James F. Kenefick - Azafran Capital INSIGHTS Vol. 11

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YOUR EYE ON INNOVATIVE MACHINE LEARNING SOLVING REAL WORLD PROBLEMS

Azafran Capital Partners

INSIGHTS What’s It All About, Alpha? In the VC world Alpha means different things to different funds and managers - following are thoughts & highlights from Azafran’s take on Alpha We think about transformational value 24/7 and want to share our insight here on what it means to generate this value. Often referred to as alpha, so let’s be clear that we are talking about return on capital above a generally accepted return. In this case, we choose the S&P 500 Dividend Reinvested return (Index 1), as the generally acceptable starting point/benchmark. Therefore to generate alpha we are talking about returns that should exceed Index 1 over the following periods; 2.2x (01/2000-12/2019) or 2.4x (01/2010-12/2019). source: S&P Market timing is generally unpredictable and no investment return discussion is complete without noting that if an investor mistimed just a handful of S&P 500 trading days, returns would be much lower, even negative. Technology alpha in the US is now well embedded in the big names of the S&P 500 now lead in large part by FAANG/FANG/MAGA and some of the major industrials. These companies have spent 20+ years successfully developing and maturing into platforms of consumer focused technologies around advertising, data, connectivity and networking. These platform companies are maturing, developing and acquiring in this next wave of technology development in their own search for alpha. So let’s benchmark the S&P 500 Dividend Reinvested Index in the last 5-years as these technologies and companies continue to mature and this period returns 1.7x (01/2015-12/2019). I think we can all agree the S&P 500 is clearly a great place to be proportionally allocated for the long term and 1.7x forms our base case, Index 1. We are in the midst of the most rapid acceleration of technology the world has experienced, maybe ever. From health care to industrial automation, entrepreneurs across the globe are developing incredible, groundbreaking solutions and technologies to take advantage of the base layer elements created since the advent of the Internet. Now we should think about generating alpha outside the public capital markets precisely because these technologies are maturing in an era when technology continues to evolve rapidly. The deep technological evolution taking place is creating the next wave of transformational value. A commonly held thesis is that, a portion of this alpha will likely develop inside of the S&P companies, but the majority of this alpha will flourish in private companies. Many of which are obscure, unknown and early-stage today. It is our belief that many of these private companies will stay private longer and many will not even make it to IPO as the mature players strategically acquire the earlier stage innovators and challengers to generate their own alpha. The top tier of VC performance has been close to 2.4x. Overall, though, VC performance has underperformed our S&P Index 1 benchmark. Another crucial consideration in determining alpha is the VC ratio used to measure it. We often see it measured with total value to paid in capital (TVPI) which effectively marks the “book value” of the portfolio, versus distributed value to paid in capital (DVPI), which is more focussed on liquidity by measuring how much capital has been redistributed to LP’s, (even if reinvested in a multi-fund capability). [Continued on Page Two] Azafran INSIGHTS © Azafran Capital Partners 2020 - All Rights Reserved

issue ELEVEN issue eleven FOCUS At Azafran Capital Partners, we are an early stage venture fund investing in companies ($2M to $8M) that are using deep learning and machine learning, emphasizing voice, acoustics and imagery datasets in the health, wellness, IoT / automation and enterprise spaces. Issue Eleven of INSIGHTS focuses on the Azafran’s definition of Alpha, as seen through the eyes of our General Partners. In addition, we have our ongoing series From the Road as we scour the globe for the best founders and companies that fit our thesis. We also highlight some notable and informative reports out in the past month that help prove out and back up the Azafran investment thesis/Alpha. Issue Eleven will also be accompanied by our first podcast, Azafran INSIGHTS, which we will be releasing as part of each issue to provide more insight and backdrop to the contents in the issue and highlight the experience and perspective of the Azafran team, our partners and portfolio. Kicking things off below with a quote and conclusion of a great article by Nathan Heller in last month’s New Yorker:

A new generation of smaller-scale venture capitalists are indeed focussing resources on startups led by people underrepresented in tech leadership, and, for the first time, Venture World is starting to pay attention to the interests of everyone it serves.“ Is Venture Capital Worth the Risk? New Yorker - Nathan Heller, January 2020

Volume 1 Issue 11 - Page One


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