Miami Report | 2020 Q3 Update

Page 1

presents

TM

Q3 UPDATE


2 0 2 0

Q1 - Q2 Unprecedented


Historic Economic Recovery Comparison Perspective by Andres Oppenheimer SoFlo Ahead Webinar | May 12, 2020

1929-1938

2008-2009

2020

The Great Depression

The Great Recession

Current Recession

The Great Depression started in the United States after a major fall in stock prices that began around September 4, 1929, and became worldwide news with the stock market crash of October 29, 1929.

Causes of the Great Recession include a combination of vulnerabilities that developed in the financial system.

Real economic shock of the disruption of global and domestic supply chains and direct damage to businesses across all industries due to the Covid-19 epidemic.

(10-year recovery)

*Projected

(2-year recovery)

(6-month recovery*)


2 0 2 0

Q3 - Q4 Optimism


MLS

S I N G L E FA M I LY H O M E S


What is the Real Estate Rule of Thumb?

10% or more of inventory = Buyers market 10% or less of inventory

= Seller’s market


Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach County Single Family Homes Residential Snapshot PALM BEACH

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY Total Single Family Homes: 4,516 / 678,860 available for sale or rent in MLS

BROWARD COUNTY Total Single Family Homes: 3,808/ 495,877 available for sale or rent in MLS

Total Single Family Homes: 3,692 / 609,446 available for sale or rent in MLS

99.33%

99.23%

99.27%

(unavailable)

0.67% (available)

(unavailable)

0.77% (available)

(unavailable)

0.73% (available)

LOW INVENTORY

LOW INVENTORY

LOW INVENTORY

of Single Family Homes are available for sale or rent in Miami-Dade County

of Single Family Homes are available for sale or rent in Broward County

of Single Family Homes are available for sale or rent in Palm Beach County

ONLY 0.67% Seller’s market

ONLY 0.77% Seller’s market

ONLY 0.73% Seller’s market


Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach County Total Active Analysis for Single Family Homes TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS

16,248 15,009

16,000 15,000

13,497

14,000 13,000 T O TA L A C T I V E L I S T I N G S

12,000

10,623

11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

Jan 2019

Sept 2019

Jan 2020

Sept 2020


Single Family Homes Selling Faster than the can be listed in 2020

Avg. # New Single Family Home Listings p/month

Avg. Sales p/month

Avg. Fewer homes to sell

3,554

3,871

-317


South Florida’s V Shape Recovery for Single Family Homes Sold in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County January - September in 2019 & 2020

2019 vs. 2020 Quarterly Sales Difference (%) 20%

2019 VS 2020 SALES DIFFERENCE (%)

8.78%

0%

2020

(6-month recovery*)

-20%

Andres Oppenheimer

-40%

*Projected

4.23%

-31.79% Q1

Q2

Q3 More sales in Aug & Sept 2020 than in 2019


MLS

CONDOS


Condos find a Pulse. Single Family Homes vs. Condos Transactions Comparison MIAMI-DADE | BROWARD | PALM BEACH

2020-Q1

2020-Q2

2020-Q3

Single Family Homes Single Family Homes

50%

transactions

Condominiums

50%

85%

Single Family Homes

65%

transactions

transactions

transactions

Condominiums

15% transactions

A L L

T R A N S A C T I O N S

Condominiums

35% transactions


Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach County Total Active Analysis for Condos TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS

30,000 29,000

28,774

T O TA L A C T I V E L I S T I N G S

28,000

26,998

27,000

25,542

26,000 25,000

24,188

24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000

Jan 2019

Sept 2019

Jan 2020

Sept 2020


Condos Now Selling Faster than the can be listed in 2020

Avg. #Condos Listings p/month

Avg. Sales p/month

Avg. Fewer condos to sell

2,733

2,798

-65


South Florida’s V Shape Recovery for Condos Sold in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County January - September in 2019 & 2020

2019 vs. 2020 Quarterly Sales Difference (%)

2019 VS 2020 SALES DIFFERENCE (%)

20%

3.01% 0%

-9.67%

2020

-20%

(6-month recovery*)

-40%

Andres Oppenheimer -60%

-47.46% Q1

Q2

Q3


Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County Total Velocity Analysis for Single Family Homes and Condos

62,829 86.01%

Jan - Sept 2019

54,037

Jan - Sept 2020 0

Total Sales for Aug & Sept

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Aug

Sept

2019 Sales

7,189

6,562

2020 Sales

7,366

6,786

177

224

2.46%

3.41%

Sales Difference % Difference

50,000

60,000

70,000

Sales made in 2020 compared to 2019


Con struc tion

N E W


CURRENT CYCLE

New Construction Condo Summary Coconut Grove to Fort Lauderdale, Traditional New Condos East of I-95

REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS

91.80% Sold as of Sept 2020

1,591

17,831

Remaining Developer Inventory

Total Sold Units

19,404 Total Units


CURRENT CYCLE

Brickell Construction Condo Summary

REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS

96.48% Sold as of Sept 2020

199

5,458

Remaining Developer Inventory

Total Sold Units

5,657 Total Units


Brickell New Construction Update for Condos Built Since 2012 TOTAL UNSOLD DEVELOPER LISTINGS

T O TA L U N S O L D D E V E L O P E R L I S T I N G S

500

483 Brickell City Centre 125

400

Brickell Flatiron 29

329 300

Una Residences 45

250 199

200

100

0

Jan 2019

Sept 2019

Jan 2020

Sept 2020


Brickell MLS Resale Snapshot for New Condos Built Since 2012 TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS

903

900

16.35%

867

15.70%

791

14.32%

T O TA L A C T I V E L I S T I N G S

800

677

700

12.26%

600

500

Jan 2019

Sept 2019

Jan 2020

Sept 2020


MLS Resale Profile for 2020

Brickell

7%

Edgewater Downtown Miami The Beaches

(Miami Beach - Sunny Isles)

Aventura / North Miami Coconut Grove / Key Biscayne Fort Lauderdale

Source: MLS (New Condos Built Since 2012 East of I-95)

4% 12%

36% BRICKELL

17% 18%

6%

FA C T

1 out of every 3 Sales are in Brickell


CURRENT CYCLE

Brickell Groundbreakings for Traditional Condos Traditional Condos are defined as Condos with no short-term rentals TOTAL GROUNDBREAKINGS

5

4

3

Una Residences

2

1

1

0

0

2018

2019

0

0

0

0

0

2021*

2022*

2023*

2024*

2025*

0

* Projected

2020


Macro Groundbreakings for Traditional Condos Traditional Condos are defined as Condos with no short-term rentals Total macro* new construction groundbreakings by year for traditional condos built since 2012 and east of I-95 *(Brickell, Biscayne Corridor, Downtown Miami, South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach, Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove, Key Biscayne and Fort Lauderdale). Condo developments with 20 units or less not included.

TOTAL GROUNDBREAKINGS

Aston Martin Missoni Baia

5

4

4

Four Seasons Fort Lauderdale 2000 Ocean

Una Residences

Mr. C Residences

3

57 Ocean

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

2021*

2022*

2023*

2024*

2025*

0

2018

* Projected

2019

2020


Pop ula tion

D E M A N D


Net Migration - Data from Tax Returns (Tax Payers & Dependents)

- January 2020

NEW YORK

CONNECTICUT

1. Florida

1. Florida

2. New Jersey

2. Texas

3. North Carolina

3. North Carolina

NEW JERSEY

ILLINOIS

1. Florida

1. Florida

2. North Carolina

2. Texas

3. Georgia

3. Indiana

MASSACHUSETTS 1. Florida 2. Georgia 3. Texas


2010 vs. 2020 Global & Domestic Buyer Profile 2010

50%

2020

49%

49%

45%

FA C T

40% 35%

28% 30%

30% 25%

23%

21%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Latin America

Other

(Canada, Europe & Asia)

U.S.

U.S. more than doubles in 10 years.


Miami Report | Takeaways

1.

2.

Declining developer and MLS inventory

Projected “V” Shaped Recovery underway per Andres Oppenheimer

3.

4.

Continued population growth/demand

Unprecedented lack of future developer supply


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