Miami Report 2021 | Q3 Update

Page 1

OCT 2021

Q3 UPDATE


REAL ESTATE EXPERTS SAY A MARKET CORRECTION IS COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA SEPTEMBER 2021


Single Family Homes and Condos MLS Residential Snapshot


TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS Analysis for Single Family Homes and Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS

34,811 35,000

25,846 30,000

25,000

19,201

18,686

20,000

15,000

10,000

SOURCE: MLS

5,000

0

Q4-2020

Q1-2021

Q2-2021

Q3-2021


MLS RESALES VS. MLS LISTING RATIO for Single Family Homes and Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties NEW MLS RESALES NEW MLS LISTINGS

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

5

4

3

3

1 SOURCE: MLS

2

2

1

0

Q4-2020

Q1-2021

Q2-2021


MLS RESALES VS. MLS LISTING RATIO for Single Family Homes and Condos in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties NEW MLS RESALES NEW MLS LISTINGS

10

9

9

8

8

7

EQUILIBRIUM

7

6

5

5

5

4

3

3

1 SOURCE: MLS

2

2

1

0

Q4-2020

Q1-2021

Q2-2021

Q3-2021


QUARTERLY RESALE ABSORPTION for Single Family Homes and Condos in MiamiDade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. TOTAL QUARTERLY RESALE ABSORPTION

38,930 40,000

35,000

29,837

29,992

Q1-2021

Q2-2021

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

SOURCE: MLS

5,000

0

Q4-2020


QUARTERLY RESALE ABSORPTION for Single Family Homes and Condos in MiamiDade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. TOTAL QUARTERLY RESALE ABSORPTION

38,930 40,000

35,000

29,837

29,992

30,000

25,000

20,000

14,868 15,000

10,000

SOURCE: MLS

5,000

0

Q4-2020

Q1-2021

Q2-2021

Q3-2021


New Construction (PREVIOUS CYCLE 2012 - 2020)


NEW CONSTRUCTION Condo Summary COCONUT GROVE TO FORT LAUDERDALE, TRADITIONAL NEW CONDOS EAST OF I-95 TRADITIONAL CONDOS ARE DEFINED AS CONDOS WITH NO SHORT-TERM RENTALS

REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS

97%

SOLD AS OF SEPTEMBER 2021

19,465 TOTAL UNITS RELEASED SINCE 2012-2020

18,835 TOTAL SOLD UNITS

631 REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY


SOURCE: MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD COUNTY TAX RECORDS AND DEVELOPER ONSITE SALES OFFICE

Macro Future Deliveries for Traditional Condos Released for sale 2012 - 2020 COCONUT GROVE TO EAST FORT LAUDERDALE TOTAL CONDOS DELIVERED BY DECADE

ELYSEE

7

GROVE ARBOR 57TH OCEAN - SOLD OUT

6

MONACO YACHT CLUB & RESIDENCES THE ESTATES AT ACQUALINA SOUTH TOWER - SOLD OUT 2000 OCEAN

5

FOUR SEASONS PRIVATE RESIDENCES

ASTON MARTIN

4

MISSONI BAIA THE ESTATES AT ACQUALINA NORTH TOWER

3

AURORA

2

# OF BUILDINGS TO BE DELIVERED

MR. C RESIDENCES*

UNA RESIDENCES*

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

7

4

1

0

1

*PROJECTED

1


CONDO MLS Resale Market Snapshot Total new construction condo units delivered in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown Miami, The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012.

Q1 - 2021

Q2 - 2021

Q3 - 2021

% ACTIVE

TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS

% ACTIVE

TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS

% ACTIVE

(2012-2021)

TOTAL ACTIVE MLS LISTINGS

681

48

6.95%

28

4.05%

27

3.91%

FORT LAUDERDALE

1,265

93

7.35%

67

5.30%

60

4.74%

BRICKELL

5,522

618

11.19%

455

8.24%

428

7.75%

848

98

11.56%

76

8.96%

71

8.37%

5,332

608

11.40%

565

10.60%

488

9.15%

MIAMI BEACH

640

122

19.06%

70

10.94%

81

12.66%

AVENTURA / NORTH MIAMI BEACH

1,442

219

15.19%

167

11.58%

168

11.65%

SUNNY ISLES BEACH

2,118

301

14.21%

256

12.09%

243

11.47%

HALLANDALE/HOLLYWOOD BEACH

539

188

34.88%

130

24.12%

114

21.15%

18,387

2,295

12.47%

1,814

9.86%

1,680

9.13%

*TOTAL UNITS DELIVERED

COCONUT GROVE / KEY BISCAYNE

BAL HARBOUR/SURFSIDE/BAY HARBOR ISLAND DOWNTOWN MIAMI / EDGEWATER

TOTALS

B

U

Y

E

R

* UNDER CONSTRUCTION/PRE-CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS NOT INCLUDED, ONLY THOSE WITH CERTIFICATE OF OCCUPANCY.

SOURCE: MLS

'

S

M

A

R

K

E

T


MLS Sales Profile for 2021

3% COCONUT GROVE/KEY BISCAYNE 5% AVENTURA / NORTH MIAMI 4% DOWNTOWN MIAMI

37% BRICKELL

11% THE BEACHES (MIAMI BEACH - SUNNY ISLES)

14% FORT LAUDERDALE

SOURCE: MLS

1 OUT OF EVERY 3 CONDO SALES IS IN BRICKELL

26% EDGEWATER


A New Cycle Begins


A New Cycle Begins TRADITIONAL CONDOS (NO SHORT TERM RENTALS) Coconut Grove To Fort Lauderdale - East of I-95

HOTEL & RESIDENCES

BRICKELL

DOWNTOWN MIAMI

EDGEWATER

OCEANFRONT RESIDENCES

RESIDENCES

BAY HARBOR

MIAMI BEACH

BAY HARBOR

SUNNY ISLES

FORT LAUDERDALE


A New Cycle Begins SHORT TERM RENTALS IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI

1. 3

2. 3. 4. 5.

2 1

4

5


30 Year condo delivery Analysis for TRADITIONAL CONDOS &

SHORT-TERM/AIRBNB CONDOS Coconut Grove To Fort Lauderdale - East of I-95

58,953 60,000 55,000

45,000

TRADITIONAL VS. SHORT-TERM/AIRBNB

40,000

TRADITIONAL CONDOS - 1,627

35,000

SHORT TERM RENTALS - 1,789

30,000

19,465

25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000

1,627

5,000 0

# OF BUILDINGS

PREVIOUS CYCLE

LAST CYCLE

CURRENT CYCLE

2001 - 2010

2012 - 2020

2021+

275

123

11

SOURCE: MLS

TRADITIONAL CONDO UNITS RELEASED

50,000


Population Demand


FLORIDA'S 5 Year Daily Population Growth

1,100

1,063

943

1,000

(PEOPLE PER DAY)

904

900

800

700

600 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

FLORIDA'S 5 YEAR AVERAGE FOR DAILY POPULATION GROWTH


FLORIDA IS FAST BECOMING THE SECOND HOME FOR WALL STREET.

OVER 70 COMPANIES HAVE RELOCATED FROM NEW YORK SINCE 2020


Gained The Most Population In 2020 TOTAL DAILY POPULATION GROWTH RANKING

1.

TEXAS

2.

FLORIDA

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

1,002 904


Lost The Most Population In 2020 TOTAL DAILY POPULATION GROWTH RANKING

49.

NEW YORK

-528

50.

ILLINOIS

-616

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


U.S. WILL OPEN BORDERS TO VACCINATED FOREIGN TRAVELERS ON NOV. 8 OCTOBER 2021


TAKEAWAYS

1.

SUPPLY SHOCK

2.

A NEW CYCLE BEGINS

3.

POPULATION & DEMAND CONTINUES TO GROW

4.

NOVEMBER 8TH


OCT 2021

Q3 UPDATE


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