1 Will US Oil Production exceed 13,630 thousand barrels per day for March 2025?
No. Three time series models were developed to forecast March 2025 Crude Oil Production and the average of the three. The April 2025 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) has a value of 13,547 for March 2025.
2 Will US Natural Gas Production exceed 3,100,000 million cubic feet in February 2025?
No. A time series model was developed to forecast February 2025 Natural Gas Production. The model identified the seasonality of nat gas production and forecasts February Production at 2,982,295 million cubic feet.
The April 2025 Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) has a value of 3,224,435 for February 2025. However, this number will not be considered as the STEO data series diverges from the monthly natural gas production data series (See chart below).
Given the strong seasonality of the February nat gas production. I used the data history of the percent change in production from January to February.
Percent Change from January to February
Feb99 -9.90%
Feb00 -7.90%
Feb01 -9.70%
Feb02 -10.50%
Feb03 -9.10%
Feb04 -7.30%
Feb05 -8.20%
Feb06 -9.90%
Feb07 -8.40%
Feb08 -5.60%
Feb09 -8.90%
Feb10 -7.70%
Feb11 -11.50%
Feb12 -8.30%
Feb13 -9.40%
Feb14 -7.50%
Feb15 -9.20%
Feb16 -5.10%
Feb17 -8.40%
Feb18 -7.80%
Feb19 -9.10%
Feb20 -8.20%
Feb21 -16.40%
Feb22 -8.80%
Feb23 -9.90%
Feb24 -4.30%
Max -16.40%
Min -4.30%
Mean -8.73%
Median -8.60%
Applying the percent changes to January 2025 Production
January 2025 Production 3,227,574
February 2025 Production Estimate
Max -16.40% 2,698,252
Min -4.30% 3,088,788
Mean -8.73% 2,945,782
Median -8.60% 2,950,003