CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN - Report to WHO-10 -2 March 2020

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY Warning on an ongoing tragedy

Abstract A factual overview of the catastrophe gripping Iran: Coronavirus becoming an epidemic

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

2

The Outbreak of Coronavirus in Iran

2

The Cover-up

7

The Ruling System as the Main Source of the Virus Spread

8

The Role of the IRGC

11

Scale of the Spread

14

Conclusion and opinion

17

1

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

Introduction The objective of this report is to provide a factual overview of the catastrophe gripping our country Iran. Coronavirus has become an epidemic. According to the latest official figures, China has seen the largest share of fatalities and infections, with Italy following it in terms of the highest death toll. But, reports and facts obtained from across Iran paint a much larger humanitarian catastrophe in that country. This report attempts to provide a synopsis of the realities and situation in Iran with respect to coronavirus.

The basis of the facts, examples and assessments are statements and data provided by the Iranian regime's officials and state-run media outlets. Complementary reports have been obtained from the Iranian regime's official institutions.

The report begins with a look at the source of the virus in Iran and the timeline of its spread.

This assessment scrutinizes cases that have for one reason or another been covered up. It then outlines the scope and extent of the cover-up and the fact that the primary reason for the rapid spread of the virus was the ruling system, particularly the main element of power, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Presentation of examples of provision of aid, accompanied by discriminatory practices, forms another part of the report. In the end, the report reveals the extensive scale of the spread of the virus and offers a grim and dismal assessment of the prospects, as articulated by the regime's own officials.

1. The Outbreak of Coronavirus in Iran Over all, there is consensus that the Coronavirus’ spread in Iran began in the holy city of Qom and then quickly spread to other parts of the country. Several reasons are put forward as to how the epidemic surfaced in Qom; one of them the presence of 700 Chinese theology students in the city and their movement to and from the city.

1.1. The source On March 6, 2020, the state-run daily Mostaqel quoted the head of the Article 90 Committee of the Parliament (Majlis), Bahram Parsai, as saying: "The flights were only supposed to bring in Iranians and students from China, but we witnessed the continuation of Chinese flights and Iranian airliners routinely transporting Chinese travelers from other countries."1

1

http://www.mostaghelnewspaper.ir/paper/post/38301

2

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

On February 19, 2020, the official news agency IRNA quoted the Deputy Health Minister as saying, “Two elderly patients in the city of Qom had passed away in two different regions."

The website web.archive.gov reported on February 20, 2020: "What did his brother say?"

This clip shows the first cries of a coronavirus patient on a hospital bed in the city of Qom. One of the very first victims of the virus is the brother of a doctor in the city. According to one of the physicians close to him, this individual has said that they finally tested his brother after a week when he insisted on a coronavirus test. We discovered the test was positive only after his death. Dozens of others have died with these symptoms. His brother had not traveled and contracted the virus in Qom city.

ISNA wrote on February 24, 2020: "The Health Minister has announced that one of the coronavirus victims in Qom was a businessman who had traveled to China."

The Independent Farsi-language newspaper reported on February 27, 2020: "The head of the Mashhad University’s College of Medicine, Mohammad-Hossein Bahraini, had said that 700 Chinese theology students in Qom's religious seminary (Hawza) formed the basis of the spread of coronavirus in this religious city."2 1.2. Qom, the epicentre of the spread of virus; Failure to quarantine Nahid Khodakarami, head of the health committee of the Tehran city council, said on March 1: "Two weeks ago, I told Dr. Harirchi and even Dr. Nobakht (head of the parliament health committee) that Qom must be quarantined, but they did not listen. There must be restrictions placed on Qom. Now, the entire country has been infected. Even in a small city like Khansar, three people have tested positive for coronavirus. All three had gone there from Qom. Yesterday, three people traveled from Qom to Tehran and all of them died. If we had not given priority to the concerns of the clerics, we would have been in a much better situation. When the elections were over, I told the chairman of the parliamentary committee to tell the Qom representatives to stay there and avoid returning to Tehran.

They were involved in election campaigns. He said there are some political considerations that I have to tell you in person."

Massoud Pezeshkian, first deputy speaker of the Majlis and a former Minister of Health in the regime, said on March 3, 2020: "We should have quarantined Qom from day one. ...

This disease is not a joke, which is the way we are dealing with it. Currently hospitals are overflowing and there is no room for more patients, and it will get worse by the day. The economy and everything will be ruined. ... If we had done so on the first day, it would not have spread to the entire country."3

2 3

https://www.independentpersian.com/node/43516/%D8%B https://arbne.ws/2Tl2xHR

3

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

According to the state-run TV on February 23, 2020, the regime's Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said: "Some had recommended to delay the elections, and insisted to delay elections in Qom. But, I, as the official for the elections, refused to approve these recommendations."

On March 9, 2020, the state-run daily Jahan-e San’at said officials of the crisis headquarters and other authorities said since day one of the spread of the coronavirus that the practice of quarantine belongs to the Middle Ages. They announced that there are no plans to put any cities under quarantine.4 The French Daily Le Monde wrote on March 3, 2020: "Iranian physicians believe that the current situation has arisen as a result of the officials' refusal to quarantine Qom city, which is the primary source of the spread of the epidemic in the country. The first cases of the coronavirus emerged in Qom. However, quarantining the city ran against the interests of clerics, and they use religious justifications to oppose any measures to restrict the entry of pilgrims to shrines."5 On March 1, 2020, Jahan-e San’at daily wrote: "... The officials saw the situation through a security lens and showed a preference to have the coronavirus spread to the rest of the country and even other nations rather than quarantining Qom. Why should the people's lives not mean anything?"6 On March 9, 2020, Ebtekar daily wrote: "Since the beginning, many believed that Qom city should be quarantined as a means to prevent the spread of coronavirus in Iran. Not only did this not happen, but there was clear opposition against it."7 A well-known regime-affiliated reporter, Hossein Dehbashi, tweeted on March 8: "History is written by the winners. My share of it - whether I'm alive or not - would be to provide a testimony to future generations that if they ask in the future why 22 provinces in this innocent cat (geographical shape of Iran) became ill and went one step closer to death, that this happened because of the selfishness of mullahs who used their turban to intimidate and refused to allow Qom to be quarantined."

4

https://jahanesanat.ir/?p=38725 https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/02/26/en-iran-le-coronavirus-complot-de-l6 https://jahanesanat.ir/?p=37886 7 http://ebtekarnews.com/?newsid=153232 5

4

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

On February 26, the regime supreme leader's representative in Qom, Mohammad Saeedi, said that despite the spread of coronavirus across the country, the Massoumeh shrine in Qom "is considered to be a place of healing, and it must be kept open and people have to visit it in force."8 A member of the Parliament’s leadership, Alireza Rahimi, tweeted on March 8: "Representatives of Qom must give an explanation about their actions on two fronts: Why was the spread of coronavirus in Qom covered up under the guise of parliamentary elections? And, why was Qom not quarantined in order to prevent the spread of coronavirus to the rest of the country? All of Iran has been the victims of the negligence and faults regarding the most basic control of the virus in Qom." 1.3. First cases surface in mid-January In the initial media accounts and statements of regime officials, the emergence of coronavirus can be traced back to the days around February 20 or February 21. However, there are many reports in state-run media outlets that show that the issue had surfaced as far back as January. The following are some examples: 

On February 1, 2020, the state-run daily Jahan-e San’at published an article penned by Mohammad-Reza Sotoudeh and titled "Imported Death,"9 in which it said: "Two Chinese individuals showed signs of fever in Tabriz (northwestern Iran) and they were quarantined.

They were tested to see if they have contracted coronavirus or not. ... The three-day coverup about the Ukrainian airliner makes us think that it has been two weeks since coronavirus has entered Iran."10



On February 5, the state-run daily Iran wrote: "It is probable that Iran has also been infected by the coronavirus. ... If that's the case, why do health ministry officials keep repeating and reiterating that they have provided information in this regard in a transparent manner? Can they not just say that once?"11

8

https://www.khabarfoori.com/detail/1704816/ https://jahanesanat.ir/%D9%85%D8%B1%DA%AF-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA%DB%8C/34272/ 10 https://jahanesanat.ir/?p=34272 11 http://www.iran-newspaper.com/newspaper/item/535180 9

5

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY



On February 3, the state-run Ebtekar daily quoted the governor of Tehran province, Anoushirvan Mohseni Bandpey, as saying: "With regards to coronavirus, one must not have sensational or emotional reactions, but rather we must have the necessary preparedness in a technical manner." He suggested that a "biological defence center be established and Khomeini airport obtain the necessary equipment to prevent the spread of coronavirus."12



On February 9, Hamdeli daily wrote: "Consider today. Coronavirus is coming. ... The people lost their trust after the airliner crash. Similarly, they may not trust (the regime) with respect to the coronavirus case. People are worried that the truth is hidden from them."13



On February 12, Khabar-e Fori wrote: "On February 10, hospital officials at one of the capital's hospitals contacted the emergency line 110 and reported the suspicious death of a 63-year-old woman. According to initial investigations and on the basis of what the health care givers have said, it is possible that this woman had contracted the coronavirus and has died as a result of it."14



On February 26, French daily Le Monde wrote that according to a doctor in Rasht (northern Iran), "In our city's hospitals, they indicate the cause of death for some patients as 'influenza' but they have lost their lives as a result of COVID-19 virus."15 A second physician in Tehran said: "In late January, one patient died in our hospital, and we suspect that they were infected by the coronavirus. However, hospital officials denied this. After that, other people were admitted to the hospital and one of them died. We protested against this and said if our work conditions remain the same we will suspend our work. We were sure that before the February 11 anniversary celebrations and the February 21 parliamentary elections, no statements or notices would be issued in this regard. And that is exactly what happened."16



On February 15, 2020, Interior Minister Rahmani Fazli, told the state-run Channel One TV: "One of these exiled media outlets was telling people not to participate in the elections on Friday because all the pens, ballots and juices that they give you are contaminated with coronavirus (laughs). It's hard to understand their imagination. What kind of government would invite its citizens to come and vote and at the same time infect them with coronavirus so that the entire country shuts down?"

2. The Cover-up Several signs show a trend of cover-up and lack of transparency in announcing the existence of the epidemic and the spread of infection among citizens, as well as true dimensions of

12

http://ebtekarnews.com/?newsid=151560 http://hamdelidaily.ir/index.php/fa/archive/%DB%B1%DB%B3%DB%B2%DB%B6/vije.pdf?post=755 14 https://www.khabarfoori.com/detail/1676645/%D9%85% 15 https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/02/26/en-iran-le-coronavirus-complot-de-l-ennemi_6030914_3244.html 16 https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/02/26/en-iran-le-coronavirus-complot-de-l-ennemi_6030914_3244.html 13

6

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

the virus’ spread nationwide, official reaction and existing prospects. This was especially true as to the number of victims. Examples are contradictory expressions by authorities in different time frames or their warnings on worrisome dimensions of the virus’ spread and victims’ number, all showing a systematic effort to cover up and hide the catastrophe.

On February 29, 2020, the state-run daily Resalat wrote: "With regards to the number of infected nurses, we cannot release any figures. The statistics are completely security related and cannot be revealed. Even the head of hospitals might not know the number of coronavirus victims. Even if a coronavirus victim goes to the hospital, the statistics are not given to the hospital supervisor. There is a special private channel and no one but the health ministry officials is aware of the numbers."17 Nahid Khodakarami, head of the heath committee of the Tehran city council, said on March 1: "Yesterday, I said that in Tehran it is possible that 10,000 people have been infected with coronavirus. The IRGC intelligence unit called me and complained. They asked why did you provide this number? I said, sir, how long are you going to cover this up? These numbers are being talked about in the society and with me saying it, it calms the situation. Let's be transparent with the people. We shouldn't make this illness into a security matter. You don't need to call me and ask me why I divulge some figures. I merely provided some expert opinion. The intelligence official of the IRGC told me that I should refer the matter to the health ministry. I said that OK we should increase the pressure on the health ministry to be more transparent and to freely express themselves and tell the people, otherwise our reputation in the world would be eroded."

The head of Yaftabad hospital in Tehran said on March 1: "Our primary problem in this crisis was that we did not transmit the right information to the people and we don't have the right information. Fearing that we should treat everything as political and security matters, we endanger people's health. It's always been this way."

On March 9, the state-run daily Mostaqel quoted a physician and former member of the Tehran city council as saying: "The cover-up regarding the outbreak of coronavirus in the country and refusing to provide accurate and transparent information since day one has caused people to distrust the official statistics."18 Parliament Deputy from the city of Shiraz, Bahram Parsai, tweeted on March 8, 2020: "Has the WHO Rapporteur who said that Iran has a very advanced medical system visited coronavirus epicenters in Qom and north of the country? Have they produced reports regarding lack of resources from physicians and people who have been infected by the virus? What would your false report and denial of reality lead to other than the worsening of the crisis in Iran and refusal to take responsibility under your global mandate?" (This tweet was also sent to the World Health Organization).

17 18

http://paper.resalat-news.ir/newspaper/item/70465 http://www.mostaghelnewspaper.ir/paper/post/38856

7

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

3. The Ruling System as the Main Source of the Virus Spread In Iran, the state and its interests and its priorities have played the main role in the spread in the spread of the virus. Clearly, political considerations and interests prevented transparent public information. This included the decision not to quarantine critical areas, lack of transparency and lack of general mobilization to face the crisis, giving false hope to the population, and refraining from providing a minimum of necessary means to the people and to health centers.

The state-run Khabar (News) Network quoted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as saying: "In our view, this calamity is not a big one. There have been and still are bigger ones. We ourselves have seen instances in the country. One can overcome many of these problems by resorting to, asking for forgiveness and praying to the innocent Imams and seeking help from them. If there is a need for a particular recommendation, my recommendation would be to recite the seventh prayer of the Sajjadieh Sahifeh. This prayer is very good. It has a substance and allows one to pray to God. ... This incident has not occurred in our country alone. You know and have heard that this incident has taken place in many other countries in the world today. The only difference is that in many countries they cover it up and don't announce it. Our officials are genuine and honest, and since day one, they have transparently made public announcements. They have informed the people, which is a good thing to do. ... This is a fleeting event and it is not extraordinary. These things happen in this country."19 On March 9, state-run daily Ebtekar wrote that the president (Hassan Rouhani) believed just two weeks ago that everything would return to normal starting on Saturday, February 29, 2020. Merely two or three days later, the health minister and some other officials contradicted Rouhani's statement in words and deeds, and it was even announced that Iran is facing tough weeks ahead when it comes to grappling with the coronavirus. But, Rouhani made no mention of his previous statement in his subsequent speeches.20 On February 23, 2020, the state-run TV quoted Interior Minister Rahmani Fazli as saying: "Some had recommended to delay the elections, and insisted to delay elections in Qom. But, I, as the official for the elections, refused to approve these recommendations." (This is a repeat above.

The state-run daily Ebtekar said on March 9: The chairman and three members of the Citizens' Rights faction in parliament demanded an order to be issued by the Supreme National Security Council to place crisis centers under 100 percent quarantine. Abdolkarim Hosseinzadeh, Tayyebeh Siavoshi, Fatemeh Saeedi, and Seyyedeh Hamideh Zarabadi, wrote on their personal accounts on Twitter: "Preventing the spread of coronavirus has not been 19 20

http://farsi.khamenei.ir/speech-content?id=45076 http://ebtekarnews.com/?newsid=153232

8

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

successful for whatever reason. Two necessary steps: 1 - An order by the Supreme National Security Council to place crisis centers under 100 percent quarantine. 2 - Use the replete resources of the Social Security Investment Company, the Setad-e Imam, the Oppressed Foundation and petrochemical holdings to procure and distribute masks, suits, glasses and other necessary medical supplies."21 3.1. Mismanagement On March 9, 2020, Jahan-e San’at wrote: "One must confess that the situation is red (high alert). All of the provinces have been infected by the virus and medical clinics are at a loss.

But, one must not forget that before being infected by the coronavirus, our people were infected by incompetent managers, which is a disease a hundred times worse than coronavirus. These officials neither know how to calm the situation down nor do they give space to those who can."22 On March 9, Ebtekar daily wrote: "It is not clear what happened to the masks and other sanitizers that were sent to Iran, or those that were confiscated after the coronavirus outbreak, or those that were discovered in illicit storage facilities or even those that were produced using new production capabilities. In circumstances where there is a tangible shortage in the market and even in medical centers, these have been some of the biggest questions that have remained unanswered in the context of managing the virus in recent days. The indecisive decision making and lack of accurate reviews and technical investigations that consider all of the angles have further revealed the weakness in the management of coronavirus in Iran.

"It is not right to transfer the responsibility of controlling the spread of the virus to the people themselves in circumstances where there are no special arrangements made to access masks, gloves and sanitizers, nor have there been arrangements made regarding the financial and employment situation of especially the weaker sectors of society (including laborers and taxi drivers, among others) and private sector employees, nor are people confident about the situation of bureaucratic measures, nor are the necessary infrastructures in place for telecommunications and government electronics, among many other issues. In such circumstances, one cannot consider the role of government and the state to be minimal in controlling the coronavirus. When it comes to containing the spread of the virus, the ball is in the decision makers' and officials' court. Both the consequences of not quarantining and also preparing the circumstances to initiate quarantines will be on their shoulders, even when it's too late to do so."23 On March 9, 2020, IRNA reported: "The head of the Nursing Organization, Mohammad Mirzabeigi, said: 'The shortage of protective gear against coronavirus such as masks, gloves, 21

http://ebtekarnews.com/?newsid=153232 https://jahanesanat.ir/?p=38725 23 http://ebtekarnews.com/?newsid=153232 22

9

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

gowns and face shields continues in some healthcare facilities, and nurses and health workers in these areas aid and care for patients while enduring many difficulties."24 3.2. Superstitions and Prevalence of Fundamentalist Attitudes An added element to mismanagement preventing aide and necessary items to quickly reach those in need has been superstitious views and fundamentalist, reactionary religious visions spread by the regime in social aspects especially in the field of hygiene and health.

On March 1, 2020, the Javan Journalists Club wrote: "The public relations center of His Excellency the Supreme Leader has published His Eminence's fatwa (religious decree) regarding ablution (Ghosl), burial and prayer as a result of coronavirus deaths. Question: If a person dies due to the infectious disease of coronavirus, which experts have indicated has a high infection rate, what is our duty with respect to ablution of the corpse, burial and prayer after burial? Answer: Mere contraction of this disease does not cause infraction of religious duties with regards to the dead; therefore, while observing complete medical matters and using protective equipment, even if this proves to be costly, one must observe the minimum duties regarding ablution of the dead body, embalming, wrapping the body in winding sheet, burial and post-burial prayer."25 The head of a hospital in Tehran's Yaftabad said on March 1, 2020: "If we had limited the travel of people in Qom, since the epicentre of the illness is in Qom, the spread would not have been so extensive. You look at the map and you will see that it spread to neighbouring provinces from Qom. ... Dr. Abrazeh (deputy head of the Qom medical sciences university) had instructed the closure of the shrine but a number of people refused to close the Masoumeh shrine citing religious reasons."

3.3. The "Bioterrorism" Theory and Other Conspiracies The regime is trying to invoke a foreign enemy and hatch conspiracy theories to avoid responsibility regarding the spread of coronavirus and blame other countries for it.

On March 9, Mostaqel daily wrote under the headline ‘Biological Coronavirus’: "The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, said about the spread of the coronavirus in Iran: 'Today, we are dealing with a biological warfare. But the country will resist.' Salami described the spread of coronavirus in Iran and the high death toll of Iranian citizens as a result as a 'biological attack by America' and added: 'We will be victorious in the fight against this virus that may have been the product of an American biological attack, which was first spread to China and then Iran and other parts of the world.'"26 Similarly, a former chairman of the National Security and Foreign Affairs 24

https://www.irna.ir/news/83706530/%DA https://www.yjc.ir/fa/news/7265951 26 http://www.mostaghelnewspaper.ir/paper/post/38878 25

10

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

Committee of the Parliament, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, said: "Trump and US Secretary of State Pompeo are lying about the coronavirus because it is not a typical cause of death.

Rather, it is an act of bioterrorism that has spread to Iran and China and we must not ignore this matter."27 On March 9, 2020, the head of the Armed Forces Chief of Staff Health Office, Hassan Araqizadeh, who is also a spokesman for the Armed Forces Headquarters Combating the Coronavirus, pointed to a potential biological attack by the US through the spread of coronavirus and said: "There are some evidence and probabilities in this regard which must be assessed."

On March 9, Mostaqel daily wrote: "With respect to the coronavirus in Iran, its spread was first and foremost attributed to the enemy's plots, indicating that the enemies want to use it to weaken and harm the interests of the people and the state. ... More than trying to discover the nature and sources of the virus or the reasons for its spread, the enemy is attacked under various pretexts and all the blame is put on those who are perceived to show enmity and hostility toward the state and the people. ... In the context of medical treatment and health, such discourse has led to the fact that statistics about the ill and victims of the virus have become confidential, robbing people of the opportunity for transparency with respect to release of information and news."28 4. The Role of the IRGC One striking difference between the Iranian situation and other countries facing the same predicament is the security dimension of the problem, especially when it comes to informing the public on the crisis. The IRGC, acting as the regime’s backbone, has played a vital role in this respect. Mahan Air, owned by the IRGC, continued passenger flights to China until a few days ago. IRGC’s Intelligence Organization has a special mission to prevent information leak on coronavirus spread and its dimensions.

According to a report obtained from inside Iran, during a Supreme National Security Council meeting on February 22, the health minister called for quarantining Qom city, but the head of the IRGC's Intelligence Organization, Hossein Taeb, opposed the recommendation.

In a confidential memo dated February 26, 2020, one of the IRGC commanders in Tehran wrote that while there are disagreements about how the virus entered Iran, what is certain is that the IRGC is being blamed for it. This is because Mahan Air is a special IRGC service company that has 27 28

http://www.mostaghelnewspaper.ir/paper/post/38878 http://www.mostaghelnewspaper.ir/paper/post/38877

11

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

continued its operations with China. Moreover, some media outlets have reported that the virus entered Iran through Chinese theology students in Qom. Reportedly, over 700 Chinese theology students had entered Qom with the support of the IRGC and were studying at the al-Mostafa University.

According to Radio Farda on February 25, 2020, "In a Twitter post in Persian on February 2, Chang Hua, the Chinese ambassador in Tehran, said he had met with the CEO of Mahan Air, Hamid Arabnejad, who 'announced that [his company] would like to continue cooperation with China.'"29 On February 25, Radio Farda reported: "A Radio Farda investigation shows that the Revolutionary Guard owned Mahan Air has continued its flights to four Chinese cities in the past three weeks despite consistent denials by Iranian officials. ... Our investigation revealed that from February 4 to February 22 Mahan Air flew at least 55 times to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and back to Iran from Tehran's Imam Khomeini Airport. 30 On March 9, Khabar Online wrote: "Majid Rezaian, a professor, researcher and journalist, says that one of the sources of people distrust toward domestic media outlets is the fact that they did not report on Mahan Air's transport of Chinese passengers, which was initially covered up by officials."31 On March 3, The New York Times wrote: "Instead of receiving government help, overwhelmed doctors and nurses say they have been warned by security forces to keep quiet. ... And some officials say ... [confirming the scope of the catastrophe] will be viewed as a failure that enemies will exploit. ... The authorities seem as worried about controlling information as they are about controlling the virus, according to telephone interviews and text messages with more than a half dozen Iranian medical workers."32 4.1. Shortage of Resources or Hoarding?

There are several reports on hoarding and reselling at exorbitant prices of the most elementary needs of the population in their fight against coronavirus, all showing individuals with strong ties to ruling elite or agencies such as the IRGC involved.

29

https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-s-sanctioned-airline-continues-flights-to-china-despite-ban-amid-virusscare/30416349.html 30 https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-s-sanctioned-airline-continues-flights-to-china-despite-ban-amid-virusscare/30416349.html 31 https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/136147 32 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/03/world/middleeast/coronavirus-iran.html

12

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

According to Fars news agency on February 29, Health Minister, Saeed Namaki, wrote in a letter to Rouhani: "I predicted the probability of the coronavirus coming into the country in a letter to the country's customs and requested that the export of masks be prohibited until further notice. I instructed my colleagues to purchase domestic products at a rational price and store them for the worst case scenario. Unfortunately, despite many follow-ups, a small number was purchase and the rest of the country's products entered the black market.

Unfortunately, after about 10 days, only a million masks were provided and I do not know where the rest has been stored. My colleagues are forced to work on a daily basis to refer to various markets and play the role of middlemen to purchase these products at astronomical prices from smugglers. On what basis does this opportunistic and unreasonable network dare to stand up to the people and officials and simply declare that it can provide 200 million masks in the span of 24 hours in this or that market at this or that price?"33 On March 2, Radio Farda reported that Namaki had written two letters to the president and Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade, informing them that "there is an unfair and inequitable network dominating the country that is incapable of offering 200 million protective masks within 24 hours anywhere in Iran."34 He also said that the network hoards the products and sells it to smugglers at ten times the price.

He did not say to which institution this network is connected but "opportunistic network" can be interpreted to point to some news reports about importing and producing masks.

Iranian media outlets quoted Mohammad Mokhber, the head of the Setad Foundation (controlled by the Supreme Leader), on March 8, as saying that a deal for 50 million masks has been signed and the first batch will be distributed in Tehran soon.

The Setad, an economic powerhouse, has according to some reports close to 95 billion dollars in assets. It is in effect the treasury department of the supreme leader's office. In recent years, it has become a pharmaceutical giant as well.

On March 7, the Fars news agency quoted Tehran's prosecutor as saying: "Over the past several days, 92 profiteers exploited the situation and the prevailing circumstances to hoard medical supplies and they were arrested."

Among the equipment discovered from the suspects were about 55 million gloves, over 50 million masks and thousands of litres of sanitizers. These were handed over to the health ministry in order to use at medical centers.

33

https://www.farsnews.ir/news/13981210001337/ https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-s-rouhani-orders-minister-to-investigate-hoarding-of-masks-forcoronavirus/30463967.html 34

13

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

On March 9, Javan Online wrote: "The commander of the Coronavirus Management Operations in Tehran said that if Tehran faces problems then the entire country faces challenges regarding its needs, and added: 'The seized products do not enter the market immediately. Moreover, the increase in production capacity has not become apparent on the ground.'"35 On March 2, ISNA said: "In total, 6.2 million masks have been hoarded and secretly stored across Iran. Five million masks have been discovered in Tehran. 22,000 litres of sanitizing products, 16,000 litres of alcohol, and 127,300 packages of gloves have been discovered."

5. Scale of the Spread It is critically important to identify and make public the real scope of the disease and crisis in order to adopt a correct and realistic policy. There have been multiple indications during the past month which make it abundantly clear that the dimensions of the infection in Iran is much greater than what the regime has admitted so far. In several instances where local officials have made comments which reveal the widespread scope of the disease, they are immediately put under pressure to take back their comments and distance themselves from what they had said previously.

NCRI, March 8, 2020: Mohammad Hossein Ghorbani, the Parliament’s Health Commission Deputy Chairman, appointed as the Health Minister’s representative in Gilan Province two days ago, sent a confidential report to Khamenei’s office in which he wrote that 408, including six physicians, had died in the Province because of virus infection. He added that 1,860 hospitalized were, mostly critical condition.

A specialist physician working at one of the army’s hospitals told his colleagues on March 1, “My assessment is that we have more than 100,000 people infected with Coronavirus in Iran. Most certainly, one out of every ten have tested positively. So vast is the scale of the catastrophe that the government cannot contain it.

Hamdeli Daily, March 1, 2020: In a tweet, Nahid Khodakarami, head of the health committee of the Tehran city council, wrote that the number of those infected in Tehran may be between 10,000 to 15,000 people.

State run television, Channel 2, March 2, 2020: Qassem Janbabai, Deputy Health Minister: "We have close to 12,000 people hospitalized during this period. ... Less than 20 percent of the people infected visit hospitals and 80 percent have such minimal symptoms that they can be completely treated at home." In other words, he admitted that at least 60,000 people across the country have been infected by the virus .

35

https://www.Javann.ir/004AgF

14

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

Tabnak website, March 8, 2020: Two Parliament deputies elected to the next parliament, Mohammad Ali Ramezani Dastak, elected in Astaneh Ashrafiyeh and Kiashahr Port, and Fatemeh Rahbar, elected in Tehran died after contracting the virus .

Also Hossein Sheikh al-Islam, former deputy Foreign Minister and former ambassador to Damascus; Mohammad Mirmohammadi, a member of the Expediency Council and his mother, who was sister of Ayatollah Shabiri Zanjani a prominent cleric; Ahmad Tuyserkani, the Judiciary Chief’s adviser, and former head of State Property and Documents Registry Organization; Hojjat ol-Islam Mojtaba Fazeli, head of the office of Ayatollah Shabiri, Haj Javad Karimi, former parliamentary deputy of the Ministry of Intelligence, who was a veteran of the Iran-Iraq WAR, and Ayatollah Mohsen Habib, head of Mojtahedi Seminary and a member of the Supreme Council of the Seminaries of Tehran Province, were among officials who have died due to coronavirus36.

NCRI, March 9, 2020: The coronavirus death toll in 139 cities in all 31 provinces has exceeded 3,000. The number of victims in Qom is 500, Tehran 420, Gorgan 204, Kashan 142, Isfahan 121, Mashhad 205, Qazvin 98, Kermanshah 105, Gilan 450, and Alborz 95. Gilan 500, Markazi (Central) 80, Isfahan 350, Khorasan Razavi 266, Golestan 254, Mazandaran 182, Fars 86, Khuzestan 84, Kurdistan 81, Sistan and Baluchestan 34, and Zanjan 32.

Eslahat News, March 9, 2020: Amin Abadi, a Parliament Deputy from the city of Rasht tweeted: Due to the spread of the coronavirus the situation in the province of Gilan has passed the red line. Mr. Shamkhani, help Iran for God's sake! We have no beds in hospitals to admit more patients, no healthy medical staff, no special masks, no protective clothing, and no medicine! For God's sake think of Iran 37

and Iranians .

Roydad Website, March 8, 2020, Jafarzadeh Eymanabadi: 50% of the medical staff in Gilan province have been infected by the coronavirus. The cemeteries have no more space; the corpses are being buried one on the top of the other. By pointing to statistics of the deaths and infections of coronavirus he said, the situation in the province is very dire and the official figures are incorrect. Unofficial reports suggest that the number of coronavirusrelated deaths in many provinces such as Qom, Tehran, Gilan, and Mazandaran is very high.38

36

https://www.Javann.ir/004AgF https://www.Javann.ir/004AgF 38 https://www.rouydad24.ir/fa/news/206900 37

15

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

February 28, 2020 – An expert in the Health Affairs of the Beheshti University reported, "We have at least 50,000 to 100,000 people infected with the coronavirus. Of course, my estimate is much higher than that."

Jahan San’at daily, March 9, 2020 - Farhad Lahouti Parliament Deputy from Gilan: A huge number of people are dying and we should not be relieved with the state’s official figures, because those figures are not real. Our death toll is much higher than the Ministry of Health’s figures. The situation in Gilan province is red. Unless the flow of immigration into the province is restricted, we will face a fatal catastrophe. We must not forget that our doctors have no masks and gloves and they are dying because of a lack of facilities. At present, many specialist doctors and medical staff in the province refuse to work. These people have all the rights to do so, because there are no specialized facilities like oxygen and medicine in the province39.

The tweet of Mustafa Faghihi, of "Entekhab" website, dated 9 March 2020: “The number of coronavirus deaths is 2,000. More than 130 people have died in Tehran and Gilan yesterday alone.

News from inside Iran: A Rasht lawmaker in parliament, February 29, 20: People are just dying in the villages and are buried, and there are no doctors.

No home is left in Rasht now where there is no quarantined patient. All my relatives and closes friends also have a patient in their home 5.1 Prospects Entekhab daily, March 5, 2020: Dr. Masoud Mardani, an infectious disease specialist and a member of the National Influenza Committee: "The coronavirus is highly circulating and we estimate that as one person can infect four people at the same time, our estimation is that 30-40% of Tehran's population will be infected with coronavirus by March 20. " According to recent statistics, the population of Tehran Province is 12 to 13 million."

Anatoly News Agency quoting IRNA (Iran's state news agency), 7 March 2020: Dr. Minoo Mohraz, a member of the Ministry of Health's contagious diseases prevention committee, said: "We are now in the epidemic phase of the coronavirus disease in the country and it is the nature of the epidemic that at least 40% of the community gets the virus. The forecast is that we will continue to see an upward trend in the next two to three weeks, followed by a downward trend afterwards.”40

39 40

https://jahanesanat.ir/?p=38694 https://bit.ly/38tbYJS

16

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY

The Washington Post editorial, March 4, 2020: "Iran's reaction to Coronavirus has become a danger for the world".

Fararoo website, 4 March 2020: This is the most profound crisis Iranian society has faced in the recent decades. Of course, we are facing this crisis at the worst situation in terms of our management capabilities. On the one hand, the intra-structural divide has made this management extremely inefficient, and its financial resources are severely limited; and on the other hand its external relations are in serious trouble. Contrary to their initial approach, the Ministry of Health and the authorities have to take the matter more seriously and have a supernatural image of coronavirus in their minds so they can fight it.41 5.2 Status of prisons A very concerning aspect of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran that has drawn less attention is the critical situation in the prisons, especially political prisons.

National Council of Resistance of Iran, March 2, 2020: Reports from different prisons in Iran indicate that coronavirus infection has spread uncontrollably in the Greater Tehran Prison (Fashafuyeh), as well as in the prisons in Gohardasht, Qezel-Hesar, Markazi Karaj, Urmia, Shiba- Ahvaz, and Kashan. The high number of prisoners and the lack of minimum hygienic facilities have accelerated the spread of the virus. The prisoners are banned from having masks and disinfectants. There is no soap or cleaning materials in prisons. Political prisoner Amir Hossein Moradi, who was sentenced to death for taking part in the November 2019 uprising, have been infected. Two political prisoners in Karaj’s Rajai-shahr prison have been infected by the virus and transferred to the prison quarantine. No information is available about them.

In Urmia prison, at least one prisoner has died due to coronavirus and five other infected prisoners have been transferred to medical centers. Some prisoners have been infected in Evin, Qezel-Hesar, and Kashan prisons, but they are kept among other prisoners without quarantine.

6. Conclusion and opinion  

41

Coronavirus was brought into Iran from Wuhan city through flights by Mahan Airlines (affiliated with the IRGC). Qom was the first Iranian city infected with this virus.

The spread of the coronavirus across Iran could have been prevented in the initial stages. The main factor that contributed to the virus’ expansion was the decision not to quarantine the city of Qom due to lobbying by regime clerics and lack of notifications to the public due to regime’s political considerations.

https://fararu.com/fa/news/431786/%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA

17

CORONAVIRUS SPREAD IN IRAN – SITUATION STUDY









Hiding the truth about the outbreak of this disease in Iran was motivated by the regime’s intent to secure a high turnout in the week of 11 February marking the anniversary of the 1979 revolution. The regime’s second objective was to prevent any blow to turnout in the parliamentary election. Therefore, the Iranian regime decided to cover up the realities related to the coronavirus, which resulted in a full-scale crisis as the people were kept in the dark.

Due to hoarding of tens of millions of masks and other supplies necessary to prevent and cope with this disease, as well as non-distribution of existing supplies, medical centers are suffering from lack of necessary supplies to deal with this catastrophe.

Political considerations override medical and professional considerations in the regime’s handling of this crisis. Gross mismanagement of the crisis is very evident. The Iranian regime continues to refrain from stating the true dimensions of the tragedy or provide true statistics of those infected or those who have died.

Political considerations, corruption, hoarding, negligence, and mismanagement have now subjected our people and our country to a major human catastrophe that threatens our nation. Regime experts are talking about the possibility of hundreds of thousands of human casualties.

Official Coronavirus figures in Iran

18