade-‐offs? Road network is a nexus of the ‘triple bomom-‐line’… • Environmental quality concerns – Need for EIA, zoning – Design & construcXon …
• Economic sXmulus concerns – ConnecXvity – Transport cost reducXon …
• Social equity concerns – Bemer access to services – ReducXon in daily drudgery …
Trade-‐offs? • Frequently result of poor implementaXon, short-‐term planning horizons • Many desired goals can support one another… WORKING HYPOTHESIS: Disaster Risk ReducXon (DRR) pre-‐requisite for Climate Change AdaptaXon (CCA) pre-‐requisite for
“Sustainable Landscape Development” (SLD)
Trade-‐offs • DRR: reacXve vs proacXve • CCA: long-‐term view; planning; investments • SLD: dependent on taking long-‐term view; may even be the long-‐term view!
Can we find leverage points to influence policy?
MGNREGA:
Mahatma Gandhi NaXonal Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005
• Guarantees 100 days work/hh/yr at fixed wage • CreaXon of common assets for rural communiXes • Gender equity in opportunity & pay • Hand labor, avoiding use of large machinery • Emphasis on land improvement, water supply • ≤10% road projects
MGNREGA projects: Darjeeling 2013-14 Projects in progress
Projects completed
2454
10
913.91
1208.31
Flood control
721
1
144.09
413.01
Land development
718
4
168.78
228.62
Drought-proofing
315
0
59.44
11.37
Water harvesting
162
0
28.71
100.29
Irrigation
115
0
14.97
42.8
18
0
0.9
19.53
Project type Rural connectivity
Trad. water bodies
Labour (Rs lakhs)
Material (Rs lakhs)
MGNREGA projects: North Sikkim 2012-13 Project type
No. projects
Labour (Rs lakhs)
Material (Rs lakhs)
Rural connectivity
92
336.17
71.41
Land development
91
169.15
200.32
Flood control
47
177.96
37.76
Drought-proofing
6
4.79
0
Water harvesting
0
0
0
Irrigation
6
21.02
8.49
Trad. water bodies
0
0
0
Improving composite vulnerability indices for 5 villages in South Sikkim with non-‐road NREGA projects
Ravindranath (IIS) et al 2013
ATREE next steps
1) HWC in forest & khasmal villages (SNP)
Wild boar & barking deer depredaXon on maize & potato crops in Singalila Nat Pk forest villages
From Rai et al 2013
ATREE next steps 2) Fuel, fodder & water use hh measurements • Focus on tourist routes & faciliXes (SNP & N Sikkim) • Army posts (SNP & N Sikkim) • Rural-‐to-‐urban resource flow
Bio-‐ resource mapping
Lachen Valley, N. Sikkim (T. Ingty)
Sandakphu, Singalila Na/onal Park (3600m)
ATREE next steps 3) Improved Cook Stoves (ICS) program expansion (SNP) • • • •
TesXng fuel efficiency (different seasons & uses) TesXng indoor parXculate emissions Training in construcXon, maintenance Scaling up distribuXon/sales
ICS program
Before ICS…
… Aeer ICS
Thank you
Published on Sep 27, 2013
Slides for presentation given to High Mountains Adaptation Partnership in Huaraz, Peru on 13 July 2013.
Published on Sep 27, 2013
Slides for presentation given to High Mountains Adaptation Partnership in Huaraz, Peru on 13 July 2013.