Nuclear Energy Constraints and Possibilities in the India of 2011 (Robinder Sachdev)

IMAGINDIA The Imagindia Institute

Nuclear Energy Constraints and Possibilities in the India of 2011

3rd National Conference on Nuclear Energy ASSOCHAM – Nuclear Energy Group New Delhi July 7, 2011

IMAGINDIA The Imagindia Institute

Discussion Outline Opening Remarks Zeros around nuclear energy

Dangers around nuclear energy Trends in global response post-Fukushima India - The Banyan Tree

Hard Options for India

Background

About Imagindia…

Independent Analyst

Think-do-tank U.S. – India civil nuclear accord

World Energy Council India Nominee re Fukushima impact Japan – India civil nuclear accord

ZEROS AROUND NUCLEAR ENERGY

The engine of India’s development needs all gears meshing seamlessly

The zero sum game of nuclear versus renewable

…versus…

The (unclear) perception of unknown zeros in comparative costs

The zero sum game of international cooperation

‌versus‌

The zero sum debate of domestic versus foreign technologies

DANGERS AROUND NUCLEAR ENERGY

The danger of a Three Mile, Chernobyl, Fukushima…next?

Normal Accident Theory – developed by Yales sociologist Charles Perrow after investigating the Three Mile Island accident best summarizes the scientific truth - in any complex system there will occur sometimes a series of unusual outcomes, that taken individually will not trigger a horrific accident, but put them together, and you get a crash

It is disingenuous to argue infallibility – probability versus possibility

TRENDS IN GLOBAL RESPONSE POST-FUKUSHIMA

Sovereign Review

Public Concern & Focus

Industry Review

Multiple Reviews and Introspections Ongoing National Interest

Technology Re-look Global and Multilateral Agencies Industry Platforms (ASSOCHAM) Vendors, Supply Chain Vocal Public Interest

me‌?

Review of regulatory mechanism Await and track Fukushima findings +

Transparency Review of safeguards

other

Review of Sovereign Interest

Improved attempts at public communications

Review of disaster preparedness

Review of site selection procedures

US – India accord

Atoms for Peace Traditionally aligned with geopolitical interest

NSG Re-processing Thorium

Review of Industry India

+

Scientific, no hurry, slogging, innovating

Exploitation of uranium as source since it generates weapons grade material

“Culture”

now deliverables under microscope

India NPT Touch NPT? Say hello to Mr. Porcupine

Thorium

INDIA

yes I desperately need energy I’ve lived without power since countless years what is another 2-3 years?

I hear about plans every 2-4 years

will see meanwhile, come, have a cuppa chai

The Banyan Tree The Consumer is Agnostic

…but changing, demanding demographic…

Tech Routes do not Matter

HARD OPTIONS FOR INDIA POST-NSG One. Keep aside NSG. One sixth of global humanity means some thing. Period.

Two. Do not buy or ink any deals with any vendor that is constrained by their domestic laws. Same as India is constrained by its national interest and laws.

Three.

Domestic capacity – take a hard, harsh, and demanding answer from DAE, NPCIL, UCIL, et al – and private sector Four.

If all India needs is uranium fuel – then India must go invest in mines anywhere in the world. Compete aggressively. Export small reactors and barter deals Five.

Thorium. Invest on mission mode to accelerate exploitation of Thorium World reserves of uranium will not last beyond 70-80 years… …be the Saudi Arabia of bundled solutions 20 years from now

Thanks