A New Coast - Annotated Table of Contents

A New Coast Annotated Table of Contents Introduction Major hurricanes have caused devastation along the American coast. In 2017, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria caused death and extensive damage in Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico.

And in 2018, Hurricane Michael pounded the Florida Panhandle, and Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina.

New science indicates that, as the climate warms, coastal storms are likely to be more intense and damaging than in past years. In addition, recent research indicates that climate change is driving an acceleration in the rise of sea levels globally and especially along the American coast.

More severe storms and rising seas will deliver a one-two punch to the coast, putting millions of people and hundreds of communities at risk of temporary flooding and permanent inundation.

A New Coast make the case that the United States needs to devise and implement a national program to better respond to the challenges of more severe coastal storms and rising seas along the American coast. Why is a national program needed?

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The new science defining the risks is strong (see Part 1).

The scale and costs of the problem—measured in terms of impacts on communities, critical infrastructure, ecosystems, and private assets—are significant and occur around the entire coast (see Part 2).

The existing programs for flood insurance, disaster assistance, and coastal management are struggling to keep up with the costs of major coastal storms and are not set up to deal with the permanent inundation that comes with rising seas (see Part 3).

States, local governments, and businesses are making some headway in responding to these challenges, but the legal, social, and economic issues they face are new and complex, and they need the support and financial assistance that a national program can provide (see Part 4).

Part 5 outlines key elements of a new national program to address these risks, along with steps to support a campaign to put the issue on the national agenda.

Part I – A Warming Climate Drives Coastal Storms and Rising Seas In Brief: The science behind projections of more severe coastal storms and rising seas is sound, and the uncertainty of past years is now greatly reduced. Separate from well-known changes like tides or coastal erosion, a warming climate is working by somewhat different processes to make coastal storms more intense and to raise sea level, delivering a one-two punch to the coast.

Coastal storms will become more damaging in terms of storm surge and rainfall. Sea level along the American coast is almost sure to rise several feet, and by 2100 and beyond, it may well rise much higher. The bottom line is that sound science is pointing to a real problem for the coast.

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Coastal Storms, Coastal Nightmare Coastal storms are a major risk to life and property, and a warming climate will result in more extensive coastal flooding due to increased rainfall and higher storm surges, reaping a growing toll in lives and destruction. Disaster planning for coastal areas needs to account for both more flooding from severe coastal storms and permanent inundation as a result of rising sea levels.

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Sea Level Rise Projections: Trending Upward Scientific consensus about the extent of future global sea level rise is steadily trending upward. The commonly reported increases in the height of sea level (e.g., three feet by the year 2100) are not the total increase expected, but simply the first increment of a larger rise that will occur in the decades and centuries after 2100. Relative sea level rise along most of the American coast will be greater than global averages. The extent of the rise in sea levels is linked to the rate and extent of future warming of the planet.

International cooperation has resulted in agreement on a cap in warming of 2°C, but commitments by countries around the world to staying within this cap are lagging, and the window for getting back on track is closing within the next decade.

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Measuring a Shifting Coast Accounting for the present location of the coast, tides, and coastal erosion is well understood. There is even a process in place to map future incremental shifts in the coast in response to storms and rising seas. Although the country’s coastal mapping capacity is impressive, there is room for improvement.

Part II – Storms and Rising Seas Disrupt the American Coast In Brief: More severe storms and rising seas will bring economic, environmental, and social disruption to the coast on an unprecedented scale. Millions of people and hundreds of coastal communities face risks of more extensive storm flooding followed by permanent inundation, with potential losses of coastal property running into trillions of dollars. Critical public infrastructure facilities are at risk, along with important ecosystems and private sector assets supporting tourism, fishing, and coastal energy. There is evidence that better preparing for these impacts could significantly reduce costs and losses. Yet, in each of these areas, most governments are either not yet engaged or are still assessing risks rather than implementing response actions.

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Scale and Cost of the Coming Coastal Inundation

Significant land area and communities that are home to millions of Americans will be inundated by rising seas. This inundation will be gradual, appearing first as more frequent flooding at high tide in the most vulnerable areas. The projected costs of loss of existing coastal property to damages of more severe storms and rising seas by the end of the century is several trillion dollars. If rapid population growth right along the coast continues, these 2

costs will be much higher. Analysis of these impacts suggests that prompt and thoughtful preparation can dramatically reduce costs, and that investments in imagining future communities that are well adapted to the new coast would be money well spent.

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Coastal Storm and Sea Level Rise Risks to Critical Infrastructure

Storm and sea level rise risks to critical coastal infrastructure, such as transportation, water, and military facilities, are well documented. But there is little evidence of response actions or policies to reduce risks to existing facilities or avoid risks as new facilities are developed.

Information on risks to other infrastructure types (e.g., telecommunications, public safety, energy grids) is sketchy. Perhaps most important, work to prepare one type of critical coastal infrastructure for these risks needs to be done in coordination with other infrastructure sectors and the communities and businesses that are served. This coordinated planning for secure coastal infrastructure has not yet emerged but will be essential to successful preparation for more severe storms and rising seas.

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Coastal Ecosystems Facing Inundation: Wetlands and Beaches

Coastal beaches and wetlands will be lost to coastal storms and rising seas. Some of these ecosystems may be able to transition to upland areas if geography is favorable, if seas do not rise too quickly, and if the needs of communities and infrastructure do not take priority in optimal upland areas. Unfortunately, most coastal ecosystems do not have a federal government agency charged with helping them survive storms and rising seas, and state and local government protection varies from place to place. Taken together, these circumstances point to an uncertain future for coastal ecosystems.

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Private Sector Losses as Seas Rise: Tourism, Fishing, and Energy

The fortunes of coastal tourism and fishing sectors are tied to the uncertain future health of coastal ecosystems. Both tourism and fishing are critical to coastal economies and to the identity of coastal communities. The highly decentralized structure of both sectors makes the long-range planning needed to respond to more severe storms and rising seas a challenge.

Energy sector assets are also at risk, but these assets are less connected to the health of coastal ecosystems and the industry is highly centralized and better able to develop effective long-range plans. Energy, tourism, and fishing all need to be well represented in efforts to prepare for more severe storms and rising seas.

Part III – A Nation Unprepared for Coastal Storms and Rising Seas In Brief: A diverse array of federal programs and policies related to flooding, disaster assistance, coastal management, and climate adaptation play some part in responding to risks posed by coastal storms and rising seas. Although each individual program has strengths, each struggles with flaws or shortcomings. And the significant new programs, authorities, and investments needed to prepare for these risks (see Part 5) would be hard to fit into any of the existing frameworks. Because these existing programs are not a good fit for the job, the country needs a new national program to prepare for more severe storms and rising seas.

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The Politics of Coastal Storms and Rising Seas

The political battlefield on which efforts to respond to coastal storms and rising seas will need to succeed is surprisingly promising. A solid majority of the public supports preparation for climate change, including coastal storms and rising seas. The political controversy over storms and sea level rise in key states like Florida and North Carolina has not disappeared but is abating while some states are making solid progress with both studies of the problem and actual response actions. The outlook for attention to the topic in Congress has dramatically improved with the 2018 elections. The darkest cloud on this scene is the animosity of the Trump administration toward efforts to adapt to a changing climate.

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National Flood Insurance Program: Coastal Misdirection

For many years, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) provided affordable, reliable flood insurance for individuals at little cost to the government while prompting communities to reduce flood risk by implementing local mitigation measures. Sadly, major hurricanes have increased coastal property losses, making the program financially unsustainable. And the emergence of the risk of permanent inundation of insured properties due to rising seas further weakens the financial structure of the program while increasing the moral hazard associated with insuring these homes, all while facilitating new development in these risky areas. The challenge going forward is finding a way to gradually disengage from insuring property at risk of permanent inundation by rising seas in a gradual transition that recognizes the often precarious financial situation of many homeowners and the consequences for coastal communities.

10 Coastal Disaster Planning: Preparing for the Wrong Hazards The country is compassionate and magnanimous in response to disasters large or small, but comparatively stingy when it comes to investing in actions to avoid damages from these events. Federal appropriations on the huge scale of those in response to recent disasters, especially the coastal storms of 2017, will be harder to justify as the special appropriations needed to respond to future disasters grow larger and more frequent. And damages from future storms will be more extensive as sea level rises and may begin to seem inevitable. The best way to sustain generous public support for disaster response is to keep costs from exploding and to more clearly discourage people from taking unwise risks. That will require a new commitment to invest in more up-front disaster mitigation focused on avoiding the most serious future risks.

11 Coastal Management Programs: Overcommitted and Underfunded The country has a significant investment in ocean policy, management of the coastal zone, and protection of critical estuaries. Although these programs were conceived before climate change emerged as a major concern, they have adapted to the new realities that climate change brings to the coast to varying degrees and might be further adapted to more forcefully 4

respond to risks of more severe storms and rising seas. One problem with this approach is that existing programs are already committed to an extensive agenda of coastal issues.

Another problem is that these programs are underfunded and adding major new responsibilities related to more severe storms and rising seas could lead to underfunding of both existing efforts as well as new responsibilities.

12 National Planning for Climate Change: An Answer to Coastal Inundation?

The Obama administration made remarkable progress in marshalling executive authority and agency capacity to prepare for a changing climate. State and local leaders were engaged in developing new approaches, federal agencies developed climate adaptation plans, and new tools and policies were developed to adapt climate change and flood risk. But the lack of a statutory foundation and buy-in from Congress left this work vulnerable to a new administration willing to wash it away. This first major attempt at preparing the country for climate change also highlighted other challenges, such as the difficulty of addressing a specific problem like coastal storms and rising seas within a larger process attempting to cover all the impacts of a changing climate.

Part IV – States, Communities, and Businesses Cope with Coastal Storms and Rising Seas In Brief: States and communities face novel challenges and hard choices as they plan for more severe coastal storms and rising seas. Tools for managing the problem are complex and often controversial. Relocating coastal communities and assets to higher ground is a complicated process, made more challenging by the social and psychological aspects of storms and rising seas. The private sector has the potential to provide leadership in sorting out options and prompting timely local action but has not stepped up to the challenge. With so much at stake, are local governments in over their heads? In some places—where state and local commitment is strong, local financial resources are deep, and the scale of impacts comparatively small—local governments can manage. But for most coastal states and communities, getting ahead of the onetwo punch of coastal storms and rising seas without substantial help is an unrealistic expectation.

13 Novel Challenges of Storms and Rising Seas More severe storms and rising seas present novel challenges for state and local governments.

Risks of temporary storm flooding shift to risks of permanent inundation, presenting legal challenges related to land ownership and making inundated lands safe. Coastal property owners and municipalities face novel financial risks as coastal property values and tax revenues decline. Each of these novel challenges can be overwhelming and delay or defeat efforts to address the problem.

14 State and Community Choices in Preparing for a Changing Coast State and local governments have choices in how they respond to coastal storms and rising seas. They can educate the public and build awareness of the problem. They can make response plans, commonly involving protecting assets (e.g., build a seawall) or accommodating flooding (e.g., elevate buildings). They can spend taxpayer money or use 5

taxing powers to prompt preparedness actions. And they can regulate. In each of these areas, there are a set of tools that can be mixed and matched to fit the risks a state or community faces and its policy preferences. A problem arises, however, when little progress in responding to these risks is made in the places where it is badly needed (e.g., the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico states). Another problem is that well-meaning plans and response measures are developed without a full reckoning of the risks of inundation over the long term or the financial feasibility of a preferred approach.

15 Relocation: Often the Inevitable Choice Including options for stepping back from the coast as part of the process of responding to more severe storms and rising seas will be an uphill battle. It raises difficult legal issues, including potential taking of private property. It can involve buyouts of property and may appear to be more expensive than short-term solutions offering structural protection from flooding, or temporary accommodation of flooding. In addition, more than other options, relocation faces a psychological hurdle—it is a natural reaction to fight to protect a place you know and love, especially after a devastating storm. And in many places, relocation options highlight social issues related to income and race.

16 Social and Psychological Dimensions of Coastal Storms and Rising Seas Coastal storms and rising seas have a disproportionate impact on disadvantaged people and communities. Accounting for these impacts is a matter of fairness but also forces some needed discipline in thinking about the limits of financial resources and how limited resources are allocated (e.g., can the country afford structural protection everywhere?).

Disasters also have significant psychological impacts, and coping with rising seas is stressful.

Any response to storms and rising seas will be stressful, but relocation is especially so.

Research fortunately points to ways to make relocation less objectionable, and these steps generally involve approaching the problem at a large geographic scale.

17 Business Community Response to Coastal Risks Federal, state, and local governments need to take the lead in managing the impacts of more damaging storms and rising seas on coastal communities. But the private sector also has a critical role in protecting the very substantial residential, commercial, and industrial assets that are at risk. Private sector engagement includes ethical choices by individuals, such as real estate agents disclosing sea level rise risk to buyers, and they extend to the corporate level where business leaders need to consider coastal flood and inundation risks in their management strategies and participate in community choices about investments in flood protection and relocation. Looking at the big picture of business engagement, the key question is not what the private sector should do but what will prompt businesses to step up to take needed actions.

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Part V – Campaign for a New Coast In Brief: A new national program with capacity and financial resources sufficient to deal with the problems of more severe storms and rising seas can be framed, and despite the obvious obstacles, such a program could be enacted and funded in the foreseeable future. Several factors suggest success. The impacts of stronger storms and rising seas are tangible and will become harder to ignore. The benefits of preparing for these risks far outweigh the costs of failing to act. Building understanding of the risks can still go a long way to overcoming doubts and reluctance to deal with the problem. The diverse resources of American civil society, ranging from professional associations to nonprofit organizations to the private sector, have only begun to engage this issue. And people who care about the coast will increasingly recognize the need for action and support new initiatives.

18 Framework for a National Storm and Sea Level Rise Program The country needs a new national program designed to help the country respond to the risks of more severe coastal storms and rising seas. Key elements of a program are updates to federal flood insurance and disaster assistance programs and adoption of new national policies in key areas like risk disclosure and limiting new development on lands at risk of rising seas. Plans focused specifically on minimizing losses from coastal storms and rising seas are needed at national, state, and local levels. Most importantly, a national program needs to provide leadership that is able to set new directions and goals as conditions change over time. This strategic thinking is not possible without a rigorous commitment to public engagement and program evaluation.

19 Funding Coastal Storm and Sea Level Rise Preparedness Devising an effective national program to respond to coastal storms and rising seas is of limited value if it is not supported by adequate funding and financial mechanisms.

Fortunately, the cost to the federal government of at least the initial phase of an improved response to coastal storms and rising seas is substantially less than the likely costs of federal disaster relief for future storm events. Special attention is needed to the problem of helping coastal property owners avoid crippling financial losses in the years ahead. But prompt action is critical. Each year that passes without effective responses in place means that options are more limited, the margin for error gets slimmer, and the dimensions of the problem grow as millions more people move to risky coastal areas.

20 Campaign for a New Coast A new national program to prepare for more severe storms and rising seas is not likely to happen without a campaign to put the issue on the national agenda. Civil society—in the form of educational institutions, foundations, advocacy organizations, and business groups— has the capacity to inform and influence government at all levels to engage this challenge.

Today, different organizations are working on coastal storms and rising seas in the context of their larger mission. Focusing the message of these groups around a coordinated set of policies could attract more interest and put this topic on the national agenda. To advance the 7

national debate on how to respond to these challenges, a campaign needs a platform of policies, programs, and funding mechanisms. In effect, a campaign can help lead a transition to a new coast.

Conclusion The problem of coastal storms and rising seas along the American coast will be much more manageable and far less costly if global air temperatures stay below the 2° increase cap. To that end, the United States should strongly support the Paris Climate Agreement and provide encouragement and support for other countries to do the same.

In addition, the successes and failures of other countries as they deal with coastal inundation will be evident for all to see. Watching these developments, American policymakers will have some warning of the challenges to come and a chance to avoid the mistakes of others or learn from successes. At the same time, the United States enjoys unparalleled scientific, legal, and economic resources. Marshalling these resources and stepping forward to find effective solutions to the challenges offers the United States a chance to get ahead of the risks and to demonstrate to a wider world audience effective methods, tools, and practices. American leadership can make a difference for the world and pay major dividends at home.

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