Dr. Roy's Syngenta Presentation

IFDC

Research on the Next Generation of Fertilizers Amit Roy IFDC Presented at the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture Basel, Switzerland January 18, 2011

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The Essential Questions What

Why

Who

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Where

When

How

IFDC

The Essential Questions What

Why

Who

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Where

When

How

Who?

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IFDC

Who? The World’s Poor and Hungry

925 million people suffer from hunger.

That’s more people than live in the United States, Canada and the European Union combined.

Source: State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2008 FAO."Food Security Statistics"

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The Essential Questions What

Why

Who

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Where

When

How

Why? Resource Base and Productivity Land productivity hinges on nutrients, organic matter and water availability.

Essential nutrients required for plant growth are:

Nitrogen (N) Phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K) (organic or synthetic)

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IFDC

Why? Global Population Growth There will be more than 9 billion people living in the world by 2050.

Source: United Nations Estimates

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Why? Food Demand By 2050 dietary shifts will result in the consumption equivalent of about 11.5 billion people at 2009 diet levels.

FOOD DEMAND = 11.5 BILLION

POPULATION = 9 BILLION Source: United Nations Estimates

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Why? Lack of micronutrients: Affects more than half of world’s people Zinc, Iron and Boron

Fertilizers with micronutrients

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Why? Demand Growth 6000

millions of tons

5000

4000 3000

Developing 2000

Developed

1000 0 1989

2025

2050

Cereals

Source: UN Environment Program Estimates

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1989

2025

2050

Other Crops

1989

2025

2050

Animal Products

IFDC

Why? To meet demand, global food production must

increase by at least 70% by 2050 using less land and water resources without polluting the environment.

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Why? Factors Limiting Food Production Well-documented and predictable trends.

Available freshwater is in decline.

Arable land area is shrinking.

Marine harvests are dwindling.

Poor efficiency in plant uptake of applied nutrients Agricultural research is in decline worldwide.

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Why? Global Water Scarcity Available groundwater is in decline as aquifers are depleted.

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Why? Available Farmland The amount of arable land in 2050 will be less than today.

At least 30% land under cultivation.

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Why? Competing demand between crops for food and crops for biofuels also limits food supply

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Why? Feeding the World While Producing Biofuels Ethanol (Bgal)

Biodiesel (Bgal)

Source: FAPRI

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Why?

rea Area

Fertilizers Essential to Make Land More Productive

Yield

South Asia

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Yield

Sub-Saharan Africa

IFDC

Why?

Global NPK Consumption 2008/09 161.8 mmt Rest of The World

Asia

Nitrogen = 99.2 mmt Asia

Rest of

Latin A

Africa

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Why? Fertilizer Prices (FOB, bulk) Monthly Averages (January 2007–December 2010)

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IFDC

NITROGEN

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Why? Closer Look at Nitrogen (N) There are only 3 ways to “fix� Nitrogen into a form that can be used by plants.

Lightning and legumes account for a percentage of all nitrogen production.

Reactive nitrogen production comes from natural gas and coal conversion.

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Why? Urea production requires fossil fuels. equivalent of four barrels of oil to produce one ton of urea.

4-barrel energy equivalency equivalent

Urea = 46% Nitrogen

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Why? 2 out of 3 bags of urea go unused in wetland rice production

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Why? Grain Production and Nitrogen Use 1980-2007 40

China

35

30

30

25

25 20 20 15 15 10

10

5

5 0 1975 1975

1980 1980

1985 1985

1990 1990

1995 1995

Year Year Source: Guo et al., 2010

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2000 2000

2005 2005

0 2010 2010

million tons per year

kg Grain per kg N Applied

35

IFDC

Why? Grain Production and Nitrogen Use 1980-2007 35

India

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0 1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Year Source: Fertilizer Statistics 2007/08, FAI; http://dacnet.nic.ineamdsAt_Glance_2008/pcrops_new.html

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2000

2005

0 2010

million tons per year

kg Grain per kg N Applied

35

IFDC

PHOSPHORUS

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Why? Phosphorus Containing Fertilizers Are Produced from Mined Phosphate Rock A Non –Renewable Finite Resource

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Why? Total P2O5 • 82% for fertilizer production • 18% for industrial uses

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Why? Phosphate Losses Loss of Phosphate Rock Mining Bed too thin, not suitable Open pit Underground

100% 5-50% 15-35%

Approximate Loss of P2O5 (%) Beneficiation Southeast U.S. West U.S. South America North Africa West Africa Middle East

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40-80 30 40 30 Up to 60 30

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Why? Phosphates Phosphoric Acid

Diammonium Phosphates (DAP)

Phosphate Rock Sulfur (Sulfuric Acid)

Ammonia

Investment: US $0.5–$1.5 billion; Time: 3–4 Years

1 Ton Sulfur Produces ~ 2 Tons of DAP

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Debate on P Efficiency Efficiency = 90% by Balance Method1,2 Efficiency = 10-25% by Ag Efficiency Method3

1. J.K. Syers, A.E. Johnston and D. Curtin D (2008) Efficiency of soil and fertilizer phosphorus use. FAO Fertilizer and Plant Nutrition Bulletin 18, FAO, Rome, Italy.

2. A.E. Johnston (2001) Principles of Crop Nutrition for Sustainable Food Production. Proceedings International Fertilizer Society 450, 39 p.

(York).

3. S.H. Chien, L.I. Prochnow, S. Tu and C.S. Snyder (2001) Agronomic and environmental aspects of phosphate fertilizers varying in source and solubility: An update review, Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst (Published online).

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POTASSIUM

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Why?

Potassium-Containing Fertilizers Are Produced from Mined Potassium Salts A Non–Renewable, Finite Resource

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Why? Potash Potassium Chloride (Potash) Sylvanite or Carnallite Beneficiation Investment: US $11.2 billion; Time: 5 Years1

1Paul

Galloway, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd., estimated in an Aug. 23 report quoted in Bloomberg online on 9/14/10 regarding BHP Billiton’s proposed Jansen mine in Saskatchewan

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Why? Due to Dietary Changes Potash Consumption Will Increase Rapidly • •

Available Reserves are Large Cost of Opening New Mines is Extremely High

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The Cost of Doing Nothing

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Why? 1.

2.

“Do Nothing” – fertilizer NUE in cereals unchanged “NUE increased by 50%” in cereal crops by 2050

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Why? Impacts of 50% NUE Improvements (2011-2050) Do Nothing Scenario

NUE Increased Scenario

Savings Due to Increased NUE

Million Metric Tons (mmt)

1,281

817

464

Billion US $

1,114

710

403

Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalents

11

7

4

Million Metric Tons of CO2 Equivalents

2,689

1,715

974

Units Nitrogen Lost Cost of Lost Nitrogen Energy Used in Production of Lost Nitrogen Emissions of N2O-Nox Associated With Lost Nitrogen

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Why? Impact of NUE Improvements in Cereals (2011-2050) 

Decrease consumption of 464 mmt of fertilizer-N with a value of $403 billion – about 37 times the 2007 USA consumption.



Decrease consumption of 4 billion barrels of oil equivalents – about 13 months of USA 2007 motor gasoline consumption.



Decrease NO2-NOx gas emissions by the equivalent of 974 mmt of CO2 – equivalent of 187 million mid-sized cars off the road for one year in USA.

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Why? There is no market incentive to improve efficiency or technology.

Companies have invested in expensive production facilities to make the same product, the same way.

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Why? Industry Research and Development Spending The pharmaceutical and seed industries spend billions on R&D.

Pfizer, Glaxo, Merck ~ 16% of revenues are invested in R&D Syngenta, Monsanto ~ 9% of agribusiness revenues are invested in R&D

~ 0.01% of revenues in R&D for new products and new technologies

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The Essential Questions What

Why

Who

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When

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What?

A Global Initiative to Develop Next Generation of Fertilizers. 

Key areas of research – nitrogen and phosphate including organic waste and micronutrients



Modify/improve existing fertilizer products and technologies.



Develop/incorporate new fundamental concepts and methods of generating viable fertilizer products and technologies.



Develop/institutionalize a global approach to create, monitor and sustain a universal research agenda.

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The Essential Questions What

Why

Who

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When

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Where? 

Physical Location, Washington, D.C. with activities conducted by laboratories around the Globe



VFRC is a global initiative – ―Next Generation of Fertilizer Research.‖ 

R&D scientists at work around the world.



Through Internet and other technology will collaborate in a virtual environment.



Likewise, others involved in VRC effort will be located around the world.

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The Essential Questions What

Why

Who

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When

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When? 

The need exists today.



IFDC has been helping smallholder farmers and others in the agriculture value chain to improve their lives for 35 years.



USAID has seed funds to develop the VFRC “Proof of Concept.”



IFDC initiated the VFRC activities during 3Q 2009.

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The Essential Questions What

Why

Who

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When

How

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How? We must take a global approach

to solving this problem.

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How? Virtual Fertilizer Research Center  Managed by IFDC  Led by Global Advisory Committees 

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Research Network Structure External Solvers/Internal Solvers VFRC leadership sets boundaries and scope of work Direct solver-tosolver interaction to share ideas and resources Research collaboration Development collaboration IFDC Archives

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IFDC

VFRC Advisory Board 

Jimmy Cheek (Chairman) Chancellor, The University of Tennessee



Marco Ferroni Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture



Mark Huisenga Program Advisor, United States Agency for International Development



Assétou Kanouté Assistant Professor, Polytechnic Institute for Rural and Applied Research, University of Mali



Luc Maene Director General, International Fertilizer Industry Association



Peter McPherson President, Association of Public and Land-Grant Universities



Ruth Oniang’o Founder and Chair Board of Trustees, Rural Outreach Program, Kenya

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VFRC Advisory Board 

Rudy Rabbinge University Professor , The Waganingan University



RenfangShen Director General, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences



A. K. Singh Deputy Director General , Indian Council of Agricultural Research



Ajay Vashee President, Zambia National Farmers Union



Juergen Voegele Director, Agricultural and Rural Development Department, The World Bank



Prem Warrior Senior Program Officer, Science & Technology, Global Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

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Advisory Board Met Twice

 Inaugural

 Second

Meeting, May, 2010

Meeting, September, 2010

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Initial Results

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Nitrogen Research Efficiency Methods to increase N use efficiency: Size modification & placement—Urea deep placement (UDP) for rice:  Larger granules of urea (0.7-2.8 g) .  Placement below 9 cm of surface soils between 4 rice plants.  Improves efficiency and productivity.

Controlled Release Fertilizers—CRFs:  Types—Slightly soluble, coated, and inhibitors.  Existing CRFs not proven cost-effective for food crops in LDC.  Opportunities for research into nano-technologies and absorbed materials.

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Example: Urea Deep Placement Bangladesh 

Goal: 



To transfer the UDP technology to rice farmers

Partners: 

Public sector in Bangladesh:  Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture  Bangladesh Rice Research Institute

 

The private sector (e.g. small private entrepreneurs) IFDC

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Producing “large” urea granules in the village…

Prilled or granular urea

Briquettes bagged and sold to retailers or farmers near the village

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An Alternative Application Method To Increase Urea Use Efficiency In Flooded Rice Broadcasting urea

Less efficient (less grain/kg urea)

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Deep placing ―Guti‖ urea

More efficient (more grain / kg urea)

UDP Applicator Trials

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IFDC

Average Impact on Paddy Yiel Results from 80Average Upazillas Impact on Paddy Yield 





1/2 million hectare 46,000 mt of urea saved 350,000 mt of additional rice Tk 7,000- 9,500 additional farm income

9,000 8,000

8,000 6,432

6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

4,000 3,000

77 kg N/ha 125 kg N/ha

2,000

0 1,000 Broadcast

0

Deep Placement

Broadcast

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7,676

7,676

7,000 7,0006,432

(kg/ha)



9,000

Deep Placement

Paddy Yield (Kg/ha)

IFDC

Phosphate Research 

Estimate more definitive world reserves/resources.



Improve phosphorus uptake from direct P rock application.



Micro-grinding of P rock – alter its crystal structure – make it more reactive at lower cost.



Greenhouse evaluations of P fertilizers with soil amendments to reduce fixation.

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Research Initiatives World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources a report by Steven J. Van Kauwenbergh principal scientist, IFDC

IFDC

Why? 9 (U.S. Billion) Tons 109 (U.S. Billion) (Tonsxx10

350

IFDC Preliminary Resource Estimate 286

300

250 200 150

IFDC Preliminary Reserve Estimate (Product)

100

50

USGS (2010) Reserves 16

0

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60

Effect of P particle Size on Yield

Relative Yield Response

100

80 60 40

TSP P Rock (3 um)

20

P Rock (~30 um) 0 1

11

21

31

41

51

61

71

Relative P Rate (P2O5/ha) IFDC Phosphate Rock Expert System Report (Simulated): North Carolina, USA, Maize, pH 6.0, CEC 3.01 meq/100 g, P fixation 0, Corrected NAC 2nd 7.89, Rainfall 1761 mm.

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Summary Investing in the development of Next Generation Fertilizers will improve efficiency and productivity of agriculture while conserving natural resources and protecting the environment.

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Thank You Celebrating 35 Years