THE MORNING BENCHMARK TRADEWEB, IFR MARKETS AND REUTERS
EUROPEAN EDITION
BENCHMARKS (10 year)
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
TOP NEWS China Jan foreign direct investment rises in sign of confi-
Country
Price
Price Change
Yield
Yield change
US
99.94
-0.11
2.76
0.01
Germany
100.58
0.00
1.69
0.00
UK
95.51
-0.04
2.79
0.00
Japan
99.93
-0.06
0.61
0.01
China
96.30
-0.30
4.56
0.04
Hong Kong
97.00
0.00
2.30
0.00
ECB's Nowotny sceptical on negative deposit rate
Singapore
102.18
-0.12
2.49
0.01
France's Hollande promises tax stability to foreign busi-
CURRENCIES
dence
BOJ holds fire despite soft GDP, focus on Kuroda's views on risks
Renzi poised to form Italian government, promises rapid change
nesses as of latest reported
UK housing not overheating, rates not at lows forever-BoE's
Present
Prior
% chng
Yr-high
Yr-low
EUR/USD
1.3709
1.3706
0.0200
1.3775
1.3478
GBP/USD
1.6728
1.6713
0.1000
1.6822
1.6253
USD/CHF
0.8922
0.8914
0.0900
0.9156
0.8902
USD/JPY
102.59
101.92
0.70
105.44
100.77
EUR/CHF
1.2232
1.2218
0.1100
1.2394
1.2186
Miles
AMERICA CLOSE
U.S. Yield Yield-percent
3
ECONOMIC WATCH GMT
Indicators
U
4
Unit Reuters
Prior
0830 SE CPI yy
%
0.1
0.1
0830 SE CPIF yy
%
0.7
0.8
0930 GB CPI yy
%
2
2
0930 GB RPI yy
%
2.7
2.7
0930 GB RPI-X yy
%
2.7
2.8
0930 GB PPI input yy
%
-2.9
-1.2
0930 GB PPI Output yy
%
0.7
1
0930 GB PPI core output yy
%
0.7
1
1000 DE ZEW Economic Sentiment
--
61.7
61.7
1000 DE ZEW Current Conditions
--
44
41.2
1330 US Empire State Index
--
9
12.51
2 1 0 3M
6M
1Y
2Y
3Y
5Y
7Y
10Y
30Y
EUROPE CLOSE Regional Yield Curves Yield-percent
EUR
GBP
CHF
4 3
ITALIAN GOVERNMENT DEBT
2
Click on the chart for full-size image
1 0 1M
6M
2Y
4Y
6Y
8Y
10Y
20Y
-1
For stories from IFR Markets click here For Tradeweb Markets update click here For Thomson Reuters Biggest CDS Movers click here
1
50Y
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
February 18, 2014
TOP NEWS FROM REUTERS China Jan foreign direct investment rises in sign of confidence
BOJ holds fire despite soft GDP, focus on Kuroda's views on risks
China drew $10.76 billion in foreign direct investment in January, up 16.1 percent from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said, a sign that confidence in the world's second-largest economy remains firm even as growth cools. The majority of the new investment, some $6.33 billion, went into China's services industry, while investment in manufacturing fell 21.7 percent, the ministry said. Ministry spokesman Shen Danyang told a media briefing that China's economic reforms and opening up of the services sector, helped boost confidence of foreign investors. "The double-digit growth in FDI in January answered the question of whether China's investment environment remains favourable," Shen said. "We expect foreign direct investment to maintain sound momentum this year." FDI in China's distribution services sector rose 7.4 percent in January from a year earlier, while FDI in the telecommunications equipment and computer sector rose 9.2 percent and that in the transportation equipment sector tumbled 62 percent.
The Bank of Japan maintained its expansionary monetary policy and reiterated its upbeat view on the economy, unfazed by recent signs of slower growth and suggesting that any additional stimulus will be some time away. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its pledge of increasing base money, its key monetary policy gauge, at an annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen ($589-$687 billion). The central bank stuck to its assessment that Japan is recovering moderately, a sign it remains confident the world's thirdlargest economy can weather the pain from a sales tax increase in April. The central bank also extended special loan facilities, cobbled together between 2010 and 2012 as a way to drive funds through the banking sector to borrowers, by one year beyond their current expiry date in March. It will double the size of funds available to financial institutions through the various loan facilities in the hope they would boost lending instead of sitting on the pile of cash. ECB's Nowotny sceptical on negative deposit rate
Renzi poised to form Italian government, promises rapid change
A negative deposit rate from the European Central Bank may fail to stimulate more lending and could have an adverse psychological effect, governing council member Ewald Nowotny said on Monday. "I am a bit sceptical on this. First, I do not think that this would be an incentive for banks to lend more," Nowotny, who is also governor of the Austrian National Bank, said at an event in London. "On the other hand, I think it could create a certain psychological feeling of crisis that is not there anymore." "Small changes of, let's say, 10 basis points or so, frankly I think wouldn't make much of a difference in both directions," Nowotny said. Nowotny said the ECB is discussing asset-backed securities purchases but he cautioned the technical implementation of this measure would be difficult.
Italian centre-left leader Matteo Renzi received a mandate on Monday to form a new government, promising rapid tax, labour and institutional reforms to revive a deeply troubled economy. He needs to seal a formal coalition deal with the small centreright NCD party to secure a majority and name his cabinet, but will probably seek a vote of confidence in parliament later this week. "In this difficult situation, I will bring all the energy and commitment I am capable of," he told reporters after President Giorgio Napolitano gave him the mandate to form the next government. "The sense of urgency is extraordinarily delicate and important but it's also true that, given the time horizon we have set of a full parliamentary term, we'll need a few days before formally accepting the mandate," he said. Renzi received the endorsement of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the foreign politician with whom he is most often compared, who said he had the "dynamism, creativity and toughness to succeed".
UK housing not overheating, rates not at lows foreverBoE's Miles Britain's housing market is not overheating but interest rates will not remain at record lows indefinitely, Bank of England policymaker David Miles said in an interview on Monday. Miles, a member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, told Bloomberg Television the amount of slack in Britain's economy means there is no case for tightening monetary policy right now and that "overheating" was not a good word to describe the housing market. Miles said house prices were not yet rising at an unsustainable pace and that net mortgage lending remained lower than "you might expect in a well-functioning market". "In terms of a generalised overheating housing market, I don't think that's a good description of where we are," Miles said, adding that national measures of house prices were being distorted by those in the southeast and London. "If you did get into a situation where the tools that the Financial Policy Committee have seem not up to the job of stopping overheating in the housing market, we would then turn to the blunter instrument of using Bank Rate. We're a long way from that."
France's Hollande promises tax stability to foreign businesses President Francois Hollande appealed to foreign business leaders to invest in France on Monday, offering them simpler and more stable tax policies as his unpopular government tries to spur growth and create jobs. Hosting 30 heads of French units of foreign companies at his Elysee Palace, Hollande pledged to guarantee that taxes on an investment would not rise later - as has happened in the past and VAT and duty rules for firms would be streamlined this year. The Socialist president, who last month announced France would phase out 30 billion euros ($41 billion) in charges on companies by 2017 to reverse its slide in trade competitiveness, also said French business taxes would be harmonised with those of its neighbours, especially Germany, by 2020. He did not indicate the legal basis for his pledge of stable taxes on investments in the euro zone's second-largest economy.
2
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
February 18, 2014
MORNING MEETING FROM IFR MARKETS THE EUROPEAN MORNING MEETING
• ECB/Austria CB Nowotny – ABS purchases under discussion, skeptical on negative deposit rates – Reuters. • RBA Feb 4 meeting minutes – Period of stable interest rates prudent, stimulus having intended effects, some “noise” in Q4 inflation data, could reflect lower AUD, slow wage impact lag, lower AUD would help economy, growth to be moderate at best. • Australia undergoing manufacturing crisis – Straits Times. • NZD 20% overvalued? – New Zealand Herald.
US markets were shut for Presidents' Day on Monday. Asian stocks today are subdued with few overseas leads - the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is -0.2% while the Nikkei 225 index is roaring higher at +2.7% on a weaker yen - the BOJ decided to leave monetary policy unchanged today, as expected. RBA minutes were released and contained few surprises, confirming rates are on hold for the foreseeable future - the ASX 200 index is flat. S&P 500 futures are +0.1% and the yield on Treasury 10s is 1 bp above Friday's close at 2.75% in Tokyo trading. OVERNIGHT REUTERS PRESS • Weak spending shows Japanese consumer doubts about Abenomics • Japan's Aso: GDP shows moderate recovery, will watch external demand • Japan's Amari: economic recovery to continue on domestic demand • Thai GDP growth slumps in Q4, unrest clouds outlook • Currency wars pose disinflation risk for losers • Renzi poised to form Italian government, promises rapid change • BHP Billiton boosts profit, paves way for buyback • Gold hovers near 3-1/2 month high as safe-haven bids support • US stocks correction fear fades despite valuation angst • S.Korea Jan Producer Price drop at slowest pace in 16 months • Ratings outlook upgrade, Renzi optimism drive Italy's yields to eight-year lows • ECB's Nowotny sceptical on negative deposit rate
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT) 08:30 SE Jan CPI, -0.9% m/m, +0.1% y/y eyed; last +0.3%, +0.1%. 08:30 SE Jan CPIF, -0.8% m/m, +0.7% y/y eyed; last +0.3%, +0.8%. 09:00 EZ Dec current account bal; last E27.4 bln nsa, E23.5 bln sa surpluses. 09:00 EZ Dec net investment flows; last E40.9 bln inflow. 09:00 IT Dec trade balance, global/EU; last E3.09 bln and E710 mln surpluses. 09:30 GB Jan CPI, -0.5% m/m, +2.0% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, +2.0%. 09:30 GB Jan RPI, -0.4% m/m, +2.7% y/y eyed; last +0.5%, +2.7%. 09:30 GB Jan RPIX, -0.5% m/m, +2.7% y/y eyed; last +0.5%, +2.8%. 09:30 GB Jan PPI – input, -0.5% m/m, -2.85% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, -1.2%. 09:30 GB Jan PPI – output, +0.1% m/m, +0.7% y/y eyed; last unch, +1.0%. 09:30 GB Jan PPI - core output, +0.1% m/m, +0.7% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, +1.0%. 10:00 DE Feb ZEW economic sentiment index, 61.7 eyed; last 61.7. 10:00 DE Feb ZEW current conditions index, 44.0 eyed; last 41.2. 13:30 CA Dec net investment flows; last C$6.57 bln inflow, C$8.66 bln outflow. 14:00 US Dec int’l capital flows data (TIC report); last net $16.6 bln outflow.
LATE TREASURY SESSION • N/A - market closed for Presidents' Day holiday. OVERNIGHT EVENTS • BoJ leaves monetary policy, economic assessment unchanged, as eyed, inflation expectations rising, deadlines for three loan facilities extended a year, size of funds targeting growth sectors, banks/cheap loans to be doubled. • Japan FinMin Aso – GDP data confirms moderate economic recovery, not so concerned but will eye external demand closely – Reuters. • Weak spending shows Japanese consumer doubts about Abenomics – Reuters. • Japan considers concessions to US in TPP talks - Nikkei. • China PBOC drains CNY48 bln in 104-day repo, first drain in 8-mos – MNI. • BoE MPC Miles – Possible more slack in UK economy than in BoE estimates, no case for tightening right now, recent GBP gains not trivial – Bloomberg.
Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions (GMT) 06:30 BoJ Gov Kuroda press conference in Tokyo. N/A EcoFin meeting in Brussels, Spain 6/12-mo treasury bill auctions. 09:00 Netherlands E3-4 bln 2047 DSL Dutch direct auction. 09:30 ECB 0.25% 7-day refi tender, E64.5 bln allotment eyed. 10:20 ECB Praet in panel discussion in Cascais, Portugal. 11:00 BoS Gov Linde speech at Madrid conference. richard.sexton@thomsonreuters.com
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THE MORNING BENCHMARK
February 18, 2014
EUROPEAN CDS LOOK AHEAD FROM IFR MARKETS Published on Feb 17
ECONOMIC DATA: A fairly busy data week in the US kick off tomorrow with some secondary releases. Empire State Manufacturing is expected at 9.00 in February from 12.51 in January. We also get Treasury International Capital Flows and the February NAHB index. Over in Europe, the main event will be the latest thoughts of the German ZEW institute at 1000GMT. The headline economic sentiment index for February is expected to be unchanged from the January print of 61.7. The current conditions component is expected to tick up to 44.0 from 41.2. Apart from ZEW, the only other release is the area-wide current account at 0900GMT. In the UK, it is inflation day at 0930GMT. January CPI is expected at -0.5% m/m from 0.4% in December, with the y/y figure unchanged at 2%. RPI is expected at -0.4% m/m from 0.5%, with the y/y number sticking at 2.7%. PPI is expected at 0.1% m/m and 0.7% y/y versus 0.1% and 1.0% respectively.
Look out for: Another quiet session. The majority of key scheduled events this week will take place over the next three days. On Wednesday, the focus will be on central banks on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, we expect a fairly benign set of minutes from the late January FOMC minutes as well as a host of Fed speakers. In the UK, we will get the minutes of the February 6 MPC meeting. We also get US PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday as well as some key manufacturing surveys. Thursday will also see the focus switch to Europe with the release of core flash PMI data as well as auctions from France and Spain. Ahead of all that there is not really a great deal going on tomorrow. On the supply front, the DSTA will look to offload between EUR3 and EUR4bn of a new 30yr Dutch bond via a DDA auction. As can be seen below, there is plenty of data to keep us occupied, with German ZEW and UK inflation being the highlights. Aside from that, it could be a relatively quiet session. That could give us the opportunity to enjoy another packed session at the Winter Olympics in Sochi, with Alpine skiing – rather bizarrely featuring violinist Vanessa Mae – speed skating, bobsleigh and ice hockey all taking centre stage.
CORPORATE EARNINGS/ EVENTS: There are 3 index constituents reporting tomorrow: Air Liquide, Casino Guichard Perrachon and Gas Natural all announcing numbers before the market opens. adam.parry@thomsonreuters.com
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4
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
February 18, 2014
TRADEWEB MARKETS
AS OF 6:00 AM GMT
EURO SOVEREIGNS - 2YR - Current
EURO SOVEREIGNS - 5YR - Current
EURO SOVEREIGNS - 10YR - Current
Country Coupon
Close
Country Coupon Close
Country Coupon Close
UK
4.75
0.526
-0.049
0.419
UK
1.25
1.703
-0.073
1.021
UK
2.25
2.799
-0.143
1.106
DE
0.00
0.107
-0.011
0.000
DE
1.00
0.682
-0.034
0.000
DE
1.75
1.693
-0.091
0.000
FR
0.25
0.213
-0.017
0.106
FR
1.00
1.125
-0.043
0.443
FR
2.25
2.294
-0.103
0.601
IT
3.00
0.915
-0.157
0.808
IT
3.50
2.194
-0.152
1.512
IT
4.50
3.656
-0.243
1.963
AT
3.50
0.169
-0.033
0.062
AT
1.15
0.855
-0.071
0.173
AT
1.75
1.994
-0.183
0.301
BE
3.75
0.204
-0.047
0.097
BE
1.25
0.931
-0.096
0.249
BE
2.25
2.251
-0.231
0.558
ES
3.25
1.264
-0.198
1.157
ES
3.75
2.156
-0.257
1.474
ES
3.80
3.595
-0.410
1.902
FI
1.75
0.198
-0.048
0.091
FI
1.13
0.782
-0.063
0.100
FI
1.50
1.827
-0.154
0.134
GR
-
-
-
-
GR
-
-
-
-
GR
2.00
7.595
-0.116
5.902
IE
4.60
0.995
-0.487
0.888
IE
4.50
1.813
-0.537
1.131
IE
3.40
3.354
-0.718
1.661
PT
6.40
2.704
-0.292
2.597
PT
4.75
3.910
-0.419
3.228
PT
5.65
4.913
-0.474
3.220
DK
2.50
0.249
0.000
0.142
DK
4.00
0.860
0.000
0.178
DK
1.50
1.712
0.000
0.019
SE
4.50
0.720
0.000
0.613
SE
4.25
1.558
0.000
0.876
SE
1.50
2.271
0.000
0.578
U.S. TREASURIES Bid
Change Spread-DE
Ask
<0#USBMK=TWEB> Change Yield
JGBs 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year 30-Year 40-Year
2-Year
100.109
100.117
0.319
0.000
3-Year
99.750
99.758
0.710
0.003
5-Year
99.852
99.859
1.531
0.006
7-Year
99.641
99.672
2.181
0.013
10-Year 30-Year
99.953 98.500
99.969 98.531
2.755 3.708
0.010 0.008
EUR IRS
<TWEBIRS> Close
2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year
Change -0.250 -0.300 -0.800 -0.750
0.345 0.342 0.342 -0.001
EUR SWAP SPREADS-Current 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Bid 0.441 1.015 1.901
Ask 0.447 1.020 1.906
EUR OIS - Prev. Close 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 9M 12M
Close 0.155 0.141 0.134 0.125 0.118 0.114 0.104 0.103
Change 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
GBP IRS 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year
<TWEBIRS> Close 0.497 0.327 0.068 -0.226
USD IRS
Change -0.750 -0.750 -0.800 -0.450
2-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Bid 0.994 2.010 2.849
Ask
100.039 100.033 99.935 102.137 101.384 105.438
100.057 100.086 100.046 102.404 101.690 105.838
<TWEBIRS> Change 0.200 0.100 0.050 -0.050
USD SWAP SPREADS-Current
Ask 1.004 2.022 2.860
Bid 0.452 1.646 2.860
2-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Ask 0.457 1.651 2.865
USD OIS - Prev. Close
GBP OIS - Prev. Close Close 0.419 0.417 0.416 0.416 0.416 0.418 0.437 0.473
Bid
Close 0.133 0.115 0.105 -0.017
2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year
GBP SWAP SPREADS-Current
1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 9M 12M
Change Spread-DE
Change 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
5
1M 2M
Close 0.073 0.071
Change 0.004 0.003
3M 4M 5M 6M 9M 12M
0.073 0.074 0.075 0.077 0.083 0.093
0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001
Change Spread-DE
<0#JPBMK=TWEB> Change Yield 0.080 0.193 0.607 1.461 1.631 1.670
-0.026 -0.005 -0.046 -0.063 -0.204 -0.100
JPY IRS 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year
<TWEBIRS> Bid 0.128 0.138 0.201 0.168
Ask 0.120 0.138 0.204 0.175
JPY SWAP SPREADS-Current 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Bid 0.190 0.320 0.800
Ask 0.195 0.325 0.805
CDS - EUROPE iTraxx -Prev. Close EUR-5Y EUR-10Y XOVER-5yr
Bid 72.813 119.375 275.000
Ask 73.313 119.875 277.000
HiVol-5yr
107.000
112.000
CDS - U.S. Prev. Close Bid
Ask
IG.20-3Y
46.171
53.409
IG.20-5Y
62.199
71.893
IG.20-7Y IG.20-10Y
110.500 107.850
110.500 125.400
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
February 18, 2014
THOMSON REUTERS CDS BIGGEST MOVERS - February 17 Markit Intra-day prices. Convention spread for lower risk entities is based off the 100bp fixed coupon, while the convention spread for higher risk entities is based off the 500bp fixed coupon.
CREDIT IMPROVEMENT - LOWER RISK ENTITIES (CDS whose 5Yr spreads are <500bps)
CREDIT DETERIORATION - LOWER RISK ENTITIES (CDS whose 5Yr spreads are <500bps)
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
Name
RIC
ConvSprd % Chg
Name
RIC
DEUTSCHE BAHN ROYAL SUN ALC IN EDISON IT INVSTR HAVAS
DBAH5YEUAM=MG
35.00
-7.24
UNILEVER NV
UN5YEUAM=MG
26.50
6.00
ROYL5YEUAM=MG
88.75
-5.32
SANO
SASY5YEUAM=MG
33.75
5.47
EDN5YEUAM=MG
52.33
-4.85
LINDE
LING5YEUAM=MG
37.00
3.27
INVE5YEUAM=MG
59.75
-3.95
SWEDEN
SEGV5YUSAC=MG
17.50
2.94
FINO5YEUAM=MG
100.00
-3.22
BK OF SCOTLAND
BSCT5YEUAM=MG
57.17
2.54
CREDIT IMPROVEMENT - HIGHER RISK ENTITIES (CDS whose 5Yr spreads are >=500bps)
ConvSprd % Chg
CREDIT DETERIORATION - HIGHER RISK ENTITIES (CDS whose 5Yr spreads are >=500bps)
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
Name
RIC
ConvSprd % Chg
Name
RIC
ConvSprd % Chg
PROSIEBENSAT1 ISS AS
PSMG5YEUAM=MG FSFN5YEUAM=MG
152.50 93.75
-6.73 -3.02
DEXIA CR LOCAL
DEXC5YEUAM=MG
237.50
2.15
ALCATEL LUCENT
ALCA5YEUAM=MG
328.50
1.02
ISRAEL ELECTRIC
ISEA5YUSAC=MG
270.00
-2.61
SPAIN
ESGV5YUSAC=MG
130.00
0.91
BANCO POPOLARE
BCVE5YEUAM=MG
228.33
-2.42
SCANDNVN AIR SYS
SASA5YEUAM=MG
387.50
0.91
NXP
NXP5YEUAM=MG
199.00
-1.73
HEIDELBGCEMENT
HEIG5YEUAM=MG
176.00
0.86
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