KN - Tipping Point, Minimum Distance Wind, EV tires

Climate News “Tipping point” Greenland ice cream canceled?

October 21, 2023 by Climate News Editor We carefully read the definition of a “tipping point” as the PIK gave it to us: “It’s like a pen that you push further and further over the edge of a table with your finger. At first nothing happens – then he falls.” That’s what it says on the PIK website . Nothing can bring the pencil back to the table except a failure of gravity, unthinkable. The PIK then lists various “elements” that are supposed to exhibit such behavior. The Greenland ice sheet can be found here: “There are indications that the tipping point, which leads to almost 1

complete ice loss in the long term (approx. 10,000 years), is probably already at global warming of just under 1.5°C (possible from 0.8° C global warming, at the latest at 3°C) could be achieved.”

Now a paper on the topic has appeared in “Nature” that paints a different picture. She finds that even after a potentially “critical warming threshold” is exceeded, “the pencil doesn’t fall down”: “We find several stable intermediate ice-sheet configurations … that return to the present-day state if the climate returns to present-day conditions.”

In addition, models often estimate warming in Greenland (the cause of the problem) using the average global warming rate and then factor in the “Arctic amplification” of any warming to determine the temperature swing in Greenland. The work does this: “Recently, it has been shown that the Arctic warms four times faster than the global average and thus substantially exceeds previous estimates and projections from climate models. Arctic amplification of this magnitude would reduce the safe space for the GrIS substantially. However, surface temperatures around Greenland might not increase that severely in the future.”

Observations since 2000 now show that the warming of the Arctic is far from uniform during this period. +++ Good news for car tire manufacturers. Your sales are likely to increase when you switch to electric cars because the tires seem to wear out faster. A study from Canada suggests that the reason is the increased weight of the vehicles.

“According to the specific report, “tires on EVs tend to wear out more quickly than when installed on a comparable ICE vehicle. So it's not that EV tires wear faster but rather that tires wear faster when installed on an EV. The commonly quoted figure in the tire industry is 20 percent less wear life with an EV versus an ICE vehicle.”

This 20 percent decrease in wear life is mostly due to the added weight of EVs as a result of the added weight of the battery pack.” +++ 2

Professor Gerd Ganteför with a video about CO2. Ganteför is currently being massively attacked on Twitter. This has happened before, but now it has reached a new level. One of the apparently angry viewers of his videos was Volker Quaschning. Ganteför offered to talk in front of a camera, but Quaschning declined. +++ Biomass always sounds very nice. In reality, it is primarily the burning of wood. Re-Planet with an article about this questionable practice.

“Europe's climate and energy policies are encouraging an increase in emissions. The European Union has adopted a number of individual, seemingly beneficial policies that together create a quite catastrophic situation. Here is how it works.

First, all bioenergy is counted as zero-carbon within the Emissions Trading System (ETS), which includes all large-scale energy production (heat, power and industry) in Europe. However, in the real world, outside the paper world of bureaucracy, the burning of biomass always releases carbon dioxide, which always accelerates global warming.

Depending on the type of biomass and the observed timescale, the climate forcing can be smaller or larger. Burning sawdust causes a small impact, while chopping up and burning roundwood has a larger effect. In some rare cases, the impact might be negative, for example if we burn waste that would otherwise rot and cause the release of methane, which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.” +++ What does Fridays For Future want? Apparently climate is no longer enough as a topic, at least not for Greta Thunberg. She has very clear sympathies and they do not apply to Israel, as Der Spiegel reports.

“It's particularly noticeable these days what people with high-reach accounts post on social networks, what they take a stand on and what they don't. Climate activist Greta Thunberg is now causing a stir with an organization's contribution, which she shared in her Instagram story. It calls for a global strike on Friday - to take a stand "against the genocide in Gaza and the repressive terror of many Western states against everyone who shows solidarity with Palestine and acts accordingly."

The organization “Palestine Speaks” created the post on Instagram four 3

days ago. According to its own information, it is a “political, feminist, democratic, anti-racist movement in Germany for Palestinian rights.” The account contains critical statements about banned demonstrations in Berlin. One article says “Free Palestine from the river to the sea”. What is meant is the area between the Jordan and the Mediterranean, and the saying can therefore be understood as a call for the extinction of the state of Israel. In the past, the account also called for support of a lawsuit concerning the “anti-BDS resolution of the German Bundestag.” BDS stands for “Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions”. This is directed against, among other things, goods from Israel and cooperation in culture and science.”

The German section of the climate movement is doing its best to backtrack.

Can that succeed? +++ Up to 120 huge wind turbines are to be built in the canton of Zurich in Switzerland. But the resistance to it is getting bigger and bigger. The opponents have adopted a special strategy to prevent the turbines: They are trying to enforce minimum distances between the wind turbines and inhabited areas in communities. Corresponding initiatives have already been launched in 25 municipalities in the canton. Alex Reichmuth reported about it in Nebelspalter ( https://www.nebelspalter.ch/ford-fuermindestabstaende-in-25-zuercher-gemeinden ).

Requirement for minimum distances in 25 Zurich communities Resistance to planned wind turbines in the canton of Zurich is increasing.

An initiative for minimum distances between wind turbines and inhabited areas has now been submitted in 25 municipalities. This is shown by research by the “Free Landscape Zurich” association, which fights against wind turbines in the canton. Minimum distances of 700, 800 or even 1000 meters would mean that there are hardly any areas left where wind turbines can be built.

The green Zurich construction director Martin Neukom announced last year that up to 120 wind turbines, some of which are over 200 meters high, will one day be built in the canton. For this reason, the administration has identified 52 so-called potential areas in which wind turbines could be built. These are predominantly in rural areas. According to Neukom's plans, wind power will contribute up to seven percent to the

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canton of Zurich's electricity supply in the future.

More about this in Nebelspalter ( https://www.nebelspalter.ch/ford-fuermindestabstaende-in-25-zuercher-gemeinden ). +++ Press release from the Advisory Center for Sustainable Development and Change Management: Sustainability requires consideration of all dimensions of political decisions and concepts “The national goal and way of life of Germans are today viewed primarily from an ecological perspective!”

The Building Energy Act is a classic example of a policy that is too shortsighted. This is the opinion expressed by the head of the Consulting Center for Sustainable Development and Change Management, Dennis Riehle (Konstanz), in a recent press release. “In any case, the ideology of ecologism lacks the necessary perspective of economic efficiency and social compatibility, which must be taken into account in a sustainable and solution-oriented approach to the challenges of civilization with a view to preserving creation. Anyone who focuses their decisions and concepts for tomorrow solely on the question of which technology emits as little CO2 as possible always forgets the economic component, but also does not follow through with their ideas.

The current cheers for the heat pump make it clear: At first glance, it may seem to be a type of heating that is as 'climate-neutral' as possible - even if it is still largely unclear what is meant by this term. Ultimately, however, considerable material expenditure is required for their production, including sensitive raw materials. At the same time, the electricity it consumes must also come from some energy source. Wind turbines and solar systems are nowhere near as compatible with nature conservation as they are often portrayed. Not only do they sometimes blight the landscape, but they also require chips and other individual parts to produce them, for which we have to rely on limited resources.

However, these truths are often concealed in media and scientific representations because they could damage the image of 'renewables' and their alleged compatibility with a philosophy of climate protection. A superficial look is taken at the obvious, causal chains, backgrounds and 5

connections are not referred to for good reason, as this could reduce the hype and the prosperity of certain industries. In particular, the Greens' commitment is increasingly revealing itself to be an exclusive lobbying policy for those companies that fit into the worldview of radical activism.

The double standards that become clear here reduce trust in those in power, who are no longer focused on the common good of the people, but above all on the prosperity of their dream castles of freedom from 'fossils'," said Riehle.

“The situation is no different with nuclear energy, which is demonized for purely opportune reasons, although in its ultimate balance – in terms of carbon dioxide emissions – it is one of the most sensible options for combining energy production and sustainability. Ultimately, it would be a fallacy to believe that humanity could survive without access to the basis of life. Despite all moralizing and good humanity, we should free ourselves from this illusion. Of course we need to find a new frugality and limit the luxurious life of waste and exploitation of our planet. We can definitely afford wealth, but in a time of rethinking, excesses are no longer ethically justifiable. Because we are noticing increasing distribution struggles across our globe, which will not stop at our own country if we do not take the social component of the transformation into account.

At the moment, people have the impression, not without reason, that it is primarily ordinary citizens who are confronted with the additional costs of the transition. The considerations for an industrial electricity price make it clear that politicians are primarily concerned with the stability of companies, but at the same time risk splitting solidarity in society. Anyone who is addicted to the idealism of supposedly climate-friendly buildings or vehicles should also explain how the little man is supposed to pay for these costs, which often reach six-figure heights.

It is simply not enough to imagine the ideal world of zero emissions without simultaneously considering a massive redistribution of the burden. Because it is not just climate change and its effects that will be a problem for the coming decades. Increasing expenses for care, pensions and health care will put people in distress in addition to rent and construction costs. And if we are still unclear about what effects our frantic efforts in the fight against global warming actually have - and whether humans, with their transhumanistic arrogance, do not ascribe to themselves more possibilities for influence than actually exist, the question remains in the end whether “We don’t set the wrong priorities,” explains

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the 38-year-old journalist from Lake Constance in his statement.

The advice center for sustainable development can be reached free of charge at www.beratung-riehle.de .

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The falling pencil October 22, 2023 by Climate News Editor We recently reported on tipping points and used the image of a pencil that is pushed further and further to the edge of a table and finally follows gravity and falls to the floor. However, this picture is not entirely correct when it comes to climate, as we explain in the second part. In the first part it was shown: 1. That the ice does NOT melt away when a critical warming threshold is exceeded, except for a few remaining amounts.

2. The assumed Arctic amplification of warming, which contributes significantly to reaching the “critical threshold”, is not observed as strongly in Greenland as in many other parts of the Arctic.

Today we want to take a closer look at this reinforcement. It developed over the years with annual data to a value of 3, which means: over the entire year, the latitudes north of 65°N warm up three times as quickly as the latitudes 65°S - 65°N. However, melting in Greenland occurs in the warm season, April-September. According to this current work, the ice shelf actually gains mass in winter as warming continues: “In response to reduced sea ice, the GrIS (Greenland Ice Shelf, dA) SMB increases in winter due to increased precipitation, driven by the more humid atmosphere and increasing cyclones.”

In the future, melting will only take place in the warm season. What is the state of the Arctic reinforcements? Seasonally it has developed like this since 2000:

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Arctic amplification over time. While it leveled off at around a factor of 4 in the colder season, it only reached a factor of 2 in the Greenland melting season.

However, winter doesn't play a role because it is simply too cold for that and, on the contrary, with further warming due to more precipitation from a moister atmosphere, the ice sheet grows. A look at the spatial distribution of warming in the critical season:

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Here it becomes apparent that in larger parts of Greenland this Arctic amplification is close to 1 (i.e. not effective), on average it is perhaps only 1.5. The Arctic driver here is also the eastern Arctic, much less Greenland.

This work also finds a critical threshold at which melting accelerates, only at 2.7 °C global warming. This is a far cry from the 1.5 °C that the PIK communicates to us . With the latest findings on climate sensitivity and the most likely emissions scenario SSP245, we are unlikely to reach this threshold. Even if we exceed it in the short term, it is very unlikely that the Greenland ice will "run away" like a "falling pencil", as shown in Part 1 of the Greenland ice analysis. More hype than reality: unfortunately that is the case again here. +++

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The Salzgitter Group is restructuring its steel production. According to NDR, it will require large amounts of hydrogen in the future.

“For the steel to actually be “green” in the end, the steel company will need huge amounts of hydrogen, which will be produced using electricity from the sun and wind. Natural gas will still be used in the transition phase, but by 2033 the company will need a full 300,000 tons of hydrogen annually.

And which will hopefully exist then, in contrast to now. “It’s true, green hydrogen is a challenge,” admits CEO Groebler. “We will produce a small part ourselves and procure the rest on the market, just as we buy energy sources today. This market doesn’t exist yet, but we are in discussions with various players.” As a customer you are interesting because the purchase quantity is huge. Another advantage: Salzgitter will be part of a hydrogen starting network and therefore well connected to coastal regions where hydrogen will arrive in the future.”

There are apparently no sales problems with green steel, even though it is likely to be significantly more expensive.

“Good for the steel industry: The demand for green steel is great, car and household appliance manufacturers are already lining up and are prepared to pay more. Groebler confirms this, the first batch of climatefriendly steel, which is to be produced in Salzgitter in 2026, has already been sold.” +++ CO2 storage, banned in Germany but apparently urgently needed. The Handelsblatt : “The Carbon Dioxide Storage Act (KSpG) of 2012 makes CO2 storage in Germany virtually impossible. The federal states also have the option of banning CO2 storage in their territory. Several federal states have made use of this option. Companies are not even allowed to transport CO2 out of Germany to store it somewhere else, such as Norway, Denmark or the Netherlands.

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The fact that Habeck is having difficulty paving the way for CO2 storage is probably primarily due to resistance within his own party. The Greens are indeed changing their thinking. In mid-September, the party presented the draft for its European election program, which states that in areas where CO2 emissions are particularly difficult or impossible to avoid, they want to “capture, store and store the CO2 directly during production use if necessary”. But only at a Green party conference at the end of November will we see whether a majority of delegates accept this passage in the election program.” +++

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