Modern and Past Climate Impact on Cryosphere/Water Resources in Central Asia
Vladimir and Elena Aizen University of Idaho, USA Huaraz, Peru , July 11-24, 2013
1. How much do we know about the role of the cryosphere in water resources in Central Asia? 2. What does the cryosphere mean for local communi>es? 3. Can climate and cryosphere change cause a humanitarian catastrophe in Central Asia? 4. Are water problems in Central Asia the result of human impact or the result of global climate change?
-‐ understand the complex con>nental modern climate and paleoclimate in Euras through the Holocene and beyond -‐ advancing the climate predictability by focusing on natural variability, anthropogenic impacts on climate, and the poten>al for abrupt climate change via major climate drivers
-‐ Predict the future climate and water resources to develop adapta>on and mi>ga>on prac>ces to support socioeconomic stability in Asia
Partnerships with na>onal and interna>onal programs WCAP-‐SCAR
CliC UNESCO HIGH ELEVATIONS
CADIP collabora>ve contributors
JAPAN Ins>tute fo Humanity and Nature Na>onal Ins>tute of Polar Research Chiba University Nagoya University
GERMANY University of Heidelberg, GFZ ,BGC Bavarian Glaciological CommiXee
CADIP since 2005
USA lead contributors University of Idaho Glacio-‐Climatological Group University of Maine Climate Change Ins>tute University of California Santa Barbara ICESS
KYRGYZSTAN Central Asian Ins>tute for Applied Geo-‐Sciences (CAIAG) University of Central Asia (UCA)
RUSSIA Tomsk State University Ins>tute of Geography RAS
TAJIKISTAN Ins>tute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology
• Popula>on grows • Agricultural and industrial expansion/demand
2000 – 100M
1900 – 15M
The World Endorheic Drainage Basins
Central Asia is the World largest endorheic basin
Altai -‐ 2042 km2 ; ~111 km3 [Dolgushin, Niki/n, Chinese Glacier Inventory] Pamir -‐ 13424 km2 ; ~1208 km3 [Sche/nninkov, Dolgushin, Chinese Gl. Inventory] Tien Shan -‐ 16,507 km2; ~1814 km3 [Kuzmichenok, Aizen, Chinese Gl. Inventory]
35% of the total glacier covered area in high mountains of Asia and 80% of all glacierized area located at large, high elevated mountain massifs.
Glacier changes in Altai and Tien Shan Altai glaciers lost 86 km2 (-‐6.2%) during the last 40 years . Leviy Aktru glacier terminus in 1952, 1966, 1975, and 2006.
During the last 40 years Tien Shan glaciers lost -‐709 km2 of the total area, (-‐7.1%) in average
Source: SRTM 2000, Corona KH-‐9, Landsat TM, ETM+, Aster, ALOS/PRISM)
Glacier changes in Pamir (Amu Darya R. Basin)
Area of glaciers reduced by 615 km2 (5%) during the last 40-‐years. The total glacierized area has changed mainly due to shrinkage of small glaciers with an area of <0.5-‐ 2.0 km2. The number of small glaciers in the 1970s was 456 while in 2009 only 359. The number of medium (2.1 – 10.0 km2) and large glaciers (over 100 km2) remained stable. Large glacier massifs reduced to less than 2%.
Area of glaciers in 1973: 12,449 km2
Area of glaciers in 2009: 11,834 km2 River runoﬀ
Source: SRTM 2000, Corona KH-‐9 (1970th), Landsat TM, ETM+, Aster (1980-‐90th), ALOS/PRISM (2000th)
2003 2002 1995 1977 1956 1943 1869 1800
Petrov Glacier, Akshiirak glacierized massif in Tien Shan retreat 3 km between 1869 (ﬁrst topographic survey) and 2003.
Central Pamir (Fedchenko Glacier, Amu Dar’ya R. Basin)
1.1 km Fedchenko Glacier terminus retreated since 1928 (map in background), and 755 m between 1958 (black) and 2009 (blue, GPS survey). Total area loss 2.91 km2 (-‐0.5%). Red line is 1980 geodeZc survey.
Central Pamir (Fedchenko Glacier, Amu Dar’ya R. Basin) 90 m
(a) surface lowering of Fedchenko glacier from 1958 to 2009 along the center proﬁle (90 m near the terminus and 20 m at 4000 m a.s.l.), (b) surface (lower image KH-‐9 and SRTM ), (c) Fedchenko Glacier surface coved by moraine debris (25 km from terminus)
The volume loss 5 km³ over the period of 81 years relates to an iniZal volume of 131 km³ in 1928 (3.8%).
Central Tien Shan (Inylchek Glacier, Tarim R. Basin)
The Inylchek Glacier terminus retreated 0.7 km since 1943 (aerial photo), 434 m between 1974 (KH-‐9) and 2009 (ALOS Prism). Total area loss 0.98 km2 (-‐0.3%).
Snow covered area changes (SCA, %)
analysis used all available AVHRR (1979-‐2009 ) and all available MODIS Terra-‐8 day snow cover product from 2000 to 2009
SCA (%) computed for each 5 km grid from eight-‐day snow cover data relies on elevaZon (higher elevaZon, higher SCA).
Trend of snow cover change computed using Mann-‐Kendall's test shows staZsZcal signiﬁcant SCA change rate per decade.
6,056,480 km2 is annually covered by snow in CA (about 45% of the total study area of 13,500,000 km2, Pamir and Tien Shan show signiﬁcant decrease in trend of SCA percentage per decade above 3000 – 4000 m asl (-‐3.22% to -‐4.06%) but elevated in Altai (+2.51%). DuraZon of snow melt from the date of maximum snow cover to the date of it’s disappearance reduced by 30 days in Tien Shan and Pamir.
(Marchenko et al, 2007)
Precipita>on and air temperature changes Over 60 years observaZonal data analysis from 251 meteorological long-‐term staZons located at an elevaZon range between -‐25 m below sea level to 4169 m asl between Mongolia and the Caspian Sea, and between south Siberia and Tibetan Plateau Aral-‐Caspian Basin
Altai and Mongolia
Pamir Air temperature, oC
Tarim R. Basin, Taklimakan Desert
PrecipitaZon , mm
Diﬀerences in 30-‐year averages of annual precipitaZon (dPan= avePan1973-‐2009 – avePan1942-‐1972). Increased variability of annual precipitaZon, parZcularly over 3,000m asl.
Diﬀerences in 30-‐year averages of annual mean air temperatures (dTan = aveTan1973-‐1942 – aveTan1942-‐2009) . +0.65°C diﬀerence and mainly in summer up to +0.9°C.
River runoﬀ in Central Asia
For the last thirty six years (1973-‐2009), the long-‐term mean runoﬀ in the glacierized basins on average increased by 2% compared with the previous thirty three years (1943-‐1973), while thirty three year mean in annual maximum runoﬀ decreased by 5% on average %
Rela/ve changes of the last thirty year annual mean (dQan/Qan) and maximum (dQmax/Qmax) river runoﬀ in comparison to sixty six year averages, % , and changes in dates of maximum river runoﬀ (ddQmax).
Khara Khoto: relics in deserts
(a) Western Belukha Plateau (4115m asl) August 2003, Altai, Southern Siberia (b) Inylchek Glacier (5220m asl) August 2000, Central Tien Shan (c) Grigorieva Ice-cap (4563m asl) August 2007, Inner Tien Shan, (d) Fedchenko Glacier (5000m asl and 5400 m asl), Central Pamir 2009 and 2005.
Core depth, m
Belukha Plateau ice-coring site, Siberian Altai, 2003). DL
(A) Stable isotopic composition (δ18O), 1m/0.5 m and 200 samples moving averages for the period of moderate/abrupt changes (ice-core from Belukha Plateau, Siberian Altai, 2003) and (B) in Tien Shan (Grigorieva Ice-cap (2007).
The Holocene Climate Op>mum , 8.2ky CE
82.2 82.4 82.6
Core depth, m
85.4m core from Gregoriev Ice-cap Soil organic dated by 14C at the core bottom
83.4 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.2
84.4 84.6 84.8 85.0 85.2
Core depth, m
The Younger Dryas, 15,650-‐15,000 BP, the last glacial period
85.4 85.6 85.8 86.0 86.2
Dated stable δ18O isotope records 10-‐year record (bold line) and 25-‐year record (double bold line)
ToCcentennial -8 -10 YD – Younger Dryas PBO – Pre-‐Boreal 8.2 ka Cold Event HCO – Holocene Climate OpZmum SCD -‐ Severe Centennial Drought PWP – Prolong Warm Period
-12 -14 -16
Centennial (red solid line), the Modern (blue dashed line) and Recent Warm Period (black dash-‐domed line) means of reconstructed air temperature for circa 12,700 years Aizen et al, submi]ed to the J. of Glaciology
The dried watercourse between Aral and Caspian seas developed during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial.
Slides for presentation given to High Mountains Adaptation Partnership in Huaraz, Peru on 13 July 2013.