Oil Productive Capacity A Problem? - HL

Oil Productive Capacity A Problem?

Howard Lowe October 31, 2022 This essay examines and offers solutions to the oil productive crisis. The subject is very complex and one or two pages do not suffice to cover the subject in detail. So, here are the high points.

First, let’s examine PROVEN reserves and productive capacities of four producing countries closely associated with America’s oil demand.

1. Venezuela (299.3 billion barrels) – heavy oil requires more sophisticated processing resulting in higher cost for products.

2. Saudi Arabia (266.6 billion barrels) – high-capacity wells – approx. 3,500 wells can produce 12 million barrels per day. However, they are getting close to maximum capacity – presently probably 85-90%.

3. Canada (170.9 billion barrels) – tar sands produce bitumen which requires sophisticated processing. The Keystone XL pipeline out of Canada could furnish 800,000+ barrels per day.

4. Russia (80.0 billion barrels) – likely at or very near producing capacity. Near term solution only.

5. United States (25.2 billion barrels) – production from 620,000+ wells can produce a maximum of 11-12 million barrels per day. Fracked wells in shale producing basins decline rapidly and continuous drilling is necessary to maintain overall oil production rates.

The American oil industry was born in the 18th century with the Drake well at Titusville, PA. However, the Spindletop oil discovery in Texas was the true beginning of the American oil industry. For decades many flowing wells produced thousands of barrels per day. Now, it is likely few, if any, such high rate flowing wells will be discovered.

The best possibilities lie on Alaska’s North Slope (ANWR offers billion barrel reserves with the likelihood of high-rate flowing wells). Exploration of additional shale basins in the US offer sizable oil reserves. However, America will make the leap in discovery of new oil reserves to bring it up to Russia’s level of reserves. Lastly, the cost of finding and procuring these new reserves will be much higher than in the past.

Is there a solution? Yes, but it does not lie with solar or wind generated energy. It lies with nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is safe, efficient, and cost effective. For decades we have propelled our aircraft carriers, submarines and other ocean-going vessels with 1

nuclear power without any activist fears being fulfilled, i.e., core meltdowns or any other serious accidents. In fact, what is the human/animal death count from an onshore nuclear power plant compared to other industrial plants? Unfortunately, uniformed activists and politicians have successfully fear-mongered the use of nuclear power plants and storage of nuclear waste on a scale matched only by the global warming crusaders.

This being said, what is the future of nuclear reactors?

TerraPower announced it will build a next generation nuclear are demonstration reactor at Kemmerer in southwest Wyoming. Terra Power says the reactor will set the tone for a new portfolio of US advanced reactors. Further, the plant will produce nearly 300 million megawatt hours of carbon free power each year and avoid almst 2 million metric tons of carbon. The plant will also produce hydrogen to create synthetic fuels or decarbonize the oil refining process. Two other advanced reactors are expected to be constructed in the Northwest. Hopefully these projects will not be subjected to unreasonable protests and political misinformed dialogue.

Our transition from fossil fuels should begin now. We should continue the use of fossil fuels for transportation, power generation, and manufactured products1

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Some three thousand products including apparel, medicines, plastics and other items come from petroleum and coal. Their manufacture uses 25% of oil, natural gas and coal production.

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