When Fear Kills: The Case of Nuclear Energy (Wade Allison) UK

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When Fear Kills: The Case of Nuclear Energy (pdf version) Presentation · November 2018 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16927.61608

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12 Nov 2018. At the Sir William Dunn School of Pathology, Oxford, a lecture on the choice between energy sources – carbon combustion, nuclear and renewables

When Fear Kills: The Case of Nuclear Energy Wade Allison, Emeritus Professor of Physics Physics Department and Keble College wade.allison@physics.ox.ac.uk

Comment on the title slide The changing climate is likely to dominate our future and it is essential that we all understand our options.

For this everybody should study the broad scientific evidence and be alive to the lessons of history.

This suggests that public policy shaped solely by popular mis-apprehensions is likely to have unfortunate consequences. I have spent the last 15 years looking into this question which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has ignored.

[The books Radiation and Reason and Nuclear is for Life are available on Amazon or from the distributors http://www.ypdbooks.com/81_wade-allison ] 12 Nov 2018

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Join SONE! ÂŁ5 p.a. student membership ÂŁ25 p.a. general membership James Lovelock CH FRS is an active Patron Wade Allison is the Honorary Secretary Anton van der Merwe is a member of the Committee We are looking for new members, especially students 12 Nov 2018

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Energy questions Three turning points in history : i. The domestication of fire, 750,000 years ago; ii. The Industrial Revolution, 250 years ago; iii. Climate Change and the need to switch energy now.

Previously good answers have come from evidence, thought and initiative; rather than from fear, flight to safety or regulation.

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Plan 1. Previous turning points 2. Nuclear evidence 3. Understanding 4. Discussion 5. Conclusions

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1. Previous turning points

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Comment on the previous slide Men and animals were afraid of fire.

But uniquely man used his brain, studied fire, tamed it and educated his children to use it safely.

So mankind gained supremacy over other creatures.

Then with wind and water power for ships and mills, he added to the strength of men and horses alone.

By the safer green route man would still be subsisting in small numbers in the cold and without cooked food.

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Sources of energy Preindustrial, Renewables Industrial Revolution Chemical/ carbon

From now Nuclear fission, fusion

12 Nov 2018

water, wind, solar, biofuels

Energy density 100-1000 J/kg

Familiar, accepted

Intermittent.

Huge plants damage nature

Coal, oil, gas, wood, candles, biofuels

Energy density 24 million J/kg

Improved standard of living

Atmospheric emission carbon dioxide

Uranium, Thorium

Energy density 5 million million J/kg

Compact, safe, 24/7, resilient, harmless to nature

Feared, no education

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Comment on the previous slide Their sources of energy derived indirectly from the Sun. But the energy densities were very low with intermittent delivery.

You can work it out. The energy of a kg of wind, or of water over a dam.

Less than 1000 joules per kg.

Without vast plants they could only sustain a low impoverished population but nature remained unspoilt.

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Sources of energy Preindustrial, Renewables Industrial Revolution Chemical/ carbon

From now Nuclear fission, fusion

12 Nov 2018

water, wind, solar, biofuels

Energy density 100-1000 J/kg

Familiar, accepted

Intermittent.

Huge plants damage nature

Coal, oil, gas, wood, candles, biofuels

Energy density 24 million J/kg

Improved standard of living

Atmospheric emission carbon dioxide

Uranium, Thorium

Energy density 5 million million J/kg

Compact, safe, 24/7, resilient, harmless to nature

Feared, no education

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Comment on the previous slide Turning point 2. Industrial revolution brought coal and steam, oil and gas. 20,000 X the energy density, available 24/7 anywhere.

Living standards rose. Steel replaced wood.

Industry was powered. Steam replaced sail. But emissions!

Turning point 3. climate change and ocean acidification. NO Carbon.

BACK to renewables?

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Three Gorges, China, 1.3 million people displaced

A green field buried by solar panels, Abingdon

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Comment on the previous slide Weakness means harvesting on a huge scale, deeply damaging to nature.

Solar panels shrouding green meadows.

Similar for wind farms.

Vast hydro. 100s miles long, 1.3 million displaced

by Three Gorges Dam in China Renewables are ill prepared for the extreme weather that climate change brings.

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Moran et al, in Proc National Academy of Sciences 2 Nov 2018 http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/11/02/1809426115 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46098118 “North American and European countries built many large dams until 1975, after which both started to abandon a significant part of their installed hydropower because of the negative social and environmental impacts. However, there has been a recent trend of new large hydropower dams being built in developing countries, particularly in megabiodiversity river basins, such as the Amazon, the Congo, and the Mekong. The socioeconomic and environmental damages in these river systems are even greater than the early costs in North America and Europe.”

“Large dams seem to be everything that one should not try to build if one cares about sustainability.”

“3,450 dams have been removed to date in Sweden, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and France hundreds of dams were removed in the United States (546 from 2006 to 2014) and Europe at enormous financial cost.”

“The Jirau Dam and Santo Antonio Dam on the Madeira River in the Brazilian Amazon, completed only 5 years ago, are predicted to produce only a fraction of the 3 GW each that they were projected to produce because of climate change and the small storage capacity of run-of-the-river reservoirs.”

“Hydropower is the world’s primary renewable energy resource, but questions have been raised about its reliability under projected climate change. In Brazil, which depends on hydropower for up to 67% of its electrical energy (48), this is a crisis waiting to happen.”

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Sources of energy Preindustrial, Renewables Industrial Revolution Chemical/ carbon

From now Nuclear fission, fusion

12 Nov 2018

water, wind, solar, biofuels

Energy density 100-1000 J/kg

Familiar, accepted

Intermittent.

Huge plants damage nature

Coal, oil, gas, wood, candles, biofuels

Energy density 24 million J/kg

Improved standard of living

Atmospheric emission carbon dioxide

Uranium, Thorium, Fusion

Energy density 5 million million J/kg

Compact, safe, 24/7, resilient, harmless to nature

Feared, no education

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Comment on the previous slide Nuclear energy:100,000 times the energy density of coal. Uranium now, Thorium soon, fusion definitely but later.

100,000 times less fuel, and so 100,000 times less waste, than carbon fuels.

Plants can be compact, robust, 24/7, build anywhere, secure fuel supplies, safe, no environmental impact at all.

In Hurricane Harvey in Texas nuclear kept running 100% throughout.

But a source of public fear and nobody was taught about it in school.

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Comment on the previous slide Data on electricity generation and consumption (but not all energy) is available in real time for many countries on the internet, free.

Here is one example for UK, April 2018.

Green=nuclear. Steady. Demand fluctuates.

Blue=gas makes the difference. wind and solar fluctuate unreliably.

Without gas, excess nuclear could supply hydrogen/desalination/heating when demand low.

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A bad day in Britain: almost no solar/wind. Good supply in France and Scandinavia 12 Nov 2018

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Comment on the previous slide International data shows imports/exports, eg the 2 GW undersea UK supply from France.

With its nuclear+hydro generation France does not use much gas, even for heating.

UK gas supply for electricity and heating is insecure -- Russia, Middle East, US and North Sea. Much of Europe is the same – or burning coal or wood.

Despite the politics Germany still has nuclear.

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2. Nuclear Evidence Is it dangerous?

Chernobyl (1986) The wasteland, the deaths and the animals Fukushima (2011) Goiania (1987)

A century of medical use Animal (and in vitro) laboratory studies

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Comment on the previous slide The pervasive cultural apprehension of nuclear is crucial. The evidence for the effects of radiation is examined extensively in my books.

Here I talk about Chernobyl, Fukushima, Goiania and others later.

Chernobyl was the worst incident.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32452085

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Comment on the previous slide and the following ones Chernobyl 1986. Everyone was led to expect thousands deaths and a huge area, which was evacuated at short notice, to be uninhabitable for many decades.

Wrong? Or a new Wildlife Park? Pictures taken

by BBC (and others by Discovery Channel) show animals thriving, radioactive but better off with no humans than before.

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Comment on the previous slide Do the animals know something that we don’t?

“But they know nothing” Doctor Watson might say.

“Quite so” Sherlock Holmes might reply, “but we may know something that isn't true.”

Have we got it ALL WRONG about radiation?

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Chernobyl summary Only 43 human lives lost from radiation.

28 early fireman and 15 thyroid cancer cases.

But huge social damage was caused to evacuees by the curse “irradiated�, alcoholism, hopelessness, mental illness (reported by WHO) And 2000 extra abortion procedures in Greece, just out of fear. (British Medical Journal) Yet animals seem unaffected by radiation.

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Comment on the previous slide Evidently the curse that damaged human lives came from the emergency measures and the evacuation, not the radiation.

1) We need more evidence to confirm this 2) We need to understand why the expectations were so wrong.

Nobody corrects this fallacy in public.

Nobody thinks that it is their job.

All the more reason for us to pursue it.

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But then the story repeated at Fukushima!

Reassurance 26 Mar 2011 only days later

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com/qUx7WZD5P1Nfu4CP/www.bbc.comhttps ://screenshots.firefox.com/qUx7WZD5P1Nfu4C P/www.bbc.comttps://screenshots.firefox.com/ qUx7WZD5P1Nfu4CP/www.bbc.comreenshots .firefox.com/qUx7WZD5P1Nfu4CP/www.bbc.c om

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Comment on the previous slide Another UN report on Chernobyl was published on 28 Feb 2011 but not read in Japan.

Then on 11 Mar the Fukushima accident occurred.

On 26 Mar I published this reassurance on the BBC.

However, the world press who preferred fear, excitement and social destruction - and still do.

Over a year later the UN also reassured, but too late to avoid the damage to public health 12 Nov 2018

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Visit to Chernobyl Sept 2011

Discussion with radiation doctors Minamisoma General Hospital Sept 2011

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Slide 41

Comment on the previous slide In Sept 2011 I visited the evacuation zone and the surrounding region.

I talked with doctors in the local hospitals where they were scanning the public for contamination, with local schoolmasters and with local mayors of the communities involved.

Everywhere there was ignorance about radiation, resulting in a loss of trust in science and in the competence of the authorities.

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What happened at Fukushima 1. Major earthquake and tsunami Cause (natural) radioactivity heating the Earth.

Physical destruction & 18,800 deaths. Natural

disaster

2. Three destroyed nuclear reactors at Fukushima Daiichi with release of (artificial) radioactivity.

No casualties, none expected in future. No disaster

3. Local and worldwide panic caused by excessively cautious safety, lack of plan / education Displaced people (1600 extra deaths), condemned food, power stations turned off, imported fossil fuel, severe economic damage, reduced trust in society, science and medicine

Self inflicted education failure, not due to radiation 12 Nov 2018

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Slide 43

Comment on the previous slide The Japanese people learn about earthquakes and tsunamis, and practice what to do.

They accepted the disastrous loss of 18,800 lives.

But in the radiation accident no life was lost and there was no disaster.

However the administrative panic, inept evacuation and suspension of nuclear power around the world was a socio-economic and environmental disaster worse than Chernobyl.

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Many of the deaths from panic evacuation occurred among the elderly in carehomes as these published data show.

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Slide 45

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Comment on the previous slide Goiania 1987 Radio-therapy unit was stolen from a disused clinic for scrap. The Cs-137 source was split open. It gave a pretty blue glow in the air! Children played with it in the kitchen, it got on their skin and in their food.

249 were significantly contaminated, >50 internally 4 died in a few weeks. 28 had surgery for burns.

Zero cases of cancer from radiation in 25 years.

Cases of mental health, alcoholism, depression from the label “Irradiated�.

Despite this two women had normal births.

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Goiania Whole-body internal Cs-137 activity

compared to Fukushima and K-40 No

Whole body activity

Persons

Deaths

Relative activity

Goiania Cs137

Above 1000 MBq

1

1 ARS death

>100,000

Goiania Cs137

100 to 1000 MBq

7

3 ARS death

>10,000

Goiania Cs137

10 to 100 MBq

20

Goiania Cs137

1 to 10 MBq

23

Goiania Cs137

1/10 to 1 MBq

15

Goiania Cs137

1/100 to 1/10 MBq

11

Fukushima adults Cs137

At or below 1/100 MBq

32811

Not expected

Everybody natural K40

4/1000 MBq

all

--

1491

Not expected

Fukushima children Cs137 12 Nov 2018

All below 2/1000 MBq

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>1,000 No deaths or cancers in 25 years

>100

>10 >1

Less than 1

Slide 48

Comment on the previous slide In this table each line is for a measured Cs-137 internal radioactivity 1/10 of the line above.

Half of the Goiania residents on the first two lines died of Acute Radiation Syndrome in a few weeks.

None of the 32,811 Fukushima residents had a measured activity as much as 1/10,000 of the lowest casualty at Goiania (4 lines, as shown by the green arrow).

None of these Fukushima residents could reasonably be affected.

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3. The Understanding What is going on here?

It is time for some proper science, not just data and pictures.

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Questions of energy Resting metabolic rate 1 watt/ kg so set as safe level for MRI and ultrasound.

By definition 1 Gy/second = 1 Sv/second = 1 watt/kg Actual safe level for ionising radiation about 1 Sv/year = 30 nano watt/kg Question: Why so low? more than 30 million times smaller than MRI and ultrasound [Regulation “safe� level, 1000 times lower typically 1 mSv/year = 0.03 nano watt/kg] 12 Nov 2018

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Comment on the previous slide Radiation levels are described as “low” or “high”, with a number and an unfamiliar unit.

(On the previous slide) we compare radiation dose rates with a high MRI or UltraSound power level in watts per kg.

Conclusion: you cannot feel a radiation dose rate, even a lethal one.

But why is such a low power dangerous when a similar MRI or ultrasound one is not?

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The answer is Quantum Theory: “Radiation not absorbed uniformly, but as number of local bursts called Quanta�

(Photoelectric Effect, Einstein 1905)

Each burst can break/ionise a molecule, as oxygen also can.

The immediate damage is linear (physics/chemistry) But living tissue is alive: it responds by looking after itself!

When life began, radiation was several times higher than today.

So from the start it needed protection to survive.

The biology had to mend the damage itself with the resources available.

If there is too much damage, the resources are insufficient and some damage persists.

Hence there is a threshold and the response is non-linear.

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Comment on the previous slide [Einstein got his Nobel Prize for this explanation of the absorption of radiation, not for E=mc2] 10 mGy CT scan will ionise 2 for every 5,000 million atoms. These 2 are smashed, but the others are not damage at all.

Total damage = sum of independent bursts.

So the initial damage is linear in the energy.

Alive: Biology works with the other cells to sense and remove the damaged one. In 2.5 billion yrs it evolved several ways to do that, resources permitting‌.

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Comment on the previous slide When resources run out, failures begin – the threshold.

The straight line is a naĂŻve misuse of maths. The Precautionary Principle and the Linear NoThreshold (LNT) lie behind the over-safe mantra ALARA, As Low As Reasonably Achievable LNT is the source of the many predicted deaths at Chernobyl/Fukushima at low/moderate doses.

Unfortunately it is still used by safety authorities, with dangerous legal and financial consequences.

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How Biology has designed the survival of life Create many copies, and some will survive.

Implemented on two separate Darwinian scales

1. Society composed of many individual organisms compete/communicate, sense/react to macroscale attack refreshed by replacement on a birth-reproduction-death cycle; 2. Each individual organism composed of many cells compete/communicate, sense/react to microscale attack refreshed by replacement on the faster “cell cycle�.

Microscale attack = oxidation by oxidants or radiation.

Countered by antioxidants, repair, suicide, replacement, adaptation and monitoring by the immune police.

Brilliant, amazing, the protection works!

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Comment on the previous slide Microscale attacks by oxygen/radiation are too small to be sensed by the individual organism.

Protection is devolved to cells and groups of cells.

However, giving an individual organism without any understanding an instrument that detects microscale attacks simply causes confusion.

The individual tries to gain radiological protection when he is already fully covered.

The result was seen at Fukushima and Chernobyl.

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1. These failure curves are not mathematical and should not be taken too seriously – they vary.

2. Biology does not need/want individuals to worry about a microscale attack and engage in Radiation Protection for low and moderate radiation dose rates because that is already fully devolved to the cellular level.

3. Failure at the cellular level usually alerts the individual by inflammation.

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The 3 caveats on the previous slide 1. With exercise and a history of repair, supplies of enzymes and antioxidants are increased. Then the threshold for irreversible is increased. This happens when we take exercise and get fit. So the curve changes, and is differs depending on the stress and individual. eg inoculation.

However for attacks by radiation and oxygen there is a regular call on supplies, keeping the threshold up within a certain range.

2. This is the punchline.

3. When cells cry to the organism for help 12 Nov 2018

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Living, loving and laughing with UV radiation

a positive image with a sensible public safety message on a free carrier bag from a high street pharmacy 12 Nov 2018

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slide 61

Comment on the previous slide In the radiation spectrum UV lies near X-rays.

Like nuclear radiation UV ionises. The numbers differ but the principles are similar – and familiar Cell death and recovery in the short term.

Skin cancer in the long term if immunity fails.

Sensible advice allows people to enjoy family holidays in the sun. Adaptation, recovery and timing are taught - without a UN Committee.

With 9000 deaths a year in US, UV is more serious than nuclear radiation – but still not geopolitical.

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Comment on the previous slide For low and moderate levels of ionising radiation, the competition to protect is like the race between the tortoise and the hare.

The hare regulates everybody but provides no actual protection and is based on 60 years of radiation protection theory.

The tortoise wins the race providing actual protection on the basis of 3.5 billion years of dynamic experience.

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4. Discussion Recovery and chronic irradiation: clinical radiotherapy fractionation dial painters and life-long Radium exposure dogs and life-long doses and more (books).

How we got here: Cold War and politics (books) What to do: Nightingale and her diagrams safety limits and a draft diagram 12 Nov 2018

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Comment on the previous slide The threshold value? Same for all? No. But a single conservative safety figure is needed.

What is the effect of chronic irradiation. Recovery time is less than a month, cell cycle related.

In radiotherapy a treatment dose spread over 5-6 weeks, if given as a single dose is locally fatal.

Evidence for injurious chronic doses is hard to find. Here are some on 1) Dial Painters and 2) whole-of-life data on dogs.

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Lifelong human data: Dial Painters luminous watches and dials painted with radium paint

Bone cancer usually 1/400. Evidence for threshold: (Rowland 1997) 1339 painters with less than 10,000mGy, 0 cases [3 expected] 191 painters with more than 10,000mGy, 46 cases. [<1 expected] 12 Nov 2018

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slide 67

Comment on the previous slide From 1914 until 1950 the dials of watches and instruments were hand-painted with radium so as to be seen in the dark. The painters licked the tip of their brushes for the finest work.

The radium was absorbed into their bones like calcium and remained until they died. In 1926 the cause of the bone cancer was diagnosed and the licking was stopped. After that there were no further cases. The threshold at 10,000 mGy, whole of life, is widely agreed.

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Mortality of beagle dogs given a whole-of-life chronic whole-body dose of gamma rays

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Comment on the previous slide Dogs live long enough to compare with humans, unlike mice. Those fed 100 mGy per month regularly throughout life show the same mortality as controls up to 8 years, marked by the red line at 9000 mGy. This threshold is similar to the Dial Painter threshold at 10,000 mGy. It suggests a threshold chronic rate of 100 mGy per month.

The Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors show a acute threshold of about 100 mGy. These and other figures indicate what is needed.

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How to persuade others?

Follow a historical example Florence Nightingale tackled the cultural/political blindness to infection in military hospitals.

- She studied the evidence - She reached statistical conclusions - She drew coloured diagrams that all might understand - She published at her own expense and got political attention for new standards of nursing To persuade others we should follow similar methods 12 Nov 2018

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Comment on the previous slide What can we do to persuade others who simply do not accept necause their minds are closed?

History tells how Florence Nightingale had a similar problem.

Nobody wanted to hear what happened inside military hospitals, but she knew the soldiers were dying from infection not their wounds.

She was an accomplished statistician and used her skills to force the evidence-blind generals and politicians of the day to change their policy.

She succeeded.

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The example of Florence Nightingale (1858):

- get the data - draw the diagrams - tell the people - leave no doubt

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slide 73

Comment on the previous slide It is wonderful what you can find on the Web! Here is one of her original hand-coloured plots.

Perhaps not as helpful as a modern pie diagram, but it was sufficient to win over the politicians of the day so that they understood the benefits of proper nursing.

What can we do to show radiation dose rates in proportion in a similar without resorting to numerical doses?

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Showing the size of different monthly radiation doses as the area of circles RED dose to a tumour treated in a course of radiotherapy; YELLOW dose tolerated by healthy tissue near a treated rumour; GREEN dose with 100% recovery record (also shown magnified); BLACK DOT officially â&#x20AC;&#x153;safeâ&#x20AC;? for public, 1000 smaller than green circle (also shown magnified)

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Comment on the previous slide The area of the overlaid circles describe monthly radiation dose rates. The RED and YELLOW are the LOCAL doses received by a tumour and the nearby tissue in a radiotherapy treatment.

The GREEN circle,100 mGy per month, is a safe recoverable radiation dose rate â&#x20AC;&#x201C; as received by the dogs for 8 years.

This is 1000 times larger than the over-cautious current recommended public level, the little black dot on the green circle. [In 1934 the ICRP recommended a value 60 mGy/month.]

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5. Conclusions Radiological safety regulations should discard LNT and use a threshold rate, such as 60 mGy per month (ICRP 1934).

Public health reassurance should be given that lesser rates are not generally carcinogenic and that previous guidance based on LNT/ALARA was misjudged and is withdrawn.

The related cost reductions to nuclear technology and health services should be carried through as soon as possible. Long term dose records should not be kept for safety purposes.

Safety is a matter of personal understanding, not just compliance: All children should learn substantially more positive science with practical attention to radiation, as for fire and UV, for example.

As fast as possible countries should start a major programme in nuclear power with supporting public education to mitigate climate change.

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