OPINION
How to better predict the
year ahead
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Rather than asking what will change in 10 years, ask what will be the same.
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68 INCLEAN January / February 2024
s we embark on a new year, it’s customary to reflect on the past year and contemplate the possibilities that lie ahead. Many of us find ourselves making predictions for the upcoming year, even formulating strategies based on these predictions. Yet, if you cast your mind back to the start of 2023 and the predictions made at that time, you may find that your predictions were wrong. For example, you may not have anticipated interest rates to go up as quickly as they have, you probably did not predict war in Europe, and you may not have predicted may other economic events that occurred throughout the year. If planning for the future is such a normal part of our lives, why are we so bad at predicting it? The problem could lay in the fact that we focus too much on what is going to change, instead of what is going to stay the same. In Morgan Housel’s book, Same As Ever, he recounts a story where in 2009 he asked the famous investor, Warren Buffet, “how on earth the economy will recover?” following the GFC. Warren replied with a question; “Do you know what the best-selling candy bar was in 1962? …It was Snickers” He then continued, “Do you know what the best-selling candy bar was in 2008? …Snickers” The point being that some things don’t change or are unlikely to change. People are likely going to value the same things. Human nature is unlikely to change. So, your energy may be better placed focussing on what is not going to change instead of predicting where the economy will go.
So, with that in mind, what is unlikely to change in the year ahead. • Clean surfaces will protect against infection and disease • People and culture will be important to the cleaning industry • Those areas that are clean will attract people and therefore be valuable to businesses and government • Businesses need positive cashflow • Data and its security will be important • Time will continue to be a valuable resource • Tax intricacies will endure Once you take note of what is unlikely to change, then you can develop a strategy for the year ahead around those areas. For example, time will be important this year. That will not change. What is your strategy around maximising your time? How are you planning to better maximise your staff’s time? This is not to say that looking to anticipate market trends and economic conditions is not important but focussing on what you can control is likely to produce good results no matter the economic or political climate. Jeff Bezos famously told The Harvard Business Review “Rather than asking what will change in 10 years, ask what will be the same”. Ask yourself what things will never change? Focus your time there. If you want to get better at predicting the future, then predict the things that are true today and will continue to be true in the future. ■ Andrew Ash is Director, Accounting and Tax at HLB Mann Judd.