RESEARCH TEAM
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
DIRECTION
TIMEFRAME
STRATEGY / POSITION
ENTRY LEVELS
OBJECTIVE / COMMENTS
EUR / USD
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
GBP / USD
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
USD / JPY
S-TERM
USD / CHF
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
USD / CAD
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
AUD / USD
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
GBP / JPY
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
EUR / JPY
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
EUR / GBP
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
EUR / CHF
S-TERM
GOLD (in USD)
M-TERM
Await fresh signal.
SILVER (in USD)
S-TERM
Await fresh signal.
Buy limit 2
Long 3 units
101.89
1.2329
Close unit 1 at 103.35, remaining at 104.68
1.2660/1.2985/1.3195
STOP
ENTERED
101.19
1.1998
23/01/2013
Page 2 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
EUR / USD
Breaking the resistance at 1.3739.
• EUR/USD has broken the key resistance at 1.3739, opening the way for a move towards the resistance at 1.3819. Hourly supports can be found at 1.3692 (intraday low) and 1.3657 (see also the short-term rising channel). • The break to the upside out of the mediumterm horizontal range between 1.3477 and 1.3739 indicates a persistent buying interest. • In the longer term, we favour a broad horizontal range between 1.3296 (07/11/2014 low) and 1.3893 (27/12/2013 high).
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 3 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
GBP / USD
Recent weakness looks thus far like a short-term pullback. • GBP/USD has broken the key resistance at 1.6668 (24/01/2014 high). The pick-up in buying interest near this broken resistance suggests that the recent weakness was only a short-term pullback. A break of the resistance at 1.6742 would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Another support can be found at 1.6600, whereas another resistance stands at 1.6823. • In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bullish bias as long as the support at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low) holds. The decisive break of the resistance at 1.6668 opens the way for a move towards the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high). However, a sustainable move above that level is unlikely in the next few weeks.
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 4 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
USD / JPY
Fading near the resistance at 102.70.
• USD/JPY has thus far failed to break the resistance at 102.70 (11/02/2014 high). Hourly supports can now be found at 101.76 (18/02/2014 low) and 101.25. Another key resistance stands at 103.44. • A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.21) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Buy limit 2 at 101.89, Obj: Close unit 1 at 103.35, remaining at 104.68, Stop: 101.19 Page 5 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
USD / CHF
Breaking below the support at 0.8903.
• USD/CHF has broken the support at 0.8903. Other supports stand at 0.8860 and 0.8800. Hourly resistances can now be found at 0.8929 (18/02/2014 high) and 0.8949. • From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase which has potentially reached completion. The support area defined by 0.8931 (24/02/2012 low) and 0.8833 favours a potential medium-term base formation. A key resistance stands at 0.9250.
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 6 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
USD / CAD
Pushing lower.
• USD/CAD is making new lows, confirming a weak buying interest. Other supports can be found at 1.0905 (16/01/2014 low) and 1.0843 (see also the rising trendline). Hourly resistances are now given by the declining channel (around 1.0971) and 1.0999 (17/02/2014 high). • In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. A first resistance is given by the 50% retracement of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 (around 1.1236). • We have removed our long strategy given the recent new lows.
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 7 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
AUD / USD
The key resistance at 0.9086 has held thus far. • AUD/USD has thus far failed to break the key resistance at 0.9086. Given the other key resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high), the upside potential seems limited. Hourly supports stand at 0.8987 (intraday low) and 0.8928 (13/02/2014 low). • The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards the key support at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average).
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 8 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
GBP / JPY
Short-term succession of higher lows intact thus far. • GBP/JPY remains in a succession of higher lows despite yesterday's weakness. Hourly supports stand at 169.91 (17/02/2014 low) and 169.13 (14/02/2014 low). Resistances are given by the declining trendline (around 172.10) and 173.66. • The break of the major resistance at 163.09 calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The longterm technical structure remains supportive as long as the key low at 154.73 (09/10/2013 low) holds.
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 9 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
EUR / JPY
Moving higher.
• EUR/JPY has broken its recent consolidation, favouring further short-term strength. Resistances stand at 141.26 and 142.42. Hourly supports stand at 140.26 (intraday low) and 139.50 (18/02/2014 low). • The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 131.15 (08/10/2013 low) holds, despite the break of the key support at 138.43 (04/12/2013 low). Another key support lies at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low, see also the 200 day moving average). A resistance lies at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low).
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 10 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
EUR / GBP
The bounce is gaining traction.
• EUR/GBP is bouncing near the support at 0.8160 (see below). The break of the hourly resistance at 0.8227 (14/02/2014 high) has invalidated the short-term bearish technical structure. Other resistances can now be found at 0.8254 (50% retracement) and 0.8280 (06/02/2014 low). Hourly supports lie at 0.8217 (intraday low) and 0.8191 (18/02/2014 low). • In the longer term, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.8350 (13/01/2014 high). Monitor the support implied by the 61.8% retracement (of the 2012-2013 rise) at 0.8160. Another key support can be found at 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low).
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 11 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
EUR / CHF
Moving sideways close to the support at 1.2205. • EUR/CHF continues to move sideways within the horizontal range between 1.2205 and 1.2255. An initial resistance now lies at 1.2238 (18/02/2014 high). Another support can be found at 1.2185 (03/02/2014 low). • In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term. We generally favour further longer term upside for EUR/CHF towards the psychological threshold at 1.3000. A key support lies at 1.2120 (26/02/2013 low).
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23) Page 12 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
GOLD (in USD)
Mild correction thus far.
• Gold has broken the resistance implied by its 200 day moving average. Despite the overextended rise, the recent mild correction suggests persistent buying interest. Hourly supports stand at 1300 (14/02/2014 low) and 1284 (12/02/2014 low). An hourly resistance lies at 1333 (intraday high). • Longer term, the successful test of the key support at 1181 coupled with the break of the resistance implied by the 200 day moving average are positive. However, we are skeptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, we remain cautious given the current overextended rise. A key resistance stands at 1362.
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 13 | 15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 19 February 2014
SILVER (in USD)
Challenging the resistance at 22.07.
• Silver has broken the key resistance at 20.52, moving out of a three month horizontal range. The implied target at 22.12 has almost been reached. Monitor the resistance at 22.07 (06/11/2013 high). Hourly supports can be found at 21.33 and 20.71 (intraday low, see also the rising trendline). • In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance now stands at 23.09.
Luc Luyet, CIIA | Senior Market Analyst e-mail: luc.luyet@swissquote.ch
Await fresh signal. Page 14 | 15