NEWS
a life well planned is a life well lived
The Captain’s Log Winter 2018
As we approach the year’s end, 2018’s stock market and investment experience will be remembered in the chronicles of history as a period of high standard deviations and above average volatility. Early in the year investors were euphoric with great optimism for continued unidirectional market growth based on the bakedin certainties of consistently strong corporate earnings and the newly befallen benefits of corporate and personal tax reform. Now, late in the 4th quarter and alongside the inevitable onset of Winter, we find ourselves less economically giddy and perhaps even somewhat concerned over the sustainability of our domestic and global economic expansion. What happened to our end of 2017 collective over-abundance of optimism? The well from
which we drew our mathematical certainties and foregone conclusions of continued global expansion seems to have suddenly run a pinch dry. Every bit as intriguing, how can the thunderous economic momentum which drove us confidently into 2018 shift abruptly without a percussing blink? The great lessons of 2018 do not lie in the cautionary tales of over exuberance and irrational expectations; they are not hidden in the “because it has been therefore it will always be” misguided logic; and they are not nesting in the naivete of excessive optimism. The learning opportunities of 2018 are embedded soundly in a quote from John C. Bogel Founder of The Vanguard Investment Group, “The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.” (continued on next page)