Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Vacancy (April 2022)

April 2022

The Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics – Vacancy

• Small decrease in the economic vacancy rate

• Still decreasing vacancy rate for retail and industrial

• Unchanged vacancy rate for residential

• Small increase in vacancy for office

Small decrease in vacancy

Just like the last couple of quarters, the economic vacancy rate decreases again. Compared to last quarter, the vacancy has decreased with 0.1 percentage point. It means that the total economic vacancy rate is at 6.0 percent in April 2022. A year ago, in April 2021, the vacancy rate was 7.3 percent, which emphasises that there has been a positive development in the vacancy.

The decrease in the economic vacancy rate is especially a consequence of decrease in vacancy in both the retail and the industrial sector. Here, the vacancy decreases with 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to last quarter. Compared to the same time last year, it has decreased with 0.8 and 1.1 percentage points respectively. The positive development in both sectors means that the vacancy rate for retail is 7.3 percent in April 2022, while the vacancy rate for industrial is 9.6 percent.

Contrary to the vacancy for retail and industrial, the vacancy rate for office increases slightly. Since the last quarter, the office vacancy has increased with 0.1 percentage point. However, the vacancy rate for office has decreased with 0.8 percentage points compared to April 2021. The vacancy for office is thus 8.0 percent in this quarter. The residential vacancy is unchanged and it is 3.2 percent in this quarter. This is a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to the same time last year.

Figure 1. Economic vacancy rate, April 2022

Positive development is due to decrease in vacancy for retail and industrial.

Economic vacancy

The economic vacancy rate indicates how much of the rent is lost as a consequence of empty leases.

The term is defined as: The sum of current annual rent in all empty leases divided by the sum of current annual rent in both rented and empty leases.

Source: The Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics. Note.: The vacancy rates for all sectors also include actual annual rent and space for other commercial and secondary spaces.

Retail Industry Residential Other commercial Total

Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Vacancy, April 2022

Continuously decreasing retail vacancy

/ The retail vacancy was 8.1 percent a year ago. /

Lower vacancy rent and higher annual rent also have importance.

The retail vacancy has been increasing since last year. In April 2021, the retail vacancy was 8.1 percent, while in January 2022, it was 7.6 percent. Since then, the retail vacancy has decreased to 7.3 percent in this quarter. A deeper analysis of the decreasing vacancy shows that it is especially due to more empty shops being actually rented since last year. Apart form empty retail leases being rented, the decrease could also be a consequence of the fact that the vacancy rent is being depreciated or that the annual rent among the rented retail leases becomes higher.

The marginal importance of the empty which are being rented are, however, cancelled by the reverse effect of retail leases going from rented to vacant. The combination of a depreciation of the vacancy rent and a higher annual rent among rented retail leases, however, also has a large marginal importance for the decrease.

Larger retail leases have lower vacancy.

If you look at which kind of retail leases that may have had an impact on the development of the vacancy, it can be seen that retail leases above 300 m2 have had the lowest vacancy and have had so ever since 2019, as can be seen from figure 3. In April 2022, the vacancy for retail leases larger than 300 m2 is 5.0 percent. It means that the vacancy for the larger retail leases have decreased with 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points compared to the same time last year and last quarter. This is very similar to the development seen in the overall retail vacancy.

There is also an annual decrease in all other sizes. Here, it is the retail leases between 125 and 299 m2 which have had the largest decrease in vacancy with 1.6 percentage points,

Figure 2. Development in economic vacancy

Percent

Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics and own calculations based on data from IPD Danish Property Index and Ejendomstorvets Market Index.

Note.: Data from January 2014 and onwards is from the Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics. From 2001 to 2013, numbers from IPD Danish Property Index are processed based on differences in level in 2014. In 2000, office data from Ejendomstorvets Market Index is included. The calculation methods are not similar which is why there i a gap in data between October 2013 and January 2014. From January 2014, the calculation is quarterly, while it is annual before 2014. From 2014, the data used is more detailed.

which means that the vacancy among these leases is 11,4 percent in April 2022. Since the beginning of 2019, the vacancy for retail leases between 125 and 299 m2 have had an increasing tendency, but the reverse tendency began approx. a year ago. On a quarterly basis, it is unchanged.

The shops between 75 and 124 m2 have the largest vacancy rate of 12.5 percent in this quarter. That is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to last year, but an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to last quarter. The smallest leases below 75 m2 have had a more varied development since 2019, and in this quarter, the vacancy rate is 11.8 percent. Last quarter, the vacancy was 13.2 percent, which means that the smallest leases have had the largest quarterly decrease.

Decrease in vacancy for industrial continues

Just like the vacancy for retail, the vacancy for industrial has also been more or less decreasing since last year. Since April 2021, the vacancy for industrial has decreased with 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points since last quarter. It means that the vacancy is 9.6 percent in this quarter.

If the industrial leases are divided into sizes, it is primarily the larger leases that have the same development as the overall vacancy for industrial. Here, the vacancy is 5.3 percent in April 2022. The vacancy rate has decreased with 0.5 percentage points compared to last quarter and 1.3 percentage points since the same time last year. The larger industrial leases also have the lowest vacancy, cf. figure 4, while the smallest leases have the highest vacancy with 20.0 percent, where it is unchanged compared to last quarter, but has increased with 0.8 percentage points compared to April 2021. The medium-sized industrial leases have a vacancy of 12.2 percent and have decreased with 1.3 percentage points since last quarter. However, it has decreased with 0.4 percentage points since April 2021.

Annual decreases in vacancy for all sizes.

/ Larger industrial leases have lower vacancy. /

Figure 3. Development in vacancy for retail divided into sizes (2019-2022)

Figure 4. Development in vacancy for industrial divided into sizes (2019-2022)

Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Vacancy, April 2022

Office – Small increase

/ Low vacancy for office in North

In April 2022, the vacancy for office was at 0.8 percent, which is a small increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to last quarter. Compared to the same time last year, the office vacancy has decreased with 0.8 percentage points. The vacancy in this quarter is therefore 0.4 percentage points higher than the average from 2000-2022.

In the Capital Region, Zealand and Central Denmark, the office vacancy also increases. Here, it has increased with 0.1, 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to last quarter. The office vacancy is therefore 7.9, 11.9 and 7.6 percent respectively in the three regions. Contrary, the office vacancy has decreased in both the Region of Southern Denmark and North Denmark with 0.6 and 1.5 percentage points respectively. It means that the vacancy is 10.5 and 5.1 percent respectively in two regions. Thus, the lowest office vacancy is in the North Denmark Region. However, the office vacancy is highest in Region Zealand. However, there have been positive indicators, as the office vacancy has decreased with 3.8 percentage points compared to the same time last year. An annual decrease can also be seen in the other regions, as they have decreased between 0.2 and 2.5 percentage points compared to April 2021.

The relatively large decrease in North Denmark is due to larger decreases in both Aalborg and other North Denmark, where the office vacancy has decreased 1.2 and 1.7 percentage points respectively. Furthermore, it has decreased with 3.5 percentage points compared to the same time last year in Aalborg. It means that the office vacancy in Aalborg is 3.9 percent. It is the lowest rate among the other cities.

Economic vacancy rate

Table 1. Office

Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics.

/ Aalborg still has a lower vacancy.

Denmark. /

Retail - Still decrease in vacancy

In April 2022, the retail vacancy was 7.3 percent, which corresponds to a decrease of 0.3 percent compared to last quarter and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same time last year. The changes mean that the retail vacancy closes in on the average for 2000-2022. On average, the retail vacancy has been at 6.8 percent. During the corona crisis, the economic vacancy rate for retail peaked at 8.1 percent.

The continuous decrease in vacancy can also be seen in all regions. Here, the vacancy has decreased with between 0.2 and 0.9 percentage points compared to last quarter. The largest decrease is in the Region of Southern Denmark, where the office vacancy has gone from 9.5 percent in January 2022 to 8.6 percent in April 2022. At the same time, it is also a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to April 2021. Despite the positives, the Region of Southern Denmark is still the region with the highest retail vacancy. At the other end of the scale, the North Denmark Region has a vacancy of 6.3 percent. Here, the vacancy has decreased with 0.3 percentage points compared to last quarter, while it has increased with 1.1 percentage points compared to April 2021.

Despite the lower retail vacancy in North Denmark, Aalborg is not the city with the lowest vacancy. The vacancy is lower in both Odense and other City of Copenhagen, where it is 5.8 and 5.0 percent respectively after a quarterly decrease of 1.2 percentage points in both cities. It looks different in Central Copenhagen, where the retail vacancy is 8.6 percent – however, it has decreased with 0.6 percentage points compared to April 2021.

Table 2. Retail Economic vacancy rate

2022

Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics.

/ Still low retail vacancy in North Denmark. /

/ Lower retail vacancy outside Central Copenhagen. /

Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Vacancy, April 2022

Industry - Still decrease in vacancy

Since January 2022, the industrial vacancy has decreased in nearly all areas. On a national level, it has decreased with 0.5 percentage point, while it has decreased with 1.1 percentage points since April 2021. Thereby, the industrial vacancy is 9.6 percent in April 2022. That is 1.8 percentage points lower than the average for 2000-2022.

In all regions, the industrial vacancy decreases between 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points, except North Denmark, where it is unchanged. The Capital Region has the largest quarterly decrease with 0.6 percentage points. Despite the larger decrease, the industrial vacancy in the Capital Region is the highest among the regions with a vacancy rate of 12.5 percent. Compared to April 2021, it has decreased with 0.1 percentage point. The annual decrease is also seen in Region Zealand, South Denmark and Central Denmark, where the vacancy has decreased with 3.4, 4.0 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. In the North Denmark Region, the vacancy has, however, increased with 0.7 percentage points compared to April 2021. It means that the Region of Southern Denmark still has the lowest industrial vacancy among the regions.

The only quarterly increase can be seen in North Zealand, where there is a modest increase of 0.1 percentage point. The larger quarterly decreases can be seen in both Central Copenhagen and other Southern Denmark, where the industrial vacancy has decreased with 0.9 percentage points in both areas.

Economic vacancy rate

Table 3. Industry

/ Lowest industrial vacancy in the Region of Southern Denmark. /

Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics.

Residential - Unchanged vacancy

The demand for residences is still high, which can be seen from the continuously low residential vacancy. Since the last quarter, the residential vacancy has been unchanged. Compared to the same time last year, it has, however, decreased with 1.6 percentage points. It means that is at 3.2 percent in this quarter, which is 0.2 percentage point higher than the average of the period 2000-2022. It remains to be seen if the economic vacancy rate for residences is affected by the increasing inflation and interest rate.

In the regions, the development since last quarter has been different. Just as on a national level, the residential vacancy in the Region of Southern Denmark is unchanged compared to last quarter and thereby 3.3 percent in April 2022. However, it has decreased with 0.9 percentage points compared to April 2021. In the Capital Region and Zealand, there is a quarterly decrease of 0.1 percentage point and an annual decrease of 2.1 and 0.8 percentage points respectively. Contrary, there is the Central Denmark Region and North Denmark, where there are small quarterly increases of 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points respectively However, the residential vacancy rate in the two regions has decreased with 0.9 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared to April 2021. The residential vacancy is thus still lowest in the Capital Region, while there is a higher residential vacancy in the North Denmark Region with 6.2 percent.

In the Capital Region, there are also quarterly decreases in several areas. In Central Copenhagen, the residential vacancy decreases with 1.0 percent compared to January 2022 and with 1.8 percentage points compared to April 2021. The residential vacancy in Central Copenhagen is thus unchanged with 4.8 percent in this quarter. There are also quarterly decreases in both other City of Copenhagen and North Zealand, where the residential vacancy has decreased with 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to last quarter. The residential vacancy in other City of Copenhagen is thus 2.1 percent in this quarter, which is lower than the other cities. In comparison, the residential vacancy in Odense, Aarhus and Aalborg is 3.0, 4.5 and 5.9 percent respectively.

/ Continuously low residential vacancy in the Capital Region. /

/Decrease in Central Copenhagen. /

/ Low residential vacancy in other City of Copenhagen. /

Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Vacancy, April 2022

Economic vacancy rate

Table 4. Residential

Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics.

Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Vacancy, April 2022

Geographical overview

Copenhagen Centre

Northern Jutland Region

Mid Jutland Region

Northern Zealand

Capital Region

Triangle Area

Southern Denmark Region

Zealand Region

Western and Southern Zealand

Eastern Zealand

Copenhagen Centre

Other Copenhagen Municipal

Other Capital Region

Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics.

Note: Copenhagen Centre consists of Copenhagen inner city covering the zip codes: 900, 1000-1431, 1434-1438, 1448-1559, 1562-1609, 1611-1614 og 1631-1634.

Christiansborg Tivoli Christianshavn

Aalborg

Aarhus

Odense

Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Vacancy, April 2022

About the Market Statistics

This web report is published May 2022. Next scheduled publication is July 2022.

The portfolios have approx. 252,700 leases corresponding to an annual rental-bearing value of DKK 41bn and 36.1m m2. In comparison, the statistical base in April 2021 was 227,000 leases with an annual rental-bearing value of DKK 38,3 billion and 33,8 million m2. Measured in m2 , the statistical basis covers around 22 percent of the private residential rental market, 32 percent of the office sector and 14 percent of the retail sector.

Today, 18,638 properties* are included in the market statistics. It is the current annual rent that is included in the calculation of the economic vacancy rate. The economic vacancy rate is defined as: The sum of current annual rent in all empty leases divided by the sum of current annual rent in both rented and empty leases.

The Market Statistics is based on quarterly processed property data for rentals and vacancies within the period in question.

Compared to previous publications, the balance date has been changed from the last day of the last quarter to the first day of this quarter. This web report has thus been closed as of 01 April 2022 and is called April 2022.

The quarterly change is from January 2022 (closed as of 1 January 2022) compared to April 2022 (closed as of 1 April 2022). The annual change is from April 2021 (closed as of 01 April 2021) compared to April 2022 (closed as of 01 April 2022).

The published market data is updated and valid on the day of publication. As the market statistics are continuously updated with e.g. new historical data, there may be updates of historical data. It has been chosen not to publish data in the statistics where the basis has been evaluated not to provide valid and representative data or in combinations where only one or a few portfolios are represented.

* The number of properties include properties and parent properties. A property can include one or more buildings and one or more residences or office units. A parent property includes a property, in which there are apartments, which are registered as independent properties. For these units it is the parent properties that are counted and not each freehold apartment.

2 + 3 Ejendomme, Aberdeen Asset Management, Advice, Advodan, Akelius, Alm. Brand, ALN Holding, Andersen Partners Ejendomsadministration, Anker Bay Petersen, AP Pension, Arbejdernes Landsbank, Arkitekternes Pensionskasse, Arup & Hvidt, ATP, Bagenkop Ejendomme A/S, Balder Ejendomme, Ballegaard Gruppen, Bangs Gård A/S, Bank Lauridsen, Barfoed Group, Bellevue 16 ApS, Bendtsen ApS, Bernhard Guhle, Bernstorrfhus, Bevica Fonden, Birch Ejendomme, BladhuseneApS, Blue Vision, Bodil og Co. I/S, Bolig Data Administration, Bolig og erhvervsudlejning I/S, Boligexperten Adm. A/S, Boliggruppen, Boligstandard ApS, BoStad A/S, Brdr. Christiansens Boligudlejning, Broen Shopping, Bruno Dall, Calum A/S, Carlsbergfondet, CBRE, CEJ Ejendomsadministration, Cieslak Ejendomme, CK Holding Odense I/S, Claus Sørensen, CMNRE II FV181 PropCo ApS, CMNRE II Goose PropCo II A/S, Cobblestone, Coller Capital, Compaz Ejendomme A/S, Cosmo Ejendomme ApS, Connla Administraion, CS Pensionsfond, CW Obel Ejendomme, DADES, Danica, Dansk Administrationscenter, Danagraf A/S, Dansk Sygeplejeråd, Danske Bank, Danske Shoppingcentre, DATEA, DEAS, DEAS Invest 1, De Københavnske Ejendomsselskaber, Demant Advokater, Difko, DIKEV, DIP, DK Ejendomme, DNP Ejendomme, Domhusgaarden Ejendomsadministration, Domis Ejendomme, Dreist-Storgaard, DSB Ejendomme, Egen Vinding & Datter ApS, Ejd. Selskabet Dronning Olgas Vej 15 ApS, Ejendommen Hauchsvej 16 I/S, EjendomDanmark, Ejendomskontoret, Ejendomsselskaberne, Ejendomsselskabet af 15. maj 1895, Ejendomsselskabet Aunbøll A/S, Ejendomsselskabet NEMP, Ejendomsselskabet Thy, Ejendomsselskabet Østervold, Elverhøj Investment Group ApS, Estate Invest, Etex Ejendomme, Erhverv Aalborg, EV bolig, Fast Ejendom Danmark, Flemming Jeppsson, Flemming Olsen, Flemming Sørensen, Fokus Asset Management, Frederiksberg Fonden, Freja Ejendomsadministration, Friheden Ejendomme A/S, Færchfonden, Goldschmidt Ejendomme A/S, Grosserer Schiellerup og Hustrus Fonde, Gudbjørg og Ejnar Honorés Fond, Grønløkkevej 10, Grønnegaarden Ejendomsselskab, Hans Nielsen, HEA Ejendomme, Hegela Erhvervsudlejning, Heimstaden, Helle Duun, Hestia, Hjørnet, Home Holbæk, Hovedstadens Ejendomsadministration, Hosta Ejendomme, Humlebogruppen, Højgaard Ejendomme, Industriens Pension, Investorgruppen, Jammerbugt Kommune, Jens Garfalk, Jeudan, JJ Ejendomsadministration, Jorcks Ejendomsselskab, JØP, Kaj Pedersen, Kalkværksgrundene, Kalvebod Ejendomme, Karberghus, Kayhan Development, KEBLOH ApS, Kereby A/S, KFI Erhvervsdrivende Fond, KIRKBI, KHK’s Legat, KGV Aarhus ApS, KLP Ejendomme, Koncenton, Kramers Legat, K/S Ingolf Nielsens Vej Sønderborg, K/S Roskilde Retail Park II, Københavns Kommune, Køge Kommune, Laros, Lars Wissing, LB Forsikring, Levring & Levring,Lindhart Ejendomsadministration, Lyngby Kommune, Lægernes Pensionskasse, Lærernes Pension, M7 Real Estate ApS, Michael Westh-Jensen, Midtbyens Ejendomme, Minova, Mogens Westh-Jensen, Moltzen Administration, Mogens Nielsen, Morten Norberg,MP Pension, MOWE Holding ApS, NEMO Ejendomsadministration, Nemp Ejendomsadministration, Niam, Niels Møller, Nielsen & Nielsen Ejendomme A/S, Nordea Ejendomme, Nordea Liv og Pension, North Property Asset Management, NREP, Odense Bolig ApS, Ole Hartvig, PBU, Pears, PenSam, PensionDanmark, Pensionskassen for Farmakonomer, PFA, Pfeiffer Ejendomme ApS, PIA, Rasch-Andersen Ejendomme ApS, Rathleff Ejendomme, International, Pitzner Ejendomme, PKA, PN Ejendomme, Postbudenes Byggeforening, Probus, ProDomus, Realdania, Revisorteamet, Roskilde Fællesbageri ApS, Rødovre Centrum A/S, Sampension, SEB, Samrådets Boligselskab / Dronning Louises Stiftelse, Siersbo ApS, Skovly Ejendomme, Sofus Administration ApS, SparNord Ejendomme Aalborg, Storck Holding, Svanholt Ejendomme, SPG Omsorg DK1, Steen & Strøm, Syddan A/S, Taurus Ejendomsadministration, TDC Pensionskasse, Thisted Kommune, Thylander Gruppen Sixpack, TLK Ejendomme, TLP ApS, Tom Jensen, Topdanmark, Totalbyg, Tox Development, Tryg, T.T. Invest ApS, UBSBOLIG A/S, Unico Finans ApS, Vagner P, Valby Maskinfabrik 1ApS, Valad, Valdal Advokatfirma, VEA ApS, Vestjysk Ejendomsadministration ApS, Vestsjællandske Ejendomme ApS, Volantis A/S, VOPA Ejendomsadministration ApS, V.M. Brockhuus Ejendomme, Wagner Ejendomme, West Star Property Holding ApS, Wihlborg, Wind Administration, Øens Ejendomsadministration, Aalborg Boligadministration og Aage Larsens Boligudlejning.

This report is based on data from

Danish Property Federation

Market Statistics – Vacancy, April 2022

Figure 3. Spatial vacancy rate, April 2022

Source: The Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics. Note.: The vacancy rates for all sectors also include actual annual rent and space for other commercial and secondary spaces.

Spatial vacancy rate

Table 5. Office

Source: The Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics.

Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Vacancy, April 2022

Spatial vacancy rate

Table 6. Retail

Source: The Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics.

Spatial vacancy rate

Table 7. Industry

Spatial vacancy rate

Table 8.

Source: The Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics.

Source: The Danish Property Federation’s Market Statistics.