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Coffman victory tied to incumbency, pollster says
VOLUME 34 • NUMBER 52 • NOVEMBER 17, 2016
TheVillagerNewspaper
@VillagerDenver
Serving Arapahoe County & Surrounding Communities
Hope for the future
6th District congressman defeated Carroll by 9 points U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman’s victory over challenger state Sen. Morgan Carroll by a healthy 9 percentage points can largely be attributed to the benefits of incumbency and name recognition, according to longtime Colorado pollster Floyd Cirulli. “Frankly, I can’t even imagine Democrats being able to mount anything other than a token race. He just seems impenetrable,” Cirulli said of the Republican’s decided victories in the last two congressional election cycles. “This year, it’s practically a blowout.” The incumbent’s clear wins have arguably flown in the face of the changing 6th Congressional District, which since redistricting out of Douglas County and into Democratic-leaning Aurora has become among the most targeted seats nationally by both political parties. Despite the purpling of a once Republican-safe district, Coffman, a four-term incumbent who succeeded firebrand Tom Tancredo, has safely defeated his two most recent post-redistricting
An unidentified woman listens intently during election night, Nov. 8. Photo by Tom Barry
Continued on page 2
Democratic statehouse victories withstand other losses Winner says moderate positions even attracted Trump voters Despite stinging losses in the presidential race and the 6th Congressional District, Democrats safely rebounded in two highly competitive local races for the Colorado Legislature. Democrats held onto state Senate District 26 and State House District 3, both of which have been hotly contested in recent years and have been the target of independent groups that bombard them each year with blistering, sometimes comical, attack mailers. State Rep. Daniel Kagan, the District 3 Democrat who was narrowly re-elected two years ago, has won the vacant District 26 seat by a comfortable
6 percentage points, defeating Arapahoe County Commissioner Nancy Doty, a popular Republican who had previously served as the county’s clerk and recorder. Meanwhile, Democratic newcomer Jeff Bridges took Kagan’s open former seat by a slimmer 4 percentage points, beating Cherry Hills Village City Councilmember Katy Brown, a Republican, in the similarly-swinging District 3. Kagan believes the two wins in overlapping districts can be attributed to hard work and the realization that western Arapahoe County is now purple with an edge for unaffiliated voters not tied to the Democratic or Republican platforms. “Both Jeff and I are thoughtful politicians who have the interests of Arapahoe County deeply at heart and are not trying to impose a far-left agenda
on the people of Colorado,” he said. Kagan also attributed his own success in part to his District 26 predecessor, outgoing Sen. Linda Newell, the Democrat who narrowly won the open seat in 2008 on the heels of the county’s thrust into purple on the coattails of President Obama’s first term. “I think Linda’s fine service to the district did demonstrate that voters can have more confidence than they might otherwise have had about a Democrat representing them,” Kagan said. “Linda showed and I showed this is not about Democrats going off the left end. We don’t do that in Colorado and that’s not what Coloradans want.” Solid Democratic victories came in Districts 3 and 26, even as state Sen. Morgan Carroll, DAurora, was defeated by some of the same electorate in the 6th
Congressional District. Democrat Kagan says his own moderation attracted Republicans who not only voted for Carroll’s opponent, U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, but also President-elect Donald Trump. “My voters who are Trump supporters voted for him in spite of [Trump’s more controversial] policy positions because they wanted change,” Kagan emphasized, saying many were seeking any change they could find. “In a storm, you don’t go to a ramshackle cabin with leaks in the roof because of the leaks in the roof. You go there because it’s better than being outside in the rain and lightning.” Senate District 26 and House District 3 have significant geographic crossover in and out of the 6th Congressional District. Both of the demographically Continued on page 2