AN HYPOTHESIS FOR THE CLIMATE IMPACT OF CO2
Erik Bye and Gerald Ratzer October 20, 2025
Introduction
Based on The Green Deal and The ParisAgreement, Norway has decided to reduce its CO2 emissions by 75% before 2035, compared to the emissions in 1990. Several other countries have similar government policies.
If it is impossible to observe any impact of changes in the CO2 level, is it sensible to continue with this CO2 reduction policy? How long should The Government be allowed to use billions of NOK or dollars with no climate impact from CO2 effects?
Or should the CO2 reduction process be stopped? Should all the climate change policies be cancelled? This is a challenge to the Net Zero policies in general.
If this should be decided, how do we terminate The Climate Discussion on manmade climate change? On which criteria should the cancellation be based?
If we operate within the Scientific Method, we should formulate a hypothesis to test for «no effects» or «no longer, any effects». Can the CO2 level change and its impact be tested and eventually falsified.
Apossible solution
The Norwegian emission of CO2 to the atmosphere should be reduced by 75% before 2035 to avoid unwanted global warming.
The global CO2 level in the atmosphere is increasing by about 2 ppmv every year. If the CO2 level continues to increase until 2035, and the global temperature shows no impact, then the CO2 policies should be terminated.
I. Basic Principles
Such a hypothesis may be constructed based on the Scientific Method, with the hope of resolving the Challenging questions:
What is the unwanted, non-acceptable climate situation?
Answer: Uncontrolled global warming!
What is the best risk indicator to measure this unwanted climate situation?
Answer: Increased CO2 level in the atmosphere!
Where, by whom and how should the risk indictor be decided?
Answer: Apply the standard measurements from Mauna Loa!
How and how often should risk measurements be reported?
The system should allow for the test of the risk indicator in 2035, 2050, 2070 or 2090.
II. The Climate Effect Indicator
The climate indicator (variable) to describe the unwanted situation uniquely is the CO2 level from Mauna Loa. The global lower troposphere temperature as measured by UAH should be the impact measure. In 1990 and 2000, the CO2 levels were 354 and 371 ppmv, respectively. The CO2 reduction has been the most important climate measure for UN for several years, and 2000 might be an acceptable starting point for the evaluation, with 371 ppmv CO2. Although several countries have reduced CO2 emissions, the total CO2 level measured at Mauna Loa is increasing, see this chart:
The global human CO2 emissions in 1990 and 2024 were reported to be 22.5 and 41.6 billion tonnes (GT) – an 85% increase.
This means that despite the climate measures to reduce CO2 emissions, the level is increasing, as the trend from 1930 shows, with a quadratic increase:
Y = 0.0136 • X2 - 0.049 • X + 306.5
where X = (T - 1930), T being the actual year of evaluation.
The present increase since 2000 is 60 ppmv. Even from 2020 to 2025, the CO2 level has increased. This is partly due to the permission of several large UNmember countries to increase CO2 emissions up to 2030, to reach their necessary energy demand.
The starting point for the hypothesis must be decided. With the selection of 2000, and the time for falsifying is 2035, we will have a period of 35 years for this climate parameter evaluation.
III. The hypothesis
The increase of the CO2 level in the atmosphere should stop and start to decrease according to the climate measures in 2035. The global temperature should show a similar trend.
If not, the effect of the climate policies is falsified.
IV. The Data Treatment
Ordinary statistical test methods should be used for this climate measure effect evaluation.
Although it might be possible to falsify the climate measure in 2035, an extension to 2050 may be decided. The strength of the statistical test will increase, However, at the expense of a suggested cost of 170 billion NOK per year, just in Norway!
One US$ is about 10 NOK.
V. The Summary and Declaration
These questions must be decided:
Who will decide the result?
Who will collect and verify the information?
How should the information be disseminated?
If no change can be verified in 2035, will all climate subsidies, rules and regulations be cancelled?
Do we need to wait until 2035 to make this determination?
Who should certify and disseminate the results?
Concluding remarks
The main point with the climate Effect hypothesis is to have a way to stop the official government waste of money, to control the climate by human interaction. The UN, the member states and the IPCC will never observe any Climate Change based on their climate measures and mode of operation. They will not observe and report any change in the global measured temperature, based on the reduction of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The only event that might disturb the situation is a natural decrease in the temperature. Then the ocean will absorb more CO2, and the atmospheric CO2 graph may change its curvature as seen in this article and chart by Roy Spencer from WUWT:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/07/18/updated-atmospheric-CO2-concentrationforecast-through-2050-and-beyond/
Then the climate situation, the CO2 level and the curvature must be reconsidered.
We invite comments and a debate!
Is this feasible?