Actual temperature versus climate models (Bryan Leyland) New Zealand

Link: http://www.bryanleyland.co.nz/future-temperature-trends.html Please see link above for original article, embedded hot links and comments.

Climate model temperatures can match actual temperature trends by 2040 only if we have unprecedented warming over the next 25 years Bryan Leyland

As you can see from the chart, the average of the five leading temperature data sets shows that the world has not warmed since 2001. (Chart from WUWT/Monckton) Most people who believe in dangerous man-made global warming appear to be confident that the world will soon start to warm again and in 20 or 30 years time the predictions of the climate models will have proved to be correct. Many also tell us that we will have reached the 2° "tipping point" where, they claim, irreversible climatic changes will occur by 2050.

The chart below illustrates the simplest of many possible future temperature profiles that would cause the actual trend line match up with the predicted trend line. Although the temperatures match by 2023 it is not until 2040 that the trend lines will be the same. A warming trend of 4.8°/century is needed to make model and actual temperature trend lines equal by 2040.

1

The actual warming trend from 1979 to 2014 is 1.2°/century and the UAH trend from 1998 to 2014 is 0.5° per century. Between 1975 and 1995, the warming was 1.7°/century.

Temperature increases far above the range of credibility are required for the actual trend lines to match the trend lines based on computer models.

The chart below shows the warming trajectory at a rate of 5° per century needed if temperatures are to increase to the 2° "tipping point" by 2050. What could drive such a huge rate of increase? It cannot be carbon dioxide because a steady increase in carbon dioxide over the last 17 years has failed to provide any significant warming. The obvious conclusion is that there is no chance of reaching the 2° point by 2050 and the chance of reaching the two degree "tipping point" any time before the end of the century is remote. Even if the predictions of the climate models one day turn out to be correct, dangerous man-made global warming is, most definitely, far from being an imminent risk. The global warmers can relax!

2

When I questioned Dr Jim Renwick, a leading New Zealand climate scientist about this he sent me the plot of a computer prediction showing how temperatures could return to the level predicted. Obviously he had not realised that the predictions will be correct only if the two trend lines matched. The actual temperatures need to overshoot the predictions so that the area where the temperature is below the predictions is matched by the area above predictions. Only then would trend lines match. Given his position as a senior climate scientist, his ignorance of this key point is shocking.

In response to the same query Dr Wratt, a leading IPCC author, sent me a quotation 3

from a statement he made in 2006 to the effect that “…natural year to year climatic fluctuations will be superimposed on the overall warming trend, and it is not possible to predict the precise state of these fluctuations 2–3 years ahead.”

Predictions by Dr Wratt, Dr Renwick, and many other IPCC related climate scientists that temperature trends will align after two or three years have not come true.

In spite of this they still appear to believe that, one day, the measured temperatures will increase rapidly and line up with the models. As the above charts show, it cannot be this side of 2050. Given the failure of the models to predict the lack of warming over the last 18 years, the argument that the models will, one day provide accurate predictions seems more and more difficult to support.

Nevertheless, based on their statements of faith in the models, trillions of dollars are being squandered on carbon taxes, renewable energy, and futile research into non-existent global warming.

4