Ejendomsforeningen Danmarks markedsstatistik – forventninger, april 2017
Ejendomsforeningen Danmarks Market Statistics
April 2017
WEB REPORT CONSENSUS FORECAST
Results • Increasing expectations for total return • High expectations for office • Historically high expectations for capital value within industry • Progress for Odense, Aalborg and Aarhus
Neat total return expected In 2017 a total return of 5.9 percent is expected, which is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to last quarter and last year. In 2018 and 2019, a total return of 5.8 and 5.9 percent is expected and regarding the period 2017 – 2021 an average total return are expected to be 5.9 percent. These are still neat total returns considering the low inflation and relatively low level of financial costs. 50 percent of the participants expect a total return of between 5.4 and 6.3 percent in 2017. In February, Sadolin & Albæk has calculated the total return in 2016 to almost 10 percent for greater Copenhagen. This is higher than this year’s first consensus forecast, which was published in January 2017, where participants expected a total return in 2016 of 5.9 percent. The difference between the figures is that Sadolin & Albæk only calculate total return for greater Copenhagen, while this consensus forecast covers the whole country.
Expectations for market rent within office Market rent is expected to increase for office, industry, and residential. We see the highest expectations for market rent within office, where the expectations have never been higher. We also see expectations for increasing capital value within office, although this sector still has an economic vacancy of 11.9 percent in January 2017. This can be due to the fact that vacancy is expected to increase the most for office. Industry is the sector having increased expectations the most over the last year. The expectations for market rent within industry are at a historical high level, while there is a continuous decrease in vacancy and increase in capital value. Thus, there is a common tendency of positive developments for all four sectors.
Expectation of 5.9 percent in total return for the period 2017-2021 2017
2018
2019
2017-2021
Total return
5.9
5.8
5.9
5.9
Quarterly change
0.2
0.1
New
New
Annual change
0.2
0.0
New
New
Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics. The average total return based on the replies is presented in the table. Total return is in percentage and shows return on investment property compared to the size of the investment for a given period. Total return consists of two types of returns: Direct return and return on value. Direct return is current net operating profit of the period divided by investments size at the beginning of the period. Return on value is the value added in the given period divided by the size of investment at beginning of period. Total return is before any financial costs and before inflation.
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