Expat Housing Market 2014

M

EXPAT HOUSING REVIEW M 2013: Review & Conclusions 2014: Tendencies & Forecast

SUPPLY Supply has grown in 2013 by 27% - which is a new and positive trend compared to 2012, when it has shown a decrease of 34%. Budget and room structure of supply remained similar to last year, whereas there are different dynamics in supply in different areas.

Overall supply figures for 2013 show an optimistic 27% of increase in available properties – which is good news after the alarming 34% decrease last year. At the same time supply is still considerably below the level of 2009-2011 which results in shortage of quality properties, particularly of larger size and in the most popular areas.

The growth of supply in 2013 is also influenced to a large extent by newly built residential complexes in Moscow city – some small and medium sized investors have entered the market with a significant number of rental properties of various sizes in these complexes.

Supply of properties for rent: 2009-2013 Diagram 1.1 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%

I II III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII

2009

2011

2010

2012

2013

Property supply: areas Territorial structure of supply in the residential rental market of Moscow (high-budget segment), December 2013 Diagram 1.2 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2012

Arbat-Kropotkinskaya Leninsky Prospect Tverskaya-Kremlin Leningradsky Prospect Zamoskvorechye Lubyanka-Kitay-Gorod Krasnopresnenskaya Kutuzovsky Prospect Patriarshie Prudy Kuntsevo Tsvetnoy Boulevard Others

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2013

Average rental rate Asking prices in 2013 have been quite stable with an annual increase of 8% compared to 2012.

Dynamics of asking prices, 2011-2013 Diagram 1.3 $ 8 500 $ 8 000 $ 7 500 $ 7 000 $ 6 500 $ 6 000

I

II III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII

I

2011

II

III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII I

II III IV V VI VIIVIII IX X XI XII

2012

2013

Analysis of supply – number of bedrooms Supply analysis of the high-budget segment of the residential rental market in Moscow in terms of number of rooms, December 2013 Diagram 1.4

2013

2012 7.1% 4+ bedroom 13.5% 4 bedroom

0.5% studio

1.8% studio 19% 1 bedroom

6.6% 4+ bedroom 9.7% 4 bedroom

27.9% 3 bedroom

16.8% 1 bedroom

38.4% 2 bedroom

19% 3 bedroom 40% 2 bedroom

Reasons for low supply of large apartments in Moscow •

Historically in Moscow there is a huge shortage of large apartments – this connected with the Soviet part of history when people were just not supposed to live in apartments larger than 70 sq.m. and 2 bedroom. Since 20 years of real estate market evolution developers started to build more larger apartments but the disproportion is still there.

•

Another reason that large apartments are low in supply is that despite high rental prices sale prices are even higher – and investment income is not that high – 3-5% annually. For comparison inflation rate is circa 10%, and bank interest for sum of money equivalent to price of Moscow apartment – 8-10%. This is why there are few professional landlords on the Moscow – mostly people rent apartments they do not live in because they do not want to sell for some reason.

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Analysis of supply – rental budget Supply analysis of the high-budget segment of the residential rental market in Moscow in terms of rental budget, December 2013 Diagram 1.5

2012

2013

6.8% $15000

28.2% $4000

9% $15000 28% $4000

14.4% $10000 - $15000

12% $10000 - $15000 11% $8000 - $10000

11.9% $8000 - $10000

21.4% $4000 - $6000

17.3% $6000 - $8000

15% $6000 - $8000

25% $4000 - $6000

DEMAND Overall demand in 2013 has remained at the same level as in 2012 – with a marginal 4% decrease. It has been characterized by regular seasonal peaks connected with the school calendar – with most active months in April, July and September – period when most families are relocating due to the end/beginning of the school year.

Main changes in tenant profile in 2013 – more international assignees and more families with children are relocating to Moscow.

2013 – for the first time in the past 4 years – has seen actual growth of the expatriate population coming into Russia vs. local hires and Russians. This year overall figures are 70% vs. 30% respectively.

Another new trend of 2013: companies resumed hiring and bringing to Russia new top and high level managers.

Majority of these were accompanied by their families with children vs. single moves. In figures: 42% vs. 58% respectively, which accounts for 12% growth in family moves.

The same tendency – more families with children looking for larger apartments/houses which in the Russian market are typically unfurnished – accounts for growth in the demand for unfurnished accommodation. At the same time due to high import duties overall the demand for unfurnished properties is still low – only 14% vs. 86% demand for furnished accommodation.

Structure of demand – tenant profile Diagram 2.1

66%

2013

34%

60%

2012

40%

65%

International Assignee

2011

Russian/ CIS

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35%

Diagram 2.2

58%

2013

42%

70%

2012

30%

60%

Single/Couples without children

Families with children

2011

40%

Diagram 2.3

89%

2013

14%

86%

2012

11%

80%

Furnished

2011

20%

Unfurnished

Structure of demand – number of bedrooms The structure of demand in 2013 clearly correlates with the changes in the tenant profile and the growth in number of assignees relocating with families. Demand for smaller and less expensive properties have decreased, the demand for larger and consequently more expensive apartments has increased compared to last year.

By the end of 2013, the average budget of rental apartment requested by a prospective tenant amounted to $7000 , which is 19% higher than in 2012 ($5900).

Demand analysis of the high-budget segment of the residential rental market in Moscow in terms of number of rooms, January-December 2013 Diagram 2.4

2012 10% 4+ bedroom

2013 3% studio

4% 4+ bedroom

7% studio

14% 4 bedroom

17% 1 bedroom

22% 1 bedroom 28% 4 bedroom

26% 2 bedroom

21% 3 bedroom 32% 2 bedroom

16% 3 bedroom

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Supply-demand correlation- number of rooms Chart 2.1

Number of Bedrooms

Supply

Demand

1%

7%

1 Bedroom

17%

22%

2 Bedroom

38%

32%

3 Bedroom

28%

21%

4 Bedroom

10%

14%

6%

4%

Studio

4+ Bedroom

Structure of demand – areas Potential tenants have not changed their preferences in 2013 – the most popular areas are still either downtown (Arbat-Kropotkinksaya and Tverskaya) or around international schools (Leningradsky prospect).

Demand analysis of the high-budget segment of the residential rental market in Moscow in terms of number of rooms, December 2013 Diagram 2.5 2012

Arbat-Kropotkinskaya Leningradskiy boulevard Tverskaya-Kremlin Zamoskvorechye Other Lubyanka-Kitay-Gorod Krasnopresnenskaya 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Supply-demand correlation (most popular areas) Chart 2.2

Area

Supply

Demand

Arbat-Kropotkinskaya

20%

17%

Lubyanka-Kitay-Gorod

10%

7%

9%

9%

10%

13%

Leningradsky Prospect

9%

12%

Leninsky Prospect

11%

6%

Kuntsevo

5%

1%

Krasnopresnenskaya

7%

7%

Patriarshie Prudy

5%

5%

Kutuzovsky Prospect

4%

3%

Frunzenskaya

2%

4%

Zamoskvorechye Tverskaya-Kremlin

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2013

Structure of demand – rental budget Demand analysis of the high-budget segment of the residential rental market in Moscow in terms of rental budget, January-December 2013 Diagram 2.6

2013

2012

7.7% $15000 37.9% $4000

53.1% $4000

11.8% $8000 - $10000

18.2% $4000 - $6000

10.8% $6000 - $8000

4.0% $15000 6.4% $10000 - $15000

7.5% $8000 - $10000

9.1% $10000 - $15000

20.5% $4000 - $6000

13% $6000 - $8000

Supply-demand correlation Chart 2.3

Supply

Demand

< 4000

28%

37%

4000–6000

25%

21%

6000–8000

15%

13%

8000–10000

11%

9%

10000–15000

12%

12%

> 15000

9%

8%

Price USD

Rental rates and budgets Though smaller properties in the budget below $4000 still take the majority of demand volume - 38% - it is 10% less than last year. At the same time the demand for larger properties in the budget over $10000 has increased by 9% compared to 2013.

By the end of 2013, the average budget of renting an apartment, requested by a prospective tenant amounted to $7000 per unit per month, which is 19% higher than in 2012 (January-November 2012 - $5900).

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Analysis of average asking prices/Number of bedroom/Class

Chart 2.4

Area

Arbat/Kropotkinskaya, Patriarshy Ponds, Tverskaya, Lubyanka/Kitay-Gorod, Zamoskvorechie

Close to International schools (Leningrasky prospect, Kuntsevo)

Business class

Elite class

Premium class (unique properties)

Business class

Elite class

Premium class (unique properties)

2 bedroom

$2500–$4000

$3500–$5000

$6000–$8000

$2500–$3000

$3000–$4500

$4500–$5500

3 bedroom

$4000–$5500

$5000–$8000

$9000–$12000

$3500–$5000

$4000–$5500

$6000–$10000

4 bedroom

$7000–$9000

$8000–$12000 $15000–$23000 $4500–$8000

5+ bedroom

$8000-$10000 $12000–$17000 $17000–$30000 $8000-$10000 $12000–$17000 $17000–$30000

Description Studio

$6000–$11000 $12000–$20000

Business class

Apartments in pre-revolutionary, Stalin-period or ministerial buildings. Clean secure entrance with concierge or quality intercom arrangement. Quality renovation with the use of standard renovation materials (not designer renovation), in many cases furnished in IKEA style/quality.

Elite class

Apartments in pre-revolutionary renovated bulidings or new buildings. Presentable entrance with high quality renovation and concierge or security, in most cases the building has underground or enclosed parking. Apartments with high quality designer renovation, furniture and appliances.

Premium class (unique properties)

Apartments in new premium class buildings - mostly "club buildings" - premium quality designer entrance renovation, underground parking, high multi-level security. The apartments have renovation of high quality, furniture and appliances of top brands, very often unique features like size of more than 300 sq.m., terraces.

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International compounds The prices of houses in main international compounds which remained stable in 2012, have grown by 5% on average by the end of 2013/beginning of 2014. Prices for most popular types of houses (which have the waiting list of potential tenants) have increased by 8-10%.

The availability of houses in the compounds is still very seasonal â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the largest supply of houses in compounds is in summer during the school break â&#x20AC;&#x201C; when families with children leave Moscow and terminate their leases in compounds.

Chart 2.5

Compound Pokrovsky Hills Tver-1 Tver-3 Suzdal-1 Suzdal-2.3 Novgorod-1 Novgorod-2.3 Yaroslavl-2.3 Rosinka Business Executive Family Family Deluxe Family + Country Country Deluxe Presidential Presidential Deluxe Presidential Deluxe (Mitishi) Ambassador Stand alone house 1901 Serebryany Bor

House Type

# of Bedroom

# of Bathroom

Size, sq. m

Rent 2012 ($)

Town-House

3

2.5

160

13 000

Town-House Town-House Town-House Town-House Town-House Town-House

3

2.5

209

16 000

3

2.5

200

14 000

3

2.5

212

18 500

+4% +5%

4

2.5

215

19 000

+3%

4

2.5

220

20 500

+8%

5

3.5

340

24 200

+1%

Town-House

2

2

130

8 000

+7%

3

2.5

151

10 000

0%

4

2.5

222

13 000

0%

4

2.5

240

14 000

0%

4

2.5

240

13 500

-

5

4.5

266

14 500

0%

5

4.5

302

16 000

+3%

5

4.5

292

15 500

0%

5

4.5

326

16 500

0%

7

4.5

400

18 000

-11%

5

5

345

20 000

-

House

4

2.5

178

13600

+5%

House House

4

3.5

182

14200

+9%

5

280

17000

+1%

Town-House Town-House Town-House Town-House Town-House Town-House Town-House Town-House House

4-5

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Rent vs.

2011 +8% +10%

2013 – MAIN TENDENCIES AND RESULTS Demand for high-end rental properties has remained at the same level as in 2012.

After several years of decrease supply has demonstrated 27 % growth.

Average asking prices have increased by 8 %.

Important changes in tenant profile – more international assignees and more families.

Changes in tenant profile lead to more demand for larger properties.

Average housing budgets increased by 19 %.

Same Top 3 most popular areas: 1.

Arbat (downtown)

2.

Leningradsky prospect (area of international schools)

3.

Tverskaya (downtown)

FORECAST FOR 2014 AND RECOMMENDATIONS The market will be greatly influenced by the current devaluation of Russian local currency (ruble).

- Landlords are likely to start calculating rent in euros or dollars. In theory this should lead to decrease of dollar prices. In reality in most cases when re-calculating the ruble amount in dollars/euros landlords wlll base their calculations on the most favourable exchange rate for them.

- If company allowances are set in rubles this may have to be significantly reviewed so they could correlate to their value in 2013.

The change of tenant profile in 2013 – prevailing families vs. singles – has affected the availability of larger properties. 2014 will witness price increase for this type of housing and shortage of availability. Typical example: housing compounds that increased their prices and have waiting lists even before the school year start.

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ATTACHMENT - MOSCOW HOUSING MARKET Moscow has very clear distinction of which areas are considered to be “prestigious” – they are well developed in terms of infrastructure, supply of good quality housing compounds, they are also considered to be more ecologically clean.

Thus, business centres (with a few exceptions of business parks outside of Moscow) and international schools / prestigious Russian schools would be located in these areas.

Naturally, international assignees and high-profile Russian customers only rent properties in these areas with practically no exceptions.

Apart from the historical city centre (inside the Garden ring, Kransnopresneskaya, Frunzenskaya) such areas are located from the South to the North. South-East and North-East – practically half of Moscow in terms of territory – are not considered by international assignees and high-profile Russian customers, consequently in the current report we do not include properties in the East of Moscow into the analysis.

This is another reason why supply in the “prestigious” centre, South, West and North-West is quite low. Also this explains why the data in this report maybe significantly different from the reports of most Moscow real companies.

MKAD – Moscow Circular Automobile Highway Sadovoe Koltso (Garden Ring) Leningradskoe shosse Kutuzovsky prospect Rublevskoe shosse Leninsky prospect

The Kremlin Airports International Schools Main Compaunds

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Marina Semenova Client Services Director, Shareholder Relocation & Immigration Services m.semenova@intermarkrelocation.ru

Irina Yakimenko Director, Shareholder Relocation & Immigration Services i.yakimenko@intermarkrelocation.ru

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