Making deciosions to reach your goal

Intentional Decision Making Making Decisions to Reach Your Goals

Agnes Vishnevkin, MBA

decisions

How do we make them?

What tools can we use to do better?

MAKING DECISIONS • Past • What happened?

• How did you think and feel about it?

• Future • What do you want?

• Experiment with different futures • Present • Make decisions to move toward Future

MAKING DECISIONS What is a good decision?

• Depends on how decision was made • Use probability to make better decision

How does our mind work?

System 1

System 2

Intentional

Autopilot

How does our mind work?

System 1

System 2 Intentional

Autopilot

Subconscious Automatic Fast Intuitive Emotional

Conscious Mindful Slow Reasoning Logical

How does our mind work?

System 1

System 2

Autopilot Intentional

Automatic thoughts & feelings Subconscious beliefs & assumptions Habits

Choosing to pay attention Our sense of Self

How does our mind work?

System 1

System 2

Intentional

Elephant Rider Autopilot

Elephant

How does our mind work?

System 1

System 2 Intentional

Uses a lot of energy Autopilot

Uses little energy Runs all the time

Runs in low-effort mode

How does our mind work?

System 2 is activated when‌

System 1 runs into difficulty Learning new information Awareness of potential for error

How does our mind work?

System 1 Autopilot

Usually makes good decisions Errors are often predictable: • emotional issues • assessing probabilities

System 2 Intentional

Can prevent System 1 errors Needs to be activated first Requires intentional focus

Predictable Errors Wishful thinking.

Planning Fallacy We intuitively assume that everything will go perfectly according to plan.

We often don’t plan for extra time and resources to be prepared for possibility of unforeseen events.

Predictable Errors Throwing good money after bad.

Sunk Cost Fallacy If we invested a lot into getting something, we tend to be reluctant to give it up.

Predictable Errors Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may die.

Hyperbolic Discounting We tend to prefer smaller payoffs now over larger payoffs later.

strategies Focus on Your Long-Term Goals Reframe Your Perspective • Ask Why? Ask Why Not? • Outside perspective • Be self-aware

strategies Future Scenario method • Think of what “might” happen in the future • How likely or unlikely are these possibilities?

• Focus on undesirable outcomes • What might cause them?

• How can you prepare?

resources Center for Applied Rationality www.cfar.org Columbus Rationality Facebook group http://ow.ly/vfBdO Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality www.hpmor.com Less Wrong www.lesswrong.com