BD Moldobekov: Monitoring glacier systems in Kyrgyzstan under climate change and related geo-risks

Central Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences

Monitoring and study of glacier systems in Kyrgyzstan under conditions of climate change and related geo-hazards B.D.Moldobekov, R.A.Usubaliev July 11-24, 2013 Huaraz, Peru

Glaciation of mountain ranges in Kyrgyzstan (according to V.A.Kuzmichenko)

Representa<ve glaciers in Kyrgyzstan which are monitored

Adygene glacier

Golubin glacier

л-­‐к Кара-­‐Баткак

West Suek glacier

Enilchek glacier

Ak-­‐Shiyrak glacier

Abramov glacier

objects of CAIAG’s research

objects of research by other organisa6ons

Time varia6on of average annual temperature of air at weather sta6on “Tien-­‐ Shan”

Time varia6on of average annual amount of precipita6on at weather sta6on “Tien-­‐Shan”

The pictures show that 6me varia6ons of main clima6c elements (temperatures of air and precipita6on) at Tien-­‐ Shan are asynchronous which are adverse to posi6ve development of present glacia6on

y = Основнойx -­‐ Основной R² = Основной

МС "Тянь-­‐Шань" температура воздуха, в град.

Linear (МС "Тянь-­‐Шань" температура воздуха, в град.)

y = -­‐Основнойx + Основной R² = Основной

МС "Тянь-­‐Шань" атмосферные осадки, в мм Linear (МС "Тянь-­‐Шань" атмосферные осадки, в мм)

y = Основнойx -­‐ Основной R² = Основной

МС "Сары-­‐Таш" температура воздуха, в град."

Linear (МС "Сары-­‐Таш" температура воздуха, в град.")

At the Gissar-­‐Alai glacial nival belt the amount of precipita6on is 2-­‐3 6mes more than in lower zones. But the air temperature increase is seen in the glacier regime, especially, in the abla6on areas that leads to major reduce of glacier size.

y = Основнойx + Основной R² = Основной

МС "Сары-­‐Таш" годовые атмосферные осадки, в мм Linear (МС "Сары-­‐Таш" годовые атмосферные осадки, в мм)

Time variation of average annual temperature and precipitation amount at weather station “Tien-Shan”

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

А,%

152 162 197 210 360 400 525 570 690 1113 Загрязненность, г/м2 Change of albedo of glacier surface depending on contamination of the surface Uneven contamina6on of the glacier surface with eolian silt makes for different albedo of the glacier surface (pic. ). The picture shows that if silt is more than 200g/m2 , the albedo of glacier surface decreases up to 11-­‐18%. It is a very important indicator for glacial and hydrological studies as the most typical contamina6on of Tien-­‐Shan glaciers is within the limits of 200 to 500 g/m2 .

Monitoring of atmospheric dust Tasks of the sta6on: -­‐ study of meteorological parameters and dust par6cle concentra6on in the atmosphere for 30 grada6ons of par6cle sizes which are regularly measured in 1 minute 6me interval.

-­‐ collec6on of mineral aerosols, par6cles of which is over 2 micrometers in size for further mineralogical, chemical and isotopic research.

Results of studies of dust samples and related meteorological parameters and values of dust concentra6on in the atmosphere will serve for addressing issues re paleoclimate change in Central Asia, impact of present dust transfer to the atmosphere on clima6c condi6ons, glacial and hydrological systems.

In future, it is planned to install a dust monitoring sta6on at the high al6tude sta6on of Merzbacher and, likely, Adygene glacier.

Average retreat of Tien-Shan glacier snouts for the period of 1943-2000, m/year

Western Tien-Shan

from <2,7-3,0 to 4,5-6,0

Northern Tien-Shan

from 4,0-6,7 to 8,5-11,8

Issyk-Kul valley

from 2,0-4,9 to 5,4-6,0

Internal Tien-Shan

from 5,6 to 7,7

Central Tien-Shan

from 3,3-4,3 to 8,3-9,5

Dendrite glaciers

from 0-5 to 10-27

Sary-Djaz river basin Glacier number and area changes in the SJR1990-2010

Region

River sub-basins

Area of region, km2

Cou nt

Glaciers area, km2

Glaciers area change (1990-2010)

1990

2010

Abs. (km2)

Rel. (%)

North

Koiluu, Upper stream of the Sary-Jaz

2818.9

348

487.4±9.7

455.8±9.1

-31.6±13.4

6.5±2.7

East

Inilchek, Kaiyngdy

2329.8

318

926.8±18.5

912.8±18.3

-14.0±26.0

1.5±2.7

South

Below-Jangart, Jangart, Jaman-Suu, TaldyBulak, Uch-Chat, Koikap

1662.9

146

130.1±2.6

124.1±2.5

-6.0±3.6

3.4±2.7

West

Ak-Shyirak, Uch-Kol, Terekti, Kichi-Terekti

4389.8

498

510.7±10.2

485.2±9.7

-25.5±14.1

5.0±2.7

11201.4

1310

2055±41.1

1977.9±39.6

-77.1±57.0

3.7±2.7

Total

Gissar-­‐Alai ranges

Reduction of glaciation area in the basins of Ak-Buura and Aravan rivers (km2) Topographic Geometrical parameters

map

obtained using:

scale:1:25 000,

Satellite

Alteration

image, 2000 s

1965 Number of glaciers Minimal area of (glacier) polygon in vector layer, km2

265

311

46

0,004

0,0005

0,004

Maximal area of (glacier) polygon in vector layer, km2

13,25

8,26

4,99

174,17

123,50

50,66

0,66

0,40

0,26

Total area of all (glacier) polygons, km2 Average area of (glacier) polygons, km2

Glacier areas and glaciation change rates in some river basins on northern slopes of Turkestan and Alai ranges

S, km2 River basin 1957 1980 Shahimarda 39,46 n 246,2 Sokh 6 129,7 Isfara 4 415,4 Total 6

30,14 214,6 3 125,0 5 369,8 2

2001

Average annual rates of glaciation degradation, % % 1957-19 1980-2 reduction 80 001

28,19

28,6

1,03

0,31

198,25

19,5

0,56

0,36

120,99

6,8

0,16

0,15

347,43

18,3

0,58

0,27

Высокогорная геонаучная станция Готтфрида Мерцбахера

In 2010 6 stakes were drilled In 2011 9 stakes were drilled

Abla<on stakes on Southern Enilchek glacier Abla<on stakes of 2012

Speed of surface mo6on and retreat of glacier snouts of western and southern Enilchek

Glacier study under the CAW Project (CAIAG, GFZ и Friburg University, Switzerland) • The aim of the Project ”Central Asian Water” is to study main components of water resources in Kyrgyzstan. One of them is concentrated on glaciers.

Glacier research was held both using in-­‐situ methods through installa6on of abla6on stakes, measurements of topographic parameters, GPS measurements and through interpreta6on of satellite images.

• Outcomes: Under the CAW Project in 2010-­‐2012, research was conducted on Golubin glacier and Ak-­‐ Shiyrak massif. Abla6on stakes were installed and values of abla6on and snow accumula6on were measured.

• Together with GFZ partners the width of ice was measured with the georadar. By results of satellite image interpreta6on the values of glacier tongue retreat were obtained.

Diagram of abla<on values

West Suek glacier

Golubin glacier

Glacier №354 (Ak-­‐Shiyrak massif)

Abramov glacier monitoring

Volume of abla<on (cm)

Volume of abla<on on Abramov glacier within 08/2011 -­‐ 08/2012

1 3 5

Numbers of abla<on stakes

2 4 6

412 m

1850-­‐1900 = 0,014 sq.km/year 1900-­‐1936 = 0,013 “Abramov glacier regime” 1936-­‐1967 = 0,027 G.Glazyrin, G.Kamnianski 1967-­‐1970 = 0,077 F.Pertsiger, 1993.

1970-­‐1973 = +0,18 1973-­‐1974 = +0,007 1974-­‐1984 = 0,024 1978-­‐1986 = 0.064 CAIAG 1986-­‐2007 = 0,018 2007-­‐2012 = 0,014

1986

753 m .

2007 2009 2012

2011

Glacier Abramov

0

0.5

kilometers

1

1978

Balance by results for 2011 – Aug 2012 Accumula6on: +63g/cm2, abla6on: -­‐ 293 g/cm2 Discharge (abla6on) in 2012: 0.59 m3/sec or 0,018 km3/year

Merzbacher lake has a big area from 2,5-­‐2,6 to 4,5-­‐5,0 sq.km and is at the average al6tude of

3350m. In different years before outburst the lake accumulates from 120 mln.cub.m to 237 mln.cub.m of water.

Lake outburst happens almost every year, some years – twice a year. Stream from the lake goes

through englacial channels. In its turn, openness of channels depends on water volume in the lake as in the process of channel opening a big role is played by surfacing of lake’s dam under pressure of lake water. If it exceeds the ul6mate value, channels open and lake water is discharged. Surfacing of the lake’s dam is one of the principal possible causes of Merzbacher lake outburst.

Merzbacher lake dam a‡er outburst on 16.07. 2011 г. and its gradual watering

A‡er water discharge depending on the state of flow channels, the lake basin is filled at once or a‡er some 6me.

Iden6fica6on of the 6me of filling has big importance for making forecast of outburst date. But the mechanism of plugging of subglacial flow channels remains understudied so far.

Verhnee Lake is smaller than Merzbacher lake and established on moraine glacial complexes. In the middle of 90-­‐s XX century Verhnee lake almost fully disappeared. One of the reason of its disappearance was a quick shi‡ of floa6ng part of the Northern Enilchek glacier tongue. But it is quite possible that glacier advance was related with dynamic oscilla6ons and relaxa6on self-­‐ oscilla6on. Presently, lake forma6on is intensively developing again towards the retrea6ng glacier.

Verhnee lake before 1997

Present view

Degrada6on of Petrov glacier tongue and increased area of lake a‡er retreat of glacier (Mountain glacier massif of Ak-­‐Shiyrak) 23

High mountain outburst lakes Classifica<on of modern glacial and nival lakes in Kyrgyzstan

Glacial and nival lakes

Moraine and glacial lakes Lakes inside of moraine depressions

Thermo karst lakes

Glacial lakes

Glacier-dammed lakes

Supraglacial lakes

Englacial lakes

Subglacial lakes

Representa6ve glaciers and a network of automa6c weather sta6ons in Kyrgyzstan

Golubin glacier

West Suek glacier

Abramov glacier

Ak-­‐Shiyrak glacier

Representa6ve glaciers in Kyrgyzstan monitored by CAIAG

Спасибо за внимание!

Thank you!