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A quick overview of my recent works on climate
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
December 22, 2024
I am starting my brief post of today with some facts:
● The atmospheric CO currently represents 4% of 1% of the total ₂ number of molecules in the atmosphere. (The rest 99.96% are molecules of other substances: Nitrogen 77.8%, Oxygen 20.9%, Argon 0.9%, Water (vapour) 0.4%, and all trace gases <0.03% altogether.)1
● Humans currently contribute 4% to the total CO emissions. (The ₂ rest 96% is by natural causes.)
● Atmospheric CO contributes 4% to the atmospheric greenhouse ₂ effect, as measured by the downwelling longwave radiation. (The rest is from water and clouds, 95%, and other trace gases, 1%.)
● Both atmospheric concentration of CO and globally averaged ₂ atmospheric temperature have been increasing in the recent decades.
● Changes in the atmospheric concentration of CO lag changes in ₂ temperature. (First we observe changes in temperature and then in CO concentration.) ₂
Ergo (according to the official climate narrative):
1. Human CO emissions (which are 4% of the total, and contribute ₂ 4% of 4% = 0.16% to the greenhouse effect), cause increase of temperature, which occurs before the increase of CO₂ concentration.
2. Human CO emissions are responsible for every evil in the world, ₂ including floods, droughts, wars, immigration, kidney stones and every disease imaginable.2
Schematically, this is shown in the upper row of the following figure, reproduced from my brand new paper:
D. Koutsoyiannis, The relationship between atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, Science of Climate Change, 4 (3), 39–59, doi:10.53234/scc202412/15, 2024.
Figure 1 of the paper: Graphical depiction of the subject of the paper, with the upper row of arrows showing the mainstream causal chain that is popular among climate zealots and mainstream climate sceptics, and the lower row showing the proposed alternative based on my recent
change in the isotopic composition of atmospheric CO, and century-long ₂ longwave radiation data show no discernible effect of increased CO₂ concentration on the greenhouse effect.
Concluding remarks
● The foundation of the modern climate edifice is afflicted by erroneous assumptions and speculations.
● The causal chain promoted by mainstream science is naïve and wrong.
● In scientific terms, the case of the magnified importance of CO, the focus on human emissions thereof, and the neglect of ₂ the ~25 times greater natural CO emissions constitute a ₂ historical accident.
● This accident was exploited in non-scientific (politicoeconomic) terms.
● For complex systems, observational data are the only scientific test bed for making hypotheses and assessing their validity.
● The real-world data do not agree with the “mainstream science” (a euphemism for sophistry).
● The results I have presented are scientific and therefore may not be relevant to the climate narrative, which has a nonscientific aim.
The increase of atmospheric concentration of CO is a fact, as already ₂ noted. But is this increase evil? In my view, the significant effect it has is the greening of the Earth. For those who prefer browning over greening, this may indeed be very bad…
My figures differ from those commonly used because I include water vapour to find the percentages, whereas those commonly used are for dry air. [Nb., a correction was made to the initial figures, which contained errors.]
2
In the paper I am presenting here I refer to kidney stones as I found this link most amusing. In the meantime, there may have been even more entertaining developments. For example, according to the recent COP29, “Climate change is the defining health challenge of our times”. In response, the UK’s Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health immediately specialized this climate threat to children’s health. But, I’m afraid, this is not a manifestation of the British humour. So it is fair to assume that climate change has taken a heavy toll on the once-famous British sense of humour.…
3
In the last five years alone I have produced the following climate-related works (in collaboration with the coauthors mentioned or alone), in chronological order (including my book):
1. D. Koutsoyiannis, Revisiting the global hydrological cycle: is it intensifying?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3899–3932, doi:10.5194/hess-24-3899-2020, 2020.
2. T. Iliopoulou and D. Koutsoyiannis, Projecting the future of rainfall extremes: better classic than trendy, Journal of Hydrology, 588, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125005, 2020.
3. Z.W. Kundzewicz, I. Pińskwar and D. Koutsoyiannis, Variability of global mean annual temperature is significantly influenced by the rhythm of ocean-atmosphere oscillations, Science of the Total Environment, 747, 141256, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141256, 2020.
4. D. Koutsoyiannis and Z.W. Kundzewicz, Atmospheric temperature and CO: Hen-or-egg causality?, ₂ Sci, 2 (4), 83, doi:10.3390/sci2040083, 2020.
5. D. Koutsoyiannis, Rethinking climate, climate change,and their relationship with water, Water, 13 (6), 849, doi:10.3390/w13060849, 2021.
6. D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, A. Christofides and Z.W. Kundzewicz, Revisiting causality using stochastics: 1.Theory, Proceedings of The Royal Society A, 478 (2261), 20210835, doi:10.1098/rspa.2021.0835, 2022.
7. D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, A. Christofides and Z.W. Kundzewicz, Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications, Proceedings of The Royal Society A, 478 (2261), 20210836, doi:10.1098/rspa.2021.0836, 2022.
8. D. Koutsoyiannis and A. Montanari, Climate extrapolations in hydrology: The expanded Bluecat methodology, Hydrology, 9, 86, doi:10.3390/hydrology9050086, 2022.
9. D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, A. Koukouvinos, N. Malamos, N. Mamassis, P. Dimitriadis, N. Tepetidis and D. Markantonis, In search of climate crisis in Greece using hydrological data: 404 Not Found, Water, 15 (9), 1711, doi:10.3390/w15091711, 2023.
10. D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, Z.W. Kundzewicz and A. Christofides, On hens, eggs, temperatures and CO: Causal ₂ links in Earth’s atmosphere, Sci, 5 (3), 35, doi:10.3390/sci5030035, 2023.
11. D. Koutsoyiannis and C. Vournas, Revisiting the greenhouse effect—a hydrological perspective, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69 (2), 151–164, doi:10.1080/02626667.2023.2287047, 2024.
12.D. Koutsoyiannis, Net isotopic signature of atmospheric CO₂ sources and sinks: No change since the Little Ice Age, Sci, 6 (1), 17, doi:10.3390/sci6010017, 2024.
13.D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic assessment of temperature – CO₂ causal relationship in climate from the Phanerozoic through