Sea level rise projections for two temperature increases - SN

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Climate change projection shows Buckingham Palace and other world sites surrounded by water Sky News Wednesday 13 October 2021, UK Climate Central says 3C of global warming could mean about 10% of the global population is affected by a rising high-tide line. Landmarks the group has modelled include the Burj Khalifa, Dubai; the Lincoln Memorial, Washington DC; Plaza de Espana, Seville; and the Tower of London.

Image: Worst-case scenarios could be avoided if countries take tough and swift action, says the group. Pic: Climate Central Why you can trust Sky News Buckingham Palace is among the world sites pictured surrounded by water in stark projections showcasing the potential impact of rising sea levels.

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Images modelled by the environmental campaign group Climate Central show how the sea level could encroach on cities like London under the current climate change path of 3C (shown on the right below).

The left-hand picture compares this with a 1.5C rise if "deep and immediate" cuts to carbon emissions are made - dropping to roughly half of today's annual emissions by 2030.

These are extreme predictions which do not take into consideration future flood prevention measures.

You can slide between the two projections.

Buckingham Palace SEE SLIDING PICTURE OF TWO TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS IN LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT TOP OF ARTICLE Climate Central's peer-reviewed study is published in the journal Environmental Research Letters and comes less than a month before the COP26 UN climate change conference.

The Glasgow meeting is seen as a vital opportunity to agree tougher action to limit how much the Earth will warm in the years ahead.

Lloyds Amphitheatre, Bristol SEE SLIDING PICTURE OF TWO TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS IN LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT TOP OF ARTICLE Written in collaboration with researchers at Princeton University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the study says hundreds of coastal cities and land where up to one billion people live are at stake.

It says - on current trends - about 50 major cities will need to mount "unprecedented" defences" or "lose most of their populated areas to unremitting sea level rise lasting hundreds of years".

Merchant City, Glasgow SEE SLIDING PICTURE OF TWO TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS IN LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT TOP OF ARTICLE The campaign group says that while climate and energy choices in the coming decades "could set the destination", the exact timing of sea level rises are difficult to project and "may take hundreds of years to be fully realized".

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The projected effect on more global cities can be viewed using the Picturing Our Future site.

Wales Millennium Centre, Cardiff SEE SLIDING PICTURE OF TWO TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS IN LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT TOP OF ARTICLE Climate Central says 3C of warming could mean about 10% of the global population (more than 800 million people) could be affected by a rising high-tide line.

And it warns that many small island nations could even be totally submerged.

Analysis by Thomas Moore, science correspondent At first reading, it seems impossible that 10% of the world's population is threatened by the rising tide line.

That's 787 million people, after all.

But when you think of geography and human history, it makes complete sense.

For centuries, the sea and rivers were used by people to migrate to new lands.

Settlements flourished in areas with easy access to the water, first for food and then for trade.

The blossoming economies of the new ports attracted a rapidly growing population.

And so we are now in the position where some of the world's great cities are on the edge of the water.

From Kolkata, Mumbai, and Dhaka in Asia, to Lagos in Africa. And New York is vulnerable too.

Sea level rise is already baked in, probably for centuries to come, because of the current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

And the higher they go, the worse the flooding will get.

Tower of London SEE SLIDING PICTURE OF TWO TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS IN LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT TOP OF ARTICLE The landmark 2015 Paris Climate Agreement set the goal of preferably keeping climate change to 1.5C compared with pre-industrial levels.

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The group says hitting such targets could "reduce exposure by roughly half" and do away with the need for untested flood defences or abandoning some coastal cities.

Burj Khalifa, Dubai SEE SLIDING PICTURE OF TWO TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS IN LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT TOP OF ARTICLE Attention is now turning to COP26 - which runs from 31 October to 12 November.

Countries are being asked to show up with ambitious emissions targets for 2030 that align with reaching net-zero by the middle of the century, with the goal of keeping the 1.5C target within reach.

Plaza de Espana, Seville SEE SLIDING PICTURE OF TWO TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS IN LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT TOP OF ARTICLE To meet the targets above, COP's organisers say countries must focus on four areas: Accelerating the phase-out of coal; curtailing deforestation; speeding up the switch to electric vehicles; and encouraging investment in renewables.

Lincoln Memorial, Washington DC SEE SLIDING PICTURE OF TWO TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS IN LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT TOP OF ARTICLE Watch the Daily Climate Show at 6.30pm Monday to Friday on Sky News, the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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NOTE, John Shanahan, Founder allaboutenergy.net: The above scenarios for supposed catastrophic man-made global warming are hypothetical and claim that carbon dioxide from use of fossil fuels is the cause. Meanwhile, the first photo below indicates reality. If it gets colder, we will need all the fossil fuels available or suffer the consequences. The second drawing shows what world leaders are doing.

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