Buy.Sell.Stay. March 2016 Market Report Wine Country
Š 2016 Intero Real Estate Services, Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway Affiliate and wholly owned subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc. All rights reserve. The logo is a registered trademark of Intero Real Estate Services, Inc. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended as a solicitation if you are listed with another broker. Data Provided by Trendgraphix April 2016
Executive Insights Spring Supply Vs. Demand Home seekers from San Francisco down to the South Bay came out strong in March following the typical winter slowdown in the real-estate sector and should see increased opportunities to purchase a single-family house in the next few weeks. Still, robust demand and high home prices overall leave no doubt about the region remaining a seller’s market. Many people are wanting to buy as evidenced by significant activity and interest at open houses, but not enough product is available to go around even as inventory has improved. For most of the region, March saw a rise in both the number of sale listings and property sold, compared to the previous month. For instance, the Mid Peninsula (Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Palo Alto, Atherton, Menlo Park and Woodside) experienced a 3 percent rise in listings and 104 percent jump in sales. Silicon Valley (Cupertino, Los Gatos, Mountain View, San Jose, Saratoga and Sunnyvale) was up 18 percent in listings and 62 percent in sales. Generally, March and April bring the largest amount of listings, but the activity heading into this spring seems to have ratcheted up even more so partly because buyers have become increasingly sophisticated with the use of automated search programs that immediately alert them to an available house. Year-over-year, though, property sales were down across the region. They decreased 20 percent in San Francisco; 54 percent in the North Peninsula (Belmont, Burlingame, Foster City, Hillsborough, Redwood City, San Carlos and San Mateo); and 13 percent both in the Mid Peninsula and Silicon Valley. That year-to-year slide could be attributed to supply still struggling to keep up with demand. If more property is available, then the number of sales would be up. Compared to a year ago, the region’s inventory did show an uptick overall (20 percent in San Francisco and 6 percent in Silicon Valley, for example) - a good trend for buyers who have been waiting a while to make a purchase. In particular, the inventory of upper-priced houses in parts of the Peninsula and Silicon Valley has gone up, and buyers should soon see the selection expand even more as Intero agents are increasingly hearing from those ready to sell. Home inspectors and stagers are also getting backlogged for their services, indicating that more product will become available in the immediate future. However, prices have surged as well. The median sold price in March was up 15 percent from a year ago in both San Francisco and Silicon Valley to $1.3 million and $1.1 million, respectively. It was up 3 percent to nearly $1.6 million in the North Peninsula but down about the same percentage, albeit still pricey, to $2.7 million in the Mid Peninsula. If a house is at a super-premium price of $2.5 million or more, fewer people can buy. But at the lower price ranges, many people are competing to get into a place. To be successful, buyers need to work with their agent to write as clean an offer as they are comfortable and have a pre-approved loan ready. They could also write a letter to the seller about a little of themselves and their family and the reasons why they want the house for sale. Establishing an emotional connection with the seller could prove a tipping point. In addition, if a house has been on the market for a while, that probably indicates it is overpriced. So buyers should not be afraid to give an offer that is below asking price. Indeed, there can be quite a gap between the listing price and how much a buyer actually ends up paying for a property. Take the North Peninsula, where the average for-sale price in March was $3.6 million (up 43 percent from last year) but the average sold price was $1.9 million (up 13 percent).
Market Highlights Wine Country
Total Homes for Sale
72
Luxury Homes for Sale*
8
*Homes for sale above $3 million.
Total Homes Sold
Average Days on Market
Average List Price
Average Sold Price
33
$1,630,000
61
$853,000
Inventory Wine Country
Total Number Of Homes:
For Sale
Sold
82
89
91
68
70
55
33 20
24
27
29
18
24
20
32
33
30
39
41
46
50
48
40
10
55
58 48
57
59
60 50
72
76
84
80
87
93
90
89
100
0 15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr 15-May 15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug 15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov 15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
16-Mar
It is a Seller’s Market Property Sales (Sold) March property sales were 33, the same as in March of 2015 and 65% higher than the 20 sales last month. Current Inventory (For Sale) Versus last year, the total number of homes available this month is lower by 4 units of 5.3%. This year’s smaller inventory means that buyers who waited to buy may have smaller selection to choose from. The number of current inventory is up 30.9% compared to the previous month. Property Under Contract (Pended) There was an increase of 42.9% in the pended properties in March, with 40 properties versus 28 last month. This month’s pended property sales were 23.1% lower than at this time last year.
Inventory By The Numbers Home Price Range
Homes For Sale
Year Over Year % Difference
< $500K
8
-53%
$500K $1M
27
23%
$1M - $3M
64
22.70%
$3M - $5M
6
100%
$5M - $10M
1
0%
$10M +
1
-66.70%
Pricing Wine Country
Average Prices in $,000:
2500
Sold Price
$2,265 $2,078
2000
For Sale Price
$1,844
$1,978
$2,070
$2,012
$1,904
$2,059 $2,048
$1,999
$1,962 $1,800
$1,774
$1,621 $1,630
1500
1000 $823
500
$643
$769
$851
$960
$942
$1,205
$1,076
$983
$919
$974
$860
$1,029 $707
$853
0 15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
16-Mar
The Average For Sale Price is Neutral The Average For Sale Price in March was $1,630,000, down 17.6% from $1,978,000 in March of 2015 and up 0.6% from $1,621,000 last month. The Average Sold Price is Neutral The Average Sold Price in March was $853,000, up 10.9% from $769,000 in March of 2015 and up 20.7% from $707,000 last month.
Pricing By The Numbers
The Median Sold Price is Depreciating The Median Sold Price in March was $631,000, up 12.9% from $559,000 in March of 2015 and down 0.3% from $633,000 last month.
Average Price Per Square Foot.
$502
12.4% Month over Month
On The Market Wine Country
Average Days On Market
90 80
77
77 64
70
67
61
60
58
53
56
59
71
65
72
68 61
46
50 40 30 20 10 0 15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
15-Jun
15-Jul
15-Aug
15-Sep
15-Oct
15-Nov
15-Dec
16-Jan
16-Feb
16-Mar
The Days on Market Shows Downward Trend The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM trends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Sellerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s market. The DOM for March 2016 was 61, down 10.3% from 68 days last month and down 4.7% from 64 days in March of last year.
DOM By The Numbers Home Price Range
Days on Market
Year Over Year % Difference
< $500K
80
-11%
$500K $1M
64
31%
$1M - $3M
502
31%
$3M - $5M
25
100%
$5M - $10M
0
NA
$10M +
0
NA