JHU POLITIK
the
I
SEPTEMBER 28, 2015
VOLUME XVIII, ISSUE V
the
JHU POLITIK EDITORS-IN-CHIEF Christine Server & Juliana Vigorito MANAGING EDITOR Mira Haqqani
HEAD WRITER Evan Harary
ASSISTANT EDITORS Dylan Etzel Preston Ge Shrenik Jain Sathvik Namburar
POLICY DESK EDITOR Arpan Ghosh
CREATIVE DIRECTOR Diana Lee
MARYLAND EDITOR David Hamburger
COPY EDITOR Zachary Schlosberg WEBMASTER Position Open MARKETING & PUBLICITY Chiara Wright
CAMPUS EDITOR Christina Selby
STAFF WRITERS Olga Baranoff Dylan Cowit Rosellen Grant George Gulino Morley Musick Sathvik Namburar Corey Payne
FACULTY ADVISOR Charlotte O’Donnell
2 the JHU POLITIK
• September 28, 2015 • Volume XVIII, Issue V
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
4 5 6 7 8
The Week in Review: Environmental Policy
Juliana Vigorito ’16 & Christine Server ’16
The Dragon and the Bear:
The Developing Sino-Russian Relationship
Dimitri Simes ’19
Why the United States Department of Agriculture Needs Reform Yuyan Pu ’19 A Growing Fight:
The Future of Same-Sex Marriage
Samuel Kou ‘19
Iran and China’s Future in the Middle East Evan Harary ’16
Volume XVIII, Issue V • September 28, 2015 •
the JHU POLITIK
3
The Week in Review: Environmental Policy by Juliana Vigorito ’16 & Christine Server ’16, Editors-in-Chief Volkswagen Emissions Scandal Following accusations made by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, German automotive manufacturer Volkswagen (VW) has admitted to cheating on emissions tests for diesel cars. The company allegedly installed devices in 11 million vehicles worldwide that could sense when the car was being tested under laboratory conditions, improving its performance accordingly. In reality, VW diesel cars emitted nitrogen oxide pollutants up to forty times above U.S. limits. Outrage has been widespread in the United States, which has ordered the recall of 500,000 vehicles, as well as abroad. Switzerland has banned the sale of VW diesel cars outright, and a number of other countries, including the UK, Germany, and South Korea, have opened investigations into the legitimacy of the company’s reported emissions. Diesel engine sales had already been in decline amidst growing evidence of their harmful environmental effects. While the car industry has enjoyed governmental support in their push for diesel, this new evidence of a “diesel dupe” will likely be the death blow for automotive companies peddling these vehicles. United Nations Adopts Sustainable Development Goals On September 25th, the United Nations member states unanimously adopted an agenda that combines poverty alleviation and climate responsibility. This agenda, branded in the form of seventeen Sustainable Development Goals, represents a step away from the Millennial Development Goals which guided UN policy for the last fifteen years. The dual purpose of these goals is somewhat counterintuitive - increasing industrialization is prioritized alongside reduction of carbon emissions and food waste - but the UN is often idealist with regard to competing priorities. These new goals seem to admit this tendency and embrace it; the dualism may lead to more intersectional thinking about development than in the past. In any case, the Sustainable Development Goals will likely have more success increasing environmentally friendly practices than they will on their other major aim, eliminating poverty by 2030. World leaders ranging from Pope Francis to the Secretary-General of Amnesty International have already spoken out in support of the goals, and their adoption represents a bold and ambitious step toward building a more just and sustainable world for all. China Announces Cap and Trade Plans This past week, Chinese President Xi Jingping made his first State visit to the United States, a trip which coincided with the adoption of Sustainable Development Goals by the UN. While past iterations of these ceremonial visits have revolved around geopolitical struggles, this one attended in part to a different sort of mutual enemy: climate change. President Obama and other world leaders have emphasized a commitment to tackling the issue in recent months, but China has tended to lag behind other nations with regard to environmental protections. With the introduction of a so-called cap and trade system for greenhouse gas emitters, China is making a decisive move away from its previous tactic of avoiding regulation by claiming status as a still-developing nation. Perhaps even more impactful is the fact that China will extend this newfound environmental concern to the infrastructure projects they finance around the world. Unsurprisingly, Chinese carbon emitters themselves have been quick to criticize the plan, as its timeline for implementation by 2017 may not allow sufficient time for companies to take stock of their emissions and plan accordingly. ■
4 the JHU POLITIK
• September 28, 2015 • Volume XVIII, Issue V
The Dragon and the Bear: The Developing Sino-Russian Relationship
A
by Dimitri Simes ’19, Contributing Writer
sign of their growing military ties, Russia and China recently participated in a massive joint naval exercise in the Sea of Japan involving submarines, warships, and marines. Earlier this year, Russia announced that it would start selling S-400 missiles – previously reserved only for Russia’s military – to China. Burgeoning cooperation between Russia and China is not restricted only to the security realm, as the two countries signed a 30-year, $400 billion gas deal in May 2014. This summer, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as the biggest supplier of oil to China. To those familiar with the Sino-Russian relationship, these developments seem strange at first glance. Because of their conflicting interests in Central Asia and historical grievances, Russia and China are by no means natural allies. Given China’s close economic ties with the West, a move to improve relations with Russia at the risk of alienating its American and European trading partners seems unlikely. Conversely, Russia’s security is hardly enhanced by having a major economic and military power on its southern border. As China is the greater power, Russia’s role in any relationship would be that of a junior partner – a role that President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to regard kindly. However, history has shown that unlikely alliances can be formed under the right circumstances. Unfortunately, the “right circumstances” tend to be a common foe, and this case is no different. Both nations increasingly consider the United States their main threat. Russia and China share apprehensions about the American policy of democracy promotion, perceiving it as a mechanism by which the United States removes regimes it deems insufficiently friendly. Equally alarming to them is the support that the United States provides to their neighbors during disputes, including the 2008 Russo-Georgian War and the Scarborough Shoal standoff. Leaders in Moscow and Beijing regard such an American approach as containment at best, and encirclement at worst.
cooperation with China on energy, providing the potential for greater access to Russian oil and natural gas fields. China also has much to gain from having Russia as a partner. Russia’s military support of Eastern Ukrainian rebels and the Assad government makes it difficult for the United States to “pivot to Asia” by forcing the U.S. to increase its focus on Europe and the Middle East. In Russia, China finds a reliable supplier of energy, though its current economic issues have hampered efforts at greater cooperation in this area. Additionally, Russia could be very useful in China’s quest to strengthen its military. While China’s military has made significant strides in recent years, it would still benefit from Russia’s help with submarines, bombers, and surface-to-air missiles. A Sino-Russian coalition is not inevitable, as evidenced by difficulties related to China’s economic woes. However, even if Russia and China fail in building a robust economic alliance, their increasing political and military cooperation can lead to a strategic realignment that poses a challenge to the United States. For Sino-Russian collaboration to be harmful to American interests, the countries need not support one another unconditionally on every issue. Rather, it would be sufficient to simply support one another in disputes with the United States and to see such disputes as opportunities to advance each nation’s interests. For instance, Russia might chose to increase pressure on the United States in Asia by offering greater support for China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. At this stage, the growing prospect of a Sino-Russian partnership should not merit alarm, but contemplation. An alliance is not set in stone, and the United States can do much to ensure that it never is. However, the first step to address this developing challenge is to recognize that a Sino-Russian alliance is not a far-fetched fantasy, but a real possibility that is gaining more credibility by the day. ■
Western efforts to punish the Kremlin over conflict in Ukraine have expedited Russia’s pivot to China. Although being China’s junior partner is undesirable, the Russian leadership finds it preferable to backing down to the West or facing total isolation. Many Russians hope that enhancing economic ties with China will provide a way to reduce reliance on the European market, though recent market turmoil has dampened this optimism. The Russian leadership considers stronger ties with China such a priority that it appears willing to make major concessions to its southern neighbor. Russia has, for example, recently increased
Volume XVIII, Issue V • September 28, 2015 •
the JHU POLITIK
5
Why the United States Department of Agriculture Needs Reform
T
by Yuyan Pu ’19, Contributing Writer
he Department of Agriculture grew out of a small academic bureau within the Department of the Interior in 1849. The United States was a mostly agrarian society at the time, and the early USDA focused on strategies to boost crop production. Only after President Abraham Lincoln elevated it to an independent department did the USDA start to expand its authority. From promoting agricultural production and research, the duties of the USDA grew to include establishing a national nutrition standard. This new responsibility created an internal conflict in which the department had to serve both in the food producers’ and the food consumers’ interest. The USDA developed an identity crisis around this time that continues to this day.
manufacturers adjusted their supply to match demand, but it left them with a lot of fatty leftovers after production. The USDA oversaw this by flooding the market with several types of cheese to use up the extra milk fat. These new products were specifically developed to make it easier to add to other foods and incorporate into a daily diet. Restaurant chains and fast food companies engineered new products to maximize their cheese use. The campaign was so successful that the 2007 USDA annual report to Congress noted how the cheese industry was able to sell 30 million more pounds of cheese. This happened as health pamphlets encouraged people to eat less food high in solid fats. Ironically, cheese is a solid fat, but that’s not important to the USDA.
The contemporary USDA has jurisdiction over the American diet in several subtle ways. One of its most influential policies is the subsidies program in the omnibus Farm Bill, a quinquennial piece of legislation that focuses on agricultural commodity support. Of its $489 billion endowment, the USDA has spent roughly $84 billion on corn subsidies from 1995 to 2012 through direct payments, crop insurance, market loss assistance, and other programs. With corn so cheap, most of the food industry now uses high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) as the standard sweetener in processed foods and soft drinks. Its prevalence makes it easy for people to consume HFCS in doses that can lead to metabolic diseases and obesity. If the USDA is serious about promoting American health, it cannot tell Americans to limit their sugar intake while also providing $84 billion in subsidies for corn-based sweeteners: it’s hypocritical and counterproductive. The USDA is effectively subsidizing obesity.
In his last address to Congress, Abraham Lincoln called the USDA as “the people’s department.” Back then, a considerable percentage of Americans were small-acre farmers and the department furthered their interests. Just a century and a half later, most of the 2% of Americans who work in farming today are part of large agricultural conglomerates. Technology and globalization have transformed the USDA into a corporatecentered agency masquerading as a health-conscious department. This conflict of interest does a great disservice to the American public, and it is disconcerting that the bias still persists today. If it made sense for the Department of Commerce and Labor to break into two independent agencies in 1913, it definitely makes sense for the nutritional responsibilities of the USDA to be transferred to the Department of Health. Until then, the USDA will remain at a crossroads between public health and private interests. ■
Another way the USDA governs diet is by redefining certain nutritional guidelines. In 2010, the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act prompted the USDA to create healthier standards for the National School Lunch Program. With pizza in danger of leaving school cafeterias, a large lobbying campaign convinced the USDA to propose that an eighth of a cup of tomato paste is equivalent to half a cup of vegetables. This provision inflates the nutritional benefits of tomato paste to four times its actual value, but makes it easier for manufacturers to sell a pizza “healthy enough” for children. This logic makes eating a slice of pizza at school equivalent to eating one serving of vegetables. Yet another interesting story in regards to the USDA’s policy choices concerns cheese. When Americans started to embrace low-fat diets, the demand for skim milk shot up. Dairy
6 the JHU POLITIK
• September 28, 2015 • Volume XVIII, Issue V
A Growing Fight: The Future of Same-Sex Marriage
O
by Samuel Kou ’19, Contributing Writer
n June 26, 2015, the landmark Supreme Court case Obergefell v. Hodges ruled bans on same-sex marriage unconstitutional in all fifty states. In a 5-4 decision, the Court ruled that the 14th Amendment requires states to perform and recognize same-sex marriages. However, the division among the justices reflects the division across the nation. Analogous to the persistence of racial discrimination half a century after the Civil Rights Movement, it is clear that the U.S. still has a long way to go before the LGBTQ community is accepted by society as a whole, particularly those committed to religion. In 1954, Brown v. Board of Education of Topeka overturned the “separate but equal doctrine” and ruled segregation in public schools unconstitutional. However, the nation saw little change thereafter and the fight for equality had to continue. Led most notably by Martin Luther King Jr., the Civil Rights movement helped pass the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The Act had provisions that outlawed segregation in public facilities as well as a provision that outlawed segregation in public schools, equivalent to the Brown ruling. So, why did it take ten years and an act of Congress to desegregate the nation? The Supreme Court is the only branch of government that is not elected by the people, and its primary responsibility is interpretation of the Constitution. Supreme Court rulings may sway national opinion, but they have limited capacity for enforcement without the consent of the legislature. Moreover, traces of racial discrimination remain apparent today. Though segregation is legally outlawed, disparities and inequalities persist within society. Despite prohibitions on school segregation, de facto segregation between whites and minorities remains more than sixty years after the Brown decision. According to Pew Research Center, in 2010 only 15.9% of white students attended a school where minorities made up at least half the school. That same year, according to the New York Civil Liberties Union, residents of New York City were stopped 601,285 times by policemen. Of those stops, 54% were black, and only 9% were white. However, the 2010 Census showed that the city’s population was 44% white and only 25.5% black. These disparities may not exist solely due to racial discrimination, but they are nonetheless strong evidence for the existence of racial bias. If it takes society more than half a century to translate laws into action, then the fight for LGBTQ rights may not end within the next couple of decades.
same-sex marriage, a sizable minority of 40% remain opposed, according to a Gallup Poll conducted in July 2015, two weeks after the decision. Parallel to the Brown decision, legalizing same-sex marriage is only the beginning of a growing fight. Just this year, Indiana passed the Indiana Religious Freedom Act, which allowed businesses to discriminate against the LGBTQ community as a whole. Although an amendment was added that prohibits use of the law as a legal defense for refusing services based on sexual orientation, Indiana Governor Mike Pence and Republican lawmakers refused to expand Indiana’s anti-discrimination laws to cover gays and lesbians. More recently, a county clerk in Rowan County, Kentucky named Kim Davis made headlines when she was jailed for denying marriage licenses to same-sex couples in July. Since her release, she has continued to find ways to disobey the Supreme Court ruling by altering marriage documents, which could potentially render them invalid. Her justification is that she is following the word of God. Many chastise Davis for her actions, but a large number praise and support her, including Republican presidential nominee Mike Huckabee. Nobody can predict how long this divide will last, though the search for remedies against sexual orientation discrimination continues. Support from millennials is the highest among all generations, suggesting that this issue may die down within the next 50 years. However, with a large majority of Americans identifying as Christian, religion may continue to stand in the way. Obergefell v. Hodges is not a cause for unfettered celebration, but a stepping stone for future progress. ■
Obergefell v. Hodges does not possess the singular power to resolve this issue. Despite a majority of Americans supporting
Volume XVIII, Issue V • September 28, 2015 •
the JHU POLITIK
7
Iran and China’s Future in the Middle East by Evan Harary ’16, Head Writer
T
o date, China has led a delicate balancing act in the Middle East. While other powers supply arms to rebels and regimes throughout the region, China has avoided entanglement. The passage of the Iran nuclear deal portends to change this. With Chinese economic ties to Iran and Iran’s involvement in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, China will soon likely, if reluctantly, play a role in reforming the Middle East. Outside of East Asia, China’s foreign policy has focused on trade, access to resources, and the status of Chinese firms abroad. China has rarely deployed troops far from its borders and regularly decries the use of force. When faced with conflict, China hedges. China has repeatedly blocked U.N. Security Council resolutions to remove the Al-Assad regime in Syria. At the same time, it has hosted Syrian opposition groups in Beijing and even sent envoys to meet with rebels in Damascus. China’s “Four Point Plan” for the resolution of the conflict in Syria was notable above all else for its lack of substantive assertions. But while generally refraining from intervention, China continues to expand its economic presence in the Middle East. China’s Silk Road Economic Belt, part of its answer to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, is an ambitious set of infrastructure and investment plans that links China to the Central Asia and the Middle East. Furthermore, the Pakistan-China economic corner will allow China much closer access to Gulf oil through the Gwadar port in Pakistan, increasing China’s interests in regional stability. But recent turbulence has already forced China to veer from neutrality. On North Africa’s Southern reaches, China has sent troops to pacify South Sudan, a place in which China has invested enormously. China is the leading trade partner of the Gulf Cooperation Council states and a dependent on Persian Gulf oil. Despite this, China has proven unwilling to guarantee its support of the actions of the largest and most influential Gulf state, Saudi Arabia. Chinese President Xi Jinping canceled what was supposed to be his first official visit to Saudi Arabia in April, citing the kingdom’s then “current preoccupations.” This likely signaled a condemnation of Saudi Arabia’s escalation.in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi forces, a conflict that has killed thousands and driven many more from their homes and into danger of starvation.
Mohamad Zavad Jarif has said that Iran will grant Chinese firms priority as sanctions lift. And on a recent trip to Iran, a senior Chinese official offered Iran help in upgrading its manufacturing technology as well as a blank check intended to bolster the whole Iranian economy. Saudi Arabia has been Iran’s regional rival for decades. With Iranian funds flowing to the Houthis in Yemen, the Assad regime in Syria, and Hezbollah in the Levant, conflicts in which Saudi Arabia has invested money and arms of its own, substantial Chinese economic involvement with Iran constitutes a stance in itself to which Saudi leadership will respond. This dynamic makes the expansion of Chinese political involvement in the Middle East likely if not inevitable. No one can say what form China’s role in the Middle East will take. China will not likely deploy troops in the region, but its platform as a market for Gulf oil and economic partner to Iran guarantees it ample influence to the region. China’s historic focus on multipolarity means that Chinese moves in the region would inherently challenge American hegemony. But China’s fraying ties with Russia undermine the chances of a solid Chinese/Russian front. Most likely, China will join the major powers in opposition to extremist groups and attempt to remain neutral elsewhere. China fears spillover of extremist groups into Xinjiang and it has already helped Pakistan combat the Taliban. Opposition to the Islamic state would be an uncontroversial way to appease the Chinese public’s increasing desire for Chinese intervention abroad. Even this would be a major step towards more assertive and far-reaching Chinese foreign policy. China’s diplomatic and military involvement has lagged behind its economic reach thus far. The Middle East may be where China’s powers begin to draw even. ■
The opening of Iran’s economy may draw China further into Middle Eastern politics. China supported the Iran nuclear deal from the start. It is already Iran’s largest trading partner and the largest recipient of Iranian oil. Iranian Foreign Minister
8 the JHU POLITIK
• September 28, 2015 • Volume XVIII, Issue V
WRITE FOR the JHU POLITIK
PHOTO COURTESY: UNITED STATES LIBRARY OF CONGRESS’S PRINTS AND PHOTOGRAPHS DIVISION
JHU Politik, founded in 2008, is a weekly publication of political opinion pieces. We proudly seek to provide the Johns Hopkins community with student voices and perspectives about important issues of our time. Rather than hide within a cloistered academic bubble, we know we must critically engage with the world that surrounds us. That, we believe, is at the heart of what it means to be learning. We are lucky to be situated in the city of Baltimore, a city with a rich history and an ever-changing politics. We aim to look at the politics of the Homewood campus, the city of Baltimore, the domestic landscape of the United States, and the international community . While we publish the Politik weekly, we work simultaneously on our special issues which come out once per semester. These magazines confront a single topic from multiple angles. We have run issues covering topics like the political nature of research, the Arab Spring, and our city Baltimore.
If interested, e-mail us at
JHUPOLITIK@gmail.com Or find us online at
jhupolitik.org
Volume XVIII, Issue V • September 28, 2015 •
the JHU POLITIK
9