International Elections Study Center Algis Krupavičius 2014 Presidential Elections in the Republic of Lithuania: Candidates and Campaign Kaunas, 2014 1
Introduction In 2014, elections of the President of the Republic of Lithuania were held for the sixth time since the restoration of independence of the State. The idea of reestablishment of the institution of President was raised already back in 1989, and in the autumn of 1991 the then Head of Government, Prime Minister Gediminas Vagnorius stated that Lithuania needed a strong President, although the 1990 elections programme of Sąjūdis movement was clearly oriented towards a 1 parliamentary republic . The Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania (1992), the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on Presidential Elections (22 December 1992), and the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the President (25 January 1993) have made a legal basis for the establishment of the institution of the President. Article 78 of Chapter VI of the Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania lays down the following: “A Lithuanian citizen by descent, who has lived in Lithuania for not less than the last three years, if they have reached the age of not less than 40 prior to the election day, and if they may stand for election as a Member of the Seimas, may stand for election as President of the Republic.” This provision is repeated in Article 2 of the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on Presidential Elections. Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania also states that the same person may not be 2 elected President of the Republic for more than two consecutive terms. Candidates may be nominated by political parties and political organisations; individuals may also nominate themselves. A prospective candidate must pay an elections deposit worth five average monthly salaries (at least 40 days prior to the elections) and to collect signatures of at least 20,000 supporters of the presidential candidate. The President shall be elected for a fiveyear term by an absolute majority system (each voter has one vote). According to Article 81 of the Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania, “If less than half of all the voters participate in the election, the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes, but not less than 1/3 of the votes of all the voters, shall be deemed elected. If, during the first voting round, no single candidate gets the requisite number of votes, a repeat voting shall be held after two weeks, pitting the two candidates who received the greatest number of votes against each other. The candidate who receives more votes thereafter shall be deemed elected. If no more than two candidates take part in the first round, and neither of them receives the requisite number of votes, a repeat election shall be held.” The first direct presidential elections in the independent Lithuania were held on 14 February 1993. Two candidates participated in the elections: leader of the Democratic Labour Party of Lithuania (LDDP) Algirdas Mykolas Brazauskas, and Stasys Lozoraitis, backed by Sąjūdis. Algirdas Mykolas Brazauskas took a landslide victory already in the first round of the elections. Candidates 1
Matakas J. (1999) Rinkimai. Matakas J. (ed.) Šiuolaikinė valstybė. Kaunas, Technologija, page 112. Lietuvos Respublikos Konstitucija. Vilnius, Mintis, page 18.
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Legal regulation of the President of the Republic of Lithuania has retained a trait that is characteristic of a postSoviet State, i. e., in compliance with Article 3 of the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on Presidential Elections, candidates must provide information about their former relations with foreign special services: “After the Central Electoral Committee of the Republic of Lithuania (hereinafter referred to as the Central Electoral Committee) has adopted a decision to issue an individual, who nominates themselves, or is nominated, as a candidate for President of the Republic, with forms for the collection of voter signatures, they must, before they are registered as a candidate for President of the Republic, furnish the Central Electoral Committee with information about their work with the NKVD, NKGB, MGB, KGB of the USSR or other Soviet republics, as well as with other corresponding services (structures) of other foreign states, studying at schools of the aforementioned services (structures) or about collaboration with the aforementioned services (structures). An individual who nominates themselves, or is nominated, as a candidate for President of the Republic, shall enter this information into a questionnaire. The following data must be indicated in the questionnaire: name and subordination of the service (structure), individual’s office, title, class, rank and functions, time and place of work or studies, and awards. The Central Electoral Committee shall determine the form of a questionnaire. Data contained in the questionnaire shall be accessible to the public. If an individual who nominates themselves, or is nominated, as a candidate for President of the Republic, indicates the information specified in this Paragraph of the Article in a questionnaire, the Central Electoral Committee must publicise such questionnaire within 24 hours following the submission thereof.” The formal rules of registration of prospective presidential candidates are clear and simple. They have several steps, but the process takes place in two stages: that of a declaration to become a presidential candidate, and registration of a presidential candidate. The first stage comprises the following: a) prospective presidential candidates shall submit a written application to become candidates for the office of the President of the Republic to the Central Electoral Committee; where a presidential candidate has been nominated by a party, its decision must also be submitted in writing; b) a prospective presidential candidate must arrive in person to the Central Electoral Committee and submit a document attesting nationality of the Republic of Lithuania as well as a document proving the payment of an elections deposit worth five average monthly salaries, in accordance with the most recent publication of the amount of such average monthly salary, which is returned to the individual, who has paid it, after the elections, provided that, during the elections the prospective presidential candidate has received more than 7 per cent of the votes of those who voted in the elections; c) a prospective presidential candidate must submit the Central Electoral Committee a commitment, of a fixed form, to abide by a prohibition to buy voters or persons, who have a right to vote; d) each prospective presidential candidate must submit copies of the principle data from a declaration of personal income tax and a declaration of assets, approved by the State Tax Inspectorate, as well as a declaration of private interests; e) the Central Electoral Committee must verify, within 3 calendar days since the receipt of an application, whether there are any circumstances that could prevent a person from becoming a presidential candidate, and makes a reasoned decision to issue an individual with forms for the collection of voter signatures, with the name and surname of a prospective presidential candidate, or makes a reasoned decision to refuse to issue an individual with forms for the collection of voter signatures. In the second stage, registration of a presidential candidate takes place, where the Central Electoral Committee verifies, within 10 days since the receipt of forms with voter signatures, as to whether the forms have been duly filled in; and if, having eliminated the ineligible signatures, at least 3
20,000 voters have supported the prospective presidential candidate, the Central Electoral Committee must register, within 24 hours, the individual as candidate for the office of the President of the Republic. Provisions of Article 38 of the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on Presidential Elections prevent the Central Electoral Committee from making politically or otherwise motivated decisions not to register a candidate, whereby refusal by the Central Electoral Committee not to register a person as candidate for the office of the President of the Republic may be appealed against to the Supreme Administrative Court of Lithuania within 3 calendar days of the adoption of the decision, and the aforementioned Court must examine the appeal within 72 hours of its submission. Equal opportunities for candidates are guaranteed by Article 41 of the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on Presidential Elections, whereby, after the official publication of the list of candidates, the candidates to the office of President of the Republic shall have equal right to speak at voter meetings or at any other meetings, gatherings, or conferences, and to utilise state mass media and publicise their election programme. Also, upon candidate’s request, a candidate to the office of President of the Republic may be relieved from work or service duties for the period of no longer than 30 days; however, this provision is not applied for a candidate to the office of President of the Republic who is in the office of the President of the Republic or is a member of the Seimas, or is a member of the Government; the procedure for the exemption of their service duties is laid down by the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Government. Candidates to the office of President of the Republic also enjoy the right to immunity, for from the time the Central Electoral Committee announces the list of candidates to the office of President of the Republic until the administration of the oath of President of the Republic, candidates to the office of President of the Republic may not be found criminally responsible or arrested, nor their freedom may not be restricted by any other means, without the consent of the Central Electoral Committee. The lowest number of candidates to the office of President of the Republic was registered in the elections of 1993, with two candidates, Algirdas Mykolas Brazauskas and Stasys Lozoraitis participating (Table 1). The following elections, which were held in 19971998, demonstrated a different scenario in terms of the number of candidates, which grew to seven, although, following Algirdas Mykolas Brazauskas’s refusal to participate, an influential LDDP candidate was absent from the elections. Later on, LDDP made a decision to support the candidacy of Artūras Paulauskas. In the elections of 19971998, as many as three candidates were nonpartisan: Valdas Adamkus, Artūras Paulauskas, and Rolandas Pavilionis. It is precisely the independent candidates who made it to the second round of the elections: Valdas Adamkus and Artūras Paulauskas. Nevertheless, both candidates managed to secure the party support. Right from the beginning, Adamkus was backed by the Centre Union of Lithuania, and in the second round, by the majority of the centreright parties, except for liberals. Paulauskas first received support from LDDP and liberals, and later on from some other smaller centreleft parties. However, the role of parties was ambiguous during these presidential elections. On the one hand, the majority of the parties failed to find competitive candidates in their own ranks, while on the other, organisational and financial support from large parties was essential for the success of candidates. Yet another important element of the 19971998 elections was intense competition among the main candidates before the second round of the elections. It was reflected in the final results of the elections, when Adamkus won against Paulauskas by less than one per cent of votes, or slightly over 10,000 votes. In the elections of 2002, as many as seventeen candidates were nominated. To the large extent, the situation was determined by the inability of the parties to come to an agreement on their 4
support to several candidates, who could have a possibility to successfully compete in the elections. Negotiations on the nomination of a single centreleft presidential candidate by the governing coalition partners, the social democrats and the social liberals, failed, although almost 40 per cent of the electorate had expected that move. Table 1. Candidates in the presidential election in the Republic of Lithuania, 1993–2009 1993 Candidate
2004
2009
1997–1998
2002–2003
Partisan affiliation
Candidate
Partisan affiliation
Candidate
Partisan affiliation
Candidate
Partisan affiliation
Candidate
Algirdas Brazauskas
LDDP
Artūras Paulauskas
Independent
Valdas Adamk us
Independent
Valdas Adamkus
Independent
Dalia Grybauskaitė
Stasys Lozoraitis
Sąjūdis
Valdas Adamkus
Independent
Rolandas Paks as
Lithuanian LiberalDemocra tic Party (LLDP)
Kazimiera Danutė Prunskienė
Peasants and New Democratic Party (LVNDP)
Kazimiera Danutė Pru nskienė
Vytautas Landsbergis
Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS(LKD))
Artūras Paulau skas
New Union (Social Liberals) (NS(SL))
Petras Auštrevičius
Liberals’ Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LRLS)
Algirdas Butkevičius
Vytenis Andriukaitis
Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP)
Vytautas Šerė nas
Independent
Vilija Blinkevičiūtė
New Union (Social Liberals) (NS(SL))
Valentinas Mazuronis
Kazys Bobelis
Union of Christian Democrats (KDS)
Vytenis Povilas Andriu kaitis
Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP)
Česlovas Juršėnas
Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP)
Valdemar Tomaševski
Rolandas Pavilionis
Independent
Kazimiera Danutė Prunsk ienė
Peasants and New Democratic Party Union (VNDPS)
Loreta Graužinienė
Rimantas Smetona
Lithuanian Nationalist Union (LTS)
Juozas Edvardas Petra itis
Independent
Česlovas Jezerskas
Eugenijus Gent vilas
Liberal Union of Lithuania (LLS)
Julius Veselka
Independent
Algimantas Ma tulevičius
Independent / Liberal Union of Lithuania (LLS)
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Kazys Bobelis
Lithuanian Christian Democrats (LKD)
Vytautas Antanas Matul evičius
Independent
Kęstutis Glave ckas
Centre Union of Lithuania (LCS)
Vytautas Šusta uskas
Freedom Union of Lithuania (Lietuvos laisvės sąjunga)
Vytautas Berna tonis
Independent
Algirdas Pilveli s
Independent
Rimantas Jonas Dagys
Socialdemocracy 2000 (Socialdemokrati ja2000)
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In the elections of 2002, the strategy of social democrats and social liberals to hold the presidential and municipal council elections at the same time failed as well: both parties obtained the estimated number of mandates in the local elections, while both party candidates lost at the presidential elections. The inability of the most influential parties to unite their forces sent a signal to the small parties and independent candidates to actively participate in the elections. Peculiar situation developed in the Liberal Union of Lithuania, where two representatives thereof took part in the elections: Eugenijus Gentvilas, as a partysupported candidate, and Algimantas Matulevičius, as an independent candidate. Hence the 2002 elections to the office of the President of the Republic of 3 Lithuania were held after the French candidate surplus scenario . In the presidential elections of 20022003, voter turnout markedly declined and totalled 53.92 per cent, while in the elections of 1993 and 19971998, more than 70 per cent of voters cast their vote. The then President Valdas Adamkus and the Lithuanian LiberalDemocratic Party candidate Rolandas Paksas, who had gathered 35.3 per cent and 19.7 per cent of the votes respectively, passed to the second round. Valdas Adamkus’s results, to the large extent, corresponded to the forecasts done before the elections, while there were 10 per cent more of those who voted for Rolandas Paksas, as compared to the polls that had been conducted before the elections (in NovemberDecember 2002, 912 per cent of voters had expressed support for him). One of the key elements of the elections success of Rolandas Paksas was a particularly intense and aggressive elections campaign, which was directed against the candidates who were in power at the time. Due to this campaign, Rolandas Paksas won the second round of the elections. In 2004, early presidential elections were held in the Republic of Lithuania following the impeachment of President Rolandas Paksas, when the prestige of the institution of the President had declined significantly. Only 5 candidates took part in the elections: Valdas Adamkus, Petras Auštrevičius, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, Česlovas Juršėnas, and Kazimiera Prunskienė. All of them were wellknown in the political arena of Lithuania; while the Labour Party, which was gaining popularity at the time, and the Homeland Union did not nominate their candidates. In 2004, campaign in the early elections to the office of the President of the Republic of Lithuania was short, and voters were passive: voter turnout was only 48.4 per cent and 52.46 per cent in the first and the second round of the elections respectively. The elections were held with slogans for policy renewal, but it was former President Valdas Adamkus, who won the elections, although he was effectively, if rather unexpectedly, opposed by Kazimiera Prunskienė. Table 2. Candidates in the presidential election in the Republic of Lithuania, 2014 Candidate
Partisan affiliation
Dalia Grybauskaitė
Independent
Zigmantas Balčytis
Social Democratic Party of Lithuania
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In the 2002 presidential elections in France, as many as 17 candidates competed; the left parties lost, having failed to unite and consolidate their voters, hence opening the way in the second round for the extremeright candidate JeanMarie Le Pen.
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Artūras Paulauskas
Labour Party
Naglis Puteikis
Independent
Valdemar Tomaševski
Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania
Artūras Zuokas
Independent
Bronis Ropė
Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union
The regular presidential elections in Lithuania were held in 2009, when Lithuania and most European Union countries were engulfed in a deep financial and economic crisis, prompting the voters to opt for independent candidates, who were not in government, i.e. to turn to candidates with little previous political involvement in national political life, or who at least were not in the public spotlight. It was exactly why these candidates best fitted expectations of the people, and could claim for the role of the “new saviour” in the presidential post. Picture 1. Which Lithuanian public figures best represent your interests: Dalia Grybauskaitė (source: Vilmorus, 20012014)
The then European Commissioner Dalia Grybauskaitė, having been delegated to this position by the leader of the centreleft of the ruling coalition and then Prime Minister Algirdas Mykolas Brazauskas, almost perfectly matched the expectations of the economically and sociallyridden public, as a candidate with the experience of European practices and skills to cope with challenges. Her popularity rocketed, leaving all other nominees behind in the ratings. It is no coincidence that the 2009 Lithuanian presidential elections mainly had second echelonnominees, who basically stood no chance to overtake the frontrunner Dalia Grybauskaitė. In total, there were seven presidential candidates, primarily representing the centreleft parties that were in opposition at that time: the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP), the Labour Party, the Order and Justice Party, and the Lithuanian Peasant Popular Union. No centreright heavyweights – the Homeland UnionLithuanian Christian Democrats, the Liberal Union of the Republic of Lithuania, and the Liberal and Centre Union – submitted any presidential nominations and thus informally 8
turned to support Grybauskaitė, who claimed her nonpartisan and antiideological (neither left nor right, nor centrist) stance. Historically, the political division between the left and the right occurred in the times of the French Revolution (1789), when Baron de Gauville explained that those sitting to the right of the Chair of the National Assembly supported the King and the religion, while those to the left were for free governance or the revolution, in other words. In 17911792, the Legislative Assembly (Assemblée Législative) already had three political groups: the leftists, or innovators; the centrists, or moderates; and the rightists, or conscientious defenders of the old setting. The 2009 Lithuanian presidential elections were easy, because for the first time since 1993, or in four presidential elections, the frontrunner won an absolute majority of the vote in the first round of elections, thus making a runoff redundant. As a matter of fact, the voter turnout stood at 51.76 per cent, which was significantly lower compared to the 90s, with more than 70 per cent participation. In 2014, the Lithuanian presidential elections again (which has almost become a tradition) had no nominees from the main centreright parties – Homeland UnionLithuanian Christian Democrats and the Liberal Union of the Republic of Lithuania – which instead expressed their support to the incumbent runner, Dalia Grybauskaitė. The total number of candidates was the same as in 2009, i.e. seven. In fact, three from six presidential elections (1997, 2009, and 2014) had seven candidates running for the presidential office. However, following the presidential elections in 2002, when a possibility for the application of potential candidates appeared, their number was far beyond that of the registered candidates. For instance, in 2002, 17 applicants from 23 were registered as candidates; in 2004, 5 applicants from 10 were registered; in 2009, 7 from 14; and in 2014, again 7 from 12. In 2014, the challengers were Zigmantas Balčytis, Artūras Paulauskas, Naglis Puteikis, Valdemar Tomaševksi, Artūras Zuokas, and Bronius Ropė. The advantage of Dalia Grybauskaitė, as a candidate in reelection, was the fact that she was in the spotlight and enjoyed the availability of administrative resources, which she employed quite extensively. For example, the State of the Nation Address (5year performance report), drafted by the President’s Office, was used as her main highlight on the internet election page. The activities of her election staff and the Presidential Office’s activities were not clearly separated during the entire campaign. To tell the truth, the success of candidates in reelection is varied; for example in Portugal, all the candidates in presidential reelection have been successful since 1974, which has not been the case in the US, where only 15 out of the 42 were reelected, accounting for 36 per cent. As regards Lithuania, there were no reelections of incumbent presidents from the first direct elections in 1993 until 2014. Public opinion polls quite early revealed a few clear leaders in the presidential elections of 2014. The obvious favourite in the first round was Grybauskaitė as the first among equals, claiming for more than 40 per cent of the vote. Balčytis counted on the LSDP popularity, and was moderate in criticism of the incumbent President, which made him different from the other candidates. Artūras Paulauskas’s strength was his political experience (from a presidential candidate to the former Speaker of the Seimas and Acting President). Naglis Puteikis, as expected, was the main target of the protest vote and the electoral surprise. To win the first round, Grybauskaitė required two 9
factors: at least fifty per cent of the voter turnout in the elections and half or more votes of the Lithuanian citizens cast in her support. One of the distinctions of the Lithuanian presidential elections regarding the candidates was the participation of the socalled independent candidates. The prevailing and continuing distrust of political parties in the Lithuanian society have made even those candidates, who had clear partisan affiliation, to become “nonpartisan” in the presidential political campaign. “Nonpartisan” was the election strategy exploited by Grybauskaitė in 2014, supported by the Homeland UnionLithuanian Christian Democrats and the Liberal Union of the Republic of Lithuania, also used by Naglis Puteikis (who had left the Homeland UnionLithuanian Christian Democrats right before the presidential elections), and finally Artūras Zuokas, recently a leader of a few parties. Campaign An essential part of every election is political campaigning. The Lithuanian presidential election campaign is regulated in detail by the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on Presidential Elections and the Law on Funding of Political Campaigns and Control of Funding. Article 45 of the Law on Presidential Elections provides for different forms or manners of political campaigning, if they are not in conflict with the Constitution and laws, with the morals, justice or societal cohesion, or the principles of fair and respectable elections. Campaigning is prohibited during 30 hours before the beginning of an election, and on the polling day until the closing of voting, with the exception of permanent visual campaign material placed before the beginning of this election campaigning prohibition. The Law provides for all disputes relating to the election campaigning to be settled by the Central Electoral Commission. The 2014 Lithuanian presidential elections were marked by the following contextual factors in the domestic politics: overflowing and stable coalition of the left in the Parliament and the Government, crowned by the popularity of the LSDP and Prime Minister Butkevičius, and, paradoxically, the general decline of interest in politics as well as distrust of politicians and political institutions. There are no doubts that the presidential election campaign has been influenced by the international context, because the major constitutional power in foreign and security policy vests with the President. The most important international factor was the crisis in Ukraine, where the political elite was proUkrainian, but the public and the business were more divided on this issue. On the other hand, the international tensions prompted more frequent than usual public appearances of the President during her term in office, which, as a result, mobilized the supporters of the centreright parties. However, the international crisis has revealed the lack of coordination of the foreign and security policy between the President, the Government, and the Parliament, as well as de facto incapacity of the National Defence Council; but none of this dented the posture of President Dalia Grybauskaitė. Another contextual component of the election campaign was the social and economic environment. The preelection period was marked by a positive +3.3 per cent GDP increase in 2013 (but in 2013 GDP at constant prices was still lower; since in 2008 it stood at LTL 88.2 billion, compared to LTL 86.7 billion in 2013), actual income growth, low inflation, declining unemployment, 10.8 per cent in March 2014, to compare with the 10.5 per cent of EU average 10
(but youth unemployment was around 20 per cent), as well as the stabilization of emigration, although almost 300 thousand people had left the country. However, there were also causes for discontent, as about 70 per cent of the workforce were not happy with their salaries, retirement benefit was one of the lowest in the EU, the decline in household income during the crisis was one of the highest in the EU and it was not as yet restored to its previous level, social inequality remained high, and personal security in Lithuania remained as the most important value under the European Social Survey, and the majority of the public were against the euro adoption, planned for 2015. On the other hand, the protest vote potential was much lower in 2014, as compared to the presidential elections in 2009, and served more handy for the President in reelection than her challengers. What also mattered in the election campaign was the fact that there were two elections at the same time, i.e. national presidential elections and the European Parliament elections, when the latter was overshadowed by the former. The 2014 presidential election campaign was short in terms of time. The active part took just one month, which is more or less as provided for in the Law on Elections. Artūras Paulauskas had started his election campaign some time before the incumbent President. He was one of the most active candidates as regards direct meetings with voters. In her electoral campaign, President Dalia Grybauskaitė made extensive use of ceremonial events, which she attended in the capacity of the President of the Republic of Lithuania. On the other hand, after the first round, she took part in mass events in four major cities: Kaunas, Šiauliai, Klaipėda, and Vilnius. LSDP candidate Zigmantas Balčytis, whose party had a rather broad support across Lithuania, also had many direct meetings with voters. Balčytis was way ahead other rivals in the election campaign in terms of the intensity of outside advertising, which, in general, lately has not been considered as worthwhile, as well as in terms of the campaign budget. As regards the budget for elections, its efficient application is what matters most. Paulauskas was good at it. Balčytis and Paulauskas were most visible in printed and online media. Puteikis’ campaign was lowbudget, which largely restricted his campaigning efforts. TV political advertising was very scarce, and President Dalia Grybauskaitė’s TV advertising appeared only the last week of campaigning before the second round of elections. The most interesting example of the solution of video advertising was presented by Artūras Paulauskas, showing criticism to the President from former Speaker of the Parliament Irena Degutienė, and former Head of the Financial Crime Investigation Service Vitalijus Gailius. It has become a trend lately in Lithuania not to go into a deeper analysis of the political programmes of the candidates during the campaign. As a matter of fact, the presidential election campaign in 2014 basically saw none of this kind of analysis. No particular campaigning subjects were made to stand out. The 2014 presidential election campaign is basically seen as dull and sluggish, devoid of any highlights or gimmicks to grab the attention of the undecided voters. The media lacked an independent and objective analysis of the campaign. As K. H. Nassmacher notes, in newly democratizing countries the spotlight is on charismatic politicians, who are seen as essential for victory. In the short run this may be true, but in order to build sustainable competition among parties, other resources have to be available. Among 11
these prerequisites for party competition, three stand out as pillars, on which any party relies: 4 organization, volunteer labour, and money . This particularly applies to political parties, but also to the presidential election campaigns and their candidates. In presidential election campaign of 2014, shortterm tactical factors dominated while trying to exploit the charisma of the leading candidate.
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Nassmacher K. H. (2003) Introduction: Political Parties, Funding and Democracy. In Austin R., Tjernström M. (eds.) Funding of Political Parties and Election Campaigns. Stockholm, Trydells Tryckeri, p. 3.
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