THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – CONSENSUS FORECAST COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK April 2016
WEB REPORT
Increased expectations for total return
Results • Good return on investment properties the next five years
• Total return is expected to be 5.8 percent • Record-breaking confidence in Industry • Best result for Odense in two years
Fine prospects A total return of 5.8 percent is expected in 2016, 2017, 2018, and during the period 2016-2020. The majority of the participants expect that there will be minor progress from 2016 to 2018. 52 percent of the participants expect an increase in total return, 19 percent believe in a decreasing total return while 29 percent expect an unchanged total return.The differences are so small that the average total return is 5.8 percent for both 2016 and 2018. Compared to last quarter, it is an increase of 0.1 percentage points in 2016 and 0.2 percentage points in 2017. The annual change in total return is 0.3 percentage points for both 2016 and 2017. 2016 and 2017 have never had better expectations before. Concerning 2016, nine quarters have been covered, and for 2017, five quarters.
2016
2017
2018
20162020
Total return
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
Quarterly change
0.1
0.2
New
New
Annual change
0.3
0.3
New
New
Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics. The average total return based on the replies is presented in the table. Total return is in percentage and shows return on investment property compared to the size of the investment in a given period. Total return consists of two types of returns: Direct return and return on value. Direct return is current net operating profit of the period divided by investments size at the beginning of the period. Return on value is the value added in the given period divided by the size of investment at beginning of period.
Increase in total return in 2015 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Two types of return are included in total return: Direct return and return on value. Direct return is current net operating profit of the period divided by investments size at the beginning of the period. Return on value is the value added in the given period divided by the size of investment at the beginning of the period. It is worth
Source: IPD Denmark Annual Property Index and the Danish Property Federation Market Statistics. Total return for investment properties. 2000 to 2015 shows the total return of IPD Denmark Annual Property Index. 2016 to 2018 shows the average of the replies from the Consensus Forecast. 50 percent of the replies lie within the blue lines.
More faith in Industry (indicator values between -100 og 100)
Capital Value April 2016
Quarterly change
Occupied space
Annual change
April 2016
Quarterly change
Market rent
Annual change
April 2015
Quarterly change
Annual change
Office
27.1
-2.9
-1.6
21.9
-4.9
4.9
14.6
-1.0
3.9
Retail
21.9
1.9
-3.7
9.4
-4.0
3.0
15.6
0.1
-1.4
Industry
18.8
11.0
11.3
10.4
1.5
7.2
4.2
0.8
9.5
Residential
29.2
-0.6
-14.5
9.4
-4.0
-4.5
21.9
-4.8
-5.8
Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics. The participants have answered: ‘very low’, ‘lower’, ‘unchanged’, ‘higher’, ‘much higher’. The answers represent a value which forms the basis for an indicator between -100 and 100. An indicator of 100 is identical to everyone having answered ‘much higher’, and -100 is identical to everyone having answered ‘very low’. An indicator of 0 indicates unchanged expectations. For example, an indicator of 18.8 is feasible by 18.8 percent of the participants answering ‘much higher’ and the remaining answers are ‘unchanged’.
Published by the Danish Property Federation