Man's Role in Climate Change (Marty Cornell) USofA

Man’s Role in Climate Change: A Student’s Understanding

Marty Cornell October 26, 2009

Does the Science Support Human-Induced Global Warming?

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“Few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent that combating climate change. The Science is Beyond dispute and the facts are clear.�

President-elect Barack Obama, November 19, 2008

Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy, Nobel Prize Physics, 1997

“Science has unambiguously shown that we’re altering the destiny of our planet” “The science is clear, we’re boiling our planet” 2009 speech at Tsinghua University, China

“With all due respect Mr. President, that is not true.” +100 PhD Scientists in LA Times Ad, March 30, 2009

“…..The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior.”….

The Issue: Climate Change Global Warming Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Carbon-based (CAGW)

Two Views on Global Warming Proponents of CAGW (“alarmists”, “environmentalists”) Earth has warmed 0.6OC last century

Proponents of Natural Cycles (“skeptics”, “deniers”, “flat earthers”) Earth has warmed 0.6OC last century

CO2 GHG driven, amplified by H2O

Solar Cycle driven, forcings to be determined

Driving to tipping point crisis of run-away heat

Current trend is minor and nothing unusual

Computer model projections

Empirical Data

James E. Hansen, CAGW Proponent NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

26 April 2007 testimony to the Select Committee of Energy Independence and Global Warming of the U. S. House of Representatives entitled "Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate" Air temperatures of the last quarter-century have been unprecedented for at least the past two thousand years.

The atmosphere's current CO2 concentration is greater than it may have been for tens of millions of years.

The earth "is close to dangerous climate change, to tipping points of the system with the potential for irreversible deleterious effects."

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summarizes the peer reviewed literature on climate every five years

What?

Physical Science Basis

So What?

Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Now What?

Mitigation

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Summary for Policy Makers Written by an assemblage of representative from governments and NGO’s, with only a small scientific representation.

Provide the science to support the need to control greenhouse gas levels.

“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade

People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade

“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade

People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade

“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade

People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade

“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade

People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade

“Natural changes cannot account for the significant long-term warming in the historical global surface temperature anomalies.� Lean & Rind, 2008 ENSO = 0.002 OC/decade Aerosols = -0.001 OC/decade Solar = 0.007 OC/decade

People = ~ 0.06 OC/decade

Richard S. Lindzen, CAGW Skeptic Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 26, 2009

The notion of a static, unchanging climate is foreign to the history of the earth or any other planet with a fluid envelope.

The fact that the developed world went into hysterics over changes in global mean temperature anomaly of a few tenths of a degree will astound future generations.

Such hysteria simply represents the scientific illiteracy of much of the public, the susceptibility of the public to the substitution of repetition for truth, and the exploitation of these weaknesses by politicians, environmental promoters, and, after 20 years of media drum beating, many others as well.

Global Warming Petition Project 31,478 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs

Roger A. Pielke, Both Natural and AGW Senior Research Scientist at CIRES, emeritus professor of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, retired.

“The focus on just CO2 as the dominate human climate forcing is too narrow.

Natural variations are still quite important.

Human influence is significant, but it involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO2. �

Emission of aerosols into the atmosphere, Land management and land cover change.

$79 Billion so far

e.g. carbon sequestration

“Climate Money”, Joan Nova, via The Science and Public Policy Institute, July, 2009

Cap & Trade Cost $1,761 per Household Source: US Treasury

What Does the Science Say? What is Climate?

What causes climate change?

How do we measure climate change?

Is the current warming unusual?

How much of the current warming is due to man vs. nature?

Climate is what you expect.

Weather is what you get.

Brazoria County Airport Weekly Mean Temperature, OF

Annual Precipitation, Inches Wind Speed, mph

What Does the Science Say? What is Climate?

What causes climate change?

Components of the Climate System Changes in the Atmosphere: Composition, Circulation

Changes in Solar Inputs

Changes in the Hydrological Cycle

Clouds Atmosphere

N2, O2, Ar,

Volcanic Activity

H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.

Atmosphere-Biosphere Interaction

Aerosols Atmosphere-Ice Interaction

Precipitation Evaporation

Terrestrial Radiation

Heat Wind Exchange Stress

Human Influences

Ice Sheet

Glaciers

Biosphere Soil-Biosphere Interaction

Sea Ice

Hydrosphere: Ocean Ice-Ocean Coupling

LandAtmosphere Interaction

Land Surface Hydrosphere: Rivers & Lakes

Changes in the Ocean: Circulation, Sea Level, Biogeochemistry

Changes in the Cryosphere: Snow, Frozen Ground, Sea Ice, Ice Sheets, Glaciers Changes in/on the Land Surface:Orography, Land Use, Vegetation, Ecosystems

ERBE Earth Radiation Budget Experiment 3 satellites, 1st launched in 1984 Measure energy exchanges between sun, earth, & space Albedo (reflectance) OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) Effect of clouds

Emission Spectra of the Sun and Earth

JunkScience.com, Updated August 2007

107

Reflected Solar Radiation 107 Wm-2

235

Reflected by Clouds, Aerosol, and Atmospheric Gases 77 Wm-2

Outgoing Longwave Radiation 235 Wm-2

Incoming Solar Radiation 342 Wm-2 Emitted by 165 Atmosphere 30 Emitted by clouds

77

40 Atmospheric Window Greenhouse Gases

67 Absorbed by Atmosphere Latent 78 Heat Reflected by Surface

30 168 Absorbed

by Surface

350

390 24 78 EvapoSurface Thermals transpiration Radiation

40 324 Back Radiation

324 Absorbed by Surface

Without greenhouse gases, the earth would be 33 OC (59.4 OF) cooler!

i.e. -18OC instead of +15OC

NASA CERES Satellite

33 Wm-2 Reflected

by Clouds

235 Wm-2 Outgoing Longwave Radiation

TESTING TESTING YOUR YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IQ IQ

The # 1 Green House Gas Is:

The # 2 Greenhouse Gas Is:

The # 3 Greenhouse Gas Is:

Contribution Contributionof of Anthropogenic AnthropogenicGreenhouse GreenhouseGases Gases to tothe theNatural NaturalGreenhouse GreenhouseEffect Effect Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect

Global Greenhouse Effect

(2 - 10)% Tropospheric Ozone (2 - 10)% Nitrous Oxide (0 - 10)% Stratospheric H2O Remaining Greenhouse Gases (5 - 40)%

(5 - 25)% Halocarbons (10 - 25)% Methane

(0.5 - 1.5)% Water Vapor (60 - 95)%

(35 - 65)% Carbon Dioxide

Hans Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini, Emissions and Air Quality, SAE, 1999

TESTING TESTING YOUR YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IQ IQ

The primary source of CO2 emissions is……..

TESTING TESTING YOUR YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IQ IQ The primary source of CO2 emissions is:

“…..the transportation sector now accounts for about third of all CO2 MIT gotone it WRONG! emissions in the US and road transportation is three quarters of that third.”

Malcom A. Weiss, John B. Heywood, Elizabeth M. Drake, Andreas Schafer, Felix F. AuYeung; ON THE ROAD IN 2020, A life cycle analysis of new automobile technologies, Energy Laboratory Report # MIT EL 00-003, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, October, 2000

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton

“The United She got it WRONG! States and China emit 45% of the world’s greenhouse gases.”

Press release prior to her Feb., 2009 trip to China

Scatter Scatter Band Band of of Global Global Annual Annual CO Emissions (ref. (ref. year year == 1996) 1996) CO22 Emissions Biomass Burning 1% Soil 28%

Vegetation 28%

Oceans 43%

Peter Lenz and Christian Cozzarini, “State of Worldwide Anthropogenic and Natural Emissions Forecast of Traffic Emissions in Western Industrial Countries”, FISITA F98P008

~36,000 Billion Tons Carbon in Oceans Mauna Loa

0.038% (dry air)

TESTING TESTING YOUR YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL IQ IQ

The #1 source of man made CO2 is……

Distribution Distribution of of Worldwide Worldwide Annual Annual Anthropogene Emission Anthropogene CO CO22--Emission Private Home Heating and Small Consumers 20%

Incineration of Biomass 15%

28 Gt/yr.

Industry 20%

Traffic 17%

32% Cars

33% Trucks

12% Other Traffic 6% Ocean Ships 17% Air Traffic

Power Stations 28%

Background Forcings

Climate “Forcings� Change Energy Balance The Sun Clouds (type and amount) Aerosols & Particulates Albedo (reflectivity) Land Use (vegetation, Urban Heat Island) Green House Gas Concentration

Milankovitch Cycles Drive Ice Age Cycles 21,000 year cycle elliptical orbit combined with tilt (precession of the equinoxes) 41,000 year cycle of the +/- 1.5O wobble (tilt) 100,000 year cycle variation of the shape of earth’s elliptical orbit (cycle of eccentricity)

Eccentricity of Earth’s Orbit National Academy of Sciences

Ice Volume Del 18O %

More Ice

Planktonic Foram 18O as Proxy

Polar Bear Sub-species

Less Ice

1,000 of Years Ago

Note: Sea Level incorrect.

This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams

This map courtesy of Jonathan Adams

The Holocene Optimum

Oceans ~-120m = ~ -400 feet!

During Last Glacial Maximum

http://uk.encarta.msn.com/media_461527006/ice_extent_during_the_last_ice_age.html

~14mm/year

Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com

20.2 cm/122 years = ~0.17 cm/year

Image from GlobalWarmingArt.com

Sea Level Change 21Aug09

54 mm

16.6 years

Data via Climate Audit from climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

Ice Volume Del O-18 %

More Ice

Less Ice

Planktonic Foram O-18 as Proxy

“Eustatic sea level was higher than present during this last interglacial by ~4 to ~6 meters�

IPCC 4TAR, Palaeoclimate, p 458

1,000 of Years Ago

NASA & ESA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory

SOHO Spotless Days Current Stretch: 75 days 2009 total: 217 days Since 2004: 728 days Typical Solar Min: 485 days

2009/09/23

Faculae

11 Year Cycle of Solar Variability +/- 0.1 Wm-2

Sunspot Number

Sunspot Number X 100

~1.0

OC

cooler

150

~ 50 sunspots over 30 year period, vs. 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots per 30 years in modern times

100 50

Little Ice Age

Frozen Thames, 1677

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Solar Cycle & Sea Level

( via Tide Gauges)

Recall the NASA current 3.3 mm/year rise rate since 1994

Sun Summary The Sun dominates Earth’s climate.

Earth’s orbit eccentricities cause major climate changes: Ice Ages Interglacials, ~5.5 OC swings in temperature average, Ice ages dominate (70% - 90% of 100,000 yr cycle).

Ice Ages decrease vegetation, increase deserts.

Sea levels have risen 120 m since the last glacial maximum.

Today’s temperatures are not unusual, having been equaled or exceeded at least 3 times since the last glacial maximum. ~11 year solar cycles strongly correlate with climate changes during interglacial periods.

Low sunspots ~ -1OC. Modern sea level fluctuations highly correlate with solar cycle.

Solar +/- 0.1 Wm-2 not sufficient by itself to cause current warming; need amplifier, forcing feedback.

Magnetic field of solar winds Affect cosmic rays reaching Earth’s atmosphere Henrik Svensmark on Global Warming, youtube.com

+/- Low level clouds

High (6 km) Cirrus Clouds Warm Earth

Low Clouds Reflect Sunlight Cool Earth

Photo by Robert Campbell

Measuring Earth’s Albedo

Observed Earthshine

From 20th century GHG Increase

Calibration Band

From satellite cloud data

Strength of Solar Wind +/- Magnetic Field -/+ Cosmic Rays Magnetosphere

Bow shock line

Sun’s Turbulent Magnetic Fields

Illustration by Janet Kozyra with images from NASA, Journal of Geophysical Research – Space Physics.

Svensmark Hypothesis The Cosmos

Cosmic Rays

Create Seeds of Low-lying Clouds

Reflect 33 Wm-2

Svensmark Hypothesis A more active Sun decreases the amounts of low-lying clouds, which means that it warms the Earth.

Creates Seeds of Low-lying Clouds

Ra

Co

ic

sm ic

Ra

ys

sm Co

The Cosmos

ys

Since 1987 Implies ~ -5% Cloud H2O ~ +1OC

The Solar – Climate Relationship

Lower Magnetic Field Strength

More Sunlight Reflected Into Space

Earth Becomes Cooler

Fewer Sunspots

More Low Level Cloud Formation

Less Solar Wind

More Galactic Cosmic Rays

Solar Flux

Inverse of Cosmic Rays Ocean Heat Flux

Atlantic Ocean Heat Flux Sea Level Rise

SST w/out ENSO

Sea Surface Temp.

CO2

GCR

Icehouse Greenhouse

Shaviv & Veizer, GSA Today, 2003

Million Years BP

CO2

GCR

Icehouse Greenhouse

Shaviv & Veizer, GSA Today, 2003

Million Years BP

El Capitan, Guadalupe Mountains

Coral reef formed ~260 million years ago…. …..when atmospheric CO2 was ~2000 ppm

Correlation recently reported between solar/GCR variability and temperature in Siberia from glacial ice core, 30 yr lag (ie. ocean currents may be part of response)

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Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009

Inquisition of Dr. Henrik Svensmark

Jasper Kirkby /CERN CERN Colloquium, 4 June 2009

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Cause? CLOUDS Result? and Temperature “When researchers observe natural changes in clouds and temperature, they have traditionally assumed that the temperature change caused the clouds to change, and not the other way around.

To the extent that the cloud changes actually cause temperature change, this can ultimately lead to overestimates of how sensitive Earth’s climate is to our greenhouse gas emissions.”

Dr. Roy W. Spencer, University of Alabama in Huntsville,

Atmospheric Solar Heat Amplifier Meehl Hypothesis, Science, 28Aug09

Peak Solar Cycle

Less Low Level Cloud Formation

+0.2 Wm-2 Irradiance

Higher Evaporation

OC

+0.1 SST = > 0.5 Wm-2

Higher UV Radiation

More Ozone in Stratosphere

Warmer Stratosphere (Varies by Latitude)

Precipitation

Sea Surface Temperature

Observed

Model: no Stratosphere Ozone Chemistry Model: no Air-Sea interaction

Coupled Model

Coupled Model

Model with no Ozone Chemistry

Observations

Model: no Air-Sea interaction

Cloud Summary High level clouds trap heat.

Low level clouds mostly reflect heat Net effect is ~ 33 Wm-2 Sun GCR hypothesis + or – cloud seeding -5% Cloud H2O ~ +1OC Albedo fluctuation correlated with last two solar cycles.

Meehl hypothesis: peak solar more ozone and more evaporation (less clouds) ~ +0.1 OC SST. Photo by Andrei Aiordachioaie

Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005 Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32

Cloud Albedo

-2

-1

0

Wm-2

+1

+2

Solar Aerosols

Atmospheric Aerosols & Particulates Net Cooling of -0.5 Wm-2 (IPCC 4TR) @ 1 Wm-2 0.22 OC, this ~ -0.11 OC

Sarychev Peak Eruption 12Jun09, from International Space Station

Sahara Sand Storm over Atlantic

Station Fire, Los Angeles, 30Aug09

Contrails

Ship Tracks off North America

Black Carbon Absorbs solar radiation Decreases albedo

IPCC 4TAR: Aerosol cooling -0.5 Wm-2 Myhre 2009 “Black Carbon more significant than stated by IPCC, net aerosol cooling reduced to -0.3 Wm-2

Aerosol Summary Particles Multi-Task to Change Climate: Volcanic plumes (sulfates) cool.

Dust storms & fires reflect, thus cool.

Jet Contrails = high clouds, thus warm.

Ship tracks (sulfates, low clouds) cool.

Black carbon decreases albedo, thus warm.

IPCC net effect -0.5 Wm-2 (i.e. cooling) Increase in Black Carbon decreases cooling to -0.3 Wm-2 This means IPCC impact of CO2 is overstated by 0.2 Wm-2 ~ 0.04 OC.

Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005 Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32

No volcanic aerosol effect is included by IPCC

Direct Aerosol Cloud Albedo Linear Contrails

-2

-1

0

Wm-2

+1

+2

Aerosols Oscillations

“Oscillations” SFWS The 4 seasons

Annually

2.3 OC global temp. swing

ENSO El Nino Southern 3 to 7 years +/- 0.4OC Oscillation globally PDO

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

20 to 30 years?

?? 1976-77 shift +0.2OC

AMO

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

60 to 80 years

~+/- 0.5OC in north Atlantic

Recall 20th Century net warming of 0.6 OC Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere, John Christy UAH

Global Mean Surface Temperature (1961 – 1990) National Climate Data Center

Temperature, OC

16 15 14

3.8 OC

13 12 11

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Month

A

S

O

N

D

NH 9.76 OC swing

Global Mean 2.3 OC swing

SH 4.8 OC swing

ENSO “Normal” a.k.a La Nina

ENSO El Nino

SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, January 1997

La Nina

30OC

8OC

Thermocline, 20OC NASA GISS

SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, November 1997

Transition

NASA GISS

SST and water temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, March 1998

El Nino

NASA GISS

Note

El Nino

La Nina

La Nina

Nothing unique about super El Nino of 1998

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Typical wintertime Sea Surface Temperature (colors), Sea Level Pressure (contours) and surface wind stress (arrows) anomaly patterns during warm and cool phases of PDO

Warm Phase

Cool Phase

Abrupt PDO Phase Shift

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Aug to Oct: 1948 to 2003: Surface SST

North Atlantic Global

“Probably more than half of all satellitederived "global warming trends" are directly attributable to the 66 year AMO cycle.�

Northern Hemisphere Heating Faster Than Southern Hemisphere

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