11(7) 2020 ITJEMAST Research Papers by TuEngr.com

Volume 11 Issue 7 (2020) ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642

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RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POSITIVITY, POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EFFECTS AMONG CARDIAC PATIENTS: MEDIATING ROLE OF PERCEIVED STRESS FINANCIAL MECHANISM FOR COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATION DEVELOPMENT: VECTOR APPROACH

BAMBOO APPLICATION IN BUILDING DESIGN: CASE STUDY OF GREEN SCHOOL, BALI, INDONESIA

APPLICATIONS OF ONLINE VIDEO CONFERENCING IN HIGHER EDUCATION: CASE OF SAUDI ARABIA

NEXUS OF FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY AND INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY

FACTORS AFFECTING THE HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY PATTERN IN RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

FACTORS INFLUENCING ISLAMIC BANKING ADOPTION: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL CONSUMER MARKET DEVELOPMENT: A CASE OF LIPETSK REGION EVALUATION ON ROAD TRANSPORT PROJECTS INVESTMENT AND PROPOSALS DEVELOPMENT FOR THEIR IMPROVEMENT IN RUSSIA MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES EFFECT ON FOOD ITEMS CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN PAKISTAN THE ORIGINS OF RUSSIAN LIBERAL JURISPRUDENCE: B.A. KISTYAKOVSKYâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S PHILOSOPHY AND SOCIOLOGY OF LAW SIMULATION OF SEQUENTIAL PROCESSING OF A MOVING EXTENDED OBJECT COMPUTER MODEL FOR TRICKLE IRRIGATION SYSTEM DESIGN

MEASURING EXTENDED ROLES OF E-COMMERCE INCLUSION FOR THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF WEBSITE SERVICE QUALITY FOR CUSTOMER SATISFACTION USING WEBQUAL MODEL: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF SAUDI ARABIAN AIRLINES HOW DOES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BANK EFFICIENCY? EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN COUNTRIES EFFECTS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE ON HR OUTCOMES IN THE SAUDI PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES PREPARATION OF OXO METHACRYLATECONTAINING POLYMER/CLAY BASED NANOCOMPOSITES URBANISATION IN AJMAN PUSHING BY HOUSING DEVELOPMENT MAXIMUM EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS FOR A FINITE SAMPLE CASE OPTIMAL CONTROL AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF TUBERCULOSIS MODEL WITH FAST AND SLOW PROGRESSION DUAL-BAND HELICAL ANTENNAS FOR NAVIGATION RECEIVERS

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

International Editorial Board

Editor-in-Chief Ahmad Sanusi Hassan, PhD Professor Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA

Executive Editor Boonsap Witchayangkoon, PhD Associate Professor Thammasat University, THAILAND

Editorial Board:

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mohamed Gadi (University of Nottingham, UNITED KINGDOM) Professor Dr.Hitoshi YAMADA (Yokohama National University, JAPAN) Professor Dr. Chuen-Sheng Cheng (Yuan Ze University, TAIWAN ) Professor Dr.Mikio SATOMURA (Shizuoka University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Chuen-Sheng Cheng (Yuan Ze University, TAIWAN) Emeritus Professor Dr.Mike Jenks (Oxford Brookes University, UNITED KINGDOM ) Professor Dr.I Nyoman Pujawan (Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, INDONESIA) Professor Dr.Toshio YOSHII (EHIME University, JAPAN) Professor Dr.Neven Duić (University of Zagreb, CROATIA) Professor Dr.Dewan Muhammad Nuruzzaman (University Malaysia Pahang MALAYSIA) Professor Dr.Masato SAITOH (Saitama University, JAPAN)

Scientific and Technical Committee & Editorial Review Board on Engineering, Technologies and Applied Sciences:

Associate Prof. Dr. Paulo Cesar Lima Segantine (University of São Paulo, BRASIL) Associate Prof. Dr. Kurt B. Wurm (New Mexico State University, USA ) Associate Prof. Dr. Truong V.B.Giang (Vietnam National University, Hanoi, VIETNAM) Associate Prof. Dr. Fatemeh Khozaei (Islamic Azad University Kerman Branch, IRAN) Assistant Prof.Dr. Zoe D. Ziaka (International Hellenic University, GREECE) Associate Prof.Dr. Junji SHIKATA (Yokohama National University, JAPAN) Assistant Prof.Dr. Akeel Noori Abdul Hameed (University of Sharjah, UAE) Assistant Prof.Dr. Rohit Srivastava (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, INDIA) Assistant Prof. Dr.Muhammad Yar Khan (COMSATS University, Pakistan) Assistant Prof. Dr. David Kuria (Kimathi University College of Technology, KENYA ) Dr. Mazran bin Ismail (Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA ) Dr. Salahaddin Yasin Baper (Salahaddin University - Hawler, IRAQ ) Dr. Foong Swee Yeok (Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA) Dr.Azusa FUKUSHIMA (Kobe Gakuin University, JAPAN) Dr.Yasser Arab (Ittihad Private University, SYRIA) Dr.Arslan Khalid (Shandong University, CHINA)

:: International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies

Volume 11 Issue 7 (2020) http://TuEngr.com

ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642

FEATURE PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POSITIVITY, POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EFFECTS AMONG CARDIAC PATIENTS: MEDIATING ROLE OF PERCEIVED STRESS

11A07A

FINANCIAL MECHANISM FOR COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATION DEVELOPMENT: VECTOR APPROACH

11A07B

APPLICATIONS OF ONLINE VIDEO CONFERENCING IN HIGHER EDUCATION: CASE OF SAUDI ARABIA

11A07C

FACTORS AFFECTING THE HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY PATTERN IN RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

11A07D

MEASURING EXTENDED ROLES OF E-COMMERCE INCLUSION FOR THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF WEBSITE SERVICE QUALITY FOR CUSTOMER SATISFACTION USING WEBQUAL MODEL: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF SAUDI ARABIAN AIRLINES

11A07E

HOW DOES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BANK EFFICIENCY? EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN COUNTRIES

11A07F

EFFECTS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE ON HR OUTCOMES IN THE SAUDI PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES

11A07G

PREPARATION OF OXO METHACRYLATE-CONTAINING POLYMER/CLAY BASED NANOCOMPOSITES

11A07H

URBANISATION IN AJMAN PUSHING BY HOUSING DEVELOPMENT

11A07I

MAXIMUM EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS FOR A FINITE SAMPLE CASE

11A07J

OPTIMAL CONTROL AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF TUBERCULOSIS MODEL WITH FAST AND SLOW PROGRESSION

11A07K

DUAL-BAND HELICAL ANTENNAS FOR NAVIGATION RECEIVERS

11A07L

BAMBOO APPLICATION IN BUILDING DESIGN: CASE STUDY OF GREEN SCHOOL, BALI, INDONESIA

11A07M

NEXUS OF FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY AND INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY

11A07N

FACTORS INFLUENCING ISLAMIC BANKING ADOPTION: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

11A07O

ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL CONSUMER MARKET DEVELOPMENT: A CASE OF LIPETSK REGION

11A07P

EVALUATION ON ROAD TRANSPORT PROJECTS INVESTMENT AND PROPOSALS DEVELOPMENT FOR THEIR IMPROVEMENT IN RUSSIA

11A07Q

MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES EFFECT ON FOOD ITEMS CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN PAKISTAN

11A07R

THE ORIGINS OF RUSSIAN LIBERAL JURISPRUDENCE: B.A. KISTYAKOVSKYâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S PHILOSOPHY AND SOCIOLOGY OF LAW

11A07S

SIMULATION OF SEQUENTIAL PROCESSING OF A MOVING EXTENDED OBJECT

11A07T

COMPUTER MODEL FOR TRICKLE IRRIGATION SYSTEM DESIGN

11A07U

Contacts: Professor Dr.Ahmad Sanusi Hassan (Editor-in-Chief), School of Housing, Building and Planning, UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA, 11800 Minden, Penang, MALAYSIA. Tel: +60-4-653-2835 Fax: +60-4-657 6523, Sanusi@usm.my, Editor@TuEngr.com Associate Professor Dr.Boonsap Witchayangkoon (Executive Editor), Thammasat School of Engineering, THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY, Klong-Luang, Pathumtani, 12120, THAILAND. Tel: +66-2-5643005 Ext 3101. Fax: +66-2-5643022 DrBoonsap@gmail.com, Editor@TuEngr.com Managing Office TUENGR Group, 88/244 Moo 3, Moo Baan Saransiri, Klong#2, KlongLuang, Pathumtani, 12120, THAILAND. Tel/WhatsApp: +66-995535450. P l P id i MALAYSIA/THAILAND Side image is Durian (Durio zibethinus), the King of Fruit.

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07A

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POSITIVITY, POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE AFFECT AMONG CARDIAC PATIENTS: MEDIATING ROLE OF PERCEIVED STRESS 1

Abdul Sattar Ghaffari , Malik Mureed Hussain , 3 4* 5* Muhammad Tahir , Shagufta Bibi , Arslan Khalid 1

Zhongtai Securities, Institute for Financial Studies, School of Mathematics, Shandong University, Jinan, CHINA. 2 Department of Psychology International Islamic University, Islamabad, PAKISTAN. 3 School of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, CHINA. 4 School of Psychology, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, CHINA 5 Department of Health Psychology, School of Nursing, Shandong University, Jinan, CHINA. ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 24 June 2019 Received in revised form 16 December 2019 Accepted 10 January 2020 Available online 28 January 2020

The number of factors involved in the development of negative affects among patients suffering in cardiovascular disorder. The psycho-social risk factors, including depressive symptoms, anxiety, exhaustion, anger, and negative affect develop negative emotions in cardiovascular patients. A high positive affect independently relates to decreased cardiovascular disease ratio, whereas low positive affect Keywords: Heart diseases; Positivity; predicts adverse cardiovascular consequences. The current study aimed to explore the relationship between positivity, positive and negative Perceived stress scale; Positive affects; Negative effects by using perceived stress as a mediating factor among cardiac affects; Cardiac disorder; patients. We recruited 519 cardiac patients aged 20-73 years. All Negative affectivity; participants provided written informed consent. .Assessments included Response to stress. the positivity Scale, Perceived Stress Scale, and Negative and Positive Affect Scale. The results indicated that the perceived stress intermediate between positive and negative affect and stress also negatively affects the emotional relationship. Positivity had an opposite relationship with the negative affect and the perceived stress negative relationship with positive affect. Whereas; the negative affect was a significant positive relationship with perceived stress. The positive emotions are helpful for cardiac patients to reduce the negative feelings which cause to enhance the stress factor. Stress factors can be reduced by patient awareness, using stress prevention strategies and well-being interventions. Disciplinary: Health Sciences & Management, Psychological Sciences. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

*Corresponding author (S.Bibi, shaguftamalik409@yahoo.com; A.Khalid arslankhalid1989@yahoo.com) ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07A http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.121

1. INTRODUCTION Life is embedded with the number of stress factors that play essential roles in developing a physical illness such as cardiovascular diseases. Previous reports indicated that unmanageable stress depicted problematic emotional regulations and ended up in germinating cardiac ailments (Begley, 1994). The compelling psychosocial risk factors of cardiovascular diseases are negative emotions which include anger and anxiety. Contrarily, the psychosocial factors that turn out to be the cardio-protective potential factors are positively affecting factors. Positive affect resulted in enhancement of cheerfulness, life activity and joy in mood states (Roest, et al, 2010; Melamed et al, 2006). A high positive affect has been independently related to low cardiovascular disease ratio. Whereas, a low positive affect predicts adverse cardiovascular consequences like death even with percutaneous coronary intervention (Chida and Steptoe, 2008: Heo et al, 2009; Denollet, and Brutsaert, 2001). Different studies have shown that cardiac patients preceding put less positive affect, resulting in inbuilt- anger, hostility, and jealousy ultimately prone to other cardiac complications. These people do not have smart and effective coping strategies to confront life stressors (Low et al., 1998). Positive psychologists have put great attention to create awareness for optimal well-being in human functioning to fulfill the fundamental element of life including satisfaction, self-esteem, and optimism, which are related to positivity and have a positive affect. Researchers defined positivity as “a capacity of an individual to observe the life with positive way after plenty of experiences” (Milioni, et al., 2016; Alessandri, et al., 2012; Caprara et al., 2017; 2009). Enriched positivity is related to the productive and adequate state of mood and improves positive affect with significantly decreased negative affect (Alessandri et al., 2012; Caprara et al., 2012; 2017). Positivity plays a role to improve the positive affect and reduce the negative affect of risk factors on life, however; the factors that contribute among these relationships still need to be investigated. An impending mediating variable is found to be “perceived stress in cardiac patients”. Lazarus and Folkman's postulate indicated that stress as “psychological and physiological response of people although for such situation they don’t have enough resources to toggle” (Lazarus and Folkman, 1984). Perceived stress is the degree at which life situations are evaluated as stressful (Cohen et al., 1983). Conversely, in cardiac patients, the affect of perceived stress is more adverse with limited stress coping strategies (Low et al., 1998, Ghaffari et al., 2020). Another report has shown that stress is the transactional process between humans and their environment (Gloria & Steinhardt, 2014). Various research studies are conducted in the perspective of identifying the positive and negative affect among cardiac patient but the relationship of positivity among cardiac patients is in question. However, Spindler et al. (2009) throughout studied the construct of positive and negative affect by studying cardiac patients and made the scale that can be used thoroughly for studying relationship with other indicators that helps in improving health issues. Moreover, Denollet and Vries (2006) also studies the positive and negative affects relationship with perceived behavior and found that perceived stressful situation of cardiac patients affect negatively on the life of cardiac patients and it is necessary to train the cardiac patients to avoid such situation for the betterment of their health. Also, Denollet and Vries (2006) introduced some guidelines to follow in dealing with cardiac patients and their cardio diseases and attacks.

A.S. Ghaffari, R.S.Bajwa, M. Hussain, M. Tahir, S. Bibi, A. Khalid

Similarly, Versteeg et al. (2009) study the positive and negative affect to maintain the life of patients and found that negative and positive behavior directly affects the health of the person and there are certain factors that affect positively and negatively depending on upon the influencing actor and situation. Mostly, stress full situations negatively impact on the overall life of patients (Versteeg et al., 2009; Bennett et al., 2001). Furthermore, family-related situations and intervention also negatively impact on the health of cardiac patients (Hilbert, 1994). Seebach et al. (2012) and Heo et al., (2009) studied the positive and negative affects of patients but not in the case of cardiac patients but they studied a general level of patients who are suffering from any diseases or attacks. These reports provide us the new concept that positivity is an essential factor that reduced the perceived stress by using coping tactics which consequently decrease the positive influence and improve the positive response affect in oneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s life. So, our study demonstrated the role of positivity on positive and negative affect by using perceived stress as a mediating factor and also has shown the relationship between these factors in cardiac patients. This study conducts in the context of cardiac patients in Pakistan to explore the relationship of the positivity behavior of the patients on the positive and negative affects. Moreover, this study also explores the mediating role of perceived stress on the relationship between positivity behavior that affects positive or negative. This study helps in guiding the cardiac patients when we able to identify the relationship between the positivity behaviors of the cardiac patient. The doctors play leading roles in guiding and suggesting activities to train their minds and control their positive and negative thinking. Moreover, this study also helps in investigating the mediating role of perceived stress that causes positive and negative affect on the life of cardiac patients. The results will be helpful for doctors in making policies to deal with the cases of cardiac patients. The health-related institution will also use the results for making procedures and guidelines for cardiac patients to deal with perceived stress situations because nowadays cardiac diseases and attacks are common in Pakistan and the only cause behind the cardiac diseases and attacks is stressful events and situations that patients experience in their lives. Therefore, it is the responsibility of doctors and health institutions to guide them related to their stressful situation and cardiac disease and attacks. So that they will care for themselves and their family, relatives, and friends.

2. METHOD 2.1 PARTICIPANTS Participants were 519 cardiac patients age range 20â&#x20AC;&#x201C;73 years from cardiology institute Multan, Pakistan. The data was collected by using a convenience sampling technique. The questionnaire is distributed to cardiac patients to identify the positivity behavior affect is positive or negative on the patient. Moreover, items are also included that helps in identifying the mediating role of perceived stress on the relationship between the positivity behavior and positive or negative affect of cardiac patients. We only approach those patients who came to the hospital for cardiac-related problems and then get data from those patients.

2.2 MEASURING TOOLS Positivity Scale. Caprara et al (2012) developed the scale of positivity. It is a single scale that included eight items. This scale has used the five points which range strongly disagree too strongly *Corresponding author (S.Bibi, shaguftamalik409@yahoo.com; A.Khalid arslankhalid1989@yahoo.com) ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07A http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.121

agree. Cronbach’s alpha tested to confirm the reliability of this scale. The addition of all the points obtains the scoring of this scale. Perceived Stress Scale. Sumi et al. (2006) developed the perceived stress scale, which is the single-factor scale measures purely the degree of stress perceived by the person in the life situation in the past one month (Sumi et al., 2006). This scale contains 14 items. Each item is rated at 5 points Likert scale which ranges from 0 to 4 indicating the rating scales ask from never to very often about the perceived stress. This scale was found to be valid and reliable because it's alpha value is above 0.7. The total of the scale is obtained by getting the sum of all items. The scoring method of this scale instructs that higher scores on this scale illustrate higher levels of perceived stress in the individual. Positive and Negative Affect Scale. Watson et al (1988) developed this scale. This scale is consisting of two subscales namely negative and positive affects. Each subscale has 8 items that are measuring negative and positive affects individually. All the items have a rating scale that ranges from 1 (never) to 6 (very often). The Cronbach’s alpha value of the scale is higher than 0.7, which depicts a higher reliability ratio of the scale. The total of each subscale is done first then it is interpreting from the score which subscale sore is higher than the other. It shows that if the score is higher in subscale, then an individual has more effect on that factor (Watson et al., 1988).

2.3 PROCEDURE A consent form was signed from all the cardiac patients before the study and questionnaire were provided to them to fill. The questionnaire included Positivity Scale, Perceived Stress Scale, and Negative and Positive Affect Scale. It was made sure to the participants that their results would remain confidential, and it is up to them whether they want to participate or not. The participants were asked to complete the questionnaire at their own risk. Before taking the participants, they were briefed about the nature of the study and its usefulness to society. Data was collected and analyzed by using SPSS software to evaluate the results. In the mediation analysis, we calculate paths a, b, c and c’. The path a denotes the association positivity with perceived stress, path b association of perceived stress with positive and negative affect, path c associations of positivity with positive and negative affect and path c’ is the association of positivity with positive and negative affect after adding perceived stress as a mediator.

2.4 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS Various ethics were taken into consideration to carry out the study. An authority letter was presented to the authority of the relevant university explaining the nature of the study and requested permission for the data collection. The written consent form was taken from all the participants. The participants were also ensured regarding the confidentiality and anonymity of all the data collected from them. It was ensured that no physical or psychological distress was given to the participants.

3. RESULTS Table 1 shows that positivity has a significant negative relationship with perceived stress (r= -0.704, p<0.05) and has a significant positive relationship with positive affect (r= 0.112, p<.05). Positivity has a significant negative relationship with negative affects (r=-.359, p< .05). Perceived stress also has a significant negative relationship with positive affect (r= -.238, p< .05) whereas negative affect has a positive significant relationship with perceived stress ( r =.637, p<.05).

A.S. Ghaffari, R.S.Bajwa, M. Hussain, M. Tahir, S. Bibi, A. Khalid

Table 2, indicated the perceived stress as a mediator and positive affects as an outcome. Perceived stress explained the relationship between positive affect and positivity. Results depicted the significant association between positive affects estimated by perceived stress. The significant negative association of positivity with positive affects was observed among both male and female cardiac patients (from path a). The significant negative association of positivity was observed among both male and female cardiac patients (from path b). From path ‘c’ positive significant association of positivity was determined among male cardiac patients but no significant positive association observed in female patients. Table 1: Correlation analysis among positivity, perceived stress, positive affect, and negative affect. Positivity Perceived Stress Positive Affect Negative Affect M SD

Positivity --

Perceived Stress -.704** --

Positive affect .112* -.238** --

Negative affect -.359** .637** -.436** -28.0 4.88

24.15 28.42 27.9 3.88 5.22 4.74 Note. M-Mean, SD= Standard Deviation;**p < 0.01, *p < 0.05

Table 2: Mediating analysis results, with positive affect as the outcome and perceived stress as a mediator. Predictors Male Positivity Female Positivity

Path Coefficients B C

C’

axb (BCa 95% CI)

-.858***

-.272***

.120*

-.113

.233 (.160, .27)

.086

12.864

-1.152***

-.283*

.119

-.207

.326 (.368, 1.638)

.024

2.898

Thus, perceived stress fully mediates the relationship between positivity and positive affects among male cardiac patients because when perceived stress was involved in the model as a mediator, the direct pathway between positivity and positive affects did not statistically significant (from path c´). To evaluate the affect size of the mediating pathway, the proportion of the total effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable (c) that was mediated by perceived stress was calculated using the formula (a × b)/c by following (Li et al., 2015). For male patients, the proportions of perceived stress mediation were 86% for positivity for males. Table 3: Mediating analysis results, with negative affect as the outcome and perceived stress as mediator. Predictors

Path Coefficients b C

c’

axb (BCa 95% CI)

Male Positivity -.858*** .510*** -.126* .312 -.438 (-.550, -.339) .248 45.275 Female Positivity -1.152*** 1.081*** -1.201*** .044 -1.245 (-2.082, -.816) .959 2766.794 Path coefficients, a × b products, and BCa 95% CI for these products are presented in this table.

Table 3 shows the perceived stress as a mediator variable with a negative affect as the outcome variable. Table 3 explained the negative association of positivity with a negative affect between both male and female cardiac patients (from path a). From the ‘b’ path a positive association of *Corresponding author (S.Bibi, shaguftamalik409@yahoo.com; A.Khalid arslankhalid1989@yahoo.com) ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07A http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.121

perceived stress and negative affect from both male and female patients. From a ‘c’ path negative association between positivity and negative affect was observed. Hence, perceived stress fully mediates the relationship between positivity and negative affects among both male and female patients because when perceived stress was involved in the model as a mediator, the direct pathway between positivity and negative affects did not statistically significant (from path c´). To evaluate the affect size of the mediating pathway, we have calculated the proportion of the total effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable (c) that was mediated by perceived stress using the formula (a × b)/c by following (Li et al., 2015). For male patients, the proportions of perceived stress mediation were 24.8% for negativity for males and 95.9% for female patients.

4. DISCUSSION Previous studies have demonstrated the effect of different physiological factors on cardiac patients’ health status but the direct relationship of positivity, positive and negative affects with cardiac patients are indicated in our study. The objective of the present study was to determine the nature of the relationship that exists between perceived stress, positivity, positive affects and negative affects in cardiac patients. Our results indicated the role of different physiological factors in patients who suffered from cardiac disorders. Correlation analysis showed positivity has a significant negative relationship with perceived stress (r= -.704, p< .05) and has a significant positive relationship with positive affect (r= 0.112, p<.05). The results also indicate that the positivity has a negative relationship with negative affect. The perceived stress is also found to have a negative relationship with positive affect and the negative affect as a positive relationship with perceived stress. Our findings show that in cardiac patients, positivity has a negative influence on the perceived stress and a significant positive relationship. Our data also reveals that perceived stress is the significant factor of negative affect in cardiac patients. Begley (1994) shown that physiological factors and life situations directly related to the cardiovascular system. Different studies have demonstrated that cardiac patients are more prone to stress which ultimately increases the negative affect factor. As our results showing that the total affect of positivity and perceived stress was .112, which is significant and predicted the level and affect the perceived stress on health status. However, positivity directly connected with perceived stress which increases the positive affect value up to -.315. These results suggested that perceived stress might be the mediator between positivity and positive affect. Many recent reports have shown that a good mood with stress reliving strategies could be beneficial for cardiac patients. Lockwood and colleague’s results have shown that using strategies like humor to tackle the stress factors resulted in less blood vessel blockage, fewer angioplasties, fewer heart assaults, and a more prominent life span at the point (Lockwood, 2011). It has been shown that the experience of "charming" or mirthful feelings balances the pernicious, long haul physical impacts of troubling feelings (Sultanoff, 1998). Consequently, these inquire about further recommend that an entertaining way of life expands a person's capacity to additional successfully oversee enthusiastic misery, accordingly diminishing the harming physical effect of these conceivably unsafe feelings.

A.S. Ghaffari, R.S.Bajwa, M. Hussain, M. Tahir, S. Bibi, A. Khalid

Our study also revealed the positive affect and negative affect based on positivity and perceived stress in relation to gender. The results indicated that positivity decreases the perceived stress by increasing the positive affect and lowering the negative affecton male cardiac patients. Our results are consistent with previous studies on the normal population that positivity reduces the level of negative affectwhich further effects the perceived stress (Rosenbaum et al., 2012). Taken together, our data provide compelling evidence that positivity is directly related to perceived stress which increases the positive affect and reduces the negative affect among cardiac patients. Different factors influence the disease status including stress that has been considered as the main factor in cardiac patients. The number of other factors like smoking and diet could be the main disease promoter. All these factors together increase the risk of heart diseases in humans. So, it is suggested that in order to minimize the threat of chronic heart diseases in our society, it is important to spread awareness in the people about the causes and consequences of heart diseases. The heart is the main organ in our body that works 24/7 without any rest. Hence, any defect in that organ may lead to death. Creating awareness about such factors among cardiac patients could be beneficial to reduce the burden of disease and increases the chances of recovery. To improve the psychosocial well-being of the patient suffering from cardiac problems are used to counsel and support the patient. Interventions are implemented to manage stress and negative affects. It is recommended that different indicators are used to determine positivity related to personality traits. Patients are not only treated therapeutically but counseling is also required for patient fast recovery. Complete medication makes the patient with negative outcomes and failure of incomplete recovery. Educating the patients on how to control stress and negative emotions might be beneficial for cardiac patients. In this way, the mortality rate of the patient might be reduced.

5. CONCLUSION Positive emotions are supportive for the cardiac patients to lowering the negative feelings that increase the stress factor. Stress factors can be decreased by patient awareness, using stress prevention strategies and well-being interventions. Perceived stress is intermediate among the positive and negative affects. The perceived stress also intermediates between the positivity and positive affect. Positivity was found to be associated with negative affect and positive affect via perceived stress. The positive affects are associated with the happiness, successful outcomes and positive behavior of the cardiac patients. Positive affect is associated with good health behaviors, including physical exercise, dietary and adherence to medical advice. While negative affect includes unpleasant emotional experiences like distress, depression, hostility, etc. The stress and negative affects are also affected by the emotional relationship. It is also concluded that perceived stress has a negative relationship with positive affects. The psychological, biological and cognitive responses to stress, affect cardiac diseases regarding cardiac outcomes. Daily life stress causes psychosis and depression for cardiac patients. The models of adaptations towards illness play an important role in cardiac disease treatment. The strong relationships among positive affect and well-being found to be important for the evolving intervention programs, that will promote the development of adaptive illness models and coping behaviors, not only by focusing the negative aspects of illness and life but *Corresponding author (S.Bibi, shaguftamalik409@yahoo.com; A.Khalid arslankhalid1989@yahoo.com) ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07A http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.121

also by emphasizing positive emotions and positive life encounters. Our data suggest that perceived stress plays an essential role to facilitate the positivity with negative affect and positive affect could improve the health status of people associated with management. The increased level of positivity is beneficial to reduce the perceived stress, which ultimately decreasing negative affects and promoting positive affect. Therefore, patient awareness and positive psychological interventions that pay attention to positivity might be beneficial to lowering the negative affect and increasing the level of positive affect. Our data also provide different strategies’ to manage the stress level in cardiac patients which might be beneficial.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Information can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Alessandri G, Caprara GV, Tisak J. (2012). Further explorations on the unique contribution of positive orientation to optimal functioning.Eur Psychol. 17(1):44–54. Begley, T. (1994). Expressed and suppressed anger as predictors of health complaints. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 15(6), pp.503-516. Bennett, P., Conway, M., Clatworthy, J., Brooke, S., & Owen, R. (2001). Predicting post-traumatic symptoms in cardiac patients. Heart & lung, 30(6), 458-465. Caprara GV, Alessandri G, Eisenberg N. (2012). The positivity scale. Psychol Assess. 24(3):701–712 Caprara GV, Eisenberg N, Alessandri G. (2017). Positivity: the dispositional basis of happiness. J Happiness Stud. 18(2):353–371. Caprara GV, Fagnani C, Alessandri G, et al. (2009). Human optimal functioning: the genetics of positive orientation towards self, life, and the future. Behav Genet. 39(3):277–284. Chida Y and Steptoe A. (2008). The association of anger and hostility with future coronary heart disease: A metaanalytic review of prospective evidence. J Am CollCardiol. 17: 936–946 Cohen S, Kamarck T, Mermelstein R. (1983). A global measure of perceived stress. J Health SocBehav. 24(3):385–396. Denollet, J., & Brutsaert, D. (2001). Reducing Emotional Distress Improves Prognosis in Coronary Heart Disease. Circulation, 104(17), 2018-2023. Denollet, J., & De Vries, J. (2006). Positive and negative affect within the realm of depression, stress and fatigue: The two-factor distress model of the Global Mood Scale (GMS). Journal of affective disorders, 91(2-3), 171-180. Ghaffari, A.S., Bajwa, R.S., Hussain, M., Tahir, M., Bibi, S., Khalid, A. (2020). Hospital Anxiety and Depression of Patients with Heart Failure in South Punjab Pakistan: A Sectional Survey Study. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 11(6), 11A06C: 1-10. Gloria, C., & Steinhardt, M. (2014). Relationships Among Positive Emotions, Coping, Resilience and Mental Health. Stress And Health, 32(2), 145-156. doi: 10.1002/smi.2589.

A.S. Ghaffari, R.S.Bajwa, M. Hussain, M. Tahir, S. Bibi, A. Khalid

Heo, S., Lennie, T. A., Okoli, C., & Moser, D. K. (2009). Quality of life in patients with heart failure: ask the patients. Heart & Lung, 38(2), 100-108. Hilbert, G. A. (1994). Cardiac patients and spouses: family functioning and emotions. Clinical Nursing Research, 3(3), 243-252. Lazarus R, Folkman S. (1984). Stress, Appraisal, and Coping. New York:Springer; 1984. Li, X., Kan, D., Liu, L., Shi, M., Wang, Y., Yang, X., ...& Wu, H. (2015). The mediating role of psychological capital on the association between occupational stress and job burnout among bank employees in China. International journal of environmental research and public health, 12(3), 2984-3001. Lockwood, N. (2011). The heart of the matter: The functional and relational effects of humor for cardiovascular patients. Retrieved from http://www.myheartsisters.org Low K. G, Fleisher C, Colman R, Dionne A, Casey G, Legendre S. (1998). Psychosocial variables, age, and angiographically-determined coronary artery disease in women. Annals of behavioral medicine. 20(3): 221-226. DOI: 10.1007/BF02884964 Melamed S, Shirom A, Toker S, et al. (2006). Burnout and risk of cardiovascular disease: Evidence, possible causal paths, and promising research directions. Psychol Bull. 132: 327–353 Milioni M, Alessandri G, Eisenberg N, Caprara GV. (2016). The role of positivity as a predictor of ego-resiliency from adolescence to young adulthood.PersIndivid Differ. 101:306–311. Roest, A.M. , Martens, E. J, Denollet, J., et al. (2010). Prognostic association of anxiety post myocardial infarction with mortality and new cardiac events: A meta-analysis. Psychosom Med; 72: 563–569. Rosenbaum, D. L., White, K. S., &Gervino, E. V. (2012). The impact of perceived stress and perceived control on anxiety and mood disorders in noncardiac chest pain. Journal of Health Psychology, 17(8), 1183–1192. DOI: 10.1177/1359105311433906 Seebach, C. L., Kirkhart, M., Lating, J. M., Wegener, S. T., Song, Y., Riley III, L. H., & Archer, K. R. (2012). Examining the role of positive and negative affect in recovery from spine surgery. Pain, 153(3), 518-525. Spindler, H., Denollet, J., Kruse, C., & Pedersen, S. S. (2009). Positive affect and negative affect correlate differently with distress and health-related quality of life in patients with cardiac conditions: Validation of the Danish Global Mood Scale. Journal of Psychosomatic Research, 67(1), 57-65. Sultanoff, S. M. (1998). The health benefits of humor unfold, humor reduces the risk of heart disease, therapeutic humor. The Newsletter of the American Association for Therapeutic Humor. Sumi K. (2006). Reliability and validity of the Japanese version of the Perceived Stress Scale. Jpn J Health Psychol. 19(2):44–53. Versteeg, H., Pedersen, S. S., Erdman, R. A., van Nierop, J. W., de Jaegere, P., & van Domburg, R. T. (2009). Negative and positive affect are independently associated with patient-reported health status following percutaneous coronary intervention. Quality of Life Research, 18(8), 953-960. Watson, D., Clark, L. A., & Tellegen, A. (1988). Development and validation of brief measure of positive and negative affect: The PANAS scales. Journal of Personality and Social *Corresponding author (S.Bibi, shaguftamalik409@yahoo.com; A.Khalid arslankhalid1989@yahoo.com) ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07A http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07A.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.121

Psychology, 54(6), 1063–1070. Abdul Sattar Ghaffari is a PhD Scholar, Zhongtai Securities, Institute for Financial Studies, School of Mathematics, Shandong University, Jinan, China. He holds a Master of Philosophy in Statistics. His research interest is Psychological and Medical Data Analysis.

Dr. Malik Mureed Hussain is Director, Multan Postgraduate College, Multan, Pakistan. He holds PhD degree in Psychology. His research interest is Psychology.

Muhammad Tahir is a PhD Scholar, School Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China. He holds a Master of Philosophy in Medicine. His Research interest is Clinical Medicine.

Shagufta Bibi is a PhD Scholar, School of Psychology, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, China. She holds a Master’s Degree in Psychology. Her research interest is Applied Psychology.

Dr.Arslan Khalid does a Post-Doctorate in Health Psychology from Department of Health Psychology, School of Nursing, Shandong University, Jinan, China. He holds a PhD Degree in Medical Psychology from Department of Medical Psychology, School of Basic Medical Ethics, School of Medical Sciences, Shandong University, Jinan, China. His research interest is Medical Psychology.

A.S. Ghaffari, R.S.Bajwa, M. Hussain, M. Tahir, S. Bibi, A. Khalid

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07B

FINANCIAL MECHANISM FOR COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATION DEVELOPMENT: VECTOR APPROACH Lyudmila Zaporozhtseva 1*, Victoria Malitskaya 2, Maria Chirkova 3, 3 Yuliya Tkacheva 1, Irina Kuznetsova 1

Department of Finance and Credit, Voronezh State Agrarian University named after Emperor Peter the Great 1, RUSSIA. 2 Accounting and Taxation Department, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, RUSSIA. 3 Accounting and Audit Department, Voronezh State Agrarian University named after Emperor Peter the Great 1, RUSSIA. ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 30 July 2019 Received in revised form 06 January 2020 Accepted 16 January 2020 Available online 28 January 2020

The assessment of modern ideas of the economic essence of the development of a commercial organization is carried out, by which we are invited to understand its irreversible change, under the influence of which qualitative and quantitative indicators are updated. There was revealed their dependence on the indicator of economic value added (EVA) and the Golden Economic Rule. As a result, it is proposed to understand the financial way to develop the commercial organization as the totality of changes in financial indicators that are formed under conditions of criteria-based compliance with the golden economic rule and the creation of economic added value. Based on a combination of interpreted results according to the criteria for the formation of the financial way, three scenarios are identified, each of which corresponds to a certain financial way of the development of the enterprise. A calculation is presented for the identification of Phoenix limited liability company (LLC) based on our proposed methodology for assessing the formation of the financial development vector. The second way is proposed, namely the adjustment of the strategy of Phoenix LLC in terms of profit management based on the application of operational analysis, sensitivity analysis, and the multivariate calculation method. The set course of the target financial way will allow Phoenix LLC to increase the scale of its activity, increase capacity and ensure an increase in competitive advantages.

Keywords:

Golden Economic Rule; Financial development vector, Strategy; Operational analysis; Sustainable development strategy; Enterprise financial strategy.

Disciplinary: Economic and Management Sciences. 2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Maintaining and ensuring the competitiveness of a commercial organization in the face of *Corresponding author (L.Zaporozhtseva). Tel: +7-499-989-56-65. Email: Zaporozhtseva@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International

Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07B http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07B.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.122

constantly increasing competition is possible only due to its continuous development. Because of this, it is of great importance to determine the factors that can guarantee the enterprise development to one degree or another, depending on the current situation. Also, when assessing the existing business environment for a commercial organization, a clear understanding of the onset of the moment from which development begins or continues is necessary (Adizes, 2007). Operating with a certain idea of development and guided by its level at a particular moment in time, in the financial management system it is possible to achieve the most preferable degree of development of commercial structures through the application of certain tools that form a specific mechanism. The theoretical foundations of the development of a commercial organization are defined in numerous publications of representatives and supporters of domestic and Western economic schools. The interest of Russian and foreign researchers and practitioners in matters of the essence of financial strategy, as the basis of the overall strategy of a commercial organization, is justified by its direct impact on the development of the enterprise (Grandi, 1996). The works of scientific research of domestic and foreign scientists determine the specifics of the development of a commercial organization, its conditions, as well as assessment methods. However, the question of the importance of forming a financial vector in the trajectory of the life cycle of an enterprise to ensure at least a minimum level of development, under the influence of certain management criteria, has not been raised. The existing level of scientific knowledge, the need for their further qualitative improvement served as a prerequisite for an in-depth study of nature, conditions, evaluation methods and allowed to justify the formation of the financial vector of the development of a commercial organization (Miller, 1984). A sufficient degree of validity of scientific and applied provisions, conclusions and recommendations presented in this article is confirmed by the use of domestic and foreign scientists, reference materials and electronic media, financial statements of a commercial organization of the Voronezh region for several years in the process of research (Phoenix LLC). The reliability of the results is ensured by the application of general scientific and special methods of scientific knowledge. The purpose of the study is to improve the development mechanism of commercial organizations.

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS In the framework of the study of the theoretical foundations of enterprise development, and assessment of modern ideas of the economic essence of the development of a commercial organization is carried out, by which we are invited to understand its irreversible change, under the influence of which qualitative and quantitative indicators are updated. It is established that in the development is very important the fact of the availability of constant financial support, as a guarantor of security of industrial and commercial activities. Therefore, it is proposed to consider the conditions for the development of the enterprise as the formation and implementation of an effective financial strategy and ensuring the financial security of a commercial

Lyudmila Zaporozhtseva, Victoria Malitskaya, Maria Chirkova, Yuliya Tkacheva, Irina Kuznetsova

organization. In assessing the practical significance of these conditions for the development of the enterprise, we revealed their dependence on the indicator of economic value added (EVA) and the “golden” economic rule (Rotar, 2013). As a result, it is proposed to understand the financial vector of the development of a commercial organization as the totality of changes in financial indicators that are formed under conditions of criteria-based compliance with the golden economic rule and the creation of economic added value. Based on a combination of interpreted results according to the criteria for the formation of the financial vector, three scenarios are identified, each of which corresponds to a certain financial vector of the enterprise’s development (see Table 1). Table 1: Financial vectors matrix of commercial organization development. Тrp > Тrv > Тra > 100% EVA > 0 and growing EVA > 0

(1) Target (optimistic)

The golden rule of the economy is not respected, but the growth rate of its elements (Trp)> 100% (2) Basic (moderate) financial vector (3) Inertial (pessimistic) financial vector

The target (optimistic) financial vector is characterized by a combination of positive economic added value growth in compliance with the “golden” economic rule. Basic (moderate) also implies compliance with the golden economic rule, while the economic value added is not characterized by a growth trend, but it should be greater than zero. An inertial (pessimistic) financial vector is characterized by a violation of the golden economic rule, however, the growth rate of all components must exceed 100%, and one of the options for positive economic added value is growth or lack of dynamics. One of the main problems that enterprises face is the lack of a proper financial development mechanism, in which its architecture and sequence of actions would be determined. By the financial mechanism for the development of a commercial organization, we understand a holistic system that includes relatively independent and at the same time structural components that provide the enterprise with the consistent achievement of the most preferred direction of development. We have implemented the construction of such a financial mechanism based on the financial development vector (Raevneva, 2006). The financial mechanism for the development of a commercial organization, from our position, should include the following main blocks (see Figure 1): - information support for the process of evaluating the development of a commercial organization; - assessment of the formation of the financial vector of development of a commercial organization, based on which the development strategy is evaluated; - making decisions to support the identified level of development or to achieve the characteristics of the target vector; - implementation of tools for adjusting the development strategy, to achieve the target vector; - assessment of available results (Verkhoglazenko, 2014). *Corresponding author (L.Zaporozhtseva). Tel: +7-499-989-56-65. Email: Zaporozhtseva@gmail.com ©2020 International

Figure 1: The financial mechanism for the development of a commercial organization based on a financial vector Also, the financial mechanism for the development of a commercial organization should be implemented on an ongoing basis. We propose three strategies for the development of the enterprise, based on which development support measures can be selected: 1. Sustainable development strategy - this is a development strategy that expresses the desire of a commercial organization to increase, from year to year, profit, revenue, and property in a qualitative ratio to each other, as well as to increase its value. 2. The strategy of moderate development represents the same desire for quality growth, as with the strategy of sustainable development, but in the absence of growth of the non-negative added value of a commercial organization. 3. The chaotic development strategy is a development strategy in which there is no focus on the quality and constant ratio of the growth rates of profit, revenue, and property of the organization, however, each of the selected indicators should have positive dynamics, combined with increasing or unchanged positive added value of the commercial organization (Ivanov, 2010). It should be noted that each of the strategies corresponds to a certain financial vector. The target financial vector corresponds to the strategy of sustainable development, the base one is the strategy of moderate development and the inertial one is the strategy of chaotic development, respectively. Having determined the affiliation of the activities of a commercial organization with one or

Lyudmila Zaporozhtseva, Victoria Malitskaya, Maria Chirkova, Yuliya Tkacheva, Irina Kuznetsova

another development strategy, the following tasks should be solved: - maintaining the achieved level in the strategy of sustainable development together with the analysis of the information block; - with the achievement of the characteristics of the target vector in a strategy of moderate and chaotic development. This situation requires the preparation and implementation of tools for adjusting the development strategy to achieve the target vector. Then it is necessary to evaluate the results, together with the analysis of the information block (Gaponenko, 2006). Also, if a commercial organization identifies a strategy that does not support development, the following tasks should be addressed: - with reorganization; - with the formation of a financial vector through the implementation of appropriate tools.

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION Table 2 presents the calculation for the identification of Phoenix LLC based on our proposed methodology for assessing the formation of the financial development vector. Table 2: Financial vector assessment of LLC “Phoenix” development. Criteria EVA (thousand rubles) Profit growth rate (TRP), % The growth rate of revenue (TRV), % Asset Growth Rate (Tra), % The Golden Rule of Economics, Trp> Trv> Tra> 100 % Financial vector

2015 4188

2016 5464

Year 2017 5940

2018 5912

–

139.79

106.31

99.81

–

123.78

118.18

93.93

–

126.95

118.22

113.6

–

139.79>123.8 <126.95>100%

106.31<118.18<118.22>100%

99.81>93.93<113.6%>100%

–

Inertial financial vector

Not formed

It was established that in 2016-2017. The activities of Phoenix LLC were characterized by an inertial financial vector, and in 2018, the fact of the formation of a financial vector, i.e. the enterprise did not develop in terms of positive dynamics. Using the financial mechanism for the development of a commercial organization, presented earlier, we conclude that an enterprise has two functioning trajectories: reorganization and the formation of a financial vector. We have proposed the second way, namely, the adjustment of the strategy of Phoenix LLC in terms of profit management based on the application of operational analysis, sensitivity analysis, and the multivariate calculation method, by performing the following measures: - an increase in sales due to an increase in productivity by 3% with improved processing and insignificant introduction of high-yielding varieties of crop products; - increase in the price of 1 centner of grain crops by improving grain quality with tightened control over the drying process. *Corresponding author (L.Zaporozhtseva). Tel: +7-499-989-56-65. Email: Zaporozhtseva@gmail.com ©2020 International

Using our recommendations will enable Phoenix LLC in 2019 to achieve the target financial development vector and strengthen its position in the agricultural market (see Table 3). Table 3: Financial vector assessment of LLC â&#x20AC;&#x153;Phoenixâ&#x20AC;? development after applying the methods of financial management Criteria EVA (thousand rubles) Profit growth rate (TRP),% The growth rate of revenue (TRV),% Asset Growth Rate (Tra),% The Golden Rule of Economics, Trp> Trv> Tra> 100% Financial vector

Report 2018 year 5912 99.81 93.93 113.6

Plan 2019 year 17624 258.1 131.56 124.24

99.81>93.93<113.6%>100%

258.1>131.56>124.24>100%

The company is not developing

Financial target vector

The set course of the target financial vector, while maintaining it, will allow Phoenix LLC to scale up its operations, increase capacity through the production and sale of new (for the enterprise) types of agricultural products and ensure an increment in competitive advantages.

4. CONCLUSION Thus, we have developed a financial mechanism for the development of a commercial organization, which includes the following main blocks: information support for the process of assessing the development of a commercial organization; assessment of the formation of the financial vector of development of a commercial organization to identify development strategies; making decisions to support the identified level of development or to achieve the characteristics of the target vector; implementation of tools for adjusting the development strategy to achieve the target vector; assessment of existing results should act permanently. As a result, its use will allow a commercial organization to achieve the target financial development vector, strengthen its position in the market and ensure the growth of competitive advantages.

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors

6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors appreciate the financial supports from Double Twin Foundation. Helps from Mr.Sayyeses is fully acknowledged.

7. REFERENCES Adizes, I. K. (2007). Life Cycle Management Corporation. St. Petersburg, 383. Verkhoglazenko, V. N. (2014). Criterial management of company development: Monograph. M. 206. Gaponenko, A. L. Pankrukhin, A. P. (2006). Strategic management: Tutorial for universities. M.464. Grandi, T. Ward, K. (1996). Financial Business Strategy: Translation from English. M. 241. Zaporozhtseva, L. A. (2014). Strategic economic security of the enterprise: methodology of providing: Monograph. Voronezh. 261.

Lyudmila Zaporozhtseva, Victoria Malitskaya, Maria Chirkova, Yuliya Tkacheva, Irina Kuznetsova

Ivanov, Yu. V. (2010). Organization and its life cycle. Problems of the regional housekeeper. 12, 3-25. Miller, D. Frizen, P. (1984). Longyear study of the life cycle of a corporation. Scientific management. 10, 1161-1183. Raevneva, O. V. (2006). Management of business development: methodology, mechanisms: monograph. Kharkov. 493. Rotar, T. S. Niazyan, V. G. (2013). Sustainable development of the enterprise: the essence and methodology of calculating the integral index of sustainable development of the enterprise. Bulletin of the Catherine Institute. 2, 31-40. Professor Dr.Lyudmila Zaporozhtseva is Professor at Department of Finance and Credit, Voronezh State Agrarian University named after Emperor Peter the Great 1, RUSSIA. She holds a Doctor of Economics degree. Her scientific research includes Enterprise Financial Development, Financial Vector, Financial Mechanism, Commercial Organization. Professor Dr.Victoria Malitskaya is Professor of the Accounting and Taxation Department. She holds Doctor of Economics. Her scientific interests are Accounting, Analysis and Audit of Financial Assets, Consolidated Financial Statements.

Dr.Maria Chirkova an Associate Professor of the Accounting and Audit Department, Voronezh State Agrarian University named after Emperor Peter the Great 1, Russia. She has a Doctor of Economics degree. Her scientific interests are Accounting, Analysis and Audit in Trade, Accounting and Analysis of Bankruptcies. Dr.Yuliya Tkacheva is an Associate Professor at Department of Finance and Credit, Voronezh State Agrarian University named after Emperor Peter the Great 1, RUSSIA. She holds a Doctor of Economics degree. Her scientific research is Entrepreneur Development, Financial Vector, Financial Mechanism, Commercial Organization. Dr.Irina Kuznetsova is an Associate Professor at Accounting and Audit Department, Voronezh State Agrarian University named after Emperor Peter the Great 1, Russia. She holds a Doctor of Economics degree. Her scientific research encompasses Entrepreneur Innovation, Financial Vector, Financial Mechanism, Commercial Organization.

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07C

APPLICATIONS OF ONLINE VIDEO CONFERENCING IN HIGHER EDUCATION: CASE OF SAUDI ARABIA Amer Nasser Alshahrani 1

, Irfan Naufal Umar , Mariam Mohammed

School of Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia, MALAYSIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 20 August 2019 Received in revised form 11 December 2019 Accepted 16 January 2020 Available online 03 February 2020

Students’ engagement in online learning is one of the ongoing challenges in most Saudi universities, which mainly concern about making them more independent and to take charge of their own decisions. Previous studies showed that traditional supervision faces several problems related to students’ feelings of control that may occur when there is a limited clarification of the concept being studied. This Keywords: study investigated the potential of using videoconferencing in e-Video conferencing; supervision practices. Fifteen students were invited for an interview. The Higher education; results showed that students’ general perceptions of videoconferencing Student development; Lifelong learning; Online use were positive in which the majority of students were found to favor Meetings & Video the use of videoconferencing as a supplement to the face-to-face Conferencing; approach. This study would provide insights on how teleconferencing Supervision. related services can empower the current supervision practices through the use of structure and formed dialogues between students and supervisors. Disciplinary: Education).

Education

Sciences

(Information

Technology

1. INTRODUCTION Many previous studies from different perspectives have documented the profound impact of videoconferencing on students’ learning. This is simply because the utilization of technology imposes an influence on students' various cognitive experiences in different learning conditions. Based in part on the support of these influences, Saudi universities are eager to assess technology utilization in driving students’ learning experience (Smith & Abouammoh, 2013). Previous studies showed that traditional supervision faces several problems related to students’ feelings of control which may occur when there is a limited clarification of the concept being studied (Kennepohl et al., 2006). Within the Saudi context, this is commonly reasoned to the weakness in ways of communication, weak relationship between supervisors and students, lack of cooperation to understand the argument, thus mutual misunderstanding (Al-Hammad, 2000). Also, when it comes *Corresponding author (A.Nasser Alshahrani) Tel: +966555760117. Email: amer4841@gmail.com

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07C http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07C.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.123

to videoconferencing utilization, two issues with current studies have been recognized. One is the relationships between instructors and students in online supervision have not been adequately explored in Saudi higher education (Almalki, 2011; Baki, 2004). Most previous studies have tended to focus on the effects of adopting technology on students by assessing differences in online and traditional lectures rather than exploring the supervision relationship between instructors and students. Second, the little evidence of videoconferencing effectiveness for supervision purposes in certain Saudi universities may negatively influence its generalization to other universities in the Kingdom (Al Ghamdi, 2017). On the other hand, there are several issues (including lack of mechanisms to promote active interaction, and commitment to the learning task) reported by the ministry of higher education in accordance with the current practices of traditional postgraduatesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; supervision (Abdulkareem, 2001). Therefore, the current system of education at King Saud University is passing through a period of significant transition through the consideration of technological deployment for developing the quality of learnersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; learning. Such transformation requires that the process of supervision undertake a serious consideration for using online learning tools alongside traditional learning and teaching practices (Alabdulkareem, 2014). This led some universities such as King Saud University to consider the use of the videoconferencing tool as a way for facilitating lecturersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; supervision of postgraduates. This study investigated the potential of using videoconferencing in supervision practices.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 POSTGRADUATE SUPERVISION Supervision is the process of managing and guiding postgraduates throughout their research by engaging in active communication to understand a concept (Jones, 2011). A great part of the previous works is mostly focusing on distinguishing the capacities that the supervisor needs to complete, with periodic reference to an enculturation, coaching or child-rearing capacity. With the literature on learning and educating has investigated an applied approach in some profundity, there has been minimal comparable investigation for supervision (Lee, 2008) in the context of higher education. According to Denicolo (2004), university students assume to interact with supervisors for the aim of getting the necessary guidelines and suggestions on aspects related to their research works. The one-part relationship that encapsulates this uncommon juggling errand is that of doctoral students and supervisee when both are scholarly members in a similar organization. Moreover, the process associated with the instructional development and supervision helps extensively in enhancing scholarly execution of understudies (Bitzer & Albertyn, 2011). Because supervision of direction goes for upgrading educating and learning through appropriate direction and arranging, and concocting methods for enhancing instructors professionally and subsequently helping them discharge their imaginative capacities so that through them the instructional procedure is made strides (Drennan & Clarke, 2009). Meanwhile, the process for supervising students is believed to promote them to be familiar with the wellsprings of help with taking care of their instructional issues (Okendu, 2012). As such, it can be concluded that supervision as a process help educators comprehended the instructional process and helps them in the utilization of expert writing, diaries, free and reasonable showing materials,

Amer Nasser Alshahrani, Irfan Naufal Umar, Mariam Mohammed

varying media help and other related instructional instruments. In light of this, Dann (2008) illustrated the strong association between technology utilization in supervision and the students’ progress through their research works. Other previous scholars like Sinclair (2004); McCallin and Nayar (2012); Harbon and England (2006); and Hemer (2012) explained the need for exploring the role of Information Technology (IT) and ICT in advancing postgraduates’ participation to complete their projects. This includes the relationship between drop-out and non-completion rates as well as dissatisfaction with the supervision experience. Hecq (2009) and McCormack (2004) reported the potential tension between the student’s expectations of the research degree and their experience to understand and overcome various research-related challenges. Meanwhile, as a result, some conflicts between expectations and actual experiences may show up; the reason is the lack of communication between students and their supervisions in different stages of the research. Thus, the present work seeks to explore the use of videoconferencing within the Saudi context to address its potential for transforming the current supervision practices.

2.2 ACADEMIC SUPERVISION IN SAUDI ARABIA The Saudi government focuses on enhancing the society’s view of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), and in expanding open distance programs to help the nation be in line with the latest educational advances. Late advances in innovative technologies, including iPods and iPads, PDAs, and worldwide situating gadgets are demonstrating prominent with youth. The evidence in the writing of Al-Turki (2014) who discovered college understudy enthusiasm for ICT in the educational program, affirmed as of late by AlMegren and Yassin (2013). Furthermore, Saudi understudies and the workforce have inspirational states of mind to utilize the web as a part of education; distinguishing adaptability, openness, and effective correspondence as key properties. In general, teachers will consolidate ICT works in their educational modules (Alebaikan, 2010; Alghanmi, 2014). Be that as it may, Saudi colleges do not generally embrace web-based learning, incompletely because of certain issues concerning the availability and use of licensed innovation rights along with students’ participation in an online discussion. According to Attia (2014), the effective use of technology to enhance learning and supervision practices is currently one of the fundamental aspects for understudies encountering a mixed way to enable students to deal with their courses. While these matters make boundaries, additional propels in ICT and web capacity may serve to diminish their effect. Hence, an in-depth exploration of online tools in promoting studentsto-supervisor communication is needed. It is valuable to follow the advancement of supervision in Saudi Education to comprehend the way of the supervisory framework in Saudi schools. The part of supervision has changed significantly throughout the years. Before the development of Saudi Arabia and before the foundation of the Department of Education, schools were private and for the most part religious schools. The head instructor of the school is the one who takes charge of regulating and coordinating the educators in the school. Schools are mostly following a straightforward learning approach, so the supervision practices are to favor the capability of new educators and name them, to coordinate the instructor with general mandates the system should concern showing strategies, and to tackle any issues that may emerge between the school and the group. *Corresponding author (A.Nasser Alshahrani) Tel: +966555760117. Email: amer4841@gmail.com

Therefore, promoting the communication of students-supervisor is essential to enhance students’ academic performance (Bakker et al., 2015; Pluut et al., 2015). Such performance was found to be associated with the active participation of students throughout the learning stages, which the literature addressed it as a sort of students’ engagement in a learning task (Currey et al., 2015; Horstmanshof & Zimitat, 2007; Krause & Coates, 2008; Kuh, 2009; Neumann & Hood, 2009; Sakurai et al, 2016). After all, we considered the role of videoconferencing in promoting Saudi postgraduates’ online engagement in supervision activities.

2.3 VIDEO CONFERENCING Early employments of video conferencing found in medical-related studies and business applications (Knipe & Lee, 2002). The utilization of videoconferencing in this review identifies with educational programs carried via videoconferencing and the utilization of videoconferencing for preparing and boosting peer-to-peer communication. Educational programs taught via videoconferencing, as indicated by Chen and Willits (2007), is to convey a learning background to the students. It is expected to improve student learning; this contrasts from another kind of videoconference: shared classes. Not at all like shared class offerings that interface areas consistently, educational modules videoconferencing is not an ordinary event (Satar, 2016). Alternatively, it can be said that it is an intermittent affair to upgrade learning. Raths (2015) recognizes educational programs upgrade as a successful utilization of videoconferencing. This may incorporate associations with zoos, galleries, creators, theme specialists, or associations with different classrooms. Hence, videoconferencing can be a compelling apparatus for instructors' proficient advancement (Loranc-Paszylk, 2016). The videoconferencing in supervision related practices still considered an effective technique for providing the necessary services for connecting the students with their supervisors (Gordon et al., 2015; Rousmaniere & Frederickson, 2016). The difficulties incorporate the cost of the innovation and associations, the nature of the hardware, and the classroom environment and techniques that make the learning knowledge (Blau et al., 2016). There are various cases of fruitful execution of videoconferencing identified with educational modules. These encounters incorporate virtual field trips, connecting with specialists, class exchanges, and shared activities between classes. Some previous studies showed the effectiveness of using videoconferencing technology to accommodate various learning and teaching practices in higher education, particularly for supervision. For example, O’Neil et al. (2017) explore university supervisors’ perceptions and experiences with live remote supervision. They found that remote supervision may offer a practical and cost-efficient tool to supervisors and students by facilitating the supervision of field experiences in physical education and can potentially help shift towards a new paradigm of supervision in teacher education. Ingham and Fry (2016) introduced a model of supervision called 'blended supervision' and its initial implementation and evaluation. Explain how blended supervision is achieving supervision and teaching outcomes. The authors claimed that such a model using videoconferencing means for communication could potentially promote the current supervision and teaching practices, not just practices using blended supervision. Another study by Haynes, Mosley, and Dewar (2016) evaluated the use of videoconferencing to deliver and supervise a weekly

Amer Nasser Alshahrani, Irfan Naufal Umar, Mariam Mohammed

exercise for clinical purposes. Other previous studies like the one conducted by Knipe and Lee (2002) explained the effectiveness of videoconferencing in the teaching and learning based on the interaction and discussion elements that enable students to take place in the learning process. Their study found that remote site students had a positive perception of the quality of teaching and learning in remote videoconferencing. Wang (2004) showed that students' use of Internet-based desktop videoconferencing tools allow them to develop their oral communication and visual interaction, which caused the multiple communication channels that allowed students to engage in active discussion and expression of oneself. However, it is necessary to mention that some studies did not see videoconferencing as an effective tool for other learning and teaching purposes that included learning of complex concepts (Giesbers et al., 2014). Regarding the style of supervision in a videoconference meeting, Könings et al. (2016) found that supervisors can be stimulated to organize online group meetings with videoconferencing software, which might contribute to providing an effective feedback environment to students. They asserted that videoconferencing played a key mediator between supervisors and students by stimulating constructive dialogue. These observations gave knowledge to the conceivable outcomes to use videoconferencing to improve the educational programs. An assortment of methodologies has been utilized reflected in cases that incorporate virtual field trips (Fitch et al., 2016), mentoring, collaboration with other members, and diverse interactions (Alelaiwi et al., 2015). Based on these, it can be said that videoconferencing provides the necessary elements for students and instructors to communicate and discuss research related matters at any time and anywhere. Therefore, investigating the effect of such utilization on students’ online engagement in Saudi higher education is essential.

3. METHOD This study used a qualitative approach to capture students’ perceptions of videoconferencing. The convenience of students (time and willingness) after being suggested by their supervisors was considering when the participants' selection.

3.1 PROCEDURE The unstructured interview was used in this study to report students’ perceptions about the use of videoconferencing technology for supervision purposes. A total of 15 participants were randomly selected from the same sample size, based on willingness to add more insights. We interviewed students separately to precisely capture and record unique information. We noted down what’s known “reflective interview notes” to help understand the connection between different points of view. The interview results used to provide more insights about students’ perceptions of the technology under investigation, which can help in consolidating the research objects and provide the basis for extending the results-driven from the questionnaire. The main questions asked were: 1. How do you find the use of videoconferencing in supervision? *Corresponding author (A.Nasser Alshahrani) Tel: +966555760117. Email: amer4841@gmail.com

2. What are the opportunities from using videoconferencing in supervision? 3. What are the challenges of using videoconferencing for supervision? The researcher studied the existing literature Before designing the interview questions and protocol, intensively; that led to the use of open questions to understand the concept behind the research variables under investigation. Relevant theories or related themes were collected, and to each of them, several questions were developed. Based on these questions, an interview guide was developed (see section 3.7.1). To prepare the interviews, the questions were divided into different categories. However, during the interviews, the order of questions in the interview guide may not strictly follow. Due to the open and semi-structured way of conducting the study, it seemed to make more sense to let the interviewees answer the questions in an unconstrained way, mentioning everything that came into their mind.

4. RESULTS Interviewing 15 students (9 male and 6 female, 22-34 years old) in this study revealed some new insights. Regarding students’ general perceptions of videoconferencing use, students, in general, favored the use of videoconferencing as a supplement to the face-to-face approach. For example, one participant stated that “I feel more relaxed when I communicate with my supervisor via the provided videoconferencing system at the university; it’s like saying we are all in this together.” Another student was mostly concerned about the supervisors’ role in investing the time for their students after formal discussion. For example, he stated that “My supervisor and I may set some goals in my research and try to achieve them, but sometimes the supervisor still needs to remain about the progress we had, and that’s why sometimes it is better to meet the supervisor from time to time to discuss key points before we use the video conferencing tool.” Other students addressed the potential of this tool in facilitating their research schedule and provide a way to continue their research, especially when they are staying away from the university campus. One student, in particular, shared that “…..using videoconferencing is a solution to my communication problem as my supervisor speaks English, so I usually find it difficult to understand some words. When we use videoconferencing, I usually record the session and replay again to make sure that I am in the right direction.” As for the opportunities from using the video conferencing tool, the majority of students expressed different interesting benefits from such use, for example, one participant stated that “one important benefit from using this medium is actually in making it easy for me to share my thoughts with my supervisors and search at the same time for solutions online.”

Amer Nasser Alshahrani, Irfan Naufal Umar, Mariam Mohammed

Other concerns were mostly related to the recording of the session and writing down notes for students to use every time they meet with their supervisor face-to-face. For example, two students expressed that “……yes true, I use it when I have to stay with my family which is like 60 km away from the main campus. My supervisor doesn’t mind meeting me frequently via videoconferencing. And I find sharing my desktop with my supervisor via the videoconferencing tool is something essential, especially when I am working on statistical matters that require my supervisor’s guide.” “It depends, I like using the screen recording option we have here because I can replay it when I work on the revisions. My supervisor also likes to use the sharing doc option where we can highlight some important parts to extend…” From there, it can be said that the main opportunities from using video conferencing among students at King Saud University can be narrowed into its potential to make it easy for students to meet their supervisors at any time and from anywhere; sharing files and screen; recording the session; reduce communication barriers when the supervisor is a foreigner, and help students monitor with their supervisor about the work progress. As for the challenges of the videoconferencing tool, majority of the students addressed the Internet speed issue, for example, one student stated that “for some reasons when I use the screen sharing option with my supervisor, the connection starts to be slow and even may lead to some difficulties in maintaining the session.” Another interesting aspect that was highlighted by one student is the need for a reminder or notification to help the student and supervisor to meet, for example, “compared to Skype for business, the current videoconferencing tool does not offer a reminder option that is connected to your university email account. I sometimes forget about the meeting or when it should take place exactly. Based on these comments, it can be assumed that students found the videoconferencing tool to be mostly a useful solution to maintain their communication and interaction with their supervisors.

5. CONCLUSION This study would provide insights on how teleconferencing related services can empower the current supervision practices through the use of structure and formed dialogues between students and supervisors. It would also contribute to the existing theories on digital learning like transactional distance theory by explaining the association between instructors and students when communicating through a medium that allows active interaction and managing of previous discussions for understanding various learning problems. It is assumed that results from this study would empower the traditional supervision practices by opening the doors for Saudi higher education to improve students’ online engagement with their supervisors. *Corresponding author (A.Nasser Alshahrani) Tel: +966555760117. Email: amer4841@gmail.com

This study would help the Ministry of Higher Education in Saudi Arabia in general and King Saud University in particular to understand the boundaries of teleconferencing services such as videoconferencing to provide the communication-related elements necessary for postgraduate engagement in an online context. It will also serve as a source for explaining how videoconferencing can promote the current supervision practices in the Kingdom, which have always been seen to follow the traditional face-to-face method. The video conferencing method is considered greatly helpful in the wake of the New Coronavirus Covid19 pandemic to reduce the risk of infection in the classroom.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

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Bakker, A. B., Vergel, A. I. S., & Kuntze, J. (2015). Student engagement and performance: A weekly diary study on the role of openness. Motivation and Emotion, 39(1), 49-62. Bitzer, E. M., & Albertyn, R. M. (2011). Alternative approaches to postgraduate supervision: A planning tool to facilitate supervisory processes. South African Journal of Higher Education, 25(5), 874-888. Blau, I., Weiser, O., & Eshet-Alkalai, Y. (2016). Face-to-face versus one-way and two-way videoconferencing: How medium naturalness and personality traits influence achievement and perceived learning? Paper presented at the Information Systems and Technologies (CISTI), 2016 11th Iberian Conference on. Chen, Y.-J., & Willits, F. K. (2007). A path analysis of the concepts in Moore’s theory of transactional distance in a videoconferencing learning environment. International Journal of E-Learning & Distance Education, 13(2), 51-65. Currey, J., Oldland, E., Considine, J., Glanville, D., & Story, I. (2015). Evaluation of postgraduate critical care nursing students’ attitudes to, and engagement with, Team-Based Learning: A descriptive study. Intensive and Critical Care Nursing, 31(1), 19-28. Dann, S. (2008). Applying services marketing principles to postgraduate supervision. Quality Assurance in Education, 16(4), 333-346. Denicolo, P. (2004). Doctoral supervision of colleagues: Peeling off the veneer of satisfaction and competence. Studies in Higher Education, 29(6), 693-707. Drennan, J., & Clarke, M. (2009). Coursework master’s programs: the student’s experience of research and research supervision. Studies in Higher Education, 34(5), 483-500. Fitch, D., Cary, S., & Freese, R. (2016). Facilitating social work role plays in online courses: The use of video conferencing. Advances in Social Work, 17(1), 78-92. Giesbers, B., Rienties, B., Tempelaar, D. T., & Gijselaers, W. (2014). Why increased social presence through web videoconferencing does not automatically lead to improved learning. E-Learning and Digital Media, 11(1), 31-45. Gordon, R. M., Wang, X., & Tune, J. (2015). Comparing psychodynamic teaching, supervision, and psychotherapy over videoconferencing technology with Chinese students. Psychodynamic psychiatry, 43(4), 585-599. Harbon, L., & England, N. (2006). The cultural practice of Research Higher Degree supervision over distance: a case in progress. University of Sydney papers in TESOL, 2009, 87-107. Haynes, F., Mosley, K., & Dewar, J. (2016). 147 Use of videoconferencing to deliver a supervised individual home exercise programme. Journal of Cystic Fibrosis, 15, S89. Hecq, D. (2009). Interactive narrative pedagogy as a heuristic for understanding supervision in practice-led research. New Writing, 6(1), 40-50. Hemer, S. R. (2012). Informality, power and relationships in postgraduate supervision: Supervising PhD candidates over coffee. Higher Education Research & Development, 31(6), 827-839. Horstmanshof, L., & Zimitat, C. (2007). Future time orientation predicts academic engagement among first‐year university students. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 77(3), 703718. Ingham, G., & Fry, J. (2016). A blended supervision model in Australian general practice training. Australian family physician, 45(5), 343. *Corresponding author (A.Nasser Alshahrani) Tel: +966555760117. Email: amer4841@gmail.com

Jones, A. (2011). Seeing the messiness of academic practice: Exploring the work of academics through narrative. International Journal for Academic Development, 16(2), 109-118. Kennepohl, D., Baran, J., Connors, M., Quigley, K., & Currie, R. (2006). Remote access to instrumental analysis for distance education in science. The International Review of Research in Open and Distributed Learning, 6(3). Knipe, D., & Lee, M. (2002). The quality of teaching and learning via videoconferencing. British Journal of Educational Technology, 33(3), 301-311. Könings, K. D., Popa, D., Gerken, M., Giesbers, B., Rienties, B. C., van der Vleuten, C. P., & van Merriënboer, J. J. (2016). Improving supervision for students at a distance: videoconferencing for group meetings. Innovations in Education and Teaching International, 53(4), 388-399. Krause, K. L., & Coates, H. (2008). Students’ engagement in first‐year university. Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education, 33(5), 493-505. Kuh, G. D. (2009). What student affairs professionals need to know about student engagement. Journal of College Student Development, 50(6), 683-706. Lee, A. (2008). How are doctoral students supervised? Concepts of doctoral research supervision. Studies in Higher Education, 33(3), 267-281. Loranc-Paszylk, B. (2016). Incorporating cross-cultural videoconferencing to enhance Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) at the tertiary level. Paper presented at the New Directions in telecollaborative research and practice: selected papers from the second conference on telecollaboration in higher education. McCallin, A., & Nayar, S. (2012). Postgraduate research supervision: A critical review of current practice. Teaching in Higher Education, 17(1), 63-74. McCormack, C. (2004). Tensions between student and institutional conceptions of postgraduate research. Studies in Higher Education, 29(3), 319-334. Neumann, D. L., & Hood, M. (2009). The effects of using a wiki on student engagement and learning of report writing skills in a university statistics course. Australasian Journal of Educational Technology, 25(3), 382-398. O’Neil, K., Krause, J. M., & Douglas, S. (2017). University Supervisor Perceptions of Live Remote Supervision in Physical Education Teacher Education. International Journal of Kinesiology in Higher Education, 1(4), 113-125. Okendu, J. N. (2012). The influence of instructional process and supervision on academic performance of secondary school students of rivers state, Nigeria. Academic Research International, 2(3), 490. Pluut, H., Curşeu, P. L., & Ilies, R. (2015). Social and study related stressors and resources among university entrants: Effects on well-being and academic performance. Learning and Individual Differences, 37, 262-268. Raths, D. (2015). 6 Ways Videoconferencing Is Expanding the Classroom: With Instant Access to International Collaborators, Virtual Field Trips and Courses in Other Districts, Learning Can Happen Anywhere in the World. THE Journal (Technological Horizons In Education), 42(4), 12. Rousmaniere, T., & Frederickson, J. (2016). Remote Live Supervision: Videoconference for OneóWayóMirror Supervision. Using Technology to Enhance Clinical Supervision, 157. Sakurai, Y., Parpala, A., Pyhältö, K., & Lindblom-Ylänne, S. (2016). Engagement in learning: a

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comparison between Asian and European international university students. Compare: A Journal of Comparative and International Education, 46(1), 24-47. Satar, H. M. (2016). Meaning-making in online language learner interactions via desktop videoconferencing. ReCALL, 28(03), 305-325. Sinclair, M. (2004). The pedagogy of good PhD supervision: A national cross-disciplinary investigation of PhD supervision: Department of Education, Science and Training Canberra. Smith, L., & Abouammoh, A. (2013). Higher education in Saudi Arabia: Reforms, challenges and priorities. In Higher Education in Saudi Arabia (pp. 1-12): Springer. Wang,

Y. (2004). Supporting videoconferencing.

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Amer Nasseris Alshahrani is a PhD candidate in Education at the School of Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia. He is interested in Education Collaboration, Long Distance Education, Information Technology-based Learning.

Professor Dr.Irfan Naufal Umar is Professor in Education at Universiti Sains Malaysia. He got his Bachelor's degree in Chemistry from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. He obtained his PhD in Education, and his Master of Education in Instructional Design and Technology from the University of Pittsburg, USA. He is interested in Teaching and Learning, Teacher Training, Learning Environments. Dr.Mariam Mohammed is a Senior Lecturer at Centre for Instructional Technology Practices and Multimedia, Universiti Sains Malaysia. She obtained her PhD of Education in 2012, and her Master in Computer Based Learning and Training in 2007, and her Bachelor in Information Technology in Organization from the University of Southampton, United Kingdom.

*Corresponding author (A.Nasser Alshahrani) Tel: +966555760117. Email: amer4841@gmail.com

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07D

FACTORS AFFECTING THE HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY PATTERN IN RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN 1

Maria Iftikhar , Muhammad Asim Yasin , Rafaqet Ali , Samiullah , 1 1 Muhammad Imran Khan , Nazish Iftikhar 1

Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Multan Road, Vehari, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received Received in revised form Accepted 23 January 2020 Available online 03 February 2020

This study has been designed to examine the household characteristics that affect the household dietary diversity pattern in rural areas of Southern Punjab, Pakistan. Household Dietary Diversity Pattern (HDDP) indicates the economic ability of a household to access a variety of foods. Apparently, HDDP is simple but affected by many collaborative factors. HDDP is multidimensional in nature. It depends on four important components: availability, stability, accessibility, and utilization. So, there are many socio-economic characteristics that can affect HDDP. Primary data was collected from 300 rural households. A detailed questionnaire was developed by following the guidelines of FAO for seeking information from the respondents. The ordered logistic regression was used for data analysis. The results of this study indicate that estimated coefficients of education, income, land size and livestock affect positively household dietary diversity score. The estimated coefficient of the age of household head, family size of household and time to reach the main market affect negatively household dietary diversity score. The study also suggested important policy recommendations to improve the dietary diversity score of rural households.

Keywords:

Household dietary diversity score (HDDS); HDDP; Household characteristics; Ordered logistic regression.

Disciplinary: Multidisciplinary (Economic and Management Science, Nutrition Science) 2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Household Dietary Diversity Pattern (HDDP) shows the summary of food that is utilized by people in case of comprising good nutrients or not (FAO, 2014). It is a qualitative degree of food *Corresponding author (M. Asim Yasin). Email: dr.asim@ciitvehari.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.124

intake that gives a household approach to a variety of foods (FAO, 2011). So, HDDP refers to how people decide on what to eat. That varies from person to person and affected by ability and tradition. Apparently, HDDP is simple but it is affected by many collaborative factors such as why and who eats what, when, and where. Household dietary diversity pattern is multidimensional in nature. It means reliable, straightforward access to get food for active and healthy living (Coleman-Jensen et al., 2012). HDDP depends on four important components: availability, stability, accessibility, and utilization. Food availability indicates that food is easily available at home for every member of the household. Access to food security shows that each family member gets easy access to food. Accessibility of food means households have the ability to purchase food according to his or her will. The utilization of food means food having all the necessary nutrients in it (Doppler, 2002). Many studies showed that an increase in HDDP is associated with socioeconomic status and household food security (Hoddinot & Yohannes, 2002; Hatloy et al., 2000). Pakistan is a developing country, where, food security is a problem so, is the household dietary diversity pattern. Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s food security & household dietary diversity has been under threat during the last few decades due to limited food access. Consumption disparity is greater in rural areas of Pakistan than in urban areas (Hussain & Akram, 2008). So, in rural areas, dietary diversity is hardly available to all. Food is a basic necessity of human life that provides us the strength to move actively and develop new cells. Good diets protect the body from weakness, illness, and infection. Food is an important component for human survival that positively contributes to human resources development. Nutrition standards should be considered at both individual and national levels (Firdaus & Cahyono, 2017). Better food security in a country indicates a higher level of diversified food intake items in the daily life of households supported by social, economic, culture and local resources (Parappurathu et al., 2015; Taruvinga et al., 2013; Thorne-Lyman et al., 2009). HDDP is dynamically affected by circumstances & experience initiation in early life & continuing all over the life course. Household dietary diversity score is also affected by cultural principles & personal, constrained by resources. Household structure along with a single head of household versus marital heads of household, the existence of adolescence, the health of household component and the performance of each household component in food diversity all affect the householdâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capability to be food secure and have an approach to a healthy diet (Eertmans et al., 2001; Evans et al., 2015; Sobal et al., 2014; Tuorila, 2007). In spite of the fact that liking for certain food does not completely determine household dietary diversity score. Household preferences toward a particular food are also affected by situation, social culture and vary from person to person. The question of what and why we make a choice of food is always more important than the nutritional value (Yasin, 2000; Koster, 2009; Mela, 2001; Skinner et al., 2002). So, this study is designed to explore the factors affecting the dietary diversity of people.

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS The present study is based upon primary data collected from District Vehari of Southern Punjab. A well-structured questionnaire was prepared by following the guidelines of FAO for seeking information from the respondents. According to the recommendation of FAO (2011), the study used the last 24 hours recall data of the householdâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s food intake. Household characteristics

Maria Iftikhar, Muhammad Asim Yasin, Rafaqet Ali, Samiullah, Muhammad Imran Khan, Nazish Iftikhar

like age, income, education, family size, and numbers of livestock, agriculture land holding, distance from main markets and distance from the main city were also collected.

2.1 SAMPLING TECHNIQUES AND SAMPLE SIZE The study employed a multistage sampling technique. At the first stage, Tehsil Vehari was selected for data collection. In the second stage, ten villages were selected randomly from rural areas. In the third stage, 30 respondents were selected randomly from each village. So, the total sample size was 300 respondents.

2.2 DATA COLLECTION Data on the household dietary diversity score was collected by the interviewer asking a series of questions. These questions were asked by those who were responsible for food preparation at home. Outside consumption of foods not prepared at home, were not included in this study.

2.3 AGGREGATION OF 12 FOOD GROUPS TO CREATE HDDP To measure the HDDP, FAO has aggregated food items into twelve food groups. The value of this household dietary diversity pattern score (HDDS) ranges from 0-12, see Table 1. Table 1: Aggregation of 12 food groups to create HDDS. Question No. Food Group Yes=1, No=0 1 Cereals if yes = one otherwise = zero 2 White tubers and roots if yes = one otherwise = zero 3 Vegetables if yes = one otherwise = zero 4 Fruits if yes = one otherwise = zero 5 Meat if yes = one otherwise = zero 6 Eggs if yes = one otherwise = zero 7 Fish and other seafood if yes = one otherwise = zero 8 Legumes, nuts, and seeds if yes = one otherwise = zero 9 Milk and milk products if yes = one otherwise = zero 10 Oils and fats if yes = one otherwise = zero 11 Sweets if yes = one otherwise = zero 12 Spices, condiments, and beverages if yes = one otherwise = zero

2.4 HDDP The formula of HDDP is HDDP = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;=1 đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(1),

where đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = indicates the score of ith food item and n = 12 food groups. HDDP score ranges from 0-12.

2.5 HDDS CLASSIFICATION

According to the FAO (2010), there are three levels of dietary diversity score, see Table 2. Table 2: HDDS classification. HDDS Classification 0-3 Lower range lies between (0 to 3) 4-5 Medium range lies between (4 to 5) 6-12 Higher range lies between (6 to 12) So, ordered logistic regression will be appropriate for analysis.

*Corresponding author (M. Asim Yasin). Email: dr.asim@ciitvehari.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.124

2.6 ECONOMETRIC MODEL Household characteristics have been explained by descriptive statistics. This study used the ordered logistic regression method for data analysis because the nature of this data is most suitable to use the ordered logistic regression method (Arene & Anyaeji, 2010; Felker-kantor & Wood, 2012). The general form of an ordered logit regression model

Yi = B1 X i1 + B2 X i 2 + B3 X i 3 + .....Bk X ik + Âľ (2), Where đ?&#x2018;&#x152;đ?&#x2018;&#x152;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = dependent variable đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = independent variable Âľ= error term i = observation 1,â&#x20AC;Śâ&#x20AC;Śk Further, we assumed that our n regressors in j â&#x20AC;&#x201C;ordered alternatives or in odd ratio form.

(3) where . đ?&#x2018;&#x152;đ?&#x2018;&#x152;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; that is our categories and in this study, our categories are three. When we take observation i with j categories (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;) ever category is greater than the previous category and show a better level. So, one is less than two and similarly, two is greater than one. These categories are separated by cutoff or threshold parameters. In Equation (3), the intercept term đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x2C6;&#x2019;1 is less or smaller than đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; . So, intercept đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; is larger than đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x2C6;&#x2019;1 .

In the ordered logistic model, only the intercept (cutoff) terms are different but the slope coefficients of independent variables are the same in each category. So, the ordered logit model is the same as the proportional odds model. Stata version 14.1 was used for the analysis of data.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1 SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF HOUSEHOLDS Table 3 describes the socioeconomic characteristics and the mean score of HDDP for rural households. It presents all the variables that are used in the estimation. The mean value of the age of household head is 48.58, with the minimum value of household head age 35 and maximum value 65. The mean value of household size is 6.11, while the minimum value of household size is 2 and the maximum value is 13. The mean value of education of household head is 5.89, while the minimum value of education of household head is 0 and the

Maria Iftikhar, Muhammad Asim Yasin, Rafaqet Ali, Samiullah, Muhammad Imran Khan, Nazish Iftikhar

maximum is 14. The mean value of income of the household is 14406.67, while the minimum value of income of household head is 5000 and the maximum value is 43000. The mean value of time to reach the main market is 11.39, while the minimum value of household time to reach the main market is 1 and the maximum value is 35. Similarly, if we see the statistic of the size of landholding and the number of livestock the mean values are 3.26 acres and 3.83 animals respectively. While the minimum value of the size of landholding and the number of livestock are 1.5 and 0, and the maximum values of both are 11.5 and 40 respectively. The mean value of household dietary diversity score (HDDS) is 3.77, while the minimum value of the household dietary diversity score is 1 and the maximum value is 9. The mean value of the dependent variable y (order) is 1.57. While the minimum value is 1 and the maximum value is 3. Table 3: Socioeconomic characteristics of households. Variable Age (Years) Size of household (Number of household size members) Education (Number of schooling years) Income (In Pakistani Rupees) Time to reach main market (Minutes) Land size (Acres) Livestock (Numbers) HDDS Y (order)

Mean 48.58 6.11 5.89 14406.67 11.39 3.26 3.83 3.77 1.57

SD 7.45 2.03 4.50 8532.26 11.16 2.40 7.98 1.65 0.63

Min 35 2 0 5000 1 1.5 0 1 1

Max 65 13 14 43000 35 11.5 40 9 3

3.2 HDDS INFORMATION OF HOUSEHOLDS Household dietary diversity score information for a rural household is presented in table 4. In rural areas, lower dietary diversity score is 1 which is 3.33 percent and higher dietary diversity score is 9 which is 2.00 percent. The reason behind this issue is that the rural household diet is usually based on starchy staples and cereals. HDDS is positively correlated with a higher intake of diversified food items and other micro and macronutrients. But in rural areas, people do not have enough resources to consume diverse food items in daily diets (Ruel, 2003). Table 4: HDDS of households HDDS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Frequency 10 72 68 34 86 14 10 0 6 0 0 0 300

Percentage 3.33 24.00 22.67 11.33 28.67 4.67 3.33 0 2.00 0 0 0 100.00

3.3 HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY SCORE INFORMATION IN ORDER CATEGORY In our data analysis, HDDS is divided into three categories or groups low, medium and high (Nithya, 2018). HDDS order information for rural households is presented in Table 5. *Corresponding author (M. Asim Yasin). Email: dr.asim@ciitvehari.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.124

Table 5: HDDS order for rural households Y order category 1= (0-3) 2= (4-5) 3= (6-12) Total

Frequency 150 128 22 300

Percentage 50.00 42.67 7.33 100.00

Table 5 indicates the household dietary diversity score order information on rural households. In rural areas the lower order category is one which is 50 percent, medium order category is 42 percent and the higher-order category is only 7.33 percent.

3.4 ESTIMATION OF ORDERED LOGISTIC REGRESSION Various factors are responsible for household dietary diversity score. Regression results for household characteristics and dietary diversity patterns are presented in Table 6. The chi-square test value is 220.87 and the p-value is <0.001 highly significant at the 1 percent level of significance. It shows that our model is statistically significant. So, we reject the null hypothesis, it means that the final model is fit. In other words, our model as a whole is statistically significant, as compared to the null model with no predictors. This study employed the Breusch-Pagan test to check the heteroscedasticity in the data. Thus, we set the null hypothesis that confirms constant variance. The chi-square test value is 0.65 and the p-value is greater than 0.05. It shows that that in rural data heteroscedasticity does not exist. So, the variance of the disturbance term is homoscedastic in the data. The explanatory variables age of household head, size, education, size of landholding and number of livestock are found significant while the household head monthly income and time to reach the main market are found insignificant. The R2 is 0.82, that 82 percent change in the dependent variable (y ordered) is explained by the independent variables selected in the model and the remaining 18 percent change due to the other factors. This value of the pseudo- R2 suggests a reasonable efficiency of the model. The regression result indicates that the age of the respondent has a negative coefficient and significant at a level of 5 percent. Simply, we can say that one unit increase in variable X1 (age of household head), would expect a 0.23 decrease in ordered log-odds of being in a higher category, given that all of the other variables in the model are held constant. Kumar et al. (2016) and Ogundari (2017) have reported the same result for rural household head age. The family size of the household has a negative coefficient and significant at a level of 5 percent. One unit increase in variable X2 (size of household) will bring a 0.71 unit decrease in ordered log-odds of being in the higher category. Beyene and Muche (2010) and Mbwana (2016) have reported the same results for rural household size. The education of the household head has a negative coefficient in our sample size. One unit increase in variable X3 (education of household head), would expect a 0.54 increase in the log-odds of being at a higher level of Y order, given that all of the other variables in the model are held constant and it is significant at 1 percent. Mallick and Rafi (2010), Astemir (2014), Firdaus and Cahyono (2017) and Parappurathu (2015) reported the same results for rural household head education. The income of the household head has positive coefficients in our sample size, but it is insignificant. The result of rural household head income is in line with Astemir (2014). Time to reach the main market has a negative coefficient, but it is insignificant. Land size in our rural sample size affects positively and it is statistically significant at 10 percent confidence. So, One unit

Maria Iftikhar, Muhammad Asim Yasin, Rafaqet Ali, Samiullah, Muhammad Imran Khan, Nazish Iftikhar

increase in the variable X6 (size of landholding), would expect a 0.48 increase in the log-odds of being at a higher level of Y order. The results of the rural size of landholding are in line with Beyene and Muche (2010), Jones et al. (2014), Mallick and Rafi (2010) and Mbwana (2016). Livestock in our rural sample size affects positively. One unit increase in X7 will bring a 0.43 unit increase in ordered log-odds of being in a higher category, and it is significant at 5 percent. Beyene and Muche (2010) and Lumole (2013) reported the same result for rural household numbers of livestock. Table 6: Results of ordered logistic regression.

Notes:*

Variables Coefficient Std. Err. P-value Household head age -0.23 0.10 0.018** Size of household -0.71 0.28 0.011** Education 0.54 0.18 0.003*** Income 0.00004 0.0001 0.750 Time to reach main market -0.08 0.06 0.201 Size of land holding 0.48 0.29 0.096* Number of livestock 0.43 0.21 0.039** Number of observation 150 LR chi2(7) 220.87 P value <0.001*** Log-likelihood -24.80 Pseudo R2 0.82 Breusch-Pagan test Chi- square (1) 2.41 P value 0.121 Level of significance at 10%, ** Level of significance at 5%, *** Level of significance at 1%.

4. CONCLUSION In this study, the relationship between rural household characteristics and dietary diversity score (DDS) is investigated by using the ordered logistic regression model (OLRM). HDDS shows the summary of food that is utilized by people in case of comprising good nutrients or not. It is a qualitative degree of food intake that gives a household approach to a variety of food. So, HDDS refers to how people decide on what to eat. That varies from person to person and affected by a number of factors. The final results of OLRM indicate that the household dietary diversity score of rural areas is affected by various socioeconomic factors such as age, size of households, education, the income of the household head, time to reach the main market, size of land holding, and numbers of livestock. The findings of this study concluded that these socioeconomic characteristics not only affect the household dietary diversity score but also influence the status of the rural household. Based on these results, the study recommends some important policy implications that will have a significant effect on rural household dietary diversity score. The government should launch food diversification programs in rural areas to increase household dietary diversity score. The government should implement such policies to increase and improve the education level of rural people, which would ultimately increase the income level of people. Improvement in infrastructure will mak4e easy access to the market. The government should give subsidies to increase the number of livestock of rural people who have a positive effect on food diversity. Investment programs should be designed focusing on rural areas which would ultimately increase household income and easy access to food. *Corresponding author (M. Asim Yasin). Email: dr.asim@ciitvehari.edu.pk ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.124

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

6. REFERENCES Arene, C. J., Anyaeji, C. (2010). Determinants of food security among households in Nsukka Metropolis of Enugu, Nigeria. Pakistan J. Social science, 30(1), 9-16. Astemir, A. Y. (2014). Determinants of food security in rural farm households in Ethiopia (Doctoral dissertation, Masterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Thesis). Institute of Social Studies, Hague, Netherlands. Beyene, F., & Muche, M. (2010). Determinants of food security among rural households of Central Ethiopia: An empirical analysis. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 49(4), 299. Coleman-Jensen, A., Nord, M., Andrews, M., & Carlson, S. (2012). Household food security in the United States. ERR-141. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, USA. Doppler, W. (2002). Farming and rural systems approach. Published Lecturing Material, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany. Eertmans, A., Baeyens, F., & Van Den Bergh, O. (2001). Food likes and their relative importance in human eating behavior: Review and preliminary suggestions for health promotion. Health Education Research, 16(4), 443-456. Evans, A., Banks, K., Jennings, R., Nehme, E., Nemec, C., Sharma, S., ... & Yaroch, A. (2015). Increasing access to healthful foods: A qualitative study with residents of low-income communities. International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 12(1), S1-S5. FAO. (2011). Guidelines for measuring household and individual dietary diversity. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO. (2014). The state of food insecurity in the world: Strengthening the enabling environment for food security and nutrition. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Felker-Kantor, Erica, Wood, Charles, H. (2012). Female-headed households and food insecurity in Brazil. Food Security, 4 (4), 607-617. Firdaus, N., & Cahyono, B. D. (2017). How food consumption pattern and dietary diversity influence food security: Evidence from Di YOGYAKARTA and East Nusa Tenggara. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 25(1), 27-38. Hatloy, A., Hallund, J., Diarra, M.M. & Oshaug, A. (2000). Food variety, socioeconomic status and nutritional status in urban and rural areas in Koutiala (Mali). Public Health Nutrition, 3(1), 57-65. Hussain, Z. & Akram, W. (2008). Persistent food insecurity from policy failures in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 47(4), 817-834. Jones, A. D., Shrinivas, A., & Bezner-Kerr, R. (2014). Farm production diversity is associated with greater household dietary diversity in Malawi: Findings from nationally representative data. Food Policy, 46(1), 1-12. Kumar, A., Saroj, S., Singh, R. K. P., & Jee, S. (2016). Agricultural diversity, dietary diversity and nutritional intake: An evidence on inter-linkages from village level studies in Eastern India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 29(conf), 15-29. Lumole, Z. S. (2013). Household dietary diversity and nutritional status of children and women of reproductive age in Madizini township and its hinterland villages (Doctoral dissertation). The Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania. Mallick, D., & Rafi, M. (2010). Are female-headed households more food insecure? Evidence from Bangladesh. World Development, 38(4), 593-605.

Maria Iftikhar, Muhammad Asim Yasin, Rafaqet Ali, Samiullah, Muhammad Imran Khan, Nazish Iftikhar

Mbwana, H. A., Kinabo, J., Lambert, C., & Biesalski, H. K. (2016). Determinants of household dietary practices in rural Tanzania: Implications for nutrition interventions. Cogent Food & Agriculture, 2(1), 1-13. Mela, D. J. (2001). Determinants of food choice: Relationships with obesity and weight control. Obesity, 9(S11), 249S-255S. Ogundari, K. (2017). Categorizing households into different food security states in Nigeria: The socio-economic and demographic determinants. Agricultural and Food Economics, 5(8), 1-20. Parappurathu, S., Kumar, A., Bantilan, M. C. S., & Joshi, P. K. (2015). Food consumption patterns and dietary diversity in eastern India: Evidence from village level studies (VLS). Food Security, 7(5), 1031-1042. Ruel, M. T. (2003). Is dietary diversity an indicator of food security or dietary quality? A review of measurement issues and research needs. Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 24(2), 231-232. Skinner, J. D., Carruth, B. R., Bounds, W., & Ziegler, P. J. (2002). Children's food preferences: A longitudinal analysis. Journal of the American Dietetic Association, 102(11), 1638-1647. Sobal, J., Bisogni, C. A., & Jastran, M. (2014). Food choice is multifaceted, contextual, dynamic, multilevel, integrated, and diverse. Mind, Brain, and Education, 8(1), 6-12. Thorne-Lyman, A. L., Valpiani, N., Sun, K., Semba, R. D., Klotz, C. L., Kraemer, K., ... & Bloem, M. W. (2009). Household dietary diversity and food expenditures are closely linked in rural Bangladesh, increasing the risk of malnutrition due to the financial crisis–3. The Journal of Nutrition, 140(1), 182S-188S. Tuorila, H. (2007). Sensory perception as a basis of food acceptance and consumption. Consumer-Led Food Product Development, 10(1), 34-65. Yasin, M.A (2000). An investigation into the food security situation in rain-fed areas of district Rawalpindi. M.Sc. (Hons.) Thesis (Unpublished), Department of Agricultural Economics. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan. Maria Iftikhar has completed her MS in Economics from Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus.

Dr. Muhammad Asim Yasin is an Assistant Professor at Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. He holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.

Dr. Rafaqet Ali has been serving as an Assistant Professor at COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Pakistan since 2014. He did PhD in Economics, Gomal University, Pakistan. His research is in the fields of Economics, Financial Economicsl.

Samiullah earned his M Phil in Public Policy from National Defense University, Islamabad, Pakistan. Currently, he is serving as Lecturer in the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus.

Dr. Muhammad Imran Khan is an Assistant Professor at Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus. He holds a Ph.D. in Marketing from Qurtuba University Peshawar. His researches are Marketing, E-marketing, Social Media, Advertising, Consumer Behavior and Marketing Research.

Trademarks Disclaimer: All product names including trademarks™ or registered® trademarks mentioned in this article are the property of their respective owners, using for identification and educational purposes only. The use of them does not imply any endorsement or affiliation. *Corresponding author (M. Asim Yasin). Email: dr.asim@ciitvehari.edu.pk ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07D http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07D.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.124

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07E

, Mairaj Salim

Department of Management Information System, Faculty of Economics and Administration, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA. 2 Department of Marketing, School of Business Studies, Shobhit University, INDIA. ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 08 February 2019 Received in revised form 29 November 2019 Accepted 20 December 2019 Available online 03 February 2020

This research paper examines the role of the e-commerce service quality on Saudi airlines using a Webqual model. The Webqual model has been widely used to measure the perception of service quality. The study sample, with 317 respondents, uses a Likert scale and a questionnaire with 32 items on service quality about Saudi Arabian Airlines. Data on gender, age, income, education, Alfursan Saudi Airline members and jobs of respondents were used in the correlation of the study. To identify and analyze the significant differences of opinion between and within the groups, the popular statistical t-test, and ANOVA test were applied by using SPSS software highlighting more detailed study findings. The analysis of 317 respondents shows that gender, age, income, job education group and Alfursan members are not highly satisfied with the website service quality of Saudi Airlines. The analysis also shows the hypothesis is accepted in all respondents groups.

Keywords:

Eservice quality; Online royalty; Webqual model; eSatisfaction; ANOVA; Web design and Booking.

1. INTRODUCTION Since the Internet has become the main activity of commercial business focusing on to reach customers through world wide web. Loiacono (2000) evolve 12 core dimensions of website quality, they are: A. information, B. interactivity, C. trust, D. responsiveness, E. design, F. intuitiveness, G. visual appeal, H. innovativeness, I. website flow, J. integrated, K. business processes, L.viable substitute. Webqual has been used to measure business school sites, Internet bookstores etc, The *Corresponding author (Moteb A. Al-Bugami). Email: albugamimoteb@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07E http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.125

model of Webqual allows to compare organization website service quality. Website is important for marketing communication mix (Berthon et al., 1996). Goodhue (1995) found website quality instrument is important to calculate and point out quality aspects that make website useful to customers. Since studies on website service quality are very few for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), this study seeks to determine user perceptions of website service quality offered by Saudi airlines.

2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE E-service research is a popular research (Sylvie& Ina, 2010). Hedvall and Paltschik (1989), Kettinger and Lee (1997), Parasuraman et al. (1988) evaluated the traditional brick-and-mortar the main service quality dimensions. (Ballantine, 2005; Kim and Stoel, 2005; Yen, 2005) identify service quality relationship with customer satisfaction online dimensions (Ducoffe, 1995; Eighmey, 1997, Raza et al., 2019) reflects expectations of web consumersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; that information should be delivered in a good manner. The key determinant of service quality online success primarily based on two reasons (Zeithaml et al, 2000): First, customer intention and satisfaction depends on the online service quality for future shopping. Second, it is difficult to attract potential customers because what they need in service quality is critical. (Cai & Jun, 2003). The design of website of Airlines is to provide a one-stop service for information and booking flights online (Chu, 2001). To facilitate customers airlines uses role of e-commerce transactions. to reduce the cost of the ticket (Arielyet al. 2000) which gives many number of customers a reason to buy online (Vanitha et al. 1999). The website of an airline should be designed in way that should contain a lot of relevant information which customer to take a decision Bamford & Xystouri (2005) and Rhoades & Many studies prevails that service quality linked profitability(Bates, Bates & Johnston, 2003) and also quality of services in service industry. The success of website depends on certain criteriaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s like reliability, user friendly, correct information, privacy and security of transaction if these elements are not good organization loses customers (Bressolles, 2006). Cristobal (2007) found scale to measure service quality of which five dimensions are from e-service quality model they are web site, assurance, information provision, special analysis and customer service. According to Lee and Lin (2005) the layout of a website service quality promotes customers According to. Kassim and Abdullah (2010) found that there is a relationships between customers and dimensions of e-service quality, trust and satisfaction. Further Loiacono et al. (2002) results show that e-trust. positively effect customer satisfaction and developed service quality Webqual scale.

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The objective of this study is to measure the role of e-commerce service quality for Saudi airlines using the Webqual model. A structured questionnaire (Table 1) was taken to collect data for our research based on a five-point Likert scale. Data for this study was gathered from respondents using the website of Saudi Airlines. The questionnaire was distributed to users in different cities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during May-July 2018. Total of 317 useable questionnaires were returned, considered satisfactory for subsequent analysis.

Moteb Ayesh Al-Bugami, Mairaj Salim

Table 1: Questionnaire on Website Service Quality 1.

It’s easy to use the internet for searching for information, interact fast, navigate easy, information is in appropriate format, information is reliable, information is relevant, information assist to make decision up to date, information detail is appropriate, 2. It Provides a wide range of information about airline services, acknowledged my previous visits, always recommend the website to my relatives, friends, colleagues, etc. meets my needs online 3. The design of the site exhibits creativity and uniqueness and the logo is memorable and feel confident about services promised online. 4. It’s easy to make a ticket reservation, cancel reservation and refund online, Options for payments with safe transactions. 5. It’s easy to get a boarding pass online 6. It’s easy to become an Alfursan Saudi airlines member, access Alfursan Saudi airlines reward miles online 7. The service delivery is extremely efficient and accurate as promised 8. I got a good impression of the website through media ads 9. I read many good comments from other customers regarding the website 10. I feel happy to reuse the website for my future booking 11. My experience with the website was always great

3.1 HYPOTHESIS The hypothesis statement is given as •

H0: Significant difference does not exist for the quality of service provided by e-commerce.

•

H1: Significant difference exists between the quality of service by e-commerce.

Data were entered into SPSS. Thereafter the overall mean of various scores was taken using SPSS. To see a statistical significant difference, the popular Independent Samples t-tests and ANOVA were applied. If the p-value is greater than 0.05, this is to accept the Null Hypothesis (H0). We tested it at a significance level of 5% in all cases. The descriptive analysis of users includes Gender, Age, Income, Education, Frequent Flyer Member, and Job Group.

4. RESULT 4.1 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS FOR GENDER GROUP Table 2 shows 178 male respondents with a mean value of 3.53 and 139 female respondents with a mean value of 3.61. The mean values of both male and female respondents show they are not highly satisfied with the website service quality of Saudi Airlines. To test the significance of the difference between male and female respondents, we applied an independent t-test, and the value of p=.237 shows no significant differences of opinion between gender respondents. Hypothesis Ho is supported. Table 2: Descriptive Statistics for Gender Groups. Customer Gender

Mean

Std. Error Mean

Male Female

178 139

3.53 3.61

.555 .515

.041 .043

4.2 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS FOR DIFFERENT AGE GROUP Table 3 shows the perception of 317 respondents of different age groups, where for 18 respondents less than 20 years old the mean value is 3.81, for 118 respondents from 20-to-30 years *Corresponding author (Moteb A. Al-Bugami). Email: albugamimoteb@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07E http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.125

old the mean value is 3.51, for 124 respondents from 31-to-40 the mean value is 3.59, for 48 respondents from 41-to-50 the mean value is 3.56, for eight respondents from 51-to-60 the mean value is 3.33 and for one respondent above age 60 the mean value is 4.09. Thus none of the respondents below age 60 are highly satisfied, but the one above age 60 is highly satisfied. To test the significance of the difference among age groups and within age groups, we applied ANOVA and the value of p=.194 shows no significant difference of opinion between different age groups toward the website service quality of Saudi Airlines. Hypothesis Ho is supported. Table 3: Descriptive Statistics for Different Age Groups Age

Mean

Std. Error

<20 20>30 31>40 41>50 51>60 Above 60 Total

18 118 124 48 8 1 317

3.81 3.51 3.59 3.56 3.33 4.09 3.56

.526 .587 .514 .479 .393 . .539

.124 .054 .046 .069 .139 . .030

95% Confidence Interval for Mean Lower Bound 3.54 3.41 3.49 3.42 3.00 . 3.50

Upper Bound Minimum Maximum 4.07 3.62 3.68 3.70 3.66 . 3.62

2.97 1.94 1.91 2.44 2.81 4.09 1.91

4.59 4.75 4.69 4.66 4.19 4.09 4.75

4.3 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS FOR DIFFERENT JOB GROUPS The perception of 317 respondents from different job groups is shown in Table 4, where 165 respondents who are government employees show a mean value of 3.51, 92 respondents with private-sector jobs show a mean value of 3.54, 11 respondents with their businesses have a mean value of 3.58, 49 respondents in the â&#x20AC;&#x153;otherâ&#x20AC;? category have a mean value of 3.77 and the total mean value of all 317 respondents is 3.56. No respondents are highly satisfied. To test the significance of the difference among age groups and within job groups, we applied ANOVA and the value of p=.025 shows there is a significant difference of opinion between different job groups of respondents toward the website service quality. Hypothesis Ho is supported. Table 4: Descriptive Statistics for Different Job Groups Job

Mean

Std. Error

Government Private own business Others Total

165 92 11 49 317

3.51 3.54 3.58 3.77 3.56

.591 .451 .614 .440 .539

.046 .047 .185 .062 .030

95% Confidence Interval for Mean Lower Bound

Upper Bound

3.42 3.45 3.17 3.65 3.50

3.60 3.63 4.00 3.90 3.62

Minimum Maximum 1.91 2.44 2.41 2.97 1.91

4.75 4.66 4.41 4.59 4.75

4.4 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR DIFFERENT INCOME GROUP Table 5 shows the mean results of 317 respondents of different income groups, where 182 respondents with income of less than 10000 have a mean value of 3.57, 114 respondents with income from 10000 to 20000 have a mean value of 3.60, 21 respondents with incomes above 20000 have a mean value of 3.33 and the total mean value of 3.56 shows that respondents with different income are also not highly satisfied. To test the significance of the difference between different income group respondents we applied ANOVA and the value of p=.194 shows no significant difference of opinion is there between any of the income groups toward website service quality. Hypothesis Ho is supported.

Moteb Ayesh Al-Bugami, Mairaj Salim

Table 5: Descriptive Statistics for Different Income Groups Income < 10000 10000>20000 Over 20000 Total

Mean

Std. Error

182 114 21 317

3.57 3.60 3.33 3.56

.551 .517 .433 .539

.041 .048 .094 .030

95% Confidence Interval for Mean Lower Bound

Upper Bound

3.48 3.51 3.13 3.50

3.65 3.70 3.53 3.62

Minimum Maximum 1.94 1.91 2.78 1.91

4.75 4.69 4.38 4.75

4.5 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS FOR DIFFERENT EDUCATION GROUPS Table 6 shows mean results for 317 respondents of different education groups, where 54 respondents representing high school graduates have a mean value 3.40, 152 respondents with bachelors degrees have a mean value of 3.58, 96 respondents with post-graduate education have a mean value of 3.61, 15 respondents in the “other” category have a mean value of 3.58 and the total mean value of 317 respondents with different education is 3.56. None are highly satisfied. To test the significance of the difference among different education group respondents we applied ANOVA and the value of p=.117 shows no significant difference of opinion between different education groups of respondents towards the website service quality of Saudi Airlines. Hypothesis Ho is supported. Table 6: Descriptive Statistics for Different Education Groups. Education

Mean

Std. Error

High school Bachelor’s degree Post graduate Others Total

54 152 96 15 317

3.40 3.58 3.61 3.58 3.56

.720 .470 .504 .597 .539

.098 .038 .051 .154 .030

95% Confidence Interval for Mean Lower Bound

Upper Bound

3.21 3.51 3.51 3.25 3.50

3.60 3.66 3.71 3.92 3.62

Minimum Maximum 1.91 2.41 2.44 2.63 1.91

4.75 4.63 4.69 4.41 4.75

4.6 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS FOR ALFURSAN MEMBERS GROUP Table 7 shows that the mean value of 138 respondents who are a member of Alfursan is 3.42 and the 179 respondents who are not a member of Alfursan have a mean value of 3.67. Neither members nor non-members are highly satisfied. To test the significance of the difference among the respondents and within respondents, we applied ANOVA and the value of p=.000 shows there a significant difference of opinion between respondents who are members and those who are not members toward the website service quality of Saudi Airlines. Hypothesis Ho is supported. Table 7: Descriptive Statistics for Alfursan* Members Group. Membership

Mean

SD Std. Error

95% Confidence Interval for Mean Lower Bound

Upper Bound

Minimum Maximum

Yes 138 3.42 .565 .048 3.330 3.520 1.94 4.63 No 179 3.67 .491 .036 3.604 3.749 1.91 4.75 Total 317 3.56 .539 .030 3.507 3.626 1.91 4.75 *Note: Saudi Airlines Offers Alfursan membership program that rewards you with miles and other benefits (saudiairlines.com)

*Corresponding author (Moteb A. Al-Bugami). Email: albugamimoteb@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07E http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07E.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.125

5. CONCLUSION Respondents do not fully agree that the website service quality of Saudi Airlines was highly satisfactory in terms of •

searching for information, fast interaction, navigation, appearance, appropriate information, creativity, and uniqueness.

•

making ticket reservations online, canceling ticket reservations online, refunding tickets online, getting boarding passes online, becoming an Alfursan member online, availing themselves of Alfursan reward miles online, options for payments, or having requests answered online,

•

transaction safety, a wide range of information on airline services, assistance in making up-to-date decisions

•

information as reliable, relevant, acknowledging a previous visit, reusing the website for future bookings and the last overall experience with the website being great.

Therefore we conclude there is a gap between the perception and expectation of services provided by the e-commerce website of Saudi Airlines which needs to be to be filled.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

7. REFERENCES: Ariely, D. 2000. Controlling the information flow: Effects on consumers' decision making and preferences. Journal of Consumer Research, 27(2), 233-248. Ballantine, P. (2005), “Effects of interactivity and product information on consumer satisfaction in an online retail setting”, International Journal of Retail & Distribution, 33(6/7), 461-71. Bamford, D. & Xystouri, T. 2005. A case study of service failure and recovery within an international airline. Managing Service Quality, 15(3): 306-322. Berthon, P.R., Leyland, L.F., and Watson, R.T. "Re-surfing the web: research perspectives on marketing communication and buyer behavior on the W3," Academy of Marketing Science, 1996. Bressolles, G. 2006. Electronic service quality: NetQual – Proposition of a measurement scale to commercial websites and moderating effects. Research and Applications in Marketing, 21(3): 19-45. Cai, S. & Jun, M. 2003. Internet users perceptions of online service quality: A comparison of online buyers and information searchers. Managing Service Quality, 13(6): 504-519. Chu, R. 2001. What online Hong Kong travelers look for airline/travel websites? International Journal of Hospitality Management, 20(1): 95-100. Cristobal, E., Flavian, C. and Guinaliu, M. (2007). Perceived eservice quality: Measurement validity and effects on consumer satisfaction and website loyalty. Managing Service Quality, 17(3), 317-340. Ducoffe, R. (1995). How consumers assess the value of advertising. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising. 17(1), 1-18. Eighmey, J. (1997). Profiling user responses to commercial Websites. Journal of Advertising Research (37:3), 59-66.

Moteb Ayesh Al-Bugami, Mairaj Salim

Goodhue, D.L., Loiacono E. T. (2002). Randomizing survey question order vs. grouping questions by construct: an empirical test of the impact on apparent reliabilities and links to related constructs.. Proceedings of the thirty-fifth Hawaii International Conference on Systems Sciences (HICSS35),. Hedvall, M. and Paltschik, M. (1989), “An investigation in and the generation of service quality concepts”, in Avlonitis, G., Papavasiliou, K. and Kouremenos, A.G. (Eds), Marketing Thought and Practices in the 1990s, European Marketing Academy, Athens, 473-83. Kassim, N. and N. Abdullah. (2010). The effect of perceived service quality dimensions on customer satisfaction, trust, and loyalty in e-commerce settings. Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 22(3), 351-371. Kettinger, W. and Lee, C. (1997), “Pragmatic perspectives on the measurement of information systems service quality”, MIS Quarterly, 21, 223-40. Kim, M. and Stoel, L. (2005), “Salesperson roles: area online retailers meeting customer expectations?”, International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 33(4), 284-97. Lee, GG and Lin, HF. (2005). Customer perceptions of eservice quality in online shopping. International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 33(2), 161-176. Loiacono, E.T.,(2000), .Webqual: a measure of Website quality.. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Georgia. Loiacono, E.T., Watson, R.T. and Goodhue, D.L. (2002). Webqual(TM): a website quality instrument. Paper presented at Winter Marketing Educators’ Conference, Austin, Texas: American Marketing Association. Parasuraman, A., Zeithaml, V. and Berry, L. (1988), “SERVQUAL: a multiple-item scale for measuring consumer perceptions for service quality”, Journal of Retailing, 64(1), 12-40. Raza, M. U., Adeel, A., Nazam, M., Akash, R.S.I., Hashim, M., Ahmad, J., Khan, M.I. (2019). Impact of Individual and Professional Aspects of Employee Behavior on Customer Satisfaction: Empirical Evidences from Pakistani Banking Sector. DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2019.47 Sylvie, R. and Ina, F. (2010). A new measure of e-service quality in France, International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 38(7), 497-517. Vanitha, S., Lepkowska, E. & Rao, B.P. 1999. Browsers or buyers in cyberspace? An investigation of factors influencing electronic exchange. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 5(2): unpaged. Zeithaml, V.A., Parasuraman, A. & Malhorta, A. 2002. An empirical examination of the service quality-value-loyalty chain in an electronic channel. Working paper, University of North Carolina. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina. Dr. Moteb. Ayesh Al-Bugami is an Associate Professor at Department of Management Information System, Faculty of Economics and Administration, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah-Saudi Arabia. He got a PhD degree in MIS. His research interest includes topics related to MIS

Professor Dr.Mairaj Salim is Professor in e-Commerce Marketing, School of Business Studies, Shobhit University, India. His research interest is Artificial Intelligence related to the Marketing field.

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07F

HOW DOES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BANK EFFICIENCY? EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN COUNTRIES Toan Ngoc Bui 1* 1

Faculty of Finance and Banking, Industrial University of Ho Chi Minh City (IUH), VIETNAM.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 12 July 2019 Received in revised form 23 December 2019 Accepted 14 January 2020 Available online 05 February 2020

This article examines the relationship between economic growth and bank efficiency in ASEAN countries for 2004-2017. The Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) is used to estimate the study model. Based on the World Bank's financial development indicators, this article measures the bank efficiency through four indicators, including bank return on assets (ROA), bank return on equity (ROE), bank net interest Keywords: margin (NIM), bank lending-deposit spread (LD). This measure has a Banking system; Financial development; great advantage when considering the bank efficiency in many different aspects, instead of just looking at the bank efficiency from a single GDP growth; GMM; perspective, or the development of the banking system through the Bank return on assets (ROA); Bank return on amount of credit provided to the economy as mentioned in the previous studies, which is a new feature of this study compared to the previous equity (ROE); Bank studies. The study results reveal a positive relationship between bank net interest margin efficiency and economic growth. This study results are the first (NIM); Bank lendingempirical evidence on such a relationship between economic growth and deposit spread (LD). bank efficiency in ASEAN countries. This study vital results, ASEAN countries will have the basis to propose the policies to promote the development of the banking system associated with economic growth more effectively and sustainably. Disciplinary: Economic and Financial Science ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION The banking system is considered as an important component of the financial system and plays an important role in economic growth (Aluko & Ajayi, 2017). Not only that, the bank efficiency can also represent the financial development of each country (Greenwood & Jovanovic, 1990; Bencivenga & Smith, 1991; Pradhan et al., 2014; World Bank, 2018; Bui, 2019). The efficient development of the banking system will promote the business activities, increase competitiveness among the companies (Guiso et al., 2009), the investment capital in the economy will be allocated *Corresponding author (Toan Ngoc Bui). Email: buingoctoan@iuh.edu.vn ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07F http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.126

effectively (Greenwood & Jovanovic, 1990; Bencivenga & Smith 1991), and especially stimulate economic growth (King & Levine, 1993; Levine, 2005; Aluko & Ajayi, 2017; Bui, 2019). Therefore, many empirical studies have suggested that through the banking system, it is possible to predict economic growth (for example, Beck & Levine, 2004; Estrada et al., 2010; Hassan et al., 2011 ). Therefore, the banking system has a significant impact on economic growth. In the opposite direction, there are also some views that economic growth can promote more efficient development of the banking system. Accordingly, when the economy is developing smoothly, the demand for banking products and services will increase, thus stimulating the development of the banking system (Robinson, 1952; Patrick, 1966). Not only that, some other views also suggest that there exists a two-way relationship between economic growth and the banking system (for example, Patrick, 1966; Levine, 1993; Levine, 2005; Ozturk, 2008; Acaravci et al., 2009; Hassan et al., 2011). Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and the banking system has been of great interest in empirical studies, but there are still conflicting views. Moreover, most empirical studies look at the relationship between economic growth and the development of the banking system, in which the development of the banking system is mainly measured through the amount of credit provided to the economy. There are very few studies examining the development of the banking system in terms of efficiency. Meanwhile, bank efficiency is one of the important criteria in the World Bank's financial development indicators, while bank efficiency also reflects more clearly the growth in the business of the banking system. Therefore, it is interesting and necessary to study and there are still many gaps to be explored the relationship between economic growth and bank efficiency.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW The bank efficiency is one of the important criteria representing each country's financial development (World Bank, 2018). Therefore, bank efficiency is a study topic that is of great interest in empirical studies (Batir et al., 2017). In particular, about 95% of these studies focus only on the impact of bank efficiency on economic growth (Berger & Humphrey, 1997), about 70% of which are studied in the United States. There is a lack of empirical studies examining the two-way relationship between economic growth and bank efficiency, especially those in the ASEAN region.

2.1 IMPACTS OF BANK EFFICIENCY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH The effective implementation of these functions by the banking system will play an important role in promoting economic growth (Levine, 2005). The main functions of the banking system include (1) Allocate investment capital, (2) Monitor the use of capital by the companies after providing credit; (3) Facilitate transactions and manage risks; (4) Make capital mobilization; (5) Facilitate the exchange of goods and services. Earlier, Schumpeter (1911) also suggested that the role of intermediary finance is to help accumulate funds, manage the risks and especially stimulate economic growth. Concurrently, King and Levine (1993) suggested that financial development has a significant impact on economic growth. The positive impact of the banking system on economic growth is also found in many empirical studies, for example, Guiso et al. (2009), Wolde-Rufael (2009), Jalil et al. (2010), Kose et al. (2010), Anwar and Cooray (2012), Khoutem et al. (2014), Aluko and Ajayi (2017), Ibrahim and Alagidede (2018), Wang et al. (2019). However, the development of the banking system does not always have a positive impact on

Toan Ngoc Bui

economic growth. Because, the banking system grows in a high manner but not control the quality of credits provided to the economy, which can create the negative impacts for the economy, the global financial crisis at the end of 2007 is a testament to this. The negative impacts of bank efficiency on economic growth are also found in the empirical studies of Pagano and Pica (2012), CournĂ¨de and Denk (2015).

2.2 IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ON BANK EFFICIENCY When the economy develops smoothly, the demand for using the banking products and services will increase, thus stimulating the development of the banking system, and the bank efficiency will also be improved. Indeed, Robinson (1952) found a significant impact of economic growth on financial development as well as the need to use financial services. Accordingly, as the economy develops, the demand for using financial products and services will increase, which will greatly contribute to promoting bank efficiency. Also, Patrick (1966) argues that financial services and institutions are formed to meet the needs of investors and depositors. Therefore, the development of the financial industry is a result of economic growth.

2.3 TWO-WAY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BANK EFFICIENCY The bank efficiency plays an important role in promoting economic growth. In contrast, economic growth is also a condition to stimulate the development of the banking system and increase operational efficiency. In other words, there may be a two-way relationship between economic growth and bank efficiency. Indeed, Patrick (1966) argues that a two-way relationship exists between financial development and economic growth. In particular, economic growth will create the demand for financial services, improve banking efficiency, and increase bank efficiency, which also contributes to stimulating economic growth. King and Levine (1993) found a two-way relationship between financial development and economic performance in 35 countries. In another study, Levine (2005) stated that economic growth will firstly facilitate the formation of financial markets, and then financial markets will help improve economic growth. Besides, Ozturk (2008) argues that a two-way relationship exists between financial development and economic growth in Turkey. In the same opinion, Acaravci et al. (2009) find a two-way relationship between financial development from a banking perspective and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Not only that, Hassan et al. (2011) suggests that there is a two-way relationship between financial development and economic growth in low- and middle-income countries. Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and the banking system has been found in many empirical studies, but there are still conflicting views. In particular, most empirical studies measure the development of the banking system through the amount of credit provided to the economy, and there is a lack of empirical studies examining the development of the banking system in terms of efficiency.

3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY The author collects the World Bank data, for 2004-2017. The countries included in the analysis include 6 ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, and Vietnam), which have an impressive banking system and economic growth in the past period. *Corresponding author (Toan Ngoc Bui). Email: buingoctoan@iuh.edu.vn ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07F http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.126

This article concentrates on the relationship between economic growth and bank efficiency in ASEAN countries. To ensure that the estimated results are highly reliable, the author uses the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) to estimate this study’s models. The GMM estimation method gives great advantages if it is very suitable with financial data (Driffill et al., 1998), can control potential endogenous phenomena well and overcome the violated regression hypothesis (Doytch & Uctum, 2011; Bui, 2020a; Bui, 2020b). From many previous studies, the author measures economic growth (EG) through GDP growth. The bank efficiency is measured through four indicators, including bank return on assets (ROA), bank return on equity (ROE), bank net interest margin (NIM), bank lending-deposit spread (LD). These four indicators reflect bank efficiency in the World Bank's financial development indicators. Using a combination of four indicators reflecting the bank efficiency, the article will assess the bank efficiency from different perspectives, rather than just the bank efficiency from a single perspective or the development of the banking system through the amount of credit provided to the economy as mentioned in the previous studies, this is a new feature of this study compared to previous studies. Thus, the author sets up the models for this study. Impacts of bank efficiency on economic growth: Model 1: EGit = β10 + β11 ROAit + εit

(1),

Model 2: EGit = β20 + β21 ROEit + εit

(2),

Model 3: EGit = β30 + β31 NIMit + ε it

(3),

Model 4: EGit = β40 + β41 LD it + εit

(4).

Impacts of economic growth on bank efficiency: Model 5: ROAit = β50 + β51 EGit + εit

(5),

Model 6: ROEit = β60 + β61 EG it + εit

(6),

Model 7: NIMit = β70 + β71 EGit + ε it

(7),

Model 8: LDit = β80 + β81 EGit + εit

(8).

The symbol ε is the error term within each model. The terms β11 , β21, … , β81 are the linear regression coefficients while β 10, β20 , … , β 80 are the regression constant. Table 1: Summary of variables. Variable name Economic growth Bank return on assets Bank return on equity Bank net interest margin Bank lending-deposit spread

Code How to measure Source EG GDP growth (annual %). ROA Commercial banks’ after-tax net income to yearly averaged total assets. ROE Commercial banks’ after-tax net income to yearly averaged equity. World The accounting value of a bank's net interest revenue as a share of its NIM Bank average interest-bearing (total earning) assets. Difference between the lending rate and the deposit rate. The lending LD rate is the bank's charged rate and deposit interest rate is the bank's rate offered to customers on three-month deposits.

4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS Table 2 gives descriptive statistics of the studied variables.

Toan Ngoc Bui

Table 2: Descriptive statistics of all variables. Variable Economic growth (EG) Bank return on assets (ROA) Bank return on equity (ROE) Bank net interest margin (NIM) Bank lending-deposit spread (LD)

Mean 5.354 1.275 12.928 3.479 3.808

Min -1.514 0.175 1.937 1.386 1.451

Max 14.526 2.901 29.082 6.842 7.681

During the study period, Singapore has the highest economic growth (2010). Meanwhile, Malaysia has the lowest economic growth (2009). As for bank efficiency, Malaysia is the country with the highest bank return on assets and bank return on equity (2011), the lowest value belongs to Thailand (2007). For bank net interest margin, the highest value belongs to Indonesia (2010), the lowest value belongs to Singapore (2016). Indonesia is the country with the highest bank lendingdeposit spread bank (2004), the lowest value belongs to Malaysia (2015) (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Economic growth and bank efficiency in ASEAN countries. *Corresponding author (Toan Ngoc Bui). Email: buingoctoan@iuh.edu.vn ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07F http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.126

The correlation coefficients between variables in the study model are described in Table 3, showing that bank efficiency (ROA, ROE, NIM, LD) positively correlates with economic growth (EG). Table 3: Correlation coefficients between variables. Variables EG ROA ROE NIM LD

EG 1.000 0.150 0.233 0.078 0.045

ROA

ROE

NIM

1.000 0.841 0.613 0.329

1.000 0.546 0.243

1.000 0.343

1.000

Next, the author conducts a test of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of the study models. Table 4: Test results of heteroscedasticity. Model

Heteroscedasticity test chibar2(01) = 3.53 Model 1 (ROA ⟹ EG) Prob > chibar2 = 0.030** chibar2(01) = 1.91 Model 2 (ROE ⟹ EG) Prob > chibar2 = 0.084* chibar2(01) = 2.56 Model 3 (NIM ⟹ EG) Prob > chibar2 = 0.055* chibar2(01) = 1.99 Model 4 (LD ⟹ EG) Prob > chibar2 = 0.079* chibar2(01) = 76.10 Model 5 (EG ⟹ ROA) Prob > chibar2 = 0.000*** chibar2(01) = 12.99 Model 6 (EG ⟹ ROE) Prob > chibar2 = 0.000*** chibar2(01) = 369.01 Model 7 (EG ⟹ NIM) Prob > chibar2 = 0.000*** chibar2(01) = 288.13 Model 8 (EG ⟹ LD) Prob > chibar2 = 0.000*** Note: *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively.

Table 4 shows that all study models have heteroscedasticity. Table 5: Test results of autocorrelation. Model

Autocorrelation test F(1, 5) = 0.000 Model 1 (ROA ⟹ EG) Prob > F = 0.987 F(1, 5) = 0.001 Model 2 (ROE ⟹ EG) Prob > F = 0.972 F(1, 5) = 0.006 Model 3 (NIM ⟹ EG) Prob > F = 0.939 F(1, 5) = 0.013 Model 4 (LD ⟹ EG) Prob > F = 0.914 F(1, 5) = 71.313 Model 5 (EG ⟹ ROA) Prob > F = 0.000*** F(1, 5) = 92.838 Model 6 (EG ⟹ ROE) Prob > F = 0.000*** F(1, 5) = 47.249 Model 7 (EG ⟹ NIM) Prob > F = 0.001*** F(1, 5) = 57.488 Model 8 (EG ⟹ LD) Prob > F = 0.001*** Note: *** indicates significance at the 1% level.

Table 5 shows that Models 5, 6, 7 and 8 have autocorrelation with a significance level of 1%.

Toan Ngoc Bui

Meanwhile, Models 1, 2, 3 and 4 do not have autocorrelation. Therefore, Models 5, 6, 7 and 8 have heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. Meanwhile, Models 1, 2, 3 and 4 only suffer from heteroscedasticity. Therefore, the author will estimate the study models according to the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) to overcome the heteroscedasticity (Models 1, 2, 3 and 4) and the autocorrelation (Models 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8). Not only that, the GMM estimation method also helps the author control the potential endogenous phenomena in the study models. The estimated results of Models 1, 2, 3 and 4 by the GMM method are presented in Table 6. Table 6: Results of estimating the impacts of bank efficiency on economic growth. Model 1 (ROA ⟹ EG) 1.550

Test Constant ROA ROE NIM LD

2.942**

Model 3 (NIM ⟹ EG) 2.963***

Model 4 (LD ⟹ EG) 1.953

0.416** 0.662**

Significance level Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences Sargan test

Model 2 (ROE ⟹ EG) 0.015

Wald chi2(0) = 5.26 Prob > chi2 = 0.022** z = -0.32 Pr > z = 0.746

Wald chi2(0) = 5.47 Prob > chi2 = 0.019** z = -0.29 Pr > z = 0.773

Wald chi2(0) = 6.45 Prob > chi2 = 0.011** z = -0.67 Pr > z = 0.503

0.870** Wald chi2(0) = 5.53 Prob > chi2 = 0.019** z = -0.68 Pr > z = 0.495

chi2(2) = 0.80 chi2(2) = 0.04 chi2(2) = 0.03 chi2(2) = 0.69 Prob > chi2 = Prob > chi2 = Prob > chi2 = Prob > chi2 = 0.671 0.981 0.987 0.708 Note: ** and *** indicate significance at the 5% and 1% level, respectively.

Table 6 shows that the estimated results for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are all statistically significant at the 5% level. And also, the Sargan test shows that the instruments used in the study model are appropriate. Therefore, the estimated results of Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 by the GMM are appropriate and usable. Accordingly, economic growth (EG) is positively affected by the bank return on assets (β = 2.942), bank return on equity (β = 0.416), bank net interest margin (β = 0.662) and bank lending-deposit spread (β = 0.870) with a 5% significance level. In other words, bank efficiency has a positive impact on economic growth (EG). The estimated results of Model 5, Model 6, Model 7 and Model 8 by GMM method are presented in Table 7. Table 7: Results of estimating the impacts of economic growth on bank efficiency. Test Constant EG Significance level Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences Sargan test

Model 5 (EG ⟹ ROA) -0.293

Model 6 Model 7 Model 8 (EG ⟹ ROE) (EG ⟹ NIM) (EG ⟹ LD) -4.444 -1.578 0.052 0.295** 2.386** 1.504** 1.022** Wald chi2(0) = 5.88 Wald chi2(0) = 5.49 Wald chi2(0) = 6.47 Wald chi2(0) = 6.16 Prob > chi2 = Prob > chi2 = Prob > chi2 = Prob > chi2 = 0.015** 0.019** 0.011** 0.013** z = -0.26 z = -0.28 z = -0.64 z = -0.65 Pr > z = 0.793 Pr > z = 0.781 Pr > z = 0.524 Pr > z = 0.517 chi2(2) = 0.89 chi2(2) = 0.04 chi2(2) = 0.03 chi2(2) = 0.77 Prob > chi2 = 0.640 Prob > chi2 = 0.981 Prob > chi2 = 0.987 Prob > chi2 = 0.680 Note: ** indicates significance at the 5% level.

*Corresponding author (Toan Ngoc Bui). Email: buingoctoan@iuh.edu.vn ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07F http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.126

The estimated results of Models 5, 6, 7 and 8 are appropriate and usable. Because the study models are statistically significant at the 5% level, and also, the instruments used in this study models are appropriate. Table 7 shows that economic growth (EG) positively affects bank return on assets (β = 0.295), bank return on equity (β = 2.386), bank net interest margin (β = 1.504) and bank lending-deposit spread (β = 1.022) with a 5% significance level. Therefore, economic growth (EG) has a positive impact on bank efficiency.

Figure 2: Study model results. This study results illustrate a positive relationship between economic growth and banking efficiency in ASEAN countries. Accordingly, the bank efficiency will contribute significantly to promote the business activities of the companies, help allocate the investment capital effectively in the economy, thereby stimulating economic growth. And also, when the economy is growing smoothly, the demand for banking products and services will increase, thereby improving bank efficiency. This result is consistent with Patrick (1966), King and Levine (1993), Levine (2005), Ozturk (2008), Acaravci et al. (2009), Hassan et al. (2011). However, this article focuses on analyzing the relationship between economic growth and bank efficiency, this article does not consider the development of the banking system in terms of the amount of credit provided to the economy as mentioned in these previous studies. This is the difference in this study compared to the previous studies.

5. CONCLUSION This article has achieved its objectives when it finds out a positive relationship between bank efficiency and economic growth in ASEAN countries. This study result is quite similar to the previous judgment in the previous studies. However, this article has achieved the great success by finding the simultaneous relationship of four indicators reflecting bank efficiency from different perspectives (ROA, ROE, NIM, LD) and economic growth (EG ), instead of only considering the development of the banking system through the amount of credit provided to the economy as mentioned in the previous studies, this is a new feature of this study compared to the previous studies. Moreover, there is a lack of empirical studies on this issue in ASEAN countries. Therefore, this article is important for ASEAN countries. Accordingly, ASEAN countries will have the basis to propose policies to promote the development of the banking system associated with economic

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growth more effectively and sustainably. Although the study objectives have been achieved, this article cannot avoid certain limitations, such as: to ensure data similarity among countries included in the analysis, therefore, the number of study countries is still limited, several control variables that can affect the bank efficiency and economic growth have not been considered by the author. This can be interesting study directions for the next study.

6. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Information regarding this study is available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Acaravci, S.K., Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2009). Financial development and economic growth: Literature survey and empirical evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 12(1), 11-27. Aluko, O.A., & Ajayi, M.A. (2017). Determinants of banking sector development: Evidence from SubSaharan African countries. Borsa Istanbul Review, 18(2), 122-139. Anwar, S., & Cooray, A. (2012). Financial development, political rights, civil liberties and economic growth: Evidence from South Asia. Economic Modelling, 29, 974-981. Batir, T.E., Volkman, D.A., & Gungor, B. (2017). Determinants of bank efficiency in Turkey: Participation banks versus conventional banks. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(2), 86-96. Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(3), 423-442. Bencivenga, V.R., & Smith, B.D. (1991). Financial Intermediation and Endogenous growth. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 195-209. Berger, A.N., & Humphrey, D.B. (1997). Efficiency of financial institutions: International survey and directions for future research. European journal of operational research, 98(2), 175-212. Bui, T.N. (2019). The Role of Financial Development in the Vietnam Economy. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 16, 471-476. Bui, T.N. (2020a). Domestic Credit and Economic Growth In ASEAN Countries: A Nonlinear Approach. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 11(2), 11A02N: 1-9. Bui, T.N. (2020b). Supply chain finance, financial development and profitability of real estate firms in Vietnam. Uncertain Supply Chain Management, 8(1), 37-42. CournĂ¨de, B., & Denk, O. (2015). Finance and economic growth in OECD and G20 countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 1223, OECD Publishing, Paris, 1-60. Doytch, N., & Uctum, M. (2011). Does the worldwide shift of FDI from manufacturing to services accelerate economic growth? A GMM estimation study. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(3), 410-427. Driffill, J., Psaradakis, Z., & Sola, M. (1998). Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure using instrumental variables. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 3(4), 321-325. Estrada, G., Park, D., & Ramayandi, A. (2010). Financial development and economic growth in developing Asia. ADB working paper, 233, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 1-54. *Corresponding author (Toan Ngoc Bui). Email: buingoctoan@iuh.edu.vn ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07F http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07F.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.126

Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 1076-1107. Guiso, L., Sapienza, P., & Zingales, L. (2009). Does local ﬁnancial development matter? The banks and the Italian economy. The Banks and the Italian Economy, 31-66. Hassan, M.K., Sanchez, B., & Yu, J.S. (2011). Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from panel data. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51(1), 88-104. Ibrahim, M., & Alagidede, P. (2018). Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth in subSaharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40(6), 1104-1125. Jalil, A., Feridun, M., & Ma, Y. (2010). Finance-growth nexus in China revisited: New evidence from principal components and ARDL bounds tests. International Review of Economics and Finance, 19(2), 189-195. Khoutem, B.J., Thouraya, B., & Kamel, H. (2014). Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(5), 883-898. King, R.G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737. Kose, M.A., Prasad, E.S., Rogoff, K., & Wei, S. (2010). Financial globalization and economic policies. Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 5, North-Holland: Elsevier B.V., 4283-4359. Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. Handbook of Economic Growth. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 865-934. Ozturk, I. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(1), 85-98. Pagano, M., & Pica, G. (2012). Finance and Employment. Economic Policy, 27(69), 5-55. Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189. Pradhan, R., Arvin, M., Hall, J., & Bahmani, S. (2014). Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries. Review of Financial Economics, 23(4), 155-173. Robinson, J. (1952). The Generalisation of The General Theory in The Rate of Interest and other Essays. McMillian, London. Schumpeter, J.A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press, Cambridge. Wang, C., Zhang, X., Ghadimi, P., Liu, Q., Lim, M.K., & Stanley, H.E. (2019). The impact of regional financial development on economic growth in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: a spatial econometric analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 521, 635-648. Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2009). Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya. Economic Modeling, 26(6), 1140-1146. World Bank (2018). Global Financial Development Report 2017/2018: Bankers without Borders. Washington, DC. Toan Ngoc Bui is a Lecturer at Faculty of Finance and Banking, Industrial University of Ho Chi Minh City (IUH), Vietnam. He holds a Master of Finance and Banking from Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam. Currently, he is pursuing a PhD at University of Finance – Marketing (UFM), Vietnam. His researches are in the fields of Financial Development, Real Estate Market and Applied Econometrics.

Toan Ngoc Bui

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07G

EFFECTS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE ON HR OUTCOMES IN THE SAUDI PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES Mohammed A. Alwaheeb 1* 1

Faculty of Management and Information Systems, College of Business Administration, University of Ha'il, Hail, SAUDI ARABIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 29 May 2019 Received in revised form 25 November 2019 Accepted 15 January 2020 Available online 05 February 2020

The research focused on determining the effects of organizational climate on HR outcomes, and on narrowing down the investigation, Saudi Public Universities are taken into consideration. Organizational climate refers to the perception of employees towards the culture of the workplace environment. Organizational climate affects the outcome of the human resource as it directly impacts the motivation and productivity of employees. In this research, the HR outcomes like employee satisfaction, employee relations, and employee retention are taken into consideration whether these are affected because of organizational climate or not. The primary data sources include a self-administered questionnaire that consists of close-ended questions with Likert scale. From the results, it is noted that Employee Retention represents a strong relationship with the organizational climate and other dependent variables also show a positive relationship with the independent variable.

Keywords:

Saudi Universities; HRM; Organizational Climate; Saudi Arabia; Institutional structure; Employee satisfaction; Employee relation; Employee retention.

1. INTRODUCTION Education plays vital roles for individuals and the nation, as their success and failure are dependent on it. Considering the importance of education, the government needs to make sure that the education system, the people providing education in the institutes, and the organizational climate of these institutes are the main focus of the regulatory bodies (McMurray and Scott, 2013). The corporate environment has a significant impact on HR outcome, and to be specific, this research will determine its effect on employees’ satisfaction, relation, and retention. To narrow down the scope of the research, Saudi Public Universities are taken into consideration. The organizational climate, often referred to as the corporate climate, is a process that assists in measuring the culture of the organization. The organizational culture can be explained as a set of *Corresponding author (Mohammed A. Alwaheeb). Email: alwaheebm@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07G http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.127

values and assumptions that are shared by the people working within an organization. The way the people of an organization practices the culture of the organization can be considered as the organizational climate. Organizational climate affects the outcome of the human resource department because it has a direct impact on the behaviour, motivation, and productivity of an employee. It is essential to determine the extent to which organizational climate has an impact on the discussed factors of HR to develop a better institutional structure at the Saudi Public Universities (Danish, et al. 2015). From recent researches, it is determined that employee satisfaction (Raziq et al., 2019), employee retention, and organizational climate have been given importance in all the sectors. The education sector is vital as it is considered as the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s social and economic growth determinant. To further improve the educational system, it is crucial to ensure that the employees in the organization are satisfied and retained. Therefore, the problem of this study is focused on determining the effect of organizational climate on employee satisfaction, employee relation, and employee retention in Saudi Public Universities. This research intends to study the impact of organizational climate on HR outcomes in Saudi public universities. The study signifies the public education sector as it determines the importance of organizational climate for the HR outcomes. Also, it works as a guide to the universities to the path to ensure employee satisfaction and retention through organizational climate. In addition to it, this research can also be helpful for the private universities are other sectors to bring about changes in their organizational climate for better HR outcomes.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE According to Titi (2013), the organizational climate is defined as the way the employees view the culture of an organization. Also, the way the people of an organization practices the culture of the organization can be considered as the organizational climate. The organizational climate can be goal-oriented, people-oriented, rule-oriented, or innovation-oriented. Based on these, the organizations' climate is determined, and the way employees perceive it has an impact on their overall performance (Titi, 2013). The organizational climate in the educational sector focuses more on the faculty staff because it is believed that the main pillars of the education institutes are its professors. As the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s social and economic growth relies on the educational system; therefore, it is essential to realize the importance of excellent faculty staff. To develop an excellent faculty staff, the institutes must provide a positive organizational climate which helps the faculty staff to participate in their duties actively and fulfill their legal obligations without being deviated from the job (McMurray and Scott, 2013). However, it is noticed that the faculty staff requires more attention to developing policies related to a positive organizational climate. Organizational climate is not only necessary for other sectors but is equally vital for the educational industry (Ehrhart et al., 2013). In the organizational climate, it is vital to reward the employees and support them so that they remain committed to their work and loyal to their workplace.

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2.2 HUMAN RESOURCE OUTCOMES Human resource is a term used for those employees that are responsible for managing the employees’ resources. Human resource department and its management strategies are crucial for the organization as it helps in providing an environment that is better for employees. The human resource of the company is not limited to hiring and lay-offs of employees. Still, it also helps in making sure that the employees are provided with resources that impact their productivity and also motivates them. The primary outcomes of human resources are employee satisfaction, employee relation, and employee retention (Bamber et al., 2014). These dimensions are elaborated below. 2.2.1 EMPLOYEE SATISFACTION Employee satisfaction determines whether employees are keen to work or not. Employee satisfaction is a significant factor that determines the motivation level of the employees to work (Balouch and Hassan, 2014). It is also dependent upon the fulfillment of the employees' needs and desires at the workplace. Employee satisfaction is defined as the contentedness of employees with their job and whether they are satisfied with their job or not (Frey et al., 2013). Employee satisfaction is an essential factor for every organization because it has a positive impact on the performance of the employees, ultimately being beneficial for the company. If the employees are satisfied, then it can be concluded that the employees are happy with the working environment. Several factors contribute towards employee satisfaction like organizational climate, empowering employees, employee recognition, activities, and perks. According to Tomaževič, et al. (2014), the organizations should focus on providing a better working environment, healthy activities, and proper compensation to their employees so that the employees remain satisfied with the work and be more productive. Organizations need to take care of their employees as it leads to several other human resource outcomes like employee retention. HR resource department needs to develop strategies that build a stable and healthy working environment for employees because it leads to employee satisfaction. The factor ‘employee satisfaction’ is vital for the organizations to achieve because it will help in achieving the goals of the company as employees will perform to their fullest (Frey, et al. 2013). 2.2.2 EMPLOYEE RELATIONS Employee relation is described as the relation between an employee and an employer. The relationship between employee and employer is significant because the performance of an individual and the company is reliant upon this relation. According to Ntalianis, et al. (2015), the efforts of a company to develop positive relations with its employees are known as employee relations. The aims of keeping a positive employee relation are that it keeps the employees more engaged in the work and makes them more loyal and committed to the workplace. Although the human resource department of the organization is solely responsible for the development of positive employee relations, some companies deploy dedicated staff to handle employee relations in the organization (Balouch and Hassan, 2014). The dedicated staff or the human resource department of a company needs to identify the need for the development of employee relation considering the existing conditions of the company. The *Corresponding author (Mohammed A. Alwaheeb). Email: alwaheebm@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07G http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.127

human resource department should always consider this as it helps the employees to remain committed to their work and do their job more professionally. To make sure that positive employee relation is maintained in the organization, the human resource department needs to develop policies that take into consideration elements like fair compensation, timely disbursement, work-life balance and reasonable working hours. In case of any disputes, the human resource department needs to directly intervene and resolve the issues in a fair manner other than that the human resource department can focus on organizational climate to ensure positive employee relations (Bamber et al., 2014). 2.2.3 EMPLOYEE RETENTION Educated, skilled, experienced, and honest employees are the need of every organization, and every organization is in search of these types of employees. This is a never fulfilling search that opens the opportunity for the people, and the internal conditions of a company influence employees to search for better opportunities that eventually lead to employee turnover (Balouch and Hassan, 2014). Employees are the most critical assets of a company; therefore, an organization should always focus on retaining its employees. Employee turnover adds more cost to an organization, then retaining the employees. According to Das and Baruah (2013), an organizationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ability to keep or retain its employees is known as retention. Several factors lead to employee dissatisfaction resulting in a high employee turnover rate. These factors include a lack of commitment to the organization, low morale, no clear career path, and no positive support in the organization. The human resource department can determine before the resignation that the employee plan to quit by some generic signs that include a decrease in productivity, unusual or not following office timings, negative attitude in the office, and towards the work and expressing dissatisfaction (Hassan et al., 2013). According to Cloutier et al. (2015), the employees can be retained by engaging more with the employees and providing an organizational culture that is acceptable to them. Most importantly, instant payment of benefits is one of the most effective ways of employee retention. In addition to these two strategies, the human resource department should focus on developing strategies that help in retaining employees or provide circumstances which do not influence employees to quit their jobs.

2.3 ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE AND HUMAN RESOURCE OUTCOMES The organizational climate significantly impacts the outcomes of human resources because many things related to employee behaviour is dependent on the organizational climate (McMurray and Scott, 2013). The positive organizational climate allows the employees to determine the type of environment they are working in and whether or not they want to work in this type of environment. Employee satisfaction is crucial for the human resource department, and because of this, such policies are drafted that keep the employees satisfied with their job and the workplace (Balouch and Hassan, 2014). With the help of organizational climate, a company can develop a stable and healthy working environment for its employees, which leads to employee satisfaction. Similarly, Schulz (2013) claims that the human resource department should determine the mode of communication, the coordination between team members and between different teams as it helps in developing a positive organizational climate that leads to employee satisfaction with the workplace.

Mohammed A. Alwaheeb

According to Ntalianis, et al. (2015), employee relation is vital for the organization; therefore, the HR department gives it a high priority while making the policies. Employee relation is essential for the success of the organization; it can be achieved by taking into consideration some small practices that are effective in developing positive relations with the employees. According to Hanaysha (2016), the organizational climate includes a pattern that determines the rights of the employees. The organizational climate can lead to positive employee relations by developing policies of the organization related to fair and timely monetary benefits. With proper compensation, the employee remains satisfied with the job and develops good relations with the human resource department or the employers. Randhawa and Kaur, (2014) agree with Hanaysha (2016) and claim that it is essential to determine the type of organizational climate is implemented in the organization and whether it requires changes or not. These policies define the kind of relations that will develop between the employee and employer. According to Erasmus, et al., (2015), the employees and their interaction with their workplace is the key to identify the attitude of the employee which determines whether that employee will stay connected with the company or is planning to leave the organization. Another research by Kasekende, et al. (2013), suggests that organizational climate plays provide a path that allows a person to consider whether retaining by the employer is essential or not. Providing on-time monetary benefits plays a vital role in providing comfort and releasing the stress of work that leads to a decision of remaining with the company rather than leaving it. Similarly, Hanaysha (2016) states in his research that timely release of monetary payments and engaging with the employees help the human resource department to develop a positive environment at the workplace, which ultimately leads to the satisfaction of the employees and employee retention. As a result, the following hypotheses are proposed: H1: Organizational climate significantly affects employee satisfaction. H2: Organizational climate significantly affects employee relations. H3: Organizational climate significantly affects employee retention.

3. RESEARCH METHOD The researcher aims to carry out quantitative research. The prime reason to use the research is that the research provides an opportunity to test the hypothesis using statistical means (McCusker & Gunaydin, 2015). The statistical sources allow us to understand better the overall cause and effect that lie between the variables of the study (Barnham, 2015). The use of primary as well as secondary data sources is used for the current research. The primary data sources include a selfadministered questionnaire (Emanuelson & Egenvall, 2014). The questionnaire consists of closeended questions with Scale Likert Scale. The five-level Likert scale ranges from Strongly disagree to Strongly Agree, where 1 is Strongly Disagree, 2 is Disagree, 3 is Neutral, 4 is Agree, and 5 is Strongly Agree). The lecturers, as well as other employees from the Public Universities within Saudi Arabia, are selected and provided with the questionnaire. The respondents are required to read and take their time to fill the questionnaire to avoid errors. The reason for the questionnaire *Corresponding author (Mohammed A. Alwaheeb). Email: alwaheebm@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07G http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.127

and the research are told to the respondents, and their consent is taken before asking them to fill the questionnaire. The target population of the study is the overall employees and lecturers working within Public Universities (i.e., 24 government universities ("Ministry of Higher Education Portal - Home 1996 2010," 2016)) in Saudi Arabia. King Saud University, established in 1957, is considered to lay the base of education within Saudi Arabia (Bashshur, 2004). The total number of faculty members work in Saudi universities is 80,000, out of which 33,000 were female (Al-Barjes, 2017). Based on the total population of 80,000 (Al-Barjes, 2017) faculty members within the university level, the researcher determines the overall sample size using a 5% margin of error, 95% confidence interval, and 85% response distribution. The sample size calculated using RaoSoft (2004) is equal to 196, which is rounded to 200 respondents. The sampling technique procedure adopted by the researcher is convenience sampling, allowing to use of non-probability sampling, which drives the sample from the population and which is more likely to represent accurate and fair outcome/results from the analysis. This research uses a self-administered questionnaire as a research instrument. The questionnaire contains a demographic portion and an investigative question portion for the respondents. The demographic data is gathered to devise the portfolio of the respondents. In contrast, the investigative questions are devised to inquire from respondents the impact of organizational climate on the satisfaction, relationship building, and effect on retention rates. This research is conceptualized as organizational climate that was operationalized by using several items based on 22 items developed by Rogg et al. (2001), employee satisfaction - 12 items, employee relations - 4 items and employee retention - 11 items, and were measured using the 5-point Likert scale, with the total of 27 items adopted from the works of Antoncic and Antoncic (2011); and Kyndt et al. (2009). Using SmartPLS 3.2.7 software, the researcher tests the relationship/effect of the independent variable on the dependent variables.

4. RESULT 4.1 ANALYSIS OF ASSUMPTION The descriptive statistics help to develop an understanding of the overall demographic profile of the data. On the other hand, the regression analysis in SmartPLS is carried out to determine the relationship between the variables. The hypothesis testing is done using the regression analysis that helps to reach out to specific discussion as well as to reach to the conclusion for the research. Table 1: Reliability Statistics Variables Employee Relations (ERE) Employee Retention (ERT) Employee Satisfaction (ES) Organizational Climate (OC)

Cronbach's Alpha 0.854 0.908 0.909 0.965

rho_A 0.911 0.915 0.915 0.969

Composite Reliability 0.899 0.923 0.923 0.968

Average Variance Extracted (AVE) 0.693 0.524 0.501 0.586

Reliability testing is carried out using SmartPLS. The analysis of the reliability helps to set the

Mohammed A. Alwaheeb

base for the overall analysis as the for reliability test Cronbach's alpha value must be higher than .70 to use for hypothesis testing. The reliability analysis using SPSS identifies that Cronbach's alpha values for the forty-nine questions are ranged from 0.854 to 0.965 (i.e., higher than .70), Table 1.

4.2 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS The results are gathered using statistical techniques, including descriptive statistics and the regression analysis. The descriptive statistics help to summaries the demographic data using SPSS version 20. Frequency distribution, along with pie charts, is derived to determine the overall responsibility for the demographic data. The Age table and graph helps to identify that there is a mixed age of respondents selected from the current research. The majority of people are from the age group of 26-35 years - 27.5%, followed by 15-25 years - 25.5%, 36-45 years - 25.0%, and more than 40 years, 22%. Table 2: Descriptive Statistics (Age) Age Below than 25 years 26-35 years 36-45 years More than 45 years Total

Frequency 51 55 50 44 200

Percent 25.5 27.5 25.0 22.0 100.0

The graph helps to determine that the majority of respondents for the research study are either married or not married (i.e., 47.5% and 46% respectively). Following that, only 6% of respondents have a relationship, whereas only one respondent is divorced. Table 3: Descriptive Statistics (Marital Status) Marital Status Single Married Divorced In a Relationship Total

Frequency 42 145 1 12 200

Percent 46.0 47.5 .5 6.0 100.0

Table 4 helps to identify that a majority of faculty staff earns in between 10,001 to 20,000 Saudi Riyals that is 39.5%, followed by earnings of SR 5,000 to SR 10,000, and respondents with salaries/ income higher than SR 20,000. This shows that the lecturers and other staff members are paid a handsome amount of money for their efforts. Table 4: Descriptive Statistics (Income) Income SR 5,000-SR 10,000 SR 10,001-SR20,000 More than SR 20,000 Total

Frequency 62 79 59 200

Percent 31.0 39.5 29.5 100.0

Table 5 represents the experience of lecturers and other staff members in years shows that the highest experience among the lecturers and other employees is 4-5 years (28 percent), 1-3 years *Corresponding author (Mohammed A. Alwaheeb). Email: alwaheebm@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07G http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.127

(27.5%), more than 7 years (24.5%), and 5-7 years (20%). Table 5: Descriptive Statistics (Experience In Years) Experience (years) 1-3 years 4-5 years 5-7 years more than 7 years Total

Frequency 55 56 40 49 200

Percent 27.5 28.0 20.0 24.5 100.0

4.3 STRUCTURAL PATH ANALYSIS The structural path analysis is carried out using SmartPLS software and helps to derive outcomes that are easily editable and converted to easily assessable data sources. The structural path analysis is carried out to determine the effect of organizational climate (OC) on the satisfaction, relationship, and retention of employees and lecturers. The outcomes from the regression are given.

OC: Organizational Climate; ES: Employee Satisfaction; ERE: Employee Relationships; ERT: Employee Retention Figure 1: PLS algorithm results

Mohammed A. Alwaheeb

Table 6: Structural path analysis result H1 H2 H3

Relationship OC →ES OC → ERE OC → ERT

Std.Beta 0.534 0.347 0.553

Std.Error 0.046 0.068 0.055

t- value 11.694 5.090 9.976

p- value 0.000 0.000 0.000

Decision Supported Supported Supported

R² 0.33 0.27

f² 0.049 0.366 0.212

Q² 0.175 0.161

VIF 1.366 1.000 1.366

Figure 2: Structural path analysis result. As shown in Table 6 and Figure 1, the outcomes from the structural path analysis show that Organizational climate significantly predicts Employee Satisfaction. Thus, H1 is accepted with (β = 0.534, t = 11.697, p <0.00). Likewise, Organizational climate significantly predicts Employee Relationships. Hence, H2 is supported (β = 0.347, t = 5.090, p <0.000). These are similar to Organizational climate which found significantly influence Employee Retention. Hence, H3 is supported (β = 0.553, t = 9.976, p <0.000). To further analyze the results, the Significance and the Coefficient values are analyzed and interpreted. The analysis of the structural path analysis and values of significance and coefficient helps to identify that all the relationships are significant since these are less than the standard value of the importance of .05. Moreover, the outcomes also help to recognize that the Retention of employees is majorly effected with the adoption of positive organizational culture, followed by the improvement in overall satisfaction among lecturers and employees. Finally, it can also be stated that the relationships of the employees as well as for the lecturers is improved and inclined with the adoption of a positive and productive organizational climate.

5. DISCUSSION Organizational climate has a significant impact on the outcomes of human resources as it determines the practices of values and assumptions within an organization. Organizational climate is the way people employees the culture of the organization, which directly has an impact on their *Corresponding author (Mohammed A. Alwaheeb). Email: alwaheebm@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07G http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.127

working environment and is a critical factor in determining whether the employee likes his or her job or dislikes it (Balouch and Hassan, 2014). Based on it, it is easy to determine the level of employee satisfaction between the employees. Employee satisfaction is an integral element of an organization and is dependent upon the organizational climate. According to McMurray and Scott (2013), OC is vital in determining the employee satisfaction level within the organization. Employee relation is vital for the success of the company as with a healthy environment, the performance of the employees will increase, having a positive impact on the performance of the company (Hanaysha, 2016). The organizational climate helps to provide a better relationship between employees so that they can work together as a team. Also, Randhawa and Kaur (2014) state that the organizational climate plays a vital role in creating a healthy atmosphere for the employees to work together that leads develop better employee relations. Organizational culture and organizational climate determine what employees consider their workplace. The workplace environment and the individual employee interaction determine the behaviour and attitude of the employee, which is directly linked with the employee turnover rate (Kasekende, et al. 2013). Similarly, Erasmus, et al. (2015) demonstrates that organizational climates impact employee retention because the decision to associate with a company is dependent upon the working environment. Based on the results from the structural path analysis, the hypothesis of the research is all accepted since there is statistical proof that organizational climate can be beneficial to improve employee satisfaction, employee relationship, and employee retention. The outcomes of the research help to identify that the most significant effect is on employee retention as the companies can improve the retention rates, followed by improving the satisfaction among employees, and employee relations.

6. CONCLUSION Based on the quantitative analysis of the effect of organizational climate on the HR outcomes (including employee satisfaction, relationships between employees, and employee retention), it is concluded that there is a significant effect of organizational climate on overall HR outcomes. It is noticeable that employee retention is the factor that is majorly and most significantly affected by the adoption of a productive organizational environment within the universities. Along with that, the organizational climate can have a positive impact on improving employee relationships and finally to increase the level of employee satisfaction. Organizational culture is considered to play a significant role and, therefore, is a crucial component/ variable for the Public Universities. It can be stated that the management of universities can adjust the organizational culture to improve satisfaction, retention rates, and further enhance the relationship among employees. From the result, Saudi Arabia universities must further improve the organizational climate to be positive as it can lead to improve the retention rates the most as well as to enhance the relationship and to raise the level of employee satisfaction. All this can help to enhance the overall university level performance as well as can help to provide an opportunity to strategically improve the personal/ employee level performance (Danish, et al. 2015). From the outcomes, future research can be undertaken with a bigger sample size to reach a more generalized result.

Mohammed A. Alwaheeb

Moreover, the management of the universities can also be interviewed to get a more specific outcome. Finally, the researchers can also use a qualitative or mixed approach to gain an in-depth outcome.

7. DATA AND MATERIAL AVAILABILITY Information regarding this study is available by contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Al-Barjes, B. H. (2017). Employment of Saudis in universities. Al-Watan. Balouch, R., and Hassan, F., 2014. Determinants of job satisfaction and its impact on employee performance and turnover intentions. International journal of learning and development, 4(2), 120-140. Bamber, G.J., Stanton, P., Bartram, T., and Ballardie, R., 2014. Human resource management, Lean processes, and outcomes for employees: towards a research agenda. Barnham, C. (2015). Quantitative and qualitative research: Perceptual foundations. International Journal of Market Research, 57(6), 837-854. Bashshur, M. (2004). Higher Education in the Arab States. Saudi Arabia: Beirut: UNESCO Regional Bureau for Education in the Arab States. Cloutier, O., Felusiak, L., Hill, C., and Pemberton-Jones, E.J., 2015. The Importance of Developing Strategies for Employee Retention. Journal of Leadership, Accountability & Ethics, 12(2). Danish, R.Q., Draz, U. and Ali, H.Y., 2015. Impact of organizational climate on job satisfaction and organizational commitment in the education sector of Pakistan. American journal of mobile systems, applications, and services, 1(2), 102-109. Das, B.L., and Baruah, M., 2013. Employee retention: A review of the literature. Journal of Business and Management, 14(2), 8-16. Ehrhart, M.G., Schneider, B., and Macey, W.H., 2013. Organizational climate and culture: An introduction to the theory, research, and practice. Routledge. Emanuelson, U., & Egenvall, A. (2014). The Data–Sources and validation. Preventive veterinary medicine, 113(3), 298-303. Erasmus, B.J., Grobler, A., and Van Niekerk, M., 2015. Employee retention in a higher education institution: An organizational development perspective. Progressio, 37(2), 33-63. Frey, R.V., Bayón, T., and Totzek, D., 2013. How customer satisfaction affects employee satisfaction and retention in a professional services context. Journal of Service Research, 16(4), 503-517. Goodwin, J., 2012. Secondary data analysis.. 2012 ed. Newcastle: Sage. Hanaysha, J., 2016. Testing the effects of employee engagement, work environment, and organizational learning on organizational commitment. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Science, 229, 289-297. Hassan, W., Razi, A., Qamar, R., Jaffer, R., and Suhail, S., 2013. The effect of training on employee retention. Global Journal of Management and Business Research. Kasekende, F., Byarugaba, K.J., and Nakate, M., 2013. Employee Satisfaction: Mediator of Organizational Service Orientation and Employee Retention. Journal of Business & Management, 19(3). *Corresponding author (Mohammed A. Alwaheeb). Email: alwaheebm@yahoo.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07G http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07G.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.127

McCusker, K. & Gunaydin, S., 2015. Research using qualitative, quantitative, or mixed methods and choices based on the investigation. Perfusion, 30(7), 537-542. McCusker, K., & Gunaydin, S. (2015). Research using qualitative, quantitative or mixed methods and choice based on the research. Perfusion, 30(7), 537-542. McMurray, A., and Scott, D., 2013. Determinants of organizational climate for academia. Higher Education Research & Development, 32(6), 960-974. Ministry of Higher Education Portal - Home 1996 - 2010. (2016). Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20101124175122/http://www.mohe.gov.sa/en/studyinside/Governm ent-Universities/Pages/default.aspx Ministry of Higher Education Portal. (2016). Ministry of Higher Education Portal - Home 1996 - 2010. [Online] Available at: https://web.archive.org/ web/20101124175122/http://www.mohe.gov.sa /en/studyinside/ Government-Universities/Pages/default.aspx [Accessed March 2019]. Ntalianis, F., Dyer, L., and Vandenberghe, C. (2015). Owner-employee relations in small firms. Journal of Managerial Psychology, 30(7), 832-846. Randhawa, G., and Kaur, K., 2014. Organizational climate and its correlates: Review of literature and A proposed model. Journal of Management Research, 14(1), p.25. RaoSoft.com, (2004). Sample size calculator by RaoSoft Inc. http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html [Accessed March 2019]. Raziq A., Ilyas, R.M., Talpur, M.G.H. (2019). Impacts of Gender on Job Satisfaction and Work Motivation Relationship: A Case of Teachers in Balochistan, Pakistan. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 10(13), 10A13F: 1-10. Schulz, J., 2013. The impact of role conflict, role ambiguity, and organizational climate on the job satisfaction of academic staff in research-intensive universities in the UK. Higher Education Research & Development, 32(3), 464-478. Titi Amayah, A., 2013. Determinants of knowledge sharing in a public sector organization. Journal of knowledge management, 17(3), 454-471. Tomaževič, N., Seljak, J., and Aristovnik, A., 2014. Factors influencing employee satisfaction in the police service: the case of Slovenia. Personnel Review, 43(2), 209-227. UNESCO-IBE, 1995-2019. Resources | International Bureau of Education. http://www.ibe.unesco.org/en/resources?search_api_views_fulltext=%22WDE%202006%20ind ex [Accessed March 2019]. Dr. Mohammed A. Alwaheeb is an Assistant Professor at Department of Management and Information System, College of Business Administration University of Ha'il, Hail, Saudi Arabia. His research interest includes HRM, Organizational Behavior, Entrepreneurship, and Turnover Intention.

Mohammed A. Alwaheeb

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07H

PREPARATION OF OXO METHACRYLATE-CONTAINING POLYMER/CLAY BASED NANOCOMPOSITES Nevin Cankaya a

Department of Chemistry, Usak University, Usak, TURKEY.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 24 July 2019 Received in revised form 19 December 2019 Accepted 15 January 2020 Available online 06 February 2020

In this study, the synthesis, characterization, and thermal properties of poly(2-(4-methoxyphenyl amino)-2-oxoethyl methacrylate) (MPAEMA) polymer/organoclay based nanocomposites were investigated by in situ polymerization. Firstly, OVHAC organoclay that modified with vinylbenzyldimethylhexadecyl ammonium chloride (VHAC), and MPAEMA monomer were re-synthesized according to the literature. FTIR, XRD, and SEM technique was used in characterization of nanomaterials, and TGA/DTA/DTG simultaneous system was used for thermal characterization of nanomaterials. It was observed from these analyzes that nanocomposite, which was synthesized with the use of high proportion of clay, had an intercalated structure.

Keywords:

MPAEMA; Nanofiller; Polymer/clay nanocomposite; Organoclay; Thermal stability; In-situ polymerization.

Disciplinary: Chemistry 2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Polymer/clay composites have been extensively studied in recent years due to the perfect combination of properties they can offer in clay loading. Carbon nanotubes, graphene and (organo)clays are the most frequently used in polymer nanocomposites as nanofiller [1]. Due to its layered structure, clay is suitable for obtaining such hybrid materials. In addition, since clay is a cheap and abundant substance, it is a very economical approach to use as an inorganic matrix and finds a wide application in technical applications [2]. Since clays are hydrophilic inorganic compounds, they are generally not mixed with hydrophobic character polymers. For this reason, clays are usually modified with long chain alkyl salts to ensure both miscibility and to increase the distance between layers. The modification takes place after a simple displacement reaction. After the reaction, the surface of the clay becomes organophilic and dispersed in organic phases [3-5]. *Corresponding author (N.Çankaya). Email: nevin.cankaya@usak.edu.tr ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07H http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.128

Recently, polymer/clay nanocomposites have been of great interest as they exhibit as much thermal and mechanical properties as the polymer itself. Intercalation and exfoliation are perfect compositions of a nano-scale type. In intercalation, when a small amount of polymer is added between the layers of clay, the intermediate layer expands the spacing, thus resulting in a well-organized multi-layer structure. The layers of clay are completely separated in exfoliation, and the layers are dispersed throughout the polymer matrix. Depending on the type and amount of nanoclay used, the status of intercalation or exfoliation also varies [6,7]. Since polymer/clay nanocomposites have improved physical, mechanical and chemical properties compared to pure polymer, it has recently been one of the most studied areas. While preparing polymer/clay nanocomposites, one of the most used clay types among the clay types selected as nanofiller is MMT and has many advantages over other clay types. In this study, OVHAC organoclay-MMT derivative was used. The purpose of our study is the synthesis and characterization of polymer/organoclay nanocomposites containing oxo methacrylate. MPAEMA (2-(4-methoxyphenyl amino)-2-oxoethyl methacrylate) monomer was first synthesized and its nanocomposite was prepared by free-radical in situ polymerization using organoclay. Then, the morphology and thermal properties of the synthesized composite and organoclay were investigated.

2. EXPERIMENTAL 2.1 Materials

Na+Montmorillonite clay (Na+MMT) nanoclay was provided from Esan-Eczacıbaşı. Na+MMT, a natural bentonite nanoclay and the particular scale gamut <63 μ [8]. For the synthesis of nanoclay, vinylbenzyl chloride, and dimethylhexadecylamine was purchased from Sigma-Aldrich. For the synthesis of MPAEMA monomer, 4-methoxyaniline, triethylamine, chloroacetyl chloride and sodium methacrylate (Aldrich) were used. For nanocomposite synthesis, azobisisobuturonitrile (AIBN) was used as Initiator and 1,4-Dioxane and ethyl alcohol as solvent.

2.2 INSTRUMENTAL MEASUREMENTS A PerkinElmer Spectrum Two (UATR) IR spectrometer was used to conduct the FTIR spectra of all the materials. XRD patterns were collected using a diffractometer of the Bruker Axs D8 Advance. A Zeiss Evo LS 10 was registered for scanning electron microscope observation. In nitrogen atmosphere, thermal analyzes were conducted using a Hitachi 7000 with a heating rate of 10oC/min.

2.3 Synthesis of Organoclay and its Nanocomposites OVHAC organoclay [9-11], and MPAEMA monomer (Fig. 1) [12-14] were re-synthesized according to the literature. For the synthesis of VHAC, vinylbenzyl chloride was dissolved in diethyl ether solvent, and dimethylhexadecylamine was added dropwise. Later, the precipitate formed was filtered, crystallized and dried. For OVHAC synthesis, 1.5g of Na+MMT clay was inflated in pure water, 0.8g of VHAC dissolved in pure water separately and the two solutions were combined, mixed for 1 day, the precipitate formed washed with distilled water. Poly (MPAEMA)/OVHAC nanocomposite was prepared with in-situ method. 50% amount of organonanoclay was dispersed in 1,4-dioxane and stirred at 70 °C for 24 h. 1M MPAEMA monomer was dissolved in 1,4-dioxane at room temperature in another flask. AIBN was added as a free radical

Nevin Çankaya

initiator to the 50% organoclay added monomer. Polymer/organoclay composite was formed by mixing at 75 °C for 48 hours. The composite was precipitated in excess ethyl alcohol, removed from impurities, dried in the oven, and sifted through a 20micron sieve.

2-(4-methoxyphenylamino)-2-oxoethyl methacrylate (MPAEMA) Figure 1: The synthesis scheme of MPAEMA.

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 3.1 FTIR SPECTROSCOPY Figure 2 shows FTIR spectra of OVHAC organoclay, and its nanocomposite. In the FTIR spectrum of the OVHAC organoclay (cm-1), 2920 and 2850 (aliph. C-H), 1630 (aliph. C=C), 1480 (arom. C=C) tensile vibrations are observed from the vinylbenzyldimethylmethylhexadecyl ammonium chloride (VHAC) that used in the modification. In addition, vibrations from the structure of Na+MMT clay (cm-1) that 3600 (OH), 1020 (Si-O), 510 (Al-O), 460 (Mg-O) tensile vibrations are observed. A similar approach has been proposed by Kurt et al. [9-11]. In the FTIR spectrum of the nanocomposite; from the MPAEMA homopolymer, (stretch cm-1) 1738 (C=O ester), 1662 (C=O amide), 1603 (C=C on arom. ring), 1240 and 1509 (symmetrical and asymmetrical C-O-C) are observed and also 2922 and 2623 (aliph. C-H), 1017 (Si-O), 460 (Mg-O) from OVHAC organoclay are observed [15-18].

3.2 XRD Measurements

It was read that the Na+MMT nanoclay was 2θ=7°, 20°, 22° (d=1.26, 0.44, 0.40 nm) from the XRD curve provided by Esan company [8]. In the literature, the crystalline peaks of OVHAC organoclay is 8.7° and weak 3.8° [9-11]. The shift between the layers of clay indicates that the layers of clay are isolated from each other and that natural clay organomodification has been accomplished. In the XRD patterns in Figure 3, the peaks of the OVHAC organoclay were read as 15°, and weak 6°. The peak values of the nanocomposite are the same as the organoclay. This is an expected result in the use of a high proportion of clay [19-29]. The polymer chains enter between the layers of the clay and slightly widen the distance between the layers of the clay; however, the morphological structure in which the crystal layouts of the clay layers are still intact, is known as intercalated. Therefore, we can say that for the nanocomposite, the polymer chains are in an intercalated structure where the chains are placed between the clay layers and the layers expand [17,19-29].

*Corresponding author (N.Çankaya). Email: nevin.cankaya@usak.edu.tr ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07H http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.128

Figure 2: FTIR spectra of a) nanocomposite b) OVHAC, respectively.

Figure 3: XRD patterns of a) OVHAC b) nanocomposite.

Nevin Ă&#x2021;ankaya

3.3 MORPHOLOGICAL REVIEW WITH SEM The distribution of nanoparticles from SEM photographs is presented in Figure 4. As seen in the micrographs of SEM the clay was dispersed in the matrix of polymers. As with the XRD results, the intercalated structure was confirmed in SEM photographs [11,18, 20-22].

Figure 4: SEM micrographs of nanocomposite.

3.4 THERMAL CHARACTERIZATION When the thermal behavior of nanocomposite and organoclay is compared, it is observed that the composite has better thermal stability than organoclay. This thermal change shows us that polymer chains can penetrate between layers of clay and that nanocomposite is properly synthesized. The dispersibility of polymers between the layers of clay limits thermal stability and thereby increases thermal stability [9-11,15-18,21-29]. Simultaneous device TGA / DTA / DTG has calculated the thermal properties of the components. The degradation of the organoclay and composite from the thermogram were observed at one level. Thermogram are given in Figure 5, and some thermal data are given in Table 1. Table 1: Some thermal data of organoclay and nanocomposite. Sample

OVHAC MPAEMA/OVHAC

Max. Decomp. Temp. (°C) 314 366

Temp. of 10% weight loss at (°C) 243 313

Temp. of 20% weight loss at (°C)

Temp. of 25% weight loss at (°C)

Temp. of 50% weight loss at (°C)

%Weight loss at

299 349

314 314

398

48 57

Max. Decomp. Temp. (°C) 50 41

4. CONCLUSION In this research, MPAEMA (2-(4-methoxyphenyl amino)-2-oxoethyl methacrylate) monomer and OVHAC organoclay were re-synthesized according to the literature for composite synthesis. Characterization of polymer/organoclay nanocomposite synthesized by in-situ polymerization method was performed by FTIR, XRD, SEM techniques and also, thermal behaviors were investigated. From XRD, SEM and thermal measurements, it was observed that the morphology of *Corresponding author (N.Çankaya). Email: nevin.cankaya@usak.edu.tr ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07H http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.128

Figure 5: The TGA/DTA/DTG curves of the a) OVHAC b) nanocomposite, respectively. nanocomposite was intercalated when the clay content is made high. In addition, the poly (MPAEMA)/OVHAC nanocomposite shows higher thermal stability than the OVHAC organoclay. Given that polymer/clay composites are used in various fields such as innovative synthesis methods, aviation, automobile, construction, packaging, petroleum, biomedical and wastewater treatment, we hope that this study will lead the literature and companies.

Nevin Ă&#x2021;ankaya

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors.

6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors wish to thank the Uşak University Research Fund for providing financial support for this research (2016/TP001).

7. REFERENCES [1] Bhattacharya, M. (2016). Polymer Nanocomposites-A Comparison between Carbon Nanotubes, Graphene, and Clay as Nanofillers. Materials. 9(4), 262. [2] Roelofs, J.C.A.A., Berben, P.H. (2006). Preparation and performance of synthetic organoclays. Applied Clay Science. 33(1), 13-20. [3] Okamoto, M., Ray, S.S., Edited by Nalwa, H.S. (2004). Polymer/Clay Nanocomposites. Encyclopedia of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology. 8, 1-52. [4] Gilman, J.W. (1999). Flammability and thermal stability studies of polymer layered-silicate (clay) nanocomposites. Applied Clay Science. 15(1–2), 31-49. [5] Paiva, L.B., Morales, A.N., Valenzuela, F.R. (2008). Organoclay: properties, preparation and applications. Applied Clay Science. 42, 8-24. [6] Liu, P., (2007). Polymer modified clay minerals: A review. Applied Clay Science. 38, 64-76. [7] Ray, S.S., Okamoto, M., Polymer/Layered Silicate Nanocomposites: A Review from Preparation to Processing, Progress in Polymer Science, (2003), 28, 1539-1641. [8] Çankaya, N., Şahin, R. (2019). Chitosan/Clay Bionanocomposites: Structural, Antibacterial, Thermal and Swelling Properties. Cellulose Chemistry and Technology. 53(5-6), 537-549. [9] Kurt, A., Yavuz, R., Bozdağ, G. (2013). Synthesis of Polystyrene-Clay Nanocomposites, Investigation of Thermal and Optical Properties. Adıyaman University Journal of Science. 3(2), 58-70. [10] Kurt, A., Yilmaz, P. (2016). Thermal decomposition kinetics of benzofuran derived polymer/organosilicate nanocomposites. Kuwait J. Sci. 43(2), 172-184. [11]

Kurt, A., Koca, M. (2015). Optical Properties of Poly(2-(5-bromo benzofuran-2-yl)-2-oxoethylmethacrylate)/Organoclay Nanocomposites. Arab. J. Sci. Eng. 40, 2975-2984.

[12] Çankaya N., Besci G. (2018). Synthesis, characterization, thermal properties and reactivity ratios of methacrylate copolymers including methoxy group. Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University. 33 (3), 1155-1170. [13] Acikbas, Y., Çankaya, N., Capan, R., Erdogan, M., Soykan, C. (2016). Swelling behaviour of the 2-(4-methoxyphenylamino)-2-oxoethyl methacrylate monomer LB thin film exposed to various organic vapours by quartz crystal microbalance technique. Journal of Macromolecular Science, Part A, Pure and Applied Chemistry. 53(1), 18-25. [14] Daşbaşı, T., Saçmacı, Ş., Çankaya, N., Soykan, C. (2016). A New Synthesis, Characterization and Application Chelating Resin for Determination of Some Trace Metals in Honey Samples by FAAS. Food Chemistry. 203, 283-291. [15] Zhang, W.A., Chen, D.Z., Xu, H.Y., Shen X. F., Fang, Y.E. (2003). Influence of four different types of organophilic clay on the morphology and thermal properties of polystyrene/clay *Corresponding author (N.Çankaya). Email: nevin.cankaya@usak.edu.tr ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07H http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07H.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.128

nanocomposites prepared by using the c-ray irradiation technique. European Polymer Journal. 39(12), 2323-2328. [16] Li, Y., Zhao, B., Xie, S., Zhang, S. (2003). Synthesis and Properties of Poly(Methyl Methacrylate)/Montmorillonite (PMMA/MMT) Nanocomposites. Polymer International. 52(6), 892. [17] Kurt, A., Topsoy, O.K. (2017). Preparation of Novel Coumarin Cyclic Polymer/Montmorillonite Based Nanocomposites. Russian Journal of Applied Chemistry. 90(12), 2019-2027. [18] Soykan, C., Akbay, M. (2019). In-Situ Synthesis of Polymer-Clay Nanocomposites: Exfoliation of Organophilic Montmorillonite Nanolayers in Poly 2-Thiozyl Methacrylamide. Journal of Material Science and Technology Research. 6, 22-33. [19] Doğar, Ç., Gürses, A., Köktepe, S., Mindivan, F., Güneş, K., Aktürk, S. (2014). Synthesis and Characterization of Phenol/Urea/Formaldehyde and Clay Composites. Acta Physica Polonica A. 125(2). [20] Nikolaidis, A.K., Koulaouzidou, E.A., Gogos, C., Achilias, D.S. (2019). Synthesis and Characterization of Dental Nanocomposite Resins Filled with Different Clay Nanoparticles. Polymers. 11, 730. [21] Longo, S., Mauro, M., Daniel, C., Galimberti, M., Guerra G. (2013). Clay exfoliation and polymer/clay aerogels by supercritical carbondioxide. Frontiers in Chemistry. 1(28), 1-9. [22] Campos L.M.P. et al. (2016). Evaluation of polymerization shrinkage in dental restorative experimental composites based: BisGMA/TEGDMA, filled with MMT. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 43543, 1-10. [23] Mansa, R., Detellier, C. (2013). Preparation and Characterization of Guar-Montmorillonite Nanocomposites. Materials. 6, 5199-5216. [24] Doğar, Ç., Gürses, A., Karaca, S., Köktepe, S., Mindivan, F., Güneş, K. (2014). Investigation of thermal properties of PUF/clay nanocomposites. Applied Surface Science. 318, 59-64. [25] Kiersnowski, A., Kozak, M. Jurga, S. Pigłowski, J. (2004). Structure and Crystallization Behaviour of Poly(ε-caprolactone)/Clay Intercalated Nanocomposites. Polymers&Polymer Composites. 12(8), 727-737 [26] Campos, L.M.P. et al. (2014). Polymerization Shrinkage Evaluation on Nanoscale-Layered Silicates:Bis-GMA/TEGMA Nanocomposites, in Photo-Activated Polymeric Matrices. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 40010, 1-6. [27] Campos, L.M.P. et al. (2017). Thermal and mechanical behavior evaluation of dental composites filled with irradiated montmorillonite. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 45063, 1-6. [28] Nikolaidis, A.K., Koulaouzidou, E.A., Achilias, D.S. (2019). Synthesis and Characterization of Novel Organomodified Nanoclays for Application in Dental Materials, Current Nanoscience. 15, 1-12. [29] Nikolaidis, A. K., D. S. Achilias, G. P. Karayannidis (2012). Effect of the type of organic modifier on the polymerization kinetics and the properties of poly(methyl methacrylate)/organomodified montmorillonite nanocomposites. European Polymer Journal. 48, 240-251. Dr. Nevin Çankaya is an Associate Professor at Department of Chemistry, Uşak University, Uşak, Turkey. She got a Doctoral degree in Chemistry from Fırat University of Elazığ, Turkey. Her research focuses on Polymer, Biopolymer, Nanocomposite, Physical Chemistry.

Nevin Çankaya

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07I

URBANISATION IN AJMAN PUSHING BY HOUSING DEVELOPMENT 1*

Julaihi Wahid , Bassim Saleh , Mohammad Shihadeh A.Arar , Jihad Awad

Department of Architecture, Faculty of Built Environment, University Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, MALAYSIA. 2 Department of Architecture Engineering College of Engineering Ajman University, Al Jurf, Ajman, UAE. ARTICLEINFO

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Article history: Received 29 May 2019 Received in revised form 27 January 2020 Accepted 03 February 2020 Available online 10 February 2020

This paper establishes the context of housing and urbanisation in Ajman. Changes in land use are pressing on a pattern of settlement. One central issue concerning the UAE is the fast track development in the newly peri-urban areas with the construction of infrastructure, although most areas are barren desert. Due to the urban sprawl from Dubai and nearby cities, there is an issue of growing importance in light of urban Keywords: Urban Housing; Land-use urgency for housing in Ajman. The increasing housing demand is due to expatriates looking for accommodations. The UAE national housing plan; Emirates of UAE; program is catering to its citizens. However, the growth of housing Housing development; Urban morphology; development pushes for immediate action on the city systems planning. Migrant workers; City The rush to supply housing without paying attention to the detailed planning; Ajman aspects of housing design, and focusing mainly on functional vitality Emirate. requirements without considering the long-term impact on urban morphology and urban design will adversely affect the environmental policy of development in Ajman. As housing supply growth, a wise idea is to check the increasing concern over the long-run economic growth and the infrastructure connecting the other Emirates and the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C) states. Hence, this paper delves into the nature of urban housing in the Emirates by focusing on Ajman in parallel to a projection of economic and physical development. The research mixed-method bases on primary and secondary data with mapping techniques, informal interviews, observations, photography and visual analysis to analyze the consequences of housing development and its impact on land-use and pace of urbanisation. The findings cover the morphology of Ajman city, the price index of housing affordability and patterns development according to urbanisation rate concerning the needs and progress of the Emirates. Disciplinary: Architecture and Town Planning, Urbanization, Migration, and Mobility Studies, Sustainability Development. ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH. *Corresponding author (J.Wahid). Email: wjulaihi@unimas.my ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07I http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.129

1. INTRODUCTION The influx of migrant workers from Asia, the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) and East Asian countries is propelling the housing in the UAE. UAE became a haven for Arabs experiencing the turmoil of war and displacement in neighbouring countries. Open policies and the traditional hospitality of Arab culture established a relationship in global trade and business that gave an opportunity to expatriates (Muhammad, 2017). The migration of population plays a vital role in the urbanisation process of the U.A.E. Experts attributed to the rapid increase of the UAE population by a massive influx of foreign labor. In 1975, Ajman was only inhabited by 14,351 people, the population increased eightfold (114,395) in 1995 and to 225,000 people in 2003 (Table 1). The annual growth rate per annum cannot be determined exclusively due to the sudden increase in the population. In 1983 and 1995 the population shift from 5.3% to 5.7% respectively, while in 2001 to 2002 it declines to 3.48%, however, in 2003, the rate of growth in the population increased to 6.3%. Table 1: Population in Main Cities of UAE (Source: Tedad Census 2003). City 1975 1980 1985 1995 2003 Ajman 14,351 33,651 49,108 114,395 225,000 Sharjah 58,053 125,193 173,787 320,095 519,000 Dubai 179,926 263,449 354,175 669,181 1,171,000 Abu Dhabi 127,763 243,257 283,361 398,695 552,000 Total 380,093 665,550 860,431 1,502,366 2,467,000 The majority of this growth has been attributed to the influx of migrant workers drawn by the hope of ready employment at attractive wages in Dubai. According to the Ministry of Labor, foreigners make up about 85 percent of the population where there are 4.5 million expatriates compared with only 800,000 Emirati citizens in 2005. By 2016 the population had reached 9.27 million, of which Emirati citizens comprised 1.2 million (Figure 2: World Bank Report 2016).

Figure 1(a): Location of Ajman

Figure 1(b): Ajman City Map (Source www.google.ae, 2018)

This paper focusses on Ajman that is situated between the emirates of Sharjah and Umm Al Quinn and extends over a distance of 10 miles (about 100 square miles) which is only 0.3 percent of the total area of the U.A.E. As the smallest state in the emirates, it covers an area of 259 square kilometers as shown in Figure 1(a). The emirate is composed of three regions: the town of Ajman, 2

J. Wahid, B. Saleh, M.S.A.Arar, J. Awad

which includes the commercial district; Masfut, an agricultural zone in the south-eastern mountainous measure of the emirate; and Manama, in the eastern portion of the emirate as illustrated in Figure 1(b). The pace of urbanisation in Ajman started in 1980 with the petrodollar economy. The upsurge of the global economy led the government to take various steps to modernize its rural population to be able to participate fully in the modern economy competing with expatriates coming from all over the world.

Figure 2: Population of UAE (Source: Global Media Insight - Dubai Digital Interactive Agency 2017). Infrastructure in UAE is the essential driving force, and they claimed to have the most advanced infrastructure in the region for their rapid urbanisation. The country is well connected with significant destination hubs and nodes of activity for economic progress by air, land, and sea (Elsheshtawy, 2009). Ajman’s geographical location between Dubai and Sharjah in the south and Ras Al Khaimah and Umm Al Quinn in the north enable it to receive the expansion of infrastructure from all directions. Ajman Municipality is responsible for various socio-economic projects ranging from basic-needs projects to industrial growth investments and education. The proximity to Dubai and relatively low housing rents make Ajman an attractive place to live (Figure 2). The demand for housing in Ajman is not caused by internal rural-urban migration but rather by the influx of expatriates. The shift of the economy from oil-based industries to more diversified industrial and commercial sectors lead to the expansion of the region’s territorial boundary. The strategic location near the Arab Gulf and the GCC promotes industrial sectors, as well as other activities such as agriculture, trading, tourism, and fisheries. Hence, the gateway to most of the neighbouring regions reassures a strategic value of the core activities activated by the locals.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW There is no single specific literature on Ajman that can be referred for this research to elaborate on the geography or the process of urbanisation. Instead, the researcher comprehended the information from the news of U.A.E, Dubizzle statistics and related articles from Khaleej Times available from google data. This information is expanded as follows: *Corresponding author (J.Wahid). Email: wjulaihi@unimas.my ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07I http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.129

2.1 THE URBAN POPULATION OF AJMAN, SHARJAH, DUBAI AND ABU DHABI. The average population growth rate in U.A.E. stood about 6.4 percent between 1980 and 1985 while it picked up to 7.7 percent from 1986 to 1995 and 8.8 percent from 1996 to 2003 respectively, however, U.A.E. citizens account for 18 percent of the total population according to an independent estimate. In 1980 U.A.E. population reached 1.04 million; it surged to nearly 4.041 million at the end of 2003 and is projected to exceed 4.3 million by 2005 (Ministry of Planning, 2000). Table 2 shows the growth and distribution of the inhabitants in major cities of the U.A.E. The 2010 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2030 strategy for Ajman sets out three possible population growth rates; from 1995 to 2005, the population in Ajman doubled from 114,395 to 225,000. By 2030 to 2050 it is expected to increase from 800,000 to 1,500,000 people respectively if the economic growth remains as it is. Sharjah, Dubai and Abu Dhabi are also experiencing a similar advance in the city. The increase in urbanisation has occurred in Ajman, Ras El Khaimah and El Fujairah that were once sleepy emirates. Compared with other developing countries, this remarkable increased is one of the highest in the world. Urban sprawl is implicit within the context of its system. The total building limits of the emirate are 142 square kilometres, and the built area comprises 40 percent of that. Generally, cities, towns, and neighbourhoods are interrelated complex entities - the changes in the city of Ajman is indeed far-reaching and brings into question the conventional understanding of urban problems and solutions. It is recorded that within a period of ten years (1995 to 2005), there are 20 percent increased in urban development. However, the concentration of the development is proximity to the existing urban centres that served the community since the 1970â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (Table 1: Tedad Census).

Figure 2: UAE location of population concentration (source: Google Earth satellite image).

2.2 CAUSES OF URBANISATION Urbanisation has gained momentum over the world, especially in developing countries. Cohen (2004) states that 60.8 percent of people are living in cities and the pace of urbanisation is unmanageable, especially in developing countries. The United Arab Emirates is another fast-growing country. The population of the U.A.E has reached 9.2 million people (U.A.E. Worldometer, 2018) and Ajman as the smallest emirates also increased tremendously from 14,351 people in 1975 to 225,000 in 2003 and 262,186 in 2011. The growth of the population led to the demand for housing and the expansion of infrastructure in the city (Table 2). The correlation between the supply and demand for housing with population change is evident as clarified by Glaeser et al. (2005). In some cases with the developing world, the pace of urbanisation does not rely on the push and pull theory of the old school of thought of urban planning. There are a conscious diffusion 4

J. Wahid, B. Saleh, M.S.A.Arar, J. Awad

and adaptation brought about rationally by the introduction of the urban experience. Here, the idea of the urbanisation pro cess almost reverses where the development of large tracts of land in t h e peri-urban zone became the focus of housing development in almost every corner of the world. The physical development of Ajman in 2004 only concentrated along the main artery of Sheikh Zayed Road while after 2014 it spreads as far as the Zorah and Helio regions (Figure 4). The artery road that links Ajman to Sharjah continues, linking Umm Al Quinn and Ras Al Khaimah (RAK). It opens the opportunity for physical development to the north of the country (Table 2). The Emirates has structured planning for physical development. The long planning strategy of Vision 2021 aims to enhance economic and social progress through high-quality infrastructure. Since October 2014, the government has built seven hospitals, seven dams, three mosques, thirty-five roads, four harbors, three water and sewerage disposal plants and three projects for water and electricity. Table 2: Comparing the three Emirates of the North (Source: U.A.E. population and statistic.gulfnews.com). Year/Emirate

Area(km2)

Ajman R.A.K Uum Al Quin

259 1684 777

2005 179 102 30

2010 460 250 73

Population 2015 2020 441 463 235 245 67 70

2025 490 258 73

2030 577 272 77

2.3 HOUSING POLICY The U.A.E. vision for 2021 has allocated AED 16 billion for the improvement of infrastructure for it is running concurrently to catch up with the growing urban population. The demand for housing, public amenities, clean water, drainage and refuse dumpsites accelerates problems with which municipal administrators must cope. In the efforts towards urbanisation, one gain and sacrifices much. In a traditional society, the permanence of culture is challenged most strongly by its dynamics in the process of urbanisation. Taking culture into account for a progressive society by balancing traditional Muslim values with modernization and development is not a hindrance to the Emirates. How traditional culture can tolerate and change with urbanisation relies entirely on the component of culture that can sustain itself in the process of change brought about by urbanization. Proponents of cultural resiliency believe that there is a need to root oneself in a cultural tradition, in an established way of seeing the world (weltanschauung), and a set of values and evaluation premises to be able to gain optimally from the process of urbanisation. Otherwise the sense of drifting apart that accompanies urbanisation has often brought about various problems; social, economic and political. Ajman Emirate is experiencing the process of urbanisation as elsewhere in the developing world, and at the same time, the government is ensuring that settlement undergoes a structured process to eradicate urban poverty or informal housing in the city. The residents are expected to adapt to the changing environment. This concept, however, needs to be understood since many would interpret differently in the spatial changes of urban space without understanding the underpinning of the environment. Thus, the process of housing design needs to be defined by cultural norms and the needs of the local population. On the other hand, the image of forwarding progress according to western civilization should not be copied and embedded in the current urban development. Instead, *Corresponding author (J.Wahid). Email: wjulaihi@unimas.my ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07I http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.129

the image of “modernisation” is reflected through image building housing provision in Ajman. Although the provision of housing in Ajman is in its infancy, the problems of over-supply have not yet arisen. The ruler of the Emirates is responsible for the welfare of its citizens. The Sheikh Zayed Housing Program (SZHP) was started in 1999 to plan for housing development in U.A.E. The Sheikh Zayed Housing Program caters for its nationals, while expatriates are allocated a housing allowance from their employer, enabling them to choose housing typologies according to their affordability. The program helps to solve the problem of low-income people by giving interest-free loans repayable for over 25 years to its nationals. Parallel to the country’s vision to modernise and build world-class infrastructure, the government has granted a policy of giving away houses, plots and housing loans to its people (Table 3). The people are provided with various housing schemes, including loans to buy, build, renovate and maintain an existing house. The SZHP gives priority to the poor, widows, senior citizens and people with special needs. The federal government since 2010 has allocated 1.8 billion Dirhams to increase these activities, and from the year 2000 to 2012 it is estimated that 15,500 Emiratis have benefitted from this program. In 2013 the ruler also approved housing projects for new homes and reforming of existing houses. Table 3: Number of New Residential Units Added by the MoPW in the Emirates (Source: Ministry of Public Work 2015). EMIRATES Sharjah R.A.K Ajman Uum Al Quinn Fujairah

1974 - 1979 539 1369 330 385 1021

PERIOD 1980—1989 1990-1999 777 876 530 -NA390 589 56 511 540 690

2000-2009 103 400 124 27 772

2.4 HOUSING STOCK IN AJMAN Ajman grew from a trading post for pearls off the coast of the Arabian Gulf. The physical development spread inland with buildings providing services related to maritime activities. Ajman is not designed as a continual interrelated urban system judging from the evolution of its city. The downtown as the core reference for the town centre is a misconception by locals. They refer to the shopping mall comprised of hypermarkets and few retail outlets under one roof as the city centre. The conglomeration of city functions is scattered and only frequented by automobiles. Since Ajman University is the central hub of urban activities, the concentration of infrastructure is distributed around and connected to this campus. The distance to the Ajman University does matter to the new expatriates, and the demand for housing within the vicinity became a preferred place. Hence, the prospective developers will choose the nearest location to the university. With regard to that, the four main areas of attraction for housing developments are Emirate City, Al Jurf, Al Sawan and Rashidiya (Figure 4). Al Jurf was once a sleepy barren-desert valley but now houses the main campus of Ajman University. This major hub of activities became the main concentration of development. The district of Al Jurf was once the location of the last government office in the north, the Department of Traffic and Licensing office. With the establishment of the new campus of Ajman University, the price of land soared to 67 Dirhams/square feet, leading to further development of urban facilities such as the China Mall and Al Jurf Industrial Zone. These extensions allow the linear pattern of change along the trunk roads from the south until the northern region of the U.A.E. 6

J. Wahid, B. Saleh, M.S.A.Arar, J. Awad

The typology of two bedrooms plus hall, and kitchen (2 BHK) is the typical housing plan layout in Ajman. The adverse effect on the land cost is shown by the house price in Table 4, disclosing that the sizes range from 1,000 square feet to 2,000 square feet. Generally, the dimensions of the rooms are rather generous; however, the Muslim culture of the expatriates (usually from Middle-East and Pakistan) does not suit well to two bedrooms if the tenants have both male and female children. After 2015 the attention of the housing development spread to Emirates City, Al Jurf, Al Salwan and Rashidya (Figure 3). These areas underwent a concentration of business centres as well due to the need for services for the neighbouring tenants. Table 4: Selling Price of Two Bedroom Apartments in Ajman (Source: Dubizzle, 2018) No 1

Type 2 BHK

2 3 4 5 6

2 BHK 2 BHK 2 BHK 2 BHK 2 BHK

Location (Ajman) Conquer Tower, Sheikh Maktoum Bin Rashid Street Jasmine Tower, Garden City Pearl Tower Ajman Cornice Sulfa Tower Lake Tower C4

Size (Sq. Ft) 1,478

Price AED 872,724

1,087 1,312 2,125 1,566 1,410

295,000 360,000 700,000 390,000 375,000

Figure 3: Popular Housing Areas of Ajman (Source: Bayut 2018). On the other hand, this scene only occurred in the post-urban environment in western cities where decentralised loosely connected neighbourhoods and zones of activities appeared in the locality (Andrew et. Al. 2004). The demand for housing from staff and urban services from students became the magnet for all physical improvement. On top of that, the increasing housing growth in Ajman is also affected by the spill-over of the development in Dubai and Sharjah. Judging from the proximity of Ajman with Dubai and Sharjah as compared to RAK and Umm Al Quinn, infrastructure is well connected and became the main determinant in the migration of workers looking for cheaper housing. Lately, the development is increasingly moving towards the northeastern side of the region. Since then, the key property players in U.A.E. started to focus on Ajman (Table 5). The three typologies, i.e. townhouses, villas, and apartments are commonly built in the area at different prices ranging from 400,000 to 1.2 million AED. The major players in the property markets are investors from India, Pakistan, and G.C.C. countries. The investment in each project seems very encouraging and each development is providing services to attract potential buyers. Expatriates are not keen to invest in property due to the security of the appointments, where security is reliant on loyalty. As *Corresponding author (J.Wahid). Email: wjulaihi@unimas.my ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07I http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.129

Marcade (2016) pointed out, the organisation may fire the employee upon disagreement although he or she may have served for 12 years. The location and facilities play a significant role in private sector development. The site at the beach and the city centre are preferable. Ajman Corniche Residence, located near the beach and the city is a new image of seven high-rise towers exclusively for high-end tenants (Table 5). However, the concentration of urban facilities does assure to lure the buyer as that of Al Zorah Mixed-use Development which is furnished with a gated community concept. The location which is far from the town and trunk road discourages the buyer. Table 5: Housing Developments in Ajman By Private Sectors. Developer Aqaar Properties Al Zorah Development Company Sweet Homes Holding

Aqaar Properties Sweet Homes Holding

Project Name Ajman Corniche Residence Al Zorah Mixed -Use Development

Area GFA = 2,200,000 Sq. Ft. 5.4 million m2

Cost US$163 million project US$ 6 billion project

Ajman Uptown

4 Million Sq. Ft.

US$953 million project

Ajman One Mixed - Use Development Rainbow Towers Residential Development

72,000 m2

US$898 million project US$463 million project

1,797 m2

No. of Residential Units 7 high rise towers 800 residential units, 200 villas and 600 apartments 1504 G+2 Townhouses/Villas with 7 G+4 commercial and residential buildings 12 freehold residential towers Six residential towers of 31 storeys

Figure 4: Locations of Projects in Ajman (Source: www.google.ae 2018)

3. METHODOLOGY Ajman is a newly developed city dating from 1973 according to the petrodollar industry (Table 3). Ajman became the focus of this research due to its central location between Dubai, Sharjah and the two northern emirates i.e. Umm Al Quinn and Ras Al Khaimah. Ajman University is an important higher education centre in this region and attracts property growth for staff and student support facilities. This research employs a mixed-method approach, through the analysis of printed materials, interviews, reports and guidelines from the municipality. This paper highlights the pattern of changes in morphology and the pace of urbanisation and draw attention to the past urbanisation to monitor the changes. Published data from the municipality and interviews with the officer at Ajman 8

J. Wahid, B. Saleh, M.S.A.Arar, J. Awad

Municipality supplements the data, while the technique of mapping and longitudinal evidence from the archives of Ajman will be used to support the data. This study is limited to Ajman Emirate, although an overview of the United Arab Emirates is mentioned.

4. HOUSING DELIVERY SYSTEM Public sector participation in housing delivery in Ajman is crucial. In 2000 and 2010, the developer focused on high-rise living. High-rise apartments of two and three bedrooms with two and three baths respectively and a hall (referred to as 2 BHK and 3 BHK) were built up along the Sheikh Zayed Road and Ittihad Road as of 2004. After 2015, the concentration of apartments lingered around Ajman University. The campus and surrounding areas also became the focus of new developments with shopping malls and retail outlets, providing fast-food chains and tandoori shops. It serves the nearby apartment complex. The boxy shaped buildings perfectly fit six units per floor while the ground level is utilized for retail shops and public services. The mix of two bedrooms and three bedrooms are the features of the design in most areas. The tenants are often Arabs, Pakistani and Indians. In UAE, the rent is paid in advance for one whole year, ranging from 3,000 Dirhams/month to 7,000 Dirhams/month depending on location and finishes (Table 7). Table 7: Rental rate and distance to metro/city centre in Ajman and Dubai (Source: Dubizzle, 2017) Location

UNIT

LOCATION

DUBAI

1 BHK 1 BHK 1 BHK 2 BHK 2 BHK 2 BHK 3 BHK 3 BHK 3 BHK

Dubai Silicon Oasis Sulata Tower Jumeirah Lake Tower Al Jadaf Village Business Bay Al Jadaf Culture Village Dubai Marine Al Qusab Sulfa Tower

RENTAL (Thousand Dirhams per year) 65 80 70 85 118 110 235 115 130

AJMAN

1 BHK 1 BHK 1 BHK 2 BHK 2 BHK 2 BHK 3 BHK 3 BHK 3 BHK

Naiyimia Tower Garden City Horizon Tower Ajman Jasmine Rashidiya Tower Ajman Pearl Tower Falcon Tower Horizon Tower Naiyimia Tower

25 22 30 30 35 32 48 45 49

DISTANCE To Metro 1 min 1 min 1 min 1 min 1 min 1 min 1 min 1 min 3 min To City Centre 31 min 34 min 34 min 34 min 34 min 34 min 34 min 34 min 31 min

5. DISCUSSION A long coastline and flat, undulating land annexed to the fast-growing emirates of Sharjah and Dubai gave an opportunity for Ajman to grow along with other emirates. The infrastructure is well established and linked by roads, sea and air. The two trunk roads of Sheikh Zayed Road and Ittihad Road are the linkages to the northern part of the Emirates from Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah that open the frontier for the physical development in Ajman. The housing program is important for urbanization. The demand for housing in Ajman itself is dependent on incoming expatriates. *Corresponding author (J.Wahid). Email: wjulaihi@unimas.my ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07I http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.129

Expatriates also rely on job opportunities to survive in a foreign land. The contract for each expatriate ranges from three to five years, rendering it impossible to expect them to purchase the property. With respect to design, the boxy form of apartments of six units per floor of up to eight-storeys high is the typical utilitarian housing in Ajman. Instead, Dubai and Abu Dhabi have stylish architecture as compared to the new faces of apartments in Ajman that only cater to the increasing housing demand of the expatriates. Subsequently, the prices of the houses are unreasonably high and culturally inappropriate for the majority of Muslim workers from the Middle East and Pakistan. On the other hand, the economy in the coming years is uncertain and the demand for housing may fluctuate. Evidently, in 2018, the world economy in advanced countries is challenged with technological change and the complex impacts of globalization (Ali et al., 2020). Ironically, the developing countries show a reduction in poverty level and an increase in the middle-class population. These indicators may encourage the demand for goods and services across the world (Schwab, 2018). As a result, the improvement in their own country will lead them to leave Ajman and return to their mother's homeland. There is a possibility that the ambitious housing project in Ajman will be uninhabited.

6. CONCLUSION Ajman is pushed by urban changes. The possibility to gazette the land in the urban fringe is necessary in the long term for the development plan of Ajman. Ajman is expected to grow and expand through intensifying economic development to compete with Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah. Furthermore, the SZHP is fueled by economic benefits from the federal government. Thus, affordable housing for the Emirates is not a problem. Possibly, a well-structured land-use plan is needed to cater for the future growth and demand for housing in Ajman. The districts of each housing sector should be linked by public transport. Perhaps the new concepts of Transit Oriented Development and Smart Cities approach have to be integrated into the SZHP. Further to the long planning of housing in Ajman, the involvement of the private sectors must be tallied with the five-year development plan of UAE in the long-run as well as urban consolidation or containment of development has to be established by the municipality as soon as possible. This study is crucial to the future projection of housing in Ajman and the expansion of the conurbation of Sharjah, Umm Al Quinn and Ras Al Khaimah Emirates.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Ajman.

(2018). The official portal of the UAE Government. http://www.government.ae/en/about-the-uae/the-seven-emirates/ajman (Retrieved March 18).

Ali, H., Malik, A.M., Siddique, H.M.A., Rizwan, M. (2020). Impacts of Urbanization and Energy Consumption on Climate Change in Pakistan. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 11(4), 11A04S: 1-11. Cohen, M. (2004). Draft Report for Chapter 1 of the Global Report on Human Settlements 2005. New School Univ. New York.

J. Wahid, B. Saleh, M.S.A.Arar, J. Awad

Elsheshtawy, Y. (2009). Dubai: Behind an urban spectacle. Routledge, London, United Kingdom. Florida, R., (2016). A New Typology of Global Cities, Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, www.citylab.com/life/2016/10/the-seven-types-of-global-cities-brookings/502994 (Retrieved March 2018). Glaeser, E. L., Gyourko, J., & Saks, R. E. (2005). Urban growth and housing supply. Journal of economic geography, 6(1), 71-89. Golland, A., & Blake, R. (Eds.). (2004). Housing development: Theory, process and practice. Psychology Press, Routledge, London. Infrastructure and Vision 2021. (2018). The official portal of the UAE Government, Retrieved from http://www.government.ae/en/information-and-services/infrastructure/infrastructure-and-vision2021 (Retrieved March 2018). John, I. (2007). Sharjah rents are falling, that is why: The increase in affordable housing in Dubai is having a negative effect on rents in the Northern Emirates. Khaleej Times, Local Business, Marcadé, F. (2016). What is a job security in UAE for white collar expats from India? http://www.quora.com (Retrieved May 2018). Muhammad, A. (2017). The Influx of Migrant Workers in Dubai and Emirate Culture: Living in Dubai. Mudawana.com, (Retrieved June 2018). Schwab, K. (2018). The Global Competitiveness Report 2017–2018: World Economic Forum, Columbia University, USA. http://www3.weforum.org. (Retrieved May 2018). Wahid, J., Shah, AHH., & Sulehan, J., (2008). Urbanisation and Cultural Resilience in Newly Urbanized Communities, Sarawak Museum Journal, LXV(86). Professor Dr. Julaihi Wahid is Professor at the Department of Architecture, Faculty of Built Environment at University Malaysia Sarawak. Formerly he taught at Department of Architecture Engineering, College of Engineering at Ajman University, UAE. He received his PhD in Housing and Architecture at the University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, Newcastle, England, his M.Arch. (Community/Urban Design) from Kansas while B.Arch and BSc (Architectural Studies) from Washington, USA. His research encompasses Commercial Complexes and Mixed Development, Community and Urban Design and Housing Studies. Dr.Bassim Saleh is an Assistant Professor at Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, Ajman University. He received his M.Arch and PhD in Architecture from University of Strathclyde, Scotland, UK, his BSc. Architecture from University of Ain Shams, Cairo. He did Post Doctorate Research at University of Arizona, Tucson, USA. His research is Urban Design Pedagogy, Desert Architecture, Sustainable Architecture.

Dr.Arar is an Associate Professor at the Architectural Engineering Department, College of Engineering at Ajman University (AU). He completed his PhD study in Urban and Environmental Studies from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York, USA, his Master of Architecture from California State Polytechnic University, Los Angeles, California. Dr. Arar received two Undergraduate degrees: Bachelor of Architecture and Bachelor of City and Regional Planning from University of Louisiana, USA. Dr. Arar’s research focuses on Urban Planning and Design, Sustainability in Architectural and Urban Development, Architectural Design Development. Dr.Jihad Awad is an Associate Professor and the Head of Department at Architecture Engineering Department, College of Engineering at Ajman University. He receives his Dr. Ingr. in Architecture (Doctor in Architecture Engineering) from University of Stuttgart, Germany, his M. Arch. (Community/Urban Design) from Kansas, while his B.Sc. Arch. Engineering from Yarmouk University, Jordan. Dr.Jihad Awad’s research is Traditional Architecture and Heritage Conservation, Architecture of the Islamic World, Housing, Smart Cities.

*Corresponding author (J.Wahid). Email: wjulaihi@unimas.my ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07I http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07I.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.129

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07J

MAXIMUM EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS FOR A FINITE SAMPLE CASE 1

Gulfam Haider , Abdul Jabbar , Mudassar Rashid 1 2

School of Economics, International Islamic University Islamabad, PAKISTAN. Department of Economics, COMSATS University Islamabad, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 22 July 2019 Received in revised form 20 December 2019 Accepted 03 February 2020 Available online 14 February 2020

The study explored the implications of Maximum empirical likelihood (MEL) as an alternative approach to the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on a real economic model using finite samples. The literature frequently discussed that the MEL has good finite samples properties in contrast to GMM however, it has not been tested empirically. This study used the MEL approach to an economic model that has finite samples and endogeneity problems. For this purpose, the most famous economic model Keynesian consumption function is used using data of several countries with a small sample of thirty observations. The analysis found that elasticity estimated by MEL and GMM is significantly different and in some cases, the differences are drastically high. It is believed that such differences are due to poor finite sample properties of GMM. Thus, the study suggests that GMM provides biased and less efficient estimates in finite samples. Therefore, the researchers are recommended to use MEL rather than GMM to estimate economic models having a problem of endogeneity in a finite sample.

Keywords:

GMM; MEL; Entropy Maximization; Biasness; Endogeneity; Non-parametric approach; Information Theoretic Approach

1. INTRODUCTION Researchers often face the problem of endogeneity in the estimation of simultaneous Equation models. In the estimation of the general linear regression model, if the assumption of orthogonality condition is not satisfied then Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimates become biased. To deal with such issues, practitioners often use the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach as proposed by Hansen (1982). For instance, the determinant of the textile industry in Pakistan was examined by an exhausting GMM approach (Latif and Javid, 2016). Similarly, Kendix & Walls (2010) computed the impact of oil industry consolidation on the prices of refined products. Ngo (2006) compared the GMM with an instrumental variable approach to explore the linkage between *Corresponding author (M.Rashid). Tel:+92-3445088185. Email: mudassar.rashid@comsats.edu.pk

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07J http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.130

bank capital and profitability. The Maximum Likelihood approach is most commonly used in econometric modeling. It can be used only in the case when the probability distribution of the model is completely known. Though, the GMM approach does not require such conditions in the estimation of the econometric model. The GMM requires only a set of moment functions specifications according to the model. The GMM construct sample analogs of the population of orthogonality condition and set them close to zero. The Empirical Likelihood (EL) approach is advantageous than GMM for at least two reasons. First, the EL approach provides stable asymptotic bias with the increase in a number of moment restrictions while GMM does not. Second, the GMM estimator requires a two-step procedure with an efficient weight matrix while the EL approach internally handles the weight matrix within the estimation procedure (Judge and Mittelhammer, 2003). In other words, the MEL approach is a one-step estimation procedure as compared to the two-step GMM procedure that makes it free from the pre-estimation of the weight matrix. This one-step procedure makes EL a more efficient and less biased approach as compared to GMM in small samples. Since in real economic problems, the sample is small, therefore using GMM is such a scenario can provide misleading results. However, the Maximum empirical likelihood (MEL) approach is reported as more appropriate than GMM but still, authors often use GMM. It may be due to complex computation procedures and the non-existence of MEL software packages. Though, MEL is difficult to estimate but still possible to apply in a real economic model. Therefore, this study estimated a real economic problem i.e. consumption function using both GMM and MEL approach. The purpose of this research is to provide the foundations for the implementation of the MEL approach in real economic models. Furthermore, the results of GMM and MEL are also compared to explore the differences between the two estimation procedures. Thus, the primary contribution of this research is the implementation of the MEL approach as an alternative to GMM in real economic problems having a small sample.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW The asymptotic properties of the GMM estimator have great advantages in numerous settings. However, Newey & Smith, (2004) argued that the asymptotic bias in GMM may increase with the increase in a number of moment restrictions. Similarly, the finite sample properties of GMM are criticized. Several studies reported that GMM has poor finite samples properties (Altonji and Segal, 1996; Hall and Horowitz, 1996; Pagan and Robertson, 1997). The authors studied the finite sample properties of GMM and found they are very different from asymptotic properties (Hansen et al., 1996). They examined the properties of GMM with three different methods based on the weight matrix to differentiate these estimators. In the first method, they used the identity matrix as a weighted matrix. The second way, they calculated the Iterative weight matrix where the weight matrix is continuously updating until the convergence of the parameters. The third method is a continuous updating estimator where the weight matrix is repeatedly adjusted with parameter changing in the minimization of the quadratic function. Hansen et al. (1996) argued that the properties of the small samples of GMM depend upon an efficient weight matrix. GMM requires pre-estimation of the weight matrix that makes it a two-step estimator. Since we have less

Gulfam Haider, Abdul Jabbar, Mudassar Rashid

information available due to the small sample, therefore GMM may estimate a less efficient weight matrix that ultimately affects its efficiency and biasness. Thus, there is a need for some alternative approach having good finite sample properties and stable asymptotic bias. In contrast, Owen (1988) proposed MEL as an alternative approach that improved the inference in econometric literature. Moreover, Various authors extended the use of the MEL approach to estimate generalized linear models (Kolaczyk, 1994; Owen, 1991; Qin & Lawless, 1994). Afterward, Chen and Keilegom (2009) used the MEL approach to construct the inference of the regression model. Judge and Mittelhammer (2011) used the MEL approach to estimate the regression model having an endogeneity problem. According to the authors, the MEL approach can be used when the parametric functional form for the likelihood function is not available. Therefore, it is also known as the Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood (NPML). The various studies examined the properties of the finite samples of the MEL approach and reported the MEL approach is less biased than the GMM estimator (Imbens and Spady, 2002; Kitamura, 2001; Newey and Smith, 2004). Particularly, Imbens (1997) compared the MEL approach with standard GMM (Hansen, 1982) and iterative GMM (Hansen et al. 1996) estimator and suggested that the MEL approach is superior to GMM in finite samples.

3. METHOD The main objective of this study is to implement the Empirical likelihood approach on the economic model that does not satisfy the condition of orthogonality and cause simultaneous biasness, especially for small samples. For this purpose, we have selected the consumption function proposed by Keynes (1936), also known as the Absolute Income Hypothesis (AIH). The structural form of the consumption function is đ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; = đ?&#x2019;&#x201A;đ?&#x2019;&#x201A; + đ?&#x2019;&#x192;đ?&#x2019;&#x192; đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; + đ?&#x153;şđ?&#x153;şđ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;

(1),

đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; = đ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; + đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;

(2).

Equation (1) is known as the Keynesian consumption function. The term đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is householdâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s consumption, đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is per capita income and đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is the investment đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; and đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? are intercept and slope respectively. Since, in aggregate demand function given in Equation (2), the coefficient of the consumption and investment are equal to unity therefore there is no need to estimate Equation (2) (Thomas, 1993). The endogeneity problem can be described by a reduced form as đ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; =

đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; =

đ?&#x2019;&#x201A;đ?&#x2019;&#x201A;

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??&#x203A;đ??&#x203A; đ?&#x2019;&#x201A;đ?&#x2019;&#x201A;

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??&#x203A;đ??&#x203A;

đ??&#x203A;đ??&#x203A;

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??&#x203A;đ??&#x203A; đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??&#x203A;đ??&#x203A;

đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2019;&#x2022;đ?&#x2019;&#x2022; +

đ?&#x203A;&#x2020;đ?&#x203A;&#x2020;đ??đ??

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??&#x203A;đ??&#x203A; đ?&#x203A;&#x2020;đ?&#x203A;&#x2020;đ??đ??

đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??&#x203A;đ??&#x203A;

(3) (4)

The reduced form of consumption system in Equations (3) and (4) shows that consumption and income are correlated with disturbance term Îľt that is the indication of the endogeneity problem. We could not estimate the consumption function 1 directly by the OLS technique because it will produce *Corresponding author (M.Rashid). Tel:+92-3445088185. Email: mudassar.rashid@comsats.edu.pk

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07J http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.130

biased estimates. To estimate Equation (1), we require instrumental variables to resolve the endogeneity issue, therefore, investment: Inv and Government expenditure: G (Keynes (1936) discussed that the government expenditures are exogenously determined) are appropriate instrumental variables. The Instrumental variables matrix (Z) is đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122; = [ constant Investment Government expenditures] = [đ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;? đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;° đ?&#x2018;Žđ?&#x2018;Ž]

This system of Equations has simultaneity bias, therefore Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator is not suitable to estimate this model. As an alternative, most authors applied the GMM estimator to such kind of models. However, GMM does not hold good finite sample properties reported by numerous authors (Imbens & Spady, 2002; Imbens, 1997; Kitamura, 2001; Newey & Smith, 2004) in literature. Conversely, the MEL approach holds good finite sample properties and can be used to estimate economic models having the problem of simultaneity bias. This study applied the MEL approach to estimate the consumption function and compared its results with GMM. The consumption function data is collected from the International Financial Statistics (IFS) database. The analysis is conducted for 18 different (developing and developed) countries and the sample size is taken 30 to fulfill the condition of the small samples. In consumption function, the slope coefficient of income is known as the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), with 0 < MPC < 1 in absolute measures. Therefore, we have used the log transformation where the coefficient of income is known as elasticity of consumption with respect to income. The log transformation may avoid the problem of Heteroskedasticity. To explore the computation method of both GMM and MEL approach, let us assume a model đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC; = đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; + đ?&#x203A;&#x153;đ?&#x203A;&#x153;

(5),

đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?1 Îľ1 1 đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź1 â&#x17D;Ą â&#x17D;¤ â&#x17D;ĄÎľ â&#x17D;¤ â&#x17D;Ąđ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?2 â&#x17D;¤ đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź 2 đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; â&#x17D;˘1 â&#x17D;Ľ â&#x17D;˘ 2â&#x17D;Ľ , đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; = [đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°] = â&#x17D;˘1 đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź3 â&#x17D;Ľ , đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192; = ďż˝ ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x203A;&#x153;đ?&#x203A;&#x153; = â&#x17D;˘Îľ3 â&#x17D;Ľ . Where Y = [đ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Şđ?&#x2018;Ş] = â&#x17D;˘â&#x17D;˘đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?3 â&#x17D;Ľâ&#x17D;Ľ đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? 2Ă&#x2014;1 â&#x2039;Ž â&#x17D;Ľ â&#x17D;˘ â&#x2039;Ž â&#x17D;Ľ â&#x17D;˘ â&#x2039;Ž â&#x17D;Ľ â&#x17D;˘â&#x2039;Ž đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? â&#x17D;Ł â&#x17D;Ł Îľđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x17D;Śđ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?Ă&#x2014;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x17D;Śđ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?Ă&#x2014;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? â&#x17D;Ł1 đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x17D;Śđ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?Ă&#x2014;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

This model represents the consumption function in Equation (1). On the other hand, the instrumental variables matrix is 1 â&#x17D;Ą â&#x17D;˘1 đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122; = [đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;°đ?&#x2018;° đ?&#x2018;Žđ?&#x2018;Ž] = â&#x17D;˘1 â&#x17D;˘â&#x2039;Ž â&#x17D;Ł1

đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź1 đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź2 đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź3 â&#x2039;Ž đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

đ??şđ??ş1 đ??şđ??ş2 â&#x17D;¤ â&#x17D;Ľ đ??şđ??ş3 â&#x17D;Ľ . â&#x2039;Žâ&#x17D;Ľ đ??şđ??şđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x17D;Śđ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;?Ă&#x2014;đ?&#x;&#x2018;đ?&#x;&#x2018;

The GMM approach is used when the moment conditions are greater than the number of parameters proposed as by (Hansen, 1982). The GMM estimator is defined as ďż˝đ??&#x2020;đ??&#x2020;đ??&#x2020;đ??&#x2020;đ??&#x2020;đ??&#x2020; = [đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014;â&#x20AC;˛ đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122; đ??&#x2013;đ??&#x2013; đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014;]â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014;â&#x20AC;˛ đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122; đ??&#x2013;đ??&#x2013; đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC; đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;

Gulfam Haider, Abdul Jabbar, Mudassar Rashid

(6).

According to Hansen (1982), the weight matrix â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Wâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; is equal to the inverse of the covariance of Specifically, the weight matrix can be described as

(Z â&#x20AC;˛ Ďľ).

đ??&#x2013;đ??&#x2013; = (đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ Ď&#x192;2 đ??&#x2C6;đ??&#x2C6; đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;)â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? = (Ď&#x192;2 đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;)â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

(7).

Though various studies have used GMM to estimate such economic problems, GMM is often criticized due to its poor finite sample characteristics. Various authors have documented that GMM is a good estimator for a large sample but provides biased estimations for a small sample. It is also notable that researchers often have small sample in estimating real economic problems. Therefore, it is desirable to use some other estimator holding good finite sample properties to solve economic problems, especially with a small sample. Judge and Mittelhammer (2011) argued that MEL is one of the estimators having such properties. Various studies have used the MEL approach to estimate linear regression models (Kolaczyk, 1994; Owen, 1991; Judge and Mittelhammer, 2011). The computation procedure of the MEL approach is provided in the following section.

3.1 MAXIMUM EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD (MEL) APPROACH Judge and Mittelhammer (2011) used MEL approach when the orthogonal condition does not hold (i.e. E(đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014;â&#x20AC;˛ đ?&#x203A;&#x153;đ?&#x203A;&#x153;) â&#x2030; 0). The authors used instrumental variables which satisfy the condition of (E(đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ đ?&#x203A;&#x153;đ?&#x203A;&#x153;) = 0), accordingly the moment Equation is E ďż˝đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,.]ďż˝đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,.]đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;ďż˝ďż˝ = 0

(8).

Judge and Mittelhammer, (2011) applied MEL approach to resolve the problem of endogeneity with instrumental variables is given as

subject to

max đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? [nâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;1 â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? ln(đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; ) â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; = đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? & â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; ďż˝đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]ďż˝đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;ďż˝ďż˝ = đ?&#x;&#x17D;đ?&#x;&#x17D;

(9).

The MEL function with Lagrange constraint is as follows

đ??Ľđ??Ľđ??Ľđ??Ľďż˝ đ??&#x2039;đ??&#x2039;đ??&#x201E;đ??&#x201E;đ??&#x201E;đ??&#x201E; (đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;; đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;, đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014;, đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;)ďż˝ = đ??§đ??§â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ??Ľđ??Ľđ??Ľđ??Ľ(đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; ) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;?đ?&#x203A;?(â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?(đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; ) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152;â&#x20AC;˛ â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; ďż˝đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.] ďż˝đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.] đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;ďż˝ďż˝

(10)

Where đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;(đ??§đ??§Ă&#x2014;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?) , đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; (đ??§đ??§Ă&#x2014;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?) , đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;(đ??§đ??§Ă&#x2014; đ?&#x;&#x2018;đ?&#x;&#x2018;) đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;(đ??¤đ??¤Ă&#x2014;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?)and đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152;(đ??¤đ??¤ Ă&#x2014; đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?). The đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; > 0 â&#x2C6;&#x20AC; đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; is an implicit structure in the

MEL function.

The first order optimization condition with respect to pđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; , đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152; and đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192; is as follows: đ?&#x161;żđ?&#x161;żđ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018; = đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ??˘đ??˘ (đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;, đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152;) = (đ??§đ??§đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152;â&#x20AC;˛ ďż˝đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]ďż˝đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;ďż˝ďż˝ + đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?)â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

đ?&#x153;łđ?&#x153;łđ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152; = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; ďż˝đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]ďż˝đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;ďż˝ďż˝ = đ?&#x;&#x17D;đ?&#x;&#x17D;

*Corresponding author (M.Rashid). Tel:+92-3445088185. Email: mudassar.rashid@comsats.edu.pk

(11), (12),

đ?&#x161;żđ?&#x161;żđ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192; = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; ďż˝â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152;â&#x20AC;˛ đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]ďż˝ = đ?&#x;&#x17D;đ?&#x;&#x17D;

(13).

We restrict Equations (12) and (13) by putting the optimal value of đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x2018;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; obtain from Equation (11) and then đ?&#x161;żđ?&#x161;żđ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152; = đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152;(đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;) = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?(đ??§đ??§đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152;â&#x20AC;˛ ďż˝đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]ďż˝đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;ďż˝ďż˝ + đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?)â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? ďż˝đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]ďż˝đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;ďż˝ďż˝ = đ?&#x;&#x17D;đ?&#x;&#x17D; (14) â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

đ?&#x153;łđ?&#x153;łđ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192; = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ??§đ??§đ??˘đ??˘=đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? ďż˝đ??§đ??§ ďż˝ďż˝đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]ďż˝đ??&#x2DC;đ??&#x2DC;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]đ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192;ďż˝ďż˝ + đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?ďż˝ďż˝

ďż˝â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152;â&#x20AC;˛ đ??&#x2122;đ??&#x2122;â&#x20AC;˛ [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]đ??&#x2014;đ??&#x2014; [đ?&#x2019;&#x160;đ?&#x2019;&#x160;,.]ďż˝ = đ?&#x;&#x17D;đ?&#x;&#x17D;

(15).

The mathematical expression Îť(Î˛) in Equation (14) is an implicit function of Î˛, it cannot be specified in closed form (Judge & Mittelhammer, 2011). The probability weights đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; in Equation 11 that must be satisfied with the condition of 0 â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2030;¤ 1 which demonstrate that the values of the vectors of the coefficient of constraints Îť and the parameters Î˛ principally fulfill the condition

[(Îťâ&#x20AC;˛ ďż˝Z â&#x20AC;˛ (Y â&#x2C6;&#x2019; XÎ˛)ďż˝ + 1 ) > 1/đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;] for each observation đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; (Qin and Lawless, 1994). To estimate the

MEL problem, Equations 14 and 15 can be solved both; sequentially and simultaneously by using the Newton-Raphson algorithm. đ?&#x203A;&#x20AC;đ?&#x203A;&#x20AC; = đ?&#x161;żđ?&#x161;żđ?&#x203A;&#x152;đ?&#x203A;&#x152; đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;? + đ?&#x161;żđ?&#x161;żđ?&#x203A;&#x192;đ?&#x203A;&#x192; đ?&#x;?đ?&#x;?

(16).

Equation 16, đ?&#x203A;&#x20AC;đ?&#x203A;&#x20AC; can be optimized numerically (minimize the squared Euclidean norm for necessary conditions) by using Equations 14 and 15. The MEL problem can be solved by the sequential procedure as, where first 14 is solved for đ??&#x20AC;đ??&#x20AC; for a given value of đ?&#x153;ˇđ?&#x153;ˇ (initial guess 0 as the starting point of đ?&#x153;ˇđ?&#x153;ˇ) and then solve 15 for đ?&#x153;ˇđ?&#x153;ˇ at given the previous value of đ??&#x20AC;đ??&#x20AC; to minimize the square Euclidean norm. We continue the process until the convergence achieves. We have used the linear transformation discussed in (Mittelhammer et al., 2000; Qin & Lawless, 1994) to transform the overdetermined model to just a determined model that can estimate the unique values of unknown parameters of one step MEL approach.

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION In this section, we have reported the results and their interpretation of the analysis. All coefficients shown in table 1 are from the results of consumption function estimated by GMM and MEL approach for several countries. The results of MEL and GMM to estimate consumption function are provided in Table 1. In this Table, Îą represents the intercept while Î˛ is the measurement of the elasticity of consumption with respect to income. Values given in parenthesis are the t-statistics. The results of MEL are showing that the impact on income on consumption is significant for all countries except in the case of Germany. The t-statistics of consumption in the case of Germany is 1.6301 showing insignificant effect. Conversely, the highest value of t-statistics (34.1184) of b is found in the case of Hungary. Results of MEL also showed that the elasticity of consumption w.r.t income ranges from 0.7929 (China) to 1.1101 (Denmark).

Gulfam Haider, Abdul Jabbar, Mudassar Rashid

Table 1: Result of Consumption Function Estimated by GMM and MEL Countries Sri Lanka Spain Pakistan Norway Italy Ireland India Hungary Greece Germany France Finland Fiji Egypt Denmark Hong Kong China Canada

Ln (Consumption) = Îą + Î˛ Ln (Income)+ e Maximum Empirical Likelihood (MEL) Estimates Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Estimates R2 R2 đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źďż˝ đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źďż˝ đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝Ě&#x201A; đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝Ě&#x201A; 0.9410 0.9074 0.2504 0.9583 (0.6997) (9.1952) 0.999 (0.1259 (6.4337) 0.999 0.7457 0.8789 -0.1728 0.9703 (0.3760) (4.6004) 0.997 (-0.1090) (6.0925) 0.999 0.4632 0.9020 -0.2146 0.9906 (0.3635) (5.1949) 0.992 (-0.1815) (6.2893) 0.998 0.2837 0.8464 -0.1718 0.9153 (0.1896) (4.0184) 0.998 (-0.0795) (2.9167) 0.998 -0.5071 0.9949 -0.4995 0.9938 (-1.2651) (16.9601) 0.999 (-0.5104) (6.4026) 0.999 0.4267 0.9031 0.0733 0.9404 (0.4622) (9.5402) 0.998 (0.0472) (5.7164) 0.999 0.8146 0.8660 0.1028 0.9418 (0.5591) (5.7388) 0.996 (0.0697) (5.9166) 0.999 -0.6312 1.0231 -0.5898 1.0184 (-2.5723) (34.1184) 0.999 (-0.4824) (7.1307) 0.998 -0.6391 1.0250 -0.6324 1.0243 (-1.5393) (19.8596) 0.999 (-0.5788) (8.3178) 0.999 0.7255 0.8206 -0.9732 1.0493 (0.1923) (1.6301) 0.985 (-0.3805) (3.0747) 0.999 0.3264 0.8926 -0.4848 0.9913 (0.1965) (4.5497) 0.990 (-0.2602) (4.3434) 0.999 -0.5406 0.9823 -0.5330 0.9810 (-2.9108) (27.7550) 0.999 (-0.4287) (4.4161) 0.999 0.4281 0.8780 0.3976 0.8821 (0.3051) (4.7293) 0.988 (0.1750) (2.9465) 0.988 0.5412 0.9249 -0.7116 1.0315 (0.2144) (4.4769) 0.998 (-0.3941) (6.8427) 0.999 0.3810 1.1101 1.6114 0.8731 (0.1315) (2.0263) 0.993 (0.7497) (2.1317) 0.998 0.5022 1.0677 0.5257 1.0632 (0.2828) (3.1828) 0.992 (0.3952) (4.2049) 0.992 0.9694 0.7929 -0.1116 0.9187 (0.4358) (3.2017) 0.979 (-0.0970) (6.7383) 0.998 0.0911 0.9067 -0.5973 1.0050 (0.0558) (3.7276) 0.998 (-0.2244) (2.5231) 0.999

*Authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s calculation **t-values in the parenthesis

In most cases, the elasticity is around 90%. This indicates that in most cases consumption is less sensitive to income. However, the Î˛ four countries are more than 1 indicating more sensitivity of consumption towards income. The MEL R2 for all the countries is around 99%. On the other hand, the results of GMM showed significance Î˛ for all the countries. The t-statistics of Î˛ range from 2.13 (Denmark) to 8.32 (Greece). In most cases, t-statistics is around 6. Similarly, the Î˛â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s of all the countries range from 0.87 (Denmark) to 1.063 (Hong Kong). The results of GMM also showed that Î˛â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s of most of the countries is around 1. Six countries are showing Î˛ greater than 1 in the case of GMM. Similarly, only two countries have the elasticities of less than 0.90. At last, the R2 of GMM for all the countries is around 99%. Comparing the results of MEL and GMM can provide some useful implications. A comparison of Î˛ estimated by MEL and GMM for all the countries are in Figure 1. Results show that in most cases *Corresponding author (M.Rashid). Tel:+92-3445088185. Email: mudassar.rashid@comsats.edu.pk

elasticity of MEL and GMM are near to 0.90 and 1 respectively. This shows that the estimation of MEL is different from GMM. Figure 1 shows that MEL and GMM estimated similar is in the case of six countries i.e. Fiji, Finland, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungry and Italy. For other countries, both the estimators provided different results. It is found that the elasticity of Denmark (0.8731) by GMM is minimum while the same country showed the highest elasticity (1.1101) when the MEL estimation method is applied. Even in the case of Denmark and Germany the differences are high. Various studies reported that the MEL approach is less biased than the GMM estimator (Imbens and Spady, 2002; Kitamura, 2001; Newey and Smith, 2004). Therefore, the results of this study show that the estimates of the MEL approach are very different from GMM estimators due to its good small sample properties.

Figure 1: Estimator and estimates of endogenous regressor. Similarly, Figure 2 compares the t-statistics computed by MEL and GMM. The graph is showing that MEL estimated very high t-statistics as compared to GMM in the case of Finland, Greece, Hungry, Ireland and Italy. However, in the case of Germany, Hong Kong, and China the estimation of t-statistics by MEL is less than GMM. It is also notable that for Germany, the t-statistics estimated by GMM is 3.0747 (significant) while the same statistic estimated by MEL is 1.6301 (insignificant).

Figure 2: Estimators and significance with t-statistics.

Gulfam Haider, Abdul Jabbar, Mudassar Rashid

These results and arguments are alluding towards the superiority of MEL over GMM in a small sample. Imbens (1997) compared the MEL approach with the standard GMM approach and found that the MEL approach has the least bias and lower MSE than GMM.

5. CONCLUSION This study explored the implications of MEL and GMM in estimating a real economic problem. The Keynesian consumption function was selected due to the existence of the endogeneity problem and having a finite sample. The literature shows that GMM has poor finite sample properties whereas MEL assumed to be superior then GMM. This study primarily compared the results of MEL with GMM. Based on analysis; the study concluded that elasticities estimated by MEL and GMM are significantly different and in some of the cases differences are drastically high. This study also finds that in most of the cases both MEL and GMM estimates showed highly different t-statistics. Both estimators showed the same level of goodness of fit however there are differences in standard errors of parameters estimated by MEL and GMM. It is believed that such differences are due to poor finite sample properties of GMM. Thus, the study suggests that GMM provides biased and less efficient estimates in finite samples. Therefore, it is highly recommended to use MEL rather than GMM to estimate economic models having an endogeneity problem in a finite sample to obtain the best estimates.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Altonji, J. G., & Segal, L. M. (1996). Small-Sample Bias in GMM Estimation of Covariance Structures. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(3), 353–366. DOI: 10.1080/07350015.1996.10524661 Charemza, W., Deadman, D. F. (1997). New Directions in Econometric Practice (Second). E. Elgar Publishing. http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/new-directions-in-econometric-practice-second-edition Chen, S. X., & Keilegom, I. Van. (2009). A review on empirical likelihood methods for regression. TEST, 18(3), 415–447. DOI: 10.1007/s11749-009-0159-5 Feige, E. L. (1967). Expectations and adjustments in the monetary sector. The American Economic Review, 57(2), 462–473. Friedman, M. (1956). Quantity theory of money. Money, 1-40, Palgrave Macmillan, London. Hall,

P., & Horowitz, J. L. (1996). Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators. Econometrica, 64(4), 891–916. DOI: 10.2307/2171849

Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators. Econometrica, 50(4), 1029–1054. DOI: 10.2307/1912775 Hansen, L. P., Heaton, J., & Yaron, A. (1996). Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(3), 262–280. DOI: 10.1080/07350015.1996.10524656 *Corresponding author (M.Rashid). Tel:+92-3445088185. Email: mudassar.rashid@comsats.edu.pk

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07J http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.130

Hsing, Y., & Jamal, A. M. M. (2013). A Simultaneous-Equation Model of Money Demand and Money Supply for Canada. Modern Economy, 4(1), 32–36. Imbens, G., Johnson, P., & Spady, R. (1998). Information Theoretic Approaches to Inference in Moment Condition Models. Econometrica, 66(2), 333–358. Imbens, G. W. (1997). One-Step Estimators for Over-Identified Generalized Method of Moments Models. The Review of Economic Studies, 64(3), 359–383. Imbens, G. W., & Spady, R. (2002). Confidence intervals in generalized method of moments models. Journal of Econometrics, 107(1–2), 87–98. Judge, G. G., & Mittelhammer, R. C. (2011). An Information-Theoretic Approach to Econometrics. Cambridge University Press. Kendix, M., & Walls, W. D. (2010). Oil industry consolidation and refined product prices: Evidence from US wholesale gasoline terminals. Energy Policy, 38(7), 3498–3507. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of money, interest and employment. London: Macmillan. Kitamura, Y. (2001). Asymptotic Optimality of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Moment Restrictions. Econometrica, 69(6), 1661–1672. Kitamura, Y., & Stutzer, M. (1997). An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation. Econometrica, 65(4), 861–874. Kolaczyk, E.D. (1994). Empirical likelihood for generalized linear models. Statistica Sinica, 4, 199-218. Latif, R., & Javid, A. Y. (2016). The Determinants of Pakistan Exports of Textile: An Integrated Demand and Supply Approach. The Pakistan Development Review, 55(3), 191–210. DOI: 10.30541/v55i3pp.191-210 Judge, G., & Mittelhammer, R. (2003). Finite Sample Performance of the Empirical Likelihood Estimator under Endogeneity. In Computer-Aided Econometrics. CRC Press. DOI: 10.1201/9780203911570.ch6 Mittelhammer, R. C., Judge, G. G., & Miller, D. J. (2000). Econometric Foundations. Cambridge University Press. Newey, W., & Smith, R. J. (2004). Higher-Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators. Econometrica, 72(1), 219–255. Newey, W. K., Ramalho, J. J., & Smith, R. J. (2005). Asymptotic bias for GMM and GEL estimators with estimated nuisance parameters. Identification and Inference in Econometric Models: Essays in Honor of Thomas J. Rothenberg, 245-281. Ngo, P. T. H., & others. (2006). Endogenous Capital and Profitability in Banking (No. 464). Retrieved from http://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp464.pdf Owen, A. (1991). Empirical Likelihood for Linear Models. The Annals of Statistics, 19(4), 1725–1747. DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176348368 Owen, A. (1988). Empirical likelihood ratio confidence intervals for a single functional. Biometrika, 75(2), 237-249. DOI: 10.1093/biomet/75.2.237 Pagan, A. R., & Robertson, J. (1997). GMM and its Problems. Qin, J., & Lawless, J. (1994). Empirical Likelihood and General Estimating Equation s. The Annals of Statistics, 22(1), 300–325. DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176325370 Thomas, R. L. (1993). Introductory econometrics. Addison-Wesley Longman Limited.

Gulfam Haider, Abdul Jabbar, Mudassar Rashid

Tobin, J. (1958). Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk. The Review of Economic Studies, 25(2), 65–86. DOI: 10.2307/2296205 Gulfam Haider is a student at School of Economics, International Islamic Institute of Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan. He got his Bachelor’s degree in Economics. His researches are in the area of Theoretical Econometrics and Applied Econometrics.

Dr. Abdul Jabbar is an Assistant Professor at School of Economics, School of Economics, International Islamic Institute of Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan. He got his PhD in Economics from Ohio University, United States. His research focuses on Applied Macroeconomics and Applied Econometrics. Dr. Mudassar Rashid is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics, COMSATS University, Islamabad Pakistan. He has a Doctoral degree in Econometrics. His research interests are Applied Econometrics, Climate, Health Economics and Data Science.

*Corresponding author (M.Rashid). Tel:+92-3445088185. Email: mudassar.rashid@comsats.edu.pk

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07J http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07J.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.130

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07K

OPTIMAL CONTROL AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF TUBERCULOSIS MODEL WITH FAST AND SLOW PROGRESSION Rabiu Aliyu Abdulkadir 1, Parvaneh Esmaili

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Near East University, Nicosia, North Cyprus, TURKEY.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 01 October 2019 Received in revised form 24 December 2019 Accepted 29 January 2020 Available online 14 February 2020

Designing feasible and cost-effective control interventions for the eradication of epidemic diseases is a daunting task. Mathematical modelling and control system theory provide efficient tools that can be employed to analyse and understand the dynamics of the disease and its control. Nevertheless, finding optimal control strategies for epidemic models is cumbersome, owing to the stringent need for balancing the Keywords: dissenting demands of the control goal and minimising the cost of Epidemic model; Cost-effectiveness ratio implementing the control actions. This study proposed the application of optimal control theory to a Tuberculosis (TB) model with slow and fast (ICER); Pontryagin progression, seeking to reduce or eliminate the prevalence of TB and Maximum Principle minimise the cost of implementation of the control. The optimal controls (PMP); Optimization control; Cost analysis; are characterised using the Pontryagin maximum principle and solved numerically. Moreover, a cost-effectiveness analysis is performed by Disease control using an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The results indicated strategy; Epidemic numerical simulations. that disease control policy that combined vaccine, case finding and case holding interventions would successfully curtail the prevalence of TB. Disciplinary: Epidemiology, Biocomputing, Medical Science (Public Health). ©2020 INT TRANS J ENG MANAG SCI TECH.

1. INTRODUCTION Over the decades, epidemic diseases have been a leading cause of billions of deaths. For this purpose, the entire world is making an effort to avoid the outbreak of the disease, such as the new Corona Covid19 pandemic. Improving public health is among the priority of the united nation’s 2030 sustainable development goals (SDGs) (UN, 2019). Tuberculosis, also known as TB is one of the world’s life-threatening diseases, with over 10 million cases of infection as of 2018, and an estimate of 1.2 million incidences of death among the infected population. SDG goal 3.3 contains a plan to end the TB epidemic by 2030 (WHO, 2019). TB *Corresponding author (Parvaneh Esmaili). Email: parvaneh.esmaili@neu.edu.tr ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07K http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.131

disease usually starts in the body of a susceptible person with infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) (Jumbo et al., 2013). The transmission of the disease is mostly through air breath between healthy and infected individuals. Common symptoms of TB include fever, weight loss and coughing blood (Baba et al., 2019). TB can also be contracted through co-infection with other diseases such as HIV (WHO, 2015). The understanding of TB epidemiology is cumbersome, which makes the design and implementation of control measures complicated (Nematollahi et al. 2020). The frequently used method for the treatment of TB includes vaccination of the susceptible individuals to prevent infection and further spread of the disease; treatment of latently infected individuals through â&#x20AC;&#x153;case findingâ&#x20AC;? to avoid reactivation and treatment of the patient with active TB through â&#x20AC;&#x153;case holdingâ&#x20AC;? to guarantee adherence to treatment (Gomes et al., 2007). Mathematical modelling and control system theory provide efficient tools that can be employed to analyse and understand the dynamics of the disease and its control. Also, to access the performance and cost-effectiveness of several control strategies employed in eradicating the diseases (Metcalf et al., 2015; Xin et al., 2019; Zaman et al., 2017). In this regard, a large number of mathematical models have been proposed in the literature (Chalub & Souza, 2011; Giamberardino & Iacoviello, 2018; Heesterbeek et al., 2015; Li, 2015; Matthew & Keeling, 2008; Metcalf et al. 2015; Zhang & Zhou, 2012). However, modelling and control of epidemic diseases like other natural phenomena are quite challenging. Developing reliable control algorithm for epidemic models is cumbersome due to the inherent non-linearity, system complexity, modelling uncertainties, parameter variations. Moreover, finding optimal control strategies for epidemic models is cumbersome, owing to the stringent need for balancing the dissenting demands of the control goal and minimising the cost of implementing the control actions. (Bather et al., 1976). In 2006, Mccluskey (2006) introduced a nonlinear TB model, considering the fact that TB transmission exhibit slow and fast progression from susceptible to infected class. The system uses SEI compartmental epidemic model as đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

(1),

đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

where the population is separated into three compartments depending on the epidemiological status: individuals that are healthy but can contract the disease categorised as susceptible class đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), exposed class đ??¸đ??¸(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) containing individuals that have been in contact with the infected class but did not yet show any symptoms and the infectious class đ??źđ??ź(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) representing the individuals with active TB. It is assumed that the rate of the disease transmission to susceptible individuals is bilinear đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝, with a fraction đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? undergoing fast progression to the infectious compartment, and the remaining (1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?)

exhibiting slow progress into the exposed class. It is considered that the time taken by the exposed individuals to move to the infectious class follows an exponential distribution, with average waiting time 1â &#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; . The exposed class is assumed to have latent TB which can be cured and removed upon receiving adequate treatment; else they will progress to the infectious class. The system parameters, along with their meanings, are summarized in Table 1.

Rabiu Aliyu Abdulkadir, Parvaneh Esmaili

Table 1: Parameter description as presented in (Mccluskey, 2006) Parameter Symbol đ?&#x203A;Źđ?&#x203A;Ź Âľ d đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;

Parameter description Overall recruitment into a susceptible compartment Natural death rate Disease induced death rate Disease transmission coefficient A fraction of newly infected individuals that exhibit fast progression to infectious compartment The rate at which exposed individuals moved to the infectious compartment

For model (1) using the concept of a next-generation matrix (Brauer, 2017), the basic reproduction number was found to be â&#x201E;&#x203A;0 =

Î&#x203A;đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝(đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;+đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?)

đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;(đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;+đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;)(đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;+đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;)

(2).

They showed and proved that the disease would be eradicated by itself if â&#x201E;&#x203A;0 < 1 and linger otherwise. Based on that, the basic reproduction number, â&#x201E;&#x203A;0 , helps in understanding the dynamics of the disease and can be used to recommend or plan TB control programs. Nevertheless, they did not examine time-dependent control strategies and cost-effectiveness of the control methods, since their study had been focused on the global stability analysis and prevalence of TB at equilibria. The current study explores the potential application of optimal control theory and cost-effectiveness analysis on a TB model with slow and fast progression. Hence, the research aimed at finding the most suitable and cost-effective control interventions for the eradication of the TB epidemic. The optimal control analysis is based on the indirect application of Pontryaginâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s maximum principle, and the cost-effective analysis is expressed through the use of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

2. OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEM This section described the optimal control system for the SEI model of TB transmission with fast and slow progression studied in Mccluskey (2006). The optimal control theory is applied along with time-dependent controls to identify the best control strategies under which the TB could be controlled or eliminated. Three control interventions đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) and đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) are incorporated into the system model (1). The control đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), denote the vaccination given to a fraction of the susceptible individuals to provide them with immunity from the disease. The control đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), denotes a â&#x20AC;&#x153;case findingâ&#x20AC;? control effort that is applied to identify and cure a fraction of exposed populations, to minimise the rate of migration from the exposed compartment to infectious. And finally, â&#x20AC;&#x153;case holding controlâ&#x20AC;? đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), signifies the control effort that ensures the effective treatment of the infected. The optimal controls đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) and đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) are assumed to be bounded, integrable, Lesbesgue functions with values in the closed set [0,1]. By employing similar parameters as in model (1), the optimal control model can be written as

*Corresponding author (Parvaneh Esmaili). Email: parvaneh.esmaili@neu.edu.tr ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07K http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.131

đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

(3),

with a set of system state variables đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) = ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), đ??¸đ??¸ (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)ďż˝ and the objective functional to be minimised, defined as

đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

đ??˝đ??˝(đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 ) = â&#x2C6;Ť0 đ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 đ??¸đ??¸ (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) + đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2 đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) +

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤1 2

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘12 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) +

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤2 2

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘22 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) +

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤3 2

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘32 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

(4).

The main objective is to reduce or eliminate the prevalence of TB in both the latent and active classes, also minimise the cost of implementation of the control actions. As indicated in (4), the total cost of the control includes the disease-induced cost and the cost of vaccination and control interventions. It is assumed that the cost of the interventions is nonlinear and quadratic, as in (Baba et al., 2019; Gao & Huang, 2018). The positive coefficients đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 , đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2 , đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤1 , đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤2 and đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤3 are nonnegative weights related to the exposed population, infected population and control measures, respectively. The problem is to find the optimal controls đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2â&#x2C6;&#x2014; and đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3â&#x2C6;&#x2014; along with an equivalent set of state variables đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; = (đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ??¸đ??¸ â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ??źđ??ź â&#x2C6;&#x2014; ) over the fixed time interval ďż˝0, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ďż˝ , that minimises the objective

functional (5) subject to the control systems dynamic constraints (3) as:

with

đ??˝đ??˝(đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2â&#x2C6;&#x2014; ) = minÎ¨ đ??˝đ??˝(đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 )

(5),

Î¨ = ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;1.1 ďż˝ďż˝0, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ďż˝; â&#x201E;?3 ďż˝, (đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 ) â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ??żđ??ż1 ďż˝ďż˝0, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ďż˝; â&#x201E;?ďż˝ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;(0) â&#x2030;Ľ 0, đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; (3) đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; ďż˝

3. OPTIMAL CONTROL ANALYSIS

3.1 EXISTENCE OF THE OPTIMAL CONTROL

Theorem 1. There exist optimal controls đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2â&#x2C6;&#x2014; đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3â&#x2C6;&#x2014; and associated optimal solution, đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ??¸đ??¸ â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ??źđ??ź â&#x2C6;&#x2014; to the problem (5).

Proof: This theorem can be proved by adopting the conditions stated in Theorem 4.1 and Corollary 4.1 from Bather et al. (1976) and verifying the nontrivial conditions. Let đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝

represent the right-hand side of (3), the following conditions should be satisfied to prove the existence of the optimal control solutions. I.

II. III.

đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018; is of class đ??śđ??ś 1 and there exists a constant đ?&#x153; đ?&#x153; such that |đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018; (0, 0, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)| â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x153;&#x201A;, ďż˝đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ďż˝ â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x153;&#x201A; (1 + |đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;|), and ďż˝đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ďż˝ â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x153;&#x201A;;

The admissible set â&#x201E;ą of all solutions to system (3) along with associated control in Î¨ is nonempty; ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;; đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ = đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ + đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘

Rabiu Aliyu Abdulkadir, Parvaneh Esmaili

The optimal control set đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; = ďż˝0, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝ Ă&#x2014; ďż˝0, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝ Ă&#x2014; ďż˝0, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝ is closed, compact and

IV.

convex; Th the objective functional integrand is convex in đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;.

By writing đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ as in (6), it is evident that đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ is of class đ??śđ??ś1 and |đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018; (0, 0, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)| = Î&#x203A;.

Also,

đ?&#x203A;Źđ?&#x203A;Ź â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (t)ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ = ďż˝(1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?) đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (t)ďż˝Eďż˝ đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? + đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; dI â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 (t)ďż˝I 0 â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;

â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Âľ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 â&#x192;&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ďż˝ = ďż˝ďż˝ (1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?) đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; ďż˝đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ďż˝ = ďż˝ďż˝ 0 0

0 â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??¸đ??¸ 0

(6).

â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ (1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?)đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ ďż˝ďż˝, and đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Âľ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3

0 0 ďż˝ďż˝. â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??źđ??ź

Owing to the boundedness of the state variables đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;, đ??¸đ??¸ and đ??źđ??ź, there exist a constant đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x153;&#x201A; such that |đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018; (0, 0, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)| â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x153;&#x201A;, ďż˝đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ďż˝ â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x153;&#x201A; (1 + |đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;|), and ďż˝đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ďż˝ â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x153;&#x201A;đ?&#x153;&#x201A;.

Hence, the first condition is satisfied. It can be deduced from condition (I), for constant control, there exists a unique solution to the system (3). It follows that condition (II) holds. Furthermore, đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ can be expanded as đ?&#x203A;Źđ?&#x203A;Ź â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (t)ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; đ?&#x153;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2018;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ = ďż˝(1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?) đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (t)ďż˝Eďż˝ đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? + đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; dI â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 (t)ďż˝I đ?&#x203A;Źđ?&#x203A;Ź â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Âľđ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; ( ) 1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ÂľE =ďż˝ ďż˝+ďż˝ 0 đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? + đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; dI â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ÂľI 0

0 â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??¸đ??¸ 0

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 0 0 ďż˝ Ă&#x2014; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ??źđ??ź

Therefore, condition (III) also holds. Conditions (IV) and (V) can be investigated by verifying the convexity of the integrand over the objective functional đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝. The convexity is satisfied if for any two control vectors đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014; and đ?&#x2018;Łđ?&#x2018;Łâ&#x192;&#x2014; and a constant đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152; â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; [0, 1] Where

(1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152;)đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ + đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Łđ?&#x2018;Łâ&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ â&#x2030;Ľ đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, (1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152;)đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014; + đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x2018;Łđ?&#x2018;Łâ&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤ đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤ đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤ đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝â&#x192;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąďż˝ = đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 đ??¸đ??¸ (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) + đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2 đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) + 1 đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘12 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) + 2 đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘22 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) + 3 đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘32 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) 2

(7)

Considering the LHS of (7), we have (1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑟𝑟�𝑋𝑋⃗, 𝑢𝑢�⃗, 𝑡𝑡� + 𝜌𝜌𝜌𝜌�𝑋𝑋⃗, 𝑣𝑣⃗, 𝑡𝑡� = 𝑎𝑎1 𝐸𝐸 (𝑡𝑡) + 𝑎𝑎2 𝐼𝐼 (𝑡𝑡) + 𝑤𝑤1

(1 − 𝜌𝜌) �

𝑤𝑤2

𝑢𝑢12 (𝑡𝑡) +

And the RHS of Equation (7) gives

𝑢𝑢22 (𝑡𝑡) +

𝑤𝑤3 2

𝑤𝑤1

𝑢𝑢32 (𝑡𝑡) � + 𝜌𝜌 �

𝑣𝑣12 (𝑡𝑡) +

𝑤𝑤2 2

𝑣𝑣22 (𝑡𝑡) +

𝑤𝑤3 2

𝑣𝑣32 (𝑡𝑡) �

𝑤𝑤 𝑟𝑟�𝑋𝑋⃗, (1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢�⃗ + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣⃗, 𝑡𝑡� = 𝑎𝑎1 𝐸𝐸 (𝑡𝑡) + 𝑎𝑎2 𝐼𝐼 (𝑡𝑡) + 1 [(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢1 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣1 ]2 + 𝑤𝑤2

It follows that

[(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢2 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣2 ]2 +

𝑤𝑤3 2

[(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢3 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣3 ]2

(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑟𝑟�𝑋𝑋⃗, 𝑢𝑢�⃗, 𝑡𝑡� + 𝜌𝜌𝜌𝜌�𝑋𝑋⃗, 𝑣𝑣⃗, 𝑡𝑡� − 𝑟𝑟�𝑋𝑋⃗, (1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢 �⃗ + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣⃗, 𝑡𝑡� =

= =

𝑤𝑤1 2

−

𝑤𝑤1

𝑤𝑤1 2

≥ 0,

[(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢12 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣12 ] +

𝑤𝑤2 2

[(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢22 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣22 ] +

[(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢1 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣1 ]2 −

𝑤𝑤2

{𝜌𝜌(1 − 𝜌𝜌)(𝑢𝑢1 − 𝑣𝑣1 )2 } +

𝑤𝑤2

[(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢32 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣32 ]

[(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢2 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣2 ]2 −

{(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢12 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣12 − [(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢1 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣1 ]2 } +

𝑤𝑤3

{(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢22 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣22 − [(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢3 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣3 ]2 } 2

𝑤𝑤2 2

𝑤𝑤3 2

[(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢3 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣3 ]2

{(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢12 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣12 − [(1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑢𝑢1 + 𝜌𝜌𝑣𝑣1 ]2 }

{𝜌𝜌(1 − 𝜌𝜌)(𝑢𝑢2 − 𝑣𝑣2 )2 } +

𝑤𝑤3 2

{𝜌𝜌(1 − 𝜌𝜌)(𝑢𝑢3 − 𝑣𝑣3 )2 }

Consequently, both conditions (IV) and (V) are satisfied, and the proof is completed.

3.2 OPTIMAL CONTROL SYSTEM CHARACTERISATION It has been proved in Section 3.1 that there exist the optimal controls that minimise the functional (5) subject to the system dynamic (3). The necessary conditions for this control can be drive by employing the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle (PMP) (Pontryagin et al., 1962). Following PMP, the control 𝑢𝑢1∗ , 𝑢𝑢2∗ and 𝑢𝑢3∗ with equivalent states variables 𝑋𝑋 ∗ are optimal and minimises the

objective functional (5) for a fixed final time 𝑡𝑡𝑓𝑓 , if the following conditions hold: 1. The optimality condition 𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕(𝑋𝑋,𝑢𝑢1,𝑢𝑢2,𝑢𝑢3,𝜆𝜆)

⎧ 𝜕𝜕𝑢𝑢 ⎪𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕(𝑋𝑋,𝑢𝑢 ,𝑢𝑢1 1

2 ,𝑢𝑢3 ,𝜆𝜆)

𝜕𝜕𝑢𝑢2 ⎨ 𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕(𝑋𝑋,𝑢𝑢 1 ,𝑢𝑢2 ,𝑢𝑢3 ,𝜆𝜆) ⎪

⎩

𝜕𝜕𝑢𝑢3

=0 =0 =0

2. The optimal control system

𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕(𝑋𝑋,𝑢𝑢1,𝑢𝑢2,𝑢𝑢3,𝜆𝜆)

𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

𝜕𝜕𝜆𝜆3

⎧ 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 𝜕𝜕𝜆𝜆 ⎪𝑑𝑑𝐸𝐸 𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕(𝑋𝑋,𝑢𝑢 ,𝑢𝑢1 ,𝑢𝑢 ,𝜆𝜆) 1 2 3 = 𝜕𝜕𝜆𝜆2 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 ⎨ ⎪𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 𝜕𝜕𝜕𝜕(𝑋𝑋,𝑢𝑢1,𝑢𝑢2,𝑢𝑢3,𝜆𝜆) ⎩

Rabiu Aliyu Abdulkadir, Parvaneh Esmaili

(8)

3. The co-state system đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;

đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ ,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ ,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ ,đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;)

1 1 2 3 â&#x17D;§ đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; = â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022; â&#x17D;Şđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020; đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3,đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;) 2 =â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022; đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; â&#x17D;¨ â&#x17D;Şđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;3 = â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2,đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3,đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;) â&#x17D;Š

đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

(9)

đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;

4. The minimisation conditions

đ??ťđ??ť (đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014; ) = min0â&#x2030;¤đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘â&#x2030;¤1 đ??ťđ??ť (đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 , đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014; ), holds for đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; [0, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ].

5. And the transversality conditions are also holds đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ďż˝ = 0, đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = 1,2,3

(10)

With the function đ??ťđ??ť (Hamiltonian function) defined as đ??ťđ??ť (đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 , đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;) = đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 đ??¸đ??¸ (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) + đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2 đ??źđ??ź(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) +

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤1 2

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘12 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) +

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤2 2

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘22 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) +

+đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;1 ďż˝đ?&#x203A;Źđ?&#x203A;Ź â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (t)ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;ďż˝ + đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;2 ďż˝(1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?) đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (t)ďż˝Eďż˝

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤3 2

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘32 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)

+ đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;3 ďż˝đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? + đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; dI â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 (t)ďż˝Iďż˝

Theorem 2: There exist co-state variables đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;1â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;3 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą), given the optimal solution,

đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ??¸đ??¸ â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ??źđ??ź â&#x2C6;&#x2014; and associated control đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1â&#x2C6;&#x2014; , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2â&#x2C6;&#x2014; đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3â&#x2C6;&#x2014; that minimises đ??˝đ??˝ (đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 ) over Î¨, such that đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;

1 â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x17D;§ đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; = đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;1 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)[đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) + Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)] â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)(1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?)đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;3 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x17D;Şđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020; 2 = đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)[Âľ + đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)] â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; â&#x17D;¨đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020; â&#x17D;Ş 3 = đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)(1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?) đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)[đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Âľ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)] â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; 2 1 2 3 3 â&#x17D;Š

(11).

đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

Together with transversality conditions đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ďż˝ = 0, đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = 1,2,3

(12)

Equally, the piecewise characterization of the continuous optimal control function is given as: đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) = đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝0,

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) = đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝0,

đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) = đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝0,

đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;1(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)

ďż˝ , 1ďż˝

đ??ľđ??ľ1 đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;2(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ??¸đ??¸â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) đ??ľđ??ľ2 đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;3(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ??źđ??źâ&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) đ??ľđ??ľ3

ďż˝ , 1ďż˝

(13)

ďż˝ , 1ďż˝

Proof: The co-state system (11) and the optimal control characterisation (13) are obtained from the explicit application of conditions (9) and (8) of the Pontryaginâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Maximum Principle, *Corresponding author (Parvaneh Esmaili). Email: parvaneh.esmaili@neu.edu.tr ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07K http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.131

respectively. The optimal control (13) is unique over an adequately short final time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; , the Lipschitz

property and boundedness of the state (3) and co-state (11) systems (3) and (9) and boundedness of the state and co-state functions (Bather et al., 1976). The overall optimality system encompasses the system (3) and its initial conditions, the co-state system (11) along with transversality conditions (12), and the optimal control characterisation (13): đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

â&#x17D;§ đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; = đ?&#x203A;Źđ?&#x203A;Ź â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (t)ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x17D;ŞdE = (1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?) đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ (t)ďż˝E 2 â&#x17D;Ş đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; â&#x17D;Ş = đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? + đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; dI â&#x2C6;&#x2019; ďż˝Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 (t)ďż˝I â&#x17D;Şđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;1 â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x17D;Ş đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; = đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;1 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)[đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) + Âľ + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)] â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)(1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?)đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;3 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ??źđ??ź (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x17D;Şđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;2 â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x17D;Ş đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; = đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)[Âľ + đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; + đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)] â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;3 = đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;1â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)(1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?) đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;3 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)[đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020; â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; Âľ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)] â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2 đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; â&#x17D;¨ â&#x17D;Şđ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;(0), đ??¸đ??¸ (0), đ??źđ??ź(0) â&#x2030;Ľ 0, â&#x17D;Şđ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ďż˝ = 0, đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = 1,2,3 â&#x17D;Ş â&#x2C6;&#x2014; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;1(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) ( ) ďż˝ , 1ďż˝ ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝0, đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; â&#x17D;Ş 1 đ??ľđ??ľ1 â&#x17D;Ş â&#x2C6;&#x2014; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014;2(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ??¸đ??¸â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) â&#x17D;Şđ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) = đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝0, đ??ľđ??ľ2 ďż˝ , 1ďż˝ â&#x17D;Ş â&#x2C6;&#x2014; đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą)đ??źđ??źâ&#x2C6;&#x2014; (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) = đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161;đ?&#x2018;&#x161; ďż˝0, 3 ďż˝ , 1ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ 3 â&#x17D;Š đ??ľđ??ľ3

(14)

4. NUMERICAL SIMULATION

In this section, numerical simulations are implemented to validate the analytic results. The epidemiological parameters used for the simulation are reflected in Table 2. The optimality system (14), is solved by employing the forward-backward sweep technique. In this technique, the state equations are first solved forward in time using an initial guess of the control variables and state variablesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; initial conditions. The co-state equations are solved backward in time using the values of the states and control variables from the current iteration and transversality conditions. The control variables are then updated by using the values of the states and co-states obtained from the current iteration. The process is repeated until the results converged. The initial values of the state variables are assumed to be as đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;(0) = 3800, đ??¸đ??¸(0) = 1800 and đ??źđ??ź(0) = 200. Table 2: Simulation parameters Parameter Symbol đ?&#x203A;Źđ?&#x203A;Ź Âľ d đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝ đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? đ?&#x153;&#x2026;đ?&#x153;&#x2026;

Value 1000 1 70 0.17 0.003 0.3 0.003

Rabiu Aliyu Abdulkadir, Parvaneh Esmaili

Unit person year-1 year-1

Source (Baba et al., 2019) (Castillo-chavez, 2004)

year-1 person-1 year-1 None year-1

(Gao & Huang, 2018) (Yang et al., 2016) (Castillo-chavez, 2004)

Figure 1 illustrated the trajectories of the optimal control functions, which indicated that to curtail the prevalence of the TB, both the case finding đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) and case holding đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 (đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą) control efforts should be maintained at the top bound throughout the entire period of the control intervention. In Figs. 2-3, the comparison of the populations in the case with optimal control (with đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 and đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 ) and without the application of the control are depicted. Solid-blue lines identify the population without control interventions whereas the populations with optimal control are indicated with dashed-red lines. In Figure 2, the population of the susceptible to optimal control is higher than the case without control. Similarly, from Figs. 3 and 4 it is clear that the optimal control intervention is very effective as both the exposed and infected populations are successfully contained.

u 1

0.8 u

u 3

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 0

Time

Figure 1: Profiles of the optimal control functions. Weight constants đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 = 100, đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2 = 100, đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤1 = 1000, đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤2 = 500 and đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤3 = 500. 4000 Susceptibles without control Susceptibles with control

3500

3000

S(t)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 0

Time

Figure 2: Significance of the optimal control of the susceptible population.

Exposed without control

14000

Exposed with control

12000

10000

E(t)

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 5

Time

Figure 3: Significance of the optimal control of the exposed population. 2000 Infected without control Infected with control

1750

1500

I(t)

1250

1000

750

500

250

0 0

Time

Figure 4: Significance of the optimal control of the infected population. 2000

1750

1500

1250

I(t)

=0 u 1

1000

0u 2

≠

≠ 1

≠

=0 u

500

≠

750

=0 u 2

≠

0u 2

≠

250

0 0

Time

Figure 5: Infected population trajectory under different control strategies. Figure 5 illustrates the effects of different control strategies on the infected group. It can be

Rabiu Aliyu Abdulkadir, Parvaneh Esmaili

vividly seen that the best performance is achieved by considering the three controls simultaneously. The least performance occurs when only đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 are considered. From the numerical result at the final time, the total number of the infected without control is approximately 1820, and 0 when all the three control interventions are considered simultaneously.

5. COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS This section discussed the cost-effectiveness analysis, using an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), as described in (Tilahun et al., 2017). The investigation is performed to identify the most suitable control strategy that balances the stringent needs of the control actions and the need to minimise the cost of implementation of the control interventions compared to other policies. An ICER gives a degree of the economic value of a particular intervention strategy in comparison to alternative approaches. ICER is computed as a ratio of incremental cost (difference in costs between two strategies) to incremental effect (difference in a total number of prevented incidences) (York, 2016). As illustrated in Table 3, four control strategies are considered, with at least two control interventions in each (considering that single intervention is not reliable in eradicating the disease). These strategies are compared pairwise. The total cost of each strategy is assumed to be equal to the objective function cost value associated with it. Moreover, the total number of prevented cases for each strategy is estimated by subtracting the number of infected populations with control from those without control at the final time. Comparing the cost-effectiveness of strategies, I and II, đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź(đ??źđ??ź ) =

41435 542

= 76

đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź(đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤â&#x201E;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ??źđ??ź ) =

(41435â&#x2C6;&#x2019;80013) (542â&#x2C6;&#x2019;1790)

= 31

Which indicated that strategy II (with less ICER) is more effective compared to strategy I. Next strategy II is compared with strategy III as follows: đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź(đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź ) =

80013 1790

= 45

đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź(đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤â&#x201E;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź ) =

(80013â&#x2C6;&#x2019;31953) (1790â&#x2C6;&#x2019;1568)

= 216

Similarly, a comparison between strategies II and III revealed that strategy II is more effective. Finally, by comparing strategies II and IV, strategy IV with ICER of â&#x2C6;&#x2019;2203 appeared to be the best among all the four strategies. Table 3: comparison of the controlâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s combination Controls Strategies No control Strategy I (đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 ) Strategy II (đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 ) Strategy III (đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 ) Strategy IV (đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘1 , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘2 đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘3 )

Infected populations at final time đ??źđ??ź(đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; ) 1820 1278 30 252 0

Number of cases saved at đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x201C;đ?&#x2018;&#x201C; NA 542 1790 1568 1820

Objective cost function value (J) NA 41435 80013 31953 13917

6. CONCLUSION

The study proposed the potential application of optimal control theory and cost-effectiveness *Corresponding author (Parvaneh Esmaili). Email: parvaneh.esmaili@neu.edu.tr ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07K http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.131

analysis for a tuberculosis model with slow and fast progression. For this purpose, a basic TB model is modified by adding three optimal control functions representing vaccination, case finding and case holding control interventions. The objective of the control is to reduce or eliminate the prevalence of TB in both the latent and active classes, while simultaneously minimizing the cost of executing the control intervention. The uniqueness and existence of the resulting optimal control model have been proved using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. Numerical simulations were conducted using the fourth-order Runge Kutta method to validate the analytical results. Moreover, different control strategies were proposed, and their economic value and effectiveness were investigated using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The optimal control results indicated how the use of effective control strategies would help in eradicating the disease. Also, the cost-effectiveness analysis implies that the best way to curtail the epidemic is to implement the three control interventions concurrently. The study can serve as a reliable tool to inform practical disease management strategies.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL The code can be made available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Baba, I. A., Abdulkadir, R. A., & Esmaili, P. (2019). Analysis of tuberculosis model with saturated incidence rate and optimal control. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 540, 123237. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123237 Bather, J. A., Fleming, W. H., & Rishel, R. W. (1976). Deterministic and Stochastic Optimal Control, Journal of the Royal Statistical Soceity. 139(4), 20-79. DOI: 10.2307/2344363 Brauer, F. (2017). Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future. Infectious Disease Modelling, 2(2), 113–127. DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.02.001 Castillo-chavez, C. (2004). Dynamical models of tuberculosis and their applications. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 1(2), 361–404. DOI: 10.1137/1.9781611972429.ch9 Chalub, F. A. C. C., & Souza, M. O. (2011). The SIR epidemic model from a PDE point of view. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 53(7–8), 1568–1574. DOI: 10.1016/j.mcm.2010.05.036 Gao, D. peng, & Huang, N. jing. (2018). Optimal control analysis of a tuberculosis model. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 58, 47–64. DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2017.12.027 Giamberardino, P. Di, & Iacoviello, D. (2018). Modeling and control of an epidemic disease under possible complication. 2018 22nd International Conference on System Theory, Control and Computing (ICSTCC), 67–72. Gomes, M. G. M., Rodrigues, P., Hilker, F. M., Mantilla-beniers, N. B., Muehlen, M., Cristina, A., & Medley, G. F. (2007). Implications of partial immunity on the prospects for tuberculosis control by post-exposure interventions, 248, 608–617. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.06.005 Heesterbeek, H. et. al. (2015). Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science, 347(6227). DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4339 Jumbo, J., Obaseki, D. O., & Ikuabe, P. O. (2013). Tuberculosis and gender parity in a TB Referral Centre, South –South Nigeria. Greener Journal of Medical Sciences, 3(7), 270–275. Li, C. H. (2015). Dynamics of a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 427, 234–243. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.023

Rabiu Aliyu Abdulkadir, Parvaneh Esmaili

Matthew, B., & Keeling, J. (2008). Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals Diseases in Humans. (G. P. Wormser, Ed.). USA: Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Mccluskey, C. C. (2006). Lyapunov Functions for Tuberculosis Models with Fast and Slow Progression, Mathematical Biosceinces and Engineering, 3(4) 603-614. Metcalf, C. J. E., Edmunds, W. J., & Lessler, J. (2015). Six challenges in modeling for public health policy. Epidemics, 10, 93–96. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.008 UN. (2019). The Sustainable Development Goals Report. Nematollahi, M. H., Vatankhah, R., & Sharifi, M. (2020). Nonlinear adaptive control of tuberculosis with consideration of the risk of endogenous reactivation and exogenous reinfection. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 486, 110081. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110081 WHO (2015). Guidelines for surveillance of drug resistance in tuberculosis. (F. Byrne, Ed.) (5th ed.). Switzerland: World Health Organization. Pontryagin, L. S., Boltyanskii, V. G., Gamkrelidze, R. V., & Mishchenko, E. F. (1962). The Mathematical Theory of Optimal Processes. Wiley, 53. New York. Tilahun, G. T., Makinde, O. D., & Malonza, D. (2017). Modeling and Optimal Control of Typhoid Fever Disease with Cost-Effective Strategies. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 2017, 1–16. DOI: 10.1155/2017/2324518 WHO.

(2019). Global tuberculosis report 2019. https://www.who.int/tb/publications/global_report/en

Retrieved

January

10,

2020,

from

Xin, L., Guo, Y., & Zhu, Q. (2019). Dynamic of stochastic epidemic model based on the association between susceptible and recovered individuals. Preprints 2019, 2019050368 Yang, Y., Tang, S., Ren, X., Zhao, H., & Guo, C. (2016). Global stability and optimal control for a tuberculosis model with vaccination and treatment. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - Series B, 21(3), 1009–1022. DOI: 10.3934/dcdsb.2016.21.1009 York.

(2016). Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio. http://yhec.co.uk/glossary/incremental-cost-effectiveness-ratio-icer Retrieved January 2020.

Zaman, G., Jung, I. H., Torres, D. F. M., & Zeb, A. (2017). Mathematical Modeling and Control of Infectious Diseases. Zhang, S., & Zhou, Y. (2012). Dynamics and application of an epidemiological model for hepatitis C. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 56(1-2), 36-42. DOI: 10.1016/j.mcm.2011.11.081 Rabiu Aliyu Abdulkadir is a PhD student at Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Near East University, TRNC. He got his Bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from Kano University of Science and Technology Wudil, Nigeria, and a Master’s degree in Instrumentation and Control from Sharda University, India. His research interests are Control Systems Design, Robotics, Computer Vision, Image Processing and Artificial Intelligence.

Dr. Parvaneh Esmaili is an Assistant Professor at Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Near East University, TRNC. She received her BSc degree in Computer Software Engineering from the Tabriz Azad University of Iran. She also did her MSc in an Intelligent Controller for robot manipulators program from the Tabriz Azad University of Iran. Then, she completed her PhD in Computer Science-Robotics in University Teknologi Malaysia. Her research work is Multiple Robot Synchronization, Intelligent Control, Deep learning, SLAM, Robot Control for Rehabilitation.

*Corresponding author (Parvaneh Esmaili). Email: parvaneh.esmaili@neu.edu.tr ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07K http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07K.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.131

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07L

DUAL-BAND HELICAL ANTENNAS FOR NAVIGATION RECEIVERS Nikolay Mikhailovich Legkiy 1

Department of Radio Engineering and Telecommunication Systems, MIREA – Russian Technological University, RUSSIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 18 July 2019 Received in revised form 06 January 2020 Accepted 27 January 2020 Available online 14 February 2020

This paper presents a design of a dual-band helical antenna for tracking navigation signals. There were done several calculations and modeling as well were studied characteristics of a prototype model. Nested helical antennas have the advantage to form independently their radiation patterns and to fit together with their phase centers. This advantage can be used to design the radiators of multi-frequency parabolic reflector antennas with rotating polarization.

Keywords: Antenna phase center; Nested helical antenna; Antenna modeling; GNSS antenna; Helical antenna; Multi-frequency antenna.

1. INTRODUCTION Quite often, there is a need to receive and/or to transmit a signal within certain frequency ranges using an antenna. Multi-band antennas can operate in two basic ways: 1) Using antenna radiators within a band that covers the desired frequency ranges. 2) Combining into an aperture of the antenna the radiators within different ranges. In the latter case, placing the radiators next to each other while they will be receiving and/or transmitting a signal will lead to interference between them. Additionally, it will distort directional characteristics, impedance and polarization properties [1-9]. Nested helical antennas have the advantage to form independently their radiation patterns and to fit together with their phase centers. This advantage can be used to design the radiators of multi-frequency parabolic reflector antennas with rotating polarization. When developing the multi-band helical antenna, there is a need to break the frequency spectrum into parts or to filter the separated frequencies out of it. Where it happens, we use diplexers that cause additional energy loss and functional inconveniences. Besides, there could be a problem to separate close frequencies using diplexers. On top of that, the parameters such as power, the width of radiation *Corresponding author (Legkiy Nikolay Mikhailovich) E-mail: legkii.nikolay@gmail.com 2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07L http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.132

pattern and phase center position of a regular helical antenna are dependent on the frequency.

2. METHOD 2.1 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE There is the need to fit together several helical antennas that operate within different ranges, namely, to place them on the same axis “into each other” as shown in Figure 1. This is especially relevant when the helical antennas are used as the radiators of the parabolic reflector antenna or as an element of receiving antenna system and (three- or four-element array) of an angle meter. In addition, that requires to fit together the phase centers of radiators within several frequency ranges.

Figure 1: Radiator consists of two nested helixes According to [7], a field of the helical antenna can be represented as the sum of the fields of ring radiators with traveling current waves, besides the radiators were placed equidistantly along the z-axis. Then two nested “into each other” helixes can be represented as two sets of rings. To evaluate their influence on each other, we need to examine the interaction between two rings that represent different helixes and are coplanar. The interaction between rings that ate distant from each other along the OZ axis will be weaker because of the bigger distance that is between them than along the OY axis. Thus, we need to consider the model shown in Figure 2. To make it simple, there are a cross-sectional shape of the conductors and square section rings with a side 2а3. The section of rings in a spherical coordinate system is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 2: Model consists of two rings: a) Model has two rings of square section; b) The section of the model with the two rings is in the spherical coordinate system. We will believe the first ring with radius a1 is active, namely, it has an external current, and the second ring with radius a2 is passive. To estimate the effect of the ring 1 on the ring 2, we need to find the induced current in the ring 2. The specific nature of this model is that we search for the field in the induction zone, and therefore, the radial coordinate at the observation point r cannot satisfy inequalities r >> λ, a1, a2,

Nikolay Mikhailovich Legkiy

where Îť is the wavelength. Also, the radii of the rings must be selected according to the working wavelengths of the helixes, i.e. based on the ratios: 2đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 = đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;1 , 2đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2 = đ?&#x153;&#x2020;đ?&#x153;&#x2020;2

(1).

These special aspects do not allow making approximate field calculations using expansion into series per any parameter. Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s suppose that the current density in the ring 1 is given as the traveling wave: đ??˝đ??˝ = đ??˝đ??˝0 eâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;

(2),

where đ??˝đ??˝0 is the amplitude of the current density, l is the coordinate of the first ring,

k = 2Ď&#x20AC; / Îť1 is the wavenumber. When counting the azimuthal angle Îą1 from the axis OX in the counterclockwise, l = a1 Îą1. According to [8], the magnetic vector potential A will have a single component AÎą that is defined by đ??´đ??´đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź =

đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;

4đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;

đ??˝đ??˝0 â&#x2C6;Ťđ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;

đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019; â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019; â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;1đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152;

đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

(3),

where Îź is the magnetic permeability of media, đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030; is the volume of the ring conductor 1, a Ď is the distance from the source point to the observation point, and is equal to: đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152; = ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 2 + đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x; 2 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; 2 đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 â&#x2C6;&#x2122; đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x; â&#x2C6;&#x2122; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?(đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )

(4),

where Îą is the azimuthal coordinate of the observation point on the second ring. Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s assume that the current density on the first ring is spread evenly over its cross-section and taken integral of (3) with respect to this section, we obtain an expression for AÎą as the integral on the azimuthal angle Îą1: đ??´đ??´đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź =

đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;

4đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;

2đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019; â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;1đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1

đ??źđ??ź1 â&#x2C6;Ť0

đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1

đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1

(5)

where I1 is the amplitude of the total current on the ring. The magnetic field caused by the current in the ring 1 is determined by the relation H = -1 / Îź rot A, where the operation rot is applied to entering A coordinates of the observation point. In the spherical coordinate system, we obtain two components of the magnetic field: đ??ťđ??ťđ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x; =

đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? đ??´đ??´đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;

đ??ťđ??ťđ?&#x153;&#x192;đ?&#x153;&#x192; = â&#x2C6;&#x2019; (đ??´đ??´đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź /r +

đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ??´đ??´đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;

(6), )/đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;

*Corresponding author (Legkiy Nikolay Mikhailovich) E-mail: legkii.nikolay@gmail.com 2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07L http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.132

(7).

The surface current density over the conductor of the second ring is determined by the expression [9]:

J2 = - [n*H]

(8),

where n is the unit vector of the inner normal with reference to the surface of the conductor. If we choose the positive current đ??˝đ??˝2 flowing in the counterclockwise direction, we get J2 = Hr(Î¸=900-Î˛,r=a2) - Hr(Î¸=900+Î˛, r=a2)

- HÎ¸(Î¸=900, r=a2-a3)+HÎ¸(Î¸=900, r=a2+a3)

(9).

The total current over the conductor of the second ring will be equal to the product of the surface current density J2 at the cross-sectional size 2a3:

I2 = J2Î&#x2021;2Đ°3

(10)

Entering (6) and (7), derivatives are determined by đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ??´đ??´đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;

đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ??´đ??´đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;đ?&#x153;&#x2022;

đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;

4đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;

=â&#x2C6;&#x2019;

2đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039; exp(â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )(1+đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;+đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )

đ??źđ??ź0 đ?&#x2018;&#x;đ?&#x2018;&#x; â&#x2C6;&#x2122; cos(đ?&#x153;&#x192;đ?&#x153;&#x192;) đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 2 â&#x2C6;Ť0 đ?&#x153;&#x2021;đ?&#x153;&#x2021;

4đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;

đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152; 3cos(đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )

2đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039; exp(â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )(1+đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;+đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )

đ??źđ??ź0 đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 â&#x2C6;Ť0

đ?&#x153;&#x152;đ?&#x153;&#x152; 3 râ&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1 sin(Î¸)cos(đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )

đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1

(11), (12).

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s substitute (11), (12) and (5) for (6) and (7), and then for (9) and (10), we obtain the expression for amplitude ratio of the total current on the second ring with reference to the current amplitude on the first ring as đ??źđ??ź2

where

đ??źđ??ź1

đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą 2

2đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039; (1+đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;+đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 ) exp(â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 ) đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 â&#x2C6;Ť đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17E; 2 đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039; 0 đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17E; (2+p(p+cos(đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )))

(13),

đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? = đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2 â &#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;1

(14),

đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17E; = ďż˝1 + p2 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; 2đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;? â&#x2C6;&#x2122; cos(đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )

(16).

đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;3 â &#x201E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;2

(15),

As well the ratios were considered (1). As the traveling current wave on the first ring forces up a similar wave on the second ring, it would make sense taking an appropriate exponent out the integral sign in the expression (13). đ??źđ??ź2 đ??źđ??ź1

đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą 2 đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;

2đ?&#x153;&#x2039;đ?&#x153;&#x2039;

exp(â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;) â&#x2C6;Ť0

exp(â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;â&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 +đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;)

đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17E; (2+p(p+cos(đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 )))

(1+đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;+đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 ) đ?&#x2018;&#x17E;đ?&#x2018;&#x17E; 2

đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1

(17).

Using the expression under the integral sign for the azimuth at the observation point Îą we can select the real and imaginary parts, calculate the integrals and ultimately determine the module |I2/I1(Îą) exp(jÎą)|.

Nikolay Mikhailovich Legkiy

Calculations show that we can observe a mode of traveling current wave in the second ring that is like the wave in the first ring, but it has the amplitude that depends on the azimuthal coordinate. The calculation results for the module that indicates this ratio depending upon α at t = 0.01 for several values p = λ2 / λ1 = a2/a1 are illustrated by the graphs shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: The ratio of current in the passive ring with respect to the current in the active one Obviously, the more operating wavelength of the helixes differs, the less current is induced in the passive ring and, accordingly, it has less influence on the radiation pattern of the active helix. The ratio t = 0.01 means that a3 / λ2 ≈ 0.0016 and, for example, at λ2 = 240 mm, a3 = 0.38 mm, namely the cross-sectional size of the second ring is equal to 0.76 mm. In addition, the size and ratio of wavelengths p ≈ 1.2, the current amplitude on the second ring does not exceed 3% of the current amplitude on the first ring. In view of t <0.01 and p> 1.2, the magnitude of the induced current on the second ring is even smaller. The induced current on the second ring is proportional to the square of its size a3 because of two factors: 1) The larger cross-section of the conductor is, the higher the induced current is, according to (10), 2) The currents that are induced on opposite sides of the cross-section of the conductor are contra-directional, in other words, they almost cancel each other out), as the direction of the magnetic field is the same on both sides of the cross-section. The conducted analysis shows that even though the operating wavelengths of the two nested helixes differ by more than 20% and conductor windings are thin the mutual influence of the helixes on the radiation patterns is low. This allows creating two or more multi-frequency helical antennas by placing helixes on the same axis “into each other”.

2.2 CALCULATION OF THE RADIATION PATTERN FOR THE HELICAL ANTENNA The calculation of the parameters for the helical radiating element (winding parameters), including the right circular polarization with FE ≈ 1 is completely presented in [7]. According to the graph [7], we determine the radius of winding a and the angle of winding α for wavelength λ. In order to have a single maximum in the radiation pattern, the T1 wave must be stimulated in the antenna. The radiation patterns of the monofilar helical antenna are calculated according to the formulas [7] *Corresponding author (Legkiy Nikolay Mikhailovich) E-mail: legkii.nikolay@gmail.com 2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07L http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.132

- in-plane φ = 0º: φ ϑ ≈ ϑ 0 (kα sin α ) cos θ sin(γ 0πN ) /(γ 0 − 1), 2

φ φ ≈ ϑ 0 (kα sin α )γ 0 sin(γ 0πN ) /(γ 0 − 1), 2

(18),

where N is the number of turns, Jo is the amplitude of the feeding current; - in-plane φ = 90º: φ θ ≈ J 0 (kα sin α )γ 0 cos θ sin(γ 0πN ) /(γ 0 − 1), 2

φ φ ≈ J 0 (kα sin α ) sin(γ 0πN ) /(γ 0 − 1), 2

where

(19).

γ 0 = ( βα − kα ⋅ cosθ ) ⋅ tγα .

The radiation pattern of the helical antenna can be approximately considered as a rotation body and use for calculation one of the formulas (18), (19).

2.3 EXPERIMENTAL VERIFICATION OF RESULTS The experimental verification of the calculation results was done during the development of radiators for the reflector antenna — GPS/GLONASS signal receiver module. To measure the radiation pattern of circularly polarized antennas using a short pulse stroboscopic test unit, similarly, we have designed the antenna that covers the frequency band from 1.1 to 2.3 GHz, shown in Figure 4.

а) b) c) Figure 4: The multi-band antenna for the stroboscopic test unit to measure the radiation pattern: a) The antenna with winding for operation with circular polarization; b) A method for tuning the antenna; c) The voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) for the antenna. This wideband was achieved by using a matching device, Figure 4a, which provides a smooth transition from a 50 Ohm line to the helical antenna. When binding a radiator module, we use a low-noise amplifier (LNA), shown in Figure 5, the LNA has a low noise coefficient of about 1.8 dB, has input protection against a constant component and two amplification stages (low-noise transistors with the noise coefficient up to 0.8 dB). Two channels are summed using a summarizer. Power is supplied to the LNA via a high-frequency cable through a voltage stabilizer chip. Based on this model, there was built the radiator for the reflector antenna in a software environment, shown in Figure 6a. The diameter and the winding pitch were optimized because the windings in the dielectric base ε = 3.2 led to a decrease in their diameter. Each of the two helical windings goes to its connector. The radiator and the LNA block with

Nikolay Mikhailovich Legkiy

filters are installed on a common flange and are hidden under a radiotransparent polyamide case. The radiator and assembled unit are shown in Figure 6 b-d.

Figure 5: The low-noise amplifier with two outputs to a passive antenna radiator.

Đ°)

d) e) Figure 6: Radiator of the reflector antenna: a) 3-dimensional model; b) The model of a helix that was wound around dielectric-polyamide; c) The antenna on the base; d) Waveguide filters with the LNA e) The assembled radiator under the fairing unit. Measured characteristics of the radiation are shown in Figures 7 and 8.

Figure 7: Radiation pattern sections of the radiator that were measured from the output of channel 1 (1600 MHz) at the central frequencies of the operating ranges. *Corresponding author (Legkiy Nikolay Mikhailovich) E-mail: legkii.nikolay@gmail.com 2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07L http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07L.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.132

Figure 8: Radiation pattern sections of the radiator that were measured from the output of channel 2 (1250 MHz) at the central frequencies of the operating ranges.

3. CONCLUSION We conducted the theoretical analysis on the mutual influence of helical antennas nested “into each other” on the same axis and based on the model that consists of the two rings shows that under certain conditions this interaction is low. To reduce the mutual influence, we need to use the sufficiently thin wire to make helixes for the two helical antennas. The experiment confirmed the results of calculations and modeling. The principle to nest helical antennas “into each other” can be used when combining two or more operating frequency ranges.

4. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

5. REFERENCES [1] Lan, C. W., Chang, T. H., & Kiang, J. F. (2004, June). Helical antenna for GPS applications. IEEE Antennas and Propagation Society Symposium, 2004, 3: 3329-3332. [2] Josh Rabemanantsoa and Ala Sharaiha Small-folded, Printed Quadrifilar Helix Antenna for GPS Applications (2010) 14th International Symposium on Antenna Technology and Applied Electromagnetics [ANTEM] and the American Electromagnetics Conference [AMEREM], 4S. [3] Sivasankar, Thota & Mohan, V.V.Murali. (2010). Helical antenna for GPS Applications. [4] P. G. Elliot, E. N. Rosario, R. J. Davis Novel Quadrifilar Helix Antenna Combining GNSS, Iridium, and a UHF Communications Monopole https://www.mitre.org/sites/default/files/pdf/12_3123.pdf [5] Cheng-Wei Lan, Tze-Hsuan Chang, J.-F. Kiang Helical antenna for GPS applications Computer ScienceIEEE Antennas and Propagation Society Symposium, 2004.2004 [6] Legkiy N.M., Unchenko I.V. Formation of the direction diagram in phased antenna array. Rossiyskiy tekhnologicheskiy zhurnal (Russian Technological Journal). 2019; 7(2): 29-38. (in Russ.). DOI:10.32362/2500-316X-2019-7-2-29-38 [7] Palud, S., Colombel, F., Himdi, M., & Le Meins, C. (2011). Wideband omnidirectional and compact antenna for VHF/UHF band. IEEE Antennas and Wireless Propagation Letters, 10, 3-6. [8] Ruey-Shi Chu, Kuun M.Lee, Allen T.S. Wang. Multiband, phased-array antenna with interleaved tapered-element and waveguide radiators. Patent USA 5557291.

Nikolay Mikhailovich Legkiy

[9] West, James B., Elsallal, Mohamed Wajih A., Multiband phased array antenna utilizing a unit cell, Patent USA 6650291. Professor Dr. Legkiy Nikolay is Professor at Department of Radio Engineering and Telecommunication Systems MIREA - Russian Technological University, Moscow, Russia. His research covers Radio Engineering and Automation.

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PAPER ID: 11A07M

BAMBOO APPLICATION IN BUILDING DESIGN: CASE STUDY OF GREEN SCHOOL, BALI, INDONESIA Bambang Karsono

, Mohamad Shihadeh A. Arar ,

Julaihi Wahid , Bassim Saleh

Department of Architecture, Faculty of Built Environment, University Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, MALAYSIA. 2 Department of Architecture Engineering, College of Engineering, Ajman University, Al Jurf, Ajman, UAE. ARTICLEINFO

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Article history: Received 14 June 2019 Received in revised form 20 January 2020 Accepted 04 February 2020 Available online 18 February 2020

Bamboo has been known widely as a material for buildings since the dawn of the century. Nevertheless, bamboo is often regarded as a lowclass building material which has commonly used by low-income people. Since the issue of global warming and sustainability, bamboo became a focus for building material due to its sustenance and fast growth in the natural environment. Architects and builders alike started to choose bamboo as an alternative to wood. Furthermore, it is difficult to get good-quality woods for construction and historically, a vast tract of land has been ruined due to deforestation that caused an adverse effect on the surroundings. This paper attempts to discuss the properties of bamboo and how it is inventively applied in building design. Descriptive-qualitative methods were used in this study to reveal an understanding of the application of bamboo in building design. To further enhance the finding and context of discussing a case study on how bamboo has been used in designing the structure in an innovative organic form. The result from this research found out that bamboo is noble to be considered as an alternative material in building design due to its natural properties, exclusively for curvilinear organic-form building that hardly achieved in steel and concrete.

Keywords: Bamboo architecture; Creative design; Sustainable design; Green architecture; Green building material; Bamboo school building; Local value.

1. INTRODUCTION The image of bamboo usually reflects the characteristics and context of Asian and tropical countries. Usually, in Indonesia, it is easy to find a bamboo plant with various kinds of species in almost every region of the country. Scientists indicated that 1,250 bamboo species found in all around the world and 11 percent of them are locally endemic to Indonesia. Bamboo plant has a definite property to preserve an environmental balance such as to avoid erosion and to improve *Corresponding author (Bambang Karsono) Email: kbambang@unimas.my©2020

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07M http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07M.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.133

groundwater quality. Normally, bamboo can grow up 10 to 30 centimeters in a day which is faster than any kind of timber. After 3-5 years, the bamboo plant achieves its maturity and ready to be harvested. For generations, bamboo is widely known by the people in Indonesia as used as a local material for various purposes in their daily life. Bamboo plants in Indonesia are found in both lowlands and highlands with an altitude of about 300 m above the sea level and are generally grown in open areas and free of puddles (Purwito, 2008). However, bamboo is often regarded as 'a low-income material' because it generally used by the working class in building shelter. This stereotype presumption affects the middle to high-income people to disregard bamboo as a building material in their design. They prefer to suit their architectural design according to the trends leading towards high-end technologies with modern materials, commonly, steel, concrete, glass or brick. Therefore, this study attempts to examine the properties of bamboo and will deliberately apply a case study to elaborate and explore the application of bamboo in building design.

2. METHODOLOGY This research will employ a descriptive-qualitative technique in conducting the study to reveal an understanding as well as the applications of bamboo as a material in building design. The discussion focuses on the utilization of bamboo in building design and how the creative and innovative way of this humble material can address the current demand for sustainable and green architectural issues. Some factors are taken into account for the analysis, i.e., types of bamboo to generate building form, how the creativity in construction technique can be manipulated and the creativity of local craftsmanship. The case study scrutinizes the building of the Heart of Green School (HGS) inside the Green School Complex in Bali, Indonesia. It was selected to enlighten further the application of bamboo as key building materials, the complexity of the design and the technique of construction. HGS, as the main building in the Green School Complex, shows the ingenuity of the architect to utilize the humble material to its utmost wonder to reveal its aesthetic nature and technique of connections. The case study helps to designate the competence of bamboo as a key building material and construction technique, that respects the environment and fulfill the requirement of sustainable design and green architecture.

3. LITERATURE REVIEW Bamboo has good properties as construction material, for its splendid characteristics such as strong, flexible, straight, even, hard, flush, easy to split, easy to be fabricated and lightweight material. Moreover, bamboo is relatively cheap compared to other building materials because of its availability and easy to be found in all regions in Indonesia (Purwito, 2012). Bamboo belongs to the grass species, and its tensile strength is better than steel. Bamboo can grow ten to thirty percent faster than other trees which only reach two to five percent per year and the production of fifty to one hundred tons per hectare (depending on species, soil and climate). In each colony bamboo plants consist of sixty to seventy percent stems ten to fifteen percent branches and fifteen to twenty percent leaves. Bamboo plants are good to speed up groundwater recycle processes, even two hundred and forty percent better than a pine forest. It has been used for soil consolidation, where its roots have strong properties to retain soil erosion. On the other hand, bamboo plants absorb CO2 as

Bambang Karsono, Mohamad Arar, Julaihi Wahid, Bassim Saleh

much as sixty-two tons per hectare per year, which is four times larger than other forest plant species that can only absorb fifteen tons per hectare each year. Bamboo also releases O2 thirty-five percent higher than other forest plants during the photosynthesis process (Jansen, 2000). The bamboo plant grows plentifully in tropical and sub-tropical countries. In recent years, scholars clarify two important characteristics regarding cultivation and engineering properties of bamboo, such as: 1)

bamboo can grow faster even in an extreme climatic region (Zhou, 1993),

it has good properties and many advantages, especially in bending and tensile. It overtakes other composite materials (Janssen, 1991).

Scholars have evaluated some famous bamboo species regarding their physical and mechanical properties. They indicate the various density of bamboo between 500 to 800 kg/m3. It also indicates a different density according to the quantity and distribution of its fibre around the culm. Naturally, the density will grow from the centre of the culm to the periphery: from the base until the top of the culm. Usually, after three years, the maximum density will be achieved to a certain level (Espiloy, 1994). Bamboo has excellent properties in tensile strength depending on the species and the climatic condition where it is planted. The tensile strength also differs according to the lengthwise and course of the stems. The lower part of the stems (stem base) has a higher tensile strength than the upper. However, the upper stems have a higher bending strength than the lower part (Kabir et al., 1993). The strength inside the bamboo stems itself is formed during the third to the fourth year of growing, then it will decrease gradually. Therefore, the maturity period of the bamboo stems can be considered around three to four years in relation to its strength and density. The good quality of the stem maturity is crucial and is a prerequisite for the finest utilization of bamboo in building construction and other structural applications. Formerly, most buildings in Indonesia and Southeast Asian countries used bamboo straight away as both structural and non-structural materials. The mass application of bamboo is used in traditional buildings and shelters because it is abundant in the region. Besides, it can grow faster than other kinds of plants. However, bamboo is rarely used as a building material is for it signifies the backward rural traditions. Nowadays, many modern builders believe that bamboo has a shabby image and considered it as inexpensive materials and rated it as 'poor-people' material (Lobokivov et al., 2009). In general, the choice of steel, brick, or concrete is preferable that symbolize modern materials. Currently, in line with the issues of global warming and sustainability, bamboo re-emerges as an alternative material to be used in building construction. Perhaps the difficulty to get them straight and quality timber for building construction as well as mass-deforestation issues become a major concern. Now, the people turn to bamboo and bamboo can be harvested between 3-5 years, meanwhile wood requires a longer time to grow to be utilized as construction materials. In addition, the bamboo plants can release excessive oxygen into the air. This is the advantage of bamboo as compared to mass-industrial materials such as steel, plastic, and concrete. Therefore, bamboo has broadly recognized as a sustainable material for building construction.

*Corresponding author (Bambang Karsono) Email: kbambang@unimas.myÂŠ2020

4. CASE STUDY: GREEN SCHOOL, BALI, INDONESIA Green School is sited in Banjar Saren, Kampung Sibang Kaja, Abiansemal, Badung, which is about thirty kilometres away from downtown Denpasar, Bali. The school has won the Aga Khan Award for the recycle category in 2010. Green School was operated in May 2009 with a current capacity of 700 students. It is clustered into kindergarten, elementary and junior high school. John Hardy, a Canadian businessman who has lived in Bali for over 30 years, was initiated the school. His devotion and passion for the Balinese culture, education, and environment led him to establish the school. According to him, the earliest idea of the school was to cover an area of 20-hectare land. He was influenced by the traditional philosophy of life in Bali known as Trihita Karana which is based on the three principles of nature namely: harmony amongst the people, harmony to environment and nature and harmony to God. In each process, there are no manufactured materials or chemicals were used in the construction of the school. The school complex was built using an organic permaculture system and was designed to adapt in perfect cohesion with soil ecology. All buildings inside the school complex were intended to develop a civilization that respects nature by utilizing organic materials and renewable energy sources, such as micro hydropower, solar power, and bio-diesel. On the contrary, each building was not designed by an architect, instead of by a team of electrical engineers, designers and bamboo artists in Bali (Figure1).

3rdFloor Plan

Side View & Elevation 2ndFloor Plan

1stFloor Plan

Front View & Elevation

Figure 1: Orthographic drawing of ‘Heart of Green School’ Building

The layout of the building responses to the natural orientation, consisting of several building masses. The school complex was sited dominantly, among the masses and is used according to the functions as follows: classroom, laboratory, multi-function hall, office, student dormitory, teacher’s house, etc. The design of the building form was revised several times to suit its structure and construction system. A two to three storeys building is located at the centre of the site as the main building (HGS) that is dominated by three spherical shapes resemblance the nautilus shell of the complex. This nautilus takes after the roof that linked to the wide envelope below the building, while smaller size nautilus is connected harmoniously in a continuous order of expected nautilus shape (Figure 1).

Bambang Karsono, Mohamad Arar, Julaihi Wahid, Bassim Saleh

5. DISCUSSION The observation from the case study shows that the Heart of the Green School (HGS) functioned as an office is a two to a three-story building surrounded by a double elliptical plan pattern, whereas three spiral-shaped staircases are directed into three core systems of the building to secure and stabilize the building structure. The cores are the highest level which is pragmatically connected to form a single structure building within the spiral organization. Three types of local bamboo were used in the HGS construction system, namely Dendrocalamus asper (bamboo petung), Gigantochloa apus (bamboo rope), and Bambusa blumeana (bamboo thorn). The roof structure of each building is covered with bundles of cogon grass (Imperata cylindrica), while an alternate combination of bamboo, clay, mud, and kapok was also used to construct the wall. It is distinguished that the HGS building is taking an organic shape, where arches, spline, and other curvature profiles have naturally supported the weight above; thus, bamboo is the most appropriate material to achieve these (Figure 2). The lightweight of bamboo enabled the integration of the roof and supporting structure cohesively. Many scholars had characterized two types of techniques in bending the bamboo for construction purposes (Dunkelberg, 1985), i.e., hot and cold method. Hot bending technique acknowledged by dipping the bamboo in lukewarm water to soften the fibres tolerably to be bent by using the clamp accordingly, or by heating up a certain part of the bamboo to a specific heat usually below 150 degrees Celcius. Whereas cold bending technique can be finished by splitting the bamboo into flat strips then tie them together as a wad, another way is by slicing bamboo stems to form a curvature. These two techniques can create smooth or segmented bamboo curvature that may upgrade or reduce the strength of bamboo (Maurina, et al., 2015). The splitting method is applied in the HGS structure system, mainly to support the arches that distribute the structure into spaces for the classrooms. However, this splitting technique may reduce the strength properties of bamboo which have consequences to trigger a structural deformation or deflection (Maurina, et al., 2015). The correct dimension must be equivalent to the span as required to avoid deformation or deflection of the structural system.

Figure 2: Organic-nautilus shape of HGS building. HGS implemented the active-structure system with its organic-nautilus shape (Maurina, et al., 2014). The organic-nautilus shell shape is generated to tackle the surface structure by using bamboo pillars to support its battens, rafters, and purlins (Figure 3). The system resembles a tensile structure system while the round purlins help to provide a continuous strength to support the shell shape of the roof. In lieu of the main hall space, a wide-span arches structure system helped to stabilize the *Corresponding author (Bambang Karsono) Email: kbambang@unimas.myÂŠ2020

roof by rafters applied along the eaves to produce better protection from tropical wind, sunlight and rain.

Figure 3: Interior shows the structural system. In terms of the structure properties, Dendrocalamus asper (bamboo petung) is stiff, high strength and compressive value are used as columns for it enables to bear the compressive force as well as to sustain deflection risk. On the other hand, Gigantochloa apus (bamboo rope) was used for small beam as well as to support floor plate, roof frame, and rafter. It also possesses the same value on flexural, tensile and compressive strength. together, laminated split bamboo was used to bind the vertical core structure.

6. CONCLUSION The utilization of bamboo for building construction material in creative and innovative ways could create an interesting architectural structure and give a good choice in architectural design. As applied in Green School, the potential of bamboo was explored in the design and construction, which created a good image that fits the purpose and blends with nature harmoniously. Implementation of bamboo for building construction material has to be explored further, especially to promote appropriate technology and create employment among the locals. The skill of the craftsman, as well as the technique of construction, has to be refined. Although there were several new techniques applied to bend the bamboo to get the preferred

Bambang Karsono, Mohamad Arar, Julaihi Wahid, Bassim Saleh

shape and form, yet hot and cold bending technique is still popular and commonly used to achieve an interesting organic shape as that of HGS. Therefore, awareness concerning the nature and properties of bamboo is necessary in this case. Correspondingly, the understanding of the appropriate structure system and also bending technique is compulsory. Nevertheless, to classify bamboo as a sustainable material to be used for building construction is still debatable, particularly concerning its chemical treatment preservation method. It is necessary to accomplish further research to find out appropriate and environmentally friendly preservation methods that require natural or non-chemical ingredients to reduce the negative impact on the environment.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

8. REFERENCES Dunkelberg, K., (1985), Bambus Bamboo. Germany: Institut fur Leichte Flachentragwerke (IL). Espiloy, Z.B. (1991), Effect of age on the physico-mechanical properties of some Philippine bamboo. In Bamboo in Asia and the Pacific. Proceedings of the 4th International Bamboo Workshop, Chiangmai, Thailand, 27-30 November 1991, 180-182. Jansen, J.J.A, (2000), Designing and Building with Bamboo. Technical Report No. 20: International Network for Bamboo and Rattan (INBAR), 2000. Janssen, J.J.A. (1990), The importance of bamboo as a building material, in Ramanuja Rao, IV.; Gnanaharan, R.; Sastry, C.B., ed., Bamboos: current research. Proceedings of the International Bamboo Workshop, Cochin, India, 14-18 November 1988. Kerala Forest. Kabir, M.F., Bhattacharjee, D.K., Sattar, M.A., (1993), Effect of age and height on strength properties of Dendrocalamus longispaths. Bamboo Information Centre India Bulletin 3(l), 11-15. Lobokivov, M., Lou, Y., Schoene, D., Widenoja, R., (2009), The Poor Man’s Carbon Sink: Bamboo in Climate Change and Poverty Alleviation. Rome: FAO. Maurina, A., (2015), “Curved Bamboo Structural Element” in 2015 Proceeding of International Construction Workshop and Conference Parahyangan Bamboo Nation 2, 81-92. Maurina, A., Sari, W.E., Krisanti, J., Adhisaksana, J., (2014) Komparasi Penggunaan Material Bambu dalam Struktur ‘Form Active’ dan ‘Semi Form Active’ pada Bangunan Lengkung Berbentang Lebar, Bandung: Universitas Katolik Parahyangan. Purwito, (2008), “Standarisasi Bambu sebagai Bahan Bangunan Alternatif Pengganti Kayu,” in 2008 Prosiding PPI Standardisasi., 1-17. Purwito, (2010), “Laminated Bamboo: The Future Wood,” in 2015 Proceeding of International Construction Workshop and Conference Parahyangan Bamboo Nation 2, 19-58. *Corresponding author (Bambang Karsono) Email: kbambang@unimas.my©2020

Zhou, F., (1993), Bamboo cultivation. Bamboo Research, (Sum no. 47), No. 1, l-10. Dr.Bambang Karsono is a Senior Lecturer in Architecture at the Department of Architecture, Faculty of Built Environment at University Malaysia Sarawak. He has taught at University Pancabudi, Medan, North Sumatera and also University Malikussaleh, Lhokseumawe, Aceh, Indonesia. He received his PhD in Urban Design from University Sains Malaysia, his M. Arch from Institute of Technology Bandung, Indonesia and B.Arch from Institute Technology Medan, North Sumatera. He is also a professional Architect. His research focuses on Urban Design and Landscape Architecture. Dr. Mohamad Shihadeh A. Arar is an Associate Professor at the Architectural Engineering Department, College of Engineering at Ajman University (AU). He completed his PhD study in Urban and Environmental Studies from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York, USA, his Master of Architecture from California State Polytechnic University, Los Angeles, California. Dr. Arar received two Undergraduate degrees: Bachelor of Architecture and Bachelor of City and Regional Planning from University of Louisiana, USA. Dr. Ararâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s research focuses on Urban Planning and Design, Sustainability in Architectural and Urban Development, Architectural Design Development. Professor Dr. Julaihi Wahid is Professor at the Department of Architecture, Faculty of Built Environment at University Malaysia Sarawak. Formerly he taught at Department of Architecture Engineering, College of Engineering at Ajman University, UAE. He received his PhD in Housing and Architecture at the University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, Newcastle, England, his M.Arch. (Community/Urban Design) from Kansas while B.Arch and BSc (Architectural Studies) from Washington, USA. His research encompasses Commercial Complexes and Mixed Development, Community and Urban Design and Housing Studies. Dr.Bassim Saleh is an Assistant Professor at Department of Architecture, College of Engineering, Ajman University. He received his M.Arch and PhD in Architecture from University of Strathclyde, Scotland, UK, his BSc. Architecture from University of Ain Shams, Cairo. He did Post Doctorate Research at University of Arizona, Tucson, USA. His research is Urban Design Pedagogy, Desert Architecture, Sustainable Architecture.

Bambang Karsono, Mohamad Arar, Julaihi Wahid, Bassim Saleh

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07N

NEXUS OF FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY AND INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY Irfan-Ullah 1

, Usman Ayub , Hashim Khan

Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University, Islamabad, PAKISTAN.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 09 September 2019 Received in revised form 29 January 2020 Accepted 14 February 2020 Available online 19 February 2020

In this paper, the bi-directional relationship between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency is examined. Prior studies suggest that financial reporting quality improves the investment efficiency of firms. Using firm-level data one measure of financial reporting quality namely liability side accrual quality confirms this association. Further, we find that firms involve in accruals earnings management thereby decreasing financial reporting quality in an attempt to conceal firm performance from outsiders. Our measure of investment efficiency excessively predicts financial reporting quality. This relationship can be seen for both proxies of financial reporting qualityasset side accruals quality and liability side accruals quality. Results on the two-way relationship between variables are robust even when we use total accruals quality as an alternative proxy of financial reporting quality.

Keywords: Asset side accruals quality; Liability side accruals quality; Earnings management; Adverse selection; Moral hazard.

1. INTRODUCTION In light of Jensen and Meckling (1976) seminal work, finance scholars perceive a company as a nexus of contractual relationships between different interested groups. These relationships exist between various stakeholders of firms such as between shareholders (principals) and managers (agents); shareholders (principals) and shareholders (principals); and creditors (principals) and shareholders (agents). This agency relationship which makes bases of agency theory is defined as a contract between a person (principal) and another person (the agent) under which agent performs some duties on behalf of principal; and the principal pays the agent for their duties (Jensen and Meckling, 1976). As the interests of both parties are not aligned, conflict is aroused. This conflict of interest is named the agency problem. In the neoclassical approach, managerial investment behavior is a sole determinant of marginal q (Hayashi, 1982). In other words, companies should continue to invest as long as the marginal *Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Tel: +92-3459661996. Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ©2020

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07N http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.134

benefits of investment are greater than the marginal cost. However existing literature provides evidence that due to agency problems management either under-invest or over-invest to get incentives. The intuition is that outside investors usually do not take part in business operations as its responsibility is assigned to the management of firms. Due to the nature of jobs, management has more information than shareholders. Information asymmetry increases when due to agency conflict managers do not disseminate important information through financial reports to investors or convey incorrect information to mislead investors (Healy & Wahlen, 1999). Information asymmetry has two consequences. One is the adverse selection and the other is a moral hazard that leads to inefficient investments by the firm (Biddle et al., 2009). On the other hand quality financial reporting diminishes asymmetric information between managers and shareholders, thereby mitigates problems of moral hazard and adverse selection (Verdi, 2006). Biddle et al., (2009) define financial reporting quality as the accuracy of financial reports through which management conveys information to stakeholders of the firm on business activities, particularly about cash flows expected from these activities. Researchers mainly use proxies of earnings management to examine the reporting quality of firms. Earnings management is closely related to attributes of financial reporting quality. For instance, Lara et al. (2016) find that earnings management is negatively associated with earnings conservatism. Park & Shin (2004) show that more managed earnings are less persistent. Mainly managers of firms involve in earnings management to get capital market incentives. Such as Barth et al. (1999) identified higher stock prices for firms having managed earnings. Bartov et al. (2002) find better performance for firms that meet earnings targets. According to the neoclassical approach, efficient investments are those projects that are accepted based on having positive net present (NPV), therefore it is assumed that these projects when are taken, generate cash for a firm that increases firmâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s earnings. In contrast, inefficient investments are not based on fundamentals and have negative consequences on firm performance. Firms mostly involve in accruals manipulation to avoid a decline in earnings (Burgstahler and Dichev, 1997). Therefore relying on empirical evidence, it can be assumed that the investment efficiency of projects affects managerial earnings management activities to achieve desired earnings targets (Rahmatullin, 2019). This study follows ways to the empirical literature on the relationship between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency. First, a two-way relationship that is a simultaneous relationship between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency is examined in bank centered economy of Pakistan, not studied before. Second in prior literature financial reporting quality of firms is mostly measured through discretionary accruals by applying the modified Jones model. Whereas this study uses the magnitude of aggregate asset side accruals and magnitude of aggregate liability side accruals as proxies of financial reporting quality.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT Schipper and Vincent (2003) argue that stakeholders of the firm require accurate financial information for their investment decisions and low-quality information can deceive investors. Financial information serves capital markets and assists in optimal resource allocation. If earnings information is only based on judgments about future events then it has adverse effects on investors

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

specifically and employees and other people generally (Pergola and Verreault, 2009). McNichols and Stubben (2008) examine the association between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency. They identify that the investment efficiency of firms having managed earnings figures is low. Comparing to firms having unmanaged earnings, firms with managed earnings have a higher likelihood to overinvest in fixed assets. Biddle and Hilary (2006) examine the association between reporting quality and investmentcash flow sensitivity of firms. Their study shows that financial reporting quality is negatively associated with investment-cash flow sensitivity. Further, the negative relationship between variables is more pronounced in economies where firms rely on the stock market to finance projects. Verdi (2006) studies the association between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency of firms prone to deviate from optimal investment. It is concluded that the financial reporting quality decreases overinvestment when a firm has much cash resources to invest and ownership structure is dispersed. Similarly financial reporting quality decreases underinvestment when firms are financially constrained. Biddle at al. (2009) examine whether financial reporting quality affects the investment efficiency of firms. Results of their study are a) reporting quality negatively affects investment when a firm has much cash resources to invest (financially unconstrained) and proportion of equity financing is high b) reporting quality increases investment when firms are financially constrained and proportion of equity financing is low and c) reporting quality is negatively related with inefficient investments as measured by firm deviation from optimal investment. In lines with previous literature (for example, Leuz et al., 2003 use magnitude of total accruals as a proxy of accruals earnings management) we segregate total accruals into its components- asset side accruals and liability side accruals; and construct proxies of financial reporting quality separate for each category of accruals. Thus following two hypotheses are developed to study the relationship between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency: H#1a: Financial reporting quality based on asset side accruals positively affects investment efficiency H#1b: Financial reporting quality based on liability side accruals positively affects investment efficiency Prior literature documents that corporate insiders have different motives to manage earnings numbers and therefore misrepresent firm performance (see, e.g., Leuz et al., 2003; Shleifer and Vishny, 1997). Hope et al.,(2013) assert that management of firms engage in increasing or decreasing earnings management to get consistent earnings figures keeping in view current firm performance. Such that when firm performance is low they are motivated to involve in upward earnings management to meet benchmarks. On the other hand, when a firm is performing well, they tend to manage accruals downwards to beat the benchmark to some extent. In this way managers reserve earnings that may be reversed through upward earnings management in the future when firm performance is poor (Jackson and Liu 2010). Graham et al. (2005) survey show that firms mostly set previous year earnings as a benchmark for the current year. Oppositely, investment efficiency affects firm performance. In the neoclassical approach investments based on positive (negative) NPV are considered efficient (inefficient). In other words *Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Tel: +92-3459661996. Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07N http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.134

efficient (inefficient) investments when undertaken have positive (negative) effects on operating cash flows subsequently and consequently on net income. Barth et al. (1999) show that stockholders reward firms in the shape of higher share price for their consistent earnings increases and that share price fall when earning decreases. Bartov et al. (2000) reported that managers engage in earnings management when a firm generates less cash from business activities and its ROA is low. Based on previous literature, thus investment efficiency is a determinant of earnings management that is managers by considering the efficiency of a firmâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s investments formulates strategies to report accruals to get persistent earnings numbers consequently affecting financial reporting quality. The hypotheses are developed to examine the effects of investment efficiency H#2a: Investment efficiency positively affects financial reporting quality based on asset side accruals H#2b: Investment efficiency positively affects financial reporting quality based on liability side accruals

3. METHODOLOGY We propose a methodology to test hypotheses already developed based on the nature of the relationship between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency in Section 2. We proceed by first collecting data on the variables of the study. For this purpose, we select nonfinancial firms that were listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) for 2008-2018 as our target sample. As some variables of the study have lag year calculations, therefore earlier yearsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; data of 2004 and onwards are also used in some cases. Next, firm-year observations with missing variables data are removed. Thus, our sample is reduced to 290 firms having data range 2008-2018. The data source used is Banker Thomson DataStream.

3.1 VARIABLES MEASUREMENT The main variables include financial reporting quality and investment inefficiency. Several control variables are also used along with the main independent variables. Measurement of variables is as follows: 3.1.1 FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY Our proxies of financial reporting quality base on the magnitude of aggregate asset side accruals and aggregate liability side accruals. Where ceteris pubis higher magnitude of accruals means that managers availed more chances to manage earnings and resulted in financial reports have low quality. Specifically, we compute asset side accruals quality and liability side accruals quality of firm as đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą =

đ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ??żđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą =

đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D;đ?&#x2018;&#x17D; đ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

* (-1)

(1),

* (-1)

(2).

AAQ stands for assets side accruals quality which equals the ratio of absolute change in total current assets excluding cash and short term investments (abs đ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľ) to total assets (TA), multiplied by -1. LAQ is shortened for liabilities side accruals quality. It equals to the ratio of absolute change in total liabilities (abs đ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľđ?&#x203A;Ľ) to total assets (TA), multiplied by -1. Both ratios are multiplied by -1 so that low value of it shows low financial reporting quality due to high accruals. Subscripts i,t denote

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

firm and year respectively. In both Equations, total assets are used to remove size effects. 3.1.2 INVESTMENT INEFFICIENCY The investment inefficiency variable is measured as the residuals of a model that predicts the investment of the firm as a function of its growth opportunities (e.g., Biddle et al. 2009). Negative residuals show that the firm invested less than expected investment (underinvestment). On the other hand, positive residuals identify that the firm invested more than expected investment (overinvestment). Absolute values of both underinvestment and overinvestment are combined with the investment inefficiency variable. The estimated model is đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąâ&#x2C6;&#x2019;1 + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;, đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(3).

Investment (Inv) represents the sum of capital expenditures and research and development (R& D) expenditures less sale of property, plant, and equipment (PPE) in the current year and sales growth (SG) shows the change in sales in the previous year. Sales growth serves as a proxy of growth opportunities for firms (Biddle et al., 2009). The above model is estimated through least squares for each industry group based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system each year with at least 10 observations in a given year from 2008 to 2018. 3.1.3 CONTROL VARIABLES A list of all control variables used in each equation is given in Table 1. Table 1: Control variables, its calculation, and studies on it Ser 1

Model Variable Name Calculation Size Natural log of total assets Leverage

Growth

Tangibility

5 6 7

Investment Efficiency

CFOSales StdCFO

StdSales StdInv

Loss

Age

1 2 3 4

Size Leverage Growth CFOSales

Financial reporting quality

The market value of stockholders equity divided by book value of stockholders equity PPE divided by total assets

Financial slack Cash and cash equivalent divided by PPE

5 6

Total debt divided by total assets

Loss Age

Cash flows from operations divided by total sales The standard deviation of operating cash flow divided by total assets for the previous five years The standard deviation of sales divided by total assets for the previous five years The standard deviation of total investment including capital expenditure and R&D expenditure for the previous five years Dummy variable, value â&#x20AC;&#x153;1â&#x20AC;? for the loss by the firm in the previous year and â&#x20AC;&#x153;0â&#x20AC;? otherwise Natural log of the difference between the year of establishment of firm and current year

Studied by Shahzad et al. (2019); Houcine (2017), Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009) Shahzad et al.., (2019), Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009) Shahzad et al. (2019) and Houcine (2017) Shahzad et al. (2019), Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009) Houcine (2017), Lara et al. (2016) and Wang et al. (2011) Houcine (2017), Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009)

Lara et al. (2016) and Biddle et al.(2009)

Houcine (2017) and Lara et al. (2016)

Shahzad et al. (2019), Lara et al.., (2016) and Biddle et al. (2009) Shahzad et al. (2019), Houcine (2017) and Lara et al. (2016) Hope et al. (2013), Wang (2006), Abdul Rahman & Ali (2006) and Bartov et al. (2000)

Same as calculated for Investment efficiency model

Abdul Rahman & Ali (2006) and Bartov et al. (2000) Wang (2006) and Cheng & Warfield (2005) Wang (2006), Anderson & Reeb (2003a)

*Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Tel: +92-3459661996. Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07N http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.134

3.2 MODEL Following prior literature (e.g., Houcine, 2017 and Lara et al., 2016) Equation (4) is to test the effects of financial reporting quality on investment efficiency. Further, based on literature, this study hypothesizes investment efficiency as a determinant of financial reporting quality. Thus a new variable of investment efficiency is added to Equation (5) of financial reporting quality already developed by previous scholars (e.g., Wang, 2006). đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 = đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝1 + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝2 đ??šđ??šđ??šđ??šđ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝3 đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??ś đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + â&#x201E;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(4)

(5) đ??šđ??šđ??šđ??šđ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź2 đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź3 đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??ś đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + â&#x201E;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą IE is investment inefficiency defined as residual from parsimonious investment Equation (3). FRQ is financial reporting quality based on the magnitude of assets side accruals or liabilities side accruals calculated from Equations (1) and (2), respectively. Control variables of the respective equation and its calculation are given in Table 1. Subscripts i and t are used to denote firm and year respectively. The dependent variable is based on the future year and independent variables correspond to current year observations of the firm.

4. RESULTS 4.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS In Table 2 Panel (A) descriptive statistics of investment inefficiency (Raw form), its components underinvestment and overinvestment; and asset side accruals quality (AAQ), liability side accruals quality (LAQ) and control variables are provided. Summarized results show that 63% of firms belong to underinvestment groups while the remaining 37% belong to the overinvestment group. The average total assets are 18410 million Rs. On average, sample firms finance 57 % of their total assets by debt. Sample firms include both young and old firms. The minimum value of firm age is 3 years and the maximum value of age is 158 years during the study period extended for 2008-2018.

4.2 CORRELATION ANALYSIS Table 2 (Panel B) provides Pearson correlations between investment inefficiency (based on future year observations) and other variables (based on current year observations). Among variables, a maximum correlation exists between firm size and standard deviation of investment. Its correlation coefficient is 0.62 which is greater than -0.7 and less than 0.7. So there are no chances of multicollinearity between explanatory variables and unbiased regression estimates can be obtained through regression analysis in the next step. The first measure of financial reporting qualityasset side accruals quality (AAQ) has an insignificant positive correlation with investment inefficiency. The second measure of financial reporting quality- liability side accruals quality (LAQ) has a significant negative correlation with investment inefficiency. Table 2 (Panel C) provides Pearson correlations between proxies of financial reporting quality (based on future year observations) and other variables (based on current year observations). Here maximum correlation exists between leverage and loss. Its correlation coefficient value is 0.41 which is greater than -0.7 and less than 0.7. This value can be justified for no multicollinearity between independent variables and therefore no issues will be raised in regression analysis. Investment inefficiency is negatively correlated with both asset side accruals quality and liability side accruals quality. However correlation between investment inefficiency and liability side

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

accruals quality is only significant. Table 2 (Panel-A): Descriptive statistics. Variable

Mean

Median

Maximum

Minimum

Observations

INV INEFFICIENCY RAW 0.002 -0.015 1.834 -0.758 0.1 2290 UNDERINVESTMENT 0.04 0.034 0.758 0 0.039 1443 OVERINVESTMENT 0.075 0.037 1.834 0 0.127 847 AAQ -0.088 -0.057 0 -2.762 0.112 2290 LAQ -0.101 -0.068 0 -0.697 0.101 2290 ASSETS 18410.61 4372.879 666477.2 71.801 50203.71 2290 LEVERAGE 0.573 0.56 3.739 0.007 0.306 2290 GROWTH 1.819 0.773 248.223 -127.809 8.033 2290 TANGIBILITY 0.473 0.472 0.985 0 0.221 2290 SLACK 0.072 0.022 0.888 0 0.112 2290 CFOSALE -0.073 0.049 2.882 -103.73 3.009 2290 STDCFO 0.094 0.077 0.637 0.003 0.07 2290 STDINV 551.893 101.981 23461.9 0 1590.268 2290 STDSALE 0.361 0.257 6.384 0.003 0.384 2290 LOSS 0.237 0 1 0 0.425 2290 AGE 39.128 34 158 3 20.403 2290 Inv Inefficiency Raw is the signed residuals from Equation (3). Underinvestment is a negative residual from Equation (3) multiplied by -1. Overinvestment is positive residuals from Equation (3), Assets are reported in million Rs. Age is in years

0.184*** 0.185*** 0.047** 0.087*** -0.245*** 0.021

0.005 0.195*** -0.068*** -0.261*** 0.014

-0.095*** 0.326*** -0.067*** -0.083***

-0.150*** -0.055*** 0.031

-0.090*** -0.092***

LOSS

STDSALES

STDINV

-0.421*** 0.043** -0.222*** 0.135*** -0.202*** 0.264*** -0.059***

STDCFO

-0.155*** 0.145*** 0.124*** 0.115*** 0.074*** 0.074*** -0.127*** 0.077***

CFOSALE

-0.03 0.248*** -0.341*** -0.317*** -0.044** 0.013 0.078*** 0.416*** -0.053**

SLACK

-0.073*** 0.114*** -0.028 0.189*** 0.222*** -0.111*** 0.629*** -0.204*** -0.154*** 0.077***

TANGIBILITY

0.013 -0.211*** -0.026 0.056*** 0.049** 0.113*** -0.156*** 0.042** -0.171*** 0.035* 0.034

GROWTH

0.472*** 0.066*** -0.032 -0.017 0.334*** -0.085*** 0.127*** -0.212*** 0.112*** -0.239*** 0.092*** -0.004

LEVERAGE

SIZE

0.006 -0.043** -0.001 -0.05 0.072*** 0.012 0.033 0.004 0.017 -0.014** 0.003 -0.068*** 0.02

LAQ

AAQ LAQ SIZE LEVERAGE GROWTH TANGIBILITY SLACK CFOSALE STDCFO STDINV STDSALES LOSS LNAGE

AAQ

Variable

INV INEFFICIENCY

Table 2 (Panel-B): Pearson correlations between investment inefficiency (based on future year observations) and other variables (based on current year observations).

-0.064***

Inv Inefficiency is the absolute value of residuals from Equation (3). *,** and *** show significance at 10%, 5% and 1% significance level.

Table 2 (Panel-C): Pearson correlations between proxies of financial reporting quality (based on future year observations) and other variables (based on current year observations). LAQ

Variable

AAQ 0.445***

LAQ

INV INEFFICIENCY

SIZE

INV INEFFICIENCY SIZE LEVERAGE

-0.033 -0.090*** 0.085*** 0.028 -0.024 -0.190***

0.035* 0.036*

-0.073***

GROWTH CFOSALE LOSS

-0.024 -0.060*** 0.027 0.060*** 0.073*** 0.006

0.063*** -0.033 -0.033

0.114*** -0.03 0.222*** -0.317*** -0.154*** 0.416***

LNAGE -0.019 0.047** -0.005 0.077*** *,** and *** show significance at 10%, 5% and 1% significance level

LEVERAGE GROWTH CFOSALE LOSS

-0.053**

0.124*** -0.127*** -0.261*** 0.077***

0.014

-0.064**

4.3 ESTIMATION RESULTS Table 3 (first three columns) reports results on regression analysis performed to test H#1a. The *Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Tel: +92-3459661996. Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com Â©2020

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07N http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.134

model has adjusted R-square of 6.9%. Low adjusted R-square may be due to a small number of data periods and independent variables. Further, it seems that in the Pakistani context there are other variables also that affect the investment efficiency of firms not included in this study. On the part of slope coefficients, results do not reject our assumed null hypothesis that financial reporting quality (asset side accruals quality) does not affect positively investment efficiency (β= -0.003, t= -0.268). Results on testing H#1b are provided in Table 3 (last three columns). The model has adjusted Rsquare of 7%. Coefficient on liability side accruals quality (LAQ) is negative and significant at 10% significance level (β = -0.022, t= -1.64). In the earlier analysis, we find an insignificant negative coefficient value for asset side accruals quality (AAQ) in relationship with investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency). On part of liability side accruals quality (LAQ) significant negative relationship shows that in contrary to asset side accruals, investors in Pakistan weight to liability side accruals while making investment decisions. This makes firm ease in raising funds for launching efficient projects. Table 3: Regression results on Effect of Financial Reporting Quality on Investment Efficiency (H#1a result (Equation (4)): Dependent variable: Investment Inefficiency). Variable Coefficient AAQ -0.003 SIZE -0.018 LEVERAGE -0.043 GROWTH 0.002 TANGIBILITY -0.009 SLACK 0.095 CFOSALE -0.018 STDCFO -0.016 STDINV 0.001 STDSALE -0.001 LOSS -0.003 LNAGE 0.035 C 0.113 Adjusted R-squared F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Firm fixed effect Correction for Heteroscedasticity

t-Statistic -0.268 -2.751 -3.966 2.433 -0.355 5.176 -2.864 -0.716 -2.55 -0.337 -0.908 1.406 1.251 0.069 1.568 0 Yes Yes

Variable LAQ

Coefficient t-Statistic -0.022 -1.649 -0.019 -2.905 -0.045 -4.413 0.002 2.404 -0.01 -0.43 0.096 5.356 -0.017 -2.756 -0.014 -0.659 0.001 -2.505 -0.001 -0.431 -0.003 -0.784 0.036 1.464 0.111 1.253 0.07 1.579 0 Yes Yes

For testing hypothesis H#2a which assumes the negative effect of investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) on asset side accruals quality (AAQ), AAQ is regressed on Inv Inefficiency and results are reported in Table 4 (first three columns). The model has adjusted R-square of 24.7%. Inv Inefficiency has significant negative coefficient value (β = -0.268, t= -5.077). Thus increase in investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) negatively affects financial reporting quality (AAQ) of the firm. In other words, when investment efficiency is low, managers mask true underlying firm performance by managing asset side accruals leading to inferior financial reporting quality. Results on testing H#2b are presented in Table 4 (last two columns). The model of liability side accruals quality (LAQ) in relation to investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) has adjusted R-square of 16.7 %. Coefficient on Inv Inefficiency is negatively and significantly associated with LAQ (β = 0.134, t= -3.29). Thus increase in investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) negatively affects financial reporting quality (LAQ) of the firm. In other words, when investment efficiency is low, managers mask true underlying firm performance by managing liability side accruals leading to

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

inferior financial reporting quality. Table 4: Result on Effect of Investment Efficiency on Financial Reporting Quality (H#2b result (Equation (5))) Dependent variable: AAQ Variable Coefficient INV INEFFICIENCY -0.097 SIZE 0.019 LEVERAGE -0.028 GROWTH 0 CFOSALE -0.011 LOSS 0.009 LNAGE -0.026 C -0.13 Adjusted R-squared F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Firm fixed effect Correction for Heteroscedasticity

t-Statistic -5.078 1.206 -1.294 -0.575 -0.639 1.917 -0.93 -0.777

Dependent variable: LAQ Coefficient t-Statistic -0.135 -3.3 0.04 4.552 -0.068 -1.615 -0.004 -2.334 0.007 0.427 0.011 1.489 -0.075 -3.207 -0.125 -1.431

0.247 3.55 0 Yes Yes

0.167 2.552 0 Yes Yes

4.4 ROBUSTNESS CHECKS To check the generalizability of the results we perform robustness analysis. It is accomplished by re-examining the relationship between financial reporting quality measured through another proxy and investment efficiency. Our new measure of financial reporting quality uses the magnitude of total accruals as a proxy of earnings management (Leuz et al., 2003). It is computed as đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą =

đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´ đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´đ??´ đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

* (-1)

(6)

In Equation (6) TAQ is total accruals quality. TAC is total accruals in absolute form. TA is the absolute value of total assets. To make the measure of financial reporting quality consistent, the ratio is multiplied by -1 so that the low value of it shows low financial reporting quality due to the high use of accruals. Subscripts i and t show firm and a year respectively. Total assets are used in the denominator to control for differences in firm size. No changes are made in investment inefficiency measures. Models estimated are as follows: (7) đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź2đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź3đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź2đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź3đ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(8)

TAQ is total accruals quality calculated using Equation (6). All other variables in Equations (7) and (8) are the same as used earlier in their respective Equations (4) and (5). Overall, results on the relationship between total accruals quality (TAQ) and investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) are similar to those found through other measures of financial reporting quality (e.g AAQ and LAQ) and investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency). Table 5 (first three columns) reports results on examining the effect of total accruals quality (TAQ) on investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency). The model has adjusted R-square of 7 %. Consistent with AAQ, TAQ makes insignificant negative relationship with Inv Inefficiency (Î˛= -0.0002, t= -0.915). Table 5 (last three columns) provides results on the effect of investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) on total accruals quality (TAQ). The model has adjusted R-square of 13.4%. Coefficient on Inv Inefficiency is negative and significant at 10% significance level (Î˛= -8.37, t= -1.66). Thus, the increase in investment inefficiency (Inv Inefficiency) negatively affects financial reporting quality *Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Tel: +92-3459661996. Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07N http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.134

(TAQ) in the form of high use accruals. Table 5: The effect of total accruals quality (TAQ). Effect of Financial Reporting Quality on Investment Efficiency đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź2 đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź3 đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą Dependent variable- Investment inefficiency Variable Coefficient t-statistic TAQ

-0.0002

-0.915

SIZE LEVERAGE GROWTH TANGIBILITY SLACK CFOSALE STDCFO STDINV STDSALE LOSS LNAGE C

-0.019 -0.043 0.002 -0.010 0.095 -0.018 -0.019 0.000 -0.001 -0.004 0.035 0.115

-2.734 -4.000 2.431 -0.404 5.146 -2.835 -0.815 -2.500 -0.319 -0.975 1.321 1.272

Effect of Investment Efficiency on Financial Reporting Quality đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź1 + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź2 đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź3 đ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;,đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą Dependent variable- Total accruals quality Variable Coefficient t-statistic INV -8.375 -1.662 INEFFICIENCY SIZE -0.299 -0.604 LEVERAGE 2.497 1.217 GROWTH -0.133 -0.862 CFOSALE -0.580 -0.522 LOSS -1.771 -2.894 LNAGE 1.497 0.643 C -5.861 -0.662

Adjusted R-squared

0.070

0.134

F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Firm fixed effect Correction for Heteroscedasticity

1.576 0.000 Yes Yes

2.193 0.000 Yes Yes

5. CONCLUSION The objective of this research was to explore the two-way relationship between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency in the Pakistani context. Financial reporting quality affects investment efficiency in two ways. First, it helps firms in reducing underinvestment by raising funds for investment at a low cost. Second financial reporting quality works as a monitoring tool and avoids firms overinvesting. One of the measures of financial reporting quality used in past literature is based on accruals earnings management. Mostly, researchers use various estimation models such as the Jones model to capture discretionary accruals as a proxy of earnings management. However, these models are criticized by researchers due to measurement error in model estimation. Accruals appearing in the income statement are also reflected in assets and liabilities accounts of the balance sheet. Due to these facts, our measures of earnings management vis-a-vis financial reporting quality are aggregate of asset side accruals and aggregate of liability side accruals. Asset side accruals quality does not make a significant association with investment efficiency. These results can be seen from the perspective that investors in Pakistan do not consider asset side accruals to judge the financial reporting quality of the firm. On the other hand liability side accruals quality positively affects investment efficiency. Thus investors consider liability side accruals while making investment decisions which leads to the efficient investment of firms. Shahzad et al., (2019) using the same context for different time periods examine among others association between financial reporting quality and investment efficiency. Results show that financial reporting quality

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

is positively associated with current year investment efficiency. In our study, we find that financial reporting quality positively affects future year investment efficiency. Thus, it is evidenced that financial reporting quality affects both current and future year investment decisions of firms. On the other hand, findings on the effect of investment efficiency on financial reporting quality show that managers engage in earnings management keeping in view the current year performance of the firm.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES Abdul Rahman, R., & Haneem Mohamed Ali, F. (2006). Board, audit committee, culture and earnings management: Malaysian evidence. Managerial Auditing Journal. 21(7), 783-804. Anderson, R. C., & Reeb, D. M. (2003). Foundingâ&#x20AC;?family ownership and firm performance: evidence from the S&P 500. Journal of Finance. 58(3), 1301-1328. Barth, M. E., Clinch, G., & Shibano, T. (1999). International accounting harmonization and global equity markets. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 26(1-3), 201-235. Bartov, E., Gul, F. A., & Tsui, J. S. (2000). Discretionary-accruals models and audit qualifications. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 30(3), 421-452. Biddle, G. C., & Hilary, G. (2006). Accounting quality and firm-level capital investment. The Accounting Review, 81(5), 963-982. Biddle, G. C., Hilary, G., & Verdi, R. S. (2009). How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency?. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 48(2-3), 112-131. Burgstahler, D., & Dichev, I. (1997). Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 24(1), 99-126. Cheng, Q., & Warfield, T. D. (2005). Equity incentives and earnings management. Accounting Review, 80(2), 441-476. Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Rajgopal, S. (2005). The economic implications of corporate financial reporting. Journal of accounting and economics, 40(1-3), 3-73. Hayashi, F. (1982). Tobin's marginal q and average q: A neoclassical interpretation. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 213-224. Healy, P. M., & Wahlen, J. M. (1999). A review of the earnings management literature and its implications for standard setting. Accounting Horizons, 13(4), 365-383. Hope, O. K., Ma, M. S., & Thomas, W. B. (2013). Tax avoidance and geographic earnings disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 56(2-3), 170-189. Houcine, A. (2017). The effect of financial reporting quality on corporate investment efficiency: Evidence from the Tunisian stock market. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 321-337. Jackson, S. B., & Liu, X. (2010). The allowance for uncollectible accounts, conservatism, and earnings management. Journal of Accounting Research, 48(3), 565-601.

*Corresponding author (Irfan-Ullah). Tel: +92-3459661996. Email: irfanullah429@yahoo.com ÂŠ2020

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07N http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07N.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.134

Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360. Lara, J. M. G., Osma, B. G., & Penalva, F. (2016). Accounting conservatism and firm investment efficiency. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 61(1), 221-238. Leuz, C., Nanda, D., & Wysocki, P. D. (2003). Earnings management and investor protection: an international comparison. Journal of Financial Economics, 69(3), 505-527. McNichols, M. F., & Stubben, S. R. (2008). Does earnings management affect firmsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; investment decisions? Accounting Review, 83(6), 1571-1603. Park, Y. W., & Shin, H. H. (2004). Board composition and earnings management in Canada. Journal of Corporate Finance, 10(3), 431-457. Pergola, T. M., & Verreault, D. A. (2009). Motivations and potential monitoring effects of large shareholders. Corporate Governance: The International Journal of Business in Society, 9(5), 551-563. Rahmatullin, N.V., Guzelbaeva, G.T. (2019). Digital Audit as a Factor of Business Efficiency. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 10(18), 10A18F: 1-9. Schipper, K., & Vincent, L. (2003). Earnings quality. Accounting Horizons, 17, 97-110 Shahzad, F., Rehman, I. U., Colombage, S., & Nawaz, F. (2019). Financial reporting quality, family ownership, and investment efficiency: An empirical investigation. Managerial Finance, 45(4), 513-535. Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1997). A survey of corporate governance. Journal of Finance, 52(2), 737-783. Verdi, R. S. (2006). Financial reporting quality and investment efficiency. SSRN 930922. Wang, D. (2006). Founding family ownership and earnings quality. Journal of Accounting Research, 44(3), 619-656. Irfan Ullah is a PhD scholar at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. He got his Masterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree in Finance, from International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan. His research interests include Corporate Governance, Earnings Management, Financial Reporting Quality and Assets Mispricing.

Dr. Usman Ayub is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. His research interests are Portfolio Theory, Asset Pricing, Corporate Finance, Fuzzy Sets, Artificial Neural Networks and Islamic Finance.

Dr. Hashim Khan is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. He is interested in Corporate Governance, Earnings Management, Financial Reporting Quality and Corporate Fraud.

Irfan-Ullah, Usman Ayub, Hashim Khan

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07O

FACTORS INFLUENCING ISLAMIC BANKING ADOPTION: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN Muhammad Yar Khan

, Faiza Saleem , Majid Jamal Khan , Shahab Ud Din

Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University, Islamabad, Wah Campus, PAKISTAN. Department of Management Sciences, University of Wah, Wah Cantt, PAKISTAN. 3 Department of Business Administration, Karakoram International University, Ghizer Campus, PAKISTAN. 2

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 24 May 2019 Received in revised form 14 January 2020 Accepted 22 January 2020 Available online 19 February 2020

This study aims to examine the major factors influencing the Islamic Banking (IB) adoption of Pakistani customers. The data is collected from 279 conventional bank customers based in Rawalpindi and Islamabad. A descriptive statistical analysis, discriminant validity, and regression analysis are used to perform the analyses. With religious beliefs, values, life trends and banking behavior reveal that bank reputation, Islamic banking performance, and its compatibility impacts the usage intention positively and significantly. The perceived risk and complexity cast a negative influence on the intention of Islamic banking customers. Further, finding shows that the buyers of IB products have limited knowledge in Pakistan. This study could assist the practitioners as well as academicians in developing appropriate and effective policies to fascinate potential consumers. Regarding originality, this study is among the earliest studies conducted in the Pakistani context using Roger’s diffusion innovation theory to interpret the intentions of the customers to adopt Islamic banking.

Keywords: Bank Reputation; Consumer Attitudes; Consumer Behavior; Customer Surveys; Developing Countries; Islamic non-interest banking; Pakistan’s banking.

1. INTRODUCTION With an annual growth of 20%, the Islamic Banking system has reported substantial growth for the last two decades (Dar et al., 2012). The assets of Islamic Banks (IB) were predicted to be $1.7 trillion and predicted to rise by 3.4 trillion (Ernst & Young, 2013). Though, this industry is underserved in numerous business sectors outside the Malaysia and Gulf countries (Kaabachi & Obeid, 2016; Thaker et al., 2019). Research on the number of markets with dense Muslim population remains unexplored. These countries include Pakistan and North African countries which are in developing stages in terms of Islamic finance markets (Wilson, 2011). Pakistan is an economy in which conventional banking has remained in dominance for the last *Corresponding author (M.Y.Khan). Tel: +92-51-9314382 Ext.242 muhammadyar@ciitwah.edu.pk

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07O http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.135

sixty years. A few Islamic banks have been launched in the past few years, but they are offering very restricted services to the local marketplace. These banks' local banking action is actual partial representing two percent of the entire economic assets that is the US $1.07 billion. This deficiency created the need for Islamic banking services. Therefore, the petition for IB services has been increased considerably & local authorities exercised a lot of effort in designing and creating a new industry of Islamic banks in the Pakistani economy. According to Kaabachi and Obeid (2016), Muslim countries possess great potential for Islamic finance and Sharia-compliant products. The assets of Islamic finance create a magnitude of 40% of the net financial assets of Pakistan in the year 2018. These facts and figures present the idea that the Pakistani financial market presents a lucrative opportunity for Islamic banks to thrive in a country with a majority of conventional business. Therefore, this study is grounded on Rogerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s innovation theory of diffusion for adaptation of Islamic Banking using the Pakistani framework (Rogers, 2003). This matter has been discovered on a rare basis in past literature (Echchabi et al., 2014; Feroz & Siddiqui, 2018; Thaker et al., 2019). In this paper, we have planned to cover this area of research. The results of the study possess the potential of meaningful application for academicians, practitioners, and managers for devising effective banking as well as marketing strategies.

1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT Islam is a widely spreading religion in the world (Abou-Youssef et al., 2015). According to estimation by El-Bassiouny (2014), there are approximately 1.57 billion followers of Islam worldwide. As there is an evident increase in the Muslim population around the globe so the industry of Islamic banking also has the opportunity to thrive. There is an increased demand for Islamic financial products by diverse religious customers around the world. There are on average 420 financial institutions providing Islamic financial services worldwide (Kaabachi & Obeid, 2016). The major aim of developing Islamic modes of financing and services is to provide services that comply with Islamic law and Shariah principles. Even though Pakistan is considered one of the largest nations around Muslim countries (Khan et al., 2017), this trend is relatively new. Taking this current state into view, this particular study aims to explore the determinants of adopting an Islamic banking system in emerging markets such as Pakistan.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT The attitude of consumers to the Islamic Banking system and their products has gained a positive vibe in the recent arena. Though several variables have an impact on the decision of adopting Islamic banking system, literature shows contrasting findings in the past studies (Abdullah & Rahman, 2007; Abou-Youssef et al., 2015; Feroz & Siddiqui, 2018; Kaabachi & Obeid, 2016; A. K. Khan & Khanna, 2010; Thaker et al., 2019; Souiden & Jabeur, 2015). There are several other studies which testify that other factors besides the religious beliefs also determine the intention to use Islamic banking namely convenience of the bank, sociability, personal banking, competent bank staff, service quality, secrecy, pricing strategy, advertisement through media and consumer mindfulness (Abdullah & Rahman, 2007; Amin, 2011; Haron et al., 1994; Rammal & Zurbruegg, 2016; Thambiah et al., 2012). There are six main causes of Islamic banking adoption namely

Muhammad Yar Khan, Faiza Saleem, Majid Jamal Khan, Shahab Ud Din

comprehension philosophy, compliance with Shariah principles, service quality, religious inconsistencies, purchase intention of Islamic financial product and future horizons. According to the literature, high quality and fast services banking are crucial factors of the selection of Islamic banks (Polat et al., 2014). Other studies have integrated theory of reasoned action and diffusion innovation into the studies and results have shown that perceived behavioral control, subjective norm, complexity, attitude, relative advantage, and uncertainty are quite relevant to customers when choosing for Islamic banking system (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2011; Rogers, 2003). As shown in Figure 1, seven variables have been selected including consumer intention to adopt IB as a dependent variable while risk perception, complexity, relative advantages, awareness, compatibility and bank reputation as independent variables.

Compatibility (COMP)

Perceived Risk (PRSK) Intention to adopt (INTIB)

Complexity (CMPLX)

Relative Advantage (RLA)

Reputation of Bank (BR)

Awareness (AIBS)

Figure 1: Theoretical Framework of Study

2.1 REPUTATION OF BANK Numerous researches have highlighted the significance of reputation in selecting IB (Ahmad & Haron, 2002; Bashir, 2013; Echchabi & Aziz, 2012; Feroz & Siddiqui, 2018; Kaabachi & Obeid, 2016; Lateh et al., 2009; Thaker et al., 2019). For instance, Echchabi (2012) finds that the choice of an IB is mostly based on the value of services offered and the reputation of the said Islamic bank. According to Ismail et al. (2014), there is a robust association between the status and choice of Islamic housing finance in Pakistan. H1: Bank reputation has a positive and significant association with the choice of IB adoption.

2.2 SERVICES OF ISLAMIC BANK ITS BENEFITS AND AWARENESS Significance of customer consciousness on IB acceptance has been highlight by many studies in unlike situations (Khattak, 2010). A significant relationship among customer awareness and variables such as boldness Echchabi (2012), customer contentment for the Islamic banking system and usage intention of Islamic banks has been proved by various studies (Bashir, 2013; Gait, 2009). However, some other studies probed into the idea of practicing the Islamic financial system in the Pakistani market. For instance, Khattak (2010) noted that Pakistani consumers are unaware of the idea of how Islamic banks operate and provide services to their customers. *Corresponding author (M.Y.Khan). Tel: +92-51-9314382 Ext.242 muhammadyar@ciitwah.edu.pk

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07O http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07O.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.135

H2: Bank awareness has a positive and significant association with the choice of IB adoption.

2.3 PERCEIVED RELATIVE ADVANTAGES An innovative idea that has a marginal benefit over another idea being superseded is known as relative advantages (Rogers, 2003). In their study, Echchabi and Aziz (2012) concluded that banking practices include quality of service, pricing policy, social responsibility practices, and social prestige. The investigation affirms the above-expressed factors as the fundamental factors that clarify its present use by purchasers. In Malaysia, Amin et al. (2013) have supported the notable impact of a relative preferred standpoint on purchaser state of mind of Islamic banking. H3: The perceived relative advantage significantly and positively associated with the choice of IB adoption.

2.4 PERCEIVED COMPATIBILITY It is described that the degree to which entrepreneurial activity is in accordance with sociocultural norms and beliefs (Echchabi & Aziz, 2012). The above findings agree with the results of Aziz et al. (2015) in Morocco, which resulted that the customers’ compatibility attitude is significantly related with the intention of adopting Islamic banking. H4: The factor of compatibility casts a significant and positive impact on the choice of IB adoption.

2.5 PERCEIVED COMPLEXITY A negative relationship exists between the intention to adopt Islamic banking and perceived complexity (Jamshidi and Hussin (2013). It is considered by the several studies that simplicity is a major factor to adopt Islamic banking (Hamid & Nordin, 2001). Further, studies find that the intention of the customers to accept the Islamic banking system is positively associated with the product’s simplicity (Amin et al., 2013). Similarly, it is expected that the customers’ tendency to adopt Islamic banking is positively related to the comprehension and use of the product. H5: Perceived complexity is negatively associated with the choice of IB adoption.

2.6 PERCEIVED RISK Perceived risk is explained according to the constructs of customer perception regarding the ambiguity and consequences of selling and buying of the product/service (Bauer, 1960). Generally, it can be seen in the past studies (Gerrard et al., 2003) that a negative relationship exists between perceived risk and adoption of the Islamic banking system (Gerrard & Cunningham, 2003). In this regard, Islamic Banking literature (Echchabi & Olaniyi, 2012; Yusof, 1999) shows that uncertainty has a negative impact on Islamic Banking customers. H6: PERCEIVED RISK IS SIGNIFICANTLY AND NEGATIVELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CHOICE OF IB ADOPTION.

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY We investigate factors influencing the usage of IB practices in Pakistan by using the following

Muhammad Yar Khan, Faiza Saleem, Majid Jamal Khan, Shahab Ud Din

method.

3.1 QUESTIONNAIRE AND SAMPLING Questionnaires are distributed among respondents for the collection of data which are based on the theoretical framework. Developed questionnaires are used which have already tested by numerous studies. Pilot testing is conducted to confirm the reliability and validity of data. Convenience sampling is used as a sampling technique. The respondents are the customers of conventional banks who preferred conventional banking practices over IB practices. Questionnaires were distributed to the conventional bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s customers with the help of branch managers located in Islamabad city. 279 among the 400 questionnaires distributed got a response, thus providing a 70% response rate. There are three sections and in the first section, the main concern is to explore the knowledge regarding IB and actual utilization of Islamic concepts of banking. The second section is relevant to predicting the predicted variables. Concluding section is relevant to the collection of information on demographics of respondents. Table 1 shows the sample characteristics, and it reports that 68 % of the respondents are males, while 32% are females. The ages of 75% of the respondents are between 25 and 49 years. 25.5 % of the respondents have diplomas while 48.15% of them completed their university education. 41% of the respondents are private-sector employees. Table 1: Sample characteristics Variables Frequency Gender Male 189 Female 90 Age (years) 18-24 25 25-34 85 35-49 124 50-65 26 Above 65 19 Level of education Illiterate 8 Primary 29 High school 19 Secondary 29 Diploma 71 University 115 Postgraduate 8 Employment sector Public 69 Private 114 Self-employed 61 Retired 35

4. ANALYSIS OF DATA In this study, the two-step approach is applied for data analysis. In the first step, models have *Corresponding author (M.Y.Khan). Tel: +92-51-9314382 Ext.242 muhammadyar@ciitwah.edu.pk

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been used to test the reliability and validity of scales items used in the variables of the study. In the second step, hypothesis tests have been performed. In the first step, internal reliability has been measured through Cronbach’s alpha while validity has been tested through factor loading, convergent, and discriminant validity. Regarding constructs’ reliability, Hair et al. (1998) suggest that if all the value of Cronbach’s alpha is above 0.7, the instrument is internally consistent. In this regard and as shown in table 2, the values of Cronbach’s alpha are above the suggested values. Regarding validity, Fornell and Larcker (1981) suggest that if the value of factor loading is above 0.5, the convergent validity of the instrument can be established. As shown in Table 2 below, the value of factor loadings is well above 0.5 and consistent with Khan et al. (2019). Table 2: Reliability Measures cc

Items Factor loadings Alpha Cronbach’s Validity AVE BR1 0.822 0.865 0.821 0.828 BR2 0.848 BR BR3 0.77 BR4 0.77 AIBS1 0.858 0.800 0.550 0.645 AIBS2 0.855 AIBS AIBS3 0.744 AIBS4 0.722 RLA1 0.753 0.847 0.750 0.632 RLA2 0.833 RLA RLA3 0.852 RLA4 0.811 RLA5 0.744 COMP01 0.911 0.870 0.770 0.837 COMP02 0.894 COMP COMP03 0.828 COMP04 0.865 CMPLX1 0.777 0.817 0.640 0.643 CMPLX2 0.722 CMPLX CMPLX3 0.892 CMPLX4 0.876 PRSK1 0.855 0.825 0.660 0.660 PRSK2 0.844 PRSK PRSK3 0.788 PRSK4 0.750 INTIB1 0.855 0.885 0.950 0.811 INTIB2 0.913 INTIB INTIB3 0.988 (Relative advantage=RLA, Reputation of the Bank = BR, Risk Perception= PRSK, Complexity= CMPLX, Awareness = AIBS, Compatibility=COMP, Intention to choose IB= INTIB)

To measure the discriminant validity, Hair et al. (1998) that the constructed value has to be higher than other constructs of the model. Table 3, all the value of a construct is over and above from the other construct in the model.

Muhammad Yar Khan, Faiza Saleem, Majid Jamal Khan, Shahab Ud Din

Table 3: Discriminant Validity Measures Construct RLA BR PRSK CMPLX AIBS COMP INTIB

RLA 0.660 0.220 0.250 0.180 0.250 0.280 0.210

PRSK

CMPLX

AIBS

COMP

INTIB

0.680 0.210 0.150 0.230 0.250 0.210

0.660 0.140 0.230 0.280 0.170

0.670 0.180 0.140 0.080

0.550 0.280 0.170

0.770 0.327

0.880

The hypothesized relationships have been tested by using regression analysis. Statistical package of social sciences (SPSS) has been used for analyzing the data. The results depict that the reputation of the bank has a direct influence over the intention of the customers to choose the bank. The relative advantage of one bank over the other also casts a major impact on the intention to choose the bank. On similar foundations, the complexity of the procedures, compatibility and perceived risk are also the factors that are majorly considered by the bank users while selecting for one. However, contrary to the expectations the impact of awareness on choosing the bank has not been accepted. Table 4 given below shows the summary of the hypotheses. Table 4: Hypothesis Testing Hypothesis One Two Three Four Five Six

Path BR-INTIB AIBS-INTIB RLA-INTIB COMP-INTIB CMPLX-INTIB PRSK-INTIB

Β-value 0.739 0.055 0.274 0.411 -0.232 -0.209

T-value 4.791 −0.627 3.491 6.751 -4.029 -3.385

Decision Accepted Not Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted Accepted

5. DISCUSSION The outcomes of the study reveal that bank reputation shows a positively significant relationship with intention to choose the Islamic banking system. These results are in line with the findings of Dusuki and Abdullah (2007) which show the fact that reputation and good image of the bank are important in the eyes of the customers while the selection of Islamic banks. Hoq et al. (2010) and Amin et al. (2013) have also found similar kinds of outcomes that the reputation of the bank plays an important role in the selection criteria of Islamic banking services. As per the findings of these scholars, a suitable image of the bank strengthens the confidence of the customers in the selection of Islamic banking services. Furthermore, the outcomes of this study reveal that the awareness regarding the Islamic banking system does not have any impact on intention to use Islamic banking products/services. The results of this study show compliance with the findings of Echchabi et al. (2014), which also identify that no impact of awareness exists with Islamic banking adoption in Pakistan. Additionally, the relative advantages have a positive and significant impact on the intention to choose the IB system. These findings coincide with the outcomes of (Muhamad, 2011). The next variable of the study named compatibility shows a significantly positive association with choosing Islamic banking. According to the expectation, complexity influences the intention to choose Islamic banking negatively. This negative outcome agrees with Thambiah et al. (2011). *Corresponding author (M.Y.Khan). Tel: +92-51-9314382 Ext.242 muhammadyar@ciitwah.edu.pk

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In this examination, the model fitness was the primary measure utilized as a part of testing the hypothesis. Coefficients and t-values are the measures which explained the significance levels and estimate limits for interrelations between predicted and predicting factors. The model has shown goodness and fitness in a proper way. The results show that there exists a positive association between bank reputations, compatibility, relative advantages, and intention to adopt. On the flip side, complexity and perceived show negatively significant association with Islamic banking adoption. Furthermore, no influence of awareness is reflected on the intent to choose Islamic banking system. As it is evident from the results, Pakistani customers consider the reputation and image of the bank as an important factor while deciding to choose an Islamic banking system. Furthermore, the results show Pakistani bank customers consider that there exists an evident advantage in choosing Islamic banks over conventional banks. Furthermore, the outcome states that compatibility is positively and significantly related to the usage of Islamic banking. The next outcome of the study shows an inverse relationship of complexity with usage intention. Islamic banking is not as common in Pakistan as the conventional banking system; also, it is relatively new. The results of the awareness also shed light on the lacking knowledge of Pakistani customers about Islamic Banking products. If banking processes or conditions are complex, then the usage intention of Islamic banking is bound to decline. As per the expectations, the perceived risk is negatively related to Islamic banking usage intention. The higher the customer perceives the risk, the reluctant he becomes to use Islamic banking.

6. CONCLUSION The analysis of the model has revealed the selection criteria of the Pakistani banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; users. The usage of banking services is elevating in Pakistan as compared to the past times. As the literacy level is increasing, more people are earning money hence the usage of the banking services is increasing. The bank users consider a relative advantage, bank reputation, risk perception, complexity of banking procedures and compatibility as important decision factors. Since there are quite a big number of banks which are operating in the country so the competition is intense. The banks in Pakistan can increase their chances of selection by spreading the positive reputation of the bank services. The questions regarding the risk of using banking in the minds of customers could also be reduced by efficient advertising campaigns. The communication of the better relative advantage of your services in comparison to the competitor banks could also increase the chances of bank selection. The decrease in the complex bank procedures could upsurge the chances of bank selection. The compatibility with other banks in the market could also maximize the possibility of more usage of banking services. The banks also need to disseminate the information regarding their services in simpler language to build a prominent position in the minds of customers.

7. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

Muhammad Yar Khan, Faiza Saleem, Majid Jamal Khan, Shahab Ud Din

8. REFERENCES Abdullah, R.F.S., & Rahman, A.R.A. (2007). Factors influencing knowledge of Islamic banking services: the case of Malaysian bank managers. Review of Islamic Economics, 11(2), 31. Abou-Youssef, M. M. H., Kortam, W., Abou-Aish, E., & El-Bassiouny, N. (2015). Effects of religiosity on consumer attitudes toward Islamic banking in Egypt. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 33(6), 786-807. Ahmad, N., & Haron, S. (2002). Perceptions of Malaysian corporate customers towards Islamic banking products and services. International Journal of Islamic Financial Services, 3(4), 1329. Amin, H. (2011). Determinants Of Islamic Insurance Acceptance: An Empirical Analysis. International Journal of Business & Society, 12(2). Amin, M., Isa, Z., & Fontaine, R. (2013). Islamic banks: Contrasting the drivers of customer satisfaction on image, trust, and loyalty of Muslim and non-Muslim customers in Malaysia. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 31(2), 79-97. Aziz, A., Ridhwan, M., & Yusof, M. A. (2015). Scrutinizing the Method of Contribution for Islamic Waqf Bank Fund. Journal of Islamic Economics, Banking and Finance, 113(3281), 1-12. Bashir, M. S. (2013). Analysis of customer satisfaction with the Islamic banking sector: case of Brunei Darussalam. Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 2(10), 38-50. Bauer, R. A. (1960). Consumer behavior as risk-taking. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 43rd National Conference of the American Marketing Assocation, Chicago, Illinois. Dar, H., Rahman, R., Malik, R., & Kamal, A. A. (2012). Global Islamic Finance Report: GIFR 2012: Edbiz Consulting Publication. Dusuki, A. W., & Abdullah, N. I. (2007). Maqasid al-Shariah, Maslahah, and corporate social responsibility. American Journal of Islamic Social Sciences, 24(1), 25. Echchabi, A. (2012). Empirical investigation of customers’ perception and adoption towards Islamic banking services in Morocco. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 12(6), 849-858. Echchabi, A., Ayinde Olorogun, L., & Azouzi, D. (2014). Islamic insurance prospects in Tunisia in the wake of the Jasmine revolution: A survey from customers' perspective. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 5(1), 15-28. Echchabi, A., & Aziz, H. A. (2012). The relationship between religiosity and customers’ adoption of Islamic banking services in Morocco. International Journal of Contemporary Business Studies, 3(5), 25-31. Echchabi, A., & Olaniyi, O. N. (2012). Using theory of reasoned action to model the patronisation behaviour of Islamic banks’ customers in Malaysia. Research Journal of Business Management, 6(3), 70-82. El-Bassiouny, N. (2014). The one-billion-plus marginalization: Toward a scholarly understanding of Islamic consumers. Journal of Business Research, 67(2), 42-49. Ernst, & Young. (2013). World Islamic Banking Competitiveness Report 2013-14. In: Ernst & Young Dubai. Feroz, B., & Siddiqui, D. A. (2018). Factors Influencing Customers to Opt For Islamic Banking. Feroz, B. and Siddiqui, DA (2018). International Journal of Management and Commerce *Corresponding author (M.Y.Khan). Tel: +92-51-9314382 Ext.242 muhammadyar@ciitwah.edu.pk

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Innovations, 6(2), 261-269. Fornell, C., & Larcker, D. F. (1981). Structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error: Algebra and statistics. Journal of marketing research, 382-388. Gait, A. H. (2009). The Impact of Demographic Variables on Libyan Retail Consumers’ Attitudes Towards Islamic Methods of Finance. Gerrard, P., & Barton Cunningham, J. (2003). The diffusion of internet banking among Singapore consumers. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 21(1), 16-28. Hair, J. F., Anderson, R. E., Tatham, R. L., & Black, W. C. (1998). Multivariate data analysis. Hamid, A., & Nordin, N. (2001). A study on Islamic banking education and strategy for the new millennium-Malaysian experience. International Journal of Islamic Financial Services, 2(4), 3-11. Haron, S., Ahmad, N., & Planisek, S. L. (1994). Bank patronage factors of Muslim and non-Muslim customers. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 12(1), 32-40. Hoq, M. Z., Sultana, N., & Amin, M. (2010). The effect of trust, customer satisfaction and image on customers' loyalty in islamic banking sector. South Asian Journal of Management, 17(1), 70. Ismail, S., Azmi, F., & Thurasamy, R. (2014). Selection Criteria For Islamic Home Financing In Malaysia. International Journal of Business & Society, 15(1). Jamshidi, D., & Hussin, N. (2013). Determining a conceptual framework for adoption of Islamic credit card in context of Malaysia. Journal of Basic Scientific Research, 3(1), 188-196. Kaabachi, S., & Obeid, H. (2016). Determinants of Islamic banking adoption in Tunisia: empirical analysis. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 34(7), 1069-1091. Khan, A. K., & Khanna, T. (2010). Is faith a luxury for the rich? Examining the influence of religious beliefs on individual financial choices. Harvard Business School. Khan, M. Y., Awan, T., Saleem, N., & Javeed, A. (2017). The Impact of Islamic Governance Mechanisms on Corporate Governance Compliance and Disclosure. Khan, M. Y., Javeed, A., Khan, M. J., Ud Din, S., Khurshid, A., & Noor, U. (2019). Political Participation through Social Media: Comparison of Pakistani and Malaysian Youth. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media. Khan, M. Y., Javeed, A., & Khan, W. (2018). Capital Structure Determinants of Islamic and Conventional Banks of Pakistan. Sarhad Journal of Management Science, 4(2), 264-274. Khattak, N. A. (2010). Customer satisfaction and awareness of Islamic banking system in Pakistan. African Journal of Business Management, 4(5), 662-671. Lateh, N., Ismail, S., & Ariffin, N. M. (2009). Customers’ perceptions on the objectives, characteristics and selection criteria of Islamic bank in Thailand. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 11(2), 167-189. Mohd Thas Thaker, M. A. B., Allah Pitchay, A. B., Mohd Thas Thaker, H. B., & Amin, M. F. B. (2019). Factors influencing consumers’ adoption of Islamic mobile banking services in Malaysia: An approach of partial least squares (PLS). Journal of Islamic Marketing. Polat, A., Yesilyaprak, M., & Kaya, R. (2014). Understanding Islamic bank selection of customers: a field research from Turkish participation banks. International Journal of Financial Research, 5(4), 22. Rammal, H. G., & Zurbruegg, R. (2016). Awareness of Islamic banking products among Muslims:

Muhammad Yar Khan, Faiza Saleem, Majid Jamal Khan, Shahab Ud Din

The case of Australia. In Islamic Finance (pp. 141-156): Springer. Rogers, E. M. (2003). The diffusion of innovation 5th edition. In: New York: Free Press. Schiffman, L., & Kanuk, L. (2004). Consumer behavior. 8th Ed. NY: Prentice-Hall Inc. Souiden, N., & Jabeur, Y. (2015). The impact of Islamic beliefs on consumersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; attitudes and purchase intentions of life insurance. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 33(4), 423441. Thambiah, S., Eze, U. C., & Ismail, H. (2011). Customer awareness and current usage of islamic retail banking products and services in Malaysia. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(10), 667-671. Thambiah, S., Ramanathan, S., & Mazumder, M. N. H. (2012). The determinants of Islamic retail banking adoption in Malaysia. The International Business & Economics Research Journal (Online), 11(4), 437. Wilson, R. (2011). Islamic Banking and finance in North Africa: Past Development and Future Potential: African Development Bank. Yusof, M. Y. R. (1999). Islamic banking: adoption of service innovation. Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Business School. Dr. Muhammad Yar Khan has a Ph.D. in accounting and finance from Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, the UK funded by Commonwealth Scholarship Commission. He earned a Master of Science in Finance under a split program funded by ERASMUS MUNDUS Europe from Sanio University Benevento, Italy and MAJU Pakistan. He has another Master in Business Administration from International Islamic University and awarded with Distinction certificate. He is an Assistant Professor at COMSATS University Islamabad, Wah Campus. His research areas are Corporate Governance, Corporate Finance, Islamic Finance, Islamic Banking, and Portfolio Management. Dr. Faiza Saleem has a PhD in Finance from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia with Distinction. She is an Assistant professor at the Department of Management Science at University of Wah, Wah Cantt and the Editor-in-Chief for University of Wah Journal of Management Sciences (UWJMS). Her research interests are Corporate Governance, Financial Markets and Institutions, Financial Risk Management, Islamic Finance, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management. Dr. Majid Jamal Khan holds a PhD in Finance from the Institute de Gestion de Rennes (IGR-IAE) of the Univeriste de Rennes-1, France and a Research Masters in Advanced Studies and Research in Finance from IGR-IAE de Rennes, France. He was also a visiting faculty at the ESC-Rennes School of Business, Rennes, France. He is an Assistant Professor of Finance in COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Wah Campus and is a member of the Network of Islamic Finance Experts of the Centre of Islamic Finance (CIF) of COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Lahore. His research interests are Corporate Financial Risk Management, Corporate Governance and Islamic Finance. Dr. Shahab Ud Din holds a PhD in Corporate Finance from COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan. He is a lecturer in the Department of Management Science at COMSATS University Islamabad, Wah Campus since 2011. He was a lecturer at GIFT University, Gujranwala. His research interests are Corporate Governance, Financial Institutions and Public Policy.

*Corresponding author (M.Y.Khan). Tel: +92-51-9314382 Ext.242 muhammadyar@ciitwah.edu.pk

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PAPER ID: 11A07P

ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL CONSUMER MARKET DEVELOPMENT: A CASE OF LIPETSK REGION 1

Natalya Nikolaevna Zyuzina , Pavel Anatolyevich Krovopuskov

Department of State, Municipal Management and Business Technologies, Lipetsk State Technical University, Lipetsk, RUSSIA. 2 Department of Design and Artistic Processing of Materials, Institute of Mechanical Engineering, Lipetsk State Technical University, Lipetsk, RUSSIA. ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 16 September 2019 Received in revised form 23 January 2020 Accepted 10 February 2020 Available online 19 February 2020

The consumer market is a sphere of the direct economic impact on a person and a factor of political stability in society. Therefore, any economic and political difficulties most quickly and acutely affect the state of the consumer market. Balancing the consumer market in terms of prices, quantity, and quality of goods is not only a necessary component of an efficient economy but also the basis for assessing the quality of population life. The state and development of the consumer market seem to be an insufficiently studied scientific topic in Russia, and therefore a rather difficult practical task. The Russian regional differences have a significant impact on the form of certain market economy laws manifestation. In this regard, there is a need to study market relations in their regional manifestations. In addition, the specific properties of goods and services sold on the consumer market, determine a high degree of its localization, close relationship with a specific territory and its population.

Keywords: Government regulation; market economy; Consumer market development policy; Lipetsk region consumer market; Retail sales; Agricultural trading; eMarketing for agricultural products; Online price monitoring.

1. INTRODUCTION The consumer market as a research object appears in the form of a multi-level economy subsystem, divided into certain components according to certain criteria. An important feature of this is that it is an open system that responds to internal and external economic, social and political situations, that is, depends on inter-regional commodity flows, labor migration, the money, and capital movement. The consumer market is a complex system of institutions in the circulation field, characterized by relationships in large numbers. Each of its participants has its interests: manufacturers seek to return the money spent and make a profit, and consumers seek to satisfy their own needs. The *Corresponding author (N. N. Zyuzinа). Email: nаtаzuzi@yаndеx.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07P http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.136

resolution of the contradictions of these interests is provided by state economy regulation by federal and sub-federal bodies. In this regard, the need for scientific research to determine the possibilities and directions of state consumer market regulation becomes obvious. Despite the fact that the consumer market as an economic category was studied in the works of many domestic and foreign authors, modern science has not yet developed a unified methodological approach to state regulation of the consumer market at the regional level. This study's purpose is to analyze the regional consumer market development for the Lipetsk region.

2. METHODOLOGY The works of I.V. Grape, L.K. Koretsky, V.I. Malyshkova, C. Novoselova, T.V. Pogodina, V.G. Rostanza, N.M. Sedova, O.V. Takhumova. From the Pogodina, T. V. viewpoint, the consumer market is an integral part of the product market, where households with other subjects of market relations enter into the relations of goods sale and services for personal consumption [1]. The Economics Encyclopedic Dictionary defines the consumer market as a market where individuals and households sell or buy consumer goods and services [2]. According to V. Nikolaev, A. the consumer market is economic relations systems that ensure the relationship of production with consumption through the processes of goods sale and services [3]. V. Malyshkov defines the consumer market as â&#x20AC;&#x153;the totality of economic relations between sellers and buyers regarding the oncoming movement of money and goods (services) designed to meet the personal needs of family membersâ&#x20AC;? [4]. Based on all of the above, we will formulate a detailed and at the same time clear definition of the consumer market as an economic relations developing system on the competition basis, pricing, marketing and an external factor of state regulation, linking the spheres of consumption and production, forming competitive prices in the process of buying and selling consumer goods based on organized infrastructure, designed to balance the supply and demand by meeting the population needs and producers interests. In this definition, the consumer market acts as an independent economic category, this, in our opinion, makes it possible to formulate a methodological approach to solving practical problems of its stabilization, providing conditions for further development and effective functioning. The consumer market, being the most important structural component of the market economy reproduction process, which ensures the movement of commodity flows, closes the process of reproduction. It is inextricably linked to the entire system of markets and actively interacts with them. The consumer market as a focus reflects all positive and negative changes in the production of not only consumer goods, but also production means. The development level of the consumer market characterizes the state of the country's economy and the efficiency of the entire economic system. The region consumer market is the main component of the modern market economy structure, where a gross national product part, materialized in the form of goods and services produced by the business, is bought or acquired in another way by the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s consumers for personal consumption [5]. An important characteristic feature of regional consumer markets is that they are an open system that responds to internal and external political and socio-economic situations, that is, they 2

Natalya Nikolaevna Zyuzina, Pavel Anatolyevich Krovopuskov

depend on the interregional capital movement, goods, and labor migration. The regional consumer market consists of three main elements - the food market, the non-food market, and the paid services market, which, interacting with each other, provide the population needs and create opportunities for the successful functioning of the region’s economy. The largest of these markets are food and non-food markets. The paid services market is characterized by a localization higher degree than the consumer goods market since most of the services are inseparable in time and space with their producer and consumer. The paid services market is an emerging market. In industrialized countries, its turnover exceeds the volume of consumer goods sales. The main problems in the regional consumer markets development include imbalances in development due to economic development levels differentiation of the Russian Federation constituent entities; underdeveloped competition in the consumer market of most regions; deficiencies in government regulation; barriers to territorial and affordability of goods and services; the use of the illegal migrants' labor force in consumer market organizations; hidden and informal activities of trade organizations; corruption and red tape; insufficiently high level of personnel qualification in the trading industry. State regulation of the regional consumer market is aimed at creating conditions in the region for the business entities' effective activity and meeting the population needs in goods and services [6, 7].

3. RESULTS The Lipetsk region consumer market has finally adapted to the action of economic sanctions and is showing slow recovery growth. To the level of 2013, the growth in retail trade turnover in the Lipetsk region amounted to 102.1% comparable prices. Figure 1 shows the growth in retail turnover, % compared to 2013.

Figure 1: Retail turnover growth (% to 2013). The growth in retail sales indicates a revival of consumer activity in the population and a gradual change in its behavior from “savings” to “consumer”. Retail sales in 2018 amounted to ₽ 257 billion (105% by 2017 in comparable prices), including ₽ 120 billion on the food market (106%), in the non-food market ₽ 137 billion (105%) (Figure 2). Retail turnover is 94% formed by trading organizations and individual entrepreneurs, by 6% at markets and fairs (Figure 3). The growth in retail turnover in 2018 was achieved both through the stationary trading network (104.9% by 2017) and in markets and fairs (110.6%) (Figure 4). *Corresponding author (N. N. Zyuzinа). Email: nаtаzuzi@yаndеx.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07P http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.136

Figure 2: Retail turnover indices, % 2018 by 2017.

Figure 3: Retail structure (% of total).

Figure 4: Growth in retail sales, 2018 and 2014. Conditions are being created to ensure the price and territorial accessibility of consumer goods and household services in rural settlements that do not have a stationary trading network. Local budgets received support in the amount of â&#x201A;˝ 10,5 million to reimburse the costs of economic entities for the goods to rural settlements delivery. In 2018, nearly 230 trade and public catering enterprises were opened, including 111 in rural areas. In addition, 637 new jobs were created (328 in rural areas). The largest development is gained by large retail trade organizations, including network companies (130 companies, a 29% share in turnover), where the growth was 108% at comparable prices. Total 426 procurement organizations work in the region, 127 thousand private household plots (private farms) or 68% of their total number (2.5 times more than 2017) are involved in the procurement process. The procurement turnover for 2018 increased by 74% and amounted to â&#x201A;˝ 5.3 billion, including products purchased from private farms for â&#x201A;˝ 4,4 billion, which is 85% more than in 2017 (Table. 1). 4

Natalya Nikolaevna Zyuzina, Pavel Anatolyevich Krovopuskov

Table 1: Development of procurement activities in 2014-2018. Year

Number of procurement organizations

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

545 413 416 394 426

Procurement turnover, million rubles 1956 2382 2924 3042 5296

Procurement turnover from private farms, million rubles 1503 1830 2253 2381 4396

The share of purchased products from private farms, % 77 77 77 78 93

The number of private household plots involved in the procurement process, thousand people 38 35 51 51 127

State support is provided from the regional and local budgets for the procurement activities development and agricultural products' primary processing. In 2018, six procurement organizations received it in the amount of ₽ 3.5 million. To organize additional distribution channels for agricultural products of local producers with production small volumes, measures are being taken in the region to create a cooperative distribution network. Cooperative products are sold by over 250 retailers, of which 77 were created in 2018. The development of the “store-in-store” format continues, since the beginning of year, six such enterprises were opened in the cities like Lipetsk, Yelets, Lebedyan, Chaplygin (in total 35 units). More than nine thousand trading places were provided to agricultural producers at markets and fairs (Figure 5). In order to create the image of Lipetsk agricultural products as safe and high-quality through its individualization, active work is underway to register trademarks in four agricultural cooperatives: “Avangard-M” (Dolgorukovsky District), “Pishchevik” (Yeletsky District), and “GDP 48” (Chaplyginsky District), LLC “Kazan meadow” (Stanovlyansky District). There are six agricultural cooperative markets. Agricultural cooperative markets in the Dobrinsky, Izmalkovsky and Lev-Tolstovsky Districts are under construction.

Figure 5: Agricultural products' trading places in the Lipetsk region. Budgetary funds as ₽ 2.5 million were allocated for the construction and reconstruction of agricultural markets in 2018. The electronic online platform for the sale of agricultural products, “coop48.rf”, “Yaarmarka” and “Merchant Traditions”, is working successfully. In order to promote local goods to trade enterprises in 2018, procurement sessions were held: with Lenta hypermarket and Lipetsk milk producers; with federal and regional retail chains, the Michurinsk Experimental Plant, and Tula Dairy Plant OJSC. In 2018, 297 regional fairs were held (an increase of 106% by *Corresponding author (N. N. Zyuzinа). Email: nаtаzuzi@yаndеx.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07P http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.136

2017), including 137 in rural areas and more than 11.8 thousand Municipal fairs, 56 permanent fairs and trading floors with 1700 trading places. In the region, a system has been created for the rapid exchange of information between interested structures about dangerous and low-quality food products, about unscrupulous business entities that allow the sale of such goods, as well as about facts that cause harm to the life and health of citizens. The authorities of the Lipetsk region in close cooperation with the territorial administrations of Rospotrebnadzor, Federal State Health Institution “Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Lipetsk Region” monitor the quality and safety of food products (Fig. 6). In the Lipetsk Region, to December 1, 2018, the average retail premium for drugs included in the list of vital and essential drugs amounted to 17,4%. The Lipetsk region in the Central Federal Region takes 4th place in terms of applied trade margins. In 2018, a “pilot project” was launched in the Lipetsk region - the electronic service “Consumer Market of the Lipetsk Region” - online price monitoring (hereinafter - the Service), formed in the form of the Lipetsk Region interactive map and posted on the website of the Consumer Market and Price Policy Department of Lipetsk region.

Figure 8: Coverage of retailers’ laboratory food research, units. This ensured participation in the electronic price monitoring system for the goods social group of all the leading participants in the Lipetsk region consumer market and increased the availability of information on prices for socially significant products for the region residents. In December 2018, the Lipetsk region took 3rd place among 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation and 2nd place in the Central Federal Region by the cost of a consumer basket (Rosstat data) (where 1st place in the rating is the lowest cost). The cost of food products minimum bag on average in Russia amounted to ₽ 3989,17, and in the Lipetsk region – ₽ 3350,86, which is ₽ 638,31 smaller. There is an improvement in the situation in the alcohol market. Retail sales are increasing, indicating a decrease in illegal traffic. Positive changes are confirmed by an increase in revenue from excise taxes on alcoholic beverages: ₽ 1,2 billion were received in the consolidated budget of the Lipetsk Region for 2018. For the provision of public services in the regional budget received a state duty in the amount of ₽ 23.8 million.

4. CONCLUSION The Consumer Market and Price Policy Department of the Lipetsk Region is an industry executive body of state power in the Lipetsk Region in the trade regulation field. The policy of the consumer market development in the region pursued by the Department is aimed at improving the quality of public services, ensuring the price and territorial availability of goods and services, increasing the trade business reputation. 6

Natalya Nikolaevna Zyuzina, Pavel Anatolyevich Krovopuskov

In the region for the analyzed period, there is a steady trend in the consumer market development, which is reflected in the growth of the volume indicators as retail trade, public catering, consumer services, and procurement activities. The trade industry employs more than 120 thousand people, which provides jobs for a fifth of the able-bodied population in the Lipetsk region. In 2018, the Lipetsk region consumer market continued to operate in a difficult geopolitical situation, extending the duration of sanctions and informal bans introduced against the Russian economy. The decrease in real cash incomes for the population, and, as a consequence, their purchasing power, has retained its influence on a decrease in the growth rate of retail trade turnover. However, in mid-2018, the decline in retail sales growth stopped. For the first time in the past two and a half years, positive dynamics have been noted. The retail turnover growth rate began to grow slowly.

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors

6. REFERENCES [1] Zolotogorov, V.G. Encyclopedic Dictionary of Economics. Minsk: Polymya, 1997. 571 pp. [2] Malyshkov, V.I. Moscow Consumer Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow. Moscow: Printing House A.S. Pushkin, 1997. 221 pp. [3] Nikolaev, V. A. Economics of the municipality: essence, development problems and solution technologies. Moscow: RAGS Publishing House, 1998. 125 pp. [4] Pogodina, T.V. Consumer market and its structure: dissertation. Cheboksary, 1995. 164 pp. [5] The official website of the Consumer Market and Price Policy Department of the Lipetsk Region: http://liptorg-cp.ru/ (access: 08.28.2009). [6] The official website of the territorial administration of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Lipetsk Region: http://lipstat.gks.ru/ (access: 08.22.2019). [7] Zyuzina, N.N., Krovopuskov, P.A. Analysis and assessment of enterprise “vtorchermet” financial sustainability // International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering, 2019, 8 (9 Special Issue 3), pp. 29-33. Dr. N. N. Zyuzinа is аn Аssistаnt Profеssor аt Lipеtsk Stаtе Tеchnicаl Univеrsity, Lipеtsk, Russiа. Zyuzinа N. N. is а Cаndidаtе of Еconomic Sciеncеs. Her research encompasses Marketing Economy Observation and Analysis.

P. А. Krovopuskov is Hеаd of Sciеncе Dеpаrtmеnt аt Lipеtsk Stаtе Tеchnicаl Univеrsity, Lipеtsk, Russiа. He can be reached at pаvеlаnаtolеvich84 @ mаil.ru

*Corresponding author (N. N. Zyuzinа). Email: nаtаzuzi@yаndеx.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07P http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07P.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.136

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07Q

EVALUATION ON ROAD TRANSPORT PROJECTS INVESTMENT AND PROPOSALS DEVELOPMENT FOR THEIR IMPROVEMENT IN RUSSIA Sergey Shulzhenko 1 2

and Alexander Scherbakov

National Research Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, RUSSIA. Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering: Saint Petersburg, RUSSIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 19 August 2019 Received in revised form 15 January 2020 Accepted 12 February 2020 Available online 24 February 2020

Russian modern road infrastructure is an inter-industry system that transforms the conditions of life of society as a whole and individual economic entity. With the provisions of the Russian Federation Transport strategy, development of the road network should match the pace of socio-economic development of the state, to meet the transportation needs with the growth of motorization and the integration of the economy into the world economic system. Achieving sustainable economic growth, improving business conditions, carrying out structural reforms and improving the quality of life of the population largely depends on the level of development and technical condition of roads. High growth rates of Russian automobile fleet, outpacing the development of the road industry, have led to the emergence of traffic congestion, especially on the approaches to large cities and on the territories of these cities, as well as to the deterioration of the environmental situation. The existing road network does not meet the needs of the country's economic development, which is a limiting factor for the economic development, especially for Tula city, Russia.

Keywords: Transport schemes, Network models, Economic factors, Public transport; Road investment efficiency.

1. INTRODUCTION When developing road construction investment programs, it is necessary to determine the effectiveness of the proposed construction projects, as well as determine the priority of construction of various objects. Road construction projects are high-cost not only at the construction stage, but also at the design stage. in most cases, they are financed from the state budget. therefore, a more thorough assessment of the effectiveness of investment [4] in the construction and design of road and bridge facilities is necessary at the planning stage. Evaluation of the effectiveness of road projects is relevant, since the volume of road construction and funds allocated for these purposes *Corresponding author (S.Shulzhenko) Email: Shulzh79@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.137

increases annually, but requires confirmation of the social development plans of the regions.

Figure 1: Construction of road and bridge facilities in Tula Tula is a city located 190 km south of Moscow, Russia. The main problem is that when evaluating efficiency, the fact that the construction of new roads in Tula with insufficient development of alternative modes of public transport, indirectly provokes the purchase of new cars by residents, is not taken into account. This is primarily due to the unattractiveness of public transport for people whose wealth allows them to buy a personal car. As a result of the increase in the number of cars, after the reconstruction or construction of new roads, the transport situation on the roads does not correspond to the design calculations but continues to deteriorate. According to analysts of the Yandex service â&#x20AC;&#x153;Traffic jamsâ&#x20AC;? by Leonid Mednikov [1], since 2014, the increase in traffic jams in Tula has been approximately five percent per year. Currently, in Tula, much attention is paid to the reconstruction of existing roads: ground pedestrian crossings are being replaced with underground and above-ground ones, traffic-free multilevel interchanges are being built instead of single-level ones, entry pockets for public transport are being created, the roadway is being expanded, dedicated lanes for public transport and reverse lanes are being created. Road and bridge construction in the city has its characteristics: dense traffic flow of cars and pedestrians, lack of free land, the need to re-lay a large number of engineering communications, a saturation of the urban environment with historical and cultural objects. The city is a historical and cultural tourist center, so the construction of seemingly unattractive objects that violate the historical appearance can not only make the city less comfortable to live in, but also worsen the image of the city, reduce the attendance of its tourists. Since reconstruction prevails in large cities, it is necessary to conduct opinion polls.

2. THEORETICAL BASIS Since cars are a source of pollution, the environmental effect is important. Often, when building a new or expanding an existing road in the city, thousands of trees have to be cut down, which causes huge damage to the city's ecology. Compensatory gardening, in this case, is

Sergey Shulzhenko and Alexander Scherbakov

ineffective, since new trees will grow only in 30-40 years after planting. Often, there are no plots that can be used for landscaping activities, and in this case, the damage caused as a result of the construction is compensated in cash [2, 3].

Figure 2: Comparative evaluation of project “Effectiveness of road and bridge construction”. It is equally important to determine the priority of investment in road and bridge construction projects. Investing the same amount in different projects can produce very different results. The calculation is usually given as an estimate of road construction. The construction of various road and bridge facilities has a different duration and can last from several months to several years. Often during construction, and especially during the reconstruction of existing roads, the transport situation deteriorates. In this regard, it is more profitable to build pre-fabricated objects in the first place. It is also important to continue financing objects in the previously selected main directions of development of the road network, otherwise, if the number and width of lanes on different sections of the road do not match, the previously invested funds will not give the desired result.

3. METHODOLOGY When building roads, it is necessary, first of all, to evaluate the social and social effectiveness of projects. In some cases, it may be more profitable to invest in the development of other types of urban transport and apply restrictive measures in the Central part of the city for personal passenger and commercial trucks. The success of this method of solving the transport problem was confirmed by the positive experience of many large foreign cities.

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Attracting funds from private and institutional investors is a promising way to improve the efficiency of road and bridge construction. For the effective participation of investors, it is *Corresponding author (S.Shulzhenko) Email: Shulzh79@mail.ru ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.137

necessary to develop a mechanism for interaction between the city and the investor when approving urban planning and transport schemes and a mechanism for financing transport facilities from extrabudgetary sources. Other roads, toll railway crossings, transport junctions near commercial objects, and entrances to commercial objects can be considered as objects of interest for extra-budgetary financing.

4.1 CONSTRUCTION COSTS When making a decision, it is very important to determine the structure of construction costs. In some cases, if you invest significant funds, you can get a very small positive effect due to the high costs of clearing the territory and re-laying engineering communications. The most expensive are artificial structures on highways (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Structure of costs for transport map objects.

4.2 ECONOMIC EVALUATION The methodological principles of the economic evaluation of the effectiveness of investments in the road sector developed in this article justify the need to account for inflation using the discount coefficient, which takes into account the relative decrease in costs and results when they are removed over time. The specific value of the discount rate depends on several factors, such as investment goals and project implementation conditions; the level of inflation; the amount of investment risk; alternative capital investment opportunities, etc. In this regard, we have considered the components of the discount rate and determined its lower and upper limits.

4.3 INVESTMENT PROJECTS CONDITIONS This article proposes to calculate the system of integral indicators of the public (national economic), budget and commercial efficiency of investment projects under the following conditions: - the discount rate changes over time taking into account changes in the Central Bank's refinancing rate; - inflation is taken into account, and its rates differ by individual structural elements (different types of products or services and costs) and reflect possible changes in wages, materials, fuel, electricity, etc.); - the elements of costs and results are set in base prices, taking into account inflation, the transition to forecast prices is made (the system of calculated prices).

Sergey Shulzhenko and Alexander Scherbakov

4.4 RISK OF LOSS OR ABANDON ROAD PROJECTS If there is a significant risk of loss during the implementation of a road project or if it is abandoned, the total value of the discount (E) consists of its base value (Ebas) and the additive determined by the level of risk of the project (Er): E = Ebas + Er. The Er value is set by the developer taking into account the conditions for implementing a specific project. The risk levels for different groups of investments are considered and the recommended values of Er are presented: very low risk-7 %; low risk -10 %; average risk-15%; high risk-20%; very high risk-25%.

4.5 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS The effectiveness of investment road projects [5] is characterized by a system of indicators that reflect the ratio of results and costs associated with their implementation in relation to the interests of their participants. The system of integrated performance indicators for investment projects includes the integral effect (đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸(đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; ) ); the profitability index (PI); the internal rate of return (IRR); the payback period including discounting (tok); and integrated costs. If NPV>0, the return on the investment project exceeds the return set by the discount rate. if NPV=0, its return is equal to the discount rate. If NPV < 0, the project's profitability is lower than the specified norm and it should be abandoned. All investment performance indicators are calculated taking into account the specifics of road projects. The value of the national economic effect NEE, obtained in the year t when implementing a road investment project, can be determined from đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą + â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2C6;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2C6;&#x2019; â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2C6;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(1),

where đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is the expected gross regional product in year t; â&#x2C6;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą - expected increase in the gross regional product as a result of the implementation of the road program in the year t;

â&#x2C6;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą - volume of total expenses (capital investments, current expenses) in the year t in road objects included in the road program. The investment costs associated with the implementation of the road project include capital investments and operating expenses, which are determined by the road project estimate, and at the pre - project stage-by consolidated estimates made using standards for specific capital investments, consolidated indicators of the estimated cost or indicators of similar objects. Indicators of economic efficiency of investments in the road sector are determined by the following formulas: Integral effect (đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸ (đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; )) đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸(đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; ) = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;

(1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

)đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

+ â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

â&#x2C6;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;

(1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

)đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

â&#x2C6;&#x2019; â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

â&#x2C6;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą )đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(2),

where đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is the discount rate (norm) accepted for calculations. Internal rate of return (đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??ź): â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;

(1+đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

)đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

+ â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

â&#x2C6;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;

(1+đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

)đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

= â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

â&#x2C6;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(1+đ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ??źđ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą )đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(3),

Profitability index (đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;): *Corresponding author (S.Shulzhenko) Email: Shulzh79@mail.ru ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.137

đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192; =

â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030; â&#x2C6;&#x2020;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030; +â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0 (1+đ??¸đ??¸ )đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą )đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

(4).

â&#x2C6;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

(1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą )đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

Payback period (with discounting) of investments: đ?&#x2018;&#x2021;đ?&#x2018;&#x2021; =

â&#x2C6;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą )đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030; đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030; đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0 (1+đ??¸đ??¸ )đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą +â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0 (1+đ??¸đ??¸ )đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą

â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą=0

(5).

When determining the integral indicators of commercial efficiency of investments, the calculations should include cash inflows and outflows only from investment and operating activities. As additional indicators for evaluating the commercial efficiency of investments, the author of this article suggests using the full repayment period of the debt and the share of each participant in the total investment volume. The accumulated real money balance is defined as the sum of capital inflows and outflows resulting from the implementation of a road project in year t. If the integral effect values are positive when comparing different variants of a road investment project, then we can expect that all prospective investors will participate in its financing. Determination of commercial efficiency for enterprises that are in close proximity to roads, construction, major repairs or reconstruction of which they can Finance. For these investors, the efficiency of investing in road investment projects may be higher than for other participants. It can be expressed as đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; = â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;=0

đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; )đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

â&#x2C6;&#x2019; â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;=0

â&#x2C6;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; )đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

+ â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;=0

đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(1+đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; )đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

(6),

where đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; is the net discounted income of the i-th road project participant; đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; is the return on capital employed of the i-th participant; â&#x2C6;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; : expenses of the i-th participant;

đ??¸đ??¸đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; : increase in the income of the i-th participant as a result of the implementation of the road investment project. When implementing road investment projects (Ci), many participants who organize their own trade business approximately the road (Ci) can get a greater commercial effect from the implementation of road and their own projects. I.e. complementary investment projects in the form of a synergistic effect that provides an excess of the commercial effect from the Autonomous implementation of each investment project, in the form of Edi + Eci< EU

(7),

where Edi and Eci are the economic effects of implementing complementary investment projects, EU-economic effect of joint implementation of complementary investment projects Di and Ci. To solve this problem, we use a computer, two programming languages (QBasic V. 1. 1 and Turbo Pascal V. 7. 0 [8]), and a module of the ORTHO program annotated in the "Guidelines for using the ECON application package in the educational process for solving problems in the field of Economics, organization and production planning" [2]. Using the proposed methodology for long-term planning of road development allows you to search for the optimal solution, taking into account the limited financing of the road sector.

Sergey Shulzhenko and Alexander Scherbakov

5. CONCLUSION It was established that for the effective functioning of the transport system, it is necessary not just to implement individual projects, but their systematic, systematic use when adjusting the general plans of the city of Tula. A promising direction for increasing the efficiency of road-bridge construction is to attract funds from private and institutional investors. For the effective participation of investors, it is necessary to develop a mechanism for interaction between the city and the investor when approving urban planning decisions for transport schemes and a mechanism for financing transport facilities from extra-budgetary sources.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding author.

7. REFERENCES [1] http://events.yandex.ru/lib/people/165754 [2] Shulzhenko S.N., Kievsky L.V., Volkov A.A. Investment policy of a customer-developer at the stage of organizational preparation of concentrated construction // Vestnik MGSU, Issue. 3, Moscow, 2016.S. 111-121 [3] The state program "Development of the transport system" [electronic resource]. Access mode: http://government.ru/programs/206/events (Accessed: October 2018) [4] Fedotenkov D.G., Padalko A.A. Investment and innovation potential as the basis for the development of the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy // Young student. 2014. 3. S. 565-572. [5] Hadonov E.M. Organization, planning and management of construction production. Textbook. M. DIA, 2010, 560 s. Professor Dr.Sergey Shulzhenko is Professor, Moscow state University of Civil Engineering. He holds a Doctor of Science degree. He is interested in

Alexander Scherbakov is associated with Department of Forensic Examinations, Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering: Saint Petersburg, Russia.

*Corresponding author (S.Shulzhenko) Email: Shulzh79@mail.ru ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07Q http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07Q.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.137

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07R

MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES EFFECT ON FOOD ITEMS CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN PAKISTAN 1

Kausar Naheed , Ijaz Hussain , Khair Uz Zaman & Naimat Ullah Babar

Department of Economics, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, PAKISTAN. Institute of Information & Technology, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, PAKISTAN. 3 Institute of Social Sciences, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, PAKISTAN. 2

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 16 July 2019 Received in revised form 09 December 2019 Accepted 29 January 2020 Available online 19 February 2020

Food is a basic need for all human beings and has a vast influence on households. In this regard, it becomes vital for a developing country like Pakistan, to get an advantage over the information about food demand determinants to project inclusive social policy towards agricultural food to develop the availability of food items that helps in building the household strength towards a better life. To measure the effects of different variables affecting food items consumption patterns in Pakistan, the study is being conducted using Working-Leser Approach, an econometric model. In Pakistan, as real income increases, the pattern for consumption suffers substantially and experiencing over time variations. Thus, decisions for investment need to be intended by agreeing for consumption patterns towards foods. In this connection, through OLS, regression analysis was done thereby testing the data regarding nine food items (fruit, pulse, sugar, vegetables, ghee, cereals, milk, tea, and meat). The mainstream variables, in the Pakistani context, have a major influence on ghee, cereals, and meat. In this regard, fruit & pulse are influenced by these variables on a secondary basis. Likewise, sugar & vegetables are on the respective series. However, the age of the household head does not influence the consumption of any of nine food items in consideration.

Keywords:

Working-Leser Model (WLM); Consumption demand; Food items; Food consumption; Food expenditure; OLS.

1. INTRODUCTION The persistent growing income in developing countries needs the patterns of consumption on a precondition to design the strategies to evade excess and shortages capacities in line with productions. Subsequently, to examine consumption pattern determinants, there is a dire need for the estimation for several constraints in functions towards consumption for numerous commodities *Corresponding author (Kausar Naheed). Email: naheedkosar125@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07R http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.138

(Allan, 1990). In Pakistan, the econometric demand analysis has been ignored persistently which results in various undesirable outcomes. Therefore, the linear expenditure modified system has been considered as the appropriate method for attaining parameters (LES) deprived of the price independent evidence to be realized (Yanrui, 1997). In recent decades, despite substantial progress, the goalmouth of passable nutrition and food for all is elusive still (Ali, 1981, Naheed and Hussain, 2020). Similarly, reports for world development uttered understanding that in Pakistan, in most studies, diverse models like demand ideal system, linear expenditure system, and linear approximate style have projected (Chihwa, 2001). So that it helps in forecasting future food demand in these revisions the issues those who have massive special effects are economic traditional variables that lead to inclined estimations of the income possessions and in turn food demand projections biased (Aziz, 2010). Though, to overwhelmed the same problematic issues, several socioeconomic variables in workings model dealing with the age of the household head, household head schooling years, industrial status, adult alike age, and employment simultaneously were measured (Geoffrey, 1998). The starvation is mainly the poverty reflection and common people have no sufficient earnings for foods. In this regard, agreeing to income slow-growing situations related to poor individuals is expected to affect the future, thus a huge number of people might persist underfed to overcome for decades (Ahmad, 1985). The long-term efficient policies are direly needed to rise the poor people's income level. In recent years, economists have to stress hard for â&#x20AC;&#x153;direct outbreakâ&#x20AC;? on the specific policies and poverty for growing insinuations for diverse groups in the societies. Thus, income redistribution is consequently evolving as the main objective policy in numerous countries, comprising Pakistan. Similarly, different ways are available, through which the independence of equitable more income distribution might be attained effectively (Kang & Chern, 2001). Likewise, in Pakistan, the direct transferal of capital (revenue) from the richest to poorest is happening over Ushar and Zakat policies. In this connection, objectives current study is about food pattern consumption in Pakistan to oversee the influence of the variation in income relatives shares of the diverse income level of consumption and groups on-demand composition as well as on the employment level in Pakistan (Ahmad, 1985). Hence the main objectives of the said study focus on; To expand the supply of essential food items at domestic production to meet probable future demands, being attentive for policy-maker in Pakistan. So the present study is an effort to suggest precautions for future demand in Pakistan. The foremost aim is to measure the effects of economic and demographic variables on food consumption patterns and then examine the main food-items in Pakistan because of enlarged food imports cost to overwhelm the foreign exchange gap.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW By clarifying the food demand phenomenon through analysis, the researchers explored these phenomena in different existing studies. More specifically, all earlier studies are given chronological data that presented a new system for demand equations (Deaton & Muellbavour, 1980). The new system highlights the budget shares concerning different supplies are related logarithms linearly to relative prices and real logarithms of entire expenditure. This model provides

Kausar Naheed, Ijaz Hussain, Khair Uz Zaman & Naimat Ullah Babar

a random order first estimate to demand systems. McCarthy and Desmond (1981) suggested consumer behavior theory that varies as of conservative style. The supple charges are presented for the routine goods and considered as quality measures. The quality effects issue towards the behavior of consumers has measured a demand model which is to some extent dissimilar from approaches at traditional manners. Cheema (1984) estimated employment and demand result of distributions alternative of the prevailing along with the income additional created over economic growth were examined in this study. The outcomes indicate that redistribution income all for households’ low income might raise the basic requirements to demand like wheat, pulse, and oils edible. Though some extra commodities demand will be declined. The existing studies revealed that poor household consumption level can be noticeably improved with redistribution income deprived of rich adverse effects. The effect of employment is establishing to be substantial and positive (Ahmad, 1985). The findings of the study revealed that existing income rearrangement with poor will rise the food demands, foot-wear and clothing and accommodation while demand personal belongings, gasoline might be miscellaneous and light services and goods might decline. The supplies by which demands might increase significantly comprise fish, meat, cereals edible and oils poultry. Consumption optimistic special effects are stronger also than in all cases negative special effects, therefore resultant in an aggregate increase in expenditure consumption. Eatazaz (2007) examined rural-urban consequences that show that fringe expenditure consumption in higher in urban areas for households’ migrants. The expenditure increased intake is not essentially wicked as these infer the bigger claim for services and goods when these are produced locally might be useful quite. However, the consumption increased is mainly for services and goods which are forced that one desires to explore the configuration of the said demands cautiously. Burney (1991) observed in Pakistan the consumption household patterns by assessing three diverse functional procedures of curve Engel likewise Working-Leser, double logarithmic and linear for six diverse groups of income. Thus, using household data aiming at the influence of the size of household and households’ expenditure patterns for composition. It is clarified using quantitative and qualitative changes in basket intake. It is also pointed out that the scale economies' existence, which is not different only crosswise commodities however widely varies across groups of income. The further evidence reveals that composition in general, for households have not substantial influence in Pakistan on patterns consumption. Kerrry and Waehler (2002) examined the same by analyzing the special sound effects of milk advertising demand. The decision is that, though advertising of milk has an optimistic influence on demand for total milk however is not lucrative for marketers. It is found that numerous cross-commodity sound effects are negative and significant advertising effects cross-advertising for cold-hot drinking goods for demand lower fat-milk. The values revealed that the demands system approach is valuable for revising the sound belongings of fluid advertising general milk. Awadu (2004) pointed out that malnutrition is caused usually by factors and inadequate food that effect utilization nutrients in the bodies of humans. The indication of income and elasticity price for the group foods and individual foods is very reedy (Naheed and Hussain, 2020). Consequently, the current study underwrites literature by consuming the most recent data-survey from Tanzania to study in what way *Corresponding author (Kausar Naheed). Email: naheedkosar125@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07R http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.138

characteristics of price expenditure, socio-economic and food demands.

3. METHODOLOGY The researcher estimated the special effects of the several economic and demographic variables on each food item's demands. Resultantly, estimation for nine commodities through regression measures comprising sugar, tea, milk, pulses, cereals, meat, ghee, vegetables, and fruit were considered and illustrated over the application of Working-Leser Model (WLM). Some other models are available also likewise Tobit model, almost-ideal demand systems and linear expenditure system, however, because of data usefulness and constraints in the model being single equation model, the researcher applied the WLM. As cross-sectional data is being used that usually has the price given in time in one-point, therefore, WLM is useful as â&#x20AC;&#x153;it does not involve pricesâ&#x20AC;?. Consequently, the researcher selected the desired model which can fulfill the assumption pattern. By chance, WLM contents the said assumption. One of the instances of the demands system is Workingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s model (1943) which expresses the shares of the budget for goods as it is the log-linear function towards prices and in question, the total expenditure towards foods item. Given by Leser (1963) and Working (1943), unique form the desired models, WLM is a model for single equations that at a time pact with single equation estimation. More exactly, the following model has been used in the present research study wherein a description of these items have been presented in Table 1: đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź0 + đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; log đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ + â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; log đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014; + â&#x2C6;&#x2018;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; đ??ťđ??ťđ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC; + đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

where đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;ź0 , đ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x203A;źđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; , đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x203A;˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; , đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; are regression coefficients while đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x153;&#x20AC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; indicates the error term. Table 1: Description of the Items.

SN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Items

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

Description Expenditure food share i among food items (nine)

(i, j) & đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;đ?&#x2018;&#x2014;

food share i , food items j & Food price (Pj)

EARN Age-1Per Age-2Per Age-3Per Age-4Per Edu & Age AGRI Ln (Exp) CONST Manufacturer Transport S_P_SERV W_SALE PE Other Employer SE

â&#x20AC;&#x153;No of total earnersâ&#x20AC;? â&#x20AC;&#x153;No of family members I up-to 5 yearsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; ageâ&#x20AC;? group â&#x20AC;&#x153;No of family members I the age groupâ&#x20AC;? (6-12years) â&#x20AC;&#x153;No of family members (I) age groupâ&#x20AC;? (above 18 years) â&#x20AC;&#x153;No of family members (I) age groupâ&#x20AC;? (13-18 years) Head Schooling Years & Household Head Age If the head industry is agriculture then 1, else 0 Log of food expenditure monthly If the head industry is construction (=1), else 0 When the head industry is manufacturing then 1, else 0 If a head industry is a transport then 1, else 0 If â&#x20AC;&#x153;industry of head is social & personal servicesâ&#x20AC;? 1, otherwise 0 If a head industry is wholesales then 1, else 0 If a head status of employment is paid-employees then 1, else 0 If a head industry is other then 1, else 0 If the head status of employment is employer then 1, else 0 If head employment status is self-employed then 1, else 0

đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ đ??ťđ??ťđ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;

Total expenditure for foods on all items (model) Comprises the below Economic and Demographic variables:

Kausar Naheed, Ijaz Hussain, Khair Uz Zaman & Naimat Ullah Babar

(1),

Equation (1) is estimated over the method of the ordinary least squares (OLS). Subsequently, the WLM is the model of a single equation, thus, the researchers estimated such math model for share budget about nine commodities. Hence, by varying the criterion variable (wi) concerning nine times, the researcher conduct the regression for the nine commodities which are milk, meat, cereals, vegetables, ghee, tea, fruits, pulses, and sugar.

4. RESULTS By linking the significance level, the regression procedure is used by applying the WorkingLesser Model (OLS) for data analysis around nine items of foods. Tables 1, 2, and 3 have been depicted and measured the effects of economic and demographic variables on nine food items (j) consumption patterns. Table 2: OLS Results (Working-Leser Model). Variables (Constant) No. of earners Age1_per Age2_per Age3_per Adult equivalence Schooling HEAD Agriculture LN_ Food Expend Constant Manufacturer Transport w_sale Others s_p_serv Se Pe Other Employer Age

Coefficient p-value Coefficient p-value PULSE TEA 0.026 <0.001* 0.058 <0.001* <0.001 0.006* -0.002 <0.001* -0.002 0.001* -0.001 0.678 <0.001 0.849 -0.001 0.602 -0.001 0.118 -0.001 0.699 <0.001 <0.001* 0.001 <0.001* <0.001 <0.001* <0.001 0.252 0.003 0.001* 0.005 0.068 -0.010 <0.001* -0.002 0.005* 0.002 0.003* 0.001 0.699 <0.001 0.957 -0.004 0.165 0.001 0.322 0.007 0.016* <0.001 0.672 0.003 0.215 0.002 0.028* 0.006 0.025* 0.001 0.205 0.001 0.675 -0.001 0.198 -0.004 0.167 -0.001 0.381 0.002 0.485 -0.001 0.121 <0.001 0.941 -0.002 0.120 -0.003 0.445 <0.001 0.020 <0.001 0.795 *significant 1%, **significant 5%

Coefficient p-value SUGAR 0.107 <0.001* -0.002 <0.001* 0.002 0.511 0.003 0.298 -0.001 0.792 0.001 <0.001* -0.001 <0.001* 0.001 0.686 -0.013 <0.001* 0.001 0.745 -0.007 0.058 -0.003 0.443 -0.005 0.229 0.001 0.710 -0.002 0.591 0.001 0.800 0.003 0.374 -0.005 0.181 -0.006 0.350 <0.001 0.845

However, the results Table 2, the regression results of three commodities are discussed one by one. Tea: Many earners, Adult Equivalent significantly affecting the consumption of tea. Similarly, its expenditure effect is also significant but negative, because its coefficient is significant at 1 % level. As for as the industrial classification of the household is concerned the heads engaged in the transport and other sector demand more tea as compared with the agriculture sector. For the rest of the household heads, the demand for tea does not matter for the specific industry. Sugar: Several earners and Adult equivalent significantly affect the consumption of sugar. Similarly, its food expenditure effect is significant, years of schooling HEAD too, but negative because its coefficient is significant at 1 % level. As per the industrial classification is concerned, the demand for sugar does not matter for the specific industry. Pulses: No. of earners, age2_per, HEAD schooling years, Adult equivalence, LN-monthly expenditure food, Agri, const and others are the variables affecting the consumption of pulses in Pakistan. *Corresponding author (Kausar Naheed). Email: naheedkosar125@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07R http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.138

Table 3: Results OLS (Working-Leser Model) Variables (Constant) No. of earners Age1_per Age2_per Age3_per Adult equivalence Schooling HEAD Agriculture LN Food Expend Manufacture Constant Transport s_p_serv w_sale Se Pe Other Employer Age

Coefficient P-value Coefficient p-value FRUIT MILK 0.038 <0.001* 0.236 <0.001* <0.001 0.498 0.002 0.087 0.005 0.001* -0.006 0.424 0.001 0.368 0.020 0.010* 0.009 <0.001* 0.002 0.684 -0.001 <0.001* -0.009 <0.001* <0.001 <0.001* <0.001 0.283 -0.004 0.019* 0.013 0.129 -0.006 <0.001* 0.062 <0.001* -0.001 0.545 0.011 0.229 -0.002 0.222 -0.004 0.682 -0.003 0.115 -0.002 0.867 -0.002 0.205 0.006 0.503 -0.002 0.280 -0.003 0.757 0.002 0.343 0.005 0.548 0.001 0.782 -0.003 0.696 -0.002 0.391 -0.004 0.640 0.009 0.003* -0.022 0.119 <0.001 0.137 <0.001 0.240 *significant 1%, **significant 5%

Coefficient p-value MEAT 0.140 <0.001* -0.002 0.013* -0.024 <0.001* -0.029 <0.001* -0.027 <0.001* -0.003 <0.001* 0.001 <0.001* 0.005 0.308 0.008 <0.001* 0.010 0.091 0.009 0.094 0.015 0.009* 0.009 0.092 0.018 0.001* -0.013 0.015* -0.011 0.043* -0.011 0.045* -0.006 0.455 <0.001 0.742

In Table 3, three food items are considered. The first is Milk! Age1_per, adult equal, Ln_monthly expenditure food, are variables affect consumption of Milk in Pakistan. The next food item in the above table is Meat! All most all variables affecting the consumption of meat, which means a very sensitive response to the consumption of meat if there is any kind of change in demographic or economic variables. The last food item in said table (b) is Fruit! Age2_per, age3_per, HEAD schooling years, adult equivalence, LN_monthly expenditure food, Agri, and employer are significantly affecting the consumption of fruit in Pakistan. Table 4: Results OLS (Working-Leser Model) Variables (Constant) No. of earners Age1_per Age2_per Age3_per Adult equivalence Schooling HEAD Agriculture LN Food Expend Manufacturer w_sale Constant s_p_serv Transp Others Se Pe Age Employer

Coefficient P-value Coefficient p-value VEGETABLES GHEE 0.045 <0.001* 0.178 <0.001* <0.001 0.408 0.001 0.018* <0.001 0.802 0.001 0.867 -0.001 0.256 0.012 0.005* <0.001 0.792 0.004 0.279 0.001 <0.001* 0.004 <0.001* <0.001 <0.001* <0.001 0.583 0.001 0.400 -0.020 <0.001* -0.016 <0.001* -0.042 <0.001* -0.002 0.187 -0.010 0.037* -0.002 0.138 -0.014 0.004* <0.001 0.951 -0.017 0.001* -0.001 0.565 -0.011 0.015* -0.002 0.083 -0.010 0.056 -0.001 0.637 -0.016 0.001* 0.002 0.181 0.011 0.022** 0.001 0.262 0.010 0.027* <0.001 0.004 <0.001 0.363 -0.001 0.809 0.020 0.009* *Significant 1%. **significant 5%

Coefficient p-value CEREALS 0.229 <0.001* -0.001 0.124 -0.050 <0.001* -0.019 0.003* -0.016 0.009* 0.009 <0.001* -0.004 <0.001* -0.006 0.379 -0.042 <0.001* -0.022 0.004* -0.017 0.023* 0.002 0.749 -0.012 0.101 -0.011 0.138 -0.011 0.154 0.011 0.128 0.017 0.019* <0.001 0.046 -0.001 0.911

Table 4, Cereals, Ghee, Vegetables are analyzed to categories the items food that is pretentious by economic variables under consideration. Cereals: age 1_per,2 and 3, schooling years, adult equivalence and LN_monthly expenditure food, significantly affecting consumption of Cereals but

Kausar Naheed, Ijaz Hussain, Khair Uz Zaman & Naimat Ullah Babar

negative because its coefficient is significant at a 1% level. As for as industrial classification of the household head is concerned the heads engaged in w-sale and pe sector demand more cereals as compared to Agri and Manuf. For the rest of the household heads, the demand for cereals does not matter for the specific industry. Ghee: no of earners, age 2_per, adult equivalence, LN_monthly food expenditure significantly affecting consumption of Ghee. The household heads of all most all industries demand Ghee more than other food items. The conclusion explains that if there is a change in demographic or economic variables, the consumption pattern of Ghee must be changed. Vegetables, only three variables are there, namely schooling_HEAD Years, equivalent Adult and third is LN_monthly expenditure food, affecting the consumption of vegetables.

5. CONCLUSION In Pakistan, the mainstream of variables under considerations have a significant effect on ghee, meat, and cereals. The items fruit and pulse are pretentious by the variables under consideration on the secondary number. Likewise, vegetables and sugar are items on the third number. Though, the head-household age has no significant result on the nine items of the food respectively. Therefore, Table 1 major food items can be ranked in order, keeping in view adult equivalence approach in urban regions as follows; milk, cereals, meat; in rural areas situation is as follows; cereals, milk, vegetables; While in overall Pakistan, results indicate that; milk, cereals, meat; considering Table 2 results, keeping in view average relative share are same in rural, urban and overall Pakistan as follows and cereals, milk, vegetable Table 3. This study offers rich information and a real picture of the effective estimation of food demands in overall Pakistan. Consequently, by using WLM, the data has been analyzed. In regression, the estimation report presents an analysis of the behavior of food consumption considering demographic and economic variables in this regard. The above information can help policymakers in making decisions for allocating scarce resources in the best way, especially in developing countries like Pakistan.

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors

7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors appreciate the financial supports from Gomal University (Grant# Gomal244).

8. REFERENCES Ahmad, C. A. (1985). Changes in Consumption Patterns and Employment under Alternative Income Distributions in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, XXIV (1). Ali, M. S. (1981). Rural-urban consumption patterns in Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 20 (2), 85-94 Allan, N. R. (1990). Food consumption pattern and nutrition in urban Java households: the discriminatory power of some socioeconomic variables. The Australian Journal of agriculture and resource economics, 43(3), 359-383. Awudu, A. (2004). A Cross-section Analysis of Household Demand for Food and Nutrients in Tanzania. Agricultural Economics, 31, 67-79. Aziz, B. (2010). Household Consumption Patterns in Pakistan: A Rural-Urban Analysis. Forman Journal of Economic Studies, 6, 1-25. *Corresponding author (Kausar Naheed). Email: naheedkosar125@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07R http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07R.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.138

Burney, N. (1991). Household consumption pattern in Pakistan; An urban rural comparison using micro data. The Pakistan development reviews 30(2), 145-171. Cheema, A. A. (1984). Consumption and employment effect of income redistribution in Pakistan. The Pakistan development review vole, XXIII. Chihwa, K. (2001). Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Linear Expenditure System with Binding Non-Negativity Constraints. Analysis of economics and Finance, 2, 203-223. Deaton, A., & Muellbaver, J. (1980). An almost ideal demand system. The American Economic Review, 70(3), 312-326 Eatazaz, A. (2007). Household Budget Analysis for Pakistan under varying the Parameter Approach. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad. Working Papers 41. Geoffrey, L. (1998). Comparison of Alternative Models of Household Equivalence Scales: The Australian Evidence on Unit Record Data. The Economic Record, 74(224), 1-14. Kang, E. L., & Chern, W. (2001). Impacts of income changes and model specification on food demand in urban China. 5-8. Kerrry, R., & Waehler, G. (2002). Fluid milk consumption and demand response to advertising for nonalcoholic beverages. Agriculture and food science in Finland, 1113-24. McCarthy, M., & Desmond, F. (1981). Quality Effects in Consumer Behavior. The Pakistan Development Review, XX, 2. Naheed, K., Hussain, I. (2020). Elasticity Measurement of Food Demand in Pakistan: Cross-Price And Own Price Elasticity Analysis. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. 11(5), 1105S: 1-6. Rehman, A. (1963). Expenditure elasticity in Rural West Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 3(2), 232-249. Yanrui, W. U. (1997). Household grain consumption in China, effect of income, price and Urbanization. Asian Economic Journal, 2(3). Kausar Naheed is a PhD Scholar at department of economics, Gomal University Dera Ismaiel Khan (KPK) Pakistan. She is Principal of Quid-e-Azam Academy for Educational Development Kamalia.

Dr. Ijaz Hussain is an Associate Professor at Department of Economics, Gomal University Dera Ismail Khan. He got a PhD degree in Economics. His research is in the field of Economics. He can be reached at ijazecoqau @ gmail.com.

Dr. Khair Uz Zaman is Professor and Director at COMSATS Institute of Information & Technology, Vihari Campus. He got a PhD degree in Economics. He is well-known researcher in the field of Economics relevant to Information & Technology.

Dr. Naimatullah Babar is Professor and Director at Institute of Social Sciences, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan. His research is in the field of Economics. He got a PhD degree in Economics. He can be reached at niamatullahbabar @ gmail.com.

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International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07S

THE ORIGINS OF RUSSIAN LIBERAL JURISPRUDENCE: B.A. KISTYAKOVSKY’S PHILOSOPHY AND SOCIOLOGY OF LAW Gennady S. Pratsko

, Julia I. Isakova 2 , Olga A. Andreeva 3

Department of Commercial and Entrepreneurial Law, Don State Technical University, Rostov-on-Don, RUSSIA 2 Department of Criminal Law and Criminalistics, Don State Technical University, Rostov-on-Don, RUSSIA. 3 Department of Theory and History of State and Law, Taganrog Institute of Management and Economics, Taganrog, RUSSIA. ARTICLEINFO

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Article history: Received 12 September 2019 Received in revised form 27 January 2020 Accepted 07 February 2020 Available online 21 February 2020

The theories of Russian liberalism were a search for the limits of what is possible in the evolutionary development of the state and law. They proposed various combinations and configurations of models of the transformation of statehood, the concept of revived natural law, constitutionalism, law and freedom, etc., which were the theoretical basis of Russian liberal jurisprudence. The representatives of liberalism were based on the ideas of neo-Kantianism, neolibianism, neonegaglianism and other currents of Western philosophy, looking for political and legal concepts that could predict and substantiate the future development of the Russian state and law. One of the representatives of the new liberal philosophy was B.A. Kistyakovsky, the importance of his research for modern legal science, practice and the formation of Russian liberal jurisprudence is presented.

Keywords:

Russian liberalism; Russian revolution; State law; Freedom, Philosophical liberalism; Individual rights; Subjective law, Russian jurisprudence.

Disciplinary: Multidisciplinary (Philosophy, Modernization, Law, Political Sciences, History).

Sociology

and

1. INTRODUCTION The reforms carried out in the Russian Empire in the second half of the 19th century did not lead to stability in a heated political struggle of ideas and parties about the future of the state and law, which became the subject of discussions, which were mainly conformist in nature. The conservative intelligentsia, relying on the Russian national idea, proposed an audit of the foundations of the revolutionary worldview, which, in their opinion, boiled down to seizing state power and the national treasure. They did not consider their philosophical opponents to be scientists, but exclusively publicists. The representatives of liberalism demanded the modernization of public authority, administrative structures, guaranteeing political rights and freedoms, which was widely recognized in the public mind and reflected the interests of those who sought to rebuild the *Corresponding author (G.S. Pratsko). Tel: +7-928-777-00-00 ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.139

state and society on the basis of bourgeois market relations. In parallel with them there was anarchism, advocating self-government and rejection of the state; populism, trying to raise the peasantry to the revolution and others. Russian philosophers, representatives of a religious school, advocated a spiritual revolution in the minds of people. Hopes were also pinned on the raznochintsy, but, as it turned out, not one of these theories was ready for a revolutionary mission. One of the representatives of the new liberal philosophy was Bogdan Aleksandrovich Kistyakovsky (1868-1920). He completed his university education in 1898 with a defense of his dissertation on the subject of “Society and Individuality,” which was published in Berlin and was highly praised by the scientific community. It analyzed the concepts of sociology and psychology used in the philosophical sciences of that time and concluded that the idealistic constructions of the sociological theory of Slavophilism and Narodism were sterile. Over the years, he studied law at the University of Heidelberg, repeatedly went abroad to study the concepts of legalization conducted by scientific schools at renowned universities in Europe. His further activities in St. Petersburg, Kiev and Moscow were connected with educational, scientific work and the publication of its results in left-wing journals. In 1919, B.A. Kistyakovsky was elected a full member of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences and, together with its first president V.I. Vernadsky, made a trip to Rostov-on-Don to General A.I. Denikin in order to protect the interests of science and the academy. During this trip in 1920, he fell ill and died. Despite the fact that the work of Bogdan Alexandrovich is a century away from the present, his works can be considered the most noticeable contribution to the formation of Russian philosophy and sociology of law, based on the methodology of social sciences and the general theory of law.

2. METHOD At the beginning of his scientific activity, B. A. Kistyakovsky was one of the followers of legal Marxism, uniting a number of brilliant philosophers and publicists, such as P. B. Struve, N.A. Berdyaev, S.N. Bulgakov, L.S. Frank, V.V. Rozanov and others. In parallel with legal Marxism, B.A. Kistyakovsky was interested in the ideas of neo-Kantianism by G. Simmel, W. Windelband, who argued that philosophy is “... a critical science of universally binding values” (Windelband, 1904). As a normative doctrine, philosophy is based on value judgments and knowledge of what is due, that is, it reflects social problems, which in principle can be reduced to ethical ones. In his research, B.A. Kistyakovsky developed the ideas of liberal democracy, considering them a creative continuation of Marxism (Kistyakovsky, 1998), from which he gradually departs and comes to philosophical idealism. He is interested in questions of the essence of law, legal relations, legal understanding, and liberation movements of the beginning of the XX century. As a result, a peculiar synthesis of the advanced ideas of neo-Kantian methodology and sociology took place in his work, which made it possible to use them in the process of analyzing the possibilities of preventing revolution through the formation of legal awareness and legal culture. The field of law becomes the object of his work; it revealed his ability to generate ideas that were controversially perceived by contemporaries, making them an object of discussion.

Gennady S. Pratsko, Julia I. Isakova, Olga A. Andreeva

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 3.1 LIBERALISM OF B.A. KISTYAKOVSKY AS A MODEL FOR REFORMING RUSSIAN STATEHOOD OF THE LATE XIX - EARLY XX CENTURIES Most of the scientists, politicians and public figures of the Russian Empire in the late XIX early XX centuries agreed that the constitution, as the main law of the state, should take into account the interests of all segments of the population. But the surviving survivals of feudalism in the form of autocratic rule, social division of the society, privileges of the nobility, state control of the economy, etc., did not allow the bourgeoisie, intelligentsia and other sections of the population to fully participate in the political and economic life of the country. In the context of the pre-revolutionary situation, liberal ideology, Russian philosophers and publicists, opposed the modern state and law, but had no true idea of their future. This gap was filled with love for the people and blind faith in his special mission. The assumption of the leading role of the working class in the revolution met with objection and distrust in the scientific community and society. M.A. Bakunin wrote that “that beggarly proletariat, about which Marx and Engels speak with deep contempt and in vain, because in it and only in it, and not in the bourgeois layer of the working mass, lies the whole mind and all the strength of the future social Revolution ” (Bakunin, 1989). Any revolution is a socially significant event, but its uniqueness is not absolute. For example, in the 90s. XX century socialism in the USSR was dismantled by the same forces that in 1917 were the driving force of the revolution. According to the anarchists, wage laborers, due to the instability of their socio-economic and legal situation, are ready to quickly respond to slogans calling for the destruction of the existing rule of law. But spontaneous riots, expropriation of property, etc. are not a social revolution and cannot change any social relations. The Western European model of reforming public relations in the form of Protestant values of bourgeois society was not popular because of its opposition to Orthodox and popular values containing ethical maximalism. The Russian people’s negative attitude to power and law is not surprising if we recall that for centuries its interests were not taken into account and not protected by them. The people did not believe in power; they considered it unjust and hypocritical. If you draw a parallel, the modern legal system contains many legal norms aimed at combating corruption and other antisocial phenomena, but practice shows that these efforts are inadequate to the results. The theories of Russian liberalism can be seen as an experiment, a search for the limits of what is possible in the evolutionary development of the state and law. They proposed various combinations and configurations of models of the transformation of statehood, which were variations on the theme of developing imperialism, which tried to hide the vestiges of capitalism associated with the appropriation of the surplus product and the exploitation of man by man. Representatives of liberal thought were based on the ideas of neo-Kantianism, neolibianism, neonegaglianism and other currents of Western philosophy, looking for political and legal concepts that could predict and justify the future development of the Russian state and law. Bogdan Alexandrovich perceived the Russian revolution not as a social phenomenon, but as a spiritual one, since in parallel with the breaking of the material (economic) foundations of society, there was a process of understanding its moral content from opposite positions. Unlike the Marxist theory of historical materialism and classical economics, ethical socialism justified moral and *Corresponding author (G.S. Pratsko). Tel: +7-928-777-00-00 ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.139

humanistic principles as an addition to the theory of scientific socialism. Russian philosophical idealism paid more attention to evolution than revolution at a time when its political and legal ideas and slogans suppressed other points of view. The achievements of liberal philosophy were recognized by many scholars and politicians who considered them an alternative to revolution and class struggle, as they justified the evolutionary nature of the development of social relations, the preservation of private property and a market economy. Formulated by B.A. Kistyakovsky's ideas about the multivariate nature of social development did not abolish historical necessity, but allowed alternative options within its framework. He did not see a contradiction in the fact that revolution and anti-revolution are the result of a single historical process and can be evaluated from different points of view. Discussions about the essence of the revolution led to its understanding as a historically necessary form of transformation of social relations. Public opinion gradually began to trust science more than ideological constructions that could never be justified by history and exist because of people's credulity or their unwillingness to be responsible for their choice. After the revolution of 1905, the process of state-legal reforms began in Russia, actualizing the problems associated with the transformation of statehood. At this time, B.A. Kistyakovsky moves to the position of constitutionalism, exploring the possibility of establishing a constitutional monarchy in Russia. A. Zimin writes that “Kistyakovsky took the manifesto on October 17, 1905 as a full-fledged Constitution: the future constitutional order in Russia immediately became the object of his scientific interests, which prompted him to turn to understanding the “metaphysical” problems of state law and the practical issues of building a representative regime” (Zimin, 2000). The reforms required a scientific analysis of the forms of representative government, legal mechanisms for delimiting the powers of the branches of government, the essence of a system of checks and balances, which was reflected in a number of his articles (Kistyakovsky, 1998).

3.2 THE RULE OF LAW AND LEGAL CULTURE IN THE STUDY OF B.A. KISTYAKOVSKY A concretization of philosophical views is contained in the work “In Defense of Law”, in which he defines law as a socio-psychological and normative phenomenon, and the state as a form of legal organization of society with independence. Philosophical idealism leads B.A. Kistyakovsky to the idea of ethical validity of law, giving the opportunity to use it in state and cultural activities. The idea of cultural determinism of the entire social sphere, which, although it was a secondary product of his creative activity, made it possible to include Bogdan Aleksandrovich in a number of theorists who promoted it. As a Eurocentric, he transfers the principles of a European worldview into the legal practice and legal consciousness of non-European peoples, which made it possible to justify the essence of international law in the future. He considers law as the reason for the emergence of the state, while real states did not arise as a result of law, but because of socio-economic conditions. In this, Kistyakovsky does not contradict the Marxist philosophy of law, which believes that the state is a product of historical development. He believed that the law, which is formed in the bowels of the formations, promotes state building, being both the goal and, in this sense, the “formal cause” of the state. Law becomes the real force of the organization of the state, that is, the political, social, economic and cultural life of society. Thus, Kistyakovsky concludes that law is the basis of the modern state, linking with its modernization the

Gennady S. Pratsko, Julia I. Isakova, Olga A. Andreeva

reform of the modern Russian empire. The rule of law, in his opinion, is the highest form of political organization of society that mankind has developed, since power loses its initial violent character in it. From his point of view, the state “generally” does not exist, but there are separate ones that have their own history, economy, politics, and culture. The functions, mission, features of the institution of the state are recognized by the theory of state and law on the basis of the comparative method. The bourgeois state, having become the basis of a new paradigm of social development, put forward such values as “freedom, equality and fraternity”, enshrining them in constitutional law as the rights and freedoms of man and citizen, which raised social relations to a higher level of development. Recognition of them as the highest value, observance and protection has become the norm for a democratic state, which materialized the ideas of Russian social liberalism. Using the historical experience of developed countries to analyze the future of the Russian state, Kistyakovsky concludes that the rule of law is a natural result of the development of European statehood. A police state, driven over time by internal causes and contradictions, is able to become legal and democratic in the reform process. Contrasting the progressive nature of the rule of law of an absolute monarchy, he theoretically substantiates the place that Russia can occupy in the global socio-political and legal spaces. Kistyakovsky believed that Russian legal awareness and legal culture are significantly different from European ones. He wrote that “the dullness of the legal consciousness of the Russian intelligentsia and the lack of interest in legal ideas are the result of our long-standing evil - the absence of any legal order in the everyday life of the Russian people” (Kistyakovsky, 1991). Realizing the difference between the features of Russian culture from European, he considered it a universal standard for future social and cultural progress. This conclusion is equally explained by his commitment to both Marxism and neo-Kantianism, between which, from the point of view of the methodology of science, he did not see a significant difference. Marxism and neo-Kantian idealism equally appealed to the scientific and theoretical arguments in the history of state and law. Philosophical idealism in his works was specifically interpreted and used as a methodological basis for understanding the essence of contemporary ethical socialism, which implies the fact of evaluation, that is, the judgment of truth and lies, good and evil, beautiful and ugly and its consequences.

4. CONCLUSION Distinguishing the sciences of nature and society, man and his spiritual world (culture), focused on value standards, B.A. Kistyakovsky comes to the idea of human freedom in general and his personality in particular. As a supporter of philosophical idealism, he defines human nature not as a form of material existence, but as a culture understood as a spiritual phenomenon. From the fact of personal autonomy follows the principle of self-worth and equal value of people among themselves, which is reflected in the idea of subjective public rights and contributed over time to the formation of their legal consciousness. Man himself creates ideals for himself, based on autonomy and freedom, seeks their implementation through activity. There is a need in nature, there is no freedom in it, nor justice, understanding of which is an essential feature of human nature, as well as the *Corresponding author (G.S. Pratsko). Tel: +7-928-777-00-00 ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07S http://TUENGR.COM/V11A/11A07S.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.139

ability to create ideals. Therefore, the philosophy that limits metaphysics opens up opportunities for scientific studies of the ethical, aesthetic, social and legal spheres of human existence. A special place in the methodology of B.A. Kistyakovsky is concerned with the problem of logical obligation, which takes place both in the natural sciences and in the humanities. Norms and categories are inherent in human thinking and are obligatory for him; therefore, logical obligation penetrates both the natural sciences and the humanities, taking the form of specific laws, and determines the attainment of ultimate philosophical knowledge. Thus, Bogdan Aleksandrovich solves the complex problem of methodological substantiation of general laws in the humanitarian sphere and lays the methodological foundations for the development of social and legal sciences for the future. All of the above, makes B.A. Kistyakovsky is interesting for modern researchers and testifies to the importance of his work for the future.

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data used or generated from this study is available upon request to the corresponding author.

6. REFERENCES Bakunin M.A. Philosophy. Sociology. Politics. Moscow., 1989. 296. Windelband V. Preludes. St. Petersburg, 1904. 23 Kistyakovsky B.A. Philosophy and sociology of law; Social sciences and law; State law (general and Russian); Pages of the past. On the history of the constitutional movement in Russia, etc. St. Petersburg. 1998. Zimin A. About the origins of the Russian legal consciousness // Higher education in Russia. 2000. №1. 145. Kistyakovsky B.A. “Granted and Conquered Constitutions”, “Cabinet of Ministers and Government Responsibility”, “State Duma”, “How to implement a single national representation?” and etc., St. Petersburg. 1998. Kistyakovsky, B.A. In defense of law (intelligentsia and legal consciousness) // Milestones; The intelligentsia in Russia: Sat Art. 1909-1910. M., 1991. 113. Professor Dr. Gennady S. Pratsko is Professor at the Department of Commercial and Entrepreneurial Law, Don State Technical University, Rostov-on-Don, RUSSIA. He graduated from Rostov Law Institute of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation as a lawyer (specialist) and South Federal University as a manager (specialist). He got Doctoral degrees in Law and Philosophy. His specializations are in the fields of Philosophy of Law, Theory of State and Law, Civil Law. Professor Dr. Julia I. Isakova is Professor at the Department of Criminal Law and Criminalistics, Don State Technical University, Rostov-on-Don, RUSSIA. She graduated from South Federal University as a lawyer (specialist). She got Doctoral degrees in Law and Sociology. Her specializations are in the fields of Criminal Law, Medical Law, the implementation of Civilian Control in Modern Society during the Modernization Period.

Professor Dr. Olga A. Andreeva is Professor at the Department of Theory and History of State and Law, Taganrog Institute of Management and Economics (TIM&E), Taganrog, RUSSIA. She graduated from Leningrad State University, Leningrad, Soviet Union as a philosopher (specialist). She got her Doctoral degree in Philosophy. Her specializations are in the fields of History and Philosophy of Law.

Gennady S. Pratsko, Julia I. Isakova, Olga A. Andreeva

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07T

SIMULATION OF SEQUENTIAL PROCESSING OF A MOVING EXTENDED OBJECT 1*

Nikolay Mikhailovich Mishachev , Anatoly Mikhailovich Shmyrin , 1 Igor Ivanovich Suprunov 1

Department of Mathematics, Lipetsk State Technical University, Lipetsk, RUSSIA.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 11 September 2019 Received in revised form 20 January 2020 Accepted 07 February 2020 Available online 24 February 2020

In this article, we propose two models for the task of conveyor processing of a moving extended object. As a typical situation of such processing, the problem of cooling the hot rolling strip on the discharge roller table to achieve a given winding temperature profile is considered. The two models under consideration correspond, firstly to Euler coordinates, in which the conveyor base is stationary, and, secondly, to Lagrange coordinates, in which the processed strip is motionless. In both cases, we describe the neighborhood structure for the model, that is, a directed graph whose vertices correspond to the state and control variables of the model. The advantages and disadvantages of each of the two models are discussed.

Keywords: Neighborhood structures; neighborhood systems; conveyor processing; Euler coordinates; Lagrange coordinates.

1. INTRODUCTION The main motivation for this article was the well-known problem of modeling the process of forced cooling of the hot rolling strip on the discharge roller table by means of water shower units see, for example, [1, 2, 3]. In this article, we propose and consider an abstract and largely simplified statement of this problem. Namely, we consider a certain abstract process of sequential handling of a moving extended object (in what follows - the conveyor processing of a moving strip) by stationary devices. It is assumed that the properties of the strip are characterized by a onedimensional random process at the entrance to the conveyor and, in the general case, the strip has self-acting. In the original problem of cooling a hot-rolling strip, a one-dimensional random process is the input temperature recorded by the pyrometer, and self-interaction corresponds to internal heat transfer processes. We describe so called neighborhood structures (see [4, 5, 6]) for two discrete models of conveyor processing of the moving strip. The first model uses Euler variables associated with a fixed conveyor base while the strip is considered a moving part of the conveyor. In the second model, the Lagrange variables associated with the moving strip are used, so the processing devices are considered as moving objects. In subsequent publications on the basis of these *Corresponding author (Kausar Naheed). Email: naheedkosar125@gmail.com ©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07T http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.140

structures, firstly, discrete dynamic systems will be recorded and, secondly, an algorithm for controlling the on-off modes of processing devices depending on the random input process and on the processes inside the strip will be indicated. The purpose of the control is to approximate some predefined profile of the strip properties at the exit of the conveyor.

2. Method Description: Neighborhood structures and systems Suppose we are going to build a mathematical model of a process in the form of a discrete control system đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 = đ??šđ??š(đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą , đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą ) ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160; = đ??śđ??ś(đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą , đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą )

(1)

(see [7]). It is convenient, in many cases, to begin with the stage of constructing a neighborhood structure, see [4]-[6]. The concepts of the neighborhood structure and the corresponding neighborhood system have arisen as a generalization of the finite differences method and are especially convenient in those cases when the discrete system (1) corresponding to any particular problem is very sparse. The neighborhood structure đ?&#x201D;&#x2018;đ?&#x201D;&#x2018;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;) over a finite set đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030; is a connected digraph đ?&#x201D;&#x2018;đ?&#x201D;&#x2018; = â&#x201E;&#x153;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;, đ??¸đ??¸), containing vertices đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030; = đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; â&#x160;&#x201D; đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; â&#x160;&#x201D; đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160; of three types: inputs đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;, nodes đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; and outputs đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;, while: o o o o

each input đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; has only outgoing arcs of the form đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;(đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘,â&#x2C6;&#x2014;), where â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; â&#x160;&#x201D; đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;; each output đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤ â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160; has only incoming arcs of the form đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;(â&#x2C6;&#x2014;, đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤), where â&#x2C6;&#x2014; â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; â&#x160;&#x201D; đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;; each node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; has incoming and outgoing arcs; each node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; can have a loop đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;(đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ, đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ), which is considered both as incoming and as outgoing arc; any two nodes đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľâ&#x20AC;˛ , đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľâ&#x20AC;˛â&#x20AC;˛ â&#x2C6;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; can be connected by no more than two (oppositely directed) arcs đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;(đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ â&#x20AC;˛ , đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ â&#x20AC;˛â&#x20AC;˛ ) and đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;(đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľâ&#x20AC;˛â&#x20AC;˛, đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ â&#x20AC;˛ ).

The arcs of a neighborhood structure are also called connections or links. In the figures, the nodes are represented by circles, the entrances and exits by squares. All inputs đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; are divided into ďż˝ and external uncontrolled inputs đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; ďż˝. two classes: internal controlled inputs đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; The neighborhood system associated with the neighborhood structure đ?&#x201D;&#x2018;đ?&#x201D;&#x2018;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;đ?&#x2018;&#x2030;) consists of equations for the nodes and outputs of the structure, such that: o

o o o

for each input đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; , node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; and output đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; there is a corresponding (scalar or vector) variable đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;) and đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;);

for each node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; and each output đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; there is a corresponds (scalar or vector) equation;

the equation for each node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; contains only variables corresponding to the vertices from đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; and đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;, entering this node; the equation for each output đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; contains only variables corresponding to the vertices from đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; and đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;, entering this output.

In the general case, the equations of a neighborhood system can be explicit or implicit, static or dynamic; dynamic equations can be discrete or continuous. In this paper, it is assumed that all equations of the neighborhood system are explicit discrete-dynamic equations of the form đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;) = đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (â&#x2C6;&#x2014;) (for nodes) and đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;) = đ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (â&#x2C6;&#x2014;) (for outputs). Depending on the presence or absence of a loop đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;đ?&#x2018;&#x2019;(đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ, đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ), the equation đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;) = đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (â&#x2C6;&#x2014;) for the node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; contains or does not contain the variable đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;) in the right-hand side. Let us explain the appearance of the superscript đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą in the right-hand sides of the equations. It is

Kausar Naheed, Ijaz Hussain, Khair Uz Zaman & Naimat Ullah Babar

usually assumed that the neighborhood structure completely determines the set of variables on the right-hand sides of the equations, namely, this set corresponds to the existing arcs. However, in the case when the system is not stationary, the set of arcs and, therefore, the set of variables may depend on time. In our definition of a neighborhood structure, a change in arcs over time is not provided. The reason is that for neighborhood structures there is a natural analogue of the transition to an extended phase space, which allows us to always consider only structures with constant arcs, i.e., as in the our definition. Unfortunately, after extension, the neighborhood structure often becomes too complex. This applies also to our problem, regardless of the choice of coordinate system, Euler or Lagrange. To simplify the exposition and drawings, we choose a compromise option when the structure does not expand, and instead, for each vertex, all arcs activated at any moment of time are considered. In order to write down the equations of a non-stationary neighborhood system in this case, we need additional information about arcs activated at each given moment of time. We reflect this in the presence of the variable đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą in đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą and đ??śđ??śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą .

3. NEIGHBORHOOD COORDINATES

STRUCTURE

FOR

MODEL

EULER

We call the Euler's model for conveyor processing a model in which the vertices and variables of the neighborhood structure are associated to the fixed conveyor base. The neighborhood structure corresponding to the Euler model of conveyor processing contains đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + 1 = 1 + đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 + đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;3 nodes đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ0 , đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ1 , â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; (discretization of the conveyor base) with ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą , đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = 0,1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , one output variables đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;(đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = 0,1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; , one external input đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝ with a variable đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;

đ?&#x2018;¤đ?&#x2018;¤ with a variable đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą , đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;, đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + 1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , and đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 control inputs đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 +1 , â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 +đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 with ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + 1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 . The initial node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ0 is connected to the input đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝ that variables đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą , t = 0,1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; . Next, đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + 1 is generates and transmits a time-dependent input state đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (0) = đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;

the number of starting nodes when the strip is not processed. The next đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 nodes, from đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + 1 to đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 , are the band processing nodes. In the final đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;3 nodes, from đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 + 1 to đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 + đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;3 , the strip is not processed, as in the initial nodes. Above the band processing nodes there are đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 controlled inputs đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 +1 , â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 +đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 (which explains the rule of numbering rule for controlled inputs). In the case of cooling the hot rolling strip, the indicated nodes and controlled inputs correspond to the initial section of the discharge roller table, the section with cooling units, the final section of the roller table until the winding unit and the block of cooling units themselves. Below, in Fig. 1, the case is shown when đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;3 = 2. The passage of the strip along the conveyor takes đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; discrete time moments đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = 1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , each time moment corresponds to a shift of the strip by one node to the right. At the initial moment đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = 0, the starting point of the strip located in the node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľ0 , at the moment đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , the ending point of the strip located in the node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; . Through each node, the strip passes for đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; +1 time moments. In the general case, đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; and đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; can be any: đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; â&#x2030;¤ đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; or đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; â&#x2030;Ľ đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; .

*Corresponding author (Kausar Naheed). Email: naheedkosar125@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07T http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.140

Figure 1: Neighborhood structure for Euler model The presence of the zero-node is convenient for synchronization with discrete time: at the zero time moment, the beginning of the strip is in the zero node. The direction of the arrows from the controlled inputs down and to the right is associated with the movement of the strip, that is, the input đ?&#x2018;˘đ?&#x2018;˘ďż˝đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; acts as a result of the movement not on the node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; , but on the node đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;+1 . In addition, the movement of the strip is reflected in the structure of the arcs between the nodes: the action of a certain element of the strip on its neighbors left and right (i.e., the self-action of the strip) in the Euler model corresponds to a loop and incoming arrows from two neighbors to the left. Thus, this non-trivial circumstance is associated with the use of the Euler coordinate system. In the model adapted for the problem of cooling the rolling strip, one time moment corresponds to a shift by a distance Î&#x201D; between the centers of the shower units, the total length of the strip is đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; â&#x2039;&#x2026; Î&#x201D; and, as a rule, đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; â&#x2030;Ť n. ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą , đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą sets the state of the zero node: đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (0) = đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; An external input (random process) đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; 0,1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; . Further, the output of the model at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą is given by the equation đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;), while the vector (profile) of the properties of the strip at the output corresponds to the time moments đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;, đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + 1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , that is, it is a vector of dimension đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; + 1: đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160; = [đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; (đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;+1 (đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;), â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;+đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; (đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;)

(2).

đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą+1 (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;) = đ??šđ??šđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; 1), đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; 2), đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; 1))

(3),

The equation for the state of a node in the general case has the form

but it should be noted that, depending on the relationship between đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; and đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą, there may be no control and some of the states on the right side, and, moreover, the equation itself may be absent. For example, at đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = 0 and đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , the system will consist of only one equation. According to [6], the neighborhood structure allows us to write down a formal system of equations, so called â&#x20AC;&#x153;metasystemâ&#x20AC;?, associated with the structure. We already mentioned the reason why we cannot do this in our case: the neighborhood structure that is fully adequate to the dynamic problem under consideration is not stationary, that is, it depends on time. Such a structure must be described in an extended phase space, see the remarks above in section 2 and also in Section 3.1.5 of the book [6]. An alternative option that we have chosen is that we consider a stationary neighborhood structure containing vertices and arcs for all moments of time, keeping in mind that at each particular moment in time, only part of the vertices and arcs are used to record the system. A full description of the system will be given in future publications.

4. NEIGHBORHOOD COORDINATES

STRUCTURE

FOR

MODEL

LAGRANGE

We call the Lagrange model of conveyor processing a model in which the vertices and

Kausar Naheed, Ijaz Hussain, Khair Uz Zaman & Naimat Ullah Babar

variables are associated with the moving strip. As in the case of the Euler model, the neighborhood structure that is completely adequate to the dynamic problem is not stationary. Same as before, to simplify the construction, we choose an alternative option when all vertices and connections are present simultaneously in the structure (for all time instants), but at the same time, only part of them are used to record the system at any particular moment in time. A detailed description of the system is postponed until the next publication, but some rules for including or excluding vertices and links depending on time will be indicated below. Further we will use the notation đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;3 and đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , introduced in the previous paragraph. The neighborhood structure corresponding to the Lagrange model contains đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; nodes with variables đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = 1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , corresponding to the discretization of the strip (not the conveyor, as in the Euler ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą , đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = 0,1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , one output with the variable model), one external input with the variable đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + 1, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 . đ?&#x2018;&#x160;đ?&#x2018;&#x160; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą , đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;, đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + 1, â&#x20AC;Ś đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; , and đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 control inputs with variables đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą acts on all nodes, not simultaneously but sequentially: at time monent đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą The external input đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6; ďż˝ đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;) can act (or, depending on the control on the node đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą. Each of the control inputs đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;đ?&#x2018;&#x2C6;

program, do not act) on each of the nodes, not simultaneously, but sequentially: at time đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;, â&#x20AC;Ś , đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 + đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; on the node đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;đ?&#x2018;&#x2039; đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą (đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;), đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x2013; = đ?&#x2018;Ąđ?&#x2018;Ą. Figure 2, the case is shown when đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; = 5 and đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 = 1.

Figure 2: Neighborhood structure for Lagrange model. In this case, the reverse numbering of nodes is convenient, from right to left: the beginning of the strip corresponds to the rightmost node. The constructed neighborhood structure does not provide information on the number of nodes of inactive parts of the conveyor đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;1 and đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;2 ; this information will only be contained in the corresponding neighborhood system. Note that the neighborhood structure constructed earlier for the Euler model did not contain information about the strip length đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018; .

5. CONCLUSION

Two neighborhood structures are constructed for the conveyor processing of a moving extended object, corresponding to the use of Euler and Lagrange variables. Neighborhood structures adequate to the task are non-stationary. To simplify the constructions, an alternative option was chosen when the structure is stationary, but the neighborhood system is not uniquely restored by the structure. The connection of the discussed structures with the task of cooling the hot rolling strip to achieve the desired temperature profile of the winding is described. *Corresponding author (Kausar Naheed). Email: naheedkosar125@gmail.com ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 CODEN: ITJEA8 Paper ID:11A07T http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07T.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.140

6. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL Data can be made available by contacting the corresponding authors

7. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The work is supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Lipetsk region within the framework of the scientific project 19-48-480007 p_a.

8. REFERENCES [1] Filipczyk W., Fredrick W., Chang Fu-Hsiang. Advanced control of coiling temperature in China steelâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s hot mill. 12th IFAC Symposium on Automation in Mining, Mineral and Metal Processing, 2007, 40(11), 421-426. [2] Muhin U., Belskij S., Makarov E., Koynov T. Simulation of accelerated strip cooling on the hot rolling mill run-out roller table. Frattura ed Integrita Strutturale, 2016, 10(37), 305-311. [3] Koinov T., Kihara J. Process Optimization for Hot Strip Mill. Trans. of the ISI of Japan, 1986, 895-902 [4] Mishachev N.M., Shmyrin A.M. Neighboring structures and metastructural identification. Tavrichesky Journal of Computer Science and Mathematics, 2017, vol. 37, no. 4, pp. 87-95. [5] Mishachev N.M., Shmyrin A.M. Declusterization of neighborhood structures. Tambov University Reports. Series: Natural and Technical Sciences, 2018, vol. 23, no.124, pp. 648654. [6] Mishachev N.M., Shmyrin A.M. Metastructural identification. Voronesh, Ritm, 2019, 190p. [7] Pervozvanskij A.A. Course of automatic control theory. Moscow, Nauka, 1986, 614 p. Dr. N.M. Mishachev is an Associate Professor at Lipetsk State Technical University, Lipetsk, Russia. His research encompasses Advanced Mathematics and Theory of Optimal Control Systems .

Professor Dr.A.M.Shmyrin is Head of the Department of Higher Mathematics at Lipetsk State Technical University, Lipetsk, Russia. Professor Shmyrin Anatoly Mikhailovich holds a Doctor of Technical Sciences degree. His research encompasses Mathematical Modeling of Complex Distributed Systems; Methods of Multidimensional Optimization and Theory of Optimal Control Systems.

Dr. I.I. Suprunov is an Assistance Professor at Lipetsk State Technical University, Lipetsk, Russia. His research encompasses Theory of Optimal Control Systems and Numerical Methods .

Kausar Naheed, Ijaz Hussain, Khair Uz Zaman & Naimat Ullah Babar

International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies http://TuEngr.com

PAPER ID: 11A07U

A COMPUTER MODEL FOR TRICKLE IRRIGATION SYSTEM DESIGN Walid M. A. KHALIFA 1 2

1,2*

Civil Engineering Department, Hail University, SAUDI ARABIA. Civil Engineering Department, Fayoum University, EGYPT.

ARTICLEINFO

A B S T RA C T

Article history: Received 18 November 2019 Received in revised form 30 January 2020 Accepted 14 February 2020 Available online 24 February 2020

Trickle irrigation systems display the possibility for effective irrigation of rising amount crops and have proven plausible from engineering and agronomic point of view especially in arid and semi-arid zones. A computational model was developed for designing and managing the trickle irrigation systems using the water requirements, irrigation depth, and frequency. The model is composed of several processes as emitter selection according to its discharge and head requirements, determining the allowable variation in subunit pressure head, determining the system configuration and layout (lateral and manifold lengths), positioning of manifolds and designing laterals, designing the manifolds, designing the mainline network and pump unit, and evaluating the trickle system design according to the actual system uniformity. The model was validated by comparing the results with the solved examples. The comparative study revealed that the developed trickle irrigation model achieved good agreements. The developed model is a very helpful tool for water resource engineers for examining and analyzing any design alternatives hydraulically and economically.

Keywords:

Computation; model; drip irrigation; emission uniformity; design parameters; crop water requirements; hydraulic design.

1. INTRODUCTION The water scarcity in arid and semi-arid zones makes the agricultural growth is very limited. Improving the performance of irrigation is essential to survive within the earth’s soil and water resources limitations. The design of a trickle irrigation system is somewhat of an iterative procedure in which a successive adjustment to the design may be made to correct the deficiency that may be shown up in checking the system design (Bazaraa, 1982). Thus, it is important to computerize the appropriate techniques for trickle irrigation systems and their configuration to ensure accurate design. Chatterjee et al. (1995) developed a finite element model (ANALYZER-1) to analyze drip *Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

©2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 Paper ID:11A07U http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07U.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.141

irrigation systems, taking into account minor losses from fittings or barbs. The analysis involved the determination of downstream pressures and discharges at various nodes for a given inlet pressure. A simple model was developed by Al-Amoud and Al-Mesned (2000) to plan the trickle-laterals taking into account losses due to friction and emitter connection. The model estimates the discharges of laterals and emitters and the distribution of pressure head over laterals. The model was used to simulate some design charts within practical ranges of normal design variables, including; the effect of length, diameter, slope, discharge-pressure head relations, and uniformity along the laterals. Zella and Kettab (2002) used numerical methods for the lateral micro-irrigation hydraulic analysis. These methods were the control volumes “CVM” and the Runge-Kutta “RK4”. The CVM method confirms to follow the hydraulic analysis and iterative development; whereas, the RK4 method uses the integration of the differential equations system. Mohammed (2005) used Visual Basic (VB) 6 to simulate the design and manage drip irrigation systems. The program gives the net water depth and the frequency of irrigation, the maximum number of operation units, the unit operation time and the system capacity. The program gives the number of units per area and the minimum system capacity that can irrigate the whole area at a time. The computer program of Odd-Shaped Subunits Designer (OSSD) was developed by Mahrous et al. (2008) to predict the emission uniformity in odd-shaped irrigation subunits. The program is dealing with three modules; emitter characteristics, subunit geometry and subunit design. The predicted values of the emission uniformity in equal area of rectangular, trapezoidal and triangular irrigation subunits were in good agreement with field measurement. Yurdem et al. (2011) use VB6 to estimate the main characteristics and friction losses and to obtain the ideal lateral length in squat time. The software comprised several options for the selection of emitter type based on the pressure. The program of Graphical User Interface in MATLAB was developed by Philipova et al. (2012) to design the surface drip irrigation system. Two main parts of the crop water requirements and hydraulic system calculations has been included in the program. The crop water requirements have been developed in agro-physical soil properties, characteristics of the corresponding crop, and climatic data. The hydraulic calculations include the design of lateral, manifold, mainline and pump. An integrated system for automate the drip fertilizing irrigation in greenhouse controlled by PC was introduced by Guerbaoui et al. (2013) to develop the greenhouse production. Water needs are measured by soil humidity sensor. The fertilizing irrigation graphics was developed using LabVIEW. Agarwal et al. (2015) developed the Drip Irrigation System Design (DISD) software for different locations for horticultural crops. DISD gives ideal sizes of the main line, sub-main laterals, and drippers along with water requirement of different crops and pumps size. A drip irrigation system was designed and optimized by Dhara et al. (2015) to utilize water and energy to meet the plant requirement and also to have maximum yield at minimum consumption of energy and time. Computational analyses have been made for the multi-loop system and land of alluvial agro-climatic zone with sandy loam type soil and areas of 1 ha. Hazen-Williams formula has been used for finding out the pressure loss. Fruit crop like Mango have been considered for cultivation and its analysis. The analyses use the various sizes of key components, [Extruded HDPE/ rigid PVC; main 63 mm / sub-main 50 mm], manifold [Extruded LDPE 40 mm], lateral [LLDPE; 25/20 mm], drippers (short orifice; 9 lph capacity each and 3 emitters per plant), and no. of plants:

Walid M. A. Khalifa

120. All relevant performance parameters have be evaluated through computational simulations and validated with the recognized standards. Reddy et al. (2017) used VB.NET to design the drip irrigation system based on all designing parameters. A sample run was made with assumed data for different crops e.g. apple, banana, coconut, mango, pomegranate, orange. The design for these crops assigns the emitter spacing, flow in the mainline, and the cost per hectare. In addition the software estimates the pump power and total head required to be operated for each area of the crops grown. Deekshithulu et al. (2017) used VB6 for designing efficient drip irrigation facilities. The software provides interaction at all stages of the design process and a solution based on the individual’s requirements. Design of system arrived by this software was tested with manual calculations at developer's level and results were found satisfactory. This study aims to develop a computer model to make a detailed design of a trickle irrigation system (point and line sources). The design process presented herein uses numerical solutions rather than requiring graphical charts. The design procedures cover all the system components (outlets, pipes, fittings, line-source and point-source drip systems and pump unit).

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS The fundamental steps and basic equations that deemed in the programming of the present model were performed. They cover the factors that affect the trickle irrigation design. Design processes reported herein use numerical solutions rather than requiring graphical and interpolation from charts.

2.1 FACTORS AFFECTING PLANNING OF TRICKLE IRRIGATION 2.1.1 NET WATER REQUIREMENTS The utmost water depth over the crop root and under trickle systems (Idn ) could be computed as P

W Idn = WA ∗ Z ∗ Y ∗ �100 �

(1),

where WA is the soil holding water capacity, Z is the depth of crop root, Y is the deficit of allowable moisture, and PW is the percentage area wetted under trickle. The typical ranges of WA of the general grouping of soil textural classes were classified according to soil conservation service (SCS, 1970). Considering the dominant soil and suitable grown crops, WA could be obtained from SCS (1970), Pair et al. (1983), and Doorenbos and Kassam (1979). The grown crop could be estimated as (Y) (Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1977), and Z (Ayers and Westcott, 1985). The appropriate interval of elapsed time between the beginning of two successive irrigation (Ii ) could be estimated as Id

Ii = ET ornET

(2),

where ET is the rate of water use through the summit consumptive period. The potential evapotranspiration could be calculated as in Shawky and Sallam (1996). The crop water requirements were given by Jensen et al. (1990) and Doorenbos and Pruitt (1977). Under trickle irrigation, there are several formulas for determining the average peak daily transpiration rate (ETt ). The simple and accurate one (Sharples et al., 1985) is: *Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

ETt = ET â&#x2C6;&#x2014; [0.1 â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (SHA)0.5 ]

(3),

where SHA is the canopied soil area percentage at midday (80 % orchard and 50 % vegetables). For estimating purposes, the rectangle wetted area (AW ) has been reported by (Keller and Karmeli, 1974 and 1975; and Keller and Bliesner 1990). The long dimension of (AW ) is (w) while the short dimension (Seâ&#x20AC;˛ ) is 0.8 of (w) (see Mirzaei et al., 2009). Then, the value of Pw could be estimated as in (Keller and Karmeli, 1974 and 1975): Pw = ďż˝Np â&#x2C6;&#x2014; Seâ&#x20AC;˛ â&#x2C6;&#x2014; wďż˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2014;

100

ďż˝Sp đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; Srďż˝

Pw = [Np â&#x2C6;&#x2014; Seâ&#x20AC;˛ â&#x2C6;&#x2014; 0.5 (Seâ&#x20AC;˛ + w)] â&#x2C6;&#x2014;

100

ďż˝Sp đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; Srďż˝

for single-laterals

(4),

for dual-laterals

(5),

where, (Np) is the number of emitters per plant, Sp and Sr are the spacing between plants in one row

and between rows of plants (Doorenbos and Kassam, 1979).

2.1.2 GROSS WATER REQUIREMENTS Gross water depth of application per irrigation (Id ) can be estimated as in Equations 6 and 7 using the ratio of peak-use-period transmission (Tr ) as in Keller and Bliesner (1990). The emission uniformity (EU) recommended by the ASAE (1988) is used. T

Id = Idn â&#x2C6;&#x2014; EUr I

dn Id = [(1.0â&#x2C6;&#x2019;LR)(EU)]

where LR â&#x2030;¤ 0.1 where LR > 0.1

where LR is the irrigation leached salts below the root zone and can be estimated as EC

LR = (2â&#x2C6;&#x2014;ECw

max )

(6), (7),

(8),

where ECw is the water electrical conductivity and ECmax is the saturated electrical conductivity that will decrease yield to zero (Ayers and Westcott, 1985).

2.2 TRICKLE SYSTEM DESIGN MODELING 2.2.1 EMITTER SELECTION, DISCHARGE, AND HEAD REQUIREMENTS The selection of an emitter depends on the soil to be wetted, plant requirements for water, emitter discharge, and water quality. The selected emitters require the following steps: 1. Estimate and select the common emitter kind that preferable suits the requirements of the area to be wetted as a point-source or line-source. 2. According to the required systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s discharge, plant spacing and other layout accounts, choose the needful specified emitter. 3. Choose the desired discharge (qa ) and pressure head (Ha ) for the average emitter. The most prevalent kind of point-source emitters is 4-lph, and a few manufactures as well as fabricate 2, 6, 8 lph emitters. As well, line source piping commonly has outlets spaced at 15, 20, 30, 45, and 60 cm intervals and the standard extent of available flow rates for each outlet is ranged 0.5 â&#x2C6;ź2.0 lph. 4. Determine the permissible pressure variation in the subunit (Î&#x201D;Ha ) giving the desired emission uniformity (EU).

Walid M. A. Khalifa

After selecting a trial emitter, determine the required application time of emitter during the peak use period (number of operating hours per day, Ta ) as Ta = G/(Np â&#x2C6;&#x2014; qa )

(9).

Ta must not override 21.6 hrs. /day to permit a few limits of safety for the sudden stop. The gross volume of water per plant per day (G) can be estimated as

G = Sp đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;Sr â&#x2C6;&#x2014;

Idn

(10).

The average emitter pressure head (Ha ) could be determined as Ha = (qa / Cd )1/x

(11),

where Cd and x are the emitter discharge coefficients which could be determined by experimental calibration. Usually, x equals 0.5 for orifice and nozzle emitters and sprayers, 0.7-0.8 for long-path emitters, 0.4 for vortex sprayers, and 0.5-0.7 for tortuous path emitters. 2.2.2 ALLOWABLE VARIATION IN SUBUNIT PRESSURE HEAD The allowable difference in subunit pressure (Î&#x201D;Hs ) that will give a moderately close to the assumed design value of (EU) as in ASAE (1988) could be computed for design purposes as Î&#x201D;Hs = 2.5 â&#x2C6;&#x2014; ďż˝Ha â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Hn ďż˝

(12).

The minimum pressure head (Hn ) which gives (qn ) can be determined from Equation (11).

2.2.3 TRICKLE SYSTEM CONFIGURATIONS AND ALIGNMENTS Figures 1 and 2 show the common system configurations. The farm could be divided into a different number of subunits. Subunit dimension depends on; plant and emitter spacing, average emitter discharge, allowable head variations, the desired number of operating stations, length of plant rows in the field, number of plant rows in the field, and field topography and boundaries. The final subunit layout should lead to a minimum number of subunits and pressure-or flow-control points. The pressure head variations can meet the desired emission uniformity.

Figure 1: Configuration [1] for Trickle Irrigation Systems. *Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

ÂŠ2020 International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies. Volume 11 No.7 ISSN 2228-9860 eISSN 1906-9642 Paper ID:11A07U http://TUENGR.COM/V11/11A07U.pdf DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.141

Figure 2: Configuration [2] for Trickle Irrigation Systems. 2.2.4 TRICKLE LATERAL DESIGN The laterals design depends on the friction head loss as in Watters and Keller (1978) Q1.75

D ≤ 5 inches

(13),

Q1.83

D > 5 inches

(14).

hf = 7.89 ∗ 105 �D4.75 � ∗ L

hf = 9.58 ∗ 105 �D4.83 � ∗ L

The friction head loss in multiple-outlet pipelines may be obtained by using Christiansen’s method (1942), which is widely accepted for practical purposes. The hydraulic design is based on a single or pair of laterals having the average discharge in each subunit. The hydraulic design includes determining best lateral inlet locations, average inlet pressure, and maximum pressure variation along the average lateral based on the numerical method of Keller and Rodrigo (1979). The ground slope must be fairly uniform, so it can be represented by a straight line. The average lateral inlet pressure head that gives the average emitter pressure head can be computed as Benami and Ofen (1983) and Keller and Bliesner (1990) based on the lateral sizes and the elevation difference between inlet and closed ends (uphill and downhill laterals) as in Jaiswal et al. (1996) and Asenso et al. (2014). 2.2.5 TRICKLE MANIFOLD DESIGN As in laterals, the allowable manifold pressure head variation depends on the allowable variation in subunit pressure. The exact manifold lengths are usually functioned of the number of crop rows (laterals) served from a manifold. Manifolds are usually tapered, with up to four different sizes. Manifold design determines the flow rate, best inlet location, pipe sizes, and inlet pressure needed to give the desired average emitter discharge. The best inlet location for tapered manifolds can be estimated as in Keller (1980). The numerical design procedure for selecting diameters and lengths of the manifold uses a hydraulic grade line fitting procedure (Keller and Bliesner, 1990; Keller, 1980; Benami and Ofen, 1983). 2.2.6 MAINLINE NETWORK AND PUMP UNIT DESIGN After designing the laterals and manifolds, the final subunit dimension and system layout could be determined. The total number of subunits in the farm (NST) could be determined as:

Walid M. A. Khalifa

NST = NsuL ∗ NsuB

(15),

where Nsul is the number of subunits on the farm length, NsuB is the number of subunits on the farm width. The procedure for the critical uphill path of the mainline network for drip systems involves the following steps: 1. Compute the total capacity of the system (Q s ) and operating time per season (Ts ) A

Q s = 2.778 ∗ � � ∗ [(Np ∗ qa )/(Sp ∗ Sr )] Ns

Ts ≈ 1.1 ∗ Ta ∗ (Ds /ETt )

2. 3. 4. 5.

(16),

(17),

where A is the field area (ha), Ns is the numbers of operating stations, and Ds is the net seasonal irrigation depth (mm). Determine the length, flow rate, and elevation difference for all network’s reaches. Select the size for each reach. Compute the friction loss (hf ) in each mainline section for each operating station. Determine the pressure head difference (Hfe ) due to friction (hf ) and elevation (ΔHe ) between the control head and each manifold inlet Hfe = hf + ΔHe

(18).

Compute (Hfe + Hm ) for each manifold. Manifold with larges value establishes the required pressure at the control head. This will be referred to as the critical manifold inlet, and the sections of the mainline leading to it as the critical mainline section. The critical section of the mainline cannot be changed without increasing the required inlet pressure. However, the pipe sizes in the other parts of the mainline system can be reduced.

The total dynamic head (TDH) for trickle systems is the sum of dynamic suction lift; supply system losses; control head losses; critical or larger (Hfe + Hm ); various losses in subunits; 10% safety factor of the sum of friction losses; and pressure head allowance for emitter deterioration. 2.2.7 UNIFORMITY EVALUATION AND NET APPLICATION RATE Normally, pressure regulation is provided at each manifold inlet. Therefore, the application uniformity within the subunit having the poorest water distribution is the system uniformity. Once a drip system has been designed, its actual emission uniformity (EUs ) should be estimated by Equation (19) (Keller and Karmeli, 1975). The trial design is acceptable since EUs is within ±2% of the assumed (EU) (Al-Madhhachi et al., 2011) q

EUs = 100�1.0 − �1.27 ∗ v�Np′ �� qn� a

(19),

where Np′ is the minimum number of emitters around each plant, qn is the minimum emission rate

computed from Equation (11), and v is the emitter coefficient of manufacturing variation. Line-source may have only one outlet per plant (Np′ = 1); however because of the close spacing of

outlets, each plant may receive its water from two outlets (Np′ = 2). Soloman (1977, 1979, and 1985)

classified the quality of emitters according to the coefficient (v), that v should be less than 0.07 for point-source emitters and less than 0.2 line-source tubings. The net application rate (AR) is important *Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

for scheduling because it is needed to calculate the number of hours the system must operate to apply a specific water depth. AR for the designed system can be computed as AR = (EUs /100) ∗ [(Np ∗ qa )/(Sp ∗ Sr )]

(20).

2.3 COMPUTER PROGRAM DESCRIPTION

A computer program was developed using FORTRAN to design the trickle irrigation systems and their configurations for each specific site situation. The line-source and point-source systems are the most common types of trickle irrigation methods. The developed model designs the trickle irrigation systems under all possible conditions according to the existing farm parameters. The model consists of the main program and twelve subroutines. The input is provided by user-created ASCII text files. The executable model was produced by FTN77 Version 4.03 compiler (Silverfrost, 2006). The main program is named Trickle Irrigation Systems Design (TISD). The TISD program joins between the different subroutines. Figure 3 shows the flowchart of the main program.

Figure 3: Flowchart of TISD program.

Walid M. A. Khalifa

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1 MODEL VERIFICATION PLANNING TISD is developed to design the trickle irrigation systems and their common configurations. The verification of the developed model, TISD, was made by comparing the results from the model to the solved example calculations reported by Keller and Bliesner (1990); and Benami and Ofen (1983). The model verification processes were made for both point-source and line-source drip systems. The collected data to begin the design computations for the two systems are summarized in Table 1. Figures 4, 5, and 6 show the field shapes and topographies of the study problems. The comparisons between the predicted values of preliminary irrigation design factors and that calculated by Keller and Bliesner (1990) and Benami and Ofen (1983) are listed in Table 2. Table 1: Data of trickle irrigation design for considered problems. Point-Source (Keller and Bliesner, 1990) Measurement unit English units Water and Land Field number Figure 5 (left) 115.7 Field area â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ha (acre) A Water supply â&#x20AC;&#x201C; lps (gpm) 800 Water quality - dS/m (mmhos/cm) ECw 1.4 Soil and Crop Texture of soil Silty loam 1.8 Soil holding water capacity mm/m (in. /ft.) WA 30 Management allowed deficiency % Y Plant spacing â&#x20AC;&#x201C; m đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; m (ft. đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; ft.) Sp đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; Sr 24 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 24 6.0 Plant root depth â&#x20AC;&#x201C; m (ft.) Z 66 Percentage shaded area % SHA 0.28 Average rate of water use â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mm/day (in./day) ET 36.7 Seasonal water requirements â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mm (in.) ETs 0.10 Leaching requirement ratio LR Emitter Type Vortex Emitter outlets 1 15.0 Pressure head â&#x20AC;&#x201C; kPa [m] (psi [ft.]) Ha 1.0 Rated discharge @ Ha â&#x20AC;&#x201C; L/hr. (gph) qa 0.42 Discharge exponent x 0.07 Coefficient of variability v 0.32 Discharge coefficient Cd Connection loss equivalent â&#x20AC;&#x201C; m (ft.) 0.4 Study plan

Point-Source (Benami and Ofen, 1983) SI units

Line-Source (Keller and Bliesner, 1990) English units

Figure 5 (right) 64.75 95 0.0

Figure 4 4.7 200 1.0

Clay loam 108 30 6.1 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 6.1 1.5 72 7.6 812.0 0.0

Clay loam 2.11 30 3 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 5 2.5 50 0.28 25.0 0.04

Multi-exit 6 10.0 m 6.0 0.68 0.033 1.6

Mana-wall tubing 1 4.0 0.39 0.48 0.12 0.20 NA

Figure 4: Tomato Field with Line-Source Drip Irrigation System [Keller and Bliesner, 1990]. *Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

[Keller and Bliesner, 1990]

[Benami and Ofen, 1983]

Figure 5: Orchard Field for Point-Source Drip Irrigation System. Table 2: Comparison between model and reported irrigation design factors of drip systems. Study plan Field number Measurement unit Emission point layout Emitter spacing - m đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; m (ft. đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; ft.) Sp đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; Sr Emission point per plant Np Percentage of wetted area % Pw Maximum net depth â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mm (in.) Idn Ave. peak transpiration â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mm/day (in./day) ETt Maximum irrigation interval â&#x20AC;&#x201C; days Ii Irrigation Frequency â&#x20AC;&#x201C; days Ii Net depth per irrigation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mm (in.) Assumed uniformity % EU Gross depth per irrigation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mm (in.) Id Gross water per plant L/day (gal/day) G Application time â&#x20AC;&#x201C; hr. Ta Application time â&#x20AC;&#x201C; hr. Ta Irrigation interval â&#x20AC;&#x201C; days Ii Gross depth per irrigation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mm (in.) Id Average emitter discharge - lph (gph) qa Average emitter head â&#x20AC;&#x201C; m (ft.) Ha Allowable head variation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; m (ft.) â&#x2C6;&#x2020;Hs Emitter spacing - m đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; m (ft. đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; ft.) Se đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; Sr Percentage of wetted area % Pw Number of stations Ns System capacity â&#x20AC;&#x201C; lps (gpm) Qs Seasonal efficiency % EUs Seasonal operation time â&#x20AC;&#x201C; hr. Ot Total dynamic head â&#x20AC;&#x201C; m (ft.) TDH Actual uniformity % EU

Point-Source K.&B. Model Figure 5 (left) English units Trial Design Straight line 6 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 24 6 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 24 4 4 35 35.42 1.15 1.137 0.23 0.228 5 5 1 1 0.23 0.228 90 90 0.25 0.253 93.3 90.251 23.3 21.0 Final Design 21.0 21.0 1 1 0.26 0.253 1.11 1.081 44.5 41.73 16.0 13.864 6 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 24 6 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 24 35 35.42 1 1 648 641.85 90 91 2680 2656.5 115 119.46 91.5 91

Point-Source B.&O. Model Figure 5 (right) SI units Multi-exit 1.5 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 6.1 6 6 42 39.3 20.4 19.35 6.5 6.45 3 3 1 1 6.5 6.45 92 90 23.6 21.5 272.8 292.8 25.75 8.0

1.5 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 6.1

8.0 1 23.6 5.83 10.0 1.5 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 6.1 42.38 3 59.0 88 2548 30.4 90

8.0 1 21.5 6.1 10.26 2.39 1.5 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 6.1 39.3 3 58.95 90 2772 34.261 90

Line-Source K.&B. Model Figure 4 English units Straight line 1.51 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 5 2 2 100 100 1.6 1.58 0.20 0.198 8 8 1 1 0.20 0.198 80 80 0.25 0.2475 2.34 2.313 3.00 2.967

1.5 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 5

3.0 1 0.25 0.39 9.2 5.8 1.5 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 5 100 1 177 80 215 82.0 81

2.967 1 0.2475 0.391 9.252 5.53 1.51 đ?&#x2014;&#x2018;đ?&#x2014;&#x2018; 5 100 1 177.38 87 208.89 81.5 86

3.2 MODEL VERIFICATION FOR POINT-SOURCE DRIP SYSTEM TISD designs the orchard field shown in Figure 5 using the site data (Table 1). According to Table 2, the comparison between the model and Keller and Bliesner designs for lateral and manifold

Walid M. A. Khalifa

lines are shown in Tables 3 and 4, respectively. The farm alignment and main pipe network are shown in Figure 6a&b. In this regard, it could be noted that the differences between the results of the trial and final designs are very negligible (Table 2). The lateral design (Table 3) shows insignificant differences between the results. The model uses the German specifications (DIN, 13.6 mm) in sizing lateral line, but Keller and Bliesner use the American specifications (ASTM, 0.58 inch). The model selects a small inside diameter (due to exact discharge), which increases the friction loss and changes the pressuresâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; values within the lateral and consequently changes the lateral inlet position on the manifold. The manifold design (Table 4) shows small differences in the uphill and downhill manifold lengths (12.0 ft.). The model always assumes that for any two adjacent subunits, there is a road in between. So, the model considers the farm has four roads of 24.0 ft. width (Figure 6a), but Keller and Bliesner consider only two roads of 24.0 ft. width (Figure 6b). The differences in uphill and downhill manifold lengths and lateral discharge and its inlet pressure lead to the differences in the manifold discharge, friction losses, and inlet pressure. There is also is a small difference in the sizes of the manifold reaches (lower part of the table) referring to the system alignment and model accuracy. In addition, there is a difference between the model and Keller and Bliesner for main pipe network design because the farm alignments and lateral inlet positions are not identical for both.

Figure 6a: Model design for farm layout and main pipe network (laterals are 16 mm PE, manifolds are SDR 26 PVC, and main lines are SDR 41 PVC).

Figure 6b: Keller and Bliesner design for farm layout and main pipe network (laterals are 0.58-inch PE, manifolds are SDR 26 PVC, and main lines are SDR 41 PVC).

Figure 6: Comparison between model and Keller and Bliesner (1990) designs for farm layout and main pipe network of point-source drip system.

Table 3: Comparison between model and Keller and Bliesner (1990) for lateral line design of point-source drip system.

Model K.&B.

Lateral length (ft.) 648 648

Lateral ID (mm) 13.6 14.73

Ql (gmp) 1.94 2.0

Slope (%) 0.50 0.5

Head loss (ft.) 3.67 2.20

Uphill length (ft.) 272 240

Downhill length (ft.) 376 408

Inlet press. (ft.) 44.6 46.4

Min. press. (ft.) 40.94 44.0

Exit press. (ft.) 40.94 44.0

Press. variation (ft.) 3.64 2.40

*Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

No. of emitters 54 54

Table 4: Comparison between model and Keller and Bliesner (1990) for manifold design of point-source drip system. Pair of Manifold Design Manifold Length Slope Inlet Head No. of Qm portion (ft.) (%) press. (ft.) loss (ft.) laterals (gmp) Uphill 636.0 52.47 0.0 48.03 6.92 27 Model Downhill 636.0 52.47 0.0 48.03 6.92 27 Uphill 648.0 54.06 0.0 50.2 7.5 27 K.&B. Downhill 648.0 54.06 0.0 50.2 7.5 27 Uphill and Downhill Manifold Design Manifold reaches Manifold Reach (1) Reach (2) Reach (3) Reach (4) Length Length Size Length Size Length Size Length Size (ft.) (ft.) (in.) (ft.) (in.) (ft.) (in.) (ft.) (in.) Model 636.0 108.0 2.50 288.0 2.00 120.0 1.50 120.0 1.25 K.&B. 648.0 96.0 2.50 312.0 2.00 120.0 1.50 120.0 1.25

Further, Table 2 shows the comparisons between the predicted values of preliminary irrigation design factors and that calculated by Benami and Ofen (1983) for Figure 5-right. The laterals and manifolds design can be shown in Tables 5 and 6. The farm alignment and main pipe are shown in Figure 7a&b. In this regard, it could be noted that the differences between the trial and final designs of preliminary irrigation design factors (Table 2) are very small due to the accuracy of the developed model. For the lateral line design (Table 5); there are insignificant differences between the results whereas the lateral length that predicted by the model was 132.0 m in length and less than that determined by Benami and Ofen (134.0 m). The model uses the German specifications (DIN, 15.6 mm) in sizing lateral line, but Benami and Ofen use the American specifications (ASTM, 0.58 inch). For the manifold line design (Table 6); there are big differences in the uphill and downhill manifold lengths (upper part of the table). These differences refer to the farm alignment. Benami and Ofen ignore the effect of land slopes in the manifold direction, and consequently, the best manifold position with the main pipe are neglected (i.e., the uphill and downhill manifold lengths are equals). There is a big difference in the sizes of the manifold reaches (lower part of Table 6). These differences are because Benami and Ofen use one size manifold leading the model design for manifold is more accurate and economic. Furthermore, there are some differences in the farm alignments and main pipe network design (Figure 7a&b). These differences refer to the effect of land slopes that neglected by Benami and Ofen in the manifold inlet position. Further, these differences may refer to the model accuracy through the design, where Benami and Ofen do not use the economic-pipe-size-method in the design of the main pipe network reaches. Therefore, the developed model results for the farm alignment and the main pipe network design are more accurate and economic. Table 5: Comparison between model and Benami and Ofen (1983) for lateral line design of point-source drip system.

Model B.&O.

Lateral length (m) 132.0 134.0

Lateral ID (mm) 15.6 14.7

Walid M. A. Khalifa

Ql (L/s)

0.22 0.224

Slope (%) 0.0 0.0

Head loss (m) 1.05 1.30

Uphill length (m) 66.0 67.0

Downhill length (m) 66.0 67.0

Inlet press. (m) 11.05 13.20

Min. press. (m) 9.99 NA

Exit press. (m) 9.99 NA

Press. variation (m) 1.05 1.30

No. of emitters 65 66

Figure 7a: Model design for farm layout and main pipe network (laterals are 18 mm PE, manifolds are SDR 26 PVC, and main lines are SDR 41 PVC).

Figure 7b: Benami and Ofen design for farm layout and main pipe network (laterals are 0.58-inch PE, manifolds are IPS, and main lines are SDR 41 PVC Class 100 psi).

Figure 7: Comparison between model and Benami and Ofen (1983) designs for system layout and main pipe network of point-source drip system.

Table 6: Comparison between model and Benami and Ofen (1983) for the manifold design of point-source drip system. Pair of Manifold Design Manifold Length Qm Slope Inlet Head No. of portion (m) (%) pressure (m) loss (m) laterals (L/s) Uphill 125.05 4.62 0.25 11.63 0.86 21 Model Downhill 265.35 9.69 -0.25 11.38 1.33 44 Uphill 201.17 7.40 0.25 14.4 1.20 33 Ben. & Ofen Downhill 201.17 7.40 -0.25 14.4 1.20 33 Uphill and Downhill Manifold Design Manifold reaches Reach (1) Reach (2) Reach (3) Reach (4) Manifold portion Length Size Length Size Length Size Length Size (m) (in.) (m) (in.) (m) (in.) (m) (in.) Uphill 45.75 3.0 18.30 2.5 36.60 2.0 24.40 1.50 Model Downhill 131.15 4.0 85.40 3.0 6.1 2.5 42.70 2.0 Uphill 201.17 3.0 Uphill manifold was designed as one size Ben. & Ofen Downhill 201.17 3.0 Downhill manifold was designed as one size

3.3 MODEL VERIFICATION FOR LINE-SOURCE DRIP SYSTEM TISD designs the Tomato field shown in Figure 4 by using the site data listed in Table 1. The comparisons between the predicted values of preliminary irrigation design factors and calculated by Keller and Bliesner (1990) are listed in Table 2. These comparisons for lateral and manifold lines are shown in Tables 7 and 8. The farm alignment is shown in Figure 8. Regarding, it could be noted that for the trial and final designs of preliminary irrigation design factors (Table 2); the differences between the results are very negligible. These differences refer basically to the developed model accuracy through the design calculations. Also, there are insignificant differences between the results of the lateral line design (Table 7). Therefore, the model uses the German specifications (DIN, 15.6 mm) in sizing lateral line, but Keller and Bliesner use the American specifications (ASTM, 0.625 inch). In the manifold line design (Table 8); there are small differences in the manifold length. The *Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

model assumes that; the subunit has a load of 2.5 ft., but Keller and Bliesner consider no roads are required. The difference between the model and Keller and Bliesner for manifold length and the lateral inlet pressure lead to the differences in the manifold discharges, friction losses, and inlet pressures. There is also a difference in the sizes of the manifold reaches (lower part of the table). These differences refer basically to the used design method and the model accuracy where Keller and Bliesner use the graphical method and the economic selection chart in their design steps.

Figure 8: Model and Keller and Bliesner design for farm layout with Line-Source Drip System (Lateral lines are Single Chamber 0.625-inch (15.6 mm for model) ID-PE Tubing which discharges 26 gph/100 ft.; the manifold is buried PVC pipe). Table 7: Comparison between model and Keller and Bliesner design for Lateral Line of Line-Source Drip System (Figure 4)

Model K.&B.

Lateral length (ft.) 318.0 318.0

Lateral ID (mm) 15.6 15.875

Ql (gmp) 1.38 1.38

Slope (%) 0.0 0.0

Head loss (ft.) 2.69 2.50

Uphill length (ft.) 0 0

Downhill length (ft.) 318.0 318.0

Inlet press. (ft.) 11.29 11.10

Min. press. (ft.) 8.56 9.20

Exit press. (ft.) 8.56 9.20

Press. variation (ft.) 2.69 2.50

No. of emitters 212 212

Table 8: Comparison between model and Keller and Bliesner design for Manifold of Line-Source Drip System (Figure 4) Single of Manifold Design Length Slope Inlet Head No. of Qm (ft.) (gmp) (%) pressure (ft.) loss (ft.) laterals 637.5 176.4 -2.0 10.7 11.614 128 640.0 177.0 -2.0 13.0 NA 128 Downhill Manifold Design Manifold reaches Reach (1) Reach (2) Reach (3) Reach (4) Length Size Length Size Length Size Length Size (ft.) (in.) (ft.) (in.) (ft.) (in.) (ft.) (in.) 12.5 4 375.0 3 55.0 2.5 195.0 2 296.0 3 141.0 2.5 87.0 2 116.0 1.5

Manifold portion Downhill Downhill

Model K.&B.

Manifold Length (ft.) Model K.&B.

637.5 640.0

4. CONCLUSION Trickle irrigation can water straightway to the crop root zone. So, it is a common irrigation method in arid and semi-arid areas. In this study, a computer program (TISD) was developed to design the trickle irrigation systems and their configurations for each specific site situation. The line-source and point-source systems are the most common types of trickle irrigation methods. The developed model designs the trickle irrigation systems under all possible conditions according to the existing parameters of the farm. The model consists of the main program and twelve subroutines. It is written using FORTRAN language as it is a practical language, with input provided by user-created

Walid M. A. Khalifa

ASCII text files. The executable model was produced by the FTN77 Version 4.03 compiler. The model processes the design of drip system through the following steps: 1. Selecting the emitter spacing, the duration of application, the number of stations, and the average emitter discharge and operating pressure head; 2. Determining the allowable variation in the pressure head of subunit (Î&#x201D;Hs ) that will produce the desired emission uniformity (EU); 3. Determining the system configuration and layout (lateral and manifold lengths); 4. Positioning of manifolds and designing laterals; 5. Designing the manifold and selecting a size for manifolds and mainlines; 6. Computing system capacity and total dynamic operating head requirements; 7. Evaluating the system design according to the actual system uniformity; 8. Scheduling the system operation by calculating the net application rate. The model was verified using two literature data information. The verification results are in good agreement with the literature. The model can be extended for more economic interest design of drip irrigation using the benefit and cost analysis. The program can be compiled to work in Windows. The study can also be modified for sprinkler irrigation systems.

5. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIAL All relevant data are already included in this article.

6. REFERENCES Agarwal, N., Tripathi, M. P., Tiwari, P. (2015). Development of user Friendly Software for Drip Irrigation System Design. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology. 3(20). Al-Amoud, A. I., Al-Mesned, A. S. (2000). A Computer Program for Trickle Irrigation Lateral Design Considering Emitter Losses. American Society of Agricultural Engineers. St. Joseph, ASAE Paper No. 002160, 17 Ref. Al-Madhhachi, A. T., Hamad, S. N., Heeren, D. M. (2011). A New Technique to Improve the Emission Uniformity for Trickle Irrigation Systems. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress. ASAE (American Society of Agricultural Engineers). (1988). Design and Installation of Microirrigation Systems. ASAE Engineering Practice Standard: ASAE EP 405. Asenso, E., LI, J., Chen, H., Ofori, E., Issaka, F., Mensah-Brako, B. (2014). Head and lateral length on water distribution uniformity of a PVC drip irrigation system. African Journal of Agricultural Research. 9(30), 2298-2305. Ayers, R. S., Westcott D. W. (1985). Water Quality for Agricultures. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Irrigation and Drainage Paper 29 Rev. 1, Rome, Italy. Bazaraa, A. S. (1982). Sprinkler and Trickle Irrigation. Handbook of Irrigation. Cairo, Egypt. Benami, A., Ofen, A. (1983). Irrigation Engineering. Haifa, Israel: Irrigation Engineering Scientific Publications (IESP). Chatterjee, C., Tiwari, K., Lamm, F. (1995). Finite Element Analysis of Drip Irrigation System. Microirrigation for a Changing World: Conserving Resources Preserving the Environment. Proceedings of the Fifth International Microirrigation Congress, Orlando, Florida, USA, April 2-6, 91-96. American Society of Agricultural Engineers (ASAE), St. Joseph, USA. Christiansen, J. E. (1942). Irrigation by Sprinkling. California Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin 670, 124. University of California, Berkeley. *Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

Deekshithulu, N.V. G., Babu, G. R., Kumar, H.V. H., Babu, R. G. (2017). Design of Computer Aided Drip Irrigation System Software. International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences. 6(12), 108-118. Dhara, P. K., Pal, A. K., Paramanik, S. (2015). A Computational Design of Drip Irrigation System through Optimizations for Savings of Water and Energy for Cultivation of Commercial Horticultural Crops in Indian Agro-Climatic Environment. Journal of Agroecology and Natural Resource Management. 2(5), 328-331. Doorenbos, J., Kassam, A. H. (1979). Yield response to water. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Irrigation and Drainage Paper 33. Rome, Italy. Doorenbos, J., Pruitt, W. (1977). Crop Water Requirements. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24. Rome, Italy. Guerbaoui, M., Elafou, Y., Ed-dahhak, A., Lachhab, A., Bouchikhi, B. (2013). PC-Based Automated Drip Irrigation System. International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology. 5(01), 221-225. Jaiswal, A., Sonune, A., Bhuyar, R., Hiwase, S. (1996). Optimal Selection of Lateral Length for Drip Irrigation System. Journal of Maharashtra Agricultural Universities. 21(1), 109-111. Jensen, M.E., Burman, R. D., Allen, R. G. (1990). Evaporation and Irrigation Water Requirements. Committee on Irrigation Water Requirements. New York: American Society of Civil Engineers. ASCE Manual No. 70. Keller, J. (1980). Trickle Irrigation Manifold Design. ASCE Transactions Technical Paper No. 80-2058. Keller, J. (1990). Modern Irrigation in Developing Countries. Proceedings of the 14th International Congress on Irrigation and Drainage. Rio de Janeiro ICID, Brazil. Keller, J., Bliesner, R. D. (1990). Sprinkle and Trickle Irrigation. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Book Co. Keller, J., Karmeli, D. (1974). Trickle Irrigation Design Parameters. ASAE Transactions. 17(4), 678-684. Keller, J., Karmeli, D. (1975). Trickle Irrigation Design. Glendora, California: Rain Bird Sprinkler Manufacturing Crop. Keller, J., Rodrigo, J. (1979). Trickle Irrigation Lateral Design. ASAE Transactions Technical Paper No. 792570. Mahrous, A., Hanafy, M., Bakeer, G. A., Bazaraa, A. S. (2008). Computer Program for Predicting Emission Uniformity of Odd-Shaped Subunits in Drip Irrigation System. Misr Journal of Agricultural Engineering, 25(4), 1240-1255. Mirzaei, F., Hatami, M., Mousazadeh, F. (2009). A Simple Model to Estimate Wetted Soil Volume from the Trickle by Use of the Dimensional Analysis Technique. Advances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 345-352. Mohammed, M. M. H. (2005). Computer Model for Designing and Managing Drip Irrigation Systems. A Thesis submitted to the University of Khartoum in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Agricultural Engineering. Pair, C. H., Hing, W. H., Frost, K. R., Sneed, R. E., Schilty, T. J. (1983). Irrigation, 5th edition. Arlington, Virginia: The Irrigation Association. Philipova, N., Nicheva, O., Kazandjiev, V., Lubomirova, M. C. (2012). A Computer Program for Drip Irrigation System Design for Small Plots. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics. 42(4), 3-18. Reddy, K. H. N., Kumar, K. A., Ramana, M. V. (2017). Design and Development of Drip Irrigation System Software in Visual Basic. International Journal of Agricultural Science and Research. 7(4), 339-346. SCS (Soil Conservation Service). (1970). Irrigation Water Requirements. USDA-SCS Technical Release 21.

Walid M. A. Khalifa

Sharples, R. A., Rolston, D. E., Bigger, J. W., Nightingale, H. I. (1985). Evaporation and Soil Water Balance of Young Trickle-Irrigated Almond Tree. In Drip/Trickle Irrigation in Action. Proceedings of Third International Drip/Trickle Irrigation Congress, Fresno, California, Nov. 18-21, vol. II, 792-797. St. Joseph. Michigan: American Society of Agricultural Engineers. Shawky, M., Sallam, M. (1996). Potential Evapotranspiration Calculations under Egyptian Conditions. Evapotranspiration and Irrigation Scheduling. Proceedings of the International Conference, San Antonio, Texas, USA, Nov. 3-6. 407-411, American Society of Agricultural Engineers (ASAE). St. Joseph, USA. Silverfrost. (2006). http://www.silverfrost.com. Soloman, K. (1977). Performance Characteristics of Different Emitter Types. Proceedings 7th International Agricultural Plastics Congress. San Diego, California. 97-107. Soloman, K. (1979). Manufacturing Variation of Trickle Emitters. ASAE Transactions. 22(5), 1034-1038, 1043. Soloman, K. H. (1985). Global Uniformity of Trickle Irrigation Systems. ASAE Transactions. 28(4), 1151-1158. Watters, G. Z., Keller, J. (1978). Trickle Irrigation Tubing Hydraulics. ASAE Transactions Paper No. 78-2015. Yurdem, H., Demir, V., Degirmencioglu, A. (2011). Development of a software to determine the emitter characteristics and the optimum length of new designed drip irrigation laterals. Mathematical and Computational Applications. 16(3), 728-737. Zella, L., Kettab, A. (2002). Numerical Methods of Microirrigation Lateral Design. Biotechnology Agronomy Society Environment. 6(4), 231–235. Dr. Walid M. A. KHALIFA received his BSc in Civil Engineering from Cairo University of Egypt, and a PhD in Water Resources and Environmental Hydrology from Cairo University. He is an Assistant Professor at Hail University, Saudi Arabia, and Fayoum University, Egypt. His research interests include Predictive Water Quality and Hydrodynamics in Surface Water Bodies and also in Reinforced Concrete Water Structures.

*Corresponding author (Walid M. A. Khalifa). Tel: +966-504322771 Email: w.khalifa@uoh.edu.sa; wmk01@fayoum.edu.eg

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