WILLNORWAY BE LEFT BEHIND?
Erik Bye
13th September 2025
Our present Government is completely convinced by the political climate direction given by the UN and the IPCC.
Fossil CO2 is the prime cause of the extreme climate change we are facing. Thus, the country must organize the future energy production according to The Green Deal. The present Norwegian Climate goal is to reduce the CO2-emission by 75% by 2035. Now the emission is around 40 MT/year. The total emission of the world is 40 GT/year, i.e. 1000 times the Norwegian CO2 output. There is a massive obstacle to the possibility to attain this goal in Norway.
In the period from 1990 to 2022 we reduced CO2 emissions by only 5%. In the period 2023 - 2024 we reduced them by another 15%, so the handling is not overwhelming. With a rate of 8% per year, we might obtain the goal, but that has as a prerequisite that the Norwegian emissions do not increase. The reduction is based on our level in 1990.
But here we meet the first contradiction. The Government has a general attitude: phasing down the oil production in the long run, in balance with continued oil production from day to day. They also have a high activity with respect to possibilities of finding more oil!
What is happening?
- The US has withdrawn from the ParisAgreement, along with three other major oil-producing countries: Yemen, Libya and Iran.
- Only 15 UN members have bothered to announce new climate goals.
- More countries are reporting increased coal, oil and gas production. «Drill baby, drill». Drill for more oil, to the last drop.
- The world needs more energy if they are to deal with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, No. 1: "Remove hunger" and No. 2: "Remove poverty".
What is Norway doing?
- We will cut 75% of CO2 emissions by 2035. Norway wants to become carbon neutral by 2050-2070. Then no more CO2 will be emitted than we capture and remove (CCS – Carbon Capture and Sequestration).
- The Government has not presented the bill for this climate target, but we are talking about hundreds of billions NOK/year – (10 NOK = 1 $US).
- Norway has increasing activity at Langskipet (a station to receive CO2 for CCS) to capture and store CO2. The gas is delivered to Langskipet, transported by boat to Øygarden, where it is pumped underground, 2,600 m down, to eternal rest. Initially, it is the cement production that is "cleaned up". CO2 capture from waste management will also be included afterwards.
- Norway has faith in The Green Deal. The dream of offshore and onshore wind is considered as safe winners. There are customers who want to deliver CO2 to Øygarden, so this should go well.
This is a paradox: We accept The Green deal and work for Net Zero in 2070.At the same time, we drill for more oil.
Electrification
- The authorities believe that electrification of the continental shelf is a useful and well-functioning climate measure. Electrification uses electricity rather than a gas generator to run oil production. Norway is reducing its emissions, which in total is not more than 1/1000 of the global emissions! However, this unburned gas is sold to our neighbors, who use it and must budget for this emission. Norway boasts the world's cleanest oil and gas production. But that is simply because our neighbors receive, use and account for our CO2 gas.
Increased emissions until 2030
- China is among the countries that have been allowed to increase the emissions of CO2 until 2030. China is the country that emits most fossil CO2, slightly more than 10 GT/year, about 1/4 of global emissions. However, China needs more energy. And although they have probably increased the production of green energy, they will increase annual CO2 emissions by 1.2 GT/year by 2030. This is about 50 times what Norway will remove. Sounds like a bad deal, a bad balance.
Emissions compared to 1990
-All emission reductions are to be calculated based on emissions in 1990. How much the emission permitted by the ParisAgreement will entail, no one really knows. But if global emissions increase by the same amount as China's total emissions, it will increase by 10% by 2030.
- Some of this is a fairy tale about the Norwegian reduction regime. Some of it is part of the CCS adventure on Øygarden. The electrification of the continental shelf is also an important part.
- But in addition, the Government is unsure whether Norway will achieve its climate goals. They have already started talking about buying quotas from the EU. Here, Norway can emit as much as a quota seller can sell. This can quickly become a lot of money in the coffers, without decreased emissions. It's just the piggy bank that gets thinner. That's what it's like to have good EU friends.
Something is happening
- The round that globally is underway now, is discussed in Norway. Here, the increased oil production in Great Britain and New Zealand is also discussed. Parts of this are described by JoNova: https://joannenova.com.au/2025/09/uk-tories-promise-to-let-industry-drain-all-thenorth-sea-oil-and-gas/
Oil and gas production simultaneously with the Green Deal?
What is going to happen at this interface? Where will the winner be?
When will this development first start to be obvious for the Norwegian politicians? For those who will drill to the last drop of oil; or for those who will stop drilling as soon as possible, at any cost?
This is a paradox. Will the politicians meet this challenge. What will be the solution? My guess: more oil!