Volume VI, Issue I
February 7, 2011
OPINION (Continued from Page 5) The violence escalated and the death toll began to rise. As the protests continued and intensified, the army began to patrol the streets, but to no avail. Within a month of the first self-emollition, President Ben Ali had fled the country, the Lebanese government had fallen apart, and unrest had grown in the nearby countries of Algeria and Jordan over rising food prices. Then, just as Tunisia became engulfed in prison riots and shootings, Egypt retook its position as the leader of Middle East, and had some rioting of its own. The revolutions that had begun with hope for a brighter future, with young college graduates fighting for a better life, had devolved into chaos. It is understandable that there would be violence during this most crucial period of transition for the hopeful nations of Tunisia and Egypt. Those who espouse “democratic peace theory”, which suggests that democracies nearly never go to war with each other, argue that the transition to democracy is usually filled with violence and aggression. The American Revolution was first and foremost a war for independence and France’s first jump toward democracy featured the Reign of Terror. Yet, those who have been reading the news for the last half century, or at least since September 11, 2001, know that violence from the Middle East tends to take a different form. There is one particular strain that has spelled disaster for democracies around the world, impeded the peace process over and over again, and stricken fear in the hearts of all forward-looking nations of the world: Islamic extremism. While the Muslim Brotherhood, by far Egypt’s largest Islamist opposition group, is deliberately remaining quiet throughout the protests, the fear that it is waiting just beyond the shadows has plagued Egypt’s revolutions since day one. In fact, throughout his presidency, President Mubarak of Egypt has repeatedly used the presence of it and other extremist groups to expand his power. Citing the threat of extremism as justification for his actions, Mubarak has put down protests and almost entirely stifled dissent. However, with Mubarak seemingly one protest away from expulsion from the country, there is a strong possibility that Egypt’s only other organized political party, the Muslim Brotherhood, will take power. If that happens, then subtle ring of democracy will, in all likelihood, disappear from the Middle East. An extremist government in Egypt will just bring more of the same corruption and suppression that Syria and Iran offer. It will slowly but surely undo all of the progress Egypt has made in its development toward freedom and
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democracy. It will block up the paths that Egypt has paved toward international cooperation, effectively closing them off for the foreseeable future. If the Muslim Brotherhood takes control, all hope will be lost. Egypt will no doubt retain its position as a leader of the Middle East and bring Tunisia, Jordan and Yemen down with it. Lebanon has already fallen to Hezbollah and Jordan is slowly folding to its own branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The prospects do not look good. Another factor to consider is the scarcity of democracy in Muslim countries. As of now, few Islamic states can be called democratic and an even smaller number have shed the extremism often tied to Islamic governments. Turkey alone stands as a strong secular democracy in the Middle East but it is turning away from its long history of secularism and embracing the more radical cultures of its neighbors. Some argue that this separation between the Arab nations and the democracies of the West is inevitable, democracy being contradictory to the ideals and values of the Muslim peoples. With this in mind, transition to a successful democracy in any Muslim nation is impossible, regardless of the conditions or apparent calls for reform. Like the Islam Revolution of 1979, these revolutions too will give rise to extremist theocracies, not the democracy the people call for. Fortunately, the fight is not yet lost. Spots of sun glimmer on the horizon throughout the Middle East. Nobel Prize-winner and political moderate Mohammed ElBaradei has emerged as a strong political figure in Egypt, winning the support of both democrats and Islamist anti-government leaders. Sudan is on the verge of ending its decades-long civil wars that have cost the lives of more than two million people. The Muslim Brotherhood, which progressives across the world dread most, has joined its democratic friends and demanded free and fair elections. Although the lights of hope are only faint glimmers in the distance and the calls for total freedom seem like little more than whispers, they are still present. And if there is anything that these revolutions have taught us, it is that one flame can start a revolution. In the grand scheme of things though, there are little more than whispers and illusions of hope. Even if the protesters in Tahrir Square do cause the ousting of President Mubarak, there is a good chance that the Muslim Brotherhood will take power in his place. The fire of revolution will be engulfed by the blaze of Islamic extremism that will take Tunisia, Jordan, and other countries with it. The spread of radicalism will maintain its course (Continued on Page 7) www.JHUPOLITIK.com